How to Estimate & Forecast Properly in Agile Projects

1. 1
Agile Estimation & Forecasting

3. We are here to
Support our companies in their
digital transformation​ process
by
helping teams to apply best practices
and state of the art methodologies​
so that
they can leverage their full potential
to build successful IIOT products

4. Körber Digital – Center of Digital Excellence

5. Körber Digital – Center of Digital Excellence
Estimating in relative sizes
This
That
Looks 2X smaller than

6. Plumbing
Decoration
Carpets
Körber Digital – Center of Digital Excellence
Effort Estimation
6
Build Walls
Windows
Build Roof
Swimming
Pool
Heating
0
100
2
5
13
20
40
Story Points
Story Points: 0, ½, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 20, 40, 100
Fibonacci Sequence: 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, …

7. Körber Digital – Center of Digital Excellence
Value Estimation
7
Value Points
Build Walls
100 SP
Windows
20 SP
0
200
400
600
800
1000
Decoration
5 SP Carpets
2 SP
Swimming
Pool
100 SP
Plumbing
40 SP
Build Roof
40 SP
Heating
13 SP
1000 VP 800 VP
650 VP
700 VP
600 VP
50 VP
400 VP
150 VP
Value Score (VS): 𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒
𝐸𝑓𝑓𝑜𝑟𝑡
=
𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑃𝑜𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑠 (𝑉𝑃)
𝑆𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑦 𝑃𝑜𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑠 (𝑆𝑃)
10 VS 20 VS
16 VS 35 VS
46 VS
4 VS
30 VS
25 VS
High Value Score:
Much value for less effort
Low Value Score:
Few value for much effort

8. Körber Digital – Center of Digital Excellence
Value Optimized Backlog Creation
8
100 SP 1000 VP10 VSBuild Walls
40 SP 800 VP20 VSBuild Roof
40 SP 700 VP18 VSPlumbing
20 SP 700 VP35 VSWindows
13 SP 600 VP46 VSHeating
100 SP 400 VP4 VSSwimming Pool
5 SP 150 VP30 VSDecoration
2 SP 50 VP25 VSCarpets
Value Maximized Backlog (VS sorted only) Value Optimized Backlog (mainly VS sorted)
100 SP 1000 VP10 VSBuild Walls
40 SP 800 VP20 VSBuild Roof
20 SP 650 VP33 VSWindows
40 SP 700 VP18 VSPlumbing
5 SP 150 VP30 VSDecoration
2 SP 50 VP25 VSCarpets
13 SP 600 VP46 VSHeating
100 SP 400 VP4 VSSwimming Pool

9. Körber Digital – Center of Digital Excellence
Forecasting
9
Iteration Committed Achieved Av. Velocity
1 100 0 0
2 140 140 70
1 Build the Walls
2 Build the Walls & Roof
How long does it take to build the house?
𝐷𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 =
𝑆𝑐𝑜𝑝𝑒 𝑙𝑒𝑓𝑡 (𝑆𝑃)
𝐴𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑉𝑒𝑙𝑜𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦
=
180
70
= 2,5 Iterations

10. How can we support you?
Contact us:
CoDE@koerber.digital
Visit us:
https://www.koerber-digital.com/