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Heating and cooling revolution
This document summarizes trends in the global heating and cooling market. It finds that: 1) The HVAC market was worth €100 billion in 2013, with China accounting for €39 billion and Europe €25.9 billion. 2) China has become the top domestic boiler market, surpassing countries like the UK and South Korea. 3) New regulations taking effect in 2015 will phase out less efficient boilers and increase demand for high-efficiency condensing boilers and hybrid heating systems. 4) The heat pump market is growing rapidly, especially in China and Europe, with projections showing continued strong growth through 2020.
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Heating and cooling revolution
- 1. Heating and coolingrevolution By Andrew Giles October 2014
- 2. 2 Excellence inMarket Intelligence Heating and Cooling Markets Agenda •Global HVAC market and the rise of China •Western & Eastern Europe heating market trends in short term •ErP in September 2015, the great divorce of condensing boilers, rise in hybrids and solar •Heat pumps – China versus Europe and the top growing product types •2020 & 2035 market for heat generators and new technologies •Traditional water heating losing to combination boilers and other sanitary hot water solutions •Top manufactures – making acquisitions and positioning in the HVAC markets /market share 2
- 3. 3 Excellence inMarket Intelligence Global Major Regions HVAC Market Value Europe analysis based on following countries: Austria, Belgium, Czech Rep., France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, UK Total 2013 market value: €100bn NAmerica €22.7bln China €39.0bln Japan €14.0bn Europe €25.9bln
- 4. 4 Excellence inMarket Intelligence China domestic boilers leaps to top spot 4 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 UK South Korea China Russia Number of of boilers sold per annum
- 5. 5 Excellence inMarket Intelligence ErP - Impact on products Increase in Combined and Hybrid systems Eco Design A +++ ≥150% A ++ ≥125% A + ≥98% A ≥90% B ≥82% C ≥75% D ≥36% E ≥34% Cogeneration Gas HP Condensing boilers Non- condensing boilers Ground /Water to water HP Air to water HP From 26/9/2015 products with Label D to G are no longer allowed to be sold Hybrid Heat Pumps Combined CB + ST system + enhanced Controls Fuel cell Labels mandatory from Sep. 2015 5
- 6. 6 Excellence inMarket Intelligence Combining systems Product label High efficiency gas boiler Solar thermal system (VT) Temperature controls System label example: 89% 6% 4% + + System efficiency 99% A + ≥98% System label Separate labelling for Space Heating and SHW. 6
- 7. 7 Excellence inMarket Intelligence 12% 15% 88% 85% - 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 2012 2017 condensing non-condensing Boiler technology shift Domestic gas and oil boiler sales 2012 - 2017 Outside the EU market Inside the EU market ‘000 units ‘000 units 70% 92% 30% 8% - 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 2012 2017 condensing non-condensing Source: BSRIA, based on the analysis of 9 largest European markets Source: BSRIA, based on the analysis of Turkey, Russia, China, S. Korea 7
- 8. 8 Excellence inMarket Intelligence Hybrid heat pumps Market potential by 2020 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 2014 2015 2016 2017 2020 France Germany Italy UK Netherlands units CAGR 2014-2020 +51.7% Hybrid Box Gas cond. boiler & A/W monobloc HP Modulo Hybrido Gas cond. boiler & A/W split HP 8
- 9. 9 Excellence inMarket Intelligence 53,400 5,042 1,973 1,547 831 2,595 - 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 China Europe Turkey Brazil India Other countries Solar Thermal Market World market * 29 countries Total world* market: 65.4 million m2 in 2014e (+7%) •~ +7% growth in 2014 •~ 82% of world market ‘000 m2 2012 2013 2014 9
- 10. 10 Excellence inMarket Intelligence Heat Pump Market China - 2013 Total market estimated at 1 million units in 2013: (+ 15%) units 12.0% 5.0% 20.0% 17.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 Ground / Water to Water Splits Monoblocks DHW Heat pumps 2014 Growth 2014 10
- 11. 11 Excellence inMarket Intelligence Heat Pump Market Europe* – ground/water/air-to-water Ground/Water-to-Water ~110,600 in 2014 (+4.3%) *Includes 21 countries: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK, Croatia, Czech Republic, Poland, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia Air-to-Water ~196,500 in 2014 (+7%) units units -3.1% 2.8% -6.0% 3.1% 4.3% 5.6% 6.3% 6.0% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% - 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Ground/ water to water Growth -25.0% -20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% - 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Splits Monoblocs Growth splits Growth monoblocs 11
- 12. 12 Excellence inMarket Intelligence *Includes 21 countries: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK, Croatia, Czech Republic, Poland, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia Cylinder Integrated Water Heaters Heat Pumps ~111,000 in 2013 (+15.7%) Heat Pump Market Europe* – Cylinder integrated units 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0% - 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Air to water –cylinder-integrated water heater HP Growth 12
- 13. 13 Excellence inMarket Intelligence 2020 European heating market Top 6 Heating market by volume of sales, 2012 – 2020 – wall hung condensing, wall hung non-condensing , floor standing, biomass, solar thermal & heat pump 13 ‘000 units - 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2012 2020 2012 2020 2012 2020 2012 2020 2012 2020 2012 2020 UK Italy France Germany Spain Netherlands HP ST Biomass FS WH non-cond. WH cond.
- 14. 14 Excellence inMarket Intelligence Renewables sales curve until 2035 Powerful drivers for new technologies after 2020 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 2012 2015 2020 2030 2035 Heat Pumps Hybrid HP ST systems micro CHP Fuel Cells Units 14
- 15. 15 Excellence inMarket Intelligence Water heater market declining 15 3,600 3,800 4,000 4,200 4,400 4,600 4,800 5,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Thousand units Electric storage Air-water cylinder heat pump Solar thermal residential system Electric storage Air-water Cylinder integrated heat pump Rise of combination boilers means less market for traditional electric storage
- 16. 16 Excellence inMarket Intelligence JCI Midea Acquisition speed 16 Diversification degree Degree of diversification appreciated outside of the core HVAC business Acquisition speed analysed over the last five years, based on company literature and industry sources Low Low High High Acquisition speed AO Smith Ariston BDR Thermea Bosch Daikin Dimplex Ferroli Gree Haier Hitachi LG Mitsubishi Electric Panasonic Riello Toshiba Carrier Trane Vaillant Viessmann
- 17. 17 Excellence inMarket Intelligence European Analysis 17 European Market Shares by value in Heating, AC and Renewables of Top 20 Companies, 2012 0.1% 4.3% 8.6% 10.3% 0.2% 0.1% 2.0% 1.0% 0.2% 10.2% 4.4% 14.2% 0.6% 0.5% 2.3% 2.2% 2.6% 1.6% 8.1% 3.0% 0.0% 3.5% 2.2% 0.4% 1.3% 2.1% 8.8% 5.0% 3.8% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 1.6% 0.4% 0.5% 0.6% 4.0% 6.4% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% European MS in Heating European MS in AC European MS in Renewables
- 18. 18 Excellence inMarket Intelligence THANK YOU 18