The document outlines Kenya's early warning system for drought and the process of linking early warning data to early response. It provides details on: - The objectives and indicators of the drought early warning system - How data is collected from communities and analyzed to produce warning bulletins - The four warning stages - normal, alert, alarm, emergency - and the corresponding response activities at each stage - Coordination of drought management across different levels of government in Kenya - The process of developing a drought contingency plan in Garissa district through participatory workshops - Triggers for activating the contingency plans based on early warning data - Challenges faced and lessons learned around timely response and multi-sectoral collaboration.

1. LINKING EARLY WARNING TO EARLY
REPONSE: A CASE STUDY IN GARISSA
DISTRICT:
BY
A.M. FARAH
ARID LANDS RESOURCE
MANAGEMENT PROJECT

2. EARLY WARNING SYSTEM
 IS DEFINED AS A SYSTEM OF DATA
COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS TO
MONITOR PEOPLES WELL BEING IN
ORDER TO PROVIDE TIMELY NOTICE
WHEN AN EMERGENCY THREATENS AND
TRIGGER EARLY AND APPROPRIATE
RESPONSE

3. OBJECTIVES OF DROUGHT EARLY
WARNING SYSTEM
 TO PROVIDE EARLY WARNING
INFORMATION ON THE ONSET OF
DROUGHT AND ITS EFFECTS ON FOOD
SECURITY IN ORDER TO TRIGGER TIMELY
RESPONSE.
 TO PROVIDE INFORMATION ON FOOD
AVAILABILITY DURING DROUGHT IN
ORDER TO BETTER INFORM AUTHORITIES
ON TIMING AND TARGETING OF
DROUGHT RESPONSE BY INSTITUTIONS

4. THE KENYAN EWS IS HOUSED IN ALRMP IN THE
OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

5. INDICATORS USED BY EWS
 ENVIRONMENTAL INDICATORS
RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION AND QUANTITY
WATER SOURCES, DISTANCE TO WATER FOR BOTH
HOUSEHOLD AND LIVESTOCK, VEGETATION,
PASTURE CONDITION AND AVAILABILITY,
MIGRATION
 RURAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS
LIVESTOCK BODY CONDITION, LIVESTOCK
PRODUCTION, LIVESTOCK MORTALITY,
LIVESTOCK SALES AND PRICES, SLAUGHTER,
MILK PRODUCTION, MILK CONSUMPTION,
LIVESTOCK HEALTH AND DISEASESCEREAL
PRICES,
CROP PRODUCTION
CROP CONDITION, HARVESTS, PESTS AND DISEASES
 HUMAN WELFARE INDICATORS:
NUTRITION STATUS OF CHILDREN UNDER FIVE
YEARS, HUMAN DISEASES, COPING STRATEGIES,

6. DATA COLLECTION
 IN EVERY DISTRICT THERE AT LEAST 10 FIELD MONITORS
WHO ARE ENGAGED TO COLLECT DATA ON A MONTHLY
BASIS.
 THE MONITORS ARE FROM WITHIN THE COMMUNITY.
 EACH MONITOR ADMINISTERS 30 QUESTIONAIRES TO HOUSE
HOLDS AND AT LEAST CONDUCTS FOUR KEY INFORMANTS
INTERVIEWS
 DATA ONCE COLLECTED IN THE FIELD IT IS ANALYSED IN THE
OFFICE BY INDIVIDUAL DISTRICTS
 DROUGHT MONITORING BULLETINS ARE PRODUCED ON A
MONTHLY BASIS FOR THE DISTRICT.
 THE BULLETINS ARE PRESENTED TO THE DSG FOR
ENDORSEMENT.
 THE BULLETIN ARE SENT TO HEADQUATERS.
 THE DSG MAY SEND ASSESMENT TEAM TO THE FIELD.

7. DROUGHT WARNING STAGES:
 IN ORDER TO INDICATE THE TRENDS IN FOOD
SECURITY, THE FOLLOWING WARNING
STAGES ARE USED.
-NORMAL
-ALERT
-ALARM
-EMERGENCY
 ESSENTIALLY THE WARNING STAGES
INDICATE DEGREE OF VULNERABILITY
CORRESPONDING TO INCREASING RISK OF
FAMINE AND IMPLYING DIFFERENT LEVELS
OF RESPONSE.

8. NORMAL
 ENVIRONMENTAL, LIVESTOCK AND PASTORAL
WELFARE INDICATORS SHOW NO UNUSUAL
FLUCTUATIONS AND REMAIN IN THE EXPECTED
SEASONAL RANGE.
ALERT
 ENVIRONMENTAL INDICATORS SHOW
UNUSUAL FLUCTUATIONS OUTSIDE EXPECTED
SEASONAL RANGES. THIS OCCURS WITHIN THE
ENTIRE DISTRICT, OR WITHIN LOCALIZED REGIONS;
 OR: ASSET LEVELS OF HOUSEHOLDS ARE STILL
TOO LOW TO PROVIDE AN ADEQUATE SUBSISTENCE
LEVEL AND VULNERABILITY OF FOOD INSECURITY
IS STILL HIGH.

9. ALARM
 ENVIRONMENTAL AND LIVESTOCK/AGRICULTURE
INDICATORS FLUCTUATE OUTSIDE EXPECTED SEASONAL
RANGES, AFFECTING THE LOCAL ECONOMY.
 THIS CONDITION OCCURS IN MOST PARTS OF THE DISTRICT,
AND DIRECTLY AND INDIRECTLY THREATENS FOOD
SECURITY OF PASTORALISTS.
EMERGENCY
 ALL INDICATORS ARE FLUCTUATING OUTSIDE NORMAL
RANGES. LOCAL PRODUCTION SYSTEMS ARE COLLAPSED
AS WELLAS THE DOMINANT ECONOMY WITHIN THE
DISTRICT.
 THIS SITUATION AFFECTS THE ASSET STATUS AND
PURCHASING POWER OF THE POPULATION TO AN EXTENT
THAT WELFARE LEVELS HAVE BEEN SERIOUSLY
WORSENED RESULTING IN FAMINE THREAT.

10. ACTIVITIES UNDERTAKEN IN THE
VARIOUS STAGES OF THE
DROUGHT CYCLE

11. NORMAL:
 CONTINGENCY PLANNING PREPARATION
 COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT i.e. LONG TERM
DEVELOPMENT TO REDUCE VULNERABILITY
AND STRENGTHEN PASTORAL COPING
STRATEGIES e.g. WATER POINT
DEVELOPMENT, PROVISION OF SOCIAL
SERVICES( HUMAN HEALTH, VETERINARY
SERVICES-(ROUTINE VACCINATION),
DEVELOPMENT OF INFRASTUCTURE
(ROADS).
 BUILD UP THE CAPACITY OF THE DSG AND
PARTNER AGENCIES.

12. ALERT
 SERVICING AND MAINTENANCE OF
BOREHOLES.
 VACCINATION OF LIVESTOCK
 ENCOURAGE LIVESTOCK OFF TAKE
 CONFLICT PREVENTION ACTIVITIES.

13. ALARM
 EMERGENCY TREATMENT OF LIVESTOCK(
INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL PARASITES)
 EMERGENCY LIVESTOCK OFFTAKE
 CONFLICT PREVENTION ACTIVITIES
INTENSIFIED.
 ASSIST IN MIGRATION IN SEARCH OF FORAGE
AND WATER.
 HUMAN HEALTH INTERVENTION( MEASLES
VACCINATION)

14. EMERGENCY
 EMERGENCY DESTOCKING
 EMERGENCY FODDER PROVISION.
 PROVIDING EMERGENCY WATER SUPPLIES IN
STRATEGIC LOCATIONS.
 HUMAN HEALTH INTERVENTIONS
 CONFLICT MITIGATION ACTIVITIES.
RECOVERY
 RESTOCKING PROGRAMMES.
 FOOD/CASH FOR WORK
 CAPACITY BUILDING
 NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT

15.  THE OBJECTIVE OF EARLY WARNING
SYSTEM IS TO SAVE LIVELIHOODS, NOT
JUST LIVES.
 IF WE DON’T INTERVENE BEFORE
LIVELIHOODS ARE DESTROYED, THEN
THE RECOVERY WILL BE DIFFICULT.
 THE TIMING OF RESPONSE IS CRITICAL.
 IF THERE IS NO RESPONSE OR A LATE
RESPONSE IT IS EASY TO REACH A POINT
OF DESTITUTION.

16. THREE KEY INGREDIENTS OF AN EFFECTIVE
EARLY WARNING AND EARLY RESPONSE
SYSTEMS ARE:
 RELIABLY, TIMELY AND CONSISTENT EARLY
WARNING INFORMATION. THERE MUST BE GOOD
INFORMATION THAT DELIVERS.
 CLEAR PROCESSES FOR FEEDING INFORMATION TO
DECISIONS ABOUT HOW AND WHY TO RESPONSE.
 CLEAR AND RAPID RESPONSE MECHANISM IN PLACE
AND THE POLITICAL WILL TO RESPOND.

17. COORDINATION OF DROUGHT
MANAGEMENTIN KENYA

18. KENYA FOOD SECURITY COORDINATION STRUCTURE
COMMUNITIES
• EWS, Rapid Assessments
DISTRICT STEERING GROUP
Members- Heads of departments, Civil Society, Religious organizations
TECHNICAL SUBCOMMITEE
• GoK Technical Departments
• NGOs
• Projects
KENYA FOOD SECURITYSTEERING GROUP
Members- ALRMP, WFP, FEWS-NET, MOA, Other technical Departments
TECHNICAL SUB COMMITTEE
• ALRMP
• MOA
• WFP
• FEWS NET
KENYA FOOD SECURITY MEETING
Members-GOK,UN AGENCIES, ,NGOs Other FOOD Security partners
SECTORAL WORKING GROUPS
• Agriculture and Livestock
• Water and Sanitation
• Health and Nutrition
• Disaster Management
Provincial Disaster Management Committee
NATIONAL FOOD SECURITY EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE
CABINET LEVEL-CHAIR THE PRESIDENT
NATIONAL FOOD SECURITY COORDINATING COMMITTEE
MEMBERS PERMANENT SECRETARIES-CHAIR HEAD OF CIVIL SERVICE

19. DEVELOPMENT OF DROUGHT
CONTINGENCY PLANS IN GARISSA.
THIS WAS DONE THROUGH A 5-DAY
PARTICIPATORY PLANNING WORKSHOP WHICH
INVOLVED:-
 A REVIEW AND PRESENTATION OF DROUGHT
AND FAMINE EXPERIENCES OF THE DISTRICT
AND PREVIOUS GOVERNMENT/DONOR
RESPONSES.
 PRESENTATION OF EARLY WARNING SYSTEM
AND HOW IT OPERATES WITH REGARD TO
TRIGGERING RESPONSE.

20.  PRESENTATION AND DISCUSSION OF
RELEVANT INFORMATION COLLECTED
PRIOR TO THE WORKSHOP AND
AGREEMENT OF HOW SUCH INFORMATION
WILL BE USED.
 IDENTIFICATION OF AREAS/ASPECTS IN
WHICH PLANS OUGHT TO BE DEVELOPED.
 DEVELOPING SPECIFIC PLANS.

21. WHO PARTICIPATED IN THE PLANNING ?
 PROVINCIAL ADMINISTRATION INCLUDING
DISTRICT OFFICERS FROM THE DIVISIONS.
 REPRESENTATIVES FROM THE LOCAL
COMMUNITIES.
 RELEVANT GOK LINE DEPARTMENTS.
 RELEVANT NGOS AND CBOS
 DISTRICT STEERING GROUP MEMBERS.
 THIS GIVES A TOTAL OF ABOUT 25
PARTICIPANTS.

22. AREAS/ASPECTS IN WHICH CONTINGENCY
PLANS WERE DEVELOPED
 ANIMAL HEALTH INTERVENTION.
 EMERGENCY LIVESTOCK OFFTAKE
 EMERGENCY WATER SUPPLY
 PROVISION OF LIVESTOCK FEED
 PROVISION OF HUMAN HEALTH SERVICES.
 RESTOCKING

23. TRIGGERS
 THE ACTIVATION OF THE CONTINGENCY
PLANS ARE TIED TO TRIGGERS WHICH ARE
INDICATED BY THE EARLY WARNNG SYSTEM.
EXAMPLE:
- INCREASE IN CEREAL PRICES
- DECREASE IN LIVESTOCK PRICES
- COMBAINED TOTAL FAILURE OR DEVIATION
OF NORMAL AMOUNT OF RAINFALL IN THE
LONG AND SHORT RAINS SEASON IN ANY
GIVEN YEAR WILL LEAD TO SHORTAGE OF
PASTURE AND WATER AVAILABILTY.

24. CHALLENGES
• INADEQUATE AND LATE RESPONSE TO
DROUGHT EMERGENCIES DUE TO LIMITED
DROUGHT CONTINGENCY FUNDS.
• LENGTHY PROCEDURES TAKEN BY DONORS IN
SCREENING AND APPROVING PROPOSALS AND
ALSO SLOW RELEASE OF TRANCHES.
• OVER EMPHASIS ON SHORT TERM RELIEF FOOD
AID AS A SOLUTION TO CHRONIC AND
EMERGENCY FOOD INSECURITY;
• STRINGENT PROCUREMENT PROCEDURES
CAUSES DELAY IN TIMELY RESPONSE TO
EMERGENCIES

25. LESSONS LEARNT
 THERE IS NEED TO ESTABLISH A FRAME WORK
THROUGH WHICH FUNDS FOR EMERGENCY
INTERVENTIONS ARE POOLED AND MANAGED
CENTRALLY IN ORDER TO RESPOND ON TIME, TO
ALLOCATE RESOURCES ACCORDING TO NEEDS AND
HARMONIZE FIELD OPERATIONS.
 A STRONG LINK WITH DISTRICT BASED LEAD
AGENCIES AND EFFECTIVE INVOLVEMENT AND
PARTICIPATION OF TARGET GROUPS AND
BENEFICIARIES ARE KEY TO SUCCESS OF EMERGENCY
INTERVENTIONS

26. LESSONS LEARNT
 EFFECTIVE DROUGHT MANAGEMENT SYSTEM MUST
INCLUDE ALL STAKEHOLDERS IN A MULTI SECTORAL
APPROACH.
 ALL THE STAKEHOLDERS IN THE DISTRICT
ACKNOWLEDGE THAT DROUGHT MANAGEMENT WAS
NOT RESPOSIBILTY OF ANY ONE ORGANIZATION. IT
WAS WITH THIS IN MIND THAT ALL THE
STAKEHOLDERS SET OUT TO ADDRESS THE ISSUE OF
DROUGHT.
 CONSEQUENTLY THIS JOINT VENTURE APPROACH
ENHANCED THE MITIGATION OF THE DROUGHT.

27. LESSONS LEARNT(CONT’D)
 FOR EMERGENCY INTERVENTIONS, PROCUREMENT
PROCEDURES SHOULD BE KEPT VERY SIMPLE AND
PURCHASES SHOULD BE MADE LOCALLY BY THE
RELEVANT AND APPROPRIATE AGENCIES.
 EMERGENCY ACTIVITIES TAKE PLACE WITHIN A
CULTURAL AND TRADITIONAL CONTEXT WHICH
MUST RESPECTED AND ADJUSTED TO; IF NOT
INTERVENTIONS MAY BE GOING AGAINIST
CULTURAL NORMS.
 WHEN WORKING THROUGH PARTNERS IT IS
IMPORTANT THAT ALL PARTNERS ARE INDUCED
INTO OVERALL PROGRAMME AT THE ONSET.
 DURING IMPLEMENTATION IT IS IMPORTANT THAT
LESSON –LEARNING WORKSHOPS ARE HELD WITH
ALL THE PARTNERS FOR PEER REVIEW AND
INFORMATION ECHANGE ON BEST PRACTICES.