1. Provide comprehensive incentives such as significantly increasing tax deductions for children, offering universal childcare services, and extending maternity leave to make it easier for parents to have and care for children.
2. Broaden family planning guidance from solely focusing on birth control to also promoting healthy families and raising awareness of population aging issues to encourage thoughtful consideration of childbearing.
3. Launch a slogan creation competition to understand current expectations around childbearing and develop messaging that resonates with today's needs, whether encouraging more births or promoting self-sufficiency with fewer or no children.
2. Content
1. “Population aging” in Hong Kong
2. Causes of “Aging population”
3. Induced economic challenges of aging
population
Medical
Social welfare
The overall economic prospect
4. Solution?-----Conflicting views
5. Our suggestions
3.
4. Definition of Population Aging
According to World Health Organization
(WHO):
1. When population aged 65 or above ≥ 7% of the total
population
2. When population aged 65 or above ≥ 14% of the total
population
5. Current Situation in HK
According to “The Profile of Older Persons, 2006”
published by Census and Statistics
Department:
“Over the past 45 years, the proportion of older
persons (aged 65 or above) in the total
population rises from 2.8% in 1961 to 12.4% in
2006.”
Hyper-
Aging Aged
aged
society society
society
6. Future Population Trend in HK
Refer to the “Projection of Population Distribution”
and “Hong Kong Population Projection” published by
Census and Statistics Department:
“In 2019, population of older persons will jumped
from 890,000 in 2009 to 1,320,000 in 2019 (13% to
17.2%)”
“In 2039, the proportion of the population aged 65
and over is projected to rise markedly from 13% in
2009
to 28% in 2039”
7.
8. Two main factors (1)
1. Low birth rate
Higher divorce rate
Higher child-raising cost
Changed mindset (family individual)
Extended first birth age
Increased woman participation in labour market
Lower infant mortality
9. Two main factors (2)
2. Long life span
Improved health care services
Improved social welfare
Improved social condition
10.
11. Social welfare challenges
Medical and Health Services for elderly
1. Community Support Services for the
Elderly
2. Residential Care Services for the Elderly
3. Old Age Allowance
4. Health Care Voucher
5. Public Housing
6. Senior Citizen Residences Scheme
12. 2012–13 Government expenditure
Government expenditure for 2012–13: $44
billion ,about 30% used for elderly
Allocate $900 million to improve quality of
250 district elderly community centers
Additional 1,000 subsidized residential
care places
Public transport concessions for the
elderly and eligible people
13. Services for Elders
In the 2012-13 Buget, Financial provision
for services for Elders has increased for
5%($170.8m to $ 179.4m)
Threes new services
1. Enhanced Bought Place Scheme
2. Discharge Support Programme for
Elderly Patients
3. The pilot scheme
14. Old Age Allowance
HKD 1,090 /month
Expenditure about 3.9 billions in 2008, 4.4
billions in 2014-15 in prediction
In 2033, 2.1 millions of elderly people,
about 28% of total population
Money for Comprehensive Social Security
Assistance and Old Age Allowance
15. Housing Burden
67% of total population of elderly live in
public housing in 2010
Senior Citizen Residences Scheme is
carried out because of the increasing need
of house.
With the increasing land price, the
economic challenge would be really hard
for government
16. Brief Summary
The rate of increasing number of aging
citizen keep accelerating
With the increasing need of Support
Services , Old Age Allowance, Health Care
Voucher, the money use for elderly may be
doubled or tripled.
The tax may not afford the burden of these
needs.
17. Medical
Expenditure of Hospital Authority
Reasons that population aging cause medical expense
increase
└ Chronic disease↑
└ In-patients Staying↑(病人日數)
Health Care Voucher
18. Expenditure of Hospital Authority
90% of incomes comes from government
HKD39.9 billion 2011-2012 for Medical (17% of recurrent Government
expenditure, 27% in 2033)
Expenditure prediction
2011 - 2012 39.9 billion
2012 - 2013 45.0 billion (+8%)
2032 - 2033 186.6 billion (+367.6%)
Two main Expenditure (09-10)
Staff costs (26.7 Billion, about 73%)
Drugs + Medical supplies and equipment (HKD4.4 Billion, About
12%)
Source: Hospital Authority Statistical Report
19. Reasons that population aging cause
medical expense increase
• The amount of the drugs expands have obvious increase.
(2012 – 2013 Inject $10 billion into the Samaritan Fund )
• About 90% of the old people rely on the public medical
service (50% of Hospital Authority expense)
• 72% old people are Chronic Illness
• Chronic disease
• Drugs Expensive (Samaritan Fund for Drug Items)
• Number of In-patients Staying about 50% is aged 65↑
• Old people have increased and will have a great increase
in year 2019 (13% to 17.2%)
20. Health Care Voucher
Aims
To provide financial assistance for the elderly to choose
the most suitable medical service. ($250@year, near 0.5
billion/year) (2012-1-1 $500@year, doubled)
Requirements
Age 70↑, have HKSAR ID Card
Definite date
From 09-1-1 to 11-12-31 (First trial)
From 12-1-1 to 14-12-31 (Second trial)
22. Burden on next generation
In 2033, the elderly (aged >65) will
account for 27% of total population Cf.
13.2% currently
Source: Census and Statistics
Department
Increase proportion of aged pop. ( retired)
Increase burden of working pop.
( nearly every 4 labours support 1 elderly
ppl.)
23. Slow down in economic growth
Gross domestic product (GDP) , a main
measure of level of production (econ.
growth) of a region.
Labour population in 1996, 2001 and 2006 - By Age Group
1996 2001 2006
Age No. % No. % No. %
15 - 24 462 885 14.5 444 244 12.9 433 746 12.1
25 - 34 1 011 015 31.8 953 725 27.7 912 351 25.5
35 - 44 910 170 28.6 1 066 020 31.0 999 188 28.0
45 - 54 504 866 15.9 701 551 20.4 878 393 24.6
55 - 64 232 173 7.3 218 462 6.4 288 960 8.1
65+ 61 388 1.9 53 990 1.6 59 746 1.7
Total 3 182 497 100.0 3 437 992 100.0 3 572 384 100.0
Source: Census and Statistics Department
24. GDP growth greatly depend on working
population
proportion of elderly people
Relative in working population
Slowdown in GDP growth
E.g. During 2025-2050, GDP growth in USA,
Japan and Europe is expected to fall by
1.5%, 0.6% and 0.5% respectively source: John
Mauldin – www.hjej.com
25. Shrinking tax revenue
proportion of elderly
relative in working population
in salary tax revenue
人口金字塔
Population Pyramid
二零零一年年中
年齡組別 (基準) 二零一六年年中 年齡組別 二零三一年年中
Mid-2001 年齡組別 Mid-2031
Age group (Base) Age group Mid-2016 Age group
85+ 85+
85+ 男性 女性 男性 女性 男性 女性
Male Female 80-84 Male Female 80-84 Male Female
80-84
75-79 75-79
75-79
70-74 70-74
70-74
65-69 65-69
65-69
60-64 60-64
60-64
55-59 55-59
55-59
50-54 50-54
50-54
45-49 45-49
45-49
40-44 40-44
40-44
35-39 35-39
35-39
30-34 30-34
30-34
25-29 25-29
25-29
20-24 20-24
20-24
15-19 15-19
15-19
10-14 10-14
10-14
5-9 5-9
5-9
0-4 0-4
0-4
400 300 200 100 0 100 200 300 400 400 300 200 100 0 100 200 300 400 400 300 200 100 0 100 200 300 400
千人 千人 千人
Thousand persons Thousand persons Thousand persons
外籍家庭傭工
Foreign domestic helpers
26. Tax revenue as the base of public cost
(e.g social welfare for the elderly,
infrastructure…)
Example: ~ 90% operation cost of the public
hospitals is subsidised by SAR
government Source: Hospital Authority Statistical Report 2009
– 2010
aged population demand for long-
term care service gov. expenditure
In the long run, gov. expenditure may keep
falling short of its revenue
27.
28. 1. Broaden the tax base by
introducing GST
Purpose: to maintain budget balance and the quality of
public elderly services
Government supports the idea
In 2006, Financial Secretary Henry Tang Ying Yen said “……..
the rapid ageing of Hong Kong's population will be accompanied by
higher spending pressures on healthcare and services for the aged……..
the introduction of a GST (Goods and Service Tax) is a viable option for
Hong Kong. This would secure the long-term sustainability of our
revenue base and our capacity to meet public expenditure needs.”
29. 1. Broaden the tax base
However, The Democratic Party(民主黨), League of Social
Democrats (社民連), the tourism and retailing sector all
oppose the idea because
- The living of citizens will become more difficult
- GST will degrade the business environment of HK
31. 2. Encourage birth
The Democratic Party and The Family Planning
Association of Hong Kong do not support the idea
Member of The Democratic Party, Lo Chi Kwong said,
“…….Population aging is an irreversible progress. Therefore, it is
better for us to focus on solving the accompanied economic
challenges rather than increasing the birth rate.” (Suggestions of The
Democratic Party on population policy, 2006)
The Family Planning Association of Hong Kong:
Having children or not is a personal decision
Quality > Quantity
36. 5. Attract youthful immigrants
Purpose: young population, maintain or even enhance
quality of workforce market
competitiveness
Gov. support the idea:
first introduced Quality Migrant Admission Scheme in
2006, further modification has been made in 2007
Nicole Alpert: a research associate for The Lion Rock Institute
1. “The Lion Rock study makes an important point: ``For resource-poor city-
states like Hong Kong, Singapore, Dubai and Shenzhen, human resources are
probably the only resource that can render their economic growth sustainable.”
2. “Even with immigration, we cannot “escape” an aging population and its
transformation of society - migrants age too - but open immigration policies will
37. Opposing views
Mr. Ma Kwok-ming, Lingnan University part time lecturer
Immigration of mainland talents more intense competition among
work force
Helen Chan Wing-mui, Assistant Director of Immigration
“We want to protect our local graduates, not increase competition for them.”
Leslie Kwoh, The Standard
“Illustrating the disadvantages of such an arrangement, however, the
scheme has come under fire in recent months for allowing thousands of foreign
workers to come into Australia at below-market rates while many local
graduates still struggle to find work.”
38. Universal Retirement Protection
http://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/200604/26/P200604260315.htm
Offender:
government -- 現時偏向反對 (2008)
以下為Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food York
Chow Yat-ngok四月二十六日在立法會會議上就「全民退
休保障」動議辯論的發言(partial): 全民退休計劃經驗證明是
有一定的原則及持續的問題,需要考慮是否可以維持。我們
對這個建議有很大的保留,政府亦不會貿貿然推行全民退休
保障,對這課題,我希望議員小心處理。
http://www.takungpao.com/opinion/takungpao/2011-04-
學者 29/762779-2.html
(城市大學副教授,博士--曾淵滄, Dept of Economics
HKUST 雷鼎鳴 Francis T Lui) http://francis-lui.blogspot.com/2011/04/blog
Supporter:
Alliance for Universal Pensions, League of People
Power Albert Wai-yip Chan , League of Social
Democrats Kwok-hung Leung…
http://www.inmediahk.net/taxonomy/term/500644/0
39. Our suggestions
1) Import foreign medical staff
2) Increase places of tertiary education
3) Provide more incentives to encourage
parenthood
4) Encourage retirement in Mainland China
5) Enhance open immigration policy
6) Well allocation of resources
40. 1. Import foreign medical staff
Follow our Asian neighbour – Singapore
import of foreign medical servants (e.g.
nurses, health assistants or even doctors)
Reduce burden of local medical staff in
public hospitals
Maintain quality of public medical service
41. 2. Increase places of tertiary
education
places of government-funded tertiary
education programmes ( esp. degree
prog.)
Maintain and enhance competitiveness of
local workforce amid contemporary
knowledge-based economy
Well- educated labours are essential
human resources in H.K. !!!
42. 3. Provide more incentives to
encourage parenthood
Offer more economic lure to encourage
citizens to give birth to babies
one-off tax allowance of new born babies
family
continuous subsidy for children-raising
setting up babies care centers… etc.
Fertility rate
43. 5. Enhance open immigration policy
Focus on attracting relatively young
workforce from worldwide
By focusing on age limit – let say introduce
bonus points in 15-30 age category
By offering incentives to young
immigrants-e.g. housing allowance,
Encourage them to settle down ( Morgan
as an successful case)
44. Babies of non-local parents
Government: Automatically giving babies of non-local
parents permanent residency
A spokesman for the Labour and Welfare Bureau: By
2018, Hong Kong will have about 300,000 postwar baby
boomers who have retired. Many of these vacancies will
not be filled as the city's birth rate has been decreasing at
an increasingly alarming speed since the 1970s.
A government manpower study: Hong Kong's workforce
will be too small to power its economic growth by 2018
because of an ageing population,
45. Babies of non-local parents
Citizens: oppose the idea
Non-local parents are not tax payer but they
Occupy the resources of Hong Kong Citizens
Culture conflict between Citizens and people
from mainland China
Chance of Babies of non-local parents taking
their parents to come to HK in many years later
46. Well Allocation of resources
Joyous Living scheme waste of
resources
Provide its residents with a relaxed
ambience, continuing professional
healthcare and skilled care services
Target customers : Rich elderly
Over ten thousand management expenses
/ per month
More resources should be used for helping
the poor old people.
47. Extend the retirement age
Extend the entire age from 65 to 70
70
Labour Force Participation Rate
64.3
62.8 61.4
60
50
percentage
40
30
20
14.1
9.8
10 7.2
0
1991 1996 2001
Older Persons Whole Population
Source: Elderly Commission
48. Extend the retirement age
USA - being gradually raised to 67 years
old
Japan – 69 years old
Korea - 67 years old
Flexible or part-time work arrangements
for older persons
Retire age depends on work type
Would not block the advancement of
younger workers, while retaining valuable
insight and expertise for the employer
Editor's Notes
1Home Help Service (HHS), Holiday Centre for the Elderly 2. Homes for the elderly, Nursing Homes
strengthening the support for infirm and demented elders, increasing the amount of supplements for residential care homes for demented elderly, 32billion for elderly in 2033
The pilot scheme is one of the latest initiatives to assist senior citizens to continue to live in the community
Clip 2香港的人口正不斷老化,根據2006年中期人口統計 (Census and Statistics Department),65歲以上的長者佔全港人口的12.5% (86萬人),預計至2016年及2033年,將會分別增加至佔總人口的14% 和27% ,即逾四分之一的人口將是65歲或以上的長者
gross domestic product (GDP), total market value of the goods and services produced by a nation’s economy during a specific period of time. It includes all final goods and services—that is, those that are produced by the economic resources located in that nation regardless of their ownership and that are not resold in any form估計人口老化對佔GDP 增長比例影響所及,在2025 年至2050 年間,歐洲增長將每年減低0.5%;日本則每年減低0.6%;美國更將每年減低1.5%。 (John Mauldin - www.hkej.com)Clip 7
In 2007, salaries tax account for 23% of the total revenue collection.
Recurrent government subvention ($32,025,104,000) + Capital government subvention ($ 476,123,000) = almost 90% of total expense ($ 36, 572,241,000)Source: Hospital Authority Statistical Report 2009 - 2010
Attract quality migrants, QMAS: modification relaxing the restrictions on age limit and other prerequisites increase no. of eligible migrants
Briefly explain the quality migrant admissionschemeTalents bring about: not only offspring, but also entrepreneurship enhance competitiveness
In 2018,the birth rate cannot match with the entire rate
1Not the only way to solve the aging problem.2Although the elderly who entire in mainland china belongs to the Hong Kong Population, in economic prospect, they are not taken into account.3adpoting the policy of attracting foreign students to stay in Hk for learning purposes can also solve the aging problem.
Out team think治標不治本,way of Management expenses and health care cost needed to be paid. 理工大學應用社會科學系助理教授鍾劍華 Rich people usualyy got their own house already. And the poor old people is negected by the Housing Society.He thinks…
likely to become a necessity as the population ages increase.