2. Contents
Index Page No.
Economic Update 4
Equity Outlook 8
Debt Outlook 11
Forex 13
Commodities 14
Real Estate 15
2
3. From the Desk of the CIO…
Dear Investor,
September is likely to be a decisive month as regards investor sentiment as do not expect a QE announcement to be very likely.
well as broad equity market direction. This is owing to the three monetary
A very positive development in recent weeks has been a finance ministry-
policy “events” – RBI monetary policy announcement, US Fed stand on QE-
driven top-down “directed” transmission of earlier repo rate cuts made by
3 and ECB’s monetary policy meeting. Over last few weeks, investors
RBI into lower cost of loans extended by banks. This helps to correct the
globally have come to hope positive outcomes from the second and third
unusual divergence which had developed between some monetary easing
while the Indian investors have started to assume no change in RBI’s
– which RBI did do earlier this year – and almost no change in cost of credit
hawkish stance as regards the first.
for the real economy – which was because banks held their base rates
We expect these three “events” to have very different degrees of impact nearly unchanged through this monetary easing. Now that the finance
on Indian equity and debt markets. The RBI policy announcement is likely ministry has forced some of the monetary easing into the banking system,
to be least influential – largely owing the widespread expectation of no we may expect some delayed positive influence on infrastructure spending
repo rate cut. ECB policy is likely to somewhat more influential – to the and automobile sales, and potentially end-user driven real estate
extent that it is widely believed to be at least incrementally useful in transactions. That might help boost the sagging growth momentum.
resolving the sovereign debt crisis in Eurozone. We expect a mildly positive
This does open up a very interesting debate though – if banks are reluctant
influence on Indian equity markets from the ECB meeting. The Fed
to lend at lower interest rates, that was probably because their credit
announcement of QE-3, if it does happen, is likely to be a massive
growth was satisfactory at the earlier lending rates. This is also borne out
sentiment and liquidity boost to all risk assets including Indian equities.
by the deposit and credit growth numbers through last few months. If that
Also, owing to at least some anticipation having already been built into
is the case, it remains to be seen if the lower cost of credit brought about
global investors’ calculation as regards this, a decisive lack of anything like a
by finance ministry intervention would increase inflationary pressure. If so,
QE would also lead to a mild dampening of sentiment, leading potentially
RBI’s cautious stance on interest rates would not be incorrect.
to a mild correction. As we highlighted in the last month’s newsletter, we
“Advisory services are provided through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. (PMS) having SEBI Registration No: INP000001512. Investments are subject to market risks. Please read the disclaimer on slide no.18”
4. Economic Update - Snapshot of
Key Markets
120 Sensex Nifty S&P 500 Nikkei 225
As on 31st Change over Change over 115
110
Aug 2012 last month last year 105
100
BSE Sensex 17429 1.1% 4.5% 95
90
85
Equity S&P Nifty 5258 0.6% 5.1%
Markets S&P 500 1406 2.0% 16.0% 10 yr Gsec
9.30
Nikkei 225 8839 1.7% (1.3%) 8.80
8.30
7.80
7.30
10-yr G-Sec Yield 8.24% (1 bps) (8 bps) 6.80
Debt Markets Call Markets 7.95% (8 bps) (7 bps)
32000
Fixed Deposit* 9.00% 0 bps (25 bps) 30000 Gold
28000
26000
24000
RICI Index 3813 4.8% (5.2%) 22000
Commodity
Gold (`/10gm) 30735 2.8% 14.8%
Markets
60
Crude Oil ($/bbl) 112.6 6.3% (2.6%) `/$
55
50
45
Forex Rupee/Dollar 55.7 0.2% (17.4%)
40
Markets Yen/Dollar 78.6 (0.4%) (2.4%)
• Indicates SBI one-year FD 4
•New 10 Year benchmark paper(8.15%, 2022 Maturity) was listed in the month of June, the 1 year yield is compared to the earlier benchmark(2021 Maturity)
5. Economy Update - Global
• Gross domestic product expanded at a 1.7% annual rate in the second quarter. Industrial production
increased 0.6% in July after a 0.1% gain in June, offering more hope the economy was improving after
growth slowed in the second quarter
US
• The US unemployment rate increased to 8.3% in month of July, slightly higher than 8.2% in June. Gross
domestic product expanded at a 1.5% annual rate between April and June, the weakest pace of growth
since the third quarter of 2011.
• Markit's final PMI was 45.1, above July's three-year low of 44.0. However, the figure was the 13th month
in a row that it was below the 50 mark that indicates growth. The PMI has now signalled contraction for
Europe 12 consecutive months.
• The 17-nation euro zone contracted by 0.2% on the quarter.
• Euro zone inflation held steady at 2.4% in July - just above the ECB's target of close to but below 2%.
• The Markit/JMMA Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to a seasonally adjusted
47.7 in August from 47.9 in July. Japanese manufacturing production declined for a Third successive
Japan month in August, and at an accelerated rate.
• The inflation rate in Japan was recorded at -0.40% in July of 2012, which was at -0.2% in the month of
June 2012.
• The HSBC Flash China manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) - a preliminary read-out that
provides an early peek at data for August - fell to 47.8 this month, its lowest level since November and
Emerging well down from July's final figure of 49.3.
economies • India's wholesale price index (WPI) Inflation dropped to 6.87% in July from 7.25% in June as domestic
petrol and vegetable prices fell in July & consumer price inflation slowed slightly in July to 9.86% lower
than 10.02% in June.
5
6. Economy Outlook - Domestic
10.0% • India's economic growth fell below the psychologically
8.0% IIP
significant 6% level for the Second consecutive time in last 3
6.0%
4.0% years, signalling that country’s slowdown is deepening and
2.0% affecting all sectors of the economy. GDP marginally grew by 2
0.0% bps when compared with the Last quarter of FY 12 reading of
-2.0%
-4.0%
5.3%. Sharp falls in the manufacturing & Agriculture sectors
-6.0% have led to India’s GDP growing only at 5.5% as compared to
Dec 11
Dec 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
Jun 11
Aug 11
Aug 11
Sep 11
Sep 11
Feb 12
Feb 12
Mar 12
Mar 12
May 12
May 12
May 12
Jul 11
Jul 11
Oct 11
Oct 11
Nov 11
Nov 11
Nov 11
Apr 12
Apr 12
Jan 12
Jan 12 7.7% growth a year earlier.
• India's industrial output fell for the third time in four months in • While the deceleration in the overall economy is apparent
June. India's industrial production has contracted 1.8% during June across all industry groups, the construction sector has seen a
2012 compared with 2.5% growth in May 2012. The cumulative sharp year-on-year growth of 10.9% in the June quarter, which
growth for the period April‐June 2012‐13 stood at ‐0.1% against is a five-year high. This has also driven demand for steel and
6.9% recorded in the corresponding period of the previous yea cement. The activities which gained substantially in this quarter
r. IIP grew by 8.8% a year earlier in June 2011. The May’12 IIP has compared to a year-ago were ‘Financing, insurance, real estate
been revised to 2.5% from earlier estimate of 2.4%. and business services’ at 10.84% and ‘Community, social
and personal services’ at 7.92%.
9.0
• This was mainly due to sharp fall of 27.9% in capital goods & a 8.4 8.3
slump in manufacturing. Manufacturing, which constitutes about 7.8 7.7
8.0 GDP growth
76% of industrial production, shrank an annual 3.2% from a year 6.9
7.0
earlier. 14 out of the 22 industry groups have reported positive
6.1
growth on year-on-year basis. 6.0 5.5
5.3
• Mining reported a growth of 0.6% after prolonged contraction 5.0
for a year on the back of series of bans in various states
4.0
following illegal mining activities. Electricity surprisingly rose by
FY11(Q2) FY11(Q3) FY11(Q4) FY12(Q1) FY12(Q2) FY12(Q3) FY12(Q4) FY13(Q1)
8.80% y-o-y from 5.90% y-o-y in the previous month. 6
7. Economic Outlook - Domestic
Growth in credit & deposits of SCBs
25.0% The annual rate of inflation, based on monthly WPI
23.0% Bank Credit Aggregate Deposits (Wholesale Price Index), stood at 6.87% for the month of
21.0% July, 2012 as compared to 7.25% for the previous month and
19.0% 9.36% during the corresponding month of the previous year.
17.0%
15.0% The Food inflation, which plays a major role in influencing
13.0% the headline number, grew at 10.06% in July against 10.81%
11.0% in June. The index for ‘Food Articles’ group rose by 1.4% to
9.0% 212.2 from 209.2 for the previous month due to higher prices
7.0% of certain food items. the Core inflation is estimated to have
5.0% inched up to 5.44% from 4.9% in June.
India's new consumer inflation rate, based on the all-India
General Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Combined) declined
As on 27th July 2012, Bank credits grew by 17.4% on a Y-o-Y basis slightly to 9.86% in July 2012. Based on the Consumer Price
which is 189 Bps lower than the growth witnessed in July 2011 Index (CPI), the inflation for June was revised downwards to
(i.e. 19.3%). Aggregate deposits on a Y-o-Y basis grew at 13.9%, 9.93% from the provisional estimate of 10.02%
viz-a viz a growth of 18.1% in July 2011.
10.0%
Normally, banks try to make their balance sheet stronger before 9.5%
Wholesale Price Index
9.0%
March 31, and meet their targets, and so there was a spurt in
8.5%
short-term deposits and advances, post that there has been a 8.0%
decline in both the months. 7.5%
7.0%
On 31st July 2012, Reserve Bank of India kept the key policy rates 6.5%
unchanged and cut the Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR) by 100 bps 6.0%
to 23%, as the primary focus of policy remained on inflation
control in order to secure a sustainable growth path over the
medium-term
* End of period figures 7
8. Equity Outlook
Global equity markets continued to be positively biased in anticipation of further monetary easing from European central bank and US
Fed. In the month of August, FIIs brought over Rs. 8,000 crores in Indian Equity Markets taking the calendar year till date (CYTD) number
to 65000 crores. Nifty crossed the 5,400 mark but couldn’t sustain it because of profit booking. Markets await positive policy action and
reforms announcements by the central government.
After a very turbulent CY11 in which nifty corrected 24%, Indian equity markets have bounced back this year with a 14% return on CYTD
basis. In last six months, sectors like consumer, healthcare and private sector banking have done quite well with robust earnings growth
and double digit stock price gains.
India's GDP for first quarter grew by 5.5% which was in line with market expectations, driven by a rebound in construction and financial
services. We believe that growth might have bottomed out this quarter. Monsoon rains continued to pick up momentum with the
seasonal deficit narrowing to 12% and agricultural growth for the year should moderate only slightly.
With Indian government expected to raise petrol and diesel prices very soon, pressure on fiscal side should ease off. This should also
give some comfort to RBI when it carries out the mid-quarterly monetary policy review on 17th September. We are expecting a 25bps
cut in repo rate in this policy. As interest rates come down, corporate investment cycle will revive leading to a bounce back in economic
growth.
The inflation number for the month of July came in at 6.9%. We expect inflation to stay around 7% for this fiscal thus giving the
necessary comfort to RBI to carry out the required monetary easing
We believe that macro-economic environment should stabilize going forward before growth starts trending up by year end. While
headlines remain weak, markets continue to trade at attractive valuations with the worst behind us. We believe cautiousness in the near
term should be used to accumulate quality stocks with a slightly longer-term view
8
9. Sector View
Sector Stance Remarks
We believe in the large sized opportunity presented by Pharma sector in India. India’s strength in
generics is difficult to replicate due to quality and quantity of available skilled manpower. With the
Healthcare Overweight developed world keen to cut healthcare costs, and a vast pipeline of drugs going off-patent, Indian
Pharma players are at the cusp of rapid growth. We would bet on the opportunity in Generics and
CRAMS space
.The reversal of the interest rate cycle will assist in managing asset quality better and would lead to
BFSI Overweight increase in credit growth. However, we like the private sector more than public sector due to better
management quality and higher balance sheet discipline
We prefer “discretionary consumption” beneficiaries such as Cigarettes and branded garments, as
FMCG Overweight the growth in this segment will be disproportionately higher vis-à-vis the increase in disposable
incomes.
The regulatory hurdles, competitive pressures and leverage prevent any return to high profitability
Telecom Neutral levels in the short to medium term. However, incumbents have started to increase tariffs slowly
and we believe that consolidation will happen sooner than expected.
The significant slowdown in order inflow activity combined with high interest rates has hurt the
E&C Neutral sector. Now since the interest rate cycle has started to reverse, we have turned more constructive
on this space.
9
10. Sector View
Sector Stance Remarks
Raw material prices have started coming down which would boost margins. We are more bullish on
Automobiles Neutral
two-wheeler and agricultural vehicles segment due to lesser competition and higher pricing power.
Cement industry is facing over capacity issues and lackluster demand. With regulator taking a strong
Cement Neutral
view against pricing discipline, the profits of the sector are expected to stay muted.
We like the regulated return Characteristics of this space. This space provides steady growth in
Power Utilities Neutral
earnings and decent return on capital.
We would stay away from oil PSUs, due to issues of cross subsidization distorting the underlying
Energy Underweight
economics of oil exploration and refinery businesses.
Commodity prices have corrected significantly over the last few months due to concerns about growth
Metals Underweight
in China and developed parts of the world.
With the US and European customers of Indian IT companies are struggling, Order inflows might slow
IT/ITES Underweight
down in near term. Most companies are loosing pricing power due to high competitive intensity.
10
11. Debt Outlook
9.0
8.8
Yield curve 9.30
10-yr G-sec yield
8.80
8.6
8.4
(%)
(%)
8.30
8.2 7.80
8.0
7.30
7.8
6.80
7.6
0.0
0.8
1.6
2.4
3.2
4.0
4.9
5.7
6.5
7.3
8.1
8.9
9.7
10.5
11.3
12.1
12.9
13.7
14.5
15.3
16.1
16.9
17.7
18.5
19.4
• The 10-year benchmark G-sec yield fell marginally by 1 bps to 8.24%, during the month August 2012.
• In G-sec auction, RBI auctioned 4 G-Sec (Rs. 16,000 cr) -namely -8.19% GS 2020 (Rs. 4000 cr), 8.33% GS 2026 (Rs. 7000 cr),
8.28% GS 2032 (Rs, 2000 cr) and 8.83% GS 2041 (Rs. 2000 cr) with cut-off yield of 8.34%, 8.40%, 8.58% and 8.62%
respectively.
• The spread a 10 year AAA rated corporate bond spread marginally decreased to 100 Bps (31st August 2012) from 102 bps
(31st July 2012). The AAA Rated bonds were yielding 9.24% on 31st August 2012.
12
12. Debt Strategy
Category Outlook Details
With the policy rates remaining unchanged by RBI along with the 100 bps
SLR cut in july’12 and trend reversal of the interest rates which started with
a 50 Bps rate cut in April’12, we would recommend investment in short term
Short Tenure debt as further rate cuts are not going to be aggressive and early too. Due to
Debt liquidity pressures increasing in the market as RBI has a huge borrowing
plan, short term yields would remain higher. Short Term funds still have high
YTMs (9.5% – 10%) providing interesting investment opportunities.
Some AA and select A rated securities are very attractive at the
current yields. A similar trend can be seen in the Fixed Deposits also.
Credit Tight liquidity in the system has also contributed to widening of the
spreads making entry at current levels attractive.
With the policy rates remaining unchanged by RBI along with the 100 bps SLR
cut in july’12 and trend reversal of the interest rates which started with a 50 Bps
rate cut in April’12, and signals passive cuts in near future, we would
recommend to hold on to the current investment for a horizon of 18-24 months
Long Tenure
in Longer term papers and not to increase the exposure in the same. These,
Debt while being available at attractive yields, also provide an opportunity for Capital
appreciation due to a decrease in interest rates. Hence, these would be suitable
for both - investors who may want to stay invested for the medium term (exiting
when prices appreciate) and those who would want to lock in high yields for the
longer term.
13
13. Forex
Rupee movement vis-à-vis other currencies (M-o-M) 100 Trade balance and export-import data 0
80 -5000
1.00% 60
Export Import Trade Balance (mn $)
-10000
0.44% 40
0.50% 20
-15000
0.15%
0 -20000
0.00% -20 -25000
-0.50% -0.32%
-1.00% • Exports during July, 2012 were valued at US $ 22.44 bn which
was 14.80% lower than the level of US $ 26.34 bn during July,
-1.50% 2011. Imports during July, 2012 were valued at US $ 37.94 Bn
-2.00% -1.73% representing a negative growth of 7.61% over the level of
USD GBP EURO YEN imports valued at US $ 41.06 Bn in July, 2011 translating into a
trade deficit of $15.49 Bn.
140000
Capital Account Balance
• INR has appreciated against USD & Japanese Yen, whereas it
witnessed a depreciation against GBP & Euro. INR appreciated 90000
by 0.15%, in Aug (Appreciated by 0.9% in July 2012) against the
US Dollar. But, since the beginning of the calendar year it has
40000
depreciated by 4.4%
• Growth and inflation worries in India keeps Indian currency rate -10000 FY 10 (Q3) FY 10 (Q4) FY 11 (Q1) FY 11 (Q2) FY 11 (Q3) FY 11 (Q4) FY 12 (Q1) FY 12 (Q2)
under pressure. After starting July with strong gains, the rally • The projected capital account balance for Q2 FY 12 is revised
started to fizzle out towards the second half but ended the from Rs. 84,400 Cr to Rs. 78,800 Cr also the Q1 figure was
month with an appreciation. revised downwards to Rs. 99,500 Crores from Rs. 1,02,100
Crores.
• The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been taking a series of steps • We expect factors such as higher interest rates to attract more
to rein in the currency’s loss, including curbing banks’ abilities investments to India. Increased limits for investment by FIIs
to speculate in the currency market since last two months. The would also help in bringing in more funds though uncertainty
central bank sold at least $20 billion to stabilize the currency. in the global markets could prove to be a dampener.
14
14. Commodities
32000
31000
Gold
We continue to maintain our bullish stance on gold. The 30000
bond purchase program of ECB is viewed as a big positive 29000
Precious steps supporting prices amid the German Constitutional
28000
Court verdict awaited on the status of ESM. This shall
Metals bound to impact the currency markets. Having said that, 27000
gold is entering into its seasonally best quarter and one 26000
can expect only prices to go north. 25000
24000
140
130
Crude
As the central bankers across the world pumping liquidity
into the system, oil prices are unlikely to see any major 120
fall. Combined with this is the refinery shutdowns due to
Oil & Gas hurricane Issac triggering a reduction in supplies. Oil 110
prices are likely to be firmer after an industry report
100
showed stockpiles shrank to the lowest in more than five
months in the U.S., the world’s biggest crude consumer.
90
Expect prices to move higher.
80
15. Real Estate Outlook - I
Asset Classes Tier I Tier II
With new DCR regulations Mumbai market saw some confidence
coming back for investors. Rates remained at peak levels and
shows no sign of stress. The sales in many premium pockets have
Prices surged since last quarter, factors being
seen over 60% plunge. Thane and Panvel sees lot of end user
largely growth of infrastructure and young aspiring
transactions. All other prime markets like Pune, Banaglore,
first time home. Cities like Jaipur, Bhopal,
Residential Chennai, Hyderabad, NCR are seeing rate stagnancy well over 2
Trivandrum, Madurai, Lucknow, Patna, Chandigarh
quarters now. With new supply being announced every month,
highly attractive for apartments in 600-1100 sqft
the stress on sales continues. Given the overall average of these
range
markets, any project having Rs. 4000 per sqft entry point with a
good developer sees lot of interest (keeping the unit size well
under 1500 sqft)
Lease transactions are under pressure and new rate/sqft trends
Very less benchmarks available but the rents are
getting established in all major IT driven pockets/cities. Mumbai
Commercial/IT growing 8-10% every year for commercial
still manages to stay afloat due to heavy investment in small
properties in Tier-II cities
office spaces from investors
15
16. Real Estate Outlook - II
Asset Classes Tier I Tier II
Still to re-cover from the 2008 shock, many malls have
been experiment grounds for retailers. The FDI is well
Hi-street rules the roost, the mall culture is repeated
awaited for re-starting the retail phenomenon in major
beaten in the Tier-2 markets and predominantly seeing a
Retail cities. 60% of the mall in India are not even 60% occupied
re-structure of plans to suit schools, hospitals, commercial
and if occupied, unable to get rent on time. Investment in
offices, call centers, super-market etc
prime mall spaces can get good returns due to opening up
of FDI.
Land has given better appreciation in these markets than
30-40 kms radius near in prime markets are becoming Tier 1, since there is a natural demand to own land
Land expensive month on month. Interest from investors has property. Also, scarcity in old locations and new upcoming
drawn lot of attention in well connected areas. areas due to infrastructure is making many invaluable land
valuable
Please Note:
Tier I* markets include Mumbai, Delhi & NCR, Bangalore, Pune, Chennai, Hyderabad and Kolkatta
Tier II* markets includes all state capitals other than the Tier I markets
The IC note is proposed to be presented every quarter
16
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Open Architecture – Widest array of products
We are an open-architecture firm at two levels – asset class level and product level :
• Offering COMPREHENSIVE choice of investing across all asset classes
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Intensive Research
We closely track the historical performance across asset classes, sub-asset classes and product providers to identify, evaluate and
recommend investment products (KPW’s or third-party). We have our own proprietary methodology for evaluating products; for
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truly exceptional performers to be added to your portfolio
Honest, unbiased advise
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broking houses), who are doing wealth management. Neither do we have exclusive tie-up with any single insurance company like
all banks do.
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A talented team of leaders with global and Indian experience, having a unique blend of backgrounds of wealth management,
private equity, strategy consulting and building businesses powers Karvy Private Wealth and its operations.
18
18. Disclaimer
The information and views presented here are prepared by Karvy Private Wealth(a division of Karvy Stock Broking Limited) or other Karvy Group
companies. The information contained herein is based on our analysis and upon sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the
accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it.
The investments discussed or recommended here may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on
their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advice, as they believe necessary. While acting upon any
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