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- 1. Prospects of Global Nuclear Power Development Ukrainian Nuclear Forum-2012 Andrii Gritsevskyi Planning and Economic Studies Section IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency
- 2. World Electricity Production Mix 2010 about 2% 13.5% 18% Thermal Hydro Nuclear Renewables 67% IAEA Source: RDS-1 2011
- 3. Nuclear share of electricity (2010) IAEA Source: RDS-2 2011
- 4. Current status: March 2012 In operation 436 nuclear power reactors [370 GW] • USA 104 • France 58 • Japan 50 • Russia 33 • S. Korea 23 IAEA Source: PRIS
- 5. Operational Nuclear Power Reactors IAEA
- 6. Power Reactor Information System IAEA
- 7. Current status: March 2011 Under Construction 63 nuclear power reactors • China 26 • Russia 10 • India 7 • Korea, Rep. 3 • Bulgaria, Japan, Pakistan, Slovakia Ukraine 2 IAEA Source: PRIS
- 8. Reference Data Series No. 1 Reference Data Series No. 1 (RDS-1) is an annual publication containing estimates of energy, electricity and nuclear power trends up to the year 2050. • 31 editions – 31+ years of experience • Major improvements over time • 10 figures and 14 tables • Referenced in about 1200 publications http://www-pub.iaea.org/books/IAEABooks/8786/ Energy-Electricity-and-Nuclear-Power-Estimates-for-the-Period-up-to-2050-2011-Edition IAEA
- 9. Nuclear Projections • Projections of future energy and electricity demand and the role of nuclear power are presented as low and high estimates encompassing the inherent uncertainties involved in projecting trends. • The RDS-1 estimates should be viewed as very general growth trends whose validity must be constantly subjected to critical review. IAEA
- 10. Nuclear Power Development in Different Regions 500 500 400 400 Western Europe Eastern Europe 300 300 GW(e) GW(e) 500 200 200 200 170 141 400 123 126 108 North America 93 83 80 82 80 100 60 100 66 47 300 GW(e) 0 0 200 200 2010 2020 Year 2030 2050 2010 2020 Year 2030 2050 149 119 126 120 500 114 111 500 450 100 400 400 0 Far East 2010 2020 Year 2030 2050 300 GW(e) 300 Middle East & South Asia 255 GW(e) 220 200 180 140 200 164 130 100 81 53 50 100 500 30 13 22 5 500 0 400 0 Latin America 2010 2020 Year 2030 2050 500 2010 2020 Year 2030 2050 400 300 Africa GW(e) 400 300 GW(e) 200 300 South East Asia & the Pacific GW(e) 200 100 60 200 9 18 15 4 6 6 100 48 0 16 10 2010 2020 Year 2030 2050 2 2 2 5 100 48 0 IAEA 2010 2020 Year 2030 2050 0 6 5 2010 2020 Year 2030 2050
- 11. IAEA – LOW Projection 900 800 700 600 history GW(e) 2005 500 2006 2007 400 2008 2009 300 2010 2011 200 100 IAEA 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
- 12. IAEA – HIGH Projection 900 800 700 600 history GW(e) 2005 500 2006 2007 400 2008 2009 300 2010 2011 200 100 IAEA 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
- 13. IEA World Energy Outlook 2011: Nuclear power capacity in the Low Nuclear Case Source, WEO 2011, IEA IAEA
- 14. Statement to Fifty-Fifth Regular Session of IAEA General Conference 2011 “Following the Fukushima Daiichi accident, there was speculation that the expansion in interest in nuclear power seen in recent years could come to an end. However, it is clear that there will, in fact, be continuous and significant growth in the use of nuclear power in the next two decades, although at a slower rate than in our previous projections.” IAEA
- 15. Introductory Statement to Board of Governors (1) “… the Agency has updated its projections concerning the outlook for nuclear power in the wake of the Fukushima Daiichi accident. We now expect the number of operating nuclear reactors in the world to increase by about 90 by 2030, in our low projection, or by around 350, in our high projection, compared to the current total of 432 reactors.” IAEA
- 16. Introductory Statement to Board of Governors (2) “Most of the growth is still expected to occur in countries that already have operating nuclear power plants, especially in Asia. China and India will remain the main centres of expansion and their nuclear power capacities by 2030 are expected to be as projected before the accident, after a temporary period of slower growth.” IAEA
- 17. Introductory Statement to Board of Governors (3) “The projected slowdown in global growth reflects an accelerated phase-out of nuclear power in Germany, some immediate shutdowns and a government review of the planned expansion in Japan, and temporary delays in expansion in several other countries.” IAEA
- 18. Introductory Statement to Board of Governors (4) “In countries considering introducing nuclear power, interest remains strong, despite Fukushima Daiichi. Most of these countries are proceeding with plans to add nuclear power to their energy mix, although a few countries have cancelled or revised their plans, while others have taken a 'wait and see' approach.” IAEA
- 19. Statement to Fifty-Fifth Regular Session of IAEA General Conference 2011 “The factors that contributed to increasing interest in nuclear power before the Fukushima Daiichi accident have not changed: these include increasing global demand for energy, as well as concerns about climate change, volatile fossil fuel prices and security of energy supply.” IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano IAEA
- 20. Thank you IAEA 20
Editor's Notes
- The low case represents expectations about the future if current trends continued and there were few changes in policies affecting nuclear power other than those already in the pipeline. This case was explicitly designed to produce a ‘conservative but plausible’ set of projections. Additionally, the low case did not automatically assume that targets for nuclear power growth in a particular country would necessarily be achieved. These assumptions are relaxed in the high case.The high case projections are much more optimistic, but still plausible and technically feasible. The high case assumes that the current financial and economic crises will be overcome in the not so distant future and past rates of economic growth and electricity demand, especially in the Far East, would essentially resume. In addition, the high case assumes the implementation of stringent policies globally targeted at mitigating climate change. Developing the 2011 nuclear power projections posed a considerable challenge. First the financial and economic crises that started in 2008 have not been overcome in many regions. Second, the Fukushima-Daiichi accident and its likely impact on future nuclear power development is difficult to foresee. The accident was a tragedy for the people affected and seriously undermined public confidence in the safety of nuclear power. A number of countries announced reviews of their programmes, some took steps toward phasing out nuclear power entirely, and others re-emphasized their expansion plans. Third, a new international environmental agreement on the regulation of greenhouse gases replacing the Kyoto protocol that would make the climate benefits of nuclear energy financially visible to investors is still being negotiated.