SlideShare a Scribd company logo
1 of 60
Download to read offline
The Death of Polling Version 1 Public 1
Death of
Polling?
The
#ipsosmorilive
The Death of Polling Version 1 Public 2
Ben Page, Ipsos MORI
Agenda
Julia Clark, Ipsos USA
David Ahlin, Ipsos Sweden
Nando Pagnoncelli, Ipsos Italy
Darrell Bricker, Ipsos Canada
Q&A
The Death of Polling Version 1 Public 3
Ben Page
Ipsos MORI
ben.page@ipsos.com
#ipsosmorilive
4The Death of Polling? Version 1 Public
Sadly not everywhere looks like this …
Average candidate error in US Presidential Elections (INDIV CAND SHARE)
1936
6%
1.5%
2012
5The Death of Polling? Version 1 Public
There’s a global
Ipsos has carried out election
conversation going
on about polling
polling in c30 countries since 2007
6The Death of Polling? Version 1 Public
And pollsters all around the world are
How do we achieve a
representative sample?
How do we predict
turnout accurately?
having to face up to hard questions
How do we make best
use of the increasing range
of methodologies open to us?
How do we ensure our polls
are reported well and
understood among the
media, politicians
and the public?How do we avoid other
biases, such as social
desirability?
7The Death of Polling? Version 1 Public
... although our answers
Size/diversity of population
Turnout levels/compulsory voting
Stable party system or new insurgents?
Generational declines in party loyalty
Societal/cultural context Media expectations vs budgets
and levels of
polling transparency?
Survey researchers or
moving towards big
data modelling?
National polls vs
local/state-level polling?
Traditional face-to-face
methods vs new
or mixed modes?
And in any one country
likely to be good and
bad examples of each!
may be very different!
The Death of Polling Version 1 Public 8
UK
experience
The
9The Death of Polling? Version 1 Public
British Polling Council
Selection of samples
(their main explanation)
Representativeness of sample
(key among explanations)
Correction for likelihood
of voting (less important)
Late swing (some signs,
but not that important)
Herding
(unproven)
Inquiry Interim findings
10The Death of Polling? Version 1 Public
Our final poll – all parties less than 2% points away
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
from actual – except Labour, overestimated
36%
35%
11%
5%
8%
5%
Ipsos MORI final poll GB final result
Conservative lead = +1 Conservative lead = +6.5
CONSERVATIVE
LABOUR
UKIP
GREEN
LIB DEM
OTHER
37.7%
31.2%
12.9%
3.8%
8.1%
6.4%
11The Death of Polling? Version 1 Public
‘Shy Tories’ not our problem – instead too
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
many Labour voters and not enough non-voters
Conservatives
Labour
Non voters
11.3m
12.5m
9.3m
12.2m
20.5m
15.4m
Actual
Implied from final poll
The Death of Polling Version 1 Public 12
Ipsos MORI’s view:
We need to take a two-pronged approach
– tackle the problem of more politically
engaged taking part and also making
sure we can detect differential shift
in turnout over-claim between parties
The Death of Polling Version 1 Public 13
Ipsos MORI’s view:
Healthy scepticism
not the death of polling
14The Death of Polling? Version 1 Public
We need to improve representation of
No easy answers to this
(especially bearing in
mind budget and time
Constraints)
politically disengaged/non-voters in our samples
Already introduced newspaper weighting (for example to reduce
proportion of broadsheet readers). In four months from
September to December 2015 this:
• Reduced the proportion of claimed likely voters by an average of 3
percentage points a month
• Primarily at the expense of the Labour share (down on average by 3 points,
Conservatives up by 1.75 points)
But will continue other experiments (for example changes in quotas, and so on)
15The Death of Polling? Version 1 Public
Random samples after election though do not appear
to be hugely more representative than our quota ones
Election
result
Final telephone
polls (average)
Final Ipsos MORI
poll
British Social
Attitudes
British Election
Study1
Ipsos MORI post-
GE past vote
(June-July)
Voting
intentions2
Difference
from result
Voting
intentions
Difference
from result
Report of
vote
Difference
from result
Report of
vote
Difference
from result
Report of
vote
Difference
from result
% % % % % %
Con. 37.7 34.5 -3.2 36 -1.7 39.7 +2.0 40.6 +2.9 37.9 +0.2
Labour 31.2 34.3 +3.1 35 +3.8 33.6 +2.4 32.7 +1.5 32.5 +1.3
Other
parties 31.2 31.2 0.0 29 -2.2 26.7 -4.5 26.7 -4.5 29.6 -1.6
The Death of Polling Version 1 Public 16
The Death of Polling?
So much more than
a horse race
17The Death of Polling? Version 1 Public
So much more
richness in the
polls to help
us understand
public opinion
18The Death of Polling? Version 1 Public
Not to mention giving voters a
chance to express their views
19The Death of Polling? Version 1 Public
Or using twitter analytics to get live, real-time reactions
to the big events: 239,000 tweets in the 2nd debate
Twitter ‘worm’ – real time
analysis of reaction to
second leader debate
(2,500+ per minute)
20The Death of Polling? Version 1 Public
And using new digital techniques to get closer to voters
7426
posts across
340 forum
topics
c.2000
members
from across
the UK
Over
7500
survey
responses
The Death of Polling Version 1 Public 21
Julia Clark
Ipsos USA
julia.clark@ipsos.com
#ipsosmorilive
THE THEME IS:
More Data Than Ever
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Jan-60
Dec-60
Nov-61
Oct-62
Sep-63
Aug-64
Jul-65
Jun-66
May-67
Apr-68
Mar-69
Feb-70
Jan-71
Dec-71
Nov-72
Oct-73
Sep-74
Aug-75
Jul-76
Jun-77
May-78
Apr-79
Mar-80
Feb-81
Jan-82
Dec-82
Nov-83
Oct-84
Sep-85
Aug-86
Jul-87
Jun-88
May-89
Apr-90
Mar-91
Feb-92
Jan-93
Dec-93
Nov-94
Oct-95
Sep-96
Aug-97
Jul-98
Jun-99
May-00
Apr-01
Mar-02
Feb-03
Jan-04
Dec-04
Nov-05
Oct-06
Sep-07
Aug-08
Jul-09
Jun-10
May-11
Apr-12
Number of Polls per month - 1960 - 2013Number of Polls per Month – 1960 - 2013
17,058 polls in 2012
Current US Political Polling Methodologies
PHONE
RDD
Lists
IVR (Robo)
TRADITIONAL
ONLINE
Probability
Panel Only
Lists
Blended
NONTRADITIONAL
ONLINE
SurveyMonkey
Google
Great Variation Among Pollsters
2
5
Constantly
Changing
Questionnaire
(daily)
Election
Day ‘Exit
Poll’ of
40,000
Voters
Continual Survey: 11,000/month (24/7/365)
Daily Assessing Events Same-Day (Parsing)
26
State-level
polls (2k)
with rolling
reporting
What Does Ipsos Do?
A VERY QUICK
WORD ON THE US
ELECTION…
ANTI-ESTABLISHMENT THEME:
But Differential Framing of Problems & Causes
The rich are to blame
Middle Class Economics
Americans First
Restarting American
Exceptionalism
VS.
Trump & Sanders are the Response
17%
5% 5% 6%
13%
3% 3%
29%
19%
Trump
Cruz
Carson
Otheroutsiders(Paul,
Fiorina,etc)
Establishment(Bush,
Rubio,etc)
Wouldn'tvote
O'Malley
Clinton
Sanders
Republicans (46%) Democrats (51%)
46% of Americans are
supporting “nontraditional”
candidates
Political Fundamentals Speak to a Republican Year
65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35%
Government Approval Rating
OddsofWinning
Incumbent Party’s Odds of Winning White House
SUCCESSORS
INCUMBENTS
(2012)
… AND LOW TURNOUT BENEFITS THE REPUBLICANS TOO
Source: Reuters / Ipsos Poll; Sept-Oct 2014
30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65%
51
50
49 49
48
47 47 47
44 44
45
46 46
48
Republican Vote
Democratic Vote
2012 TurnoutActual 2014 Turnout
GenericCongressionalVoteShare
Turnout Level (by Likely Voter Model)
2014 Generic Congressional Ballot by Turnout Levels
The Death of Polling Version 1 Public 33
Nando Pagnoncelli
Ipsos Italy
nando.pagnoncelli@ipsos.com
#ipsosmorilive
34 © 2015 Ipsos.
THE PREDOMINANCE OF COMPLEXITY
THE ELECTORAL SCENARIO IN ITALY - 2013
169 parties and
movements
2
35 © 2015 Ipsos.
A GAME CHANGER EFFECT
THE EVOLUTION OF THE ELECTOR
ELECTORATES become fluid, reactive to the political offer, they lose
their sense of belonging
2013 is the end of a 20-year period of almost perfect turnover
between centre-left and centre-right, during which
• neither coalition was in office for two turns in a row
• voters switches between the two coalitions were residual
3
36 © 2015 Ipsos.
A GAME CHANGER EFFECT
MOVIMENTO 5 STELLE
in 2013 we experienced a political earthquake or, a tsunami
4
37 © 2015 Ipsos.
A GAME CHANGER EFFECT
MOVIMENTO 5 STELLE
… with victims, politicians …
… and pollster alike
they got a shock
we got it wrong
5
38 © 2015 Ipsos.
EVERYBODY BECAME A POLLING EXPERT, except the experts
THE POLLSTERS UNDER ACCUSATION
Discussions went on for weeks on the limits of polls
 Methodologies
 Sample size
 Coverage
 Bias
 …
were discussed and commented and criticised by anybody and all on TV, in
newspapers, online forum, social networks, workplaces and cafés
6
39 © 2015 Ipsos.
Tecnè Demos Ipsos
diff vs. actual results
RIVOLUZIONE CIVILE 0,9% 0,9% 1,0%
SEL 0,0% 0,4% 0,4%
PD 4,9% 3,7% 4,9%
ALTRI CENTRO SINISTRA -0,4% -0,5% -0,4%
TOTALE CENTROSINISTRA 4,5% 3,6% 4,9%
CON MONTI PER L'ITALIA -0,9% 2,0% 0,4%
UDC 0,8% 1,0% 0,7%
FLI 0,0% 0,2% 0,2%
TOTALE CENTRO -0,1% 3,2% 1,3%
LEGA NORD 1,0% 1,2% -0,1%
PDL -0,3% -1,5% -1,4%
ALTRI CENTRO DESTRA -0,7% -0,7% 0,6%
TOTALE CENTRODESTRA 0,0% -1,0% -0,9%
MOVIMENTO 5 STELLE
BEPPEGRILLO.IT -5,8% -6,6% -5,6%
POLLSTERS WERE INACCURATE
THE POLLSTERS UNDER ACCUSATION
WHAT WENT WRONG WHY IT WENT WRONG
For all the major agencies in Italy
• overestimated the Democratic Party’s
• underestimated the M5S result
• No past voters behaviour on M5S, which is a key
component of the weighting process
• The difficulties of intercepting the potential M5S
voters
• reticence in centre-left supporters to declare their
intention
• last minute swing (25% estimated to have decided 2
days before)
• A high refusal rate, affecting differently the
various groups of respondents (10 contacts to
get a valid interview)
• Respondents lie
7
40 © 2015 Ipsos.
BUT SOME WERE MORE ACCURATE THAN OTHERS
THE POLLSTERS UNDER ACCUSATION
WHAT WENT RIGHT WHY IT WENT RIGHT
IPSOS correctly described the scenario
• The high level of abstention (26,5%)
• The dramatic growth of M5S
• The victory of the centre-left at the
Chamber of Deputies
• The hung Senate
• All the other parties’ results
Because
• A mixed sampling method was used
• Sample sizes were large enough
• We had been polling continuously –
weekly, even daily – for a long time
• We had a wealth of data
• We had lots of analyses on targets,
geographical areas, voters switch
dynamics
8
41 © 2015 Ipsos.
THE PREDOMINANCE OF MADNESS
THE POLLSTERS CHALLENGE
Our stakeholders show a schizophrenic attitude
• one minute, they attack us, because we couldn’t predict the future as
exactly as we are expected to
• the minute after, they ask for data, comments, explanations, because
they need our expertise in interpretation
We would like to see expectations decrease, towards the predictive nature of
our work
but we know it’s inconceivable
9
42 © 2015 Ipsos.
THE FlashForward Effect
THE POLLSTERS CHALLENGE
… and everyone acted consequently.
Polls act as an activator of two powerful, contrasting forces
in electors
• Self-fulfilling prophecies
vs.
• Self-defeating prophecies
“On October 6, the planet blacked out for two minutes and seventeen seconds. The whole world saw the future...”
10
The Death of Polling Version 1 Public 43
David Ahlin
Ipsos Sweden
david.ahlin@ipsos.com
#ipsosmorilive
2,9
(2006)
5,7
(2010)
12,9
(2014)
0
10
20
30
Electoral support for the Sweden Democrats 2006-2016
2006 2010 2014
0
30
60
Left-Right Parties Election 2006 Left-Right Parties February 2016
From two political blocks to three – in ten years
Immigration most pressing issue and Voter support
for Sweden Democrats
5
8
13
20
20
40
6
7
9
12
14
17
0
20
40
June-2010 June-2014 Aug-2014 Jan-2015 Jun-2015 Jan-2016
Immigration/integration most pressing issue Voter support for the Sweden Democrats
Immigration most pressing issue and google searches
for “refugee” in Swedish
8 13
20 20
40
0
20
40
60
80
100
June-2014 Aug-2014 Jan-2015 June 2015 Jan-2016
Number of people say immigration/integration issues are most pressing issue
The number of searches on the word
”Refugee” on Google in Swedish
during the same time period
17.2
23.9
0
20
Average voter support Telephone based methods Average voter support Web based methods
Voter support Sweden Democrats based on
method of measurement Feb 2016
49 © 2015 Ipsos.
The state of polling 2016
SWEDEN
Social effects /
Interviewer effects
Higher share of non-
response in strong
Sweden Democrat
regions
From 45 % – 25 % in
the last six years
SOCIAL EFFECTS AND
NON-RESPONSE
DROPPING
RESPONSE RATES
Less than 50 per cent
with younger Swedes
Not a problem with
seniors
SAMPLE COVERAGE
Telephone calls only
for close friends and
family? (Pew 2015)
Web based and
telephone based give
different answers
Transparency!
Mobile first strategy?
NEW BEHAVIORS
NEW METHODS
The Death of Polling Version 1 Public 50
Darrell Bricker
Ipsos Canada
darrell.bricker@ipsos.com
#ipsosmorilive
51 © 2015 Ipsos.
Ipsos Final Poll vs. Actual Election Results—National
ELECTION DEBRIEF
Ipsos Final Poll Election Results
38% 40%
31% 32%
22% 20%
4% 5%
4% 4%
Base: Final Call Poll (Decided Voters, Leaners Included n=2,226; Online n=1,328; CATI n=898)
Weighting: 50/50 telephone/online, education, region, thumb
52 © 2015 Ipsos.
Online/Telephone Research (Call Poll)
ELECTION DEBRIEF
2 waves consisting of minimum sample sizes of:
1/3
1/3
1/3 Ampario
Allocated
Reallocated
1,000 Telephone Completes

1,000 Online OMNI

roughly: 40% cellphone
3-day
field
window

 Sample blended together to create 4 quadrants:
1) telephone landline; 2) telephone cell; 3) online panel, and 4) online non-panel
- Result somewhere in the middle…
and
KEY BENEFITS:
 Telephone poll to act as a gut check on our online  greater confidence in our figures
 Triangulation among various sample sources mitigates bias of any one methodology
 Allows us to formulate a weighting scheme to mitigate panel bias
53 © 2015 Ipsos.
Call Poll Sample Breakdown
ELECTION DEBRIEF
Base: Final Call Poll (Total n=2,503; Online n=1,502; CATI n=1,001)
16%
24%
13%
47%
CATI Mobile
CATI Landline
Online Ampario
Online Panel 60%
Online
40%
CATI
54 © 2015 Ipsos.
What We Learned
54 © 2015 Ipsos.
55 © 2015 Ipsos.
Lessons Learned and Next Steps
ELECTION DEBRIEF
Mixed mode methods show promise.
Ipsos will continue to explore and share what we learn.
Offset biases
associated
with specific
modes of data
collection with
minimum
weighting.
56 © 2015 Ipsos.
Lessons Learned and Next Steps
ELECTION DEBRIEF
Online and offline methods consistently under and over-estimate specific
demographic groups. Also, over and under-estimate specific voter mindsets.
Evidence building that:
…online overestimates progressive
voters
…telephone overestimates
conservative voters.
57 © 2015 Ipsos.
Lessons Learned and Next Steps
ELECTION DEBRIEF
LIKELY VOTER ESTIMATES,
while logically attractive,
work better in theory than
in practice.
What’s missing? How do we
make them better?
58 © 2015 Ipsos.
Likely Voter Model
A REGRESSION MODEL BASED ON…
PAST BEHAVIOUR
INTENT TO VOTE
INTEREST IN ELECTION
59 © 2015 Ipsos.
Final Weighted Call Poll by Likely Voter
ELECTION DEBRIEF
38%
37%
37%
37%
37%
31%
32%
32%
33%
32%
22%
22%
22%
22%
22%
4%
2%
2%
2%
3%
4%
5%
5%
5%
4%
Final
55% Turnout
60% Turnout
65% Turnout
70% Turnout
Liberals Conservative NDP Green Bloc
Base: Final Call Poll (Online Total Decided Voters n=1,328; I-Say Allocated n=427; I-Say Re-Allocated n=624; Ampario n=277)
Weighting: 50/50 telephone/online, education, region, thumb
The Death of Polling Version 1 Public 60
Thanks for listening
Q&A
#ipsosmorilive

More Related Content

What's hot

[Infographic] How will Internet of Things (IoT) change the world as we know it?
[Infographic] How will Internet of Things (IoT) change the world as we know it?[Infographic] How will Internet of Things (IoT) change the world as we know it?
[Infographic] How will Internet of Things (IoT) change the world as we know it?InterQuest Group
 
U.S. Technology Funding -- What's Going On?
U.S. Technology Funding -- What's Going On? U.S. Technology Funding -- What's Going On?
U.S. Technology Funding -- What's Going On? a16z
 
2016 Digital predictions for marketing, tech, pop culture and everything in b...
2016 Digital predictions for marketing, tech, pop culture and everything in b...2016 Digital predictions for marketing, tech, pop culture and everything in b...
2016 Digital predictions for marketing, tech, pop culture and everything in b...Soap Creative
 
Montreal Girl Geeks: Building the Modern Web
Montreal Girl Geeks: Building the Modern WebMontreal Girl Geeks: Building the Modern Web
Montreal Girl Geeks: Building the Modern WebRachel Andrew
 
planning at a glance
planning at a glanceplanning at a glance
planning at a glanceNick Smatt
 
GPT and other Text Transformers: Black Swans and Stochastic Parrots
GPT and other Text Transformers:  Black Swans and Stochastic ParrotsGPT and other Text Transformers:  Black Swans and Stochastic Parrots
GPT and other Text Transformers: Black Swans and Stochastic ParrotsKonstantin Savenkov
 
'Eye Spy Growth: How To Get the Most From Your Media' at Mumbrella's Retail M...
'Eye Spy Growth: How To Get the Most From Your Media' at Mumbrella's Retail M...'Eye Spy Growth: How To Get the Most From Your Media' at Mumbrella's Retail M...
'Eye Spy Growth: How To Get the Most From Your Media' at Mumbrella's Retail M...AnneNguyen92
 
Five Apps You Should Download Today
Five Apps You Should Download TodayFive Apps You Should Download Today
Five Apps You Should Download TodayGary Vaynerchuk
 
Punch Social Media Trends Report 2022
Punch Social Media Trends Report 2022Punch Social Media Trends Report 2022
Punch Social Media Trends Report 2022Bryn Foweather
 
The Digital Sociology of Generative AI (1).pptx
The Digital Sociology of Generative AI (1).pptxThe Digital Sociology of Generative AI (1).pptx
The Digital Sociology of Generative AI (1).pptxMark Carrigan
 
People Don't Care About Your Brand
People Don't Care About Your BrandPeople Don't Care About Your Brand
People Don't Care About Your BrandSlides That Rock
 
Brand Planning for Clients
Brand Planning for ClientsBrand Planning for Clients
Brand Planning for ClientsGriffin Farley
 
China metaverse report by daxue consulting and ayo consulting
China metaverse report by daxue consulting and ayo consultingChina metaverse report by daxue consulting and ayo consulting
China metaverse report by daxue consulting and ayo consultingDaxue Consulting
 
Martin Weigel- How to (not) FAIL
Martin Weigel- How to (not) FAILMartin Weigel- How to (not) FAIL
Martin Weigel- How to (not) FAILIvan Chernopyatko
 
ChatGPT Cheatsheet 2023
ChatGPT Cheatsheet 2023ChatGPT Cheatsheet 2023
ChatGPT Cheatsheet 2023SaahilThakur
 
Go Viral on the Social Web: The Definitive How-To guide!
Go Viral on the Social Web: The Definitive How-To guide!Go Viral on the Social Web: The Definitive How-To guide!
Go Viral on the Social Web: The Definitive How-To guide!XPLAIN
 
Future of Blockchain
Future of BlockchainFuture of Blockchain
Future of BlockchainMelanie Swan
 

What's hot (20)

[Infographic] How will Internet of Things (IoT) change the world as we know it?
[Infographic] How will Internet of Things (IoT) change the world as we know it?[Infographic] How will Internet of Things (IoT) change the world as we know it?
[Infographic] How will Internet of Things (IoT) change the world as we know it?
 
U.S. Technology Funding -- What's Going On?
U.S. Technology Funding -- What's Going On? U.S. Technology Funding -- What's Going On?
U.S. Technology Funding -- What's Going On?
 
Is AI generation the next platform shift?
Is AI generation the next platform shift?Is AI generation the next platform shift?
Is AI generation the next platform shift?
 
chatgpt dalle.pptx
chatgpt dalle.pptxchatgpt dalle.pptx
chatgpt dalle.pptx
 
2016 Digital predictions for marketing, tech, pop culture and everything in b...
2016 Digital predictions for marketing, tech, pop culture and everything in b...2016 Digital predictions for marketing, tech, pop culture and everything in b...
2016 Digital predictions for marketing, tech, pop culture and everything in b...
 
Montreal Girl Geeks: Building the Modern Web
Montreal Girl Geeks: Building the Modern WebMontreal Girl Geeks: Building the Modern Web
Montreal Girl Geeks: Building the Modern Web
 
planning at a glance
planning at a glanceplanning at a glance
planning at a glance
 
GPT and other Text Transformers: Black Swans and Stochastic Parrots
GPT and other Text Transformers:  Black Swans and Stochastic ParrotsGPT and other Text Transformers:  Black Swans and Stochastic Parrots
GPT and other Text Transformers: Black Swans and Stochastic Parrots
 
'Eye Spy Growth: How To Get the Most From Your Media' at Mumbrella's Retail M...
'Eye Spy Growth: How To Get the Most From Your Media' at Mumbrella's Retail M...'Eye Spy Growth: How To Get the Most From Your Media' at Mumbrella's Retail M...
'Eye Spy Growth: How To Get the Most From Your Media' at Mumbrella's Retail M...
 
Five Apps You Should Download Today
Five Apps You Should Download TodayFive Apps You Should Download Today
Five Apps You Should Download Today
 
Punch Social Media Trends Report 2022
Punch Social Media Trends Report 2022Punch Social Media Trends Report 2022
Punch Social Media Trends Report 2022
 
The Digital Sociology of Generative AI (1).pptx
The Digital Sociology of Generative AI (1).pptxThe Digital Sociology of Generative AI (1).pptx
The Digital Sociology of Generative AI (1).pptx
 
People Don't Care About Your Brand
People Don't Care About Your BrandPeople Don't Care About Your Brand
People Don't Care About Your Brand
 
Brand Planning for Clients
Brand Planning for ClientsBrand Planning for Clients
Brand Planning for Clients
 
China metaverse report by daxue consulting and ayo consulting
China metaverse report by daxue consulting and ayo consultingChina metaverse report by daxue consulting and ayo consulting
China metaverse report by daxue consulting and ayo consulting
 
Martin Weigel- How to (not) FAIL
Martin Weigel- How to (not) FAILMartin Weigel- How to (not) FAIL
Martin Weigel- How to (not) FAIL
 
ChatGPT Cheatsheet 2023
ChatGPT Cheatsheet 2023ChatGPT Cheatsheet 2023
ChatGPT Cheatsheet 2023
 
Go Viral on the Social Web: The Definitive How-To guide!
Go Viral on the Social Web: The Definitive How-To guide!Go Viral on the Social Web: The Definitive How-To guide!
Go Viral on the Social Web: The Definitive How-To guide!
 
Future of Blockchain
Future of BlockchainFuture of Blockchain
Future of Blockchain
 
nft.pptx
nft.pptxnft.pptx
nft.pptx
 

Viewers also liked

The 2016 CES Report: The Trend Behind the Trend
The 2016 CES Report: The Trend Behind the TrendThe 2016 CES Report: The Trend Behind the Trend
The 2016 CES Report: The Trend Behind the Trend360i
 
The True Timeline Behind The People vs. O.J. Simpson
The True Timeline Behind The People vs. O.J. SimpsonThe True Timeline Behind The People vs. O.J. Simpson
The True Timeline Behind The People vs. O.J. SimpsonInstant Checkmate
 
Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016 - Iowa Caucuses
Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016 - Iowa CaucusesPublic Opinion Landscape: Election 2016 - Iowa Caucuses
Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016 - Iowa CaucusesGloverParkGroup
 
Things That Don't Matter in Your Presentation!
Things That Don't Matter in Your Presentation!Things That Don't Matter in Your Presentation!
Things That Don't Matter in Your Presentation!Ayman Sadiq
 
Activism x Technology
Activism x TechnologyActivism x Technology
Activism x TechnologyWebVisions
 
Prototyping is an attitude
Prototyping is an attitudePrototyping is an attitude
Prototyping is an attitudeWith Company
 
Fight for Yourself: How to Sell Your Ideas and Crush Presentations
Fight for Yourself: How to Sell Your Ideas and Crush PresentationsFight for Yourself: How to Sell Your Ideas and Crush Presentations
Fight for Yourself: How to Sell Your Ideas and Crush PresentationsDigital Surgeons
 
Why Are You Attracted to That Person?
Why Are You Attracted to That Person? Why Are You Attracted to That Person?
Why Are You Attracted to That Person? SlideShop.com
 
Designing the Future: When Fact Meets Fiction
Designing the Future: When Fact Meets FictionDesigning the Future: When Fact Meets Fiction
Designing the Future: When Fact Meets FictionDean Johnson
 
The Complete Starter Guide To Tumblr Marketing
The Complete Starter Guide To Tumblr MarketingThe Complete Starter Guide To Tumblr Marketing
The Complete Starter Guide To Tumblr MarketingViraltag Inc.
 
How To Become... LORD OF THE SLIDES
How To Become... LORD OF THE SLIDESHow To Become... LORD OF THE SLIDES
How To Become... LORD OF THE SLIDESPaul Brown
 
Secrets to a Great Team
Secrets to a Great TeamSecrets to a Great Team
Secrets to a Great TeamElodie A.
 
Connecting With the Disconnected
Connecting With the DisconnectedConnecting With the Disconnected
Connecting With the DisconnectedChris Wejr
 
Can We Assess Creativity?
Can We Assess Creativity?Can We Assess Creativity?
Can We Assess Creativity?John Spencer
 
How to Become a Thought Leader in Your Niche
How to Become a Thought Leader in Your NicheHow to Become a Thought Leader in Your Niche
How to Become a Thought Leader in Your NicheLeslie Samuel
 
How does SnapChat and Social Live Streaming Video Work?
How does SnapChat and Social Live Streaming Video Work?How does SnapChat and Social Live Streaming Video Work?
How does SnapChat and Social Live Streaming Video Work?Eric T. Tung
 

Viewers also liked (20)

The 2016 CES Report: The Trend Behind the Trend
The 2016 CES Report: The Trend Behind the TrendThe 2016 CES Report: The Trend Behind the Trend
The 2016 CES Report: The Trend Behind the Trend
 
The True Timeline Behind The People vs. O.J. Simpson
The True Timeline Behind The People vs. O.J. SimpsonThe True Timeline Behind The People vs. O.J. Simpson
The True Timeline Behind The People vs. O.J. Simpson
 
The Rise Of China
The Rise Of ChinaThe Rise Of China
The Rise Of China
 
Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016 - Iowa Caucuses
Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016 - Iowa CaucusesPublic Opinion Landscape: Election 2016 - Iowa Caucuses
Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016 - Iowa Caucuses
 
Things That Don't Matter in Your Presentation!
Things That Don't Matter in Your Presentation!Things That Don't Matter in Your Presentation!
Things That Don't Matter in Your Presentation!
 
Activism x Technology
Activism x TechnologyActivism x Technology
Activism x Technology
 
Prototyping is an attitude
Prototyping is an attitudePrototyping is an attitude
Prototyping is an attitude
 
Fight for Yourself: How to Sell Your Ideas and Crush Presentations
Fight for Yourself: How to Sell Your Ideas and Crush PresentationsFight for Yourself: How to Sell Your Ideas and Crush Presentations
Fight for Yourself: How to Sell Your Ideas and Crush Presentations
 
Why Are You Attracted to That Person?
Why Are You Attracted to That Person? Why Are You Attracted to That Person?
Why Are You Attracted to That Person?
 
Designing the Future: When Fact Meets Fiction
Designing the Future: When Fact Meets FictionDesigning the Future: When Fact Meets Fiction
Designing the Future: When Fact Meets Fiction
 
The Complete Starter Guide To Tumblr Marketing
The Complete Starter Guide To Tumblr MarketingThe Complete Starter Guide To Tumblr Marketing
The Complete Starter Guide To Tumblr Marketing
 
How To Become... LORD OF THE SLIDES
How To Become... LORD OF THE SLIDESHow To Become... LORD OF THE SLIDES
How To Become... LORD OF THE SLIDES
 
Secrets to a Great Team
Secrets to a Great TeamSecrets to a Great Team
Secrets to a Great Team
 
Inaugural Addresses
Inaugural AddressesInaugural Addresses
Inaugural Addresses
 
Connecting With the Disconnected
Connecting With the DisconnectedConnecting With the Disconnected
Connecting With the Disconnected
 
Can We Assess Creativity?
Can We Assess Creativity?Can We Assess Creativity?
Can We Assess Creativity?
 
How to Become a Thought Leader in Your Niche
How to Become a Thought Leader in Your NicheHow to Become a Thought Leader in Your Niche
How to Become a Thought Leader in Your Niche
 
Public Opinion
Public OpinionPublic Opinion
Public Opinion
 
Opinion polls
Opinion pollsOpinion polls
Opinion polls
 
How does SnapChat and Social Live Streaming Video Work?
How does SnapChat and Social Live Streaming Video Work?How does SnapChat and Social Live Streaming Video Work?
How does SnapChat and Social Live Streaming Video Work?
 

Similar to The Death of Polling?

Ipsos MORI General Election 2015 Briefing
Ipsos MORI General Election 2015 BriefingIpsos MORI General Election 2015 Briefing
Ipsos MORI General Election 2015 BriefingIpsos UK
 
Ipsos MORI's initial view on polls accuracy in the UK's 2015 election
Ipsos MORI's initial view on polls accuracy in the UK's 2015 electionIpsos MORI's initial view on polls accuracy in the UK's 2015 election
Ipsos MORI's initial view on polls accuracy in the UK's 2015 electionIpsos UK
 
RedC Poll, Richard Colwell- Autumn Seminar 2010
RedC Poll, Richard Colwell- Autumn Seminar 2010RedC Poll, Richard Colwell- Autumn Seminar 2010
RedC Poll, Richard Colwell- Autumn Seminar 2010ExSite
 
Reuters/Ipsos Core Political Survey: Presidential Approval Tracker (08/19/2020)
Reuters/Ipsos Core Political Survey: Presidential Approval Tracker (08/19/2020)Reuters/Ipsos Core Political Survey: Presidential Approval Tracker (08/19/2020)
Reuters/Ipsos Core Political Survey: Presidential Approval Tracker (08/19/2020)Ipsos Public Affairs
 
Ipsos MORI General Election Briefing: The Final Week
Ipsos MORI General Election Briefing: The Final WeekIpsos MORI General Election Briefing: The Final Week
Ipsos MORI General Election Briefing: The Final WeekIpsos UK
 
Attitudes to immigration: National issue or global challenge?
Attitudes to immigration: National issue or global challenge?Attitudes to immigration: National issue or global challenge?
Attitudes to immigration: National issue or global challenge?Ipsos UK
 
Brute force effects of mass media presence and social media activity on elect...
Brute force effects of mass media presence and social media activity on elect...Brute force effects of mass media presence and social media activity on elect...
Brute force effects of mass media presence and social media activity on elect...Marko Kovic
 
Beyond the Bubble - Labour Conference 2015
Beyond the Bubble - Labour Conference 2015Beyond the Bubble - Labour Conference 2015
Beyond the Bubble - Labour Conference 2015Ipsos UK
 
Spinning the Election: Who is setting the Agenda in the UK General Election 2...
Spinning the Election: Who is setting the Agenda in the UK General Election 2...Spinning the Election: Who is setting the Agenda in the UK General Election 2...
Spinning the Election: Who is setting the Agenda in the UK General Election 2...Ipsos UK
 
Immigration: How Views Change
Immigration: How Views ChangeImmigration: How Views Change
Immigration: How Views ChangeIpsos UK
 
2019 Reuters Tracking - Core Political 05 01 2019
2019 Reuters Tracking - Core Political 05 01 20192019 Reuters Tracking - Core Political 05 01 2019
2019 Reuters Tracking - Core Political 05 01 2019Ipsos Public Affairs
 
General Election: One Year Out
General Election: One Year OutGeneral Election: One Year Out
General Election: One Year OutIpsos UK
 
Reuters/Ipsos Core Political: Presidential Approval Tracker (06/17/2020)
Reuters/Ipsos Core Political: Presidential Approval Tracker (06/17/2020)Reuters/Ipsos Core Political: Presidential Approval Tracker (06/17/2020)
Reuters/Ipsos Core Political: Presidential Approval Tracker (06/17/2020)Ipsos Public Affairs
 
Green Growth: The 2015 Election and the Environment
Green Growth: The 2015 Election and the EnvironmentGreen Growth: The 2015 Election and the Environment
Green Growth: The 2015 Election and the EnvironmentIpsos UK
 
Trump vs Clinton - Polling Opinions: How the polls were wrong and how to fix...
Trump vs Clinton - Polling Opinions:  How the polls were wrong and how to fix...Trump vs Clinton - Polling Opinions:  How the polls were wrong and how to fix...
Trump vs Clinton - Polling Opinions: How the polls were wrong and how to fix...chrisbrock54
 
Reuters/Ipsos Data: Core Political (06/20/2018)
Reuters/Ipsos Data: Core Political (06/20/2018)Reuters/Ipsos Data: Core Political (06/20/2018)
Reuters/Ipsos Data: Core Political (06/20/2018)Ipsos Public Affairs
 
Reuters/Ipsos Core Political: Presidential Approval Tracker (07/29/2020)
Reuters/Ipsos Core Political: Presidential Approval Tracker (07/29/2020)Reuters/Ipsos Core Political: Presidential Approval Tracker (07/29/2020)
Reuters/Ipsos Core Political: Presidential Approval Tracker (07/29/2020)Ipsos Public Affairs
 
UJ survey on voters
UJ survey on voters UJ survey on voters
UJ survey on voters SABC News
 
Reuters/Ipsos Data: Core Political (04/25/2018)
Reuters/Ipsos Data: Core Political (04/25/2018)Reuters/Ipsos Data: Core Political (04/25/2018)
Reuters/Ipsos Data: Core Political (04/25/2018)Ipsos Public Affairs
 

Similar to The Death of Polling? (20)

Ipsos MORI General Election 2015 Briefing
Ipsos MORI General Election 2015 BriefingIpsos MORI General Election 2015 Briefing
Ipsos MORI General Election 2015 Briefing
 
Polling data to assess election campaigns: Why polling aggregation helps you ...
Polling data to assess election campaigns: Why polling aggregation helps you ...Polling data to assess election campaigns: Why polling aggregation helps you ...
Polling data to assess election campaigns: Why polling aggregation helps you ...
 
Ipsos MORI's initial view on polls accuracy in the UK's 2015 election
Ipsos MORI's initial view on polls accuracy in the UK's 2015 electionIpsos MORI's initial view on polls accuracy in the UK's 2015 election
Ipsos MORI's initial view on polls accuracy in the UK's 2015 election
 
RedC Poll, Richard Colwell- Autumn Seminar 2010
RedC Poll, Richard Colwell- Autumn Seminar 2010RedC Poll, Richard Colwell- Autumn Seminar 2010
RedC Poll, Richard Colwell- Autumn Seminar 2010
 
Reuters/Ipsos Core Political Survey: Presidential Approval Tracker (08/19/2020)
Reuters/Ipsos Core Political Survey: Presidential Approval Tracker (08/19/2020)Reuters/Ipsos Core Political Survey: Presidential Approval Tracker (08/19/2020)
Reuters/Ipsos Core Political Survey: Presidential Approval Tracker (08/19/2020)
 
Ipsos MORI General Election Briefing: The Final Week
Ipsos MORI General Election Briefing: The Final WeekIpsos MORI General Election Briefing: The Final Week
Ipsos MORI General Election Briefing: The Final Week
 
Attitudes to immigration: National issue or global challenge?
Attitudes to immigration: National issue or global challenge?Attitudes to immigration: National issue or global challenge?
Attitudes to immigration: National issue or global challenge?
 
Brute force effects of mass media presence and social media activity on elect...
Brute force effects of mass media presence and social media activity on elect...Brute force effects of mass media presence and social media activity on elect...
Brute force effects of mass media presence and social media activity on elect...
 
Beyond the Bubble - Labour Conference 2015
Beyond the Bubble - Labour Conference 2015Beyond the Bubble - Labour Conference 2015
Beyond the Bubble - Labour Conference 2015
 
Spinning the Election: Who is setting the Agenda in the UK General Election 2...
Spinning the Election: Who is setting the Agenda in the UK General Election 2...Spinning the Election: Who is setting the Agenda in the UK General Election 2...
Spinning the Election: Who is setting the Agenda in the UK General Election 2...
 
Immigration: How Views Change
Immigration: How Views ChangeImmigration: How Views Change
Immigration: How Views Change
 
2019 Reuters Tracking - Core Political 05 01 2019
2019 Reuters Tracking - Core Political 05 01 20192019 Reuters Tracking - Core Political 05 01 2019
2019 Reuters Tracking - Core Political 05 01 2019
 
General Election: One Year Out
General Election: One Year OutGeneral Election: One Year Out
General Election: One Year Out
 
Reuters/Ipsos Core Political: Presidential Approval Tracker (06/17/2020)
Reuters/Ipsos Core Political: Presidential Approval Tracker (06/17/2020)Reuters/Ipsos Core Political: Presidential Approval Tracker (06/17/2020)
Reuters/Ipsos Core Political: Presidential Approval Tracker (06/17/2020)
 
Green Growth: The 2015 Election and the Environment
Green Growth: The 2015 Election and the EnvironmentGreen Growth: The 2015 Election and the Environment
Green Growth: The 2015 Election and the Environment
 
Trump vs Clinton - Polling Opinions: How the polls were wrong and how to fix...
Trump vs Clinton - Polling Opinions:  How the polls were wrong and how to fix...Trump vs Clinton - Polling Opinions:  How the polls were wrong and how to fix...
Trump vs Clinton - Polling Opinions: How the polls were wrong and how to fix...
 
Reuters/Ipsos Data: Core Political (06/20/2018)
Reuters/Ipsos Data: Core Political (06/20/2018)Reuters/Ipsos Data: Core Political (06/20/2018)
Reuters/Ipsos Data: Core Political (06/20/2018)
 
Reuters/Ipsos Core Political: Presidential Approval Tracker (07/29/2020)
Reuters/Ipsos Core Political: Presidential Approval Tracker (07/29/2020)Reuters/Ipsos Core Political: Presidential Approval Tracker (07/29/2020)
Reuters/Ipsos Core Political: Presidential Approval Tracker (07/29/2020)
 
UJ survey on voters
UJ survey on voters UJ survey on voters
UJ survey on voters
 
Reuters/Ipsos Data: Core Political (04/25/2018)
Reuters/Ipsos Data: Core Political (04/25/2018)Reuters/Ipsos Data: Core Political (04/25/2018)
Reuters/Ipsos Data: Core Political (04/25/2018)
 

More from Ipsos UK

The Beat: 5 years on from the Brexit vote
The Beat: 5 years on from the Brexit voteThe Beat: 5 years on from the Brexit vote
The Beat: 5 years on from the Brexit voteIpsos UK
 
Bridging the gap: cyber security skills
Bridging the gap: cyber security skillsBridging the gap: cyber security skills
Bridging the gap: cyber security skillsIpsos UK
 
The state of cyber resilience in the UK
The state of cyber resilience in the UKThe state of cyber resilience in the UK
The state of cyber resilience in the UKIpsos UK
 
Ipsos Global Advisor: The Perils of Perception: Environment and Climate Change
Ipsos Global Advisor:  The Perils of Perception: Environment and Climate ChangeIpsos Global Advisor:  The Perils of Perception: Environment and Climate Change
Ipsos Global Advisor: The Perils of Perception: Environment and Climate ChangeIpsos UK
 
Ipsos Community: Quotes following the events around the vigil for Sarah Everard
Ipsos Community: Quotes following the events around the vigil for Sarah EverardIpsos Community: Quotes following the events around the vigil for Sarah Everard
Ipsos Community: Quotes following the events around the vigil for Sarah EverardIpsos UK
 
Global Infrastructure Index 2020
Global Infrastructure Index 2020Global Infrastructure Index 2020
Global Infrastructure Index 2020Ipsos UK
 
Women, work and COVID-19
Women, work and COVID-19Women, work and COVID-19
Women, work and COVID-19Ipsos UK
 
US Election 2020 Webinar - Ipsos MORI
US Election 2020 Webinar - Ipsos MORIUS Election 2020 Webinar - Ipsos MORI
US Election 2020 Webinar - Ipsos MORIIpsos UK
 
Sexual orientation and attitudes to LGBTQ+ in Britain
Sexual orientation and attitudes to LGBTQ+ in BritainSexual orientation and attitudes to LGBTQ+ in Britain
Sexual orientation and attitudes to LGBTQ+ in BritainIpsos UK
 
COVID-19: Conspiracies and Confusions and the link with Social Media
COVID-19: Conspiracies and Confusions and the link with Social MediaCOVID-19: Conspiracies and Confusions and the link with Social Media
COVID-19: Conspiracies and Confusions and the link with Social MediaIpsos UK
 
Solving the Cyber Security Skills Gap with DCMS
Solving the Cyber Security Skills Gap with DCMSSolving the Cyber Security Skills Gap with DCMS
Solving the Cyber Security Skills Gap with DCMSIpsos UK
 
Ipsos MORI Politial Pulse - April 2020
Ipsos MORI Politial Pulse - April 2020Ipsos MORI Politial Pulse - April 2020
Ipsos MORI Politial Pulse - April 2020Ipsos UK
 
Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - March 2020
Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - March 2020Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - March 2020
Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - March 2020Ipsos UK
 
International Women's Day 2020: What is acceptable behaviour in the workplace?
International Women's Day 2020: What is acceptable behaviour in the workplace?International Women's Day 2020: What is acceptable behaviour in the workplace?
International Women's Day 2020: What is acceptable behaviour in the workplace?Ipsos UK
 
Coronavirus Opinion and Reaction - Ipsos MORI
Coronavirus Opinion and Reaction - Ipsos MORICoronavirus Opinion and Reaction - Ipsos MORI
Coronavirus Opinion and Reaction - Ipsos MORIIpsos UK
 
The Perils of Perception 2020: Causes of Death
The Perils of Perception 2020: Causes of DeathThe Perils of Perception 2020: Causes of Death
The Perils of Perception 2020: Causes of DeathIpsos UK
 
Public Perception of Environmental Impact: Ipsos Omnibus Poll
Public Perception of Environmental Impact: Ipsos Omnibus PollPublic Perception of Environmental Impact: Ipsos Omnibus Poll
Public Perception of Environmental Impact: Ipsos Omnibus PollIpsos UK
 
Ipsos MORI Social Media Britain November 2019
Ipsos MORI Social Media Britain November 2019Ipsos MORI Social Media Britain November 2019
Ipsos MORI Social Media Britain November 2019Ipsos UK
 
Ipsos MORI 2019 General Election Campign Tracker - Housing
Ipsos MORI 2019 General Election Campign Tracker - HousingIpsos MORI 2019 General Election Campign Tracker - Housing
Ipsos MORI 2019 General Election Campign Tracker - HousingIpsos UK
 
Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - 6 December 2019
Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - 6 December 2019Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - 6 December 2019
Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - 6 December 2019Ipsos UK
 

More from Ipsos UK (20)

The Beat: 5 years on from the Brexit vote
The Beat: 5 years on from the Brexit voteThe Beat: 5 years on from the Brexit vote
The Beat: 5 years on from the Brexit vote
 
Bridging the gap: cyber security skills
Bridging the gap: cyber security skillsBridging the gap: cyber security skills
Bridging the gap: cyber security skills
 
The state of cyber resilience in the UK
The state of cyber resilience in the UKThe state of cyber resilience in the UK
The state of cyber resilience in the UK
 
Ipsos Global Advisor: The Perils of Perception: Environment and Climate Change
Ipsos Global Advisor:  The Perils of Perception: Environment and Climate ChangeIpsos Global Advisor:  The Perils of Perception: Environment and Climate Change
Ipsos Global Advisor: The Perils of Perception: Environment and Climate Change
 
Ipsos Community: Quotes following the events around the vigil for Sarah Everard
Ipsos Community: Quotes following the events around the vigil for Sarah EverardIpsos Community: Quotes following the events around the vigil for Sarah Everard
Ipsos Community: Quotes following the events around the vigil for Sarah Everard
 
Global Infrastructure Index 2020
Global Infrastructure Index 2020Global Infrastructure Index 2020
Global Infrastructure Index 2020
 
Women, work and COVID-19
Women, work and COVID-19Women, work and COVID-19
Women, work and COVID-19
 
US Election 2020 Webinar - Ipsos MORI
US Election 2020 Webinar - Ipsos MORIUS Election 2020 Webinar - Ipsos MORI
US Election 2020 Webinar - Ipsos MORI
 
Sexual orientation and attitudes to LGBTQ+ in Britain
Sexual orientation and attitudes to LGBTQ+ in BritainSexual orientation and attitudes to LGBTQ+ in Britain
Sexual orientation and attitudes to LGBTQ+ in Britain
 
COVID-19: Conspiracies and Confusions and the link with Social Media
COVID-19: Conspiracies and Confusions and the link with Social MediaCOVID-19: Conspiracies and Confusions and the link with Social Media
COVID-19: Conspiracies and Confusions and the link with Social Media
 
Solving the Cyber Security Skills Gap with DCMS
Solving the Cyber Security Skills Gap with DCMSSolving the Cyber Security Skills Gap with DCMS
Solving the Cyber Security Skills Gap with DCMS
 
Ipsos MORI Politial Pulse - April 2020
Ipsos MORI Politial Pulse - April 2020Ipsos MORI Politial Pulse - April 2020
Ipsos MORI Politial Pulse - April 2020
 
Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - March 2020
Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - March 2020Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - March 2020
Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - March 2020
 
International Women's Day 2020: What is acceptable behaviour in the workplace?
International Women's Day 2020: What is acceptable behaviour in the workplace?International Women's Day 2020: What is acceptable behaviour in the workplace?
International Women's Day 2020: What is acceptable behaviour in the workplace?
 
Coronavirus Opinion and Reaction - Ipsos MORI
Coronavirus Opinion and Reaction - Ipsos MORICoronavirus Opinion and Reaction - Ipsos MORI
Coronavirus Opinion and Reaction - Ipsos MORI
 
The Perils of Perception 2020: Causes of Death
The Perils of Perception 2020: Causes of DeathThe Perils of Perception 2020: Causes of Death
The Perils of Perception 2020: Causes of Death
 
Public Perception of Environmental Impact: Ipsos Omnibus Poll
Public Perception of Environmental Impact: Ipsos Omnibus PollPublic Perception of Environmental Impact: Ipsos Omnibus Poll
Public Perception of Environmental Impact: Ipsos Omnibus Poll
 
Ipsos MORI Social Media Britain November 2019
Ipsos MORI Social Media Britain November 2019Ipsos MORI Social Media Britain November 2019
Ipsos MORI Social Media Britain November 2019
 
Ipsos MORI 2019 General Election Campign Tracker - Housing
Ipsos MORI 2019 General Election Campign Tracker - HousingIpsos MORI 2019 General Election Campign Tracker - Housing
Ipsos MORI 2019 General Election Campign Tracker - Housing
 
Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - 6 December 2019
Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - 6 December 2019Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - 6 December 2019
Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - 6 December 2019
 

Recently uploaded

12052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
12052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf12052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
12052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
 
Income Tax Regime Dilemma – New VS. Old pdf
Income Tax Regime Dilemma – New VS. Old pdfIncome Tax Regime Dilemma – New VS. Old pdf
Income Tax Regime Dilemma – New VS. Old pdftaxguruedu
 
Top^Clinic ^%[+27785538335__Safe*Women's clinic//Abortion Pills In Musina
Top^Clinic ^%[+27785538335__Safe*Women's clinic//Abortion Pills In MusinaTop^Clinic ^%[+27785538335__Safe*Women's clinic//Abortion Pills In Musina
Top^Clinic ^%[+27785538335__Safe*Women's clinic//Abortion Pills In Musinadoctorjoe1984
 
Decentralisation and local government in India
Decentralisation and local government in IndiaDecentralisation and local government in India
Decentralisation and local government in IndiaTulsiTiwari4
 
Press-Information-Bureau-14-given-citizenship.pdf
Press-Information-Bureau-14-given-citizenship.pdfPress-Information-Bureau-14-given-citizenship.pdf
Press-Information-Bureau-14-given-citizenship.pdfbhavenpr
 
Indian Economy: The Challenge Ahead Since India gained
Indian Economy: The Challenge Ahead Since India gainedIndian Economy: The Challenge Ahead Since India gained
Indian Economy: The Challenge Ahead Since India gainedalianwarrr55
 
11052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
11052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf11052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
11052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
 
10052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
10052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf10052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
10052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
 
Textile Waste In India/managing-textile-waste-in-India
Textile Waste In India/managing-textile-waste-in-IndiaTextile Waste In India/managing-textile-waste-in-India
Textile Waste In India/managing-textile-waste-in-Indiatheunitedindian7
 
Analyzing Nepal's Third Investment Summit.pdf
Analyzing Nepal's Third Investment Summit.pdfAnalyzing Nepal's Third Investment Summit.pdf
Analyzing Nepal's Third Investment Summit.pdfYojana Investment
 

Recently uploaded (10)

12052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
12052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf12052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
12052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
 
Income Tax Regime Dilemma – New VS. Old pdf
Income Tax Regime Dilemma – New VS. Old pdfIncome Tax Regime Dilemma – New VS. Old pdf
Income Tax Regime Dilemma – New VS. Old pdf
 
Top^Clinic ^%[+27785538335__Safe*Women's clinic//Abortion Pills In Musina
Top^Clinic ^%[+27785538335__Safe*Women's clinic//Abortion Pills In MusinaTop^Clinic ^%[+27785538335__Safe*Women's clinic//Abortion Pills In Musina
Top^Clinic ^%[+27785538335__Safe*Women's clinic//Abortion Pills In Musina
 
Decentralisation and local government in India
Decentralisation and local government in IndiaDecentralisation and local government in India
Decentralisation and local government in India
 
Press-Information-Bureau-14-given-citizenship.pdf
Press-Information-Bureau-14-given-citizenship.pdfPress-Information-Bureau-14-given-citizenship.pdf
Press-Information-Bureau-14-given-citizenship.pdf
 
Indian Economy: The Challenge Ahead Since India gained
Indian Economy: The Challenge Ahead Since India gainedIndian Economy: The Challenge Ahead Since India gained
Indian Economy: The Challenge Ahead Since India gained
 
11052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
11052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf11052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
11052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
 
10052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
10052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf10052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
10052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
 
Textile Waste In India/managing-textile-waste-in-India
Textile Waste In India/managing-textile-waste-in-IndiaTextile Waste In India/managing-textile-waste-in-India
Textile Waste In India/managing-textile-waste-in-India
 
Analyzing Nepal's Third Investment Summit.pdf
Analyzing Nepal's Third Investment Summit.pdfAnalyzing Nepal's Third Investment Summit.pdf
Analyzing Nepal's Third Investment Summit.pdf
 

The Death of Polling?

  • 1. The Death of Polling Version 1 Public 1 Death of Polling? The #ipsosmorilive
  • 2. The Death of Polling Version 1 Public 2 Ben Page, Ipsos MORI Agenda Julia Clark, Ipsos USA David Ahlin, Ipsos Sweden Nando Pagnoncelli, Ipsos Italy Darrell Bricker, Ipsos Canada Q&A
  • 3. The Death of Polling Version 1 Public 3 Ben Page Ipsos MORI ben.page@ipsos.com #ipsosmorilive
  • 4. 4The Death of Polling? Version 1 Public Sadly not everywhere looks like this … Average candidate error in US Presidential Elections (INDIV CAND SHARE) 1936 6% 1.5% 2012
  • 5. 5The Death of Polling? Version 1 Public There’s a global Ipsos has carried out election conversation going on about polling polling in c30 countries since 2007
  • 6. 6The Death of Polling? Version 1 Public And pollsters all around the world are How do we achieve a representative sample? How do we predict turnout accurately? having to face up to hard questions How do we make best use of the increasing range of methodologies open to us? How do we ensure our polls are reported well and understood among the media, politicians and the public?How do we avoid other biases, such as social desirability?
  • 7. 7The Death of Polling? Version 1 Public ... although our answers Size/diversity of population Turnout levels/compulsory voting Stable party system or new insurgents? Generational declines in party loyalty Societal/cultural context Media expectations vs budgets and levels of polling transparency? Survey researchers or moving towards big data modelling? National polls vs local/state-level polling? Traditional face-to-face methods vs new or mixed modes? And in any one country likely to be good and bad examples of each! may be very different!
  • 8. The Death of Polling Version 1 Public 8 UK experience The
  • 9. 9The Death of Polling? Version 1 Public British Polling Council Selection of samples (their main explanation) Representativeness of sample (key among explanations) Correction for likelihood of voting (less important) Late swing (some signs, but not that important) Herding (unproven) Inquiry Interim findings
  • 10. 10The Death of Polling? Version 1 Public Our final poll – all parties less than 2% points away How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? from actual – except Labour, overestimated 36% 35% 11% 5% 8% 5% Ipsos MORI final poll GB final result Conservative lead = +1 Conservative lead = +6.5 CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP GREEN LIB DEM OTHER 37.7% 31.2% 12.9% 3.8% 8.1% 6.4%
  • 11. 11The Death of Polling? Version 1 Public ‘Shy Tories’ not our problem – instead too How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? many Labour voters and not enough non-voters Conservatives Labour Non voters 11.3m 12.5m 9.3m 12.2m 20.5m 15.4m Actual Implied from final poll
  • 12. The Death of Polling Version 1 Public 12 Ipsos MORI’s view: We need to take a two-pronged approach – tackle the problem of more politically engaged taking part and also making sure we can detect differential shift in turnout over-claim between parties
  • 13. The Death of Polling Version 1 Public 13 Ipsos MORI’s view: Healthy scepticism not the death of polling
  • 14. 14The Death of Polling? Version 1 Public We need to improve representation of No easy answers to this (especially bearing in mind budget and time Constraints) politically disengaged/non-voters in our samples Already introduced newspaper weighting (for example to reduce proportion of broadsheet readers). In four months from September to December 2015 this: • Reduced the proportion of claimed likely voters by an average of 3 percentage points a month • Primarily at the expense of the Labour share (down on average by 3 points, Conservatives up by 1.75 points) But will continue other experiments (for example changes in quotas, and so on)
  • 15. 15The Death of Polling? Version 1 Public Random samples after election though do not appear to be hugely more representative than our quota ones Election result Final telephone polls (average) Final Ipsos MORI poll British Social Attitudes British Election Study1 Ipsos MORI post- GE past vote (June-July) Voting intentions2 Difference from result Voting intentions Difference from result Report of vote Difference from result Report of vote Difference from result Report of vote Difference from result % % % % % % Con. 37.7 34.5 -3.2 36 -1.7 39.7 +2.0 40.6 +2.9 37.9 +0.2 Labour 31.2 34.3 +3.1 35 +3.8 33.6 +2.4 32.7 +1.5 32.5 +1.3 Other parties 31.2 31.2 0.0 29 -2.2 26.7 -4.5 26.7 -4.5 29.6 -1.6
  • 16. The Death of Polling Version 1 Public 16 The Death of Polling? So much more than a horse race
  • 17. 17The Death of Polling? Version 1 Public So much more richness in the polls to help us understand public opinion
  • 18. 18The Death of Polling? Version 1 Public Not to mention giving voters a chance to express their views
  • 19. 19The Death of Polling? Version 1 Public Or using twitter analytics to get live, real-time reactions to the big events: 239,000 tweets in the 2nd debate Twitter ‘worm’ – real time analysis of reaction to second leader debate (2,500+ per minute)
  • 20. 20The Death of Polling? Version 1 Public And using new digital techniques to get closer to voters 7426 posts across 340 forum topics c.2000 members from across the UK Over 7500 survey responses
  • 21. The Death of Polling Version 1 Public 21 Julia Clark Ipsos USA julia.clark@ipsos.com #ipsosmorilive
  • 23. More Data Than Ever 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Jan-60 Dec-60 Nov-61 Oct-62 Sep-63 Aug-64 Jul-65 Jun-66 May-67 Apr-68 Mar-69 Feb-70 Jan-71 Dec-71 Nov-72 Oct-73 Sep-74 Aug-75 Jul-76 Jun-77 May-78 Apr-79 Mar-80 Feb-81 Jan-82 Dec-82 Nov-83 Oct-84 Sep-85 Aug-86 Jul-87 Jun-88 May-89 Apr-90 Mar-91 Feb-92 Jan-93 Dec-93 Nov-94 Oct-95 Sep-96 Aug-97 Jul-98 Jun-99 May-00 Apr-01 Mar-02 Feb-03 Jan-04 Dec-04 Nov-05 Oct-06 Sep-07 Aug-08 Jul-09 Jun-10 May-11 Apr-12 Number of Polls per month - 1960 - 2013Number of Polls per Month – 1960 - 2013 17,058 polls in 2012
  • 24. Current US Political Polling Methodologies PHONE RDD Lists IVR (Robo) TRADITIONAL ONLINE Probability Panel Only Lists Blended NONTRADITIONAL ONLINE SurveyMonkey Google
  • 25. Great Variation Among Pollsters 2 5
  • 26. Constantly Changing Questionnaire (daily) Election Day ‘Exit Poll’ of 40,000 Voters Continual Survey: 11,000/month (24/7/365) Daily Assessing Events Same-Day (Parsing) 26 State-level polls (2k) with rolling reporting What Does Ipsos Do?
  • 27.
  • 28. A VERY QUICK WORD ON THE US ELECTION…
  • 29. ANTI-ESTABLISHMENT THEME: But Differential Framing of Problems & Causes The rich are to blame Middle Class Economics Americans First Restarting American Exceptionalism VS.
  • 30. Trump & Sanders are the Response 17% 5% 5% 6% 13% 3% 3% 29% 19% Trump Cruz Carson Otheroutsiders(Paul, Fiorina,etc) Establishment(Bush, Rubio,etc) Wouldn'tvote O'Malley Clinton Sanders Republicans (46%) Democrats (51%) 46% of Americans are supporting “nontraditional” candidates
  • 31. Political Fundamentals Speak to a Republican Year 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% Government Approval Rating OddsofWinning Incumbent Party’s Odds of Winning White House SUCCESSORS INCUMBENTS (2012)
  • 32. … AND LOW TURNOUT BENEFITS THE REPUBLICANS TOO Source: Reuters / Ipsos Poll; Sept-Oct 2014 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 51 50 49 49 48 47 47 47 44 44 45 46 46 48 Republican Vote Democratic Vote 2012 TurnoutActual 2014 Turnout GenericCongressionalVoteShare Turnout Level (by Likely Voter Model) 2014 Generic Congressional Ballot by Turnout Levels
  • 33. The Death of Polling Version 1 Public 33 Nando Pagnoncelli Ipsos Italy nando.pagnoncelli@ipsos.com #ipsosmorilive
  • 34. 34 © 2015 Ipsos. THE PREDOMINANCE OF COMPLEXITY THE ELECTORAL SCENARIO IN ITALY - 2013 169 parties and movements 2
  • 35. 35 © 2015 Ipsos. A GAME CHANGER EFFECT THE EVOLUTION OF THE ELECTOR ELECTORATES become fluid, reactive to the political offer, they lose their sense of belonging 2013 is the end of a 20-year period of almost perfect turnover between centre-left and centre-right, during which • neither coalition was in office for two turns in a row • voters switches between the two coalitions were residual 3
  • 36. 36 © 2015 Ipsos. A GAME CHANGER EFFECT MOVIMENTO 5 STELLE in 2013 we experienced a political earthquake or, a tsunami 4
  • 37. 37 © 2015 Ipsos. A GAME CHANGER EFFECT MOVIMENTO 5 STELLE … with victims, politicians … … and pollster alike they got a shock we got it wrong 5
  • 38. 38 © 2015 Ipsos. EVERYBODY BECAME A POLLING EXPERT, except the experts THE POLLSTERS UNDER ACCUSATION Discussions went on for weeks on the limits of polls  Methodologies  Sample size  Coverage  Bias  … were discussed and commented and criticised by anybody and all on TV, in newspapers, online forum, social networks, workplaces and cafés 6
  • 39. 39 © 2015 Ipsos. Tecnè Demos Ipsos diff vs. actual results RIVOLUZIONE CIVILE 0,9% 0,9% 1,0% SEL 0,0% 0,4% 0,4% PD 4,9% 3,7% 4,9% ALTRI CENTRO SINISTRA -0,4% -0,5% -0,4% TOTALE CENTROSINISTRA 4,5% 3,6% 4,9% CON MONTI PER L'ITALIA -0,9% 2,0% 0,4% UDC 0,8% 1,0% 0,7% FLI 0,0% 0,2% 0,2% TOTALE CENTRO -0,1% 3,2% 1,3% LEGA NORD 1,0% 1,2% -0,1% PDL -0,3% -1,5% -1,4% ALTRI CENTRO DESTRA -0,7% -0,7% 0,6% TOTALE CENTRODESTRA 0,0% -1,0% -0,9% MOVIMENTO 5 STELLE BEPPEGRILLO.IT -5,8% -6,6% -5,6% POLLSTERS WERE INACCURATE THE POLLSTERS UNDER ACCUSATION WHAT WENT WRONG WHY IT WENT WRONG For all the major agencies in Italy • overestimated the Democratic Party’s • underestimated the M5S result • No past voters behaviour on M5S, which is a key component of the weighting process • The difficulties of intercepting the potential M5S voters • reticence in centre-left supporters to declare their intention • last minute swing (25% estimated to have decided 2 days before) • A high refusal rate, affecting differently the various groups of respondents (10 contacts to get a valid interview) • Respondents lie 7
  • 40. 40 © 2015 Ipsos. BUT SOME WERE MORE ACCURATE THAN OTHERS THE POLLSTERS UNDER ACCUSATION WHAT WENT RIGHT WHY IT WENT RIGHT IPSOS correctly described the scenario • The high level of abstention (26,5%) • The dramatic growth of M5S • The victory of the centre-left at the Chamber of Deputies • The hung Senate • All the other parties’ results Because • A mixed sampling method was used • Sample sizes were large enough • We had been polling continuously – weekly, even daily – for a long time • We had a wealth of data • We had lots of analyses on targets, geographical areas, voters switch dynamics 8
  • 41. 41 © 2015 Ipsos. THE PREDOMINANCE OF MADNESS THE POLLSTERS CHALLENGE Our stakeholders show a schizophrenic attitude • one minute, they attack us, because we couldn’t predict the future as exactly as we are expected to • the minute after, they ask for data, comments, explanations, because they need our expertise in interpretation We would like to see expectations decrease, towards the predictive nature of our work but we know it’s inconceivable 9
  • 42. 42 © 2015 Ipsos. THE FlashForward Effect THE POLLSTERS CHALLENGE … and everyone acted consequently. Polls act as an activator of two powerful, contrasting forces in electors • Self-fulfilling prophecies vs. • Self-defeating prophecies “On October 6, the planet blacked out for two minutes and seventeen seconds. The whole world saw the future...” 10
  • 43. The Death of Polling Version 1 Public 43 David Ahlin Ipsos Sweden david.ahlin@ipsos.com #ipsosmorilive
  • 44. 2,9 (2006) 5,7 (2010) 12,9 (2014) 0 10 20 30 Electoral support for the Sweden Democrats 2006-2016 2006 2010 2014
  • 45. 0 30 60 Left-Right Parties Election 2006 Left-Right Parties February 2016 From two political blocks to three – in ten years
  • 46. Immigration most pressing issue and Voter support for Sweden Democrats 5 8 13 20 20 40 6 7 9 12 14 17 0 20 40 June-2010 June-2014 Aug-2014 Jan-2015 Jun-2015 Jan-2016 Immigration/integration most pressing issue Voter support for the Sweden Democrats
  • 47. Immigration most pressing issue and google searches for “refugee” in Swedish 8 13 20 20 40 0 20 40 60 80 100 June-2014 Aug-2014 Jan-2015 June 2015 Jan-2016 Number of people say immigration/integration issues are most pressing issue The number of searches on the word ”Refugee” on Google in Swedish during the same time period
  • 48. 17.2 23.9 0 20 Average voter support Telephone based methods Average voter support Web based methods Voter support Sweden Democrats based on method of measurement Feb 2016
  • 49. 49 © 2015 Ipsos. The state of polling 2016 SWEDEN Social effects / Interviewer effects Higher share of non- response in strong Sweden Democrat regions From 45 % – 25 % in the last six years SOCIAL EFFECTS AND NON-RESPONSE DROPPING RESPONSE RATES Less than 50 per cent with younger Swedes Not a problem with seniors SAMPLE COVERAGE Telephone calls only for close friends and family? (Pew 2015) Web based and telephone based give different answers Transparency! Mobile first strategy? NEW BEHAVIORS NEW METHODS
  • 50. The Death of Polling Version 1 Public 50 Darrell Bricker Ipsos Canada darrell.bricker@ipsos.com #ipsosmorilive
  • 51. 51 © 2015 Ipsos. Ipsos Final Poll vs. Actual Election Results—National ELECTION DEBRIEF Ipsos Final Poll Election Results 38% 40% 31% 32% 22% 20% 4% 5% 4% 4% Base: Final Call Poll (Decided Voters, Leaners Included n=2,226; Online n=1,328; CATI n=898) Weighting: 50/50 telephone/online, education, region, thumb
  • 52. 52 © 2015 Ipsos. Online/Telephone Research (Call Poll) ELECTION DEBRIEF 2 waves consisting of minimum sample sizes of: 1/3 1/3 1/3 Ampario Allocated Reallocated 1,000 Telephone Completes  1,000 Online OMNI  roughly: 40% cellphone 3-day field window   Sample blended together to create 4 quadrants: 1) telephone landline; 2) telephone cell; 3) online panel, and 4) online non-panel - Result somewhere in the middle… and KEY BENEFITS:  Telephone poll to act as a gut check on our online  greater confidence in our figures  Triangulation among various sample sources mitigates bias of any one methodology  Allows us to formulate a weighting scheme to mitigate panel bias
  • 53. 53 © 2015 Ipsos. Call Poll Sample Breakdown ELECTION DEBRIEF Base: Final Call Poll (Total n=2,503; Online n=1,502; CATI n=1,001) 16% 24% 13% 47% CATI Mobile CATI Landline Online Ampario Online Panel 60% Online 40% CATI
  • 54. 54 © 2015 Ipsos. What We Learned 54 © 2015 Ipsos.
  • 55. 55 © 2015 Ipsos. Lessons Learned and Next Steps ELECTION DEBRIEF Mixed mode methods show promise. Ipsos will continue to explore and share what we learn. Offset biases associated with specific modes of data collection with minimum weighting.
  • 56. 56 © 2015 Ipsos. Lessons Learned and Next Steps ELECTION DEBRIEF Online and offline methods consistently under and over-estimate specific demographic groups. Also, over and under-estimate specific voter mindsets. Evidence building that: …online overestimates progressive voters …telephone overestimates conservative voters.
  • 57. 57 © 2015 Ipsos. Lessons Learned and Next Steps ELECTION DEBRIEF LIKELY VOTER ESTIMATES, while logically attractive, work better in theory than in practice. What’s missing? How do we make them better?
  • 58. 58 © 2015 Ipsos. Likely Voter Model A REGRESSION MODEL BASED ON… PAST BEHAVIOUR INTENT TO VOTE INTEREST IN ELECTION
  • 59. 59 © 2015 Ipsos. Final Weighted Call Poll by Likely Voter ELECTION DEBRIEF 38% 37% 37% 37% 37% 31% 32% 32% 33% 32% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22% 4% 2% 2% 2% 3% 4% 5% 5% 5% 4% Final 55% Turnout 60% Turnout 65% Turnout 70% Turnout Liberals Conservative NDP Green Bloc Base: Final Call Poll (Online Total Decided Voters n=1,328; I-Say Allocated n=427; I-Say Re-Allocated n=624; Ampario n=277) Weighting: 50/50 telephone/online, education, region, thumb
  • 60. The Death of Polling Version 1 Public 60 Thanks for listening Q&A #ipsosmorilive