2. “Revolution is impossible until it is inevitable” –
Leon Trotsky
• Key differences/similarities in Revolutions in Tunisia with the fall of
Ben Ali Regime and Egypt with the fall of Hosni Mubarak Regime.
• Key factors leading up to the revolutions
• Key factors to success/failure transitioning from authoritarian regimes
to democracy.
3. Modern Tunisia (1891-present) Brief History
• French protectorate until
1956
• Habib Ali Bourguiba
“president for life”
Tunisia a republic in 1957
• Ousted in “medical” coup
1987 by Zine el-Albedin
Ben Ali
4. Modern Egypt (1888-present) Brief History
• British
Protectorate
until 1953
• 1956-Gamal
Abdel Nasser
• 1970-Anwar
Sadat
• 1981- Hosni
Mubarak
5. Internal Conditions of a State
Critical Factors in Revolution:
• Legitimacy issue
• Repression
• State Predation
• Dignity
• Dignity at Int. Level- Egypt
6. Socioeconomic conditions: Tunisia
• Extreme regional disparities
• Interior neglect
• High Unemployment in youth 2009-30% for University grads 45%
• General unemployment 14%
• 2008-2010, average household spent 36% income on food
7. Socioeconomic conditions: Egypt
• High inflation, Cost of Living
• 40% lived below $2 a day
• Public sector destroyed
• Currency steadily de-valuing
• Reduction on food subsidies 40% income spent on food
• Ranked 90th in the world for income disparity
8. Youth Bulges/Social Media- Generation of
educated socially aware youth
• Social Media/Modern technology allowed them to become
aware of their rights, less compliant than earlier
generations. Gave them a platform to organize (esp. Egypt)
9. The “Spark” that started in all: Mohamed
Bouazizi
Dec. 17th, 2011 local street vendor
sets himself on fire out of desperation.
Weeks later he died, sparking outrage
Not only in Tunisia, but throughout the
entire Arab world, who could relate to
Bouazizi’s feeling of utter hopelessness.
10. Tunisians take to the streets in protest. Starting in
rural cities such as Sid Bouzid and Gafsa.
Protest spread to every corner of the
country, eventually reaching the
capitol, Tunis.
11. • Ben Ali ordered police to fire at will and violence ensued for
weeks as protestors fought back.
• “fought with a rock in one hand and camera in the other”
• When they reached Tunis violence reached its peak.
• Ben Ali ordered the military to fire on protestors
• **Military refused, Jan 14th Ben Ali fled.
12. Military sided with Revolutionaries (Ben Ali’s
last hope)
• Since Bourguiba Tunisian
army always excluded
from politics
• Scarcely funded, served as
border protection
• Had no interest in survival
of regime.
• Gen. Richid Ammar
refused to deploy troops
when Ben Ali’s security
forces could not suppress
protestors.
13. First Time in History Arab Dictator falls without
a Coup d’etat
14. Victory for the People- Inspired by the events in
Tunisia, Egyptian citizens mobilize against Mubarak
15. January 25th Egyptians gathered to protest, calling
for an end to Mubarak’s 30-year-old regime
Mass demonstrations break out in Major Cities, most notably Cairo’s central
Tahir (Liberation Square)
16. Protestors and Mubarak’s Security forces
violently clash in the streets for weeks.
Human Rights Watch collected
figures from doctors in 8
hospitals from Jan 28th-Feb
11th: 302 reported deaths
17. Similar to Tunisia- brutal government
crackdown follows.
• Protestors violently clashed with Security Forces of the regime and NPD
supporters
• Mubarak unleashes extreme violence on Jan. 28th, then abruptly withdraws all
police forces.
• Orders Military into streets
• Jan. 31-Desperately makes concessions
• Mubarak resists leaving
• Supreme Council of armed forces (SCAF) step in, forcing his resignation
• Feb. 11 “Friday of Departure”
• SCAF led by Gen. Tantawi take control, dissolve leg., suspend consti
18. The Supreme Council of Armed Forces (SCAF)
turn their back on Mubarak
• Major surprise, as they have stake in regimes
survival (unlike Tunisian Military)
• SCAF is highly politicized, involved in many
economic ventures earning profit.
• Aid from US 3 billion dollars annually.
• When it came down to it they sided with the
revolutionaries.
19. Possible SCAF reasons for dissent:
• Gamal Mubarak succession- threat to economic interests
• Resented rising power of other Security Agencies
• General concern for citizens
• Generals feared a split in military
• Maintain legitimacy
20. Bad guys are gone, now what?
Mubarak in Jail Ben Ali flees to Saudi Arabia
-Both countries successfully ousted longstanding autocratic leaders
-Both are endowed with strong and effective states
-Both enjoy coherent and unified sense of national identity
-Then why is Tunisia successfully transitioning to democracy, while Egypt
is turning back to authoritarian rule?
21. Fast Forward to Post-Revolution Elections: Why
Tunisia has succeeded(so far) and Egypt has failed
22. Most Conspicuous Difference Between Tunisia
and Egypt: Socio-Economic Standing
• Tunisia has:
1. Greater wealth (per capita basis)
2. Higher level of urbanization
3. Larger middle class
4. Higher rate of literacy
-superior over Egypt in standard indices
of “Modernization”
-*does not FULLY explainin divergent
political outcomes*
-Correlation between Economic dev.
and democracy
-NO economic determinism
governing democratic transition
Ex. India, Mongolia-
Chile, Argentina
23. Factors: to explain divergent paths Tunisia and
Egypt have taken transitioning to democracy
• Institutional endowment: Military
• Civil Society
• Leadership/norms/prefernences/ideas
• Luck
• Timing
• International Factors- IMF, World Bank, EU, US etc..
24. Institutional Endowment: Military
• Pivotal in explaining different trajectories
after revolution
• TUNISIA: small, politically inexperienced.
Over time dev. Institutional culture accepting
civilian supremacy.
• EGYPT: Large, long history of political
engagement. Institutional culture ambivalent
to civilian supremacy. Susceptibility to
authoritarian temptation very strong.
25. Civil Society Vs
• Tunisia: central role in pushing country in dem. direction.
1. Watchdog function, keeping tabs on regime’s performance, ensuring it
didn’t stray from dem. Ideals
2. Facilitated dialogue/compromise across political divides ( esp. UGTT)
-key to getting liberal constitution ratified 2013
Egypt: did not have same level of organization to foster process.
Many human rights org. did not have level of influence in overseeing
behavior of gov. or facilitating dialogue between opposition
-MB most org. force in civil society.
26. Leadership
• Leaders and their normative preferences/ideas- crucial in explaining
different paths taken by Tunisia and Egypt:
• TUNISIA: clear that apolitical elite, secular and Islamist, committed to
dem. Institutions.
• EGYPT: not so much..Non-Islamist feared domination by Islamist in
popular elections so leaned toward prolonging period of
“guardianship” under military. HCC
27. For lack of a better term: Luck
• Both countries 1st elections were surprising/random.
• Pretty much a crap shoot how it would go.
• TUNISIA: over 100 parties competing- people were baffled by choices
lacked strong policy pref.- Ennadha 37%, no majority founded
• “random” outcome resulted in “luck”- Coalition of parties
(secular/Islamic) had to work together in order to govern.
• Electoral results fostered accommodation and compromise
28. Cont..
• Egypt: Strong showing of Salafis took 25% seats in parliament, MB
45%
• MB being leading party had less incentive to reach out to non-
Islamists constituents while governing.
• Non-Islamist felt excluded and threatened
• “Luck” regarding presidential elections: Morsi won by 3.5% over
Ahmed Shafiq. (Military men couldn’t vote)
29. Timing
• Tunisia faced critical choice in ratifying liberal constitution several
months after Egyptian Military ejected MB.
• Meant Ennahda could “learn” from Egyptian experience.
• Served as lesson to Ennahda leadership in Tunisia
• Persuaded party’s elite to make compromises they resisted the year
prior.
30. International Factors
• Tunisia- IMF, World Bank, US, EU- all held concerted carrots and sticks
over regime, just as it was deciding the constitution
Nudged them in the right direction.
Egypt- Promise of financial bailout by Saudi Arabia linked directly to
repressing the MB and reverting back to authoritarian rule.
31. Conclusion
• Both Tunisia and Egypt successfully expelled leaders by similar means
backed by similar grievances
• Tunisia ultimately transitioned into democracy relatively smoothly
thanks to a number of factors
• Although Egypt’s revolution was more organized and had more media
coverage- It’s steadily regressing back to authoritarian rule
• Mainly due to radical Islam, failure to compromise, and a highly politicized
military.
Editor's Notes
*organization, online forums, opposition groups already in place since ‘04
