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ADVICE FOR THE WISE
September 2016
CONTENTS
• From The CEO’s Desk
• Did You Know?
• Domestic Equity Outlook
• Domestic Debt Outlook
• Domestic Debt Strategy
• Global Equity Outlook
• Global Economy Update
• Global Debt Outlook
• Sector Outlook
• Real Estate Outlook
• Commodities
• Foreign Exchange
• What’s Trending.
• Disclaimer
FROM THE CEO’s DESK
Dear Investors,
Ending months of speculation, the government finally appointed Dr. Urjit Patel as the next RBI Governor, who is set to take over the helm of affairs at
the Central Bank on 4th September. Equity markets, investors and the corporate world in general have given a big thumbs up to this announcement
as they anticipate a continuation of the policy stance implemented by Dr. Raghuram Rajan. Under Dr. Patel, the RBI is expected to continue its focus
on Inflation targeting, speedy recovery of the stressed assets of public sector banks and improvement of credit growth and the liquidity framework
within the country.
As a parting gift, Dr. Rajan announced a slew of measures aimed at boosting the corporate bond market, broadening the forex market and permitting
banks to issue masala bonds in overseas markets. The RBI will move to cap the exposure of banks to large borrowers, while at the same time permit
corporates to issue bonds to raise funding. This will prevent companies from being overly dependent on banks for their funding and permit regulated
investors (like insurance companies) to invest in bonds issued by a wider range of companies. Dr. Rajan indicated that the RBI will eventually start
accepting corporate bonds as collateral at its liquidity adjustment facility window, which essentially means that banks would be able to use corporate
bonds as security to borrow from the RBI. Separately, the central bank will allow banks to raise rupee resources through masala bonds as well as give
foreign investors direct access to the bond trading platforms. The impact of these reforms is likely to be far-reaching.
Meanwhile, as global liquidity flows sobered down, the Indian equity markets too tempered their frenetic pace. Nonetheless, the Nifty managed
to touch a 16-month high of 8800. Given the negative interest rate scenario in Japan and Europe, coupled with the volatility seen after the Brexit
referendum, the US Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates in its forthcoming meeting in September. Going ahead, we expect our
Indian markets to continue doing well and we urge investors to use every dip as a buying opportunity. As we enter into the festive season, we
expect the domestic consumption-driven stocks and sectors to take the markets to higher levels.
On a separate note, the performance of our women athletes at the Rio Olympics needs to be truly lauded. The dedication, enthusiasm and
commitment shown by our triumvirate of Sindhu, Sakshi and Dipa embody the never-given-in spirit of true winners. The nation is proud of them!
Let me end this note by wishing you all a Happy Ganesh Chaturthi! May Lord Ganesha shower his blessings on you and your families!
DID YOU KNOW
Argentina has highest interest
rates in the world 20% on one-year
time deposit.
.
As a economy China lifted more
people out of poverty than any
other country.
United States has the largest gold
Reserve more than 8,000 metric tons of
gold followed by Germany gold reserves
of approximately 3,378.2 metric tons
DOMESTIC EQUITY OUTLOOK
As on 25th
August 2016
1 Month Change
1 Year
Change
Equity Markets
BSE Sensex 27,835 -0.50% 8.25%
CNX Nifty 8,592 0.02% 10.27%
BSE Mid Cap 12,977 4.48% 23.87%
BSE Small Cap 12,501 2.90% 16.71%
80
90
100
110
120
130
140 S & P BSE Sensex CNX Nifty BSE Midcap BSE Smallcap
Emerging markets are being driven by global liquidity in search of
yields. While US has reiterated its resolve to increase interest
rates, Japan and the EU are engaged in a race to the bottom
driving monetary policy to uncharted territories. Investors are
debating the limits of monetary policy and looking forward to a
more creative use of fiscal policy by the developed economies.
Periodic spurts in global yields have failed to dampen the
enthusiasm of bond bulls. Although economic fundamentals in
India are progressively getting better, the next few months will not
be about Indian fundamentals. Global developments would be the
key driver of sentiments and stock prices.
DOMESTIC EQUITY OUTLOOK
GOVERNMENT POLICY
The much awaited GST bill has been finally passed by both houses of Parliament and is likely to be ratified by half the Indian state
legislatures paving the way for its rollout for FY17-18. Railway budget is likely to be subsumed in the Union budget for FY17-18
marking a historic departure from convention.
WHOLESALE PRICE INDEX
• India's wholesale prices index continued in positive territory at
3.55% for July, 2016 as compared to 1.62% for the month of
June.
• Food articles inflation increased in the month of June by
11.82%. Vegetables increased by 28.05%. Inflation in the fuel
and power segment was -1.0%, while that of manufactured
products it was 1.82% in June.
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
• CPI for the month of June remained flat at 5.77% as
compared to 5.76% in May.
• Year-on-year, cost of food and beverages rose 7.38 percent
(7.2 percent in May).
• The food prices rose by 7.79% compared to downwardly
revised 7.47% in the previous month.
Source – Tradingeconomics
-6.00%
-4.00%
-2.00%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16
WPI CPI
IIP
• Industrial output in India rose by 2,1 percent year-on-year in june of
2016, against upwardly revised 1.1% in May 2016.
• Manufacturing rose 0.9%, as against 0.6% in May. Meanwhile, the
mining sector output increased by 4.7% in May 2016.
GDP
• India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the first quarter
of the current financial year slowed down to 7.1% versus 7.9% for
the previous quarter.
• Private consumption growth eased to 6.7 percent from 8.3 percent
in the previous quarter while government spending jumped 18.8
percent, accelerating from a 2.9 percent growth in Q1. Gross fixed
capital formation shrank at a faster 3.1 percent, following a 1.9
percent contraction in the previous period.
Source – Tradingeconomics
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
IIP
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
GDP
DOMESTIC DEBT OUTLOOK
 The yields on 10 Yr G sec closed at 7.25% which is 21 bps
lower than the last months close of 7.43%
 The daily turnover for the notes on the Reserve Bank of India’s
dealing platform reached an unprecedented 1.43 trillion rupees
($21.4 billion) on 28th July. At 921 billion rupees, the daily
average value of securities traded for the month of July was
also an all-time high, and more than double the amount for the
first six months of 2016, as benchmark 10-year bonds capped
their best month since May 2013.
As on 25th
August 2016
1 Month
Change
1 Year Change
Debt Markets
10-Yr G-Sec-
Yield
7.12 (13bps) (67bps)
Fixed Deposit 7.25 0bps (75bps)
Source – Reuters
0
50
100
150
200
250
AAA AA+ AA AA- A+ A A- BBB+
Corporate Bond Spreads
5 Years 10 Years 15 Years
6.80
7.00
7.20
7.40
7.60
7.80
8.00
8.20
8.40
8.60
8.80 G-Sec
10 YR Gsec Yield 5 YR Gsec Yield 15 YR Gsec Yield
DOMESTIC DEBT STRATEGY
SHORT TERM DEBT Investors who have a low appetite for interest rate volatility and seeking accrual returns with moderate duration can
look at short term debt funds with the time horizon of 1 year to 2 years. Even though, most of the short term fund’s
YTMs have fallen to sub-8%, our recommended short term debt funds still have high YTMs (8%-10%) providing
interesting investment opportunities.
CORPORATE BOND
FUNDS
The macro economic outlook along with corporate profitability seems to be improving. We remain positive on the
credit outlook and look for opportunities in the credit space. The corporate bond market segment continues to be
attractive over the medium to long term. The yields are at elevated levels and interest rate outlook seems favourable.
The current scenario offers the potential opportunity to lock in higher accruals, with the expectation that these levels of
yields may not sustain over the short to medium term. With credit easing, there are chances that the companies’ rating
will be upgraded that would further cause a rally in bonds, which in turn will benefit corporate bond funds.
DYNAMIC BOND FUNDS As RBI has reduced the key policy rates, dynamic bond funds have benefited a lot as most of them have a mix of gilt
and long term bonds in their portfolio. Going ahead, we expect RBI to further reduce key policy rates only after
studying the macro-economic data such as inflation, movement in crude oil prices and so on. Investors who don’t want
to time the market and who can depend on fund managers to take view on interest rates can look at dynamic bond
funds.
LONG TERM DEBT FUNDS With the likelihood of another rate cut being minimal and the uncertainty with regard to the monsoon and global
commodity prices, particularly crude oil, a rally in G-Sec yields is unlikely. Investors should start exiting their
investments in Gilt Funds and Long Term Income Funds and go for accrual based short term funds.
GLOBAL EQUITY OUTLOOK
As on 25th
August 2016
1 Month
Change
1 Year
Change
Equity Markets
MSCI World 1727 1.25% 6.86%
Hang Seng 22814 3.10% 8.23%
S&P 500 2172 0.15% 11.95%
Nikkei 16555 1.06% -9.91%
GLOBAL INDICES
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
MSCI World Hang Seng S&P 500 Nikkei
GLOBAL EQUITY OUTLOOK
US is likely to increase interest rates in the September policy marking a decisive turn in the trajectory of global interest rates and a benign liquidity
environment.
GLOBAL ECONOMY UPDATE
UNITED STATES  U.S. to urge G20 to boost economies, pay attention to angry citizens U.S. President Barack Obama will
call on leaders from the Group of 20 to use fiscal policy and other tools to boost economic growth while
reducing excess capacity at steel factories.
 U.S. economic growth was slightly more tepid than initially thought in the second quarter as businesses
aggressively ran down inventories, offsetting a spurt in consumer spending. Gross domestic product
expanded at a 1.1 percent annual rate. That was modestly down from the 1.2 percent rate it reported last
month and also reflected more imports than previously estimated as well as weak government spending.
JAPAN
 Japanese manufacturing activity showed signs of steadying in August as output rose for the first time in
six months, in a tentative sign that the economy may be recovering from a slump earlier this year. The IHS
Markit/Nikkei Japan Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) edged up to 49.6 in August
from a final 49.3 in July on a seasonally adjusted basis.
 Japanese manufacturers' mood soured in August to its lowest since 2013 when the central bank
embarked on aggressive monetary easing. According to the Reuters poll, reflecting the pain caused by a
rising yen and highlighting the huge task facing policymakers to generate growth.
Source – Reuters
GLOBAL ECONOMY UPDATE
EUROPE  Higher exports, state spending propel German growth Solid economic growth generated a record budget
surplus for Germany in the first half of this year, stoking a debate within government about whether the
country should use its spare revenue to cut taxes or increase spending.
 London firms losing faith in quick-fix access to EU after Brexit Big financial groups in London are losing
faith in a quick fix to get access to the European Union after Britain leaves the bloc and are instead
drawing up contingency plans to avoid becoming hostage to Brussels politics.
EMERGING
ECONOMIES
 Indian factory activity expanded at its fastest pace since mid-2015 in August, helped by surging new
orders, while only modest price increases should give the central bank scope to ease policy further, ndian
annual economic growth slowed in the April-June quarter to 7.1 percent, short of expectations for 7.6
percent according Reuters poll.
 Activity in China's manufacturing sector unexpectedly expanded in August, though growth was modest.
The official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 50.4 in August, compared with the previous month's
49.9 and above the 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction on a monthly basis..
Source – Reuters
GLOBAL DEBT OUTLOOK
 The Russian government is hoping to tap the international capital
markets again this year and could raise another $1.25bn from a
Eurobond issue.
 Saudi Arabia will probably push ahead with the sale of at least $10
billion of bonds even if the U.S. raises interest rates next month,
spurred on by demand for emerging-market assets that may leave
enough room for other Gulf states to follow..
 Qatar National Bank is planning to tap the international bond
market, The bank is set to issue a 5-year bond of at least $500m,
adding to what has already been a record year of issuance for the
group.
Ratings Country 10 Yr G-Sec Yield
1 Month
Change
AAA
Germany -0.06% 4 bps
Hong Kong 0.97% 3 bps
Sweden 0.09% (2 bps)
Switzerland -0.46% 10 bps
AA+ USA 1.59% 10 bps
AA-
China 2.82% 3 bps
Japan -0.05% 9 bps
Source – Reuters
SECTOR OUTLOOK
SECTOR OUTLOOK
SECTOR STANCE REMARKS
Automobiles
Passenger vehicles and CVs will continue to outperform two-wheeler segment. Tractors to benefit on account of base
effect and normal monsoons.
Auto-ancillaries expected to do well due to revival of demand and stable global markets.
FMCG
We prefer “discretionary consumption” theme within FMCG. Key beneficiaries such as durables and branded garments,
as the growth in this segment will be disproportionately higher vis-à-vis the increase in disposable incomes. A bounce in
raw materials could put pressure on margins. Expect uptick in volumes post monsoons.
E&C
Order inflows expected to improve as spending and capital expenditure likely to move up on economic recovery.
Moreover, sluggish execution and weak macros create a challenging environment.
BFSI
Private sector banks continue to deliver earnings in line with expectations. However, PSBs delivering poor numbers on
higher slippages and lower credit growth. We expect this trend to continue for next few quarters.
SECTOR OUTLOOK
SECTOR STANCE REMARKS
IT/ITES
Positive impact would be due to currency volatility which would be offset by the Negative impact from the slower volume
growth in the EU regions
Power Utilities
Lack of fuel linkages , poor SEB health, adverse CERC guidelines have compromised the ROE’s leading to de-rating in
near term. Reform initiatives through UDAY can improve sector prospects in long run.
Cement
Cement volumes and realizations saw uptick in South region. Early signs of recovery, specifically hopes of bounce back
in North and West region due to pick up in infrastructure. Cost benefits would continue to drive earnings.
Healthcare
Regulatory risks have become more evident and frequent with FDA inspections for Pharma companies. US growth
continues to be muted for large caps due to lower approvals and regulatory issues.
SECTOR OUTLOOK
SECTOR STANCE REMARKS
Energy
Crude prices at 6 month high, though prices have corrected by 15% in past one month and substantially lower on annual
basis. Nil subsidy in FY16 for OMC’s is a positive. Trend expected to continue.
Telecom
Regulatory uncertainties have come down. However, aggressive bids for spectrum has revived fears of sub-optimal
returns on capital. Further, expected launch of R-Jio at competitive prices in Q2FY17 will have negative implications.
Metals
Lower global growth and Chinese slowdown has kept the growth subdued. Some recovery seen over past few months
with Chinese economy stabilizing. Long term prospects continue to remain weak.
REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK
REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK
The Central Government has eased FDI norms and lifted
restrictions on ticket size, Project size and stage of entry
of capital thus, paving way for virtually any project to
receive Foreign equity funds. Residential Prices have
remained stagnant across Tier I markets. All Tier I
markets have continued to witness moderate decrease in
demand with sluggish market sentiments.
With improvements in infrastructure across cities like
Chandigarh, Jaipur, Lucknow, Ahmedabad, Bhopal,
Nagpur, Patna and Cochin and quality products being
offered the end users /investors are being spoilt for
choice. The Demand drivers have increased
nuclearization, rising disposable incomes and easier
availability of credit.
RESIDENTIAL Tier I Tier II
REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK
Bangalore NCR and Hyderabad have seen strong
demand in the commercial segment and even Mumbai
has picked up in the later half of the year. The capital
values have also been on rise in major markets except in
NCR where values have remained stable. Absorption
volumes have been surpassing new completions
consistently, since H1 2014, as a result of which, the
vacancy levels in India have been dwindling.
Low unit sizes have played an important role in
maintaining the absorption levels in these markets. Lease
rentals as well as capital values continue to be stable at
their current levels in the commercial asset class.
COMMERCIAL Tier I Tier II
REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK
In Mumbai demand for space in successful malls
continued to be on the rise and categories such as F&B,
premium apparel and entertainment dominated leasing
activity. International brands were seen increasing their
footprints . Hyderabad has seen a steady growth in
demand while markets like NCR, Bangalore and Chennai
remained stagnant.
The Mall concept is new to Tier II cities and High Street
retail is still popular. Anecdotal evidence suggests that
rentals have remained stagnant in this space.
RETAIL Tier I Tier II
REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK
Fringe areas with improving connectivity to Metro cities
and other top 8 to 10 cities in India have seen interest in
purchase of Plotted / Villa developments due to lower
ticket size and better marketing by developers
/aggregators. There is an uptick in demand for
warehousing with the growth of E commerce.
Land in Tier II and III cities along upcoming / established
growth corridors have seen good percentage appreciation
due to low investment base in such areas.
LAND Tier I Tier II
COMMODITIES
GOLD
Gold has seen a smart appreciation in this calendar year. Global
uncertainties have pushed international gold prices beyond $1300.
Any risk aversion due to macro or geo-political news flows could
strengthen its prices. Near term range remains $1300-1400.
• As on 25th August, 2016 : 31,281 per 10gm
• 1 month change : 1.68%
• 1 year change : 17.16%
24000
25000
26000
27000
28000
29000
30000
31000
32000
Gold
COMMODITIES
CRUDE OIL
Crude prices have stabilized between $40- $50 per barrel.
Crude along with Gold continues be the prime indicator of
global risk appetite. It is unlikely that Crude spends more time
in the current range and a massive breakout is imminent in
either direction depending on global conditions.
• As on 25th July, 2016 : $49.25 per bbl
• 1 month change : 13.10%
• 1 year change : 17.90%
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
Crude
Currency
As on 25th
August 2015
1 Month Change 1 Year Change
USD/INR 67.09 -0.42% -1.38%
GBP/INR 88.66 0.55% 17.17%
Euro/INR 75.59 1.93% 0.39%
Yen/INR 66.84 3.50% -17.30%
USD/Euro 0.88 0.41% 0.11%
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
• The World Bank issued 500 million SDR units ($698
million) of three-year notes in China’s interbank market this
week, the first sale of debt in the International Monetary
Fund’s alternative reserve assets since the 1980s.
• The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) bragged the
Lion City remains the largest foreign exchange centre in
the Asia-Pacific region and the third largest globally after
London and New York. MAS revealed that the average
daily trading volume of Singapore’s forex market swelled
35% to US$517 billion in April 2016 from US$383 billion in
the same month three years ago.
• The country's foreign exchange reserves rose by $1.3
billion to $367.2 billion in the week to August 26 on account
of increase in foreign currency assets.
-0.42%
0.55%
1.93%
3.50%
-1.00%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
USD GBP EURO YEN
WHAT’S TRENDING
URJIT PATEL ANNOUNCED AS THE NEW RBI GOVERNOR
Profile
• Urjit Patel, 52, is presently one of the four deputy governors at the RBI. He has run the central bank's monetary policy department since 2013 and
has worked closely with the Raghuram Rajan during his stint at the central bank.
• Patel was advisor (energy & infrastructure) to The Boston Consulting Group. He is a PhD (economics) from Yale University (1990) and MPhil from
Oxford (1986). He has been a non-resident Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution since 2009.
• Between 1990 and 1995, Patel was with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), where he worked on the US, India, Bahamas and Myanmar desks.
• During 1996-97 he was on deputation from the IMF to the RBI and provided advice on development of the debt market, banking sector reforms,
pension fund reforms, real exchange rate targeting and evolution of the foreign exchange market.
• Patel has also served the government in various positions during the NDA-I regime.
• Apart from these, his other assignments include, president (business development), Reliance Industries; executive director and member of the
management committee, IDFC; member of the Integrated Energy Policy Committee of the Government of India; and member of the Board, Gujarat
State Petroleum Corporation Ltd, the RBI site said.
• Between 2000 and 2004, Patel has worked closely with several Central and state government high-level committees such as, Task Force on Direct
Taxes, Union Ministry of Finance; Advisory Committee (on Research Projects and Market Studies), Competition Commission of India; secretariat for
the Prime Minister’s Task Force on Infrastructure; Group of Ministers on Telecom Matters; Committee on Civil Aviation Reforms; Ministry of Power’s
Expert Group on State Electricity Boards and High Level Expert Group for Reviewing the Civil & Defence Services Pension System, Government of
India.
Source – www.rbi.org.in, www.wikipedia.com, www.firstpost.com
WHAT’S TRENDING
Current Monetary Policy Status
• The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has committed itself to a regime of flexible inflation targeting. Flexible inflation targeting means that a central bank
will try to keep inflation close to its formal target while being sensitive to conditions in the real economy.
• In the new monetary policy framework, persistently high inflation is deemed unacceptable because it harms economic growth over the medium term,
as is well known.
• The monetary policy will be flexible as long as inflation is within the range that has been given by the political system. Raghuram Rajan had to fight a
blazing inflationary fire when he took charge three years ago. Inflation is now within the acceptable range—though the trend in recent months is
ample cause for worry.
• The trade-off between inflation and growth was relatively easier when inflation was being brought down in the first two stages—from 10% to 8% and
then from 8% to 6%. The journey from 6% to 4% will be much more difficult. It could involve a much higher sacrifice ratio. That is why the nature of
the monetary policy response could change in the coming months—not because there is a new governor, but because the underlying economic
situation has changed. Monetary policy could be more flexible than widely assumed.
• Patel will now have to share the power to set interest rates with a new monetary policy committee (MPC).
• Patel is a reticent man—though he has actually given more speeches as deputy governor than the two speeches that have been mentioned in media
reports after he was appointed governor. How he eventually runs Indian monetary policy will depend on the state of the underlying economy, but it is
important to remember that the recent victories in the long battle against high inflation will give him space to be flexible. There is a reason it is called
flexible inflation targeting.
Source – www.livemint.com
DISCLAIMER
Karvy Investment Advisory Services Limited [KIASL] is a SEBI registered Investment Advisor and provides advisory services. The information in this newsletter has been prepared by KIASL based on information obtained from
public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed and the same are subject to change without any notice. This newsletter and
information herein is solely for informational purpose and may not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe to the securities mentioned. The securities discussed and opinions
expressed in this newsletter may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient as the same may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on
their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. The information given in this document is for guidance only. Final investment decisions have to be made by the recipients themselves after
independent evaluation of the investment risk. Recipients are advised to consult their respective tax advisers to understand the specific tax incidence applicable to them. Affiliates of KIASL may from time to time, be engaged in
any other transaction involving such securities/commodities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the securities/commodities discussed herein or have other potential conflict of interest with
respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. Wherever products offered by the Karvy Group entities may be recommended, it is to be noted that KIASL does not provide execution services and further
KIASL does not receive any monetary or non monetary benefit as regards such recommendations made. This newsletter and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may
not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of KIASL. Past performance is not necessarily a guide
to future performance. KIASL and its Group companies or any person connected with it accepts no liability whatsoever for the content of this newsletter, or for the consequences of any actions taken on the basis of the information
provided therein or for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this newsletter.
Nothing in this newsletter constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any of the investment mentioned is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The information given in this
document on tax is for guidance only, and should not be construed as tax advice. Investors are advised to consult their respective tax advisers to understand the specific tax incidence applicable to them. While we would
endeavor to update the information herein on reasonable basis, KIASL , its associated companies, their directors and employees (“Karvy Group”) are under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may
be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent KIASL from doing so. KIASL will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this newsletter. The value and return of investment may vary because of
changes in interest rates or any other reason. Karvy Group may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this newsletter. Recipients are advised to see
the offer documents provided by the Issuers/ Product Providers to understand the risks associated before making investments in the products mentioned. Recipients are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not
predictions and may be subject to change without notice. KIASL operates from within India and is subject to Indian regulations. This newsletter is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a
citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject KIASL and affiliates to any
registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. Certain category of investors in certain jurisdictions may or may not be eligible to invest in securities mentioned in the newsletter. Persons in whose possession this
document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction. Entities of the Karvy Group provide execution services in the capacity of being stock broker, depository participant, portfolio managers
and the like. Recipients may choose to execute their transactions through entities of the Karvy group and pay applicable charge for the same.
Registered office Address: Karvy Investment Advisory Services Limited, ‘Karvy House’, 46, Avenue 4, Street No. 1, Banjara Hills, Hyderabad – 500034
SEBI Registration No: INA200001959

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Advice for the wise karvy private wealth report 2016

  • 1. ADVICE FOR THE WISE September 2016
  • 2. CONTENTS • From The CEO’s Desk • Did You Know? • Domestic Equity Outlook • Domestic Debt Outlook • Domestic Debt Strategy • Global Equity Outlook • Global Economy Update • Global Debt Outlook • Sector Outlook • Real Estate Outlook • Commodities • Foreign Exchange • What’s Trending. • Disclaimer
  • 3. FROM THE CEO’s DESK Dear Investors, Ending months of speculation, the government finally appointed Dr. Urjit Patel as the next RBI Governor, who is set to take over the helm of affairs at the Central Bank on 4th September. Equity markets, investors and the corporate world in general have given a big thumbs up to this announcement as they anticipate a continuation of the policy stance implemented by Dr. Raghuram Rajan. Under Dr. Patel, the RBI is expected to continue its focus on Inflation targeting, speedy recovery of the stressed assets of public sector banks and improvement of credit growth and the liquidity framework within the country. As a parting gift, Dr. Rajan announced a slew of measures aimed at boosting the corporate bond market, broadening the forex market and permitting banks to issue masala bonds in overseas markets. The RBI will move to cap the exposure of banks to large borrowers, while at the same time permit corporates to issue bonds to raise funding. This will prevent companies from being overly dependent on banks for their funding and permit regulated investors (like insurance companies) to invest in bonds issued by a wider range of companies. Dr. Rajan indicated that the RBI will eventually start accepting corporate bonds as collateral at its liquidity adjustment facility window, which essentially means that banks would be able to use corporate bonds as security to borrow from the RBI. Separately, the central bank will allow banks to raise rupee resources through masala bonds as well as give foreign investors direct access to the bond trading platforms. The impact of these reforms is likely to be far-reaching.
  • 4. Meanwhile, as global liquidity flows sobered down, the Indian equity markets too tempered their frenetic pace. Nonetheless, the Nifty managed to touch a 16-month high of 8800. Given the negative interest rate scenario in Japan and Europe, coupled with the volatility seen after the Brexit referendum, the US Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates in its forthcoming meeting in September. Going ahead, we expect our Indian markets to continue doing well and we urge investors to use every dip as a buying opportunity. As we enter into the festive season, we expect the domestic consumption-driven stocks and sectors to take the markets to higher levels. On a separate note, the performance of our women athletes at the Rio Olympics needs to be truly lauded. The dedication, enthusiasm and commitment shown by our triumvirate of Sindhu, Sakshi and Dipa embody the never-given-in spirit of true winners. The nation is proud of them! Let me end this note by wishing you all a Happy Ganesh Chaturthi! May Lord Ganesha shower his blessings on you and your families!
  • 5. DID YOU KNOW Argentina has highest interest rates in the world 20% on one-year time deposit. . As a economy China lifted more people out of poverty than any other country. United States has the largest gold Reserve more than 8,000 metric tons of gold followed by Germany gold reserves of approximately 3,378.2 metric tons
  • 7. As on 25th August 2016 1 Month Change 1 Year Change Equity Markets BSE Sensex 27,835 -0.50% 8.25% CNX Nifty 8,592 0.02% 10.27% BSE Mid Cap 12,977 4.48% 23.87% BSE Small Cap 12,501 2.90% 16.71% 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 S & P BSE Sensex CNX Nifty BSE Midcap BSE Smallcap Emerging markets are being driven by global liquidity in search of yields. While US has reiterated its resolve to increase interest rates, Japan and the EU are engaged in a race to the bottom driving monetary policy to uncharted territories. Investors are debating the limits of monetary policy and looking forward to a more creative use of fiscal policy by the developed economies. Periodic spurts in global yields have failed to dampen the enthusiasm of bond bulls. Although economic fundamentals in India are progressively getting better, the next few months will not be about Indian fundamentals. Global developments would be the key driver of sentiments and stock prices.
  • 8. DOMESTIC EQUITY OUTLOOK GOVERNMENT POLICY The much awaited GST bill has been finally passed by both houses of Parliament and is likely to be ratified by half the Indian state legislatures paving the way for its rollout for FY17-18. Railway budget is likely to be subsumed in the Union budget for FY17-18 marking a historic departure from convention.
  • 9. WHOLESALE PRICE INDEX • India's wholesale prices index continued in positive territory at 3.55% for July, 2016 as compared to 1.62% for the month of June. • Food articles inflation increased in the month of June by 11.82%. Vegetables increased by 28.05%. Inflation in the fuel and power segment was -1.0%, while that of manufactured products it was 1.82% in June. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX • CPI for the month of June remained flat at 5.77% as compared to 5.76% in May. • Year-on-year, cost of food and beverages rose 7.38 percent (7.2 percent in May). • The food prices rose by 7.79% compared to downwardly revised 7.47% in the previous month. Source – Tradingeconomics -6.00% -4.00% -2.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 WPI CPI
  • 10. IIP • Industrial output in India rose by 2,1 percent year-on-year in june of 2016, against upwardly revised 1.1% in May 2016. • Manufacturing rose 0.9%, as against 0.6% in May. Meanwhile, the mining sector output increased by 4.7% in May 2016. GDP • India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the first quarter of the current financial year slowed down to 7.1% versus 7.9% for the previous quarter. • Private consumption growth eased to 6.7 percent from 8.3 percent in the previous quarter while government spending jumped 18.8 percent, accelerating from a 2.9 percent growth in Q1. Gross fixed capital formation shrank at a faster 3.1 percent, following a 1.9 percent contraction in the previous period. Source – Tradingeconomics -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% IIP 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 GDP
  • 11. DOMESTIC DEBT OUTLOOK  The yields on 10 Yr G sec closed at 7.25% which is 21 bps lower than the last months close of 7.43%  The daily turnover for the notes on the Reserve Bank of India’s dealing platform reached an unprecedented 1.43 trillion rupees ($21.4 billion) on 28th July. At 921 billion rupees, the daily average value of securities traded for the month of July was also an all-time high, and more than double the amount for the first six months of 2016, as benchmark 10-year bonds capped their best month since May 2013. As on 25th August 2016 1 Month Change 1 Year Change Debt Markets 10-Yr G-Sec- Yield 7.12 (13bps) (67bps) Fixed Deposit 7.25 0bps (75bps) Source – Reuters 0 50 100 150 200 250 AAA AA+ AA AA- A+ A A- BBB+ Corporate Bond Spreads 5 Years 10 Years 15 Years 6.80 7.00 7.20 7.40 7.60 7.80 8.00 8.20 8.40 8.60 8.80 G-Sec 10 YR Gsec Yield 5 YR Gsec Yield 15 YR Gsec Yield
  • 12. DOMESTIC DEBT STRATEGY SHORT TERM DEBT Investors who have a low appetite for interest rate volatility and seeking accrual returns with moderate duration can look at short term debt funds with the time horizon of 1 year to 2 years. Even though, most of the short term fund’s YTMs have fallen to sub-8%, our recommended short term debt funds still have high YTMs (8%-10%) providing interesting investment opportunities. CORPORATE BOND FUNDS The macro economic outlook along with corporate profitability seems to be improving. We remain positive on the credit outlook and look for opportunities in the credit space. The corporate bond market segment continues to be attractive over the medium to long term. The yields are at elevated levels and interest rate outlook seems favourable. The current scenario offers the potential opportunity to lock in higher accruals, with the expectation that these levels of yields may not sustain over the short to medium term. With credit easing, there are chances that the companies’ rating will be upgraded that would further cause a rally in bonds, which in turn will benefit corporate bond funds. DYNAMIC BOND FUNDS As RBI has reduced the key policy rates, dynamic bond funds have benefited a lot as most of them have a mix of gilt and long term bonds in their portfolio. Going ahead, we expect RBI to further reduce key policy rates only after studying the macro-economic data such as inflation, movement in crude oil prices and so on. Investors who don’t want to time the market and who can depend on fund managers to take view on interest rates can look at dynamic bond funds. LONG TERM DEBT FUNDS With the likelihood of another rate cut being minimal and the uncertainty with regard to the monsoon and global commodity prices, particularly crude oil, a rally in G-Sec yields is unlikely. Investors should start exiting their investments in Gilt Funds and Long Term Income Funds and go for accrual based short term funds.
  • 14. As on 25th August 2016 1 Month Change 1 Year Change Equity Markets MSCI World 1727 1.25% 6.86% Hang Seng 22814 3.10% 8.23% S&P 500 2172 0.15% 11.95% Nikkei 16555 1.06% -9.91% GLOBAL INDICES 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 MSCI World Hang Seng S&P 500 Nikkei
  • 15. GLOBAL EQUITY OUTLOOK US is likely to increase interest rates in the September policy marking a decisive turn in the trajectory of global interest rates and a benign liquidity environment.
  • 16. GLOBAL ECONOMY UPDATE UNITED STATES  U.S. to urge G20 to boost economies, pay attention to angry citizens U.S. President Barack Obama will call on leaders from the Group of 20 to use fiscal policy and other tools to boost economic growth while reducing excess capacity at steel factories.  U.S. economic growth was slightly more tepid than initially thought in the second quarter as businesses aggressively ran down inventories, offsetting a spurt in consumer spending. Gross domestic product expanded at a 1.1 percent annual rate. That was modestly down from the 1.2 percent rate it reported last month and also reflected more imports than previously estimated as well as weak government spending. JAPAN  Japanese manufacturing activity showed signs of steadying in August as output rose for the first time in six months, in a tentative sign that the economy may be recovering from a slump earlier this year. The IHS Markit/Nikkei Japan Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) edged up to 49.6 in August from a final 49.3 in July on a seasonally adjusted basis.  Japanese manufacturers' mood soured in August to its lowest since 2013 when the central bank embarked on aggressive monetary easing. According to the Reuters poll, reflecting the pain caused by a rising yen and highlighting the huge task facing policymakers to generate growth. Source – Reuters
  • 17. GLOBAL ECONOMY UPDATE EUROPE  Higher exports, state spending propel German growth Solid economic growth generated a record budget surplus for Germany in the first half of this year, stoking a debate within government about whether the country should use its spare revenue to cut taxes or increase spending.  London firms losing faith in quick-fix access to EU after Brexit Big financial groups in London are losing faith in a quick fix to get access to the European Union after Britain leaves the bloc and are instead drawing up contingency plans to avoid becoming hostage to Brussels politics. EMERGING ECONOMIES  Indian factory activity expanded at its fastest pace since mid-2015 in August, helped by surging new orders, while only modest price increases should give the central bank scope to ease policy further, ndian annual economic growth slowed in the April-June quarter to 7.1 percent, short of expectations for 7.6 percent according Reuters poll.  Activity in China's manufacturing sector unexpectedly expanded in August, though growth was modest. The official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 50.4 in August, compared with the previous month's 49.9 and above the 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction on a monthly basis.. Source – Reuters
  • 18. GLOBAL DEBT OUTLOOK  The Russian government is hoping to tap the international capital markets again this year and could raise another $1.25bn from a Eurobond issue.  Saudi Arabia will probably push ahead with the sale of at least $10 billion of bonds even if the U.S. raises interest rates next month, spurred on by demand for emerging-market assets that may leave enough room for other Gulf states to follow..  Qatar National Bank is planning to tap the international bond market, The bank is set to issue a 5-year bond of at least $500m, adding to what has already been a record year of issuance for the group. Ratings Country 10 Yr G-Sec Yield 1 Month Change AAA Germany -0.06% 4 bps Hong Kong 0.97% 3 bps Sweden 0.09% (2 bps) Switzerland -0.46% 10 bps AA+ USA 1.59% 10 bps AA- China 2.82% 3 bps Japan -0.05% 9 bps Source – Reuters
  • 20. SECTOR OUTLOOK SECTOR STANCE REMARKS Automobiles Passenger vehicles and CVs will continue to outperform two-wheeler segment. Tractors to benefit on account of base effect and normal monsoons. Auto-ancillaries expected to do well due to revival of demand and stable global markets. FMCG We prefer “discretionary consumption” theme within FMCG. Key beneficiaries such as durables and branded garments, as the growth in this segment will be disproportionately higher vis-à-vis the increase in disposable incomes. A bounce in raw materials could put pressure on margins. Expect uptick in volumes post monsoons. E&C Order inflows expected to improve as spending and capital expenditure likely to move up on economic recovery. Moreover, sluggish execution and weak macros create a challenging environment. BFSI Private sector banks continue to deliver earnings in line with expectations. However, PSBs delivering poor numbers on higher slippages and lower credit growth. We expect this trend to continue for next few quarters.
  • 21. SECTOR OUTLOOK SECTOR STANCE REMARKS IT/ITES Positive impact would be due to currency volatility which would be offset by the Negative impact from the slower volume growth in the EU regions Power Utilities Lack of fuel linkages , poor SEB health, adverse CERC guidelines have compromised the ROE’s leading to de-rating in near term. Reform initiatives through UDAY can improve sector prospects in long run. Cement Cement volumes and realizations saw uptick in South region. Early signs of recovery, specifically hopes of bounce back in North and West region due to pick up in infrastructure. Cost benefits would continue to drive earnings. Healthcare Regulatory risks have become more evident and frequent with FDA inspections for Pharma companies. US growth continues to be muted for large caps due to lower approvals and regulatory issues.
  • 22. SECTOR OUTLOOK SECTOR STANCE REMARKS Energy Crude prices at 6 month high, though prices have corrected by 15% in past one month and substantially lower on annual basis. Nil subsidy in FY16 for OMC’s is a positive. Trend expected to continue. Telecom Regulatory uncertainties have come down. However, aggressive bids for spectrum has revived fears of sub-optimal returns on capital. Further, expected launch of R-Jio at competitive prices in Q2FY17 will have negative implications. Metals Lower global growth and Chinese slowdown has kept the growth subdued. Some recovery seen over past few months with Chinese economy stabilizing. Long term prospects continue to remain weak.
  • 24. REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK The Central Government has eased FDI norms and lifted restrictions on ticket size, Project size and stage of entry of capital thus, paving way for virtually any project to receive Foreign equity funds. Residential Prices have remained stagnant across Tier I markets. All Tier I markets have continued to witness moderate decrease in demand with sluggish market sentiments. With improvements in infrastructure across cities like Chandigarh, Jaipur, Lucknow, Ahmedabad, Bhopal, Nagpur, Patna and Cochin and quality products being offered the end users /investors are being spoilt for choice. The Demand drivers have increased nuclearization, rising disposable incomes and easier availability of credit. RESIDENTIAL Tier I Tier II
  • 25. REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK Bangalore NCR and Hyderabad have seen strong demand in the commercial segment and even Mumbai has picked up in the later half of the year. The capital values have also been on rise in major markets except in NCR where values have remained stable. Absorption volumes have been surpassing new completions consistently, since H1 2014, as a result of which, the vacancy levels in India have been dwindling. Low unit sizes have played an important role in maintaining the absorption levels in these markets. Lease rentals as well as capital values continue to be stable at their current levels in the commercial asset class. COMMERCIAL Tier I Tier II
  • 26. REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK In Mumbai demand for space in successful malls continued to be on the rise and categories such as F&B, premium apparel and entertainment dominated leasing activity. International brands were seen increasing their footprints . Hyderabad has seen a steady growth in demand while markets like NCR, Bangalore and Chennai remained stagnant. The Mall concept is new to Tier II cities and High Street retail is still popular. Anecdotal evidence suggests that rentals have remained stagnant in this space. RETAIL Tier I Tier II
  • 27. REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK Fringe areas with improving connectivity to Metro cities and other top 8 to 10 cities in India have seen interest in purchase of Plotted / Villa developments due to lower ticket size and better marketing by developers /aggregators. There is an uptick in demand for warehousing with the growth of E commerce. Land in Tier II and III cities along upcoming / established growth corridors have seen good percentage appreciation due to low investment base in such areas. LAND Tier I Tier II
  • 28. COMMODITIES GOLD Gold has seen a smart appreciation in this calendar year. Global uncertainties have pushed international gold prices beyond $1300. Any risk aversion due to macro or geo-political news flows could strengthen its prices. Near term range remains $1300-1400. • As on 25th August, 2016 : 31,281 per 10gm • 1 month change : 1.68% • 1 year change : 17.16% 24000 25000 26000 27000 28000 29000 30000 31000 32000 Gold
  • 29. COMMODITIES CRUDE OIL Crude prices have stabilized between $40- $50 per barrel. Crude along with Gold continues be the prime indicator of global risk appetite. It is unlikely that Crude spends more time in the current range and a massive breakout is imminent in either direction depending on global conditions. • As on 25th July, 2016 : $49.25 per bbl • 1 month change : 13.10% • 1 year change : 17.90% 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 Crude
  • 30. Currency As on 25th August 2015 1 Month Change 1 Year Change USD/INR 67.09 -0.42% -1.38% GBP/INR 88.66 0.55% 17.17% Euro/INR 75.59 1.93% 0.39% Yen/INR 66.84 3.50% -17.30% USD/Euro 0.88 0.41% 0.11% FOREIGN EXCHANGE • The World Bank issued 500 million SDR units ($698 million) of three-year notes in China’s interbank market this week, the first sale of debt in the International Monetary Fund’s alternative reserve assets since the 1980s. • The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) bragged the Lion City remains the largest foreign exchange centre in the Asia-Pacific region and the third largest globally after London and New York. MAS revealed that the average daily trading volume of Singapore’s forex market swelled 35% to US$517 billion in April 2016 from US$383 billion in the same month three years ago. • The country's foreign exchange reserves rose by $1.3 billion to $367.2 billion in the week to August 26 on account of increase in foreign currency assets. -0.42% 0.55% 1.93% 3.50% -1.00% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% USD GBP EURO YEN
  • 31. WHAT’S TRENDING URJIT PATEL ANNOUNCED AS THE NEW RBI GOVERNOR Profile • Urjit Patel, 52, is presently one of the four deputy governors at the RBI. He has run the central bank's monetary policy department since 2013 and has worked closely with the Raghuram Rajan during his stint at the central bank. • Patel was advisor (energy & infrastructure) to The Boston Consulting Group. He is a PhD (economics) from Yale University (1990) and MPhil from Oxford (1986). He has been a non-resident Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution since 2009. • Between 1990 and 1995, Patel was with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), where he worked on the US, India, Bahamas and Myanmar desks. • During 1996-97 he was on deputation from the IMF to the RBI and provided advice on development of the debt market, banking sector reforms, pension fund reforms, real exchange rate targeting and evolution of the foreign exchange market. • Patel has also served the government in various positions during the NDA-I regime. • Apart from these, his other assignments include, president (business development), Reliance Industries; executive director and member of the management committee, IDFC; member of the Integrated Energy Policy Committee of the Government of India; and member of the Board, Gujarat State Petroleum Corporation Ltd, the RBI site said. • Between 2000 and 2004, Patel has worked closely with several Central and state government high-level committees such as, Task Force on Direct Taxes, Union Ministry of Finance; Advisory Committee (on Research Projects and Market Studies), Competition Commission of India; secretariat for the Prime Minister’s Task Force on Infrastructure; Group of Ministers on Telecom Matters; Committee on Civil Aviation Reforms; Ministry of Power’s Expert Group on State Electricity Boards and High Level Expert Group for Reviewing the Civil & Defence Services Pension System, Government of India. Source – www.rbi.org.in, www.wikipedia.com, www.firstpost.com
  • 32. WHAT’S TRENDING Current Monetary Policy Status • The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has committed itself to a regime of flexible inflation targeting. Flexible inflation targeting means that a central bank will try to keep inflation close to its formal target while being sensitive to conditions in the real economy. • In the new monetary policy framework, persistently high inflation is deemed unacceptable because it harms economic growth over the medium term, as is well known. • The monetary policy will be flexible as long as inflation is within the range that has been given by the political system. Raghuram Rajan had to fight a blazing inflationary fire when he took charge three years ago. Inflation is now within the acceptable range—though the trend in recent months is ample cause for worry. • The trade-off between inflation and growth was relatively easier when inflation was being brought down in the first two stages—from 10% to 8% and then from 8% to 6%. The journey from 6% to 4% will be much more difficult. It could involve a much higher sacrifice ratio. That is why the nature of the monetary policy response could change in the coming months—not because there is a new governor, but because the underlying economic situation has changed. Monetary policy could be more flexible than widely assumed. • Patel will now have to share the power to set interest rates with a new monetary policy committee (MPC). • Patel is a reticent man—though he has actually given more speeches as deputy governor than the two speeches that have been mentioned in media reports after he was appointed governor. How he eventually runs Indian monetary policy will depend on the state of the underlying economy, but it is important to remember that the recent victories in the long battle against high inflation will give him space to be flexible. There is a reason it is called flexible inflation targeting. Source – www.livemint.com
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