Italian politicians make little use of statistics for two main reasons: 1) a lack of a database culture in Italy where voter registration and donation tracking are more difficult than in the US, and 2) widespread mistrust in politics and polls due to inaccurate pre-election polling. Specifically, the center-left Democratic Party failed to effectively use voter data from primaries in the 2012 and 2013 elections, and polls overestimated the Democratic Party's lead before the 2014 European elections, further reducing trust in statistics. Improving data sharing and increasing transparency could help remedy these issues and encourage more data-driven political campaigns in Italy.

1. Why do
italian politicians
make little use of statistics ?
Lack of database culture, anti-politics,
obsolete legislation:
the love story that never was
by Dino Amenduni
Personal Democracy Forum Italia
Data-driven campaigns in Europe: what went wrong after Obama?
Rome, 29 September 2014

2. 2
Who I am
My name’s Dino Amenduni
Twitter @doonie
Facebook facebook.com/amenduni
e-mail dino.amenduni@proformaweb.it
all the rest about.me/dinoamenduni
I’m Head of New Media and Political communication consultant
at Proforma (www.proformaweb.it)
I’m also a contributor and blogger for Finegil-Espresso Group, La Repubblica Bari.
I also teach (political communication and social media marketing).
All my slide presentations – including this one – are available for free
(for reference and download) at the following address:
www.slideshare.net/doonie
Why do italian politicians make little use of statistics?

3. 3
Preliminary statement
“It is a capital mistake to theorize
before one has data.
Insensibly one begins to twist
facts to suit theories, instead
of theories to suit facts”.
Arthur Conan Doyle
Why do italian politicians make little use of statistics?

4. 4
Comment live
on Twitter use hashtag #PDFItaly
on Facebook send your feedback to
www.facebook.com/amenduni
Why do italian politicians make little use of statistics?

5. 5
Two reasons
(and two case histories)
why Italian politicians
don’t use statistics
1. Lack of database culture
2. Anti-politics and false data reading
Why do italian politicians make little use of statistics?

6. 6
Lack
of database
culture
Case history: Democratic Party
(Primary elections 2012
and General Elections 2013)
I run for the Primary Elections,
I have the data but I don’t use them
1.
Why do italian politicians make little use of statistics?

7. 7
Lack of database culture
Differences between USA and Italy
- in Italy, to vote no pre-registration is necessary
→ no public database of voters
- donations from individuals to politicians are less traceable
→ it’s much more difficult to make donations publicly known
and to turn them into usable data
- stronger privacy policy in Italy (for the time being)
For the above reasons an electoral campaign “Obama style”
is nearly impossible in Italy. This doesn’t mean, however,
hat nothing can be done.
There exist public data (i.e. turnout and vote indications polling station
by polling station): why not use them?
Why do italian politicians make little use of statistics?

8. 8
Centre-left primary elections, 2012
Results of Primary elections first round Results of second ballot
1.7 million centre-left voters DID NOT vote for
the Premier candidate at the Primary Elections.
Are we sure that they did then go on to vote
for him at the General Elections?
Why do italian politicians make little use of statistics?

9. 9
General elections 2013
Bersani doesn’t win the elections,
nobody wins the elections,
and this is partly because of the electoral
law, which is different between
the Senate and the House.
Why do italian politicians make little use of statistics?

10. 10
Lack of database culture
Would Bersani have won the general elections
if he had used a database? Maybe yes
The centre-left coalition was the only one to have a
self-generated database, created on a voluntary
basis by those who voted in the Primary Elections; it was
made up of three million names, surnames, phone numbers,
email addresses and places of residence. During the electoral
campaign this database was only used for sending (very few)
non-specific emails.
Why do italian politicians make little use of statistics?

11. 11
Lack of database culture
What can be done with these data (some possible uses)?
1. Door-to-door campaigning in the
municipalities where consensus for Renzi
and Vendola was higher so as to strengthen
the support for the centre-left coalition;
2. The Primary election candidates could then have addressed
their electors with a targeted “call-to-action”;
3. Capillary fund-raising actions
(an average of 1 € per head would have meant 3 million €)
4. Crowdfunding actions
(policies set up jointly with the electors, local events)
Why do italian politicians make little use of statistics?

12. 12
Mistrust in politics
and false reading
of data
Case history: European General Elections 2014
National polls
are too often wrong.
2.
Why do italian politicians make little use of statistics?

13. 13
European Elections 2014
Average of polls on the European
Elections (25 May 2014)
Estimate of the distance between the Democratic Party
and the 5 Star Movement: 8 points.
Real distance after the Elections: 19 points.
If scientific data are so wrong, how can we trust them?
Why do italian politicians make little use of statistics?
Fiinal results of European Elections
(25 maggio 2014)

14. 14
Lack of trust in data
Inaccurate polls = growing distrust
towards pre-electoral data
It had already happened in the General Elections of 2013,
it happened again in the European Elections of 2014:
the polls did not predict the final election result.
Elsewhere (US elections, Scottish referendum)
things went differently.
Why do italian politicians make little use of statistics?

15. 15
Lack of trust in data
Inaccurate polls = growing distrust
towards pre-electoral data
What happens in Italy?
1. General Elections 2013:
6.5% of citizens only made their final voting decision once
actually inside the ballot box and 15% in the last 2 weeks
2. The publication of polls is illegal
in the fortnight leading up to the vote
3. Trust rate in the Party and in Parliament permanently under
10%: people are unwilling to reveal their vote
4. At the same time, the polls for the Local Elections
were much more reliable
Why do italian politicians make little use of statistics?

16. 16
Lack of trust in data
Data-driven campaigns in Italy:
how can we save the polls?
A working hypothesis:
abolition of the ban on publishing polls in the
last two weeks before the vote.
For two reasons:
a. In Italy, vote shifts in the last two weeks are considerable: the
last available polls given the current law will always be
imperfect, thus increasing the level of mistrust.
b. In other countries (US, UK) polls are published even
when polling stations are still open
and this doesn’t seem to influence the vote outcome
in any significant way.
Why do italian politicians make little use of statistics?

17. 17
Sfiducia nei dati
Data-driven campaigns in Italy:
how can we save the polls?
Two pieces of advice:
1. Never trust a single poll,
but rather monitor the trends on a weekly and monthly basis.
2. Read carefully the poll questions:
they can often influence the final result more
than one would expect.
Why do italian politicians make little use of statistics?

18. 18
Data-driven campaigns:
further difficulties
1. Poor communication between Institutions, little data sharing
between Public Administrations, lack of transparency, corruption,
waste of public money → Open Data are seen more as a threat
than as an opportunity.
2. Politics are rarely data-driven,
as indeed is political journalism:
opinions are stronger than facts.
3. Mistrust in politics + lack of transparency in certifying donations to
parties and candidates + progressive reduction of public financing
to politics = low budgets for data collecting and processing.
4. There is little political communication: besides data,
too often there’s a lack of campaign managers, spin doctors,
trainers for TV appearances. Italy is not House of Cards…
Why do italian politicians make little use of statistics?

19. 19
Conclusion
“Politicians use statistics
like drunkards use lampposts:
not for illumination,
but for support”.
Benjamin Disraeli
Why do italian politicians make little use of statistics?

20. 20
Thank you!
Why do italian politicians make little use of statistics?

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