The document discusses the potential for the internet to replace television, highlighting various statistics on viewership and advertising revenue for platforms like Hulu and YouTube. It presents arguments both for and against the replacement, noting bandwidth limitations and the value of professional content versus user-generated content. Ultimately, it suggests a transition is likely within the next decade, while acknowledging the ongoing appeal and resilience of traditional television.

1. Will the Internet replace television?

2. Has it superseded TV already ? link link2 Link3

3. Fey/Palin views on TV v. Online Views in millions link2

4. Unique visitors per month Hulu – 6.3 million. Ranks No. 6 You Tube – 83 million. Ranks No. 1 Link3

5. The dream: to watch… Whatever we want Whenever we want For free

6. The Internet promises… Whatever we want Whenever we want For free

7. Percentages of North American households with Internet 2005 2007 Television: 99 percent Source: Nielsen Media Research

8. Which is an important source of information? Source: Annenberg Center for the Digital Future (2008) Percent of people who name each as an important source

10. Advertising Age, June 25, 2007

12. 5.9% of U.S. Ad Spend in 2006 Something is gaining on you, TV

13. (Does not include search.) TNS Media Intelligence

14. Broadcast woes Audience fragmentation Proliferation of cable channels Competition from other media DVRs and commercial- skipping

15. A look back at the #5 TV show... Source: Nielsen Media Research 16,623,000 2008: Season Share Rating % Viewers 1994-1995 Monday Night Football 30 17.8 9.9 24,420,000 1999-2000 Friends 23 14 8.1 20,950,000 2004-2005 CSI: Miami 20 12.4 6.8 18,881,000

16. Can the Internet replace television?

17. Obstacles Feeds optimized for iPods, computers, not TVs How to connect to TVs?

18. Bandwidth Downloading a single half-hour TV show on the Web consumes more bandwidth than does receiving 200 emails a day for a full year. Downloading a single high-definition movie consumes more bandwidth than does the downloading of 35,000 web pages; it’s the equivalent of downloading 2,300 songs over Apple’s iTunes Web site. Today’s networks simply aren’t scaled for that Craig Moffett, Bernstein Research (2006)

19. Bandwidth ‘ TV is going to be TV, delivered like TV, for a long time to come. There won’t be enough bandwidth for it to be any other way.’ Mark Cuban (2006) No Moore’s Law for bandwidth

20. Vested interests Writers strike was largely over royalties from Internet distribution. Writers make more from reruns on TV. Not in the interest of cable/ISP combos.

21. Great predictions “ Radio has no future.” Lord Kelvin, physicist (c. 1897)

22. Great predictions “ Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?” Harry Warner on motion pictures with sound (1927)

23. Great predictions “ Theoretically [it] may be feasible, but I consider it an impossibility.” Lee DeForest on television (1926)

24. Will the Internet replace television?

25. Yes Internet distribution of TV programs will replace broadcast television within the next 10 years. “ The Internet will eliminate barriers to distribution.” Mike Ramsay, CEO, Tivo (2005)

26. Yes Downloads will replace TV broadcasts by 2012. ‘ [I]ncreasingly it’s going to be almost like the iPod where people download content to look at later.’ Vince Cerf, VP, Google (2008) He says bottleneck fears are “scare tactics”

27. No Will the Internet replace television? “ Part of the allure of television is freedom from choice . It is a respite from an active world.” Robinson and Godbey (1997)

28. No “ The television set has a very healthy future. I absolutely never see that going away.” -- Jason Kilar, chief operating officer…

29. Last prediction “ If anyone tells you what the television business is going to be like a decade out, they are on drugs.” --Dick Wolf, producer, Law & Order (2006)

30. Shrinking mass-media pie slices

31. Will the Internet replace television? What do you think?

32. An analyst at Screen Digest estimates: In 2008 YouTube will generate about $100m in the US, compared to about $70m at Hulu Next year both sites will generate about $180m in the US. That’s very significant because YouTube had 83m unique viewers in the US in September, while Hulu only had 6m.

33. 10 observations – Scott Karp Professional content still has A LOT more value than “user-generated content.” Legal content still has A LOT more value than illegal content. Professional content produced for analogue media is worth pennies on the dollar when distributed in the web’s commoditizing content marketplace. It probably costs a lot more than $180 million to produce the content on Hulu, which means that it’s not a standalone business.

34. 10 observations – Scott Karp TV/Video will likely follow the path of music and newspapers in suffering a dramatic decline in content value on the web. Most analogue media businesses, when fully transitioned to the web, will likely bear little resemblance to the original businesses. Google isn’t doing any better than anyone else at solving the content commoditization problem on the web.