1) AI progress relies on leaderboards, computing power, data, and algorithms.
2) Computing power is increasing exponentially over time, lowering the costs of digital tools.
3) The amount of labeled data available for training models is a key factor and is growing significantly.
4) Algorithm models are progressing from basic pattern recognition to more advanced cognition, relationships, and roles.
This document summarizes a presentation on the future of AI given by Jim Spohrer of IBM Research. Some key points from the presentation include:
- AI progress is being measured using open leaderboards to benchmark progress on tasks like question answering, translation, and video understanding.
- The timeline for solving different AI/IA tasks ranges from the next 5-10 years for pattern recognition to 20-30 years for commonsense reasoning and human-level performance.
- Preparing for the AI future involves participating in open source AI communities on GitHub and open challenges on platforms like Kaggle. It also involves learning skills like rapidly rebuilding systems from scratch.
- Both the benefits and risks of AI include impacts on jobs
Jim Spohrer gave a presentation on preparing for the future with open artificial intelligence from a service science perspective. He thanked the organizers for the invitation and discussed four books related to scientific progress and responsibility to future generations. Spohrer explained that service science draws from various disciplines to study value co-creation phenomena and the evolution of complex service systems. He outlined IBM's involvement in establishing service science and discussed concepts like service-dominant logic. Spohrer concluded by taking questions on topics like the timeline for solving AI and implications for stakeholders.
This document discusses trust in interactions with cognitive assistants. It begins by defining cognitive assistants as new decision tools that can augment human capabilities by understanding our environment with depth and clarity. Cognitive assistants can provide high-quality recommendations to help people make better data-driven decisions, and significantly augment people's problem-solving abilities through interaction. The document then discusses components of trust from different academic disciplines, such as ability, benevolence, integrity, predictability, and shared values. It poses questions about what jobs will remain for humans and ethical issues regarding situations like domestic violence. The document conjectures that AI combined with other information sources could surpass average professionals in some areas. It also speculates that societies of AI may form to optimize tasks in
This document summarizes a presentation about the future of AI and Fabric for Deep Learning (FfDL). It discusses how deep learning has advanced due to increased data and computing power, but that commonsense reasoning will require more research. FfDL is introduced as an open source project that aims to make deep learning accessible and scalable across frameworks. It uses a microservices architecture on Kubernetes to manage training jobs efficiently. Research is ongoing to further develop explainable and robust AI capabilities.
MLCommons aims to accelerate machine learning to benefit everyone.
MLCommons will build a a common set of tools for ML practitioners including:
Benchmarks to measure progress: MLCommons will leverage MLPerf (built on DAWNbench) to measure speed, but also expand benchmarking other aspects of ML such as accuracy and algorithmic efficiency. ML models continue to increase in size and consequently cost. Sustaining growth in capability will require learning how to do more (accuracy) with less (efficiency).
Public datasets to fuel research: MLCommons new People’s Speech project seeks to develop a public dataset that, in addition to being larger than any other public speech dataset by more than an order of magnitude (86K hours labeled speech), better reflects diverse languages and accents. Public datasets drive machine learning like nothing else; consider ImageNet’s impact on the field of computer vision.
Best practices to accelerate development: MLCommons will make it easier to develop and deploy machine learning solutions by fostering consistent best practices. For instance, MLCommons’ MLCube project provides a common container interface for machine learning models to make them easier to share, experiment with (including benchmark), develop, and ultimately deploy.
The State of Artificial Intelligence in 2018: A Good Old Fashioned ReportNathan Benaich
This document provides a summary of the state of artificial intelligence (AI) research and developments over the past year. It covers key areas like research breakthroughs, talent, industries utilizing AI, and public policy issues related to AI. The document is produced by two authors in East London as a way to capture the progress of AI and spark discussion about its implications. It includes sections on research breakthroughs in areas like transfer learning, advances in hardware that have enabled progress, and the use of video datasets to help machines understand scenes and actions to gain a level of common sense.
The document discusses various applications of artificial intelligence (AI) in architecture, including how AI can improve design processes, manage building costs and schedules, and enable new forms of data-driven architectural research. It also explores the role of AI assistants like Google Home in people's daily lives and questions around whether AI will eventually replace human architects, engineers and designers. The document covers different types of AI and their applications across fields like music, robotics, and social media as the capabilities of AI continue to advance.
This document summarizes a presentation on the future of AI given by Jim Spohrer of IBM Research. Some key points from the presentation include:
- AI progress is being measured using open leaderboards to benchmark progress on tasks like question answering, translation, and video understanding.
- The timeline for solving different AI/IA tasks ranges from the next 5-10 years for pattern recognition to 20-30 years for commonsense reasoning and human-level performance.
- Preparing for the AI future involves participating in open source AI communities on GitHub and open challenges on platforms like Kaggle. It also involves learning skills like rapidly rebuilding systems from scratch.
- Both the benefits and risks of AI include impacts on jobs
Jim Spohrer gave a presentation on preparing for the future with open artificial intelligence from a service science perspective. He thanked the organizers for the invitation and discussed four books related to scientific progress and responsibility to future generations. Spohrer explained that service science draws from various disciplines to study value co-creation phenomena and the evolution of complex service systems. He outlined IBM's involvement in establishing service science and discussed concepts like service-dominant logic. Spohrer concluded by taking questions on topics like the timeline for solving AI and implications for stakeholders.
This document discusses trust in interactions with cognitive assistants. It begins by defining cognitive assistants as new decision tools that can augment human capabilities by understanding our environment with depth and clarity. Cognitive assistants can provide high-quality recommendations to help people make better data-driven decisions, and significantly augment people's problem-solving abilities through interaction. The document then discusses components of trust from different academic disciplines, such as ability, benevolence, integrity, predictability, and shared values. It poses questions about what jobs will remain for humans and ethical issues regarding situations like domestic violence. The document conjectures that AI combined with other information sources could surpass average professionals in some areas. It also speculates that societies of AI may form to optimize tasks in
This document summarizes a presentation about the future of AI and Fabric for Deep Learning (FfDL). It discusses how deep learning has advanced due to increased data and computing power, but that commonsense reasoning will require more research. FfDL is introduced as an open source project that aims to make deep learning accessible and scalable across frameworks. It uses a microservices architecture on Kubernetes to manage training jobs efficiently. Research is ongoing to further develop explainable and robust AI capabilities.
MLCommons aims to accelerate machine learning to benefit everyone.
MLCommons will build a a common set of tools for ML practitioners including:
Benchmarks to measure progress: MLCommons will leverage MLPerf (built on DAWNbench) to measure speed, but also expand benchmarking other aspects of ML such as accuracy and algorithmic efficiency. ML models continue to increase in size and consequently cost. Sustaining growth in capability will require learning how to do more (accuracy) with less (efficiency).
Public datasets to fuel research: MLCommons new People’s Speech project seeks to develop a public dataset that, in addition to being larger than any other public speech dataset by more than an order of magnitude (86K hours labeled speech), better reflects diverse languages and accents. Public datasets drive machine learning like nothing else; consider ImageNet’s impact on the field of computer vision.
Best practices to accelerate development: MLCommons will make it easier to develop and deploy machine learning solutions by fostering consistent best practices. For instance, MLCommons’ MLCube project provides a common container interface for machine learning models to make them easier to share, experiment with (including benchmark), develop, and ultimately deploy.
The State of Artificial Intelligence in 2018: A Good Old Fashioned ReportNathan Benaich
This document provides a summary of the state of artificial intelligence (AI) research and developments over the past year. It covers key areas like research breakthroughs, talent, industries utilizing AI, and public policy issues related to AI. The document is produced by two authors in East London as a way to capture the progress of AI and spark discussion about its implications. It includes sections on research breakthroughs in areas like transfer learning, advances in hardware that have enabled progress, and the use of video datasets to help machines understand scenes and actions to gain a level of common sense.
The document discusses various applications of artificial intelligence (AI) in architecture, including how AI can improve design processes, manage building costs and schedules, and enable new forms of data-driven architectural research. It also explores the role of AI assistants like Google Home in people's daily lives and questions around whether AI will eventually replace human architects, engineers and designers. The document covers different types of AI and their applications across fields like music, robotics, and social media as the capabilities of AI continue to advance.
Bringing ML To Production, What Is Missing? AMLD 2020Mikio L. Braun
This document discusses key considerations for bringing machine learning to production. It addresses identifying suitable problems for ML, architectures for ML systems, and organizing teams and data platforms for ML. Specifically, it provides examples of recommender systems and preprocessing patterns. It emphasizes that the ML problem must address the underlying business problem and have different metrics. Architectures include serving patterns, preprocessing in feature stores, and integrating multiple ML models. The document also discusses effective collaboration between data scientists and developers and organizing data science teams within companies.
Democratizing Intelligence - Sri Ambati, CEO & Co-Founder, H2O.aiSri Ambati
Presented at #H2OWorld 2017 in Mountain View, CA.
Enjoy the video: https://youtu.be/ZrlJQqNaSMI.
Learn more about H2O.ai: https://www.h2o.ai/.
Follow @h2oai: https://www.twitter.com/h2oai.
The newest buzzword after Big Data is AI. From Google search to Facebook messenger bots, AI is also everywhere.
• Machine learning has gone mainstream. Organizations are trying to build competitive advantage with AI and Big Data.
• But, what does it take to build Machine Learning applications? Beyond the unicorn data scientists and PhDs, how do you build on your big data architecture and apply Machine Learning to what you do?
• This talk will discuss technical options to implement machine learning on big data architectures and how to move forward.
Krish Swamy + Balaji Gopalakrishnan, Wells Fargo - Building a World Class Dat...Sri Ambati
This session was recorded in San Francisco on February 5th, 2019 and can be viewed here: https://youtu.be/VAW2eDht7JA
Bio: Krish Swamy is an experienced professional with deep skills in applying analytics and BigData capabilities to challenging business problems and driving customer insights. Krish's analytic experience includes marketing and pricing, credit risk, digital analytics and most recently, big data analytics and data transformation. His key experiences lie in banking and financial services, the digital customer experience domain, with a background in management consulting. Other key skills include influencing organizational change towards a data and analytics driven culture, and building teams of analytics, statisticians and data scientists.
Bio: Balaji Gopalakrishnan has over 15 years experience in the Machine Learning and Data Science space. Balaji has led cross functional data science and engineering teams for developing cutting-edge machine learning and cognitive computing capabilities for insurance fraud and underwriting, telematics, multi-asset class risk, scheduling under uncertainty, and others. He is passionate about driving AI adoption in organizations and strongly believes in the power of cross functional collaboration for this purpose.
This document discusses artificial intelligence and its applications post-COVID 19. It is presented by Dr. Priti Srinivas Sajja from the department of computer science at Sardar Patel University. The document covers various topics related to AI such as its nature, symbolic AI, bio-inspired computing, applications in areas like healthcare, education, and examples of AI systems.
Vertical is the New Horizontal - MinneAnalytics 2016 Sri Ambati Keynote on AISri Ambati
Data is the only vertical, Machine Learning, bigdata, artificial intelligence
- Powered by the open source machine learning software H2O.ai. Contributors welcome at: https://github.com/h2oai
- To view videos on H2O open source machine learning software, go to: https://www.youtube.com/user/0xdata
The document summarizes a presentation given by Dr. Mikio Braun on architecting AI applications. It discusses the history and approaches of artificial intelligence, including classical, machine learning, and deep learning methods. It also provides examples of applying AI to autonomous driving, chatbots, recommendations, games and more. Finally, it outlines common elements of AI applications and design patterns for aspects like core machine learning, serving models, preprocessing data, automation, and integrating machine learning components.
AI Foundations Course Module 1 - Shifting to the Next Step in Your AI Transfo...Sri Ambati
In this session, you will learn about what you should do after you’ve taken an AI transformation baseline. Over the span of this session, we will discuss the next steps in moving toward AI readiness through alignment of talent and tools to drive successful adoption and continuous use within an organization.
To find additional videos on AI courses, earn badges, join the courses at H2O.ai Learning Center: https://training.h2o.ai/products/ai-foundations-course
To find the Youtube video about this presentation: https://youtu.be/K1Cl3x3rd8g
Speaker:
Chemere Davis (H2O.ai - Senior Data Scientist Training Specialist)
Academia to industry looking back on a decade of mlMikio L. Braun
Dr. Mikio Braun gave a presentation on his experience transitioning from academia to industry in artificial intelligence over the past decade. He discussed how machine learning has moved from researching problems like image recognition to solving business problems at companies like Zalando. He also compared the exploratory nature of academic research to the need to productize solutions in industry. Throughout, he provided examples of how machine learning is applied at different companies and analyzed whether certain applications truly qualify as artificial intelligence.
This presentation delineates the differences between RPA, Big Data, Deep Learning and Cognitive Automation, providing a complete landscape for the forward-thinking manager. You'll learn which applications are best suited to each technology and easy examples to explain the concepts to others.
#OSSPARIS19 - Overcoming open source challenges in reinforcement learning - W...Paris Open Source Summit
#IA Track - Practical applications
Reinforcement learning is a rapidly growing branch of artificial intelligence that has achieved super-human performance in board games such as Go and chess and video games such as Starcraft. Research papers and open code in this field are widely available.
However, unlike other fields of machine learning, open code and research has so far largely failed to translate into real world applications.
In this talk, we leverage the indust.ai team's experience in developing their own reinforcement learning activity to discuss the challenges involved. These include poor reproducibility, varying code quality, prohibitive computation and data requirements, the difference in mindset between traditional machine learning and reinforcement learning, and the difficulty of finding the skills required to transfer academic research to the real world. We will also present some of our approaches for overcoming these issues.
Executing successfully a Knowledge Graph initiative in an organization requires a series of strategic decisions that need to be taken before and during the execution.
Issues like how to balance the (inevitable) knowledge quality trade-offs, how to prioritize knowledge evolution, or how to allocate resources between new knowledge delivery and technology improvement, are often not contemplated early or adequately enough, resulting into frictions and sub-optimal results.
In this talk, I describe some key strategic dilemmas that Architects and Executives face when designing and executing Knowledge Graph projects, and discuss potential ways to deal with them.
“Semantic PDF Processing & Document Representation”diannepatricia
Sridhar Iyengar, IBM Distinguished Engineer at the IBM T. J. Watson Research Center, presention “Semantic PDF Processing & Document Representation” as part of the Cognitive Systems Institute Group Speaker Series.
The ongoing digitization of the industrial-scale machines that power and enable human activity is itself a major global transformation. But the real revolution—in efficiencies, in improved and saved lives—will happen as machine learning automation and insights are properly coupled to the complex systems of industrial data. Leveraging a systems view of real-world use cases from aviation to transportation, I contrast the needs and approaches of consumer versus industrial machine learning. Particularly, I focus on three key areas: combining physics-based models to data-driven models, differential privacy and secure ML (including edge-to-cloud strategies), and interpretability of model predictions.
Catalina Butnaru, London Ambassador at City.ai - Working with AI - future-pro...Codiax
The document proposes an AI-compatible process for developing software that focuses on defining problems, researching use cases, and mapping skills upfront, then auditing data for quality and privacy before running parallel training experiments, benchmarking performance, and implementing live training with ongoing feedback in an agile manner overseen by roles like a data owner, coordinator, and ethical board.
AI Foundations Course Module 1 - An AI Transformation JourneySri Ambati
The chances of successfully implementing AI strategies within an organization significantly improve when you can recognize where your organization is on the maturity scale. Over this course, you will learn the keys to unlocking value with AI which include asking the right questions about the problems you are solving and ensuring you have the right cross-section of talent, tools, and resources. By the end of this module, you should be able to recognize where your organization is on the AI transformation spectrum and identify some strategies that can get you to the next stage in your journey.
To find additional videos on AI courses, earn badges, join the courses at H2O.ai Learning Center: https://training.h2o.ai/products/ai-foundations-course
To find the Youtube video about this presentation: https://youtu.be/PJgr2epM6qs
Speakers:
Chemere Davis (H2O.ai - Senior Data Scientist Training Specialist)
Ingrid Burton (H2O.ai - CMO)
Introducción al Aprendizaje Automatico con H2O-3 (1)Sri Ambati
En esta reunión virtual, damos una introducción a la plataforma de aprendizaje automático de código abierto número 1, H2O-3 y te mostramos cómo puedes usarla para desarrollar modelos para resolver diferentes casos de uso.
The document summarizes a tutorial on Opentech AI given by Jim Spohrer and Daniel Pakkala, discussing trends in lowering the cost of AI technologies, benchmarks for measuring AI progress, and types of cognitive systems ranging from tools to mediators. It also provides an outline for Daniel Pakkala's presentation on the Opentech AI architecture, ecosystem, and roadmap, discussing frameworks for understanding intelligence evolution and the need for an architecture framework for AI systems.
Bringing ML To Production, What Is Missing? AMLD 2020Mikio L. Braun
This document discusses key considerations for bringing machine learning to production. It addresses identifying suitable problems for ML, architectures for ML systems, and organizing teams and data platforms for ML. Specifically, it provides examples of recommender systems and preprocessing patterns. It emphasizes that the ML problem must address the underlying business problem and have different metrics. Architectures include serving patterns, preprocessing in feature stores, and integrating multiple ML models. The document also discusses effective collaboration between data scientists and developers and organizing data science teams within companies.
Democratizing Intelligence - Sri Ambati, CEO & Co-Founder, H2O.aiSri Ambati
Presented at #H2OWorld 2017 in Mountain View, CA.
Enjoy the video: https://youtu.be/ZrlJQqNaSMI.
Learn more about H2O.ai: https://www.h2o.ai/.
Follow @h2oai: https://www.twitter.com/h2oai.
The newest buzzword after Big Data is AI. From Google search to Facebook messenger bots, AI is also everywhere.
• Machine learning has gone mainstream. Organizations are trying to build competitive advantage with AI and Big Data.
• But, what does it take to build Machine Learning applications? Beyond the unicorn data scientists and PhDs, how do you build on your big data architecture and apply Machine Learning to what you do?
• This talk will discuss technical options to implement machine learning on big data architectures and how to move forward.
Krish Swamy + Balaji Gopalakrishnan, Wells Fargo - Building a World Class Dat...Sri Ambati
This session was recorded in San Francisco on February 5th, 2019 and can be viewed here: https://youtu.be/VAW2eDht7JA
Bio: Krish Swamy is an experienced professional with deep skills in applying analytics and BigData capabilities to challenging business problems and driving customer insights. Krish's analytic experience includes marketing and pricing, credit risk, digital analytics and most recently, big data analytics and data transformation. His key experiences lie in banking and financial services, the digital customer experience domain, with a background in management consulting. Other key skills include influencing organizational change towards a data and analytics driven culture, and building teams of analytics, statisticians and data scientists.
Bio: Balaji Gopalakrishnan has over 15 years experience in the Machine Learning and Data Science space. Balaji has led cross functional data science and engineering teams for developing cutting-edge machine learning and cognitive computing capabilities for insurance fraud and underwriting, telematics, multi-asset class risk, scheduling under uncertainty, and others. He is passionate about driving AI adoption in organizations and strongly believes in the power of cross functional collaboration for this purpose.
This document discusses artificial intelligence and its applications post-COVID 19. It is presented by Dr. Priti Srinivas Sajja from the department of computer science at Sardar Patel University. The document covers various topics related to AI such as its nature, symbolic AI, bio-inspired computing, applications in areas like healthcare, education, and examples of AI systems.
Vertical is the New Horizontal - MinneAnalytics 2016 Sri Ambati Keynote on AISri Ambati
Data is the only vertical, Machine Learning, bigdata, artificial intelligence
- Powered by the open source machine learning software H2O.ai. Contributors welcome at: https://github.com/h2oai
- To view videos on H2O open source machine learning software, go to: https://www.youtube.com/user/0xdata
The document summarizes a presentation given by Dr. Mikio Braun on architecting AI applications. It discusses the history and approaches of artificial intelligence, including classical, machine learning, and deep learning methods. It also provides examples of applying AI to autonomous driving, chatbots, recommendations, games and more. Finally, it outlines common elements of AI applications and design patterns for aspects like core machine learning, serving models, preprocessing data, automation, and integrating machine learning components.
AI Foundations Course Module 1 - Shifting to the Next Step in Your AI Transfo...Sri Ambati
In this session, you will learn about what you should do after you’ve taken an AI transformation baseline. Over the span of this session, we will discuss the next steps in moving toward AI readiness through alignment of talent and tools to drive successful adoption and continuous use within an organization.
To find additional videos on AI courses, earn badges, join the courses at H2O.ai Learning Center: https://training.h2o.ai/products/ai-foundations-course
To find the Youtube video about this presentation: https://youtu.be/K1Cl3x3rd8g
Speaker:
Chemere Davis (H2O.ai - Senior Data Scientist Training Specialist)
Academia to industry looking back on a decade of mlMikio L. Braun
Dr. Mikio Braun gave a presentation on his experience transitioning from academia to industry in artificial intelligence over the past decade. He discussed how machine learning has moved from researching problems like image recognition to solving business problems at companies like Zalando. He also compared the exploratory nature of academic research to the need to productize solutions in industry. Throughout, he provided examples of how machine learning is applied at different companies and analyzed whether certain applications truly qualify as artificial intelligence.
This presentation delineates the differences between RPA, Big Data, Deep Learning and Cognitive Automation, providing a complete landscape for the forward-thinking manager. You'll learn which applications are best suited to each technology and easy examples to explain the concepts to others.
#OSSPARIS19 - Overcoming open source challenges in reinforcement learning - W...Paris Open Source Summit
#IA Track - Practical applications
Reinforcement learning is a rapidly growing branch of artificial intelligence that has achieved super-human performance in board games such as Go and chess and video games such as Starcraft. Research papers and open code in this field are widely available.
However, unlike other fields of machine learning, open code and research has so far largely failed to translate into real world applications.
In this talk, we leverage the indust.ai team's experience in developing their own reinforcement learning activity to discuss the challenges involved. These include poor reproducibility, varying code quality, prohibitive computation and data requirements, the difference in mindset between traditional machine learning and reinforcement learning, and the difficulty of finding the skills required to transfer academic research to the real world. We will also present some of our approaches for overcoming these issues.
Executing successfully a Knowledge Graph initiative in an organization requires a series of strategic decisions that need to be taken before and during the execution.
Issues like how to balance the (inevitable) knowledge quality trade-offs, how to prioritize knowledge evolution, or how to allocate resources between new knowledge delivery and technology improvement, are often not contemplated early or adequately enough, resulting into frictions and sub-optimal results.
In this talk, I describe some key strategic dilemmas that Architects and Executives face when designing and executing Knowledge Graph projects, and discuss potential ways to deal with them.
“Semantic PDF Processing & Document Representation”diannepatricia
Sridhar Iyengar, IBM Distinguished Engineer at the IBM T. J. Watson Research Center, presention “Semantic PDF Processing & Document Representation” as part of the Cognitive Systems Institute Group Speaker Series.
The ongoing digitization of the industrial-scale machines that power and enable human activity is itself a major global transformation. But the real revolution—in efficiencies, in improved and saved lives—will happen as machine learning automation and insights are properly coupled to the complex systems of industrial data. Leveraging a systems view of real-world use cases from aviation to transportation, I contrast the needs and approaches of consumer versus industrial machine learning. Particularly, I focus on three key areas: combining physics-based models to data-driven models, differential privacy and secure ML (including edge-to-cloud strategies), and interpretability of model predictions.
Catalina Butnaru, London Ambassador at City.ai - Working with AI - future-pro...Codiax
The document proposes an AI-compatible process for developing software that focuses on defining problems, researching use cases, and mapping skills upfront, then auditing data for quality and privacy before running parallel training experiments, benchmarking performance, and implementing live training with ongoing feedback in an agile manner overseen by roles like a data owner, coordinator, and ethical board.
AI Foundations Course Module 1 - An AI Transformation JourneySri Ambati
The chances of successfully implementing AI strategies within an organization significantly improve when you can recognize where your organization is on the maturity scale. Over this course, you will learn the keys to unlocking value with AI which include asking the right questions about the problems you are solving and ensuring you have the right cross-section of talent, tools, and resources. By the end of this module, you should be able to recognize where your organization is on the AI transformation spectrum and identify some strategies that can get you to the next stage in your journey.
To find additional videos on AI courses, earn badges, join the courses at H2O.ai Learning Center: https://training.h2o.ai/products/ai-foundations-course
To find the Youtube video about this presentation: https://youtu.be/PJgr2epM6qs
Speakers:
Chemere Davis (H2O.ai - Senior Data Scientist Training Specialist)
Ingrid Burton (H2O.ai - CMO)
Introducción al Aprendizaje Automatico con H2O-3 (1)Sri Ambati
En esta reunión virtual, damos una introducción a la plataforma de aprendizaje automático de código abierto número 1, H2O-3 y te mostramos cómo puedes usarla para desarrollar modelos para resolver diferentes casos de uso.
The document summarizes a tutorial on Opentech AI given by Jim Spohrer and Daniel Pakkala, discussing trends in lowering the cost of AI technologies, benchmarks for measuring AI progress, and types of cognitive systems ranging from tools to mediators. It also provides an outline for Daniel Pakkala's presentation on the Opentech AI architecture, ecosystem, and roadmap, discussing frameworks for understanding intelligence evolution and the need for an architecture framework for AI systems.
The document discusses future directions and timelines for artificial intelligence (AI). It provides a projected timeline for when different AI capabilities may be achieved and at what cost. Some key points discussed include:
- By 2040, "narrow AI" systems capable of specific tasks like recognition may cost around $1,000, and "broad AI" systems capable of reasoning may follow by 2060 at similar costs.
- Labor costs are projected to decrease over time relative to the decreasing costs of AI systems, with digital workers potentially outcompeting human labor on a cost basis.
- An framework of AI progress and capabilities is presented, spanning perception, cognition, relationships and roles. Milestones and benchmark leaderboards are discussed
This document discusses the future of AI and provides an overview of key topics including:
- AI is currently at the peak of hype but deep learning depends on large datasets and computing power which are now available. Commonsense reasoning remains a challenge.
- IBM and MIT have invested $240 million over 10 years in an AI mission to advance capabilities.
- The timeline for solving AI involves benchmarks like image recognition, translation, and general AI. Full human-level AI may be 5-10 years away.
- Leaders in AI include companies investing heavily in research like IBM, Google, and Microsoft. Economic benefits are predicted but job losses and risks from advanced AI also exist.
- Other technologies like augmented
Jim Spohrer provides considerations for AI projects. He recommends performing an audit of existing AI projects and evolving evaluation criteria to include performance and trust. Spohrer also emphasizes the importance of celebrating victories, rewarding talent development through diversity and upskilling, and monitoring technology developments. He warns against underestimating ongoing costs and overestimating short-term impacts. Spohrer outlines timelines for AI progress based on compute costs and provides frameworks for benchmarking and evaluating AI capabilities.
This document discusses the future of artificial intelligence and cognitive systems. It presents a timeline for solving various AI problems from 2012 to 2039. It also discusses experts who may be surprised if certain problems are solved faster or slower than predicted. The document outlines leaders and benchmarks in AI progress. It discusses the potential benefits of AI, such as increased productivity and access to expertise, as well as risks like job loss and potential issues from superintelligence. It suggests strategies for stakeholders to prepare for and benefit from advances in AI.
Jim Spohrer from IBM gave a talk on the future of AI. Some key points:
1) IBM is heavily involved in open source AI through its Cognitive Opentech Group and projects on GitHub. Leaderboards like SQuAD are used to measure progress.
2) The timeline for solving difficult AI problems like commonsense reasoning and learning from experience is 5-10 more years. Job and skills impacts will be felt sooner.
3) Stakeholders at all levels need to participate in and learn about open source AI to help build the future and prepare for changes. Understanding how to rapidly rebuild systems from scratch will be important.
IBM has been working on AI for decades, with early pioneers like Nathan Rochester. Currently, IBM is focusing on making AI more accessible through open source projects like CODAIT and Model Asset eXchange. IBM contributes to many open source projects related to AI and machine learning like Apache Spark. The future of AI involves continuing to build better basic building blocks for tasks like perception, reasoning and social skills. Ensuring AI is developed responsibly to benefit humanity is important as the technology progresses.
The document summarizes a presentation on the future of AI. It discusses measuring progress through leaderboards, with countries like Korea and China leading in industrial robot adoption. It outlines questions around timelines for solving AI, who is driving progress, and potential benefits and risks. These include job loss as a short term risk and superintelligence as a longer term risk. Other technologies like augmented reality may have a bigger impact. Stakeholders in AI include individuals, businesses, governments, and more. The presentation emphasizes preparing for AI through participating in open source projects, leaderboard challenges, and learning about related fields.
Jim from IBM discusses various topics related to artificial intelligence including:
- The timeline for solving different AI problems and reaching human-level performance on benchmarks.
- Leaders and communities driving progress in open source AI.
- Potential benefits of AI including increasing productivity and GDP, as well as risks that need to be addressed.
- Preparing students and citizens for future jobs and skills needed in an increasingly automated world.
- The importance of open source communities working on challenges like bias and fairness in AI.
The document is a slide presentation given by Jim Spohrer of IBM on October 12, 2017 about artificial intelligence (AI) and intelligence augmentation (IA). Some key points from the presentation include:
- AI has made progress in areas like pattern recognition, learning from large labeled datasets, and games/translation but still faces challenges in video understanding, episodic memory, commonsense reasoning and more.
- IA pairs people with AI/cognitive systems to enhance human capabilities. As AI capabilities progress over time, cognitive systems may become collaborative partners, coaches, and mediators to help people.
- Future benefits of AI include access to expertise to boost productivity and better choices through collaboration, while near term risks include job loss
Jim Spohrer from IBM discusses the future of AI, noting that while deep learning has advanced pattern recognition using large datasets and computing power, true AI requires commonsense reasoning that will take longer to achieve. He outlines IBM's work in AI over time, from early pioneers to current projects, and proposes a framework for benchmarking progress towards human-level AI based on capabilities like perception, cognition, and social skills.
Jim from IBM discusses the future of AI. He talks about successes in AI such as image recognition and challenges such as commonsense reasoning. IBM has launched various initiatives related to AI such as the IBM-MIT collaboration and IBM Quantum. The Center for Open Source Data and AI Technologies (CODAIT) aims to make AI solutions easier to create and deploy using open source. The talk discusses types of AI systems, where AI is in the hype cycle, and how data is becoming AI. It outlines a roadmap for solving AI using leaderboards and better building blocks and discusses implications for identity, trust and resilience.
This document discusses IBM's OpenTechAI initiative and the state of open source AI projects on GitHub. It provides statistics on the most popular open source AI projects on GitHub, including the number of code stars and forks. TensorFlow, Keras, and Sci-kit Learn are among the most popular. The document also shows that IBM's own open source AI projects like INTU and FfDL have fewer stars and forks compared to projects from other large companies. It outlines steps for individuals to get involved in OpenTechAI like getting a GitHub account, learning through reading, replicating, and reporting on projects. Finally, it presents a potential framework for benchmarking and measuring progress in artificial intelligence.
Jim from IBM discusses the future of AI. He notes that while AI is currently hyped, pattern recognition using deep learning only works because of the large amounts of data and computing power now available. True AI requiring commonsense reasoning is still 5-10 years away. He outlines a timeline for solving different AI problems and notes IBM's $240 million partnership with MIT to advance AI. The benefits of AI include access to expertise and improved productivity, but risks include job loss and potential issues with superintelligence. Other technologies like augmented reality may have a larger impact. Stakeholders in AI include individuals, organizations, governments, and industries. [END SUMMARY]
1) The document discusses preparing for the future of artificial intelligence, including timelines for developing capabilities like commonsense reasoning and learning from doing.
2) It outlines potential benefits of AI like access to expertise and improved productivity, as well as risks like job loss, and recommends preparing by contributing to open source projects and improving skills.
3) Other emerging technologies like augmented reality, blockchain, and advanced materials could also have major impacts on individuals, businesses, industries and societies.
Similar to Ai progress = leaderboards compute data algorithms 20180817 v3 (20)
Spohrer on AI for SIRs Post 125 20240618 v6.pptxISSIP
Sons in Retirement (SIRs)
Post 125 San Jose
Host - Gene Plevyak
URL: https://sirinc2.org/branch125/
We are SIR Westgate Branch 125
We meet on the third Tuesday of the month
at the Three Flames Restaurant
1547 Meridian Ave., San Jose
Fellowship Hour: 11:00 AM
Host Santokh Badesha: https://www.linkedin.com/in/santokh-badesha-24b72916/
Recommended Readings (If Possible, Skim Before the Talk)
Patent: Management of Usage Costs of a Resource (IBM)
Jim Spohrer patent: Graphical Interface for Interacting Constrained Actors (Apple)
Jim Spohrer's Google Scholar Profile, includes open publications as well as patents
Apple's ATG Authoring Tools - Balancing Open and Proprietary Work
Forbes - Cognitive World
AI Magazine - Role of Open Source in AI
AI and Education 20240327 v16 for Northeastern.pptxISSIP
Prof. Mark L. Miller (https://www.linkedin.com/in/mlmiller751/), Northeastern University, class on AI and Education
Speaker: Jim Spohrer (https://www.linkedin.com/in/spohrer/)
===
Speaker: Dr. Jim Spohrer, retired Apple and IBM executive, currently Board of Directors for ISSIP.org (International Society of Service Innovation Professionals).
Title: AI and Education: A Historical Perspective and Possible Future Directions
Abstract: This talk will briefly survey my 50 years working in the area of AI & Education. At MIT (1974- 1978), MIT's summer EXPLO schools for AI and entrepreneurship classes. At Verbex (1978-1982), speech recognition, language models, early generative AI. At Yale (1982-1989), MARCEL, a generate- test-and-debug architecture and student model of programming bugs. At Apple (1989-1998), from content (SK8) to community (EOE) to context (WorldBoard). At IBM (1999 - 2021), service science and open source AI. At ISSIP (2021-present), generative AI and digital twins.
Bio:Jim’s Bio (142 words):
Jim Spohrer is a student of service science and open-source, trusted AI. He is a retired industry executive (Apple, IBM), who is a member of the Board of Directors of the non-profit International Society of Service Innovation Professionals (ISSIP). At IBM, he served as Director for Open Source AI/Data, Global University Programs, IBM Almaden Service Research, and CTO IBM Venture Capital Relations Group. At Apple, he achieved Distinguished Engineer Scientist Technologist (DEST) for authoring and learning platforms. After MIT (BS/Physics), he developed speech recognition systems at Verbex (Exxon), then Yale (PhD/Computer Science AI). With over ninety publications and nine patents, awards include AMA ServSIG Christopher Lovelock Career Contributions to the Service Discipline, Evert Gummesson Service Research, Vargo-Lusch Service-Dominant Logic, Daniel Berg Service Systems, and PICMET Fellow for advancing service science. In 2021, Jim was appointed a UIDP Senior Fellow (University-Industry Demonstration Partnership).
Readings:Apple's ATG Authoring Tools:
URL: https://dl.acm.org/doi/pdf/10.1145/279044.279173 Blog: WorldBoard
URL: https://service-science.info/archives/2060 Blog: Reflecting on Generative AI and Digital Twins
URL: https://service-science.info/archives/6521 Book: Service in the AI Era
Attached: Pages 46-54.Video: Speech Recognition (History)
URL: https://youtu.be/G9z4VAsw_kw
Thanks, -Jim
--Jim Spohrer, PhDBoard of Directors, ISSIP (International Society of Service Innovation Professionals) Board of Directors, ServCollab ("Serving Humanity Through Collaboration")Senior Fellow, UIDP ("Strengthening University-Industry Partnerships")Retired Industry Executive (Apple, IBM)
March 20, 2024
Host Ganesan Narayanasamy (https://www.linkedin.com/in/ganesannarayanasamy/)
Uploaded here:
===
Event 20230320
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/ganesannarayanasamy_productnation-semiconductorproductnation-activity-7174119132114620418-jvpx
Themed Shaping a Sustainable $1 Trillion Era, semicondynamics.org 2024 will gather industry experts on March 20th at Milpitas, California , for insights into the latest trends and innovations Accelerating AI with Semiconductor RTL Front end services and workforce development. The event will feature keynotes from the Semiconductor ecosystem, academia and Industries.
March 20, 2024
Host Ganesan Narayanasamy (https://www.linkedin.com/in/ganesannarayanasamy/)
Uploaded here:
===
Event 20230320
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/ganesannarayanasamy_productnation-semiconductorproductnation-activity-7174119132114620418-jvpx
Themed Shaping a Sustainable $1 Trillion Era, semicondynamics.org 2024 will gather industry experts on March 20th at Milpitas, California , for insights into the latest trends and innovations Accelerating AI with Semiconductor RTL Front end services and workforce development. The event will feature keynotes from the Semiconductor ecosystem, academia and Industries.
Jim Spohrer is an advisor to industry, academia, governments, startups and non-profits on topics of AI upskilling, innovation strategy, and win-win service in the AI era. He is a retired IBM executive and was previously the director of IBM's open-source AI developer ecosystem effort. In this talk, Spohrer discusses topics such as how to keep up with accelerating change, verifying results from generative AI, and understanding how generative AI works through concepts like monkeys at typewriters in high dimensional spaces. He emphasizes balancing hype with realism and doing work alongside gaining knowledge.
This document contains notes from a presentation by Jim Spohrer on leadership, career experiences, and technology topics. The presentation covers collaborating with others, teamwork practices, storytelling, communication skills, leadership habits and mindsets. It includes links to Spohrer's online profiles and resources. Tables provide estimates of increasing GDP per employee over time and a timeline of Spohrer's career highlights and accomplishments in the fields of service science and artificial intelligence.
It my pleasure to be with you all today – thanks to my host for the opportunity to speak with you all today.
Host: Leonard Walletzky <qwalletz@fi.muni.cz> (https://www.linkedin.com/in/leonardwalletzky/) +420 549 49 7690
Google Scholar: https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=aUvbsmwAAAAJ&hl=cs
Katrina Motkova (https://www.linkedin.com/in/kateřina-moťková-mba-a964a3175/en/?originalSubdomain=cz)
Speaker: Jim Spohrer <spohrer@gmail.com> (https://www.linkedin.com/in/spohrer/) +1-408-829-3112
I am Jim Spohrer, a retired Apple and IBM Executive, and currently a UIDP Senior Fellow, on the Board of Directors of ISSIP and ServCollab.
I am retired, meaning my primary activities are family-oriented – families are the oldest and most important type of service systems
I volunteer to help non-profits, mentor students, professionals, and retiree (some in retirement communities where the average age is 85) on AI & service science
My hobbies are hiking, reading, programming, and building my AI digital twin and humanoid robots for maintaining farms and farming equipment.
My hobbies are also trying to understand as much as I can about the system called the universe and mult-verse, and robots to rapidly rebuild civilization including themselves from scratch.
2001 - Nonzero: The Logic of Human Desitiny (Wright) - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonzero:_The_Logic_of_Human_Destiny
2015 - Geek Heresy: Rescuing Social Change from the Cult of Technology - https://www.amazon.com/Geek-Heresy-Rescuing-Social-Technology/dp/161039528X
2021 - Humankind: A Hopeful History (Bregman) - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humankind:_A_Hopeful_History
Humankind - https://www.amazon.com/Humankind-Hopeful-History-Rutger-Bregman/dp/0316418536
Humankind Book Review - https://service-science.info/archives/5654
2022 - Service in the AI Era: Science, Logic, and Architecture Perspectives (2022) by Spohrer, Maglio, Vargo, Warg - https://www.amazon.com/Service-AI-Era-Architecture-Perspectives/dp/1637423039
2023 - Design for a Better World: Meaningful, Sustainable, Humanity-Centered (2023) by Don Norman - https://www.amazon.com/Design-Better-World-Meaningful-Sustainable/dp/0262047950/
It my pleasure to be with you all today – thanks to my host for the opportunity to speak with you all today.
Host: Leonard Walletzky <qwalletz@fi.muni.cz> (https://www.linkedin.com/in/leonardwalletzky/) +420 549 49 7690
Google Scholar: https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=aUvbsmwAAAAJ&hl=cs
Katrina Motkova (https://www.linkedin.com/in/kateřina-moťková-mba-a964a3175/en/?originalSubdomain=cz)
Speaker: Jim Spohrer <spohrer@gmail.com> (https://www.linkedin.com/in/spohrer/) +1-408-829-3112
I am Jim Spohrer, a retired Apple and IBM Executive, and currently a UIDP Senior Fellow, on the Board of Directors of ISSIP and ServCollab.
I am retired, meaning my primary activities are family-oriented – families are the oldest and most important type of service systems
I volunteer to help non-profits, mentor students, professionals, and retiree (some in retirement communities where the average age is 85) on AI & service science
My hobbies are hiking, reading, programming, and building my AI digital twin and humanoid robots for maintaining farms and farming equipment.
My hobbies are also trying to understand as much as I can about the system called the universe and mult-verse, and robots to rapidly rebuild civilization including themselves from scratch.
2001 - Nonzero: The Logic of Human Desitiny (Wright) - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonzero:_The_Logic_of_Human_Destiny
2015 - Geek Heresy: Rescuing Social Change from the Cult of Technology - https://www.amazon.com/Geek-Heresy-Rescuing-Social-Technology/dp/161039528X
2021 - Humankind: A Hopeful History (Bregman) - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humankind:_A_Hopeful_History
Humankind - https://www.amazon.com/Humankind-Hopeful-History-Rutger-Bregman/dp/0316418536
Humankind Book Review - https://service-science.info/archives/5654
2022 - Service in the AI Era: Science, Logic, and Architecture Perspectives (2022) by Spohrer, Maglio, Vargo, Warg - https://www.amazon.com/Service-AI-Era-Architecture-Perspectives/dp/1637423039
2023 - Design for a Better World: Meaningful, Sustainable, Humanity-Centered (2023) by Don Norman - https://www.amazon.com/Design-Better-World-Meaningful-Sustainable/dp/0262047950/
Brno-IESS 20240206 v10 service science ai.pptxISSIP
It my pleasure to be with you all today – thanks to my host for the opportunity to speak with you all today.
Host: Leonard Walletzky <qwalletz@fi.muni.cz> (https://www.linkedin.com/in/leonardwalletzky/) +420 549 49 7690
Google Scholar: https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=aUvbsmwAAAAJ&hl=cs
Katrina Motkova (https://www.linkedin.com/in/kateřina-moťková-mba-a964a3175/en/?originalSubdomain=cz)
Speaker: Jim Spohrer <spohrer@gmail.com> (https://www.linkedin.com/in/spohrer/) +1-408-829-3112
NordicHouse 20240116 AI Quantum IFTF dfiscussionv7.pptxISSIP
Jim Spohrer presented on AI and quantum computing. He discussed the history of AI from the 1955 Dartmouth workshop to modern advances like AlphaGo, GPT-3, and DALL-E 2. Spohrer noted that computation costs have decreased exponentially over time, driving increases in knowledge worker productivity. He highlighted several experts and resources he follows to stay informed on AI capabilities and implications. Spohrer sees opportunities to improve learning and performance through advances in learning sciences, technology, lifelong learning, and early education. The talk addressed how generative AI works and challenges around verification.
20240104 HICSS Panel on AI and Legal Ethical 20240103 v7.pptxISSIP
20240103 HICSS Panel
Ethical and legal implications raised by Generative AI and Augmented Reality in the workplace.
Souren Paul - https://www.linkedin.com/in/souren-paul-a3bbaa5/
Event: https://kmeducationhub.de/hawaii-international-conference-on-system-sciences-hicss/
Congratulations to the organizers of the “Symposium for Celebrating 40 Years of Bayesian Learning in Speech and Language Processing” and to Prof. Chin-Hui Lee of Georgia Tech the Honorary Chair of the Symposium.
Thanks to Huck Yang (Amazon) for the invitation to record this short message.
Huck Yang
URL: https://www.linkedin.com/in/huckyang/
Event: https://bayesian40.github.io
Recording:
Slides:
URL: https://professionalschool.eitdigital.eu/generative-ai-essentials
Course on Generative Al
Description:
Generative AI is a world-changing power tool that is getting better by the day. So now is the time to get truly inspired, climb up the learning curve, and unleash more of your creative potential.
Learning Topics:
* Inspiration: What is Generative AI in the context of AI's history, present, and future
* Climbing Up: Ways to accelerate your learning trajectory
* Unleashing Creativity: Ways to stay future-ready in the AI era
What You'll Take Away:
By the end of this session, you'll understand the importance of upskilling with today's generative AI tools to get more work done, both faster and at higher quality, as well as some pitfalls to avoid, all within the broader context of the past, present, and future of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Intelligence Augmentation (IA).
Learning Topics
Inspiration: What is Generative AI in the context of AI's history, present, and future.
Climbing Up: Ways to accelerate your learning trajectory.
Unleashing Creativity: Ways to stay future-ready in the AI era.
Deep dive into ChatGPT's features.
Techniques for basic and advanced prompting and real-world applications.
- Service science has progressed significantly in the past two decades since its inception in the early 2000s.
- However, there is still a long way to go to fully realize the potential of service science and its role in areas like upskilling with AI.
- Looking ahead, some of the biggest challenges will be upskilling entire nations with AI for digital transformation, while also decarbonizing nations through sustainable energy infrastructure - both accomplished through service-based business models.
How to Setup Warehouse & Location in Odoo 17 InventoryCeline George
In this slide, we'll explore how to set up warehouses and locations in Odoo 17 Inventory. This will help us manage our stock effectively, track inventory levels, and streamline warehouse operations.
Walmart Business+ and Spark Good for Nonprofits.pdfTechSoup
"Learn about all the ways Walmart supports nonprofit organizations.
You will hear from Liz Willett, the Head of Nonprofits, and hear about what Walmart is doing to help nonprofits, including Walmart Business and Spark Good. Walmart Business+ is a new offer for nonprofits that offers discounts and also streamlines nonprofits order and expense tracking, saving time and money.
The webinar may also give some examples on how nonprofits can best leverage Walmart Business+.
The event will cover the following::
Walmart Business + (https://business.walmart.com/plus) is a new shopping experience for nonprofits, schools, and local business customers that connects an exclusive online shopping experience to stores. Benefits include free delivery and shipping, a 'Spend Analytics” feature, special discounts, deals and tax-exempt shopping.
Special TechSoup offer for a free 180 days membership, and up to $150 in discounts on eligible orders.
Spark Good (walmart.com/sparkgood) is a charitable platform that enables nonprofits to receive donations directly from customers and associates.
Answers about how you can do more with Walmart!"
This presentation was provided by Rebecca Benner, Ph.D., of the American Society of Anesthesiologists, for the second session of NISO's 2024 Training Series "DEIA in the Scholarly Landscape." Session Two: 'Expanding Pathways to Publishing Careers,' was held June 13, 2024.
Temple of Asclepius in Thrace. Excavation resultsKrassimira Luka
The temple and the sanctuary around were dedicated to Asklepios Zmidrenus. This name has been known since 1875 when an inscription dedicated to him was discovered in Rome. The inscription is dated in 227 AD and was left by soldiers originating from the city of Philippopolis (modern Plovdiv).
ISO/IEC 27001, ISO/IEC 42001, and GDPR: Best Practices for Implementation and...PECB
Denis is a dynamic and results-driven Chief Information Officer (CIO) with a distinguished career spanning information systems analysis and technical project management. With a proven track record of spearheading the design and delivery of cutting-edge Information Management solutions, he has consistently elevated business operations, streamlined reporting functions, and maximized process efficiency.
Certified as an ISO/IEC 27001: Information Security Management Systems (ISMS) Lead Implementer, Data Protection Officer, and Cyber Risks Analyst, Denis brings a heightened focus on data security, privacy, and cyber resilience to every endeavor.
His expertise extends across a diverse spectrum of reporting, database, and web development applications, underpinned by an exceptional grasp of data storage and virtualization technologies. His proficiency in application testing, database administration, and data cleansing ensures seamless execution of complex projects.
What sets Denis apart is his comprehensive understanding of Business and Systems Analysis technologies, honed through involvement in all phases of the Software Development Lifecycle (SDLC). From meticulous requirements gathering to precise analysis, innovative design, rigorous development, thorough testing, and successful implementation, he has consistently delivered exceptional results.
Throughout his career, he has taken on multifaceted roles, from leading technical project management teams to owning solutions that drive operational excellence. His conscientious and proactive approach is unwavering, whether he is working independently or collaboratively within a team. His ability to connect with colleagues on a personal level underscores his commitment to fostering a harmonious and productive workplace environment.
Date: May 29, 2024
Tags: Information Security, ISO/IEC 27001, ISO/IEC 42001, Artificial Intelligence, GDPR
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Find out more about ISO training and certification services
Training: ISO/IEC 27001 Information Security Management System - EN | PECB
ISO/IEC 42001 Artificial Intelligence Management System - EN | PECB
General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) - Training Courses - EN | PECB
Webinars: https://pecb.com/webinars
Article: https://pecb.com/article
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For more information about PECB:
Website: https://pecb.com/
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/pecb/
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PECBInternational/
Slideshare: http://www.slideshare.net/PECBCERTIFICATION
ISO/IEC 27001, ISO/IEC 42001, and GDPR: Best Practices for Implementation and...
Ai progress = leaderboards compute data algorithms 20180817 v3
1. AI Progress =Leaderboards + Compute + Data + Algorithms
• Leaderboard Timeline (Open Competitions)
• Compute Power Timeline (“Zorch”)
• Data Labeled Progression
• Algorithm Model Progression
• Preparing for the Future
• IBM Code: CODAIT and MAX
• Trust and Resilience
• Call For Code (United Nations, Red Cross, Linux Foundation, IBM, etc.)
8/17/2018 IBM Code #OpenTechAI 1
2. AI Timeline: Leaderboards Framework
AI Progress on Open Leaderboards - Benchmark Roadmap
Perceive World Develop Cognition Build Relationships Fill Roles
Pattern
recognition
Video
understanding
Memory Reasoning Social
interactions
Fluent
conversation
Assistant &
Collaborator
Coach &
Mediator
Speech Actions Declarative Deduction Scripts Speech Acts Tasks Institutions
Chime Thumos SQuAD SAT ROC Story ConvAI
Images Context Episodic Induction Plans Intentions Summarizatio
n
Values
ImageNet VQA DSTC RALI General-AI
Translation Narration Dynamic Abductive Goals Cultures Debate Negotiation
WMT DeepVideo Alexa Prize ICCMA AT
Learning from Labeled Training Data and Searching (Optimization)
Learning by Watching and Reading (Education)
Learning by Doing and being Responsible (Exploration)
2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036
8/17/2018 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 2
Which experts would be really surprised if it takes less time… and which experts really surprised if it takes longer?
Approx.
Year
Human
Level ->
3. Compute Timeline: Every 20 years,
compute costs are down by 1000x
• Cost of Digital Workers
• Moore’s Law can be thought of as
lowering costs by a factor of a…
• Thousand times lower
in 20 years
• Million times lower
in 40 years
• Billion times lower
in 60 years
• Smarter Tools (Terascale)
• Terascale (2017) = $3K
• Terascale (2020) = ~$1K
• Narrow Worker (Petascale)
• Recognition (Fast)
• Petascale (2040) = ~$1K
• Broad Worker (Exascale)
• Reasoning (Slow)
• Exascale (2060) = ~$1K
38/17/2018 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group
2080204020001960
$1K
$1M
$1B
$1T
206020201980
+/- 10 years
$1
Person Average
Annual Salary
(Living Income)
Super Computer
Cost
Mainframe Cost
Smartphone Cost
T
P
E
T P E
AI Progress on Open Leaderboards
Benchmark Roadmap to solve AI/IA
4. Compute Timeline: GDP/Employee
8/17/2018 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 4
(Source)
Lower compute costs translate into increasing productivity and GDP/employees for nations
Increasing productivity and GDP/employees should translate into wealthier citizens
AI Progress on Open Leaderboards
Benchmark Roadmap to solve AI/IA
5. Data: 10 million minutes of experience
8/17/2018 Understanding Cognitive Systems 5
6. Data: 2 million minutes of experience
8/17/2018 Understanding Cognitive Systems 6
7. Hardware < Software < Data < Experience < Transformation
8/17/2018 Understanding Cognitive Systems 7
Value migrates
Pine & Gilmore (1999)
Transformation
Roy et al (2006)
Data
Osati (2014)
Experience
Life Log
9. Future algorithms built from models:
Models become instruction set of future
8/17/2018 Understanding Cognitive Systems 9
Task & World Model/
Planning & Decisions
Self Model/
Capacity & Limits
User Model/
Episodic Memory
Institutions Model/
Trust & Social Acts
Tool + - - -
Assistant ++ + - -
Collaborator +++ ++ + -
Coach ++++ +++ ++ +
Mediator +++++ ++++ +++ ++
Cognitive
Tool
Cognitive
Assistant
Cognitive
Collaborator
Cognitive
Coach
Cognitive
Mediator
10. Step Comment
GitHub Get an account and read the guide
Learn 3 R's - Read, Redo, Report Read (Medium/arXiv), Redo (GitHub), Report (Jupyter Notebook)
Kaggle Compete in a Kaggle competition
Leaderboards Compete to advance AI progress
Figure Eight Generate a set of labeled data (also Mechanical Turk)
Design New Challenges build an AI system that can take and pass any online course, then
switch to tutor-mode and help you pass
Open Source Guide Establish open source culture in your organization
8/17/2018 IBM Code #OpenTechAI 10
12. Courses
• 2015
• “How to build a cognitive system for Q&A task.”
• 9 months to 40% question answering accuracy
• 1-2 years for 90% accuracy, which questions to reject
• 2025
• “How to use a cognitive system to be a better professional X.”
• Tools to build a student level Q&A from textbook in 1 week
• 2035
• “How to use your cognitive mediator to build a startup.”
• Tools to build faculty level Q&A for textbook in one day
• Cognitive mediator knows a person better than they know themselves
• 2055
• “How to manage your workforce of digital workers.”
• Most people have 100 digital workers.
8/17/2018 12
Take free online cognitive classes today at cognitiveclass.ai
16. “The best way to predict the future is to inspire the
next generation of students to build it better”
Digital Natives Transportation Water Manufacturing
Energy Construction ICT Retail
Finance Healthcare Education Government
17. Trust: Two Communities
8/17/2018 IBM Code #OpenTechAI 17
Service
Science
OpenTech
AI
Trust:
Value Co-Creation,
Transdisciplinary
Trust:
Ethical, Safe, Explainable,
Open Communities
Special Issue
AI Magazine?
Handbook of
OpenTech AI?
18. Resilience:
Rapidly Rebuilding From Scratch
• Dartnell L (2012) The Knowledge: How to
Rebuild Civilization in the Aftermath of a
Cataclysm. Westminster London: Penguin
Books.
8/17/2018 IBM Code #OpenTechAI 18
IBM Code: http://ibm.com/code
CODAIT: http://codait.org/
MAX: https://developer.ibm.com/code/exchanges/models/
Call For Code: https://callforcode.org/
To reuse, send request to Jim Spohrer <spohrer@gmail.com>
To cite:
Spohrer J (2019) AI Progress = Leaderboards + Compurer + Data + Algorithms. URL = http://slideshare.net/spohrer/ai-progress-=-leaderboards-computer-data-algorithms-20180817-v3
Also cite:
Rouse WB, Spohrer JC (2018) Automating versus augmenting intelligence. Journal of Enterprise Transformation. 2018 Feb 7:1-21.
What is beyond Exascale? Zetta (21), Yotta (24)
Time dimension (x-axis) is plus or minus 10 years….
Daniel Pakkala (VTT)
URL: https://aiimpacts.org/preliminary-prices-for-human-level-hardware/
Dan Gruhl:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/business/1983/11/06/in-pursuit-of-the-10-gigaflop-machine/012c995a-2b16-470b-96df-d823c245306e/?utm_term=.d4bde5652826
In 1983 10 GF was ~10 million.
That's 24.55 million in today's dollars.
or 2.4 billion for 1 TF in 1983
Today 1 TF is about $3k http://www.popsci.com/intel-teraflop-chip
Source: http://service-science.info/archives/4741
Where is the variety? Hardware and even software standardizing into modules and algorithms…. Data will standardize next into categories and types…. Experience is where the uniqueness is, and variety and variability, and identity.
Pine and Gilmore – Experience Economy Book – Chapter 10 – Transformation Economy - https://www.amazon.com/Experience-Economy-Theater-Every-Business/dp/0875848192#reader_0875848192
Pine II, B. J. & Gilmore, J. H. (1999). The experience economy: work is theatre & every business a stage. Harvard Business Press. pp: 186-189. (Chapter 10 is about the transformation economy)
Osati, Sohrab (Dec 18, 2014) Sony Lifelog App Gains GPS Support for Android Wear. SonyRumors.net
http://www.sonyrumors.net/2014/12/18/sony-lifelog-app-gains-gps-support-for-android-wear/
Roy, D., Patel, R., DeCamp, P., Kubat, R., Fleischman, M., Roy, B., ... & Levit, M. (2006). The human speechome project. In Symbol Grounding and Beyond (pp. 192-196). Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg.
1950 Nathaniel Rochester (IBM) 701 first commercial computer that did super-human levels of numeric calculations routinely. He worked at MIT on arithmetic unit of WhirlWind I programmable computer.
Dota 2 is most recent August 11, 2017 as a super-human game player in Valve Dota 2 competition – Elon Musk’s OpenAI result.
Miles Bundage tracks gaming progress: http://www.milesbrundage.com/blog-posts/my-ai-forecasts-past-present-and-future-main-post
DOTA2: https://blog.openai.com/more-on-dota-2/
GitHub – open source code – http://github.com
Kaggle – data and competitions – http://Kaggle.com
Leaderboard – AI an competitions - https://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/leaderboards-80909263
Figure Eight – label data - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Figure_Eight_Inc.
Open Source Guides – reader, contributor, committer, governance - https://opensource.guide/
GitHub is to knowledge in action (writing code) as Wikidedia is to knowledge in text (writing text)
Github registration URL: https://github.com/
Lukas Kaiser – one model that can do all leaderboard best - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8FpdEmySsuc
T2T URL: https://github.com/tensorflow/tensor2tensor
T2T iPython Notebook URL: https://colab.research.google.com/notebook#fileId=/v2/external/notebooks/t2t/hello_t2t.ipynb
One favorite that can do them all: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8FpdEmySsuc
URLs
Github: code, content (data), community – http://github.com
Kaggle: competition and leaderboards - http://Kaggle.com
Figure-Eight: lots of labeled data – http://figure-eight.com
Rapidly Rebuild: Danko Nicolic - AI Kindergarten (Practopoesis) - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aMQCi3Sn2mE
Lukas Kaiser wants to get one model that can do all leaderboards – one model to do them all
Danko Nicolic wants to rapidly rebuild from scratch intelligent agents (that behave well socially with people)– rapid rebuilding
Free online cognitive classe URL: https://cognitiveclass.ai/
Here is what I tell students....
... to try to provoke their thinking about the cognitive era:
(0) 2015 - about 9 months to build a formative Q&A system - 40% accuracy;
- another 1-2 years and a team of 10-20, can get it to 90% accuracy, by reducing the scope ("sorry that question is out of scope")
- today's systems can only answer questions, if the answers are already existing in the text explicitly
- debater is an example of where we would like to get to though in 5 years: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7g59PJxbGhY
- more about the ambitions at http://cognitive-science.info
(1) 2025: Watson will be able to rapidly ingest just about any textbooks and produce a Q&A system
- the Q&A system will rival C-grade (average) student performance on questions
(2) 2035 - above, but rivals C-level (average) faculty performance on questions
(3) 2035 - an exascale of compute power costs about $1000
- an exascale is the equivalent compute of one person's brain power (at 20W power)
(4) 2035 - nearly everyone has a cognitive mediator that knows them in many ways better than they know themselves
- memory of all health information, memory of everyone you have ever interacted with, executive assistant, personal coach, process and memory aid, etc.
(5) 2055 - nearly everyone has 100 cognitive assistants that "work for them"
- better management of your cognitive assistant workforce is a course taught at university
In 2015, we are at the beginning of the beginning or the cognitive era...
In 2025, we will be middle of beginning... easy to generate average student level performance on questions in textbook....
In 2035, we will be end of beginning (one brain power equivalent)... easy to generate average faculty level performance on questions in textbook....
http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/spohrer-ubi-learn-20151103-v2
By 2055, roughly 2x 20 year generations out, the cognitive era will be in full force.
Cellphones will likely become body suits - with burst-mode super-strength and super-safety features:
Suits - body suit cell phones
Cognitive Mediators will read everything for us, and relate the information to us - and what we know and our goals.
Think combined personal coach, executive assistant, personal research team....
The key is knowing which problem to work on next - see this long video for the answer - energy, water, food, wellness - and note especially the wellness suit at the end:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YY7f1t9y9a0&index=10&list=WL
Do not be put off by the beginning of the video - it is a bit over hyped and trivial, to say the leasat... but the projects are really good if you have the patience to watch.
Source: Vijay Bommireddipally (CODAIT Director) and Fred Reiss (CODAIT Chief Architect)
The weakest link is what needs to be improved – according to system scientists. Accessing help, service, experts is the weakest link in most systems.
By 2035 the phone may have the power of one human brain – by 2055 the phone may have the power of all human brains.
Before trying to answer the question about which types of sciences are more important – the ones that try to explain the external world or the ones that try to explain the internal world – consider this, slide that shows the different telephones that I have used in my life. I grew up in rural Maine, where we had a party line telephone because we were somewhat remote on our farm in Newburgh, Maine.
However, over the years phones got much better…. So in 2035 or 2055, who are you going to call when you need help?
By 2036, there will be an accumulation of knowledge as well as a distribution of knowledge in service systems globally. We need to ensure as there is knowledge accumulation that service systems at all scale become more resilient. Leading to the capability of rapid rebuilding of service systems across scales, by T-shaped people who understand how to rapidly rebuild – knowledge has been chunked, modularized, and put into networks that support rapid rebuilding.
URL Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Knowledge-Rebuild-Civilization-Aftermath-Cataclysm-ebook/dp/B00DMCV5YS/
URL TED Talk: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CdTzsbqQyhY
Citation: Dartnell L (2012) The Knowledge: How to Rebuild Civilization in the Aftermath of a Cataclysm. Westminster London: Penguin Books.
Jim Spohrer Blogs:
Grand Challenge: http://service-science.info/archives/2189
Re-readings: http://service-science.info/archives/4416