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Prepared for
International Seminar on Electoral Boundaries Delimitation
                Instituto Federal Electoral
               Mexico City, November 2012




           Redistricting Algorithms

   Micah Altman <micah_altman@alumni.brown.edu>
                 Director of Research -- MIT Libraries,
                Massachusetts Institute of Technology
                          Non-Resident Senior Fellow,
                                 Brookings Institution
Collaborators*
   Michael P. McDonald
    Associate Professor
    Department of Public and International Affairs
    George Mason University
    Web: http://elections.gmu.edu

   Karin Mac Donald
    Director, Statewide Database & Election Administration
    Research Center
    U.C. Berkeley
    Web: http://swdb.berkeley.edu/


   Research Support
    Thanks to the Sloan Foundation, the Joyce Foundation, National
      Science Foundation
                                                         * And co-conspirators

2                             Redistricting Algorithms                 [11/9/2012]
Related Work
                                    Reprints available from:
                                     http://micahaltman.com

       M. Altman, (1997). "Is Automation the Answer? The Computational Complexity
        of Automated Redistricting", Rutgers Computer and Technology Law Journal 23 (1).
       M. Altman, (1998). "Modeling the Effect of Mandatory District Compactness on
        Partisan Gerrymanders", Political Geography 17 (8): 989-1012.
       M. Altman, (2002). "A Bayesian Approach to Detecting Electoral Manipulation"
        Political Geography 22(1).
       M. Altman, K. Mac Donald, and M. P. McDonald, (2005). "From Crayons to
        Computers: The Evolution of Computer Use in Redistricting" Social Science
        Computer Review 23(3).
       M. Altman, K. Mac Donald, and M. P. McDonald, (2005). "Pushbutton
        Gerrymanders", in Party Lines: Competition, Partisanship, and Congressional
        Redistricting Thomas E. Mann and Bruce E. Cain (eds), Brookings Press.
       M. Altman & M.P. McDonald. (2010) “The Promises and Perils of Computer Use
        in Redistricting”, Duke Constitutional Law and Policy Journal, 5(69).
       M. Altman & M.P. McDonald. (2011). "BARD: Better Automated Redistricting."
        Journal of Statistical Software 42(4).
       M. Altman, & M. P. McDonald, (2012). ”Technology for Public Participation in
        Rdistricting", in Redistricting and Reapportionment in the West, G. Moncrief (ed.),
        Lexington Press.


    3                                  Redistricting Algorithms                   [11/9/2012]
How are computers used in redistricting?




4                Redistricting Algorithms   [11/9/2012]
Evolution of Computing for Redistricting




5                 Redistricting Algorithms   [11/9/2012]
Automated Redistricting Is Easy
    -- If you ignore solution quality




       Choose a starting point
       Examine local trades
        – choose one that yield most improvement
       Repeat until no further improvement is possible

6                     Redistricting Algorithms     [11/9/2012]
The Quality Problem – Local Optimum




   Automated redistricting algorithms yield a solution
   Practical algorithms not guaranteed to yield best solution




7                         Redistricting Algorithms     [11/9/2012]
Automated Redistricting is Fundamentally Difficult
   Why      not look at all possible solutions?

           1                       r! 
               r
 S ( n,r) = ∑ ( −1) ( r − i)
                     r        n
                                            =
           r! i= 0             ( r − i) !i!

                   (TOO MANY)
   Redistricting using common criteria is NP-complete
    [Altman 1997; Puppe & Tasnadi 2008, 2009]
   Not mathematically possible to find optimal solutions
    to general redistricting criteria!
   8                          Redistricting Algorithms   [11/9/2012]
State of the Art -- Exact solutions
   Enumeration – [30-50 geographical units]
       Explicit enumeration intractable even for small #’s of units
       Early work with implicit enumeration (branch and cut) yielded
        solutions for 30-50 units [E.g. Mehohtra, et. al 1998]
   Integer Programming – [100’s of units]
       School districting problem solved for < 500 units.
        [Caro et. al 2004]
       Integer programming applied to < 400 units, but used early
        termination, rendering solution non-exact. [Shirabe 2009]




9                             Redistricting Algorithms         [11/9/2012]
State of the Art – Non-Exact Algorithms
    “Redistricter” [Olson 2008]
      Specialized for compactness and population
      uses kmeans with ad-hoc refinements (including annealing) to solve
      Using 500000 census blocks can find solutions within 1% of population

    General Metaheuristics [Altman & McDonald 2010]
      Framework for multiple metaheuristics & criteria

    iRedistrict [Guo 2011]
        General criteria
        Tabu search, agglomeration, enhanced by connected-components trading
        Successful for 1000’s of units
    IFE System [Trelles 2007]
      Complete GIS interface for redistricting – not just an optimization algorithm
      Successfully used for automated redistricting of 1000’s of units in Mexico


    Other notable algorithms
      Q State Pott’s Model [Chou and Li 2007]
      Shortest Split-line [Kai et al 2007]
      Ad Hoc Greedy Heuristics [Sakguchi and Wado 2008]
      Genetic Algorithm w/TSP Encoding [Forman and Yu 2003]
      Annealing [Andrade & Garcia 2009]
      Tabu Seach [Bozkaya et. al 2003]
      Weighted Voronoi Diagrams [Ricca, et. al 2008]




    10                                       Redistricting Algorithms                  [11/9/2012]
Conclusions
             Algorithms are an advance in redistricting – and they are a part of the solution

Solutions  depend on starting values
Solutions depend on good data
Some algorithms assume particular criteria
Some criteria are more tractable to optimization
And it is difficult to answer the question how good is this solution?


                                                  Some implications

Algorithms      matter
   -- Same criteria + same data + different algorithm = different result
Code    Matters
-- Difficult to externally verify implementation of a complex algorithm

Transparency        and public participation matters
      Open documentation allows for external replication of algorithms
      Open source allows external verification of implementation of algorithms
      Public input provides local community data for use in algorithmic redistricting
      Publicly submitted plans can provide good starting points for algorithmic refinement
      Public review of algorithmically created plans can help verify the quality of the solution



 11                                             Redistricting Algorithms                            [11/9/2012]
Additional References
    J. Aerts, C.J.H,. Erwin Eisinger,Gerard B.M. Heuvelink and Theodor J. Stewart, 2003. “Using Linear Integer Programming for Multi-Site Land-Use
     Allocation”, Geographical Analysis 35(2) 148-69.
    M. Andrade and E. Garcia 2009, “Redistricting by Square Cells”, A. Hernández Aguirre et al. (Eds.): MICAI 2009, LNAI 5845, pp. 669–679, 2009.
    J. Barabas & J. Jerit, 2004. "Redistricting Principles and Racial Representation," State and Politics Quarterly¸4 (4): 415-435.
    B. Bozkaya, E. Erkut and G. Laporte 2003, A Tabu Search Heuristic and Adaptive Memory Procedure for Political Districting. European Journal of
     Operational Re- search 144(1) 12-26.
    F. Caro et al . , School redistricting: embedding GIS tools with integer programming Journal of the Operational Research Society (2004) 55, 836–849
    PG di Cortona, Manzi C, Pennisi A, Ricca F, Simeone B (1999). Evaluation and Optimization of Electoral Systems. SIAM Pres, Philadelphia.
    J.C. Duque, 2007. "Supervised Regionalization Methods: A Survey" International Regional Science Review, Vol. 30, No. 3, 195-220
    S Forman & Y. Yue 2003, Congressional Districting Using a TSP-Based Genetic Algorithm
    Guo D. and H. Jin (2011). "iRedistrict: Geovisual Analytics for Redistricting Optimization", Journal of Visual Languages and Computing,
     doi:10.1016/j.jvlc.2011.03.001
    P. Kai, Tan Yue, Jiang Sheng, 2007, “The study of a new gerrymandering methodology”, Manuscript. http://arxiv.org/abs/0708.2266
    J. Kalcsics, S. Nickel, M. Schroeder, 2009. A Geometric Approach to Territory Design and Districting, Fraunhofer Insititut techno und
     Wirtshaftsmethematik. Dissertation.
    A. Mehrotra, E.L. Johnson, G.L. Nemhauser (1998), An optimization based heuristic for political districting, Management Science 44, 1100-1114.
    B. Olson, 2008 Redistricter. Software Package. URL: http://code.google.com/p/redistricter/
    C. Puppe,, Attlia Tasnadi, 2009. "Optimal redistricting under geographical constraints: Why “pack and crack” does not work", Economics Letter
     105:93-96
    C. Puppe,, Attlia Tasnadi, 2008. "A computational approach to unbiased districting", Mathematical and Computer Modeling 48(9-10), November 2008,
     Pages 1455-1460
    F. Ricca, A. Scozzari and B. Simeone, Weighted Voronoi Region Algorithms for Political Districting. Mathematical Computer Modelling forthcoming
     (2008).
    F. Ricci, C, Bruno Simeone, 2008, "Local search algorithms for political districting", European Journal of Operational Research189, Issue 3, 16
     September 2008, Pages 1409-1426
    T. Shirabe, 2009. District modeling with exact contiguity constraints, Environment and Planning B (35) 1-14
    Trelles, A. 2007. Electoral Boundaries, The Contribution of Mexico´s Redistricting Model to California. Mexico DF: ITAM.
    S. ,Toshihiro and Junichiro Wado. 2008, "Automating the Districting Process: An Experiment Using a Japanese Case Study" in Lisa Handley and
     Bernard Grofman (ed.) Redistricting in Comparative Perspective, Oxford University Press
    D.H. Wolpert, Macready, W.G. (1997), "No Free Lunch Theorems for Optimization," IEEE Transactions on Evolutionary Computation 1, 67
    N. Xiao, 2003. Geographical Optimization using Evolutionay Alogroithms, University of Iowa. Dissertation

    12                                                          Redistricting Algorithms                                                       [11/9/2012]
Questions & Contact




         http://micahaltman.com
         micah_altman@alumni.brown. edu




13               Redistricting Algorithms   [11/9/2012]

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Redistricting Algorithms

  • 1. Prepared for International Seminar on Electoral Boundaries Delimitation Instituto Federal Electoral Mexico City, November 2012 Redistricting Algorithms Micah Altman <micah_altman@alumni.brown.edu> Director of Research -- MIT Libraries, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution
  • 2. Collaborators*  Michael P. McDonald Associate Professor Department of Public and International Affairs George Mason University Web: http://elections.gmu.edu  Karin Mac Donald Director, Statewide Database & Election Administration Research Center U.C. Berkeley Web: http://swdb.berkeley.edu/  Research Support Thanks to the Sloan Foundation, the Joyce Foundation, National Science Foundation * And co-conspirators 2 Redistricting Algorithms [11/9/2012]
  • 3. Related Work Reprints available from: http://micahaltman.com  M. Altman, (1997). "Is Automation the Answer? The Computational Complexity of Automated Redistricting", Rutgers Computer and Technology Law Journal 23 (1).  M. Altman, (1998). "Modeling the Effect of Mandatory District Compactness on Partisan Gerrymanders", Political Geography 17 (8): 989-1012.  M. Altman, (2002). "A Bayesian Approach to Detecting Electoral Manipulation" Political Geography 22(1).  M. Altman, K. Mac Donald, and M. P. McDonald, (2005). "From Crayons to Computers: The Evolution of Computer Use in Redistricting" Social Science Computer Review 23(3).  M. Altman, K. Mac Donald, and M. P. McDonald, (2005). "Pushbutton Gerrymanders", in Party Lines: Competition, Partisanship, and Congressional Redistricting Thomas E. Mann and Bruce E. Cain (eds), Brookings Press.  M. Altman & M.P. McDonald. (2010) “The Promises and Perils of Computer Use in Redistricting”, Duke Constitutional Law and Policy Journal, 5(69).  M. Altman & M.P. McDonald. (2011). "BARD: Better Automated Redistricting." Journal of Statistical Software 42(4).  M. Altman, & M. P. McDonald, (2012). ”Technology for Public Participation in Rdistricting", in Redistricting and Reapportionment in the West, G. Moncrief (ed.), Lexington Press. 3 Redistricting Algorithms [11/9/2012]
  • 4. How are computers used in redistricting? 4 Redistricting Algorithms [11/9/2012]
  • 5. Evolution of Computing for Redistricting 5 Redistricting Algorithms [11/9/2012]
  • 6. Automated Redistricting Is Easy -- If you ignore solution quality  Choose a starting point  Examine local trades – choose one that yield most improvement  Repeat until no further improvement is possible 6 Redistricting Algorithms [11/9/2012]
  • 7. The Quality Problem – Local Optimum  Automated redistricting algorithms yield a solution  Practical algorithms not guaranteed to yield best solution 7 Redistricting Algorithms [11/9/2012]
  • 8. Automated Redistricting is Fundamentally Difficult  Why not look at all possible solutions? 1  r!  r S ( n,r) = ∑ ( −1) ( r − i) r n = r! i= 0  ( r − i) !i! (TOO MANY)  Redistricting using common criteria is NP-complete [Altman 1997; Puppe & Tasnadi 2008, 2009]  Not mathematically possible to find optimal solutions to general redistricting criteria! 8 Redistricting Algorithms [11/9/2012]
  • 9. State of the Art -- Exact solutions  Enumeration – [30-50 geographical units]  Explicit enumeration intractable even for small #’s of units  Early work with implicit enumeration (branch and cut) yielded solutions for 30-50 units [E.g. Mehohtra, et. al 1998]  Integer Programming – [100’s of units]  School districting problem solved for < 500 units. [Caro et. al 2004]  Integer programming applied to < 400 units, but used early termination, rendering solution non-exact. [Shirabe 2009] 9 Redistricting Algorithms [11/9/2012]
  • 10. State of the Art – Non-Exact Algorithms  “Redistricter” [Olson 2008]  Specialized for compactness and population  uses kmeans with ad-hoc refinements (including annealing) to solve  Using 500000 census blocks can find solutions within 1% of population  General Metaheuristics [Altman & McDonald 2010]  Framework for multiple metaheuristics & criteria  iRedistrict [Guo 2011]  General criteria  Tabu search, agglomeration, enhanced by connected-components trading  Successful for 1000’s of units  IFE System [Trelles 2007]  Complete GIS interface for redistricting – not just an optimization algorithm  Successfully used for automated redistricting of 1000’s of units in Mexico  Other notable algorithms  Q State Pott’s Model [Chou and Li 2007]  Shortest Split-line [Kai et al 2007]  Ad Hoc Greedy Heuristics [Sakguchi and Wado 2008]  Genetic Algorithm w/TSP Encoding [Forman and Yu 2003]  Annealing [Andrade & Garcia 2009]  Tabu Seach [Bozkaya et. al 2003]  Weighted Voronoi Diagrams [Ricca, et. al 2008] 10 Redistricting Algorithms [11/9/2012]
  • 11. Conclusions Algorithms are an advance in redistricting – and they are a part of the solution Solutions depend on starting values Solutions depend on good data Some algorithms assume particular criteria Some criteria are more tractable to optimization And it is difficult to answer the question how good is this solution? Some implications Algorithms matter -- Same criteria + same data + different algorithm = different result Code Matters -- Difficult to externally verify implementation of a complex algorithm Transparency and public participation matters  Open documentation allows for external replication of algorithms  Open source allows external verification of implementation of algorithms  Public input provides local community data for use in algorithmic redistricting  Publicly submitted plans can provide good starting points for algorithmic refinement  Public review of algorithmically created plans can help verify the quality of the solution 11 Redistricting Algorithms [11/9/2012]
  • 12. Additional References  J. Aerts, C.J.H,. Erwin Eisinger,Gerard B.M. Heuvelink and Theodor J. Stewart, 2003. “Using Linear Integer Programming for Multi-Site Land-Use Allocation”, Geographical Analysis 35(2) 148-69.  M. Andrade and E. Garcia 2009, “Redistricting by Square Cells”, A. Hernández Aguirre et al. (Eds.): MICAI 2009, LNAI 5845, pp. 669–679, 2009.  J. Barabas & J. Jerit, 2004. "Redistricting Principles and Racial Representation," State and Politics Quarterly¸4 (4): 415-435.  B. Bozkaya, E. Erkut and G. Laporte 2003, A Tabu Search Heuristic and Adaptive Memory Procedure for Political Districting. European Journal of Operational Re- search 144(1) 12-26.  F. Caro et al . , School redistricting: embedding GIS tools with integer programming Journal of the Operational Research Society (2004) 55, 836–849  PG di Cortona, Manzi C, Pennisi A, Ricca F, Simeone B (1999). Evaluation and Optimization of Electoral Systems. SIAM Pres, Philadelphia.  J.C. Duque, 2007. "Supervised Regionalization Methods: A Survey" International Regional Science Review, Vol. 30, No. 3, 195-220  S Forman & Y. Yue 2003, Congressional Districting Using a TSP-Based Genetic Algorithm  Guo D. and H. Jin (2011). "iRedistrict: Geovisual Analytics for Redistricting Optimization", Journal of Visual Languages and Computing, doi:10.1016/j.jvlc.2011.03.001  P. Kai, Tan Yue, Jiang Sheng, 2007, “The study of a new gerrymandering methodology”, Manuscript. http://arxiv.org/abs/0708.2266  J. Kalcsics, S. Nickel, M. Schroeder, 2009. A Geometric Approach to Territory Design and Districting, Fraunhofer Insititut techno und Wirtshaftsmethematik. Dissertation.  A. Mehrotra, E.L. Johnson, G.L. Nemhauser (1998), An optimization based heuristic for political districting, Management Science 44, 1100-1114.  B. Olson, 2008 Redistricter. Software Package. URL: http://code.google.com/p/redistricter/  C. Puppe,, Attlia Tasnadi, 2009. "Optimal redistricting under geographical constraints: Why “pack and crack” does not work", Economics Letter 105:93-96  C. Puppe,, Attlia Tasnadi, 2008. "A computational approach to unbiased districting", Mathematical and Computer Modeling 48(9-10), November 2008, Pages 1455-1460  F. Ricca, A. Scozzari and B. Simeone, Weighted Voronoi Region Algorithms for Political Districting. Mathematical Computer Modelling forthcoming (2008).  F. Ricci, C, Bruno Simeone, 2008, "Local search algorithms for political districting", European Journal of Operational Research189, Issue 3, 16 September 2008, Pages 1409-1426  T. Shirabe, 2009. District modeling with exact contiguity constraints, Environment and Planning B (35) 1-14  Trelles, A. 2007. Electoral Boundaries, The Contribution of Mexico´s Redistricting Model to California. Mexico DF: ITAM.  S. ,Toshihiro and Junichiro Wado. 2008, "Automating the Districting Process: An Experiment Using a Japanese Case Study" in Lisa Handley and Bernard Grofman (ed.) Redistricting in Comparative Perspective, Oxford University Press  D.H. Wolpert, Macready, W.G. (1997), "No Free Lunch Theorems for Optimization," IEEE Transactions on Evolutionary Computation 1, 67  N. Xiao, 2003. Geographical Optimization using Evolutionay Alogroithms, University of Iowa. Dissertation 12 Redistricting Algorithms [11/9/2012]
  • 13. Questions & Contact http://micahaltman.com micah_altman@alumni.brown. edu 13 Redistricting Algorithms [11/9/2012]

Editor's Notes

  1. This work. by Micah Altman (http://redistricting.info) is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 United States License. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/us/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA.
  2. Focus on full auto
  3. Parallels other countries Ubiquitiy…. Price dropped in 2000 - more data available Changes in this round - open source GIS, google maps - expectation of open data