2. Contents
Index Page No.
Economic Update 4
Equity Outlook 8
Debt Outlook 11
Forex 13
Commodities 14
Real Estate 15
2
3. From the Desk of the CIO…
Dear Investor,
As we had expected, September turned out to be quite influential in terms tune with the genuine requirement of the US economy unlike the previous
of equity market direction. Of the three announcements we had been two rounds of quantitative easing (QE). In the earlier rounds, the US Fed
tracking, two (from ECB and US Fed respectively) were positive while one flooded the US debt capital markets with a lot of liquidity through purchase
(from RBI) was neutral. The two positive announcements have already had of US government debt. That sent a tsunami of liquidity and risk capital
some impact on the capital markets globally. across the world – inflating risk asset prices. As the effects of liquidity
subsided, many investors realized that they had been overenthusiastic in
The ECB announcement was a turning point in the sovereign debt crisis in
buying risk assets – which led to a turnaround in the prices of these assets
Euro-zone in more than one ways. ECB’s clearly articulated stand of
later on. This time though, the Fed seems to have learnt its lesson and is
potentially “unlimited” purchase of illiquid/insolvent government bonds is
proposing to do QE-3 in a more phased out manner. This would hopefully
essentially a back-door mutualization of debt that the investors have been
better achieve the true objective of spurring investments in US economy
hoping for all along. ECB draws its creditworthiness from Euro-zone as a
without causing too much liquidity driven upheaval in global assets. For this
whole and hence in essence from Germany (for now at least). ECB debt is
reason, we believe that the positive effects of QE-3 will be felt through next
thus Euro-zone combined debt. The fact that ECB could potentially end up
several months.
owning a large amount of troubled Euro-zone government (PIIGS) bonds
means that these bonds are underwritten by Euro-zone creditworthiness as The neutral announcement came from RBI – along widely expected lines –
long as the commitment to buy them lasts. Temporarily at least, in a of no repo rate cut. Increasingly though, companies and government alike
roundabout manner, the bonds of all Euro-zone governments are have come to expect a rate cut in the next policy announcement. We are
effectively mutualized. The caveat is that the commitment is not indefinite. not particularly sure about a change of heart at RBI just yet, with inflation
If and when it ends, the mutualization comes off. That might explain why still in the uncomfortable zone and fiscal deficit still on the higher side.
the yields on all Euro-zone government debt have not converged fully. Hence we maintain the cautious stance on long term debt and positive
Nevertheless, September 2012 will come to be looked at as the turning outlook on short term debt and corporate debt.
point of sovereign debt crisis in Euro-zone – the month in which the fiscal
However, with the global investor sentiment turning decisively positive, we
integration of Eurozon began. Funnily enough, not many in Europe or the
expect equity markets globally to do well in the next few months. Besides
rest of the world seem to have grasped the true depth of these
India, US and Brazil might be good markets to take exposure to. The global
developments.
exposure is available to Indian investors through a select set of global
The US Fed announcement, while anticipated widely, was much more in mutual funds and ETFs.
“Advisory services are provided through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. (PMS) having SEBI Registration No: INP000001512. Investments are subject to market risks. Please read the disclaimer on slide no.18”
5. Economy Update - Global
• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had declined in August, has improved in
September. The Index now stands at 70.3 (1985=100), up from 61.3 in June.
US • US Fed Reserve took the steps to support the economy. It will spend $40 bn a month to buy mortgage
bonds for as long as it deems necessary to make home buying more affordable and will keep interest
rates at record lows until mid-2015.
• The seasonally adjusted Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rose to 46.1 in September (a 6-month high),
down from 45.1 in August. Despite seeing some easing in the rate of decline, manufacturers across the
Europe euro area suffered the worst quarter for three years in the three months to September.
• The unemployment rate across 17 countries that use the Euro came in at a record high rate of 11.4% in
August slightly above 11.3% (revised) in July.
• Japan’s Manufacturing PMI posted a reading of 48.0, a 3-month high in September, up from 47.7 in
August signaling a modest deterioration in operating conditions.
• Japan’s unemployment rate fell to 4.2 percent last month from 4.3 percent in July, the improvement was
Japan not caused by increasing employment, but by people who left the job market.
• Japan’s exports in August totalled $64.3bn, down5.8%from a year earlier, while imports fell 5.4% to
$73.9bn,thereby resulting in a trade deficit of $9.6bn compared with a $9.9bn deficit last year.
• China’s HSBC PMI inched slightly higher to 47.9 in September from 47.6 in August signaling an eleventh
successive month-on-month deterioration in Chinese manufacturing sector operating conditions.
Emerging • China also approved $157bn on infrastructure spending to add flagging economy.
economies • The Indian government has relaxed foreign direct investment (FDI) in aviation, multi-brand retail, power
exchanges and broadcast services as part of package of measures aimed at reviving growth and staving
off a ratings downgrade. 5
6. Economy Outlook - Domestic
10.0% • India's economic growth fell below the psychologically
8.0% IIP
significant 6% level for the Second consecutive time in last 3
6.0%
4.0% years, signalling that country’s slowdown is deepening and
2.0% affecting all sectors of the economy. GDP marginally grew by 2
0.0% bps when compared with the Last quarter of FY 12 reading of
-2.0%
-4.0%
5.3%. Sharp falls in the manufacturing & Agriculture sectors
-6.0% have led to India’s GDP growing only at 5.5% as compared to
Dec 11
Dec 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
Aug 11
Aug 11
Sep 11
Sep 11
Feb 12
Feb 12
Mar 12
Mar 12
May 12
May 12
May 12
Jul 11
Jul 11
Oct 11
Oct 11
Nov 11
Nov 11
Nov 11
Apr 12
Apr 12
Jan 12
Jan 12 7.7% growth a year earlier.
• While the deceleration in the overall economy is apparent
• Industrial output as measured by the index of industrial production across all industry groups, the construction sector has seen a
(IIP) expanded just 0.1% year-on-year in July, an improvement from sharp year-on-year growth of 10.9% in the June quarter, which
the 1.8% contraction seen in June. Contraction of manufacturing is a five-year high. This has also driven demand for steel and
sector output pulled down the industrial production in July. The cement. The activities which gained substantially in this quarter
industrial growth during the four-month period ending July 2012, compared to a year-ago were ‘Financing, insurance, real estate
contracted by 0.1 % as against the growth of 6.1% in the same and business services’ at 10.84% and ‘Community, social
period last fiscal. and personal services’ at 7.92%.
9.0
• Among various IIP constituents, manufacturing fell 0.2% in July, 8.4 8.3
slightly better than June's 3.1% decline, while mining output fell 7.8 7.7
GDP growth
8.0
0.7% and electricity generation growth slipped to 2.8% from 8.8% 6.9
7.0
in June. Production of capital goods, an indicator of investment 6.1
activity, fell 5% in July. 6.0 5.5
5.3
• Manufacturing and mining continued to remain laggards, with the 5.0
output of both the sectors declining in July — by 0.2 per cent and 4.0
0.7 per cent, respectively. FY11(Q2) FY11(Q3) FY11(Q4) FY12(Q1) FY12(Q2) FY12(Q3) FY12(Q4) FY13(Q1)
6
7. Economic Outlook - Domestic
Growth in credit & deposits of SCBs
The annual rate of inflation, based on monthly WPI
25.0% Bank Credit Aggregate Deposits (Wholesale Price Index), stood at 7.55% for the month of
August, 2012 as compared to 6.87% for the previous month
20.0% and 9.78% during the corresponding month of the previous
year. The rise in headline inflation is driven by an increase in
15.0% fuel and power prices and inflation in manufactured
products.
10.0%
The Food inflation, which plays a major role in influencing
5.0% the headline number, declined to 9.14%% in August against
10.06% in July.
Annual inflation rate based on all India general CPI
As on 31st August 2012, Bank credits grew by 17.7% on a Y-o-Y (Combined) for August 2012 on point to point basis (August
basis which is 295 Bps lower than the growth witnessed in 2012 over August 2011) is 10.03 % as compared to 9.86 %
August 2011 (i.e. 20.7%). Aggregate deposits on a Y-o-Y basis (final) for the month of July 2012.
grew at 15.1%, viz-a viz a growth of 18.0% in August 2011.
On 17th Sept 2012, Reserve Bank of India kept the repo rate-the
key policy rate-unchanged in its mid quarter monetary policy 10.0%
Wholesale Price Index
review, however it cut cash reserve ratio (CRR) by 25 basis points 9.0%
to 4.50%. The 25-basis point cut in CRR is expected to release
around Rs 17,000 crore into the system. 8.0%
The RBI explained the CRR reduction as a forward-looking 7.0%
measure to address the liquidity pressures expected to arise 6.0%
in the near term on account of the seasonal pickup in credit
growth in the second half of the fiscal year; advance tax
payments in end-September 2012; and increase in currency
demand related to the onset of the festive season in India. 7
* End of period figures
8. Equity Outlook
Increase Allocation to Equity
The month of September saw fresh monetary measures undertaken by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the US Fed to calm financial markets
and provide further stimulus to economic activity. ECBs decision to buy unlimited bonds provided the much needed stability to the European
situation. In US, Fed announced that it will buy 40 billion dollars worth of mortgage backed securities till unemployment number improves. Global
equity markets reacted positively to these announcements with a sharp run-up in equity markets.
In India, Government undertook the long anticipated measures towards fiscal consolidation by reducing fuel subsidies. Also, steps were taken to
allow foreign direct investment in multi-brand retail and aviation which can contribute to both greater capital inflows and higher productivity. Indian
markets moved up by 8% and continues to be one of the best performing markets in the emerging world. FIIs bought over Rs. 20,000 crs of Indian
Equity Markets taking the calendar year till date (CYTD) number to 80000 crores. Markets await further positive policy actions and reforms
announcements by the central government.
RBI, in its Quarterly Policy Review undertook a CRR cut of 25 bps which will release Rs.17,000 crs of additional liquidity in the banking system. In the
inflation versus growth trade-off, RBI has decided to focus more on inflation as of now even as it has expressed concern about slowing growth. The
commentary is clearly more dovish now with RBI stating that ‘the Government’s recent actions having paved the way for a more favorable growth-
inflation dynamic’. We believe that the current steps taken by the Government on the fiscal front will give RBI the necessary cushion to carry out
rate cuts in the coming quarters. As interest rates come down, corporate investment cycle will revive leading to a bounce back in economic growth.
Monsoon rains were above average in September with the seasonal deficit narrowing to 6% and agricultural growth for the year should moderate
only slightly.
Market focus will now shift to Q2 FY13 results scheduled to start from 2nd week of October and RBI policy in October end where a rate cut is
expected. Visible improvement in quarterly earnings will help sustain this rally. In the next few months, we might see both fiscal and monetary policy
working in tandem to revive growth. Investors should increase allocation to equity at every-dip. There are enough beaten down stocks in
Automobiles, banking and infra spaces which have the potential to deliver returns superior to broader markets.
8
9. Sector View
Sector Stance Remarks
.The reversal of the interest rate cycle will assist in managing asset quality better and would lead to
BFSI Overweight increase in credit growth. However, we like the private sector more than public sector due to better
management quality and higher balance sheet discipline
We prefer “discretionary consumption” beneficiaries such as Cigarettes and branded garments, as
FMCG Overweight the growth in this segment will be disproportionately higher vis-à-vis the increase in disposable
incomes.
Raw material prices have started coming down which would boost margins. Auto loans are also
Automobiles Overweight getting cheaper. We are more bullish on two-wheeler and agricultural vehicles segment due to
lesser competition and higher pricing power.
We believe in the large sized opportunity presented by Pharma sector in India. India’s strength in
generics is difficult to replicate due to quality and quantity of available skilled manpower. With the
Healthcare Neutral developed world keen to cut healthcare costs, and a vast pipeline of drugs going off-patent, Indian
pharma players are at the cusp of rapid growth. However, the government policy of putting price
control on selected drugs might cause some short term pressure on stock prices.
The significant slowdown in order inflow activity combined with high interest rates has hurt the
E&C Neutral sector. Now since the interest rate cycle has started to reverse, we have turned more constructive
on this space.
9
10. Sector View
Sector Stance Remarks
The regulatory hurdles, competitive pressures and leverage prevent any return to high profitability
Telecom Neutral levels in the short to medium term. However, incumbents have started to increase tariffs slowly and
we believe that consolidation will happen sooner than expected.
Cement industry is facing over capacity issues and lackluster demand. With regulator taking a strong
Cement Neutral
view against pricing discipline, the profits of the sector are expected to stay muted.
We like the regulated return Characteristics of this space. This space provides steady growth in
Power Utilities Neutral
earnings and decent return on capital.
With the US and European customers of Indian IT companies are struggling, Order inflows might slow
IT/ITES Underweight down in near term. Most companies are loosing pricing power due to high competitive intensity. Sharp
rupee appreciation will put pressure on margins in the near term
We would stay away from oil PSUs, due to issues of cross subsidization distorting the underlying
Energy Underweight
economics of oil exploration and refinery businesses.
Commodity prices have corrected significantly over the last few months due to concerns about growth
Metals Underweight
in China and developed parts of the world.
10
11. Debt Outlook
9.30
8.7
Yield curve 10-yr G-sec yield
8.6 8.80
8.5
8.30
8.4
(%)
(%)
8.3 7.80
8.2
8.1 7.30
8.0
6.80
7.9
14.4
15.2
10.1
11.0
11.8
12.7
13.5
16.1
16.9
17.7
18.6
19.4
0.0
0.9
1.7
2.6
3.4
4.2
5.1
5.9
6.8
7.6
8.5
9.3
• The 10-year benchmark G-sec yield fell marginally by 4 bps to 8.20%, during the month September 2012.
• The RBI kept policy rates on hold in the Mid Quarter Review on 17th September while reducing the Cash Reserve Ratio by 25bps.
This cut brought the CRR of the scheduled banks to 4.5% & it will consequently inject around Rs.17000 cr of primary liquidity
into the banking system.
• The RBI, while acknowledging the recent reform measures has highlighted the continuing risks from the elevated
inflationary pressures and the fiscal and current account deficits. The guidance has interestingly acknowledged that monetary
policy has an important role in supporting the growth revival.
• The spread on a 10 year AAA rated corporate bond decreased to 82bps on 28th Sept 2012 from 100 Bps(as on 31st Aug 2012). The
AAA Rated bonds were yielding 8.97% on 28th September 2012.
11
12. Debt Strategy
Category Outlook Details
With the policy rates remaining unchanged by RBI along with the 100 bps
SLR cut in july’12 and trend reversal of the interest rates which started with
a 50 Bps rate cut in April’12, we would recommend investment in short term
Short Tenure debt as further rate cuts are not going to be aggressive and early too. Due to
Debt liquidity pressures increasing in the market as RBI has a huge borrowing
plan, short term yields would remain higher. Short Term funds still have high
YTMs (9.5% – 10%) providing interesting investment opportunities.
Some AA and select A rated securities are very attractive at the
current yields. A similar trend can be seen in the Fixed Deposits also.
Credit Tight liquidity in the system has also contributed to widening of the
spreads making entry at current levels attractive.
With the policy rates remaining unchanged by RBI along with the 100 bps SLR
cut in july’12 and trend reversal of the interest rates which started with a 50 Bps
rate cut in April’12, and signals passive cuts in near future, we would
recommend to hold on to the current investment for a horizon of 18-24 months
Long Tenure
in Longer term papers and not to increase the exposure in the same. These,
Debt while being available at attractive yields, also provide an opportunity for Capital
appreciation due to a decrease in interest rates. Hence, these would be suitable
for both - investors who may want to stay invested for the medium term (exiting
when prices appreciate) and those who would want to lock in high yields for the
longer term.
12
13. Forex
Rupee movement vis-à-vis other currencies (M-o-M) 60
Trade balance and export-import data 0
Export Import Trade Balance (mn $) -5000
7.00% 40
5.74% -10000
6.00% 20
-15000
0 -20000
5.00% 4.47%
-20 -25000
4.00%
3.00% 2.61%
2.21%
2.00% Exports during August, 2012 were valued at US $ 22.33 bn which
1.00% was 9.74% lower than the level of US $ 24.74 bn during August,
2011. Imports during August, 2012 were valued at US $ 37.94 Bn
0.00%
representing a negative growth of 5.08% over the level of
USD GBP EURO YEN
imports valued at US $ 39.98 Bn in August, 2011 translating into a
• INR has appreciated against all major currencies. INR appreciated trade deficit of $15.24 Bn.
by 5.7%, in Aug (Appreciated by 0.15% in Aug 2012) against the US 140000
Capital Account Balance
Dollar. Rupee has appreciated against dollar since the beginning of
the calendar year by 1.1% 90000
• Growth and inflation worries in India keeps Indian currency rate 40000
under pressure. After starting July with strong gains, the rally
started to fizzle out towards the second half but ended the month
-10000 FY 10 (Q3) FY 10 (Q4) FY 11 (Q1) FY 11 (Q2) FY 11 (Q3) FY 11 (Q4) FY 12 (Q1) FY 12 (Q2)
with an appreciation.
• The projected capital account balance for Q2 FY 12 is revised
• The appreciation of rupee is seen due to the reforms taken in the from Rs. 84,400 Cr to Rs. 78,800 Cr also the Q1 figure was revised
policies and sustained softening in commodity prices, which can downwards to Rs. 99,500 Crores from Rs. 1,02,100 Crores.
in-turn lead to lowering of the Indian current account deficit. But, • We expect factors such as higher interest rates to attract more
The rupee remains sensitive to savings from abroad, depleting investments to India. Increased limits for investment by FIIs
import cover from the pool of foreign exchange reserves and the would also help in bringing in more funds though uncertainty in
huge foreign currency debt redemptions facing many Indian the global markets could prove to be a dampener.
corporates this year.
13
14. Commodities
35000
33000 Gold
31000
We continue to maintain our bullish stance on gold on a 29000
medium to longer time frame following the bond 27000
Precious purchase program of ECB and easy liquidity regime. While 25000
the gold in USD terms continue to move higher, rupee 23000
Metals denominated gold went into consolidation phase 21000
19000
following a sharp rise in rupee, thereby keeping domestic 17000
prices under the lid. Having said that, gold is entering into 15000
its seasonally best quarter and one can expect only prices
to go north. The current consolidation phase should be
used to accumulate for the long term.
140
Crude
130
120
As the central bankers across the world pumping liquidity 110
into the system, oil prices are unlikely to see any major
100
Oil & Gas fall. Combined. Oil prices are likely to be firmer after an
90
industry report showed stockpiles shrank to the lowest in
more than five months in the U.S., the world’s biggest 80
crude consumer. Expect prices to move higher. 70
60
15. Real Estate Outlook - I
Asset Classes Tier I Tier II
With new DCR regulations Mumbai market saw some confidence
coming back for investors. Rates remained at peak levels and
shows no sign of stress. The sales in many premium pockets have
Prices surged since last quarter, factors being
seen over 60% plunge. Thane and Panvel sees lot of end user
largely growth of infrastructure and young aspiring
transactions. All other prime markets like Pune, Banaglore,
first time home. Cities like Jaipur, Bhopal,
Residential Chennai, Hyderabad, NCR are seeing rate stagnancy well over 2
Trivandrum, Madurai, Lucknow, Patna, Chandigarh
quarters now. With new supply being announced every month,
highly attractive for apartments in 600-1100 sqft
the stress on sales continues. Given the overall average of these
range
markets, any project having Rs. 4000 per sqft entry point with a
good developer sees lot of interest (keeping the unit size well
under 1500 sqft)
Lease transactions are under pressure and new rate/sqft trends
Very less benchmarks available but the rents are
getting established in all major IT driven pockets/cities. Mumbai
Commercial/IT growing 8-10% every year for commercial
still manages to stay afloat due to heavy investment in small
properties in Tier-II cities
office spaces from investors
15
16. Real Estate Outlook - II
Asset Classes Tier I Tier II
Still to re-cover from the 2008 shock, many malls have
been experiment grounds for retailers. The FDI is well
Hi-street rules the roost, the mall culture is repeated
awaited for re-starting the retail phenomenon in major
beaten in the Tier-2 markets and predominantly seeing a
Retail cities. 60% of the mall in India are not even 60% occupied
re-structure of plans to suit schools, hospitals, commercial
and if occupied, unable to get rent on time. Investment in
offices, call centers, super-market etc
prime mall spaces can get good returns due to opening up
of FDI.
Land has given better appreciation in these markets than
30-40 kms radius near in prime markets are becoming Tier 1, since there is a natural demand to own land
Land expensive month on month. Interest from investors has property. Also, scarcity in old locations and new upcoming
drawn lot of attention in well connected areas. areas due to infrastructure is making many invaluable land
valuable
Please Note:
Tier I* markets include Mumbai, Delhi & NCR, Bangalore, Pune, Chennai, Hyderabad and Kolkatta
Tier II* markets includes all state capitals other than the Tier I markets
The IC note is proposed to be presented every quarter
16
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The information and views presented here are prepared by Karvy Private Wealth(a division of Karvy Stock Broking Limited) or other Karvy Group
companies. The information contained herein is based on our analysis and upon sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the
accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it.
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