Are you likely to be hit by a drone? (by Anders La Cour-Harbo)
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At TUS Nordics 2017, Anders La Cour-Harbo gave the presentation ‘Are you likely to be hit by a drone?’ in our Security & Safety track, on Thursday 12 October 2017.
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• During the 1920s and 1930s, advancements in air transport saw the first commercial airliner, the Douglas DC-3, transport passengers safely.
When the Second World War was taking place, most cities were building airports, and the popularity of air transport increased after the war
• Air transport over the years has come to be referred to as the safest way to travel. During the Second World War, fatalities by aircraft crash increased sharply. After the war, approximately 300 crashes were reported per year until 1980. That is equivalent to about 2000 deaths per year.
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Luxury or Liability
Drones are becoming more popular for both personal and commercial use, but their increasing presence also poses risks to commercial aviation safety. The director of IATA called drones a "real and growing threat" to airplanes and cited several near-misses between drones and airliners. While companies like Amazon see opportunities in drone delivery services, regulators are concerned about drones interfering with air traffic, especially around airports. Many countries are establishing rules for drone use, such as registration requirements, but there are disagreements over how much regulation is needed versus restricting innovation. The article concludes that rules are needed to allow drone usage while preventing interference with aviation to achieve a balance of innovation and safety.
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Use of UAS for Domestic Border Security Operations in the United States
Student no. 3
9 November 2019
The use of UAS and or UAV for ISR has been in existence since the 19th century.U.S CBP agency is no exception since it has various assets in its arsenal of ISR to protect the U.S borders, with one example being the use of UAS. The one safety concern for the public is the integration of UAS into the domestic airspace (Cho, 2014).
Summary
The CBP has an arsenal of ISR assets to use to protect our borders from fixed-wing aircraft like the Beechcraft King Air Series 200 and C-12C, Cessna C-206/210 and C-55 Citation, to rotary-wing aircraft like the Airbus AS350 A-Star, Bell UH-1H Huey II, Sikorsky UH-60, to marine vessels like 39-foot Interim Midnight Express, 33-foot SAFE Boat, a Tethered Aerostat Radar System, and UAS MQ-9B Predator along with small unmanned aerial systems (sUAS) to name a few, but what has the public concerned is the unmanned aerial systems of the MQ-9B Predator and sUAS (Air and Marine Operations Assets, 2019). Since most of these assets are manned aircraft or vessels which are piloted from within, with the exception of the Tethered Aerostat which is stationary balloon, the MQ-9B Predator and sUAS are systems that are pilotless in the sense that the pilot is flying it form the ground far away from it. This leads to concerns of the safety aspects of flying this UAS along with other aircraft in the NAS.
Issue/Prob Statement
The CBP currently has a fleet of nine MQ-9 Predator B’s that are on regular surveillance missions looking for illegal activity crossing the Southern border (Bier & Feeney, 2018) The MQ-9B Predator, manufactured by General Atomics Aeronautical systems, is used for its vast operational capabilities, unique payload, mission flexibility, and that it can be fitted with new applications along with an excellent safety and performance record with other agencies (Unmanned Aircraft System, 2019).
Significance of Issue
The CBP have recently completed testing the use of sUAS and are currently implementing them for operational use in the field to complement their current inventory of manned and large UAS aircraft.The UTM still in its infancy of being tested and developed it brings up another safety issue with smaller unmanned aerial systems or vehicles being operated in the same airspace as low flying aircraft.
Significance of Issue
The United States, according to a CRS Report for Congress, has approximately 19,937.4 miles of International boundaries that the CBP covers on a day to day basis (Beaver, 2006). The extended range and endurance of these UASs may reduce the burdens on human resources at the borders. Like all other borders, the United States requires 24-hour surveillance of its borders on land and on our coastline.
Research and Development
The use of sUAS in the field in place of the large UAS MQ-9B Predator has given some additional adva ...
Regulatory reforms for civil applications of UAVs
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The Future Of Battlefield Ma Vs
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Creating a buzz
With drone sales set to rise more than
80 per cent this year, to approach
US$500 million, Euroasia Industry
explores some of the most prospective
applications across the commercial
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Navigation Tools and Equipment and How They Have Improved Aviation Safety
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SAFETY MEASURES FOR TABLE-TOP RUNWAY OF MANGALORE AIRPORT
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Are you likely to be hit by a drone? (by Anders La Cour-Harbo)
- 1. ARE YOU LIKELY TO BE HIT BY A DRONE? AND KILLED … OCTOBER, 2017 Anders la Cour-Harbo Associate Professor Manager of Drone Research Lab DRONE RESEARCH LAB
- 2. Aviation Commercia l 73 Offshore 9 Aerial work 20 Non- commercial 94 Balloons 2 Gliders 26 RPAS 0 Source: EASA Annual Safety Review 2016 Average number of deaths in aviation in Europe 2005-2015
- 3. Drone target values General aviation fatalities US & EURO: Commercial aviation fatalities US & EURO: Drones expected recommendation EURO: 10-5 fatalities per flight hour 10-7 fatalities per flight hour 10-6 fatalities per flight hour Max 1 fatality per 1.000.000 drone flight hours for each single drone flight
- 4. Example Probability of fatality – made simple Probability of impacting a person Person density – area of person Probability of fatal injury from impact Speed – mass – angle – front area Probability of fatality per flight hour Preferably < 10-6 Probability of loss of control Wing breaks, loss of power, autopilot haywire Probability of crash Ballistic – uncontrolled glide – fly away 1/100 h 20% 0.1% 50% = 10-6
- 6. Modeling risk of ground fatalities – example flight Penguin C aircraft Transport flight from Kolding to Aalborg, 180 km
- 7. Modeling risk of ground fatalities – example flight
- 8. Modeling risk of ground fatalities – example flight Low population density High population density
- 9. Modeling risk of ground fatalities – descent types Fly-away Uncontrolled glide Parachute descent Ballistic descent
- 10. Modeling risk of ground fatalities – descent types Flyaway
- 11. Modeling risk of ground fatalities – assumptions
- 12. Modeling risk of ground fatalities – fatalities per flight hour
- 13. Modeling risk of ground fatalities – results ALL the gory details are presented in article: [1] la Cour-Harbo. Quantifying ground impact fatality rate for small unmanned aircraft. Submitted to Journal of Intelligent and Robotic Systems, 2017. [2] la Cour-Harbo. Ground impact probability distribution for small unmanned aircraft in ballistic descent. Submitted to Reliability Engineering and Safety Analysis, 2017. [3] la Cour-Harbo, Quantifying risk of ground impact fatalities of power line inspection BVLOS flight with small unmanned aircraft. IEEE Intl. Conference of Unmanned Aircraft Systems, Miami, 2017.
- 14. ASSURE project Human drone impact
- 15. ASSURE project Drone in jet engine
- 16. Drone aircraft impact Douglas Cairns, Montana State University, US Ian Horsfall, Cranfield University, UK
- 17. Midair collision probability – coming in Jan 2018 𝑓 = 4𝑟𝑛𝑇𝑣 𝐺 𝑟 Frequency of “impact” (safety zones intersect) when all are flying at same altitude n Number of GA aircraft T Fraction of time airborne (h/year) v Speed of GA aircraft G Size of region for which n applies 𝑓 = 4 ∙ 100 ∙ 1500 ∙ 250 8760 ∙ 50 43,100,000,000 ∙ 3600 = 0.072 𝑣 Giving one impact per 14 flight hours. [4] la Cour-Harbo, Bertrand, Schiøler. Modelling probability of impact between general aviation and small unmanned aircraft. Working paper. Submission to Risk Analysis.
- 18. SafeEye – IFD project Overall principle of SafeEye Supervise the flight and automatically assist in emergencies.
- 19. Regulation – Europe – 2019-ish
- 20. Regulation – Europe – 2019-ish
- 21. Regulation – Europe – 2019-ish [5] la Cour-Harbo. The value of step-by-step risk assessment. Working paper. Submission to Risk Analysis 2018.
- 22. DRONE RESEARCH LAB ARE YOU LIKELY TO BE HIT BY A DRONE? Anders la Cour-Harbo alc@es.aau.dk