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Analysis and Prediction/Libolt
- 1. Analysis and Prediction For Women’s Apparel Rachael Libolt
- 2. Lucy and Ethel in Paris
- 3. Traditional Analysis and Prediction • Economics • Politics • Social Changes • Demographics • Technology
- 4. The Traditional Fashion Cycle
- 5. Diane Von Furstenberg F/W 2011
- 6. Fashion Research • Sales Data • Economics • Politics • Social Changes • Demographics • Technology • Pop Culture • Music • Art
- 8. “Anything Goes” Simon Doonan Barney’s New York “There are no more trends. Everything is in style” Authentic David Wolfe Creative Director; Donegar Group Cultural Experience
- 9. Trend Research Identify Your Customer • What are they doing? • Where are they going? • Who are they? Collect Data • What is new? • What is selling • What doesn’t sell? Analyze within a Social, Political end Economic context
- 10. Trend Research With a partner: 1. Research the Fashion Blogs 2. Select one item of apparel that you believe is in the introductory phase of the Fashion Cycle 3. Identify the target customer 4.Create a customer profile
- 11. Fashion Blogs: • http://lookbook.nu/ • http://www.bloglovin.com/en/blogs • http://www.stylelist.com/network
Editor's Notes
- Do any of you watch reruns of Lucy? Who remembers this episode of Lucy? They were in Paris and got to go to a designer runway show, of course Lucy and Ethel wanted a dress and Ricky and Fred said they couldn’t afford one… So Ricky and Fred decided to put one over on Lucy and Ethel by having dresses made out of burlap with a designer label inside… and of course they wore it proudly with the trash basket as the hat…well the designer saw it and copied them… Unwittingly Lucy and Ethel started a trend…
- In Lucy and Ethel's time, fashion cycles appeared and disappeared like clockwork over long periods of time sometimes as long as seven seasons. Designers often set the trends… Which is called trickle down…. such as Diors New Look… But….Fashion doesn’t happen in a vacuum it is a result of what is going on in the world…. Such as Economics…… In the 1950’s The war weary female tired of rationing embraced the glamorous New look that used yards of fabric Can you think of how the New Look reflected social change after WWII? Rosie the Riveter-- left the factory to be housewife again And TV mom’s did their part to make this silhouette popular including June Cleaver, Harriett Nelson and Lucille Ball.
- So in Lucy’s time in the 50’s and 60’s A style was introduced and the style often would last 7 seasons… The traditional Fashion cycle.. Starts with Introduction of a style – often at a high price level, they were shown at designer shows and market weeks, where buyers would look for new styles and different elements in designs for their stores. Peak of popularity is when the design/ trend is in such high demand a version of it can be found in most stores. Decline in popularity the product has been mass produced and fashion conscious people tire of the style and begin to look elsehwhere for something new. Consumers may still wear the garments but are no longer willing to buy them. Where would you imagine the fanny pack is in the cycle?
- Why do you imagine it is important to understand the rise and fall of the fashion cycle?
- Research is done before any design or merchandising activities are even attempted at every level- It is not easy to make or sell what people will want to buy in the future selling season- The fashion industry has companies that offer fashion forecasting and trend reporting, these companies base their predictions on: Sales Data, Economics, Politics , Social Changes, Demographics, Technology Pop culture Art and Music Until recently fashions From inception to availability was often a year away- Now….Because of technology even Nordstrom's has a 6 week turnaround for their version of fast fashion
- Some trends still come from designers .. But often they come from the street up… Here is a picture I took in Tokyo of Street fashion in January and when I came home that spring this was a page from Elle magazine Because of technology…. There have been radical changes in the speed of the fashion cycle and trends Items are seen on the runway…then fast fashion company's will photo graph them and have them into production within 24 hours…sometimes the fast fashion items will go through a season or sales cycle and be on the sale rack before the designer item has even been in the high end stores. The fashion industry has to be quick and flexible translating trends.
- In the spring of 2010, Simon Doonan —. "In the old days, style used to be the prerogatives of a small group of people”. “ All bets are off. Anything goes." Recently David Wolfe said…. “There are no more trends. Everything is in style” Today fashion, music, art, literature, politics, economics and just about everything else are going through social upheaval. Because of the Internet we no longer are looking for mass-culture experiences, but authentic experiences that relate to our culture. So major trends have become splintered mini-trends — which are not really trends at all. So how are industry insiders keeping tabs on the trends today?
- Only a few years ago they researched trends by: Street Spotting Collecting Data And interpreting it all in the context of Political social and economic climates To predict consumer preferences And producing expensive book on trends…. Fast Fashion according to Wendy Bendoni of Snap Fashion has ruined the Fashion Industry. Her company no longer produces trend reports into hardcopy print, because they are out of date by the time they are published, They put their information into slide shows on line…. For their customers Most major designers and manufacturers have people who work for them that walk the streets taking pictures.. Designers and trend forecasters alike now research the trends by going online to view Fashion blogs…
- I know of one Fashion blogger that was offered $5000 to go to the Coachella Music festival two weeks ago and take pictures for Forever 21!!!! So with a partner research the fashion blogs on your smart phone or in our state of the Art computer lab!