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The World This Week November 14 - November 18 2016

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The World This Week November 14 - November 18 2016

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The World This Week November 14 - November 18 2016

  1. 1. The World This Week November 14 – November 18, 2016
  2. 2. Equity View: Currently the focus is on Federal rate hike and Trump’s election. The global expectation for the next 3-4 weeks is that markets are going to be volatile and that there might be a rate hike by the US Fed in the month of December. India faced certain issues as demonetization was introduced. The impact was felt in many of the favorite industries as demand was affected. The interesting numbers to be watched would be the economic indicators which will keep on coming because the actual earnings impact will only be seen in the month of January. Share prices are a slave of earnings so what we can watch over the next few weeks would be the macro indicators and markets are expected to go down further in the short term. Deutsche bank has taken its end year focus from 28000 to 25000 on the Sensex. Karvy believes that stock markets would be in a good range to buy in the next two to three weeks and that would give a great opportunity for long term allocations in equity funds and PMS. It is a good time for debt allocation as well because with demonetization a lot of money has come into the banking system and Mr. Modi has himself mentioned that rate cuts by banks are expected. Many banks have in fact taken their lending rates down on their own and the entire transmission challenge that MrRaghuram Rajan had seemed to have been solved at one go. Therefore chances are very high that we will have rate cuts which will help the industry and equity market in the long run and also debt funds in the short term. However, these rate cuts would be discounted very fast. A number of industries are recommending duration funds. In the short term perspective duration funds are not an issue however, most clients are investors and they might not be able to capture this as most of it has been discounted. We are also looking at a FOMC rate which might have an impact on the rate of interest in the medium term. Hence anybody looking at a long term investment is advised to look at accrual funds or medium duration but not too long a duration unless someone is looking to buy G-sec and building actively in G-sec. FD rate cuts give people an opportunity for to take risk by buying a MIP or buying a balanced fund by adding equity allocation to debt portfolio. Times are good for us and customers to change their approach slightly and move away from low interest rate products to high interest rate products and to the equity market. Large caps have corrected by almost 12% and there has been 18-20% correction in the midcap space. It is a better risk to reward ratio in the short to medium term as well.
  3. 3. News: DOMESTIC MACRO:  Tax revenue of the Centre, after the mandatory transfer to states, is expected to exceed the Budget target by at least R 50,000 crore, or close to 5%, during the current fiscal, helping the government meet the fiscal deficit target of 3.5% of the gross domestic product rather easily. GLOBAL MACRO EURO  Prime Minister Theresa May will unveil her new industrial strategy on Monday, pledging to spend billions of pounds on science, technology and research to spur a new "ambitious" way of doing business in Britain. United States  The U.S. economy is on track to grow at a 3.6 percent annualized pace in the fourth quarter after data showed domestic housing starts hit a nine-year high in October, the Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDP Now forecast model showed. China  Chinese policymakers have been unfazed by the yuan's recent slide, but are ready to slow its descent for fear of fanning capital flight if the currency falls too quickly through the psychologically important 7-per-dollar level.
  4. 4. Indices: Date Sensex Midcap Auto Bankex CD CG FMCG HC IT Metals O&G Power Realty Teck 15-11-2016 26,305 11,977 19,520 22,053 11,048 13,923 7,973 15,164 9,282 10,262 11,630 1,944 1,231 5,126 16-11-2016 26,299 12,044 19,711 21,841 10,831 13,886 7,899 14,960 9,445 10,152 11,546 1,949 1,222 5,217 17-11-2016 26,228 11,999 19,698 21,860 10,864 13,875 7,925 15,014 9,315 10,203 11,587 1,967 1,223 5,130 18-11-2016 26,150 12,072 19,859 21,727 10,727 13,864 7,849 15,207 9,264 10,081 11,755 1,991 1,239 5,102 -0.59% 0.80% 1.74% -1.48% -2.91% -0.43% -1.56% 0.28% -0.19% -1.76% 1.07% 2.45% 0.66% -0.47% Commodities and Currency: Date USD GBP EURO YEN Crude (Rs. per BBL) Gold (Rs. Per 10gms) 14-11-2016 2910.00 15-11-2016 67.7173 84.4232 72.7758 62.61 2904.00 29949.00 16-11-2016 67.7791 84.6154 72.8422 62.12 3102.00 29808.00 17-11-2016 67.9106 84.3178 72.5625 62.1 3089.00 29666.00 18-11-2016 68.0937 84.4158 72.2134 61.56 3084.00 29354.00 -0.56% 0.01% 0.77% 1.68% -5.98% 1.99% Debt: Tenor Gilt Yield in % (Friday) Change in bps (Week) 1-Year 6.21 -23 2-Year 6.25 -15 5-Year 6.40 -17 10-Year 6.43 -29
  5. 5. Abhijit Bhave Shantanu Awasthi Rishi Ahirkar Disclaimer The information and views presented here are prepared by Karvy Private Wealth (a division of Karvy Stock Broking Limited) or other Karvy Group companies. The information contained herein is based on our analysis and upon sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it. The investments discussed or recommended here may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advice, as they believe necessary. While acting upon any information or analysis mentioned here, investors may please note that neither Karvy nor any person connected with any associated companies of Karvy accepts any liability arising from the use of this information and views mentioned here. The author, directors and other employees of Karvy and its affiliates may hold long or short positions in the above- mentioned companies from time to time. Every employee of Karvy and its associated companies are required to disclose their individual stock holdings and details of trades, if any, that they undertake. The team rendering corporate analysis and investment recommendations are restricted in purchasing/selling of shares or other securities till such a time this recommendation has either been displayed or has been forwarded to clients of Karvy. All employees are further restricted to place orders only through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. The information given in this document on tax are for guidance only, and should not be construed as tax advice. Investors are advised to consult their respective tax advisers to understand the specific tax incidence applicable to them. We also expect significant changes in the tax laws once the new Direct Tax Code is in force – this could change the applicability and incidence of tax on investments Karvy Private Wealth (A division of Karvy Stock Broking Limited) operates from within India and is subject to Indian regulations. Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. is a SEBI registered stock broker, depository participant having its offices at: 702, Hallmark Business plaza, Sant Dnyaneshwar Marg, Bandra (East), off Bandra Kurla Complex, Mumbai 400 051 . (Registered office Address: Karvy Stock Broking Limited, “KARVY HOUSE”, 46, Avenue 4, Street No.1, Banjara Hills, Hyderabad 500 034) SEBI registration No’s:”NSE(CM):INB230770138, NSE(F&O): INF230770138, BSE: INB010770130, BSE(F&O): INF010770131,NCDEX(00236, NSE(CDS):INE230770138, NSDL – SEBI Registration No: IN-DP-NSDL-247-2005, CSDL-SEBI Registration No:IN-DP-CSDL-305-2005, PMS Registration No.: INP000001512”

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