The document summarizes the key points of a seminar about analyzing and preparing for extreme catastrophic events that can impact infrastructure projects. It discusses how more frequent low probability, high impact events can seriously affect project cash flows and debt obligations. It provides an example of flooding in Australia in 2010 that impacted 200,000 people and reduced GDP by $30 billion. It also outlines factors projects face, common risk mitigation strategies, and how an extreme event could impact a gold mining project through disruption to operations, reduced revenues and costs, insurance claims, and debt repayments not being met.

1. Analysing Extreme Events Raising awareness of low frequency, high impact events An initiative by Navigator Project Finance in partnership with Allens Arthur Robinson

9. Extreme Events

11. A glance at just the last decade…. 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

12. Project Finance Basics

17. Risks and Mitigants

18. Risks Some of a few factors which face a project over its life

25. Case Study: Impact to a Project

26. The Situation Our case study is based on an Australian greenfield gold mine. The following is key information relating to the project

27. The Situation Funding assumptions for the project are laid out below

28. Project Diagram Borrower Banks SPV EPC Contractor Operating Contractor Offtaker 1 Long term sales contract Offtaker 2 Long term sales contract Shareholders Insurance

30. Base Case

39. Disaster Case (Without Insurance)

40. Scenario Comparison

41. Monte Carlo Simulation