Air conditioning trends and forecast anette meyer holley - john updatesv2 edited

Global Trends in Air Conditioning
Anette M Holley
Chillventa
October 2014

2
Excellence in Market Intelligence
2
AC Global trends
Critical
Very Certain
Energy Efficiency and renewables
Market Globalization & Industry consolidation
Refrigerants
VRF vs. Chiller
Market Drivers
Joint Ventures
And Alliances
European Economy
Market Restraints
Emerging Countries
Material cost
Chinese growth slowdown
Smart buildings smart homes
Legislation
Ventilation/
DOAS
US recovery

3
Hitachi and JCI
3
January 2014: JCI purchases 60% of Hitachi AC Business including the manufacturing facilities
Complete AC range including ductless
JCI access to established and emerging markets for ductless and VRF
In the US the Hitachi product will be able to rely on York’s extensive dealership network

4
Carrier UTC & CIAT
4
July 2014: Carrier UTC bid 53.9% shares from CIAT – not finalised
Focus on commercial AC and Chillers (Europe) and residential (USA)
Focus on airside products and hydronic
Europe (including Russia) and South Africa market presence
Global with bias on North America
•One of the largest European groups serving the commercial AC market;
•System sale combining chillers and airside;
•Dominant in the French market;
•Production facilities in France, Spain and Italy.
•Combined CP Market Share in France of 35%

5
World air conditioning market, 2012-2017
Total 2014: 128.5 million units
Total 2014: Euro 72.3 billion
5

6
6
Global minisplit market – 2014 e
Top 10 countries in Europe in 2014 by units (number of outdoor units) – 6.5 million units representing 6% of global total

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7
World inverter air conditioning market
2013 total market sizes
Inverters (single + multi) by volume

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8
AC Chiller market
World Market for chillers from 2012 to 2017 in value (Euro millions)
Top 10 countries in the world market for chillers in 2014 by value (Euro millions)
Top 10 countries in Europe for chillers in 2014 e by value (Euro millions)

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9
VRF market
World market for VRF from 2011 to 2016 in units (outdoor units)
Top 10 countries in the world market VRF in 2014 by units (outdoor units)
Top 10 countries in Europe in 2014 by units (outdoor units)

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World fastest growing markets, CAGR 2012-17
10
Warm spots >5-10% growth
Cold spots <0% growth
Hot spots >10% growth
India
Indonesia
Russia
Colombia
Nigeria
Brazil
Venezuela
Vietnam
China
Argentina
UK
South Africa
Mexico
Turkey

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AC growth rate in Europe,2014
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-6%
-8%
7%
-14%

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The Germany AC market
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The sale of GEA's Heat Exchanger Division to Triton is moving forward ; expected completion by the end of the year
This division includes GEA Air Treatment, the clear German market leader in fan coils, one of the top four in AHUs and a significant player in chillers
The Kaut group established a new company, C P Kaut, in September 2014. This will exclusively distribute products from the large Chinese air conditioning A/C company, Hisense, in Germany.
Swegon acquired the German company Econdition GmbH, a medium-sized player in industrial and precision cooling systems, in August 2014. This, together with its previous acquisitions of Blue Box and Walter Meier Germany has considerably strengthened its position in the German market
The German AHU market showedg reasonable growth in 2013, with an increasing proportion of products being sold with heat recovery systems
The European ErP directive will come into effect in Germany in September 2015 and will have significant effects on both the air conditioning and heating markets

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Penetration of air conditioning in dwellings
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Penetration
Spain
47%
Russia
36%
Italy
31%
Turkey
31%
France
10%
UK & Germany
<5%

14
European air conditioning stock levels of splits
14

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15
Europe AC market growth – 2013-14e
UK
France
Russia
Spain
Italy
30%
24%
18%
12%
6%
0%
-6%
-12%
-18%
-24%
-30%
Germany
Turkey
Splits+VRF (by volume)
Chillers (by value)

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16
Expected future growth for Europe (CAGR – 2012- 2017)
UK
France
Russia
Spain
Italy
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%
Germany
Turkey
Splits+VRF (by volume)
Chillers (by value)

World Refrigeration & AC&R Compressors
MCE, MARCH 2014
Anette Meyer Holley

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World refrigeration & World compressors
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2013-14 – World refrigeration; 9 countries
2015-16 – World AC & Ref compressors

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Global drivers
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Importance
Degree of Adoption
low
high
med
high
med
•In EU countries supermarkets and energy efficiency are key
•In India, China and Brazil, improving the food chain is a main driver
EU Legislation/
Outlawing of R22; Directive 2009/125/EC on Ecodesign1 a framework for energy reduction
Supermarkets – Energy Efficiency/
Green credentials
Improve food chain/avoid waste
Discount stores – Lidl, Aldi etc.
Smaller supermarkets
Design
Reliability
Quick installation
Price of Copper
Reduce noise levels
Inverters

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Growth in refrigeration, by country, by value, CAGR
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2012 total: 31,034.5 US$ million
14.5%
8.7%
7.6%
7.0%
4.2%
3.7%
2.7%
2.5%
1.6%

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BSRIA as an advisor
on refrigeration
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RED AMBER GREEN
Indicative energy savings Low savings Medium savings High savings
Where technology can be applied Limited application Some application, but
not widespread
Universal application
Ease of application Complex Medium Simple
Maintenance of technology Complex Medium Simple
Interaction with other technologies High interaction Some interaction No interaction
Impact on water use High Medium None
Applicability to Saudi Arabia Not applicable May be applicable Applicable

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Contact details
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