Presentation at TAG Government Technology, Sept 2015, Atlanta, GA

1. Big Data
Opportunities/Challenges &
Use Cases
Péter Molnár
pmolnar@atlantapolicefoundation.org

2. 2

3. 3
Platform for best practices development
Single point of contact for collaboration
WCC
Beltline
Buckhead Atlanta
Midtown Blue
APF
Innovation
Center
APD
City Departments
Private Sector
Collaborators
Hardware developers
Software developers
Service providers
Inventors/Start-ups
LEAs
Universities
Government agencies CDC
DHS
Public safety outcomes
Funding (grants, fees, donations)
Access to best in class technologies
Shaping policing innovation
Best Practices
Platform for innovation
Commercialization
First adopter
Domain-relevance
APS
FBI/GBI
Physical infrastructure
Analytics services
Data and video
Policing practices
Underground University campuses
Watershed
Federal LEAs
State LEAs
Academics
City of AtlantaMARTA
GA DOT
FEMA/GEMA
Atlanta Police Foundation
Technology Innovation Center

4. Current Record Management
Systems are not designed for
Analytics…
• Inaccurate data entry
• Incomprehensible and data base schema
without integrity check
• Incomplete records
• Data silos

5. APD-ICIS

6. APD ICIS Record Management System
• 208 tables, a with more than 5,800 fields.
• Primary and foreign keys may not always have the same name.
• Many fields that may have been intended for numeric values allow
free text entry.
• RMS produces duplicate entries with different key values.

7. 7 day 7 day 7 day 28 day 28 day 28 day YTD YTD 1 Year YTD YTD YTD YTD
2015 2014 % Chg. 2015 2014 % Chg. 2015 2014 % Chg. 2013 % Chg. 2009 % Chg.
OFFENSES
Murder 1 1 0% 1 5 -80% 58 52 12% 52 12% 57 2%
Rape 2 2 0% 12 10 20% 98 87 13% 66 48% 75 31%
Robbery 40 43 -7% 168 176 -5% 1,403 1,459 -4% 1,536 -9% 1,636 -14%
Agg. Assault 48 48 0% 199 208 -4% 1,482 1,483 0% 1,513 -2% 1,808 -18%
Burglary 93 102 -9% 325 429 -24% 3,015 3,423 -12% 3,914 -23% 6,053 -50%
Larceny / From Auto 229 172 33% 810 720 13% 6,081 5,855 4% 6,014 1% 7,200 -16%
Larceny / Other 188 153 23% 637 621 3% 4,631 4,682 -1% 5,335 -13% 5,565 -17%
Auto Theft 90 71 27% 382 277 38% 3,003 2,651 13% 3,103 -3% 3,948 -24%
TOTAL PART I OFFENSES 691 592 17% 2,534 2,446 4% 19,771 19,692 0% 21,533 -8% 26,342 -25%
# of Shooting Incidents 6 7 -14% 28 34 -18% 271 239 13% 221 23% 233 16%
# of Shooting Victims 6 7 -14% 29 41 -29% 317 274 16% 249 27% 263 21%
Firearms Seized 32 32 0% 121 145 -17% 1,159 1,106 5% 1,106 5% 1,058 10%
Part I Firearm Crime 56 61 -8% 228 227 0% 1,885 1,810 4% 1,774 6% 1,921 -2%
Part I Domestic Crime 19 13 46% 67 68 -1% 474 474 0% 464 2% 592 -20%
ARRESTS
Murder (Clear-ups) 1 1 0% 3 5 -40% 47 31 52% 37 27% 46 2%
Rape (Clear-ups) 2 2 0% 12 6 100% 64 55 16% 54 19% 49 31%
Robbery 7 8 -13% 29 36 -19% 302 267 13% 267 13% 231 31%
Agg. Assault 14 32 -56% 48 93 -48% 554 566 -2% 586 -5% 601 -8%
Burglary 7 17 -59% 25 36 -31% 237 325 -27% 339 -30% 438 -46%
Larceny / From Auto 8 2 300% 13 21 -38% 185 160 16% 205 -10% 225 -18%
Larceny / Other 68 53 28% 215 214 0% 1,835 1,962 -6% 1,882 -2% 2,396 -23%
Auto Theft 6 6 0% 27 22 23% 244 249 -2% 232 5% 525 -54%
TOTAL PART I ARRESTS 113 121 -7% 372 433 -14% 3,468 3,615 -4% 3,602 -4% 4,511 -23%
Narcotics Arrests 80 113 -29% 319 490 -35% 3,267 3,668 -11% 3,386 -4% 4,896 -33%
Other Part II Arrests 182 162 12% 692 646 7% 6,120 5,875 4% 6,162 -1% 6,686 -8%
Quality of Life Arrests 226 233 -3% 896 886 1% 6,975 7,302 -4% 8,453 -17% 9,730 -28%
Traffic Arrests 121 151 -20% 452 639 -29% 5,087 5,717 -11% 5,551 -8% 3,072 66%
Warrant Arrests 45 73 -38% 137 243 -44% 1,675 2,244 -25% 2,223 -25% 2,284 -27%
TOTAL ALL ARRESTS 767 853 -10% 2,868 3,337 -14% 26,592 28,421 -6% 29,377 -9% 31,179 -15%
ACTIVITY SECTION
Recovered Stolen Autos 69 83 -17% 301 270 11% 2,547 2,325 10% 2,249 13% 2,448 4%
Auto Theft Attempts 11 16 -31% 58 39 49% 648 572 13% 795 -18% 803 -19%
Curfew Violations 7 11 -36% 24 29 -17% 309 319 -3% 494 -37% 436 -29%
Truancy Violations 69 43 60% 196 154 27% 893 831 7% 1,137 -21% 250 257%
Traffic Violations 3,806 3,984 -4% 13,947 16,069 -13% 132,323 128,380 3% 107,802 23% 73,834 79%
Parking / Winnipegs 131 236 -44% 692 1,104 -37% 7,644 10,076 -24% 9,380 -19% 14,707 -48%
Complaints Against Police 21 19 11% 69 55 25% 440 470 -6% 430 2% 264 67%
Traffic Light Camera (TLC) 0 0 NA 0 0 NA 0 0 NA 2,867 -100% 20,622 -100%
% of Auto Thefts that are Attempts 12% 23% -- 15% 14% -- 22% 22% -- 26% -- 20% --
*For Official APD Crime Statistics, please consult FBI Uniform Crime Report (UCR): http://www.atlantapd.org/uniformcrimereports.aspx Source: all ICIS incidents on file
*Management Stats Only*
*C I T Y W I D E*
ATLANTA POLICE DEPARTMENT WEEKLY COBRA REPORT
Saturday 08/29/15 24:00Sunday 08/23/15 00:01 toWeek: # 35
Commander: Chief G. Turner Asst Commander: Asst Chief S. Jones

8. Murder
Rape
Robbery
Agg Assault
Burglary
Larceny From Auto
Other Larceny
Auto Theft
7 - Day
2015 2014 % Chg
28 - Day
2015 2014 % Chg 2013 % Chg 2009 % Chg
YTD YTDYTD
2015 2014 % Chg
0
1
29
30
45
159
110
80
1
3
30
34
82
179
107
60
8
19
150
178
364
774
561
378
8
11
160
171
400
761
512
313
42
73
890
933
2,006
3,826
2,926
1,917
31
58
915
928
2,244
3,666
3,000
1,676
31
37
1,015
991
2,608
3,778
3,473
2,073
40
51
1,032
1,202
3,902
4,662
3,680
2,631
Total Offenses 454 496 2432 2336 12,613 12,518 14,006 17,200
-100%
-67%
-3%
-12%
-45%
-11%
3%
33%
-8%
0%
73%
-6%
4%
-9%
2%
10%
21%
4%
35%
26%
-3%
1%
-11%
4%
-2%
14%
1%
35%
97%
-12%
-6%
-23%
1%
-16%
-8%
-10%
5%
43%
-14%
-22%
-49%
-18%
-20%
-27%
-27%
ATLANTA POLICE DEPARTMENT
*C I T Y W I D E*
Commander: Chief G. Turner
Sunday, June 07, 2015, 00:00 hrs Thursday, June 11, 2015, 23:59 hrsto
-100%
-67%
-11%
-11%
-47%
-3%
1%
42%
-6%
0
636
112
154
223
63
42
41
1
Crime
Zone Breakdown
Trending Line 636 102 127 99 102 109 95
Murder
Rape
Robbery
Agg Assault
Burglary
Larceny From Auto
Other Larceny
Auto Theft
Total Offenses
Crime
2014
Final
93
143
2,348
2,189
5,442
9,402
7,233
4,119
30,969
Incidents
95
164
2,005
2,102
4,520
8,620
6,593
4,319
28,418
% Change
2%
15%
-15%
-4%
-17%
-8%
-9%
5%
-8%
2015 Trend
2015 Projected Finish
Week: 24
Daily Cobra Report
Against
(2014)
Trend
%
Trend
(2015)
Assistant Commander: Asst. Chief S. Jones
679
79
153
230
119
47
46
3
2
Murder
Rape
Robbery
Agg Assault
Burglary
Larceny From Auto
Other Larceny
Auto Theft
0
1
29
30
45
159
110
80
Total Offenses 454
City
0
0
2
7
8
27
11
18
73
1
0
0
2
2
11
38
32
6
91
2
0
0
8
9
5
15
14
20
71
3
0
0
8
5
12
19
13
16
73
4
0
1
2
4
4
33
25
9
78
5
0
0
7
3
5
27
15
11
68
6Crime / Zone
679 102 114 116 106 121 120Last Year's Total
Page 1 of 7Friday, June 12, 2015 4:54 AMUpdated: Source: all ICIS incidents on file

9. Officers' time on call
SELECT u.incident_num, u.unit_id, min(u.unit_status_datetime) AS unit_disptime
FROM unit_status_hist u, cfs_core c
WHERE u.incident_num > ''
AND u.unit_id LIKE '[123][123456][012][0123456789]'
AND u.unit_id NOT LIKE '[123][123456][1][5]'
AND c.call_type = '89P'
AND c.incident_num = u.incident_num
AND c.incident_date BETWEEN '%s' AND '%s'
AND c.incident_date != '%s'
GROUP BY u.incident_num, u.unit_id
ORDER BY u.incident_num, u.unit_id", start_date, end_date, DSTdate

14. https://vimeo.com/116904976

16. Atlanta Repeat Offender Commission
• Stakeholders: Atlanta Police, Fulton County Sheriff, District Attorney,
Probation, Atl. Judicial Circuit, City Council, Fulton County
Commissioner, Superior Court, State Court, Fulton County Court,
Central Atlanta Progress
• Provide a factually-based report identifying the problem areas
• Propose recommendations for solutions
• Establish a reporting and accountability process

17. The Data Revealed
• A total of 14,412 arrest charges among the 461 individuals
• An average of more than 15 felony arrest cycles per offender
• Approximately 1500 of those arrests were for violent offenses, such
as murder, robbery, gun crimes, or aggravated assaults
• Approximately 3500 arrests were for drug crimes
• Less than 20 individuals received a jail or prison sentence beyond
time served
• In all records, there were 8,715 missing dispositions of cases

18. DRUG POSESSION / SALE /
PURCHASE
23%
THEFT / BURGLARY
11%
PROBATION / PAROLE
VIOLATION
11%
(Unknown)
OBSTRUCTION
9%
SIMPLE BATTERY /
ASSAULT
9%
CRIMINAL TRESPASS
6%
FAILURE TO APPEAR
6%
TRAFFIC / LICENSE
5%
WEAPON
5%
OFFENSE CATEGORY BY COUNT
DRUG POSESSION / SALE / PURCHASE
THEFT / BURGLARY
PROBATION / PAROLE VIOLATION
(blank)
OBSTRUCTION
SIMPLE BATTERY / ASSAULT
CRIMINAL TRESPASS
FAILURE TO APPEAR
TRAFFIC / LICENSE
WEAPON
DISORDERLY CONDUCT
DRUG ABANDONMENT
BANK FRAUD
CRUELTY TO CHILDREN
DAMAGING PUBLIC PROPERTY

19. Metro Atlanta
20 Counties
58 Municipalities
70 Police Departments

20. ?

23. Mall of America
http://blogs.mprnews.org/newscut/2015/03/report-moa-built-dossiers-on-protesters/

29. License Plate Reader
• Optical Pattern Recognition
• Triggers when detecting
vehicles of interest
• Anomalies in traffic flow
• Suspicious driving patterns
• Convoy analysis: vehicles that
repeatedly appear together

31. Complete surveillance…
then what?

32. Can we
predict crime
before
it happens?

34. W
ca
pre
hat
n we
dict?

36. What law enforcement knows
• Chronic offenders cause disproportionate crime problems, including
violence
• Many offenders are connected socially in groups
• Problems within and between groups cause problems
• Group members commit all sorts of crime (violence, minor offenses,
drugs)
• Controlling groups could have a significant impact

37. Research on Social Network Analysis
• Delinquent peers - one of the strongest predictors of crime
E. Mark Warr, Professor of Sociology, UT Austin
• Violence is concentrated among networks of people
Andrew Papachristos, Associate Professor of Sociology, Yale
University
• The closer you are socially to violence, the more likely you are to
become a victim
Papachristos
• Position is important within the network
Carlo Morselli, Associate Professor of Criminology, Université de
Montréal & Jean Marie McGloin, Associate Professor of Criminology
and Criminal Justice, University of Maryland

38. Social Network Analysis Terminology
• Sociogram
• Ego network
• Complete network
• Node
• Edge (non-directional)
• Arc(directional)
• Valued ties/unvalued ties
• Compontent
• One-mode network
• Two-mode network

39. DATA SOURCE
• Information that connects or informs the
relationship between 2+ people
• Field Interview Forms
• Arrest Reports
• Car/Traffic Stops
• “Street intel”
• Gang intelligence reports
• School Officers
• National Integrated Ballistic Information Network (NIBIN)

42. Describing Networks
• Network size
• Average degree
• Density = 2|E|/(|N|*(|N|-1))
• Transitivity (triangles)
• Reciprocity (directed data)
• Average path distance
• Centralization

46. Creating Network from ICIS Arrest Data
• Original data did not produce significantly large clusters
• Discovered that DB assigned multiple IDs to records that
should represent one person
• Developed heuristics for de-duplication based on
• name, birthday, address, driver's license

47. Co-arrests 2010-2012

48. Co-arrests Jan-Apr 2010

49. Co-arrests (animation)

50. Summary

51. Improvments
on top of
existing
Systems

52. Navigate between worlds:
Consumer vs Enterprise

53. Develop
connections
Between systems

54. Péter Molnár
pmolnar@atlantapolicefoundation.org