Behavioural finance
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The document provides an overview of behavioral finance and the exam structure for the course. It discusses Hyman Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis, which argues that capitalism is prone to periodic financial crises and depressions. It also summarizes Irving Fisher's Debt Deflation Theory, which explains how over-indebtedness can lead to a deflationary spiral and economic depression through a chain reaction of debt liquidation, price declines, bankruptcies, and reduced economic activity.
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Deep Value and the Aquirer's Multiple by Tobias Carlisle for QuantCon 2016
Activist investors and contrarians battle for control of losing corporations by identifying undervalued companies trading well below their intrinsic value. The document discusses five main ideas: 1) Deep value strategies like contrarian investing outperform growth and quality factors. 2) Contrarians can identify mispriced stocks by going against the crowd. 3) Simple valuation models often outperform experts who overthink things. 4) The acquirer's multiple, which values companies based on earnings, is a straightforward valuation method. 5) Hedging strategies using indicators like moving averages can help reduce downside when the market declines.
Occam\'s Razor - Inflation (Sept. 2009)
This document discusses inflation and monetary policy. It begins by defining average inflation over the last 50 years as around 4% according to the Consumer Price Index. It then notes that the market currently expects future inflation to be around 2%, in line with the Federal Reserve's target. However, it expresses concern that monetary policy interventions in response to the financial crisis, which dramatically increased the monetary base, could sow the seeds for higher inflation in the future if banks begin lending out excess reserves more aggressively. Fiscal policy interactions with monetary policy are also flagged as a potential issue to monitor regarding inflation.
Occam\'s Razor on Inflation
The document discusses concerns about future inflation given recent monetary and fiscal policy actions. It provides three key reasons to be wary of inflation:
1) Monetary policy - The Fed has increased the monetary base significantly and its exit strategy from quantitative easing may be difficult. This compromises its independence.
2) Fiscal policy - The US government faces large deficits and debt levels that could put pressure on the Fed to pursue inflationary policies.
3) Interaction of policies - The Fed's actions during the financial crisis reduced its independence, making it harder to maintain low, stable inflation as fiscal pressures rise. Close monitoring of inflation is prudent given these challenges to monetary policy.
Ricardo V Lago Universityof Miami Business Forum 15 01 2009
Mesa Redonda sobre la crisis financiera internacional y las perspectivas de inversion :monedas, activos , bonos , acciones
Meltdown presentation atca full master Mike Hayward
Mike Hayward: With the help of DK, I have redrafted my Meltdown presentation to be suitable for an International Audience and it is attached below. I have already given this talk at several UK universities with more to come. It is designed multidisciplinary audiences so it is not too technical and is richly illustrated. Please feel free to use and adapt the presentation to suit your own needs and viewpoint. My name is not mentioned in the presentation. The subject is too important to claim authorship or credit.
Summary...... The global debt mountain, peak oil, population growth, resource depletion, population growth, the pension time bomb and climate change are all interconnected.
Meltdown did not occur in October 2008, but we were within 4 hours of it happening. It has only been deferred. Remember, only 3 dozen economists correctly predicted the 2008 global financial crisis, out of a profession of 20,000 members. Not one of the World politicians and Central Bankers saw the crisis coming, but all of them claim to know the remedy. The reasons for the 2008 crash have not gone away. The US housing market is still in freefall and US and European Banks are becoming increasingly insolvent, although they won't admit it. Economic growth will be stifled by rising oil prices. The bailouts are not working. World Politicians, Bankers and Economists are trying to maintain the status quo but they are losing control. Fundamentally, the real systemic causes of the crisis are rarely discussed with transparency and have not been addressed. Fractional Reserve Banking and universal public ignorance of banking practices are the cause of all the our global problems.
The collapse will happen within the next couple of years. The Eurozone or USA will most probably be the epicentre. The interconnectivity of the financial system means we will all be affected. What happens next after the collapse is impossible to predict. History is replete with examples but not on a Global scale. Massive political unrest will prevail. There will be a rise in popularity of extreme left and right political parties.
ALTERNATIVES TO THE F E D Bennett T. McCallumI must b.docx
ALTERNATIVES TO THE F E D ?
Bennett T. McCallum
I must begin by saying that I have been extremely disappointed—
the word "appalled" may be more accurate—by several develop-
ments over the last two years involving tlie Federal Reserve. It was,
I believe, appropriate that the Fed would respond widi expansionary
monetary policy in the face of a major macroeconomic downtum,
which it did. But it did not have to do so by means of operations tliat
incorporated major excursions into credit policy, as weU as monetary
policy, and thereby into the unauthorized exercise of fiscal policy. ̂ By
engaging in such operations on a very large sctile, die Fed's actions
are iJmost certain to have detrimental effects on tlie Fed's independ-
ence—and thereby on its resulting ability to focus attention on what
shotild be its principal objective, namely, price level stability.
Furthermore, tlie Fed has not been moving quickly—if at all—to
explain and correct this situation.
AH in aU, die recent experience has had flie effect of moving the
Fed away from die type of policy behavior tliat niixinstream academic
analysts have been promoting over tlie past 15 years—namely, an
activist but mle-based monetary stabilization policy fliat emphasizes
Catojounwl, Vol. 30, No. 3 (Fall 2010). Copyright © Cato Institute. All rights
reserved.
Bennett T. McCiilhtin is Professor of Econotnics at Carnegie Mellon University.
He thanks Marvin Coodfriend for helpful cotntnents.
'Coodfriend and McCallum (2009) distinguish between pure monetary policy
(changes in base money by central bank purchase or sale of Treasury securities),
pttre credit policy (changes in the cotnposition of central bank assets witli no
change in base tnoney), and ititerest-on-reserves policy (with no balance sheet
changes). Since the Fed returns to the Treasury the interest received on the
Treasury securities that it holds, it is the case that when the Fed sells Treasuries
to fund expansionary credit policy the net results are the satne as if the Treasury
fttianced credit extensions by selling its securities to (i.e., borrowing from) the
public.
439
CATO JOURNAL
die avoidance of significant inflation while also avoiding deflation. In
saying this, I do recognize that the term "inflation targeting" has been
gradually corrupted so as to pemiit excessive aspects of "fine tuning"
relating to output and employment levels, but by and large I believe
that the academic literature has been mosdy constructive and that
much ofthe commentary tending to discredit it on the basis of recent
events has done so mistakenly.
Monetary Policy and Exchange Rates
In previous writings, I have argued that monetary policy and
exchange rate policy are linked togedier so intimately that diey
should be considered as two sides of the same coin. From that per-
spective, it seems an unfortunate anachronism that official exchange-
rate responsibility is assigned to the Treasury or Finance Ministry in
many economies, including the United.
Keynes’s Analysis of Capitalist DepressionsThroughout the remain
Keynes’s Analysis of Capitalist Depressions
Throughout the remainder of the General Theory, Keynes consistently assumed that the rate of utilization of the productive capacity of physical capital declined sharply in times of depression, and the number of employed workers declined sharply as well. Keynes’s theory was addressed to those obvious realities of depression in an insightful and coherent manner. But because it is an equally obvious fact of capitalist depressions that the real wages of workers did not increase when employment decreased, Keynes’s adherence to the marginal productivity theory that wages were always equal to the workers’ marginal productivity contradicted the rest of his theory.
As we have frequently pointed out in this book, the contradictions in a great thinker’s theory (and Keynes was a logician of the first order) give the best insights into the thinker’s ideological orientation. Keynes wished to furnish capitalist governments with theoretical insights that would help to save capitalism. In doing so, it was necessary for him to abandon some tenets of neoclassical theory. But, as we will see, he wanted to retain as much neoclassical ideology as possible. So he adhered to both the marginal productivity theory of distribution and the belief that the free market efficiently allocated resources (once full employment was attained), despite the fact that both these tenets of neoclassical ideology were logically tied to the belief that the free market automatically created a full employment, Pareto optimal situation. Even with theorists having the extraordinary logical ability of Keynes, ideology very frequently wins out over logic.
Keynes rejected the notion that if a capitalist economy started from a situation of full employment, then the rate of interest would automatically equate saving and investment and thus keep aggregate demand equal to aggregate supply. His major departures from the doctrines that comprised the neoclassical theory of automaticity were twofold: First, although he accepted the neoclassical notion that saving was influenced by the rate of interest, he insisted that the level of aggregate income was a far more important influence on the amount of saving than was the rate of interest. Second, he argued that saving and investment did not determine the rate of interest. The interest rate was a price that equalized the demand and supply of money—something quite different from (although not unrelated to) investment and saving.
These were very important departures indeed, because, although Keynes was unaware of it, they destroyed not only the neoclassical theory of the automaticity of the market but also the two other pillars of neoclassical ideology—the marginal productivity theory of distribution and the theory that a free, competitive market will result in a Pareto optimal allocation of resources. Keynes wanted to achieve the first result (the destruction of the belief in the automaticity of the market) but ...
The_Neoclassical_Keynesian_Synthesis.ppt
The document discusses the neoclassical response to Keynes' critique, known as the neoclassical synthesis. It acknowledges some of Keynes' contributions could be incorporated into neoclassical theory, including the multiplier effect and money playing a central role. The neoclassical synthesis used the real balance effect arguments to show that if wages, prices, and interest rates are flexible, the economy will tend towards full employment in the long run. However, Keynes replied that the real balance effect arguments ignore factors like the value of debt and expectations that complicate whether deflation will actually increase spending. Empirical evidence, like the Great Depression, also did not support the real balance effect claims.
Economic and financial crises a fundamental analysis from Islamic financial...
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Econ635ukpres2
This document discusses bubbles in economics, the role of central banks like the Federal Reserve in managing bubbles, and debates around regulating versus deregulating financial markets. It notes that bubbles involve trading assets at inflated prices and post-bubble economies are difficult to manage. While some deny bubbles occur, others think they stem from price coordination or social norms. Regulating financial markets could limit risky behavior but models would need to accurately map interlinkages, while deregulation allows economic freedom but risks bubbles. The Federal Reserve uses tools like adjusting interest rates and quantitative easing to stimulate or constrain the economy as needed to prevent overheating or recession.
Econ635 uk pres
This document discusses bubbles in economics, the role of central banks like the Federal Reserve in managing bubbles, and debates around regulating versus deregulating financial markets. It notes that bubbles occur when trade involves assets valued considerably above intrinsic values. After bubbles burst, economies are difficult to manage. The document outlines different schools of thought on using macroprudential tools and regulations versus allowing free markets. It also discusses the challenges of regulating complex modern financial systems and removing monetary stimulus like quantitative easing once economies recover.
Monetarist.pptx
Milton Friedman was the major founder and intellectual force behind monetarism. Monetarism holds that the money supply is the dominant influence on nominal income and price levels in the short run. It believes that stable growth in the money supply is crucial for economic stability. Friedman proposed a constant money growth rule for monetary policy. Monetarism sees private markets as inherently stable and views instability as caused by government policies. It is skeptical of activist policies and supports rules or targets for long-run monetary growth.
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-- June 2024 is National Volunteer Month --
Check out our June display of books on voluntary organisations
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Behavioural finance
- 15. The Wall Street Crash To below 42 at its trough With rallies that implied “the worst is over…” By the final end, market was down 89% from its peak 25 years to recover From 382 at its peak in less than 3 years