Advice for the Wise is a Karvy Private Wealth report of November 2016. This report is provided by Karvy wealth, this report will help you understand key investment components and thus will help you to take good decision in investment choices. For more information about this presentation log on to our website http://karvywealth.com
The document provides an outlook on global debt markets in November 2016. It notes that global bond yields are rising rapidly as central banks move away from easy monetary policies. The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to a 5-month high near 1.87% on expectations of a December rate hike by the US Federal Reserve. German and UK bond yields also increased. Global bond markets experienced a significant selloff due to expectations of higher US rates and uncertainty around the ECB's bond purchase program.
The document provides an analysis of recent events affecting global markets. It discusses two major events: 1) US presidential elections resulting in a victory for Donald Trump and 2) India's demonetization of Rs. 500 and Rs. 1000 currency notes. It summarizes the short-term negative impacts these events will have on certain sectors in India as well as longer-term positive impacts expected, especially in banking, infrastructure, and rate-sensitive sectors. Market indices are expected to remain cautious in the near-term but the analysis maintains a long-term bullish outlook for Indian markets.
- Markets have shown a flattish trend for the past few weeks due to mixed global news and lack of interesting domestic news. Quarterly earnings will be a key focus.
- The US Fed minutes showed many members supported a rate hike while others wanted rates kept steady. Globally, some nations want softer rates while developed nations prefer harder rates.
- In India, quarterly earnings just began and will be important, with IT companies continuing to disappoint so far. Regional cement players may report better numbers than large caps with nationwide reach. Private banks are expected to report strong results.
The document provides an equity market outlook and analysis for the period of Diwali to Diwali (October 2016 to October 2017). It notes that large caps underperformed with returns of 5-6% last year while midcaps saw stronger returns of 19-20%. For the current year, it expects lower double digit returns for large caps and 15-20% returns for mid and small caps. It recommends focusing on sectors with good private demand like financials, automobiles, and consumer durables. Large caps are seen as providing stability but lower returns compared to midcaps where returns of 15% are expected over the next year for those with a higher risk appetite and 2-3 year investment horizon.
- Last week, global equity markets declined sharply due to one bad trading day that rattled investors who had become complacent about continuously rising prices. However, market corrections of 6-8% are normal and investors should focus on investing in good quality stocks during declines rather than withdrawing.
- Concerns remain about instability in Europe's banking system, uncertainty around US interest rates after the election, and potential for Chinese currency devaluation. Wholesale inflation slowed in India while the government may increase public spending to spur growth.
- Key stock indices declined over the past week with the Sensex falling 1.46% while most sectors also ended lower with metals and power dropping the most.
The document provides an overview and outlook across various asset classes and sectors in India and globally. Some key points:
- Domestic equity markets have seen modest gains of around 8.5% year-to-date despite recent volatility due to political tensions. Bond yields have fallen in India on expectations of further rate cuts.
- Global central banks like the Fed and ECB appear less accommodative but the US economy remains resilient. Growth has slowed in Japan and parts of Europe.
- Automobiles, banks, FMCG and infrastructure sectors are expected to perform well in India, while cement may see a recovery. Select domestic sectors and stocks still appear attractive relative to other emerging markets.
- The document provides an economic and market summary for the week of November 14-18, 2016. It discusses developments in global markets, the Indian economy and stock market, and provides commentary on sectors and asset classes.
- Key points include the expectation of US Federal rate hikes in December, the impact of India's demonetization on various industries, and an outlook that Indian stock markets will see further declines in the short-term but provide buying opportunities. Debt markets are also seen as favorable due to expected interest rate cuts.
Dear Investors,
The month of July has seen the heavens literally open their doors and shower their blessings on us. After a late start in June, the monsoon picked up
smartly and the country as a whole received abundant rainfall, bringing cheer to one and all and definitely a sense of relief. The same good cheer
seems to have percolated to the global equity markets as well. Having brushed off the Brexit issue, markets have continued their upward move
relentlessly through the month of July. The US benchmark index, the S&P 500 hit a new lifetime high earlier in the month on the back of good jobs
data and an optimistic view of growth in the US economy. Not wanting to be left out in any way, the Nifty set a new 52-week high and the Sensex
scaled 28,000.
The quarterly results have been a mixed bag so far. While there have been more hits than misses, the IT sector as a whole and some pharma
companies have been the major pockets of underperformance. Most of the private sector retail banks and NBFCs have shown a stellar performance,
while growth in public sector banks was stagnant due to liquidity and NPA issues. In the consumer space, lower costs have added to the profits of
several companies, but revenue growth and volume growth were disappointing. There is hope that these will see a significant pick up in the second
half of the financial year once the benefits of the 7th Pay Commission and a good monsoon kick in.
The document provides an outlook on global debt markets in November 2016. It notes that global bond yields are rising rapidly as central banks move away from easy monetary policies. The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to a 5-month high near 1.87% on expectations of a December rate hike by the US Federal Reserve. German and UK bond yields also increased. Global bond markets experienced a significant selloff due to expectations of higher US rates and uncertainty around the ECB's bond purchase program.
The document provides an analysis of recent events affecting global markets. It discusses two major events: 1) US presidential elections resulting in a victory for Donald Trump and 2) India's demonetization of Rs. 500 and Rs. 1000 currency notes. It summarizes the short-term negative impacts these events will have on certain sectors in India as well as longer-term positive impacts expected, especially in banking, infrastructure, and rate-sensitive sectors. Market indices are expected to remain cautious in the near-term but the analysis maintains a long-term bullish outlook for Indian markets.
- Markets have shown a flattish trend for the past few weeks due to mixed global news and lack of interesting domestic news. Quarterly earnings will be a key focus.
- The US Fed minutes showed many members supported a rate hike while others wanted rates kept steady. Globally, some nations want softer rates while developed nations prefer harder rates.
- In India, quarterly earnings just began and will be important, with IT companies continuing to disappoint so far. Regional cement players may report better numbers than large caps with nationwide reach. Private banks are expected to report strong results.
The document provides an equity market outlook and analysis for the period of Diwali to Diwali (October 2016 to October 2017). It notes that large caps underperformed with returns of 5-6% last year while midcaps saw stronger returns of 19-20%. For the current year, it expects lower double digit returns for large caps and 15-20% returns for mid and small caps. It recommends focusing on sectors with good private demand like financials, automobiles, and consumer durables. Large caps are seen as providing stability but lower returns compared to midcaps where returns of 15% are expected over the next year for those with a higher risk appetite and 2-3 year investment horizon.
- Last week, global equity markets declined sharply due to one bad trading day that rattled investors who had become complacent about continuously rising prices. However, market corrections of 6-8% are normal and investors should focus on investing in good quality stocks during declines rather than withdrawing.
- Concerns remain about instability in Europe's banking system, uncertainty around US interest rates after the election, and potential for Chinese currency devaluation. Wholesale inflation slowed in India while the government may increase public spending to spur growth.
- Key stock indices declined over the past week with the Sensex falling 1.46% while most sectors also ended lower with metals and power dropping the most.
The document provides an overview and outlook across various asset classes and sectors in India and globally. Some key points:
- Domestic equity markets have seen modest gains of around 8.5% year-to-date despite recent volatility due to political tensions. Bond yields have fallen in India on expectations of further rate cuts.
- Global central banks like the Fed and ECB appear less accommodative but the US economy remains resilient. Growth has slowed in Japan and parts of Europe.
- Automobiles, banks, FMCG and infrastructure sectors are expected to perform well in India, while cement may see a recovery. Select domestic sectors and stocks still appear attractive relative to other emerging markets.
- The document provides an economic and market summary for the week of November 14-18, 2016. It discusses developments in global markets, the Indian economy and stock market, and provides commentary on sectors and asset classes.
- Key points include the expectation of US Federal rate hikes in December, the impact of India's demonetization on various industries, and an outlook that Indian stock markets will see further declines in the short-term but provide buying opportunities. Debt markets are also seen as favorable due to expected interest rate cuts.
Dear Investors,
The month of July has seen the heavens literally open their doors and shower their blessings on us. After a late start in June, the monsoon picked up
smartly and the country as a whole received abundant rainfall, bringing cheer to one and all and definitely a sense of relief. The same good cheer
seems to have percolated to the global equity markets as well. Having brushed off the Brexit issue, markets have continued their upward move
relentlessly through the month of July. The US benchmark index, the S&P 500 hit a new lifetime high earlier in the month on the back of good jobs
data and an optimistic view of growth in the US economy. Not wanting to be left out in any way, the Nifty set a new 52-week high and the Sensex
scaled 28,000.
The quarterly results have been a mixed bag so far. While there have been more hits than misses, the IT sector as a whole and some pharma
companies have been the major pockets of underperformance. Most of the private sector retail banks and NBFCs have shown a stellar performance,
while growth in public sector banks was stagnant due to liquidity and NPA issues. In the consumer space, lower costs have added to the profits of
several companies, but revenue growth and volume growth were disappointing. There is hope that these will see a significant pick up in the second
half of the financial year once the benefits of the 7th Pay Commission and a good monsoon kick in.
The document summarizes recent news and developments in global markets and the Indian economy from October 31 - November 4, 2016. It discusses the impact of the FBI announcement regarding Hillary Clinton's emails on US and global markets. It also covers the upcoming US presidential election and its potential effects. Domestically, it discusses recent inflation data, bank earnings, and the progress of GST implementation in India. Globally, it mentions recent economic data and central bank decisions in the US, UK, Eurozone, and China.
- Core inflation in India declined to 4.5% in June from 4.7% previously, which may support a 25 basis point rate cut by the RBI in August. Industrial growth also turned positive in April after contracting previously.
- Financial results from companies so far have been better than expected, though IT sector disappointed due to Brexit. Global markets are focused on upcoming earnings season in India.
- The Bank of England is expected to cut rates to a record low of 0.25% to cushion the UK economy from Brexit shock. China's land and wage growth slowed in the first half of 2016 due to overcapacity issues.
- Yields on bonds have remained at historically low levels for decades, exposing markets to volatility and posing problems for pension funds that rely on stable returns from bonds.
- Pension funds facing low yields may need to increase contributions from workers and governments or invest in riskier assets like equities to meet liabilities. This could have social ramifications.
- Similarly, low yields make it difficult for insurance companies to meet liabilities through low-risk investments, potentially leading to higher premiums.
The document provides an economic and market summary for the week of July 18-22, 2016. Key points include:
- Momentum stocks should be exited and defensive investments pursued as markets may be volatile.
- The IMF lowered India's GDP growth forecast to 7.4% for the current fiscal year.
- Greece relaxed some capital controls as bailout reforms progress and banking confidence returns.
- Central banks will remain cautious on policy moves pending clarity on Brexit's economic impacts.
Global bond yields are at historical lows which mean global bond prices have rallied across developed markets while S&P 500 is close to its historical high. This by itself is a dichotomy as bond prices and equity prices are not expected to rally together at the same point. Either of the two has to be true.
•Bond prices and yields are inversely related therefore, bond prices rally when yields and interest rates are expected to be low. Interest rates are expected to be low because growth prospects are low. This would entail the central banks to cut rates and because the demand for credits will be low due to the low growth prospects, the yields are expected to be low which explains the rally in bond prices. Considering this, the rally in the equity markets is not possible as there is no expectation for growth. This is the dichotomy that the global world is at particularly in the developed markets. In the light of the current scenario, either of the two has to give in i.e. either bond prices correct leading to normalcy in yields or equity markets give in.
Introduction of GST in the Rajya Sabha has significance because it could have been passed in the Lok Sabha also. However, Rajya Sabha is where the government does not have majority and since it’s a constitutional amendment that requires two thirds majority, convincing all the parties is a key milestone and to that extent, introduction and subsequent passage of the bill in the Rajya Sabha will be important.
•Earnings Data for 8 core industries including mining, infrastructure and electricity was received which indicated a growth by 5.2% which augers well. However, one needs to see if this is a onetime occurrence or will it continue. Also, since rainfall was moderate, by the end of July, rural consumption is expected to be strong. To that extent, GDP is likely to grow anywhere between 7.5-8% this year. The government’s earlier projections in the budget carry an upward bias.
This document provides a weekly summary of global and domestic economic news and market performance for the week of August 8-12, 2016. Some key points:
- India's wholesale and consumer price inflation increased in July driven by higher food prices. Industrial production growth slowed in the Eurozone and China.
- US retail sales were flat in July and the budget deficit declined, while China's economic growth slowed with the weakest investment growth in over 15 years.
- The Indian stock market ended the week slightly lower, with the Sensex falling 0.11%. Most sectoral indices also declined over the week except for banking. Commodity prices were mixed with gold falling slightly while crude oil rose.
This document provides a weekly summary of economic, market, and other news from August 16-19, 2016. Some key points:
- India's CPI inflation rose above 6% in July, exceeding the central bank's tolerance limit and raising expectations of further rate hikes.
- Global government bond yields increased modestly, with the US 10-year yield rising to 1.6%, while oil prices fell on doubts that upcoming producer talks would reduce oversupply.
- Domestically, strong monsoon rains are expected to boost agricultural growth and the overall economy. Internationally, China's exports declined in 2016 and are projected to fall further due to economic pressures.
This document provides an overview and outlook across various sectors in India and globally. It discusses domestic and global economic factors, equity and debt market performance, sector-specific views, and other relevant topics. Key points include a positive outlook for domestic consumption sectors due to the festive season, signs of recovery in the Indian manufacturing sector, and expectations that global central banks will continue accommodative monetary policies.
The document provides a weekly summary of domestic and global economic news from August 29th to September 2nd, 2016.
Domestically, Indian factory activity expanded at its fastest pace since mid-2015 in August. However, India's annual economic growth slowed to 7.1% in the second quarter, below expectations. Globally, British manufacturing rebounded in August after Brexit. US job growth slowed in August, likely putting off a Federal Reserve rate hike. China and the US committed to refrain from competitive currency devaluations. Major stock indices rose around 1-3% over the week.
The document provides an overview of global and domestic markets and economic indicators for the week of September 5-9, 2016. Key points include:
- There was a global market correction on Friday due to falling bond prices, though this does not necessarily mean the dislocation in markets has been corrected.
- Indian consumer inflation is expected to have eased in August but may still be too high for an interest rate cut in September. Tax receipts rose robustly in August.
- Economic data from major economies like Germany, the US, and China suggests slowing growth, while long-term debt issuance in Europe may increase risks.
- Indian indices fell for the week while commodities like crude oil rose and the rupee
- The equity markets in India traded in a narrow range over the past week and are expected to remain range-bound in the coming weeks. Key economic data like GDP and core sector growth were in line with expectations.
- In the US, recent data points to continued moderate economic growth and makes the case for an interest rate hike in September. The impact of rate hikes is expected to be greater on developed markets than emerging markets like India.
- Macroeconomic indicators from China suggested efforts to reduce corporate financing costs and tax burdens to boost the economy, while the central bank took measures to inject liquidity into markets.
Dear Investors,
Billionaire investor Wilbur Ross said "Ultimately, I think it will be the world's most expensive divorce. But like most divorces, it's probably going to take a lot longer than it should." The Brexit vote to leave the European Union sent shock waves across the globe. Though the pre-poll surveys had indicated a close call, it was largely expected that sanity would prevail on referendum day and the British populace would vote to Remain. The ramifications of an eventual Brexit are likely to be long-drawn and far-reaching. Apart from the impact it has had on the currency markets, there is an imminent danger of other countries wanting to follow suit. This may lead to the ultimate breakdown of the EU, causing geo-political chaos with the danger of recession.
The equity markets seemed to have temporarily shrugged off the event. While the Sensex tanked by over 1000 points when the Brexit result was declared, it has since recovered all its losses and closed the month of June at a YTD high of almost 27,000. Though there may be individual stocks and sectors where revenues are likely to be directly impacted, the market as a whole has shown significant resilience, waiting as it were for Britain to formally initiate the process of exit before assessing its overall impact.
Affect of Money supply on inflation and GDP.................how our GDP and inflation vary with our Indian economy going up or down...................know thru did prez.........
The document provides an economic and market update for investors. It discusses positive macroeconomic data from India including rising industrial production and falling inflation. The budget focuses on infrastructure growth. Globally, the US and Europe are recovering while emerging markets are benefiting from foreign inflows. The document recommends remaining invested in equities and outlines positive views for several sectors like banking, energy, and automobiles. It provides a target of 29,300 for the Sensex by the end of the year based on earnings growth expectations.
The document provides an economic update and outlook for India. It notes that India's GDP growth was 4.8% in the last quarter, slightly higher than the previous quarter's 4.7% but below the previous year's 6.2%. Industrial production growth slowed to 2% in April 2013. While inflation tapered to 4.7% due to fuel prices, food inflation increased to 7.64% due to higher vegetable prices. The RBI kept interest rates unchanged and will focus on inflation and the current account deficit over growth. Bank credit growth was lower and the rupee depreciated due to reversal of foreign institutional investment inflows.
This document provides an overview and outlook across various sectors in the Indian economy and globally. It begins with a note from the CEO discussing current economic conditions and opportunities from innovation and disruption. Several sections then analyze domestic and global equity markets, debt markets, key economic indicators, and provide outlooks for various sectors in India and globally. The document aims to inform investors on current economic and market conditions.
- Global equity markets declined modestly and bond yields rose due to concerns about tapering of monetary stimulus by central banks like the Fed. Commodity prices increased on hopes of improving demand from China and other large economies.
- In Asia, Chinese economic data surprised on the upside and helped stocks in Shanghai, while most other regional markets declined. Bank of Korea and Bank of Japan maintained interest rates.
- In Europe, French stocks rallied on positive trade data while German and UK stocks fell slightly. Italy's GDP declined less than expected.
- In the Americas, US and Canadian stocks dipped with debate around Fed tapering. US and Canadian trade deficits narrowed.
- Indian stocks extended declines due to weakness in the
This document provides an economic update and outlook for India. It summarizes that India's GDP growth slowed to a 10-year low of 4.5% in the third quarter due to declines in agriculture, mining, and manufacturing. Inflation rates have been falling but remain elevated. The RBI recently cut interest rates and expects further monetary easing this fiscal year alongside reforms to revive investment and growth. Equity markets have performed well recently and earnings are expected to grow 12% this year led by private banks, healthcare and consumer companies. The outlook provides sector views, favoring healthcare, banking, and FMCG.
The document provides an economic outlook and analysis for India. It discusses recent economic data and performance across various sectors in India and globally. Some key points:
- GDP growth improved slightly to 4.8% in Q2 FY14 but remains below 5%. Services sector growth is slowing.
- Inflation remains elevated with WPI at 7.52% and CPI at 11.24% in Nov 2013. Food inflation is a major contributor.
- RBI kept policy rates unchanged in its recent meeting despite higher inflation, expecting food prices to decline. Rate hikes may resume in H1 2014.
- Global growth outlook remains positive which will support equity markets. Recovery is strengthening in the
This document provides a summary of the author's summer training project at Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) Korwa. It discusses HAL and HAL Korwa, the facilities at HAL Korwa including manufacturing equipment, products manufactured including avionics systems for aircraft, and services provided like repairs and spare parts supply. It then describes in detail the jig boring machine and electric discharge machining (EDM) processes used at HAL Korwa for precision manufacturing of components.
Planificación estratégica para el fomento del turismo de los recursos turísti...inventionjournals
Thisresearchaimstoanalyzethefunctioning of communitytourism in theparish Pistishí province of Chimborazo in theplanningarea 5 Ecuador, characterizedmainlybythetourismpotentialthat has itsmainatractionistheroute Alausí train - Devil'snose. Theoverallobjectiveisthedevelopment of theplanningstrategyfor social, economic and cultural tourismdevelopmentforthepeople. Developmentplanningwasachievedsincetheestablishment of thesituational diagnosis of theterritorywiththeparticipation of thecommunity, opinionmadebyusingdifferentmethodologiessuch as fieldtrips and participatoryworkshops in thetown. Theresultswerebasedonthestrengthening of communitytourismthroughthedevelopment of thestrategic plan framed in programssuch as training and qualitymanagement and management of tourismbusinesses, strengtheningorganizationalcapacities, cultural management, facilitation and management of destinations, tourismpromotion and marketing. Keywords: Alausí, planning, conservation, impact, development, participation, rail.
The document summarizes recent news and developments in global markets and the Indian economy from October 31 - November 4, 2016. It discusses the impact of the FBI announcement regarding Hillary Clinton's emails on US and global markets. It also covers the upcoming US presidential election and its potential effects. Domestically, it discusses recent inflation data, bank earnings, and the progress of GST implementation in India. Globally, it mentions recent economic data and central bank decisions in the US, UK, Eurozone, and China.
- Core inflation in India declined to 4.5% in June from 4.7% previously, which may support a 25 basis point rate cut by the RBI in August. Industrial growth also turned positive in April after contracting previously.
- Financial results from companies so far have been better than expected, though IT sector disappointed due to Brexit. Global markets are focused on upcoming earnings season in India.
- The Bank of England is expected to cut rates to a record low of 0.25% to cushion the UK economy from Brexit shock. China's land and wage growth slowed in the first half of 2016 due to overcapacity issues.
- Yields on bonds have remained at historically low levels for decades, exposing markets to volatility and posing problems for pension funds that rely on stable returns from bonds.
- Pension funds facing low yields may need to increase contributions from workers and governments or invest in riskier assets like equities to meet liabilities. This could have social ramifications.
- Similarly, low yields make it difficult for insurance companies to meet liabilities through low-risk investments, potentially leading to higher premiums.
The document provides an economic and market summary for the week of July 18-22, 2016. Key points include:
- Momentum stocks should be exited and defensive investments pursued as markets may be volatile.
- The IMF lowered India's GDP growth forecast to 7.4% for the current fiscal year.
- Greece relaxed some capital controls as bailout reforms progress and banking confidence returns.
- Central banks will remain cautious on policy moves pending clarity on Brexit's economic impacts.
Global bond yields are at historical lows which mean global bond prices have rallied across developed markets while S&P 500 is close to its historical high. This by itself is a dichotomy as bond prices and equity prices are not expected to rally together at the same point. Either of the two has to be true.
•Bond prices and yields are inversely related therefore, bond prices rally when yields and interest rates are expected to be low. Interest rates are expected to be low because growth prospects are low. This would entail the central banks to cut rates and because the demand for credits will be low due to the low growth prospects, the yields are expected to be low which explains the rally in bond prices. Considering this, the rally in the equity markets is not possible as there is no expectation for growth. This is the dichotomy that the global world is at particularly in the developed markets. In the light of the current scenario, either of the two has to give in i.e. either bond prices correct leading to normalcy in yields or equity markets give in.
Introduction of GST in the Rajya Sabha has significance because it could have been passed in the Lok Sabha also. However, Rajya Sabha is where the government does not have majority and since it’s a constitutional amendment that requires two thirds majority, convincing all the parties is a key milestone and to that extent, introduction and subsequent passage of the bill in the Rajya Sabha will be important.
•Earnings Data for 8 core industries including mining, infrastructure and electricity was received which indicated a growth by 5.2% which augers well. However, one needs to see if this is a onetime occurrence or will it continue. Also, since rainfall was moderate, by the end of July, rural consumption is expected to be strong. To that extent, GDP is likely to grow anywhere between 7.5-8% this year. The government’s earlier projections in the budget carry an upward bias.
This document provides a weekly summary of global and domestic economic news and market performance for the week of August 8-12, 2016. Some key points:
- India's wholesale and consumer price inflation increased in July driven by higher food prices. Industrial production growth slowed in the Eurozone and China.
- US retail sales were flat in July and the budget deficit declined, while China's economic growth slowed with the weakest investment growth in over 15 years.
- The Indian stock market ended the week slightly lower, with the Sensex falling 0.11%. Most sectoral indices also declined over the week except for banking. Commodity prices were mixed with gold falling slightly while crude oil rose.
This document provides a weekly summary of economic, market, and other news from August 16-19, 2016. Some key points:
- India's CPI inflation rose above 6% in July, exceeding the central bank's tolerance limit and raising expectations of further rate hikes.
- Global government bond yields increased modestly, with the US 10-year yield rising to 1.6%, while oil prices fell on doubts that upcoming producer talks would reduce oversupply.
- Domestically, strong monsoon rains are expected to boost agricultural growth and the overall economy. Internationally, China's exports declined in 2016 and are projected to fall further due to economic pressures.
This document provides an overview and outlook across various sectors in India and globally. It discusses domestic and global economic factors, equity and debt market performance, sector-specific views, and other relevant topics. Key points include a positive outlook for domestic consumption sectors due to the festive season, signs of recovery in the Indian manufacturing sector, and expectations that global central banks will continue accommodative monetary policies.
The document provides a weekly summary of domestic and global economic news from August 29th to September 2nd, 2016.
Domestically, Indian factory activity expanded at its fastest pace since mid-2015 in August. However, India's annual economic growth slowed to 7.1% in the second quarter, below expectations. Globally, British manufacturing rebounded in August after Brexit. US job growth slowed in August, likely putting off a Federal Reserve rate hike. China and the US committed to refrain from competitive currency devaluations. Major stock indices rose around 1-3% over the week.
The document provides an overview of global and domestic markets and economic indicators for the week of September 5-9, 2016. Key points include:
- There was a global market correction on Friday due to falling bond prices, though this does not necessarily mean the dislocation in markets has been corrected.
- Indian consumer inflation is expected to have eased in August but may still be too high for an interest rate cut in September. Tax receipts rose robustly in August.
- Economic data from major economies like Germany, the US, and China suggests slowing growth, while long-term debt issuance in Europe may increase risks.
- Indian indices fell for the week while commodities like crude oil rose and the rupee
- The equity markets in India traded in a narrow range over the past week and are expected to remain range-bound in the coming weeks. Key economic data like GDP and core sector growth were in line with expectations.
- In the US, recent data points to continued moderate economic growth and makes the case for an interest rate hike in September. The impact of rate hikes is expected to be greater on developed markets than emerging markets like India.
- Macroeconomic indicators from China suggested efforts to reduce corporate financing costs and tax burdens to boost the economy, while the central bank took measures to inject liquidity into markets.
Dear Investors,
Billionaire investor Wilbur Ross said "Ultimately, I think it will be the world's most expensive divorce. But like most divorces, it's probably going to take a lot longer than it should." The Brexit vote to leave the European Union sent shock waves across the globe. Though the pre-poll surveys had indicated a close call, it was largely expected that sanity would prevail on referendum day and the British populace would vote to Remain. The ramifications of an eventual Brexit are likely to be long-drawn and far-reaching. Apart from the impact it has had on the currency markets, there is an imminent danger of other countries wanting to follow suit. This may lead to the ultimate breakdown of the EU, causing geo-political chaos with the danger of recession.
The equity markets seemed to have temporarily shrugged off the event. While the Sensex tanked by over 1000 points when the Brexit result was declared, it has since recovered all its losses and closed the month of June at a YTD high of almost 27,000. Though there may be individual stocks and sectors where revenues are likely to be directly impacted, the market as a whole has shown significant resilience, waiting as it were for Britain to formally initiate the process of exit before assessing its overall impact.
Affect of Money supply on inflation and GDP.................how our GDP and inflation vary with our Indian economy going up or down...................know thru did prez.........
The document provides an economic and market update for investors. It discusses positive macroeconomic data from India including rising industrial production and falling inflation. The budget focuses on infrastructure growth. Globally, the US and Europe are recovering while emerging markets are benefiting from foreign inflows. The document recommends remaining invested in equities and outlines positive views for several sectors like banking, energy, and automobiles. It provides a target of 29,300 for the Sensex by the end of the year based on earnings growth expectations.
The document provides an economic update and outlook for India. It notes that India's GDP growth was 4.8% in the last quarter, slightly higher than the previous quarter's 4.7% but below the previous year's 6.2%. Industrial production growth slowed to 2% in April 2013. While inflation tapered to 4.7% due to fuel prices, food inflation increased to 7.64% due to higher vegetable prices. The RBI kept interest rates unchanged and will focus on inflation and the current account deficit over growth. Bank credit growth was lower and the rupee depreciated due to reversal of foreign institutional investment inflows.
This document provides an overview and outlook across various sectors in the Indian economy and globally. It begins with a note from the CEO discussing current economic conditions and opportunities from innovation and disruption. Several sections then analyze domestic and global equity markets, debt markets, key economic indicators, and provide outlooks for various sectors in India and globally. The document aims to inform investors on current economic and market conditions.
- Global equity markets declined modestly and bond yields rose due to concerns about tapering of monetary stimulus by central banks like the Fed. Commodity prices increased on hopes of improving demand from China and other large economies.
- In Asia, Chinese economic data surprised on the upside and helped stocks in Shanghai, while most other regional markets declined. Bank of Korea and Bank of Japan maintained interest rates.
- In Europe, French stocks rallied on positive trade data while German and UK stocks fell slightly. Italy's GDP declined less than expected.
- In the Americas, US and Canadian stocks dipped with debate around Fed tapering. US and Canadian trade deficits narrowed.
- Indian stocks extended declines due to weakness in the
This document provides an economic update and outlook for India. It summarizes that India's GDP growth slowed to a 10-year low of 4.5% in the third quarter due to declines in agriculture, mining, and manufacturing. Inflation rates have been falling but remain elevated. The RBI recently cut interest rates and expects further monetary easing this fiscal year alongside reforms to revive investment and growth. Equity markets have performed well recently and earnings are expected to grow 12% this year led by private banks, healthcare and consumer companies. The outlook provides sector views, favoring healthcare, banking, and FMCG.
The document provides an economic outlook and analysis for India. It discusses recent economic data and performance across various sectors in India and globally. Some key points:
- GDP growth improved slightly to 4.8% in Q2 FY14 but remains below 5%. Services sector growth is slowing.
- Inflation remains elevated with WPI at 7.52% and CPI at 11.24% in Nov 2013. Food inflation is a major contributor.
- RBI kept policy rates unchanged in its recent meeting despite higher inflation, expecting food prices to decline. Rate hikes may resume in H1 2014.
- Global growth outlook remains positive which will support equity markets. Recovery is strengthening in the
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Este documento proporciona instrucciones para aplicar diferentes tipos de columnas a un texto, incluyendo dos, izquierda, derecha y tres columnas. Explica el procedimiento paso a paso, que incluye seleccionar el texto, configurar la página para columnas y elegir entre las opciones de dos o tres columnas con línea entre ellas. El objetivo es aplicar formato de columnas a un párrafo de ejemplo sobre el desarrollo de proyectos educativos con tecnología en el Perú.
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Generate Leads with a Financing Marketing CampaignSteve Teneriello
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Investigation of Coach Organizational Commitment Levelsinventionjournals
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The document provides an overview and outlook on domestic and global financial markets. It discusses the CEO's positive outlook on the Indian equity market rally and fiscal reforms. On the domestic front, it summarizes inflation trends, industrial growth, bond yields, and provides recommendations on debt strategies. Globally, it reviews equity market performance and updates on major economies. The overall document aims to advise investors by analyzing economic and market conditions.
From the Desk of the CEO.
The heat is on. While many of us have been vacationing in cooler climes, the Sensex has kept itself rather busy, gaining another 4% during the month of May. The upmove has come largely on the back of better-than-expected corporate results and expectations of a good monsoon. Markets are also taking cognisance of various indicators like improved auto sales, higher steel and cement offtake, public infrastructure spending, etc. which are positive signs of an imminent economic recovery.
Crude prices have silently crept up and are currently hovering at the $50 level, almost double from the January lows. So despite the adverse implications of higher crude prices on the Indian economy, there seems to be some positive correlation between crude prices and the equity markets. Though this pattern may not have always played out in the last few decades, the first few months of 2016 certainly seem to indicate so. The main reason for this is the significantly high weightage that the Energy sector has in indices the world over. When oil plummeted to sub-$30 levels, it seriously impacted the profitability of some of the world’s biggest corporations, not only causing their stock prices to fall sharply, but also impacting the broader markets in general. It also indicated a global recessionary trend, thus affecting investor sentiment and causing them to become nervous and risk-averse. The bounce back in crude has brought the price to a level that makes it profitable for companies to drill, creating a sense of well-being for both, the Energy sector as well as the countries whose economies are dependent solely on oil. Where crude prices go from here remains to be seen.
After several quarters of benign inflation, the WPI rose to 0.34% while retail inflation soared to 5.39% in April 2016. This, coupled with higher oil prices would make it difficult for Governor Rajan to announce a rate cut at the next RBI policy meeting on 7th June. Across the globe however, Janet Yellen’s comments on improving economic data in the US has the markets believing that a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve is a high possibility during its next meeting in mid-June. The outcome of Britain’s referendum on Brexit is also an event that we will be closely watching.
With markets factoring in all the good news for now, conventional logic says that short term investors need to be cautious. But when the stock market catches momentum, all negative predictions may be proven wrong.
There are of course, many more bulls than bears when it comes to a 1 year plus view. Long term investors may continue their investments and look to buy into any dips.
Wish all of you a happy monsoon season.
Factsheet for Axis Mutual Fund- WishfinAnvi Sharma
The scheme aims to generate regular long term capital growth from a diversified portfolio of equity and equity related securities. The Scheme Will invest in companies with strong growth & a sustainable business model.
Indian equity indices remained in the
positive terrain for the second consecutive month in October
2019, amid hopes of tax realignment on equities, foreign inflows
and upbeat global cues. The benchmark S&P BSE Sensex hit the
intraday record high of 40,392 on October 31, 2019. The S&P
BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 ended the month with around 4%
gains each.
Read the full document to know more.
- Global equity markets saw sharp corrections in January led by a steep fall in crude oil prices. The Nifty breached 7500 support level touching a 52-week low.
- Third quarter Indian company results were mixed, with some benefiting from lower commodities while banks may need more time to recover.
- The budget will be a key upcoming event, with the government expected to focus on rural spending, manufacturing, and fiscal reforms.
Recent performance of the debt mutual funds and the way forwardDhuraivel Gunasekaran
Recent performance of debt mutual funds and the outlook:
1) Short-term debt funds have outperformed longer-term funds due to volatility in the bond market and rising short-term interest rates.
2) Various domestic and global factors like high inflation, current account deficit, US tapering, and economic slowdown have kept bond yields elevated.
3) Going forward, short-term yields are expected to remain around 9.5-10% while 10-year bond yields could trade between 8.4-9.1%, depending on the election outcome and other macroeconomic developments.
Advice for the wise karvy private wealth report 2016sneha thakur
Understand the key investment market and this will help you take informed investment decision to increase your financial goals. This presentation is brought to you by Karvy wealth. for more information about this presentation log on to our website http://karvywealth.com
After the uncertainty of the Brexit verdict got over, the market rallied in the last week. The market got off on the
wrong foot on the day of the Referendum results and corrected by almost 1000 points. But the market soon
realized that the renewal in trade agreement between UK and Euro is not going to happen anytime soon and it will
take around 1-2 years. India being an emerging nation, the impact of this event is quite limited. After this the
market resumed its upt uptrend. Since budget, the nifty is up by 1000 points, and in percentage terms it has gained
22%. We should remember that it is still 10% off of the it’s all time high, which was achieved in March 2015.
• Despite the fact that the PE multiple of the Indian Markets is 17 – 18 times, the FIIs continue to invest in India on
account of better growth prospects, better earning visibility. India is the only trillion dollar economy which is
growing on 7.5%, which makes it a lucrative long term story.
Indian equities surged in the month of March in a catch-up rally after months of range-bound trading on the back of easing inflation giving rise to expectation of lower interest rates, strengthening rupee and record foreign investor flows. Indian equities rose by 7.8 per cent during the month.
Read the full document to know more.
Factsheet for Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund- WishfinAnvi Sharma
The scheme aims to maximize long term capital appreciation by investing primarily in equity & equity related securities of companies engaged in banking & financial services. The scheme would invest in banks as well as NBFC's, insurance companies, rating agencies, broking companies, etc.
Indian equity benchmarks recorded
splendid performance in September 2019 and clocked their
biggest single-day jump in 10 years on September 20, 2019,
following the announcement of corporate tax cut and other
measures by the government to boost the economy.
Benchmark S&P BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 ended the month with nearly 4% gains.
Read the full document to know more.
Indian Equity Markets (Nifty 50 Index) inched higher (+1.5%) during the month outperforming its emerging market peers.
New set of positive reforms by the government on domestic front and expectations of resolution of US-China trade war on
the global front were the major contributing factors which lifted sentiments.
Read the full document to know more.
We believe that the divergence between Value and Growth stocks continues to prevail, & that volatility is a factor which is inherent in equity as an asset class.
Equity View:
Markets are moving into earnings season and initial results of few corporate entities seem good enough,
starting with Indusind Bank followed by Infosys. The numbers of these companies were expected to come
out well thus this outcome is not surprising from sectors like Private Sector Banks, IT, FMCG and Pharma
which are expected to perform well. There are few sectors like Capital Goods, Public Sector Banks and old
Infra Companies which can show subdued results. We expect domestic factors like government policies
to drive the market in absence of global cues. IIP data is set to come out today and is expected to be flat;
Inflation is also expected to be higher due to base effect.
Real estate markets have a cycle of around 5 – 7 years thus an off-take seems distant, however buying
could initiate after 2 – 3 years. A rate cut acts as a catalyst but it cannot help in a sudden pick-up of
demand.
There is always a trend and a counter trend in the movement of an asset class. We need to see the long
term trend. In commodities there is bearish long term trend so counter trend is bullish and thus,
currently we are seeing a counter trend in this asset. Similarly, if we have a bullish long term trend for
equity markets then from time to time there would be correction which is also happening now and this is
known as counter trend. The incremental savings of the government can either be used in the form of an
investment, subsidies or 7th Pay commission arrears. This definitely leads to correction in equity markets
but it doesn’t lead to bearish phase. If everyone is hopeful about the turnaround of Indian story and
economic revival then no one exits completely from the stock markets. Larger expectations are that
investments will certainly pick up and we all are hopeful about it.
News:
DOMESTIC MACRO:
Indirect tax collection rose 35.8% to over Rs. 3.24 lakh crore in the first half of the current fiscal.
Indirect tax collection in the period from April to September in the last fiscal stood at about Rs.
2.38 lakh crore.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its latest World Economic Outlook has lowered India’s
growth forecast for FY16 to 7.3% from its July forecast of 7.5%. Growth is expected to bounce back
to 7.5% in 2016-17 on the back of reforms, pick-up in investments and lower commodity prices.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will be increasing the investment limit for Foreign Portfolio
Investors (FPIs) in Government Securities to Rs. 1,79,500 crore by January 1 from the existing Rs.
1,53,500 crore.
The Cabinet approves a Railway Ministry proposal to pay bonus equivalent to 78 days’ pay, with a wage
ceiling of Rs 3500 a month.
The document discusses suitable investment instruments for a retail investor given the current economic environment in India. It recommends equity linked savings schemes (ELSS), health insurance policies, and gilt funds. For a hypothetical retail investor with a monthly income of Rs. 2 lakhs, it suggests investing Rs. 10,000 in ELSS, Rs. 8,000 in gilt funds, and Rs. 28,000 in health insurance. These instruments provide good returns and low risk suited for retail investors in the current economic scenario of moderate GDP growth, inflation, and business cycles in India.
ChoiceBroking - Q2FY16 GDP growth at 7.4%; robust manufacturing expansion indicates revival in economic scenario. To read our monthly economic outlook please click here http://bit.ly/1QTqJKI
The document provides an overview of global and domestic economic conditions and outlooks across various sectors in a monthly investment advisory. Some key points:
- Global equity markets saw declines in September due to ongoing weakness in China and fears of rising US interest rates. Domestic Indian markets were also impacted by foreign outflows.
- The RBI cut interest rates by 50 basis points to boost the Indian economy amid signs of recovery in industrial growth and moderating inflation. This was welcomed by markets.
- Sector outlooks varied with IT, healthcare and financials expected to outperform while metals and utilities faced challenges due to global and regulatory factors. Government policy changes could boost infrastructure.
"Sell in May and go away‟ this old Wall Street adage has once again proved correct for most of the Global Markets which have witnessed a correction in the month of May. However, Indian markets took no cue from the above saying and continued to chug along through the month ending in a positive territory
( 1.7%).
Read the full document to know more.
Government’s release of Rs 86.55 billion to certain
banks for preferential allotment of shares, hopes of more reform
measures by the government in the upcoming Budget, and
sustained inflows from the foreign institutional investors (FIIs)
augured well for the local indices.
Read the full document to know more.
The Benchmark 10-Year Gsec yield closed at 7.41% up by 6 bps based on month end values. The yields hardened despite
the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) delivering a 25bps rate-cut in the month of April. This upward movement of yields
clearly highlights that, in addition to the rate cut market was anticipating a change in the policy stance.
Read the full document to know more.
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2. CONTENTS
• From The CEO’s Desk
• Did You Know?
• Domestic Equity Outlook
• Domestic Debt Outlook
• Domestic Debt Strategy
• Global Equity Outlook
• Global Economy Update
• Global Debt Outlook
• Sector Outlook
• Real Estate Outlook
• Commodities
• Foreign Exchange
• What’s Trending.
• Disclaimer
3. FROM THE CEO’s DESK
Dear Investors,
At the outset, let me wish you all a very Happy Diwali and may the Festival of Lights spread peace, harmony and good cheer in your lives!
The month of November has an important event to watch out for from a global perspective. With the US Presidential Elections barely a week
away, all eyes and ears seem to be glued to the media bytes coming from that part of the globe. While early polls predicted a Clinton victory,
recent polls are suggesting that Trump might make it to the finishing line, causing much volatility in global equity markets. Significant as the
event may be, its long term impact on the Indian markets will however, be limited. The likelihood of a Fed rate hike in December is also
gradually getting factored in.
The drivers for our market are far more domestic in nature. The effects of a good monsoon have already started trickling in. Inflation in
September came in at 4.3%, the lowest since August 2015. The RBI, taking cognisance of a benign inflation figure and the need to push growth
further, has decidedly become more dovish. The Monetary Policy Committee in its first meeting announced a 25bps rate cut and is expected
to move again before the end of the financial year.
The implementation of GST will be a major trigger in 2017, one that will not only result in simplification of tax administration, but also ensure
better compliance, thus boosting revenue collection. The recently concluded Income Declaration Scheme (IDS) had pan-India declarations of
Rs.65,000 crores, which enabled the Government to garner revenue to the tune of Rs.30,000 crores. The huge success of the IDS coupled with
the Government’s tough stance on unaccounted income will make sure that all these resources will now move to the mainstream economy.
4. The second quarter results have been rather muted in overall terms and clearly disappointing in some areas. Notable among these is
the IT sector which has been under pressure for several quarters now, both in terms of volumes and pricing. Domestic consumption
plays continue to do well. With the implementation of the 7th Pay Commission, we expect higher disposable incomes to benefit urban
discretionary spending in the form of automobiles, white goods, etc. Growth in rural incomes as a result of the good monsoon is likely to
benefit the FMCG sector, tractors, two-wheelers and a whole host of agri-based companies.
While markets may consolidate or even correct in the near term, we urge investors to have a longer horizon. To quote Ben Graham,
“The individual investor should act consistently as an investor and not as a speculator.” We expect significant flows into the Indian equity
markets over the next couple of years. There is increasing awareness among domestic investors of the importance of Equity in their
overall Asset Allocation and we are seeing evidence of this in the regular month-on-month inflows into mutual funds and other equity
products. We believe that Equity is an asset class that you cannot afford to ignore anymore.
On behalf of Karvy Private Wealth, I wish you all a Happy Samvat 2073! Health, happiness, prosperity and good fortune – may they all be
with you in the coming Year!
5. DID YOU KNOW
Cash transactions are down to
just three per cent of the
national economy in Sweden.
.
The first bank card, named
"Charg-It," was introduced in
1946 by John Biggins, a banker in
Brooklyn,.
The Amsterdam Stock Exchange was
established in 1602 by the Dutch East
India Company, was the first to
formally begin trading in securities.
7. As on 25th
October
2016
1 Month Change
1 Year
Change
Equity Markets
BSE Sensex 28,091 -0.72% 2.67%
CNX Nifty 8691 -0.36% 4.29%
BSE Mid Cap 13543 2.13% 22.23%
BSE Small Cap 13,518 4.90% 18.20%
Equity markets showed some consolidation; after witnessing profit
booking at higher levels. The month began on a weak macro with
September manufacturing and services PMI below previous
month’s figures. A 25 bps rate cut by the new RBI governor failed
to cheer the markets as central bank acknowledged upside risks to
the target inflation. Industrial growth continued to show
contraction on monthly basis. However, positives came in form of
lower CPI and WPI. Exports growth at 4.6% was a welcome
surprise. Globally, the scene remained cautious as probability of
rate hike by US Fed in coming months became high. Larger macro
trend is expected to be positive on back of increased consumer
spend that should happen with the disbursements of 7th Pay
Commission. Ongoing festive season should also drive spending
and overall growth, benefiting sectors like automobiles, fmcg,
financials and consumer durables. In the near term, above average
valuations are keeping the markets under check and thus leading
to a healthy consolidation. Upcoming US Presidential elections are
also keeping market participants on the sidelines. Quarterly result
season so far has been overall in line with expectations.
80
90
100
110
120
130
140 S & P BSE Sensex CNX Nifty BSE Midcap BSE Smallcap
8. DOMESTIC EQUITY OUTLOOK
GOVERNMENT POLICY
• The much awaited GST bill has been finally passed by both houses of Parliament and is likely to be ratified by half the
Indian state legislatures paving the way for its rollout for FY17-18. Railway budget is likely to be subsumed in the Union
budget for FY17-18 marking a historic departure from convention.
9. WHOLESALE PRICE INDEX
• India's wholesale prices index continued in positive
territory at 3.57% for September, 2016 as compared to
3.74% for the month of August.
• Food articles inflation increased in the month of
September by 5.75%. Vegetables decreased by 10.91%.
Inflation in the fuel and power segment was 5.6%, while
that of manufactured products it was 2.48% in September.
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
• CPI for the month of September eased further to 4.31% as
compared to 5.05% in August.
• Year-on-year, cost of food and beverages decreased 4.31
percent (5.83 percent in August).
• The food prices slowed by 3.88% compared to 5.91% in
the previous month.
Source – Tradingeconomics
-6.00%
-4.00%
-2.00%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16
WPI CPI
10. IIP
• Industrial output in India contracted by 0.7 percent year-on-
year in August of 2016, against -2.5% in July 2016.
• Manufacturing declined 0.3%, as against he decline of 3.04% in
July. Meanwhile, the mining sector output decreased by 5.6% in
August 2016.
GDP
• India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the first
quarter of the current financial year slowed down to 7.1%
versus 7.9% for the previous quarter.
• Private consumption growth eased to 6.7 percent from 8.3
percent in the previous quarter while government spending
jumped 18.8 percent, accelerating from a 2.9 percent growth
in Q1. Gross fixed capital formation shrank at a faster 3.1
percent, following a 1.9 percent contraction in the previous
period.
Source – Tradingeconomics
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
GDP
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
Aug
15
Sep
15
Oct
15
Nov
15
Dec
15
Jan
16
Feb
16
Mar
16
Apr
16
May
16
Jun
16
Jul
16
Aug
16
IIP
11. DOMESTIC DEBT OUTLOOK
Government bonds slipped on selling pressure from banks and
corporates but the overnight call money rates turned higher
following good demand from borrowing banks amid tight liquidity
in the banking system. The 7.59% government security maturing in
2026 slid to 104.71 from 104.8275 previously, while its yield went
up to 6.89%.
Low rated Indian companies have collectively raised about $5
billion this year –a new high –overseas. Nine domestic companies
including, Delhi International Airport, Jubilant Pharma, Novelis,
Indiabulls Housing Finance, collectively issued bonds worth $4.873
billion, the highest in atleast 6 years.
As on 25th
October 2016
1 Month
Change
1 Year Change
Debt Markets
10-Yr G-Sec-
Yield
6.87 (6bps) (74bps)
Fixed Deposit 7.25 0bps (75bps)
Source – Reuters
0
50
100
150
200
250
AAA AA+ AA AA- A+ A A- BBB+
Corporate Bond Spreads
5 Years 10 Years 15 Years
6.80
7.00
7.20
7.40
7.60
7.80
8.00
8.20
8.40
8.60
8.80 G-Sec
10 YR Gsec Yield 5 YR Gsec Yield 15 YR Gsec Yield
12. DOMESTIC DEBT STRATEGY
SHORT TERM DEBT
Investors who have a low appetite for interest rate volatility and seeking accrual returns with moderate
duration can look at short term debt funds with the time horizon of 1 year to 2 years. Even though, most
of the short term fund’s YTMs have fallen to sub-7%, our recommended short term debt funds still have
high YTMs (7.5%-10.3%) providing interesting investment opportunities.
CORPORATE BOND FUNDS
The macro economic outlook along with corporate profitability seems to be improving. We remain
positive on the credit outlook and look for opportunities in the credit space. The corporate bond market
segment continues to be attractive over the medium to long term. The yields are at elevated levels and
interest rate outlook seems favorable. The current scenario offers the potential opportunity to lock in
higher accruals, with the expectation that these levels of yields may not sustain over the short to medium
term. With credit easing, there are chances that the companies’ rating will be upgraded that would further
cause a rally in bonds, which in turn will benefit corporate bond funds.
DYNAMIC BOND FUNDS As RBI has reduced the key policy rates, dynamic bond funds have benefited a lot as most of them have a
mix of gilt and long term bonds in their portfolio. Going ahead, we expect RBI to further reduce key policy
rates only after studying the macro-economic data such as inflation, movement in crude oil prices and so
on. Investors who don’t want to time the market and who can depend on fund managers to take view on
interest rates can look at dynamic bond funds.
LONG TERM DEBT FUNDS
As RBI has little room left for further rate cuts, we expect Indian Debt Market to factor the same. Since the
US Fed rate hike is expected in the medium term, we expect there will be very little juice left in staying
invested in long term debt funds. Investors should start exiting their investments in Gilt Funds and Long
Term Income Funds and go for accrual based short to medium term debt funds.
14. As on 25th
October 2016
1 Month
Change
1 Year
Change
Equity Markets
MSCI World 1701 -1.65% -0.22%
Hang Seng 23565 1.06% 1.94%
S&P 500 2143 -0.14% 3.48%
Nikkei 17365 4.96% -8.35%
GLOBAL INDICES
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
MSCI World Hang Seng S&P 500 Nikkei
15. GLOBAL EQUITY OUTLOOK
US Fed once again kept the key interest rates on hold at its latest policy meeting. However, improving macros and support from key
members indicate a rate hike by December. Recent comments from the Fed and ECB officials indicate that global central banks would be
less accommodative compared to earlier times.
16. GLOBAL ECONOMY UPDATE
UNITED STATES U.S. consumer spending rose more than expected in September as households boosted purchases
of motor vehicles and inflation increased steadily, which could bolster expectations of an interest
rate hike from the Federal Reserve in December. Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70
percent of U.S. economic activity, increased 0.5 percent after dipping 0.1 percent in August. Last
month's rise in consumer spending offered a fairly strong handoff from the third quarter to the
current quarter.
The U.S. economy grew at its fastest pace in two years in the third quarter as a surge in exports and
a rebound in inventory investment offset a slowdown in consumer spending. Gross domestic
product increased at a 2.9 percent annual rate after expanding at a 1.4 percent pace in the second
quarter.
JAPAN
Japan's core consumer prices fell for a seventh straight month and household spending slumped in
September, endorsing the central bank's view it will take some time for inflation to accelerate to its 2
percent target as the economy stagnates. While the sluggish indicators come as little surprise to
policymakers, the numbers add to a recent run of gloomy data that will keep the Bank of Japan
under pressure to maintain an aggressive stimulus program.
Japanese household spending fell 2.1 percent in September from a year earlier in price-adjusted,
real terms.
Source – Reuters
17. GLOBAL ECONOMY UPDATE
EUROPE The euro zone economy grew at the same slow pace in the third quarter as the second and core
inflation dipped in October, reinforcing expectations that the European Central Bank will decide to
extend its asset-buying program in December. The European Union's statistics office Eurostat said
gross domestic product in the 19 countries sharing the euro rose 0.3 percent quarter-on-quarter in
the July-September period and by 1.6 percent year-on-year.
Consumer prices rose 0.5 percent year-on-year in October, Eurostat estimated, picking up from 0.4
percent in September and 0.2 percent in August as the drag on the index from energy diminished.
EMERGING ECONOMIES
Indian factory activity expanded at its fastest pace in almost two years in October, boosted by a
surge in output and new orders, but it came alongside a sharp rise in input costs and some pass on
to end-consumers.
Activity in China's manufacturing sector expanded at the fastest pace in more than two years in
October, adding to views that the world's second-largest economy is stabilising thanks to a
construction boom. The official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) stood at 51.2 in October,
compared with the previous month's 50.4 and above the 50-point mark that separates growth from
contraction on a monthly basis.
Source – Reuters
18. GLOBAL DEBT OUTLOOK
Global bond yields are rising at a rapid clip as traders try to adjust to the
idea of a world that isn't flush with easy money from central banks
anymore. The move in bonds has been abrupt, taking the U.S. 10-year yield
to a five-month high of 1.87 percent by midmorning Thursday, from 1.79
percent the day earlier. The German 10-year bund was yielding 0.17, after
being at zero just a few days ago, and the U.K. 10-year gilt was at a pre-
Brexit high. Yields were also rising Thursday in Japan, Canada and Brazil,
among others.
U.S, Government Debt prices were under pressure as investors awaited
new developments coming out of leading central banks, amid uncertainty
surrounding the U.S. election. The yield on the benchmark 10 year Treasury
Note sat higher at around 1.854 percent, while the yield on the 30 year
Treasury Bond was also up at 2.605 percent. Bond yields move inversely to
prices.
Global bond markets experienced a significant selloff last week, sparking
fears that something much more serious could be developing. There are
two main reasons for the bond sell-off. The first is the expectation of a
December interest rise by the US Federal Reserve, coupled with uncertainty
over the future of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) quantitative easing
(QE) program of bond purchases. The second is signs that inflation may be
moving upward, which tends to depress bond prices.
Ratings Country 10 Yr G-Sec Yield
1 Month
Change
AAA
Germany 0.13% 23 bps
Hong Kong 1.04% 3 bps
Sweden 0.30% 12 bps
Switzerland -0.35% 20 bps
AA+ USA 1.80% 18 bps
AA-
China 2.75% 1 bps
Japan -0.06% 1 bps
Source – Reuters
20. SECTOR OUTLOOK
SECTOR STANCE REMARKS
Automobiles
Passenger vehicles and CVs will continue to outperform two-wheeler segment. Tractors to benefit on account of
base effect and expected normal monsoons.
Auto-ancillaries expected to do well due to revival of demand and stable global markets.
BFSI
Private sector banks continue to deliver earnings in line with expectations. However, PSBs delivering poor numbers
on higher slippages and lower credit growth. We expect this trend to continue for next few quarters.
FMCG
We prefer “discretionary consumption” theme within FMCG. Key beneficiaries such as durables and branded
garments, as the growth in this segment will be disproportionately higher vis-à-vis the increase in disposable
incomes. A bounce in raw materials could put pressure on margins. Expect uptick in volumes post monsoons.
E&C
Order inflows expected to improve as spending and capital expenditure likely to move up on economic recovery.
Moreover, sluggish execution and weak macros create a challenging environment.
21. SECTOR OUTLOOK
SECTOR STANCE REMARKS
Cement
Cement volumes and realizations saw uptick in South region. Early signs of recovery, specifically hopes of bounce
back in North and West region due to pick up in infrastructure. Cost benefits would continue to drive earnings.
IT/ITES
Positive impact would be due to currency volatility which would be offset by the Negative impact from the slower
volume growth in the EU regions
Power Utilities
Lack of fuel linkages , poor SEB health, adverse CERC guidelines have compromised the ROE’s leading to de-rating
in near term. Reform initiatives through UDAY can improve sector prospects in long run.
Healthcare
Regulatory risks have become more evident and frequent with FDA inspections for Pharma companies. US growth
continues to be muted for large caps due to lower approvals and regulatory issues.
22. SECTOR OUTLOOK
SECTOR STANCE REMARKS
Energy
Crude prices at 6 month high though at substantially lower on annual basis. Nil subsidy in FY16 for OMC’s is a
positive. Trend expected to continue.
Telecom
Regulatory uncertainties have come down. However, aggressive bids for spectrum has revived fears of sub-optimal
returns on capital. Further launch of R-Jio would lead to price disruption thereby impacting the entire sector
Metals
Lower global growth and Chinese slowdown has kept the growth subdued. Some recovery seen over past few
months with Chinese economy stabilizing. Long term prospects continue to remain weak.
24. REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK
The Central Government has eased FDI norms and
lifted restrictions on ticket size, Project size and stage
of entry of capital thus, paving way for virtually any
project to receive Foreign equity funds. Residential
Prices have remained stagnant across Tier I markets.
All Tier I markets have continued to witness moderate
decrease in demand with sluggish market sentiments.
With improvements in infrastructure across cities like
Chandigarh, Jaipur, Lucknow, Ahmedabad, Bhopal,
Nagpur, Patna and Cochin and quality products being
offered the end users /investors are being spoilt for
choice. The Demand drivers have increased
nuclearization, rising disposable incomes and easier
availability of credit.
RESIDENTIAL Tier I Tier II
25. REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK
Bangalore NCR and Hyderabad have seen strong
demand in the commercial segment and even Mumbai
has picked up in the later half of the year. The capital
values have also been on rise in major markets except
in NCR where values have remained stable.
Absorption volumes have been surpassing new
completions consistently, since H1 2014, as a result of
which, the vacancy levels in India have been dwindling.
Low unit sizes have played an important role in
maintaining the absorption levels in these markets.
Lease rentals as well as capital values continue to be
stable at their current levels in the commercial asset
class.
COMMERCIAL Tier I Tier II
26. REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK
In Mumbai demand for space in successful malls
continued to be on the rise and categories such as
F&B, premium apparel and entertainment dominated
leasing activity. International brands were seen
increasing their footprints . Hyderabad has seen a
steady growth in demand while markets like NCR,
Bangalore and Chennai remained stagnant.
The Mall concept is new to Tier II cities and High Street
retail is still popular. Anecdotal evidence suggests that
rentals have remained stagnant in this space.
RETAIL Tier I Tier II
27. REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK
Fringe areas with improving connectivity to Metro
cities and other top 8 to 10 cities in India have seen
interest in purchase of Plotted / Villa developments
due to lower ticket size and better marketing by
developers /aggregators. There is an uptick in demand
for warehousing with the growth of E commerce.
Land in Tier II and III cities along upcoming /
established growth corridors have seen good
percentage appreciation due to low investment base
in such areas.
LAND Tier I Tier II
28. COMMODITIES
GOLD
Gold has seen a smart appreciation in this calendar year. Global
uncertainties have pushed international gold prices beyond
$1250. Any risk aversion due to macro or geo-political news
flows could strengthen its prices. Near term range remains
$1200-1400.
• As on 25th October, 2016 : 30,002 per 10gm
• 1 month change : -4.16%
• 1 year change : 12.64%
24000
26000
28000
30000
32000
Gold
29. COMMODITIES
CRUDE OIL
Crude prices have stabilized between $40- $50 per barrel.
Crude along with Gold continues be the prime indicator of
global risk appetite. A breakout from current range is
expected soon.
• As on 25th October, 2016 : $49.08 per bbl
• 1 month change : 5.30%
• 1 year change : 5.40%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Crude
30. Currency
As on 25th
October
2016
1 Month Change 1 Year Change
USD/INR 66.76 0.08% -2.70%
GBP/INR 81.36 -5.90% 22.35%
Euro/INR 72.81 -2.76% -1.61%
Yen/INR 64.13 -3.02% -16.37%
USD/Euro 0.91 3.11% 1.19%
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
• The Yuan joined the elite basket of currencies that
together form the Special Drawing Right (SDR), a unit of
account created by the International Monetary Fund
(IMF). The designation represents an important “seal of
approval” from the IMF and its 189-country
membership, and marks a big milestone in the
internationalisation of China’s currency. While the Yuan
is still far from being a major global reserve currency,
inclusion in the SDR basket will help nudge it in that
direction
• The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is widely expected
to keep the benchmark interest rate at the record-low
of 1.50% in November, but the fresh batch of central
bank rhetoric may fuel the near-term rebound in
AUD/USD should the central bank endorse a wait-and-
see approach for monetary policy.
0.08%
-5.90%
-2.76%
-3.02%
-7.00%
-6.00%
-5.00%
-4.00%
-3.00%
-2.00%
-1.00%
0.00%
1.00%
USD GBP EURO YEN
31. WHAT’S TRENDING
The TATA Fiasco
Event
• On 24th October evening after the markets closed, Tata Sons Ltd released a statement saying that its board has replaced Cyrus Mistry as
chairman. It also added that Ratan Tata, the previous chairman, will take over in the interim and that a search panel has been constituted to
find a new boss.
• The ouster of Mistry from the 148-year-old conglomerate is a classic example of management clashes over strategy, leadership styles, and
corporate structure. Mistry was the company’s first chairman from outside the Tata family. Mistry alleges that right after his appointment in
2012, the board tweaked the company’s articles of association to limit the chairman’s power.
• Media reports speculate that the family was unhappy with some of the business decisions Mistry took. And when Ratan Tata, the patriarch of
the Tata family, took over from Mistry as the interim chairman, it raised questions about whether he was too reluctant to cede control over
the group, which had more than $100 billion in revenue last year.
Impact
• As individual companies enjoy wide autonomy and are being managed by professionals, any changes at the level of holding company would
have minimal impact on day-to-day operations.
• The long-term capex plans may get reassessed to ensure that they are in consonance with the new leadership's vision for growth for the
group.
• Tata Group is the country’s most valuable group and has an estimated 4.1 million shareholders across various listed companies. The
combined market valuation of all listed companies of Tata Group almost doubled during the four-year tenure of outgoing chief Cyrus Mistry.
• There have been reports that Cyrus Mistry has decided to move the Bombay High Court against Tata Sons' decision to remove him from the
Chairman's post. But it will not have a long-term impact on Tata group stocks.
Source – Econmic Times, www.wikipedia.com
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