DISCLAIMER
THIS PRESENTATION IS ALREADY OUT OF DATE




DISCLAIMER
WHAT SHAPES MEDIA LANDSCAPE…
    AND WILL CONTINUE TO
CONTENT IS KING
CONTENT IS KING
BUT EASE OF USE IS QUEEN
Apple is worth over $500B
Or more than:
- Walt Disney
- News Corp
- Time Warner
- CBS
- Viacom
Combined
Source: Bloomberg
Source: TUAW.com Sept 24, ‘10 “What 10 Years Apple Did to its Main Product”
Processor Speed
                                  Cheaper Data Storage
     Fiber Optics
                           Satellite
                                         GPS
         HDTV
                                               Flash Memory
                            Broadband
 Linux
                Wireless
                            Open Source
  WIFI                                      Touchscreen
            Cloud Computing


TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCES
WHAT’S KILLING ‘MUST SEE TV’?
Broadcasters:
                Transmitted free to the viewer over the air
                Predominately advertising driven for revenue




KEY TERMINOLOGY:
ex :




 Ad Supported Cable:
               Delivered through an in-home connection via
               a subscription model for the viewer.
               Also advertising driven, however also receive
               retransmission fees from the subscription model.
ex :




Premium Cable:
                 Delivered as above, 100% driven by
                 subscription fees to the viewer.


KEY TERMINOLOGY:
ex :                   ex :                        ex :




 Cable MSO                     Satellite            Telecom

  These are the different in-home delivery methods for
  subscription television.

  As of the end of 2011, 90% of US Households subscribe to one of
  these:
   - 56% Cable
   - 36% Satellite
   - 8% Telecom



KEY TERMINOLOGY:
Source: Parks Associates Whitepaper 2011 “Digitalsmiths”




THE EVOLUTION OF VIEWING
Source: Nielsen data




SHARE OF PRIMETIME VIEWING
8                  #4 - 24MM viewers / 16.4.0 HH rtg



    8:30                #12 - 35MM viewers / 11.7 HH rtg


                        #1 show on TV, 35MM viewers / 22.0 HH rtg

     9
                        1 in 3 TV’s tuned in at that time were
                        watching Seinfeld
                        Last season on air


                        #3 - 24MM viewers / 16.8 HH rtg
    9:30
                        Off air w/in 2 years



    10                  #2 - 30MM viewers / 20.7 HH rtg



NBC ‘MUST SEE THURSDAY’ LINEUP ‘97-’98
Debuts Jan ’99 3.5MM
viewers and averages
that for 1st season



Season 1 finale draws
5.2MM viewers



Season 2 opens Jan ‘00
to 7.6MM viewers

Source: Nielsen
By the time the Sopranos goes off air:



Averaging 9-11MM viewers



At its height popularity, ‘02 drew
13.4MM for the season premiere and is
almost outdrawing NBC on Sunday
nights

Series finale was watched by 11.9MM
Source: Nielsen
By the time the Sopranos goes off air:



21 Emmy wins including :
- 2 Best Drama
- 6 for Best Lead Actor/Actress

111 Nominations Overall

2 Peabody Awards
2007 PRIMETIME EMMYS
CABLE POST SOPRANOS
Source: Paidcontent.org Apr 26, ’12
Debuts at the Consumer
                             Electronics Show in ‘99



Debuts Jan 10, 1999 on HBO


                             Releases June ‘99
Source: Parks Associates Whitepaper 2011 “Digitalsmiths”




THE EVOLUTION OF VIEWING
Since Nielsen started measuring DVR use in
          2007, usage has doubled.

          And for those under 55 years old spend 9
          hours a month watching time shifted /
          recorded TV




DVR USE
Source: Nielsen DVR State of Media Jan ’11 for P1849, % of total DVR playback




Source: Nielsen DVR State of Media Jan ’11




DVR PLAYBACK BY HOUR
Source: Sandvine Over the Top Video From a Cable Perspective 2012 report




ONLINE TRAFFIC BY HOUR
Source: Nielsen “Who, When and How? A Closer Look at Video Game Measurement” Apr 21, ’10




XBOX USE BY HOUR
Live A18-49   Live + & 7 day
                 Rating        A18-49 Rating                      % Increase


                   2.6          3.9                                      50%




                    2.7          3.8                                      41%




                    1.2          2.3                                      92%


                                 Source: TV By the Numbers Apr 16, 2012 using Nielsen data




THE DVR EFFECT
4.50
                                                                                   3.88
               4.00
                                          3.26         3.41          3.32
               3.50
               3.00      3.26
   Average P2+ 2.50   2.61                2.98
                                                      2.62
     Rating    2.00                                                  2.42          2.30
               1.50
               1.00                       1.37                                     1.55
                                                      1.29              1.31
                          1.07
               0.50
               0.00
                       2005 / 06        2006 / 07   2007/ 08       2008 / 09     2009 / 10
                                                      Year

                                   Network Sports   Cable Sports     Broadcast Prime




LIVE SPORTS DVR PROOF
LEGACY OF NAPSTER
File sharing peer-to-peer network that
                             specialized in music




Launches   ’00, sued   Feb ‘01           July ‘01          Declares
June ’99   by          hits peak         loses             bankruptcy
           Metallica   26.4MM            appeal in         2002
                       users             lawsuit by
                                         RIAA
Source: Salon.com Apr 29, ‘03
Est Feb ‘05
Network             Content
Est Feb ‘05
                        Controlled         Agreements

              ‘06-’07                Oct ‘05



                                     ‘06-’07
               ‘07
                                     Jan ‘08


              Mar ‘08
                                     Nov ‘08


                                     Feb ‘11
              Feb ‘10
July ’07                 January ‘12

    Avg video view length    Avg video view length
    2.7 minutes              6.1 minutes

    9 billion online video   40 billion online video
    views by 134MM viewers   views by 181MM viewers




Source: Comscore




ONLINE VIEWERSHIP TRENDING UP
Source: PaidContent.org “Amazon: Bring us your kids’ and comedy shows, get $55,000” May 2, ‘12
"Change is coming. I think we are at the dawn of a strong new
                         presence of web-based programming.”

          "It is in 2012 what premium cable was in 1984, in terms of moving
                    in the way of Emmy recognition and prominence.“

                                                 -- John Leverence, senior vice president of awards for the
                                                                    Academy of Television Arts & Sciences
Source: TheWrap.com “The Emmys Grapple With a New Question: TV or Not TV” April ’12
Web 2.0


          Term used to define the current internet
          we live in now, 2nd generation from static
          HTML pages to more dynamic web that is
          better organized and based on serving web
          applications to users. Other improved
          functionality includes open communication
          with an emphasis on Web-based
          communities of users
Google Versus Facebook
                                               The Fight Over the Shift to a More Social Web


Source: Fortune “Facebook vs. Google: The battle for the future of the Web” Nov 29, ‘11
Share of
                                              Revenue:

                                                    41%


                                                    10%


                                                      5%



Source:
1.2012 IAB Internet Revenue Report
2. Emarketer “Google Edges Closer to Facebook as US Display Advertising Becomes Two-Horse Race” Feb 22, ‘12




ONLINE ADVERTISING REVENUE
A more organized
world centered around
search with Google in
      the middle
“At Google, we believe that ads are a valuable
                                  source of information — one that can connect
                                  people to the advertisers offering products,
                                  services and ideas that interest them. By making
                                  ads more relevant, and improving the connection
                                  between advertisers and our users, we can create
                                  more value for everyone. Users get more useful
                                  ads, and these more relevant ads generate higher
                                  returns for advertisers and publishers.”

                                  “Keyword advertising has been so successful
                                  because it's useful to users, advertisers and
                                  publishers — everyone's interests are aligned.”


Source: Google blog “Making ads more interesting” Mar 11, ‘09




GOOGLE’S MISSION - ADVERTISING
A more open and
   connected world,
 centered around the
   social graph with
Facebook in the middle
Source: “User Insights” by Paul Adams
Source: “User Insights” by Paul Adams
Source: Mashable “Why 2011 Will Be Defined by Social Media Democracy” Dec 1, ‘11
“Google had a built in disadvantage in social networking
             sweepstakes. It was happy to gather information about the
             intricate web of personal and professional connections
             known as the ‘social graph’ and integrate that data as signals
             in its search engine. But the basic premise of social
             networking –that personal recommendation from a friend
             was more valuable than all of human wisdom, as
             represented by Google search – was viewed with horror at
             Google. Page and Brin had started Google on the premise
             that the algorithm would provide the only answer”




Source: “In the Plex” by Steve Levy
Source: The Guardian “Web Freedom Faces Greatest Threat Ever, warns Google’s Sergey Brin” April 15, ‘12
OTHER OPPORTUNITIES OF THE SOCIAL WEB
48% of online brand mentions
involve media or marketing
materials

33% of these from TV




Source: WARC “Brand Mentioned 3Bn times a Day in US” June ‘11




HEIGHTEN IMPACT OF OTHER MEDIA
Source: Forbes “Super Bowl XLVI Social Media Audience Delivers 64 Million Impressions” Feb 21, ‘12




CO-VIEWING MOMENTS MORE IMPORTANT
Source: Twitter




CO-VIEWING MOMENTS MORE IMPORTANT
EXPAND STORYTELLING
ANOTHER PLACE TO EXPERIENCE A BRAND
DRAW INSIGHTS FROM JUST ‘LISTENING’
FEEL MORE CONNECTED TO BRANDS / STARS
425MM monthly visitors
   un-monetized by
     ad revenue
Source: Mashable Apr 9, ’12
#2 in smartphone marketshare
                                                                              behind Android with 1/3 market
                                                                              #1 in tablet marketshare

                      1st Iphone release 2007                                 59% of smartphone sales Q1 ‘12

                      1st phone to feature multi-
                      touch interface
                      #2 in marketshare behind
                      RIM (Blackberry) by 2008


Ipod debuts Nov ‘01           Source: Canalys Report “Smart mobile device shipments hit 118 million in 2007, up 53% on 2006” Feb 5, ’08
                              Source: Techcrunch “The Decline Of Android Foretells The Rise Of A Total Apple Monopoly” Apr 26, ’12
Source: Nielsen blog “Smartphones Account for Half of all Mobile Phones, Dominate New Phone Purchases in the US” Mar 29, ’12




U.S. SMARTPHONE PENETRATION
App [ap]
Definition: application, typically a small specialized
program downloaded to a mobile phone
Source: Information Week Oct 19, ‘11
Source: Nielsen State of Mobile report Q3 ’11
80% of branded apps
                                                                                           have been downloaded
                                                                                           less than 1K times

                                                                                           Less than 1% have hit
                                                                                           1MM or more
                                                                                           downloads




Source: The Guardian “Most branded apps are a flop says Deloitte. But why?” July 11, ’11
MOBILE PAYMENTS
BRANDED UTILITY
PHYGITAL
PHYGITAL
  SEARCH   PUBLISHERS   MOBILE NETWORKS   DSPS + EXCHANGES   SOCIAL         104
                                                                      SMS & BEYOND
SECOND SCREEN
GEO-FENCING
Millenials switch their attention between media platforms
   27x per hour

   In a survey, 70% were willing to give up alcohol for a week versus
   their smartphone; 33% were willing to give up sex

                            Source: Inmobi “5 Ways Mobile Devices Have Changed the Way Americans Consume Media”
                            Source: Time Inc 2012 study “A Biometric Day in the Life”
                            Source: Telenav survey Aug, ’11




HOW WE LOVE OUR PHONES
Average mobile user consumes 9 hours of media daily, their
              mobile device = 26% of this time
Source: Comscore 2012 US Digital Future
Source: Nielsen state of mobile Q3 ‘11 report




HOW WE LOVE OUR PHONES
Source: Sandivine report “Global Internet Phenomena” 2012
Source: Nielsen Q4 ‘11 Report
More than 1/3 of mobile (Google)
searches have local intent




                                               “I get really geeked out when I think what would it
                                               mean if someone is moving faster than 3MPH
                                               relative to someone moving slower…”—
                                               Jason Spero, Google Head of Mobile Sales and Strategy

Source: Adweek Feb 13, ‘12 “The Mobile Issue: Jason Spiro: Mobile Evangelist interview”
HIGHLY LOCALIZED
Can the App transform Television The Way it Has Mobile?
Source: Leichtman Research Group Apr, ’12
"I’d like to create an integrated television
                                          set that is completely easy to use," Jobs
                                          told his biographer, Walter Isaacson. "It
                                          would be seamlessly synced with all of
                                          your devices and with iCloud ... It will
                                          have the simplest user interface you
                                          could imagine. I finally cracked it.”




Source: “Steve Jobs’ By Walter Isaacson
CUTTING THE CORD
THE GATEKEEPERS
40% Revenue from
                      Advertising




                   60% Revenue from
                  Re-transmission fees




                    $86 on average
                    versus $45 for
                     broadband*
*Averages




MSOs / NETWORKS
BANDWIDTH THROTTLING
Source: PC World “AT&T Wireless Bandwidth Throttling: The Backlash Has Begun” Feb 14, ‘12




BANDWIDTH THROTTLING
Half Hour of Reality TV                                                             One hour of scripted
$100-$500K                                                                          drama
                                                                                    $1MM-2MM
Source: http://www.eonline.com/news/ask_the_answer_bitch/which_costs_more_reality_tv_scripted/70141




ORIGINAL CONTENT IS EXPENSIVE
CORD CUTTING EFFECT – SMALL BUT GROWING
Source: Nielsen Digital Consumer Q4 ’11 report




OUR TV ADDICTION
CONTENT IS KING
   BUT EASE OF USE IS QUEEN
EPILOGUE
IN US 65% OF TRAFFIC FROM REAL-TIME
Source: Akami State of the Internet Q2 ‘11 report




US RANKS #16 – AVG CONNECTION SPEED
DEBATE NET NEUTRALITY
INNOVATIVE STORYTELLING
INNOVATIVE STORYTELLING
Source: BusinessInsider “The Future of Mobile” Mar 22, ‘12




MOVE FROM PC TO MOBILE ERA
EVOLUTION FROM APPS
PRIVACY
EVOLUTION OF AD SPEND
DAN WIEDEN: THE FUTURE OF TV

Presentation for miami ad school

  • 1.
  • 2.
    THIS PRESENTATION ISALREADY OUT OF DATE DISCLAIMER
  • 3.
    WHAT SHAPES MEDIALANDSCAPE… AND WILL CONTINUE TO
  • 4.
  • 5.
    CONTENT IS KING BUTEASE OF USE IS QUEEN
  • 6.
    Apple is worthover $500B Or more than: - Walt Disney - News Corp - Time Warner - CBS - Viacom Combined
  • 7.
  • 9.
    Source: TUAW.com Sept24, ‘10 “What 10 Years Apple Did to its Main Product”
  • 10.
    Processor Speed Cheaper Data Storage Fiber Optics Satellite GPS HDTV Flash Memory Broadband Linux Wireless Open Source WIFI Touchscreen Cloud Computing TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCES
  • 11.
  • 12.
    Broadcasters: Transmitted free to the viewer over the air Predominately advertising driven for revenue KEY TERMINOLOGY:
  • 13.
    ex : AdSupported Cable: Delivered through an in-home connection via a subscription model for the viewer. Also advertising driven, however also receive retransmission fees from the subscription model. ex : Premium Cable: Delivered as above, 100% driven by subscription fees to the viewer. KEY TERMINOLOGY:
  • 14.
    ex : ex : ex : Cable MSO Satellite Telecom These are the different in-home delivery methods for subscription television. As of the end of 2011, 90% of US Households subscribe to one of these: - 56% Cable - 36% Satellite - 8% Telecom KEY TERMINOLOGY:
  • 16.
    Source: Parks AssociatesWhitepaper 2011 “Digitalsmiths” THE EVOLUTION OF VIEWING
  • 17.
    Source: Nielsen data SHAREOF PRIMETIME VIEWING
  • 19.
    8 #4 - 24MM viewers / 16.4.0 HH rtg 8:30 #12 - 35MM viewers / 11.7 HH rtg #1 show on TV, 35MM viewers / 22.0 HH rtg 9 1 in 3 TV’s tuned in at that time were watching Seinfeld Last season on air #3 - 24MM viewers / 16.8 HH rtg 9:30 Off air w/in 2 years 10 #2 - 30MM viewers / 20.7 HH rtg NBC ‘MUST SEE THURSDAY’ LINEUP ‘97-’98
  • 21.
    Debuts Jan ’993.5MM viewers and averages that for 1st season Season 1 finale draws 5.2MM viewers Season 2 opens Jan ‘00 to 7.6MM viewers Source: Nielsen
  • 22.
    By the timethe Sopranos goes off air: Averaging 9-11MM viewers At its height popularity, ‘02 drew 13.4MM for the season premiere and is almost outdrawing NBC on Sunday nights Series finale was watched by 11.9MM Source: Nielsen
  • 23.
    By the timethe Sopranos goes off air: 21 Emmy wins including : - 2 Best Drama - 6 for Best Lead Actor/Actress 111 Nominations Overall 2 Peabody Awards
  • 24.
  • 25.
  • 26.
  • 27.
    Debuts at theConsumer Electronics Show in ‘99 Debuts Jan 10, 1999 on HBO Releases June ‘99
  • 28.
    Source: Parks AssociatesWhitepaper 2011 “Digitalsmiths” THE EVOLUTION OF VIEWING
  • 29.
    Since Nielsen startedmeasuring DVR use in 2007, usage has doubled. And for those under 55 years old spend 9 hours a month watching time shifted / recorded TV DVR USE
  • 30.
    Source: Nielsen DVRState of Media Jan ’11 for P1849, % of total DVR playback Source: Nielsen DVR State of Media Jan ’11 DVR PLAYBACK BY HOUR
  • 31.
    Source: Sandvine Overthe Top Video From a Cable Perspective 2012 report ONLINE TRAFFIC BY HOUR
  • 32.
    Source: Nielsen “Who,When and How? A Closer Look at Video Game Measurement” Apr 21, ’10 XBOX USE BY HOUR
  • 34.
    Live A18-49 Live + & 7 day Rating A18-49 Rating % Increase 2.6 3.9 50% 2.7 3.8 41% 1.2 2.3 92% Source: TV By the Numbers Apr 16, 2012 using Nielsen data THE DVR EFFECT
  • 35.
    4.50 3.88 4.00 3.26 3.41 3.32 3.50 3.00 3.26 Average P2+ 2.50 2.61 2.98 2.62 Rating 2.00 2.42 2.30 1.50 1.00 1.37 1.55 1.29 1.31 1.07 0.50 0.00 2005 / 06 2006 / 07 2007/ 08 2008 / 09 2009 / 10 Year Network Sports Cable Sports Broadcast Prime LIVE SPORTS DVR PROOF
  • 36.
  • 37.
    File sharing peer-to-peernetwork that specialized in music Launches ’00, sued Feb ‘01 July ‘01 Declares June ’99 by hits peak loses bankruptcy Metallica 26.4MM appeal in 2002 users lawsuit by RIAA
  • 41.
  • 42.
  • 43.
    Network Content Est Feb ‘05 Controlled Agreements ‘06-’07 Oct ‘05 ‘06-’07 ‘07 Jan ‘08 Mar ‘08 Nov ‘08 Feb ‘11 Feb ‘10
  • 44.
    July ’07 January ‘12 Avg video view length Avg video view length 2.7 minutes 6.1 minutes 9 billion online video 40 billion online video views by 134MM viewers views by 181MM viewers Source: Comscore ONLINE VIEWERSHIP TRENDING UP
  • 48.
    Source: PaidContent.org “Amazon:Bring us your kids’ and comedy shows, get $55,000” May 2, ‘12
  • 50.
    "Change is coming.I think we are at the dawn of a strong new presence of web-based programming.” "It is in 2012 what premium cable was in 1984, in terms of moving in the way of Emmy recognition and prominence.“ -- John Leverence, senior vice president of awards for the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences Source: TheWrap.com “The Emmys Grapple With a New Question: TV or Not TV” April ’12
  • 51.
    Web 2.0 Term used to define the current internet we live in now, 2nd generation from static HTML pages to more dynamic web that is better organized and based on serving web applications to users. Other improved functionality includes open communication with an emphasis on Web-based communities of users
  • 52.
    Google Versus Facebook The Fight Over the Shift to a More Social Web Source: Fortune “Facebook vs. Google: The battle for the future of the Web” Nov 29, ‘11
  • 53.
    Share of Revenue: 41% 10% 5% Source: 1.2012 IAB Internet Revenue Report 2. Emarketer “Google Edges Closer to Facebook as US Display Advertising Becomes Two-Horse Race” Feb 22, ‘12 ONLINE ADVERTISING REVENUE
  • 54.
    A more organized worldcentered around search with Google in the middle
  • 56.
    “At Google, webelieve that ads are a valuable source of information — one that can connect people to the advertisers offering products, services and ideas that interest them. By making ads more relevant, and improving the connection between advertisers and our users, we can create more value for everyone. Users get more useful ads, and these more relevant ads generate higher returns for advertisers and publishers.” “Keyword advertising has been so successful because it's useful to users, advertisers and publishers — everyone's interests are aligned.” Source: Google blog “Making ads more interesting” Mar 11, ‘09 GOOGLE’S MISSION - ADVERTISING
  • 57.
    A more openand connected world, centered around the social graph with Facebook in the middle
  • 60.
  • 65.
  • 68.
    Source: Mashable “Why2011 Will Be Defined by Social Media Democracy” Dec 1, ‘11
  • 73.
    “Google had abuilt in disadvantage in social networking sweepstakes. It was happy to gather information about the intricate web of personal and professional connections known as the ‘social graph’ and integrate that data as signals in its search engine. But the basic premise of social networking –that personal recommendation from a friend was more valuable than all of human wisdom, as represented by Google search – was viewed with horror at Google. Page and Brin had started Google on the premise that the algorithm would provide the only answer” Source: “In the Plex” by Steve Levy
  • 74.
    Source: The Guardian“Web Freedom Faces Greatest Threat Ever, warns Google’s Sergey Brin” April 15, ‘12
  • 75.
    OTHER OPPORTUNITIES OFTHE SOCIAL WEB
  • 76.
    48% of onlinebrand mentions involve media or marketing materials 33% of these from TV Source: WARC “Brand Mentioned 3Bn times a Day in US” June ‘11 HEIGHTEN IMPACT OF OTHER MEDIA
  • 77.
    Source: Forbes “SuperBowl XLVI Social Media Audience Delivers 64 Million Impressions” Feb 21, ‘12 CO-VIEWING MOMENTS MORE IMPORTANT
  • 78.
  • 79.
  • 80.
    ANOTHER PLACE TOEXPERIENCE A BRAND
  • 81.
    DRAW INSIGHTS FROMJUST ‘LISTENING’
  • 82.
    FEEL MORE CONNECTEDTO BRANDS / STARS
  • 84.
    425MM monthly visitors un-monetized by ad revenue
  • 85.
  • 87.
    #2 in smartphonemarketshare behind Android with 1/3 market #1 in tablet marketshare 1st Iphone release 2007 59% of smartphone sales Q1 ‘12 1st phone to feature multi- touch interface #2 in marketshare behind RIM (Blackberry) by 2008 Ipod debuts Nov ‘01 Source: Canalys Report “Smart mobile device shipments hit 118 million in 2007, up 53% on 2006” Feb 5, ’08 Source: Techcrunch “The Decline Of Android Foretells The Rise Of A Total Apple Monopoly” Apr 26, ’12
  • 88.
    Source: Nielsen blog“Smartphones Account for Half of all Mobile Phones, Dominate New Phone Purchases in the US” Mar 29, ’12 U.S. SMARTPHONE PENETRATION
  • 89.
    App [ap] Definition: application,typically a small specialized program downloaded to a mobile phone
  • 96.
  • 99.
    Source: Nielsen Stateof Mobile report Q3 ’11
  • 100.
    80% of brandedapps have been downloaded less than 1K times Less than 1% have hit 1MM or more downloads Source: The Guardian “Most branded apps are a flop says Deloitte. But why?” July 11, ’11
  • 101.
  • 102.
  • 103.
  • 104.
    PHYGITAL SEARCH PUBLISHERS MOBILE NETWORKS DSPS + EXCHANGES SOCIAL 104 SMS & BEYOND
  • 105.
  • 106.
  • 107.
    Millenials switch theirattention between media platforms 27x per hour In a survey, 70% were willing to give up alcohol for a week versus their smartphone; 33% were willing to give up sex Source: Inmobi “5 Ways Mobile Devices Have Changed the Way Americans Consume Media” Source: Time Inc 2012 study “A Biometric Day in the Life” Source: Telenav survey Aug, ’11 HOW WE LOVE OUR PHONES
  • 108.
    Average mobile userconsumes 9 hours of media daily, their mobile device = 26% of this time Source: Comscore 2012 US Digital Future Source: Nielsen state of mobile Q3 ‘11 report HOW WE LOVE OUR PHONES
  • 109.
    Source: Sandivine report“Global Internet Phenomena” 2012
  • 110.
    Source: Nielsen Q4‘11 Report
  • 111.
    More than 1/3of mobile (Google) searches have local intent “I get really geeked out when I think what would it mean if someone is moving faster than 3MPH relative to someone moving slower…”— Jason Spero, Google Head of Mobile Sales and Strategy Source: Adweek Feb 13, ‘12 “The Mobile Issue: Jason Spiro: Mobile Evangelist interview”
  • 112.
  • 113.
    Can the Apptransform Television The Way it Has Mobile?
  • 117.
  • 118.
    "I’d like tocreate an integrated television set that is completely easy to use," Jobs told his biographer, Walter Isaacson. "It would be seamlessly synced with all of your devices and with iCloud ... It will have the simplest user interface you could imagine. I finally cracked it.” Source: “Steve Jobs’ By Walter Isaacson
  • 119.
  • 120.
  • 121.
    40% Revenue from Advertising 60% Revenue from Re-transmission fees $86 on average versus $45 for broadband* *Averages MSOs / NETWORKS
  • 123.
  • 124.
    Source: PC World“AT&T Wireless Bandwidth Throttling: The Backlash Has Begun” Feb 14, ‘12 BANDWIDTH THROTTLING
  • 125.
    Half Hour ofReality TV One hour of scripted $100-$500K drama $1MM-2MM Source: http://www.eonline.com/news/ask_the_answer_bitch/which_costs_more_reality_tv_scripted/70141 ORIGINAL CONTENT IS EXPENSIVE
  • 126.
    CORD CUTTING EFFECT– SMALL BUT GROWING
  • 128.
    Source: Nielsen DigitalConsumer Q4 ’11 report OUR TV ADDICTION
  • 129.
    CONTENT IS KING BUT EASE OF USE IS QUEEN EPILOGUE
  • 130.
    IN US 65%OF TRAFFIC FROM REAL-TIME
  • 131.
    Source: Akami Stateof the Internet Q2 ‘11 report US RANKS #16 – AVG CONNECTION SPEED
  • 132.
  • 133.
  • 134.
  • 135.
    Source: BusinessInsider “TheFuture of Mobile” Mar 22, ‘12 MOVE FROM PC TO MOBILE ERA
  • 136.
  • 137.
  • 138.
  • 139.
    DAN WIEDEN: THEFUTURE OF TV

Editor's Notes

  • #24 Other influence: - credited with allowing other dramas with mature content to receive mainstream recognition- helped turn serial television into an art form- 3 dimensional characters who could be flawed heroes, or ambiguously bad guys- showed the way for cable to schedule, HBO wasn’t looking to schedule original lineup each night so the Sopranos could be shown in repeat throughout the week to allow for catch up
  • #30 DVRs are in 41% of TV households source: Nielsen Q4 ’11 Cross Platform Study
  • #38 Starts to introduce for the masses, the idea of digital media - downloadable - control over your content - sharing that content - Starts to introduce the idea of social networking, connecting with strangers to learn something
  • #42 Apple introduces “freemium” the idea that consumer will still pay for content in exchange for convenience, quality assurance
  • #43 Copyright and control issues for video content creators / distributors
  • #45 Google 27% of views in ’07Google 46% of views in ’12, 33% of time spent viewing
  • #46 Can charge a premium for it. Advertisers pay for positioning and exclusivity, and selling across their entire which isn’t always ad friendlyOriginal IP, or intellectual property. The opportunity to hit on a winner that could turn into a lucrative franchiseGets Youtube onto the big tube. Short bite videos are good for the laptop or phone but long form is best on the big screen. Youtube becomes an entertainment destination
  • #47 Debuts July ‘12
  • #48 Netflix reaction to issues with content rights, enter original programming themselves
  • #53 Collectively between the two, 25% of total time spent online source: Comscore March 2012 data
  • #54 Google has the lions share of online revenue, 41% largely driven by their dominance in search.Search = 47% of online revenueBut it’s growth is slowing as the search market maturesFacebook is 5% but is the #1 display advertising although closely followed by Google. Yahoo is actually double Facebook currently bc of search at 10% of the total US market
  • #59 Facebook is closed to Googles’ web crawler, unable to index individual pages
  • #60 In Facebook’s world, every facet of the internet would benefit from the power of a personal connection
  • #62 Older version of Trip Advisor, with only anonymous reviews
  • #63 More current version, includes information pulled from Facebook to show those in your social graph
  • #64 Yelp with Like button and social graph
  • #65 Example of relevant advertising on Facebook based on social graph information
  • #67 Avg user has 150 connections they maintain in any wayAnthropological connection as tribes tended to break off as #’s got bigger than 150, unable to maintain connection with all tribe members past thisRoman armies used the same for their battalions
  • #68 Network affect, disparate networks can be connected through any individual
  • #78 Last Super Bowl = $3.5MM per :30 reportedly, and that price has gone up every year
  • #79 From 2011 MTV VMA Awards
  • #80 Hunger Games used Facebook pages to immerse fans in mythology of storyline.
  • #81 Zappos extends brand philosophy to the way they treat social
  • #84 Interesting things came out of this: - How important social gaming is for Facebook, with Zynga accounting for 12% of their revenue - Just how big they are. 1/6 of the world’s population is a member, with growth coming from places like Brazil and India - And I think they just announced they’re over 900MM members worldwide now - But the biggest thing everyone saw was their vulnerability in mobile
  • #85 Source: Facebook IPO filing, this out of the (at the time) 845MM monthly visitors.Also noted, “The global mobile advertising market was $1.5 billion in 2010 and is expected to grow at a 64% compound annual rate to $17.6 billion in 2015.”
  • #89 This adoption rate is much higher for younger and more affluent demographics
  • #91 Apps let developers connect the mobile device to the outside world creating innovative programs that didn’t exist before. Everything the phone could do was open to them, from internet connection, to accelerometer, GPS, microphone, camera, soon video.
  • #92 Shazam claims it has over 200MM users
  • #93 Twitter and the smartphone were a perfect marriage at the beginning with the 140 character limit similar to a text message in size. The social network then could add on other phone information such as pictures and location.
  • #94 Foursquare creates a community around GPS and search, knowing where you are and then sharing that with others
  • #95 Angry Birds released in 2009 still has over 24MM active monthly users Source: www.appdata.comLatest release Angry Birds Space hit over 50MM downloads in just over a monthSource: CNET “Angry Birds Space: 50 million downloads in 35 days” Apr 30, ‘12
  • #96 Connected devices to your phone, you can remotely start your vehicle with an app
  • #98 In their recent Q1 earnings report, NY Times reported 472K digital readers, up 16% from YA
  • #102 Starbucks is one of the first brands to experiment with mobile payments in scale. More than 3 million people have made payments using the Starbucks Card Mobile application,making Starbucks the nation’s largest mobile payment network. As of last year, nearly 6,800 stand alone Starbucks locations and 1,000 Starbucks in Target stores have mobile payment capabilities.In addition to mobile payments, the app offers other useful features such as the ability to send someone a customized startbucks gift card, help manage your rewards program, helping find the closest Starbucks location. Beyond their app they are also well integrated in other social channels such as Foursquare where Starbucks rewards their consumers for frequent checkins and on Twitter where they actively communicate with their audience on their ideas for Starbucks.
  • #104 Phygital = combining the digital with the physical world to amplify the physical Example: McDonalds virtual billboard controller
  • #105 Tesco virtual store uses QR codesTesco Home Plus is a supermarket chain in Korea that’s vying to be rated No. 1. It’s main competitor, E-Mart has a greater number of stores than Tesco, but the company is determined to become the No. 1 grocery chain without increasing the number of stores. They solved the issue using smartphones.Koreans are the second hardest working people in the world, and time is literally money. Taking an hour a week for grocery shopping can be a real drag, so the company devised a way to have the store come to the people. Tesco set up virtual grocery stores in locations like subway/metro stations so that people can literally do their grocery shopping while waiting for the train.The walls are plastered with posters that resemble the aisles and shelves of a supermarket. They’re lined from top to bottom with the products you’d normally see while grocery shopping. The only difference is that you can’t just grab the product and check out. The groceries each have a QR code which the shopper scans with a smartphone camera and adds to a shopping list. When the shopper has scanned all the codes for all the groceries needed, he pays using his phone and the groceries are then delivered to his home.
  • #106 Red Bull Offers Second Screen Experience2nd screen is a relatively new application. Red Bull partnered with Shazam during a recent snowboarding telecast. Tagging the show with the Shazam app brought up a live 2nd video which was the first person perspective of the rider.
  • #107 Gap Uses Geo-FencingGap used geo-fencing, setting a virtual perimeter, to advertise their store locations in a few markets. Smart in they knew bus stops would be a place where bored commuters would likely to be playing popular game Words With Friends and used the area fencing to advertise within the game.
  • #110 Fixed Access = through cable, telephone, fiber optic into home / business / etc. Not through cellular connection
  • #111 Top activities done while watching TV: - Checking email 61% - Visiting social networking site 47% - Looking up info reltated to the TV program watching 37% - Checking sports socres 34% - Looking up coupons or deals related to an ad on tv 22%Picture from www.netgem.com “Is My Telly Really Becoming Social?” Jan 17, ‘12 - Looking up product info related to an ad on tv 27%
  • #112 Picture from Bloomberg.com “Tablet, Smartphone Growth Boosts Mobile Search Ads, But at a Price” Mar 26, ’12Source: Adweek Feb 13, ‘12 “The Mobile Issue: Jason Spiro: Mobile Evangelist interview”Question: What other mobile signals could you use to reach people?Answer: “On mobile, people are moving between connections. What does it mean if you’re connecting via broadband as opposed to cellular? How does location factor in? Time of day means different things whether you’re at work or in transit. I get really geeked out when I think what would it mean if someone is moving faster than 3 mph relative to someone who's ..moving slower than 3mph, which would imply that they’re walking”
  • #113 From the app News.me. Through its PaperBoy function, News.me knows “when” you leave your house based on changing cell tower and automatically sends you news to read on your way to work. It triggers this when your cellphone jumps to a new cell tower, indicating you’ve left your home.
  • #115 2011 Consumer Electronics Show, buzz for TV manufacturers was 3D capabilities coming out of the success of the movie ‘Avatar’
  • #116 In 2012 over half the TV sets shown at CES were “connected TVs”, with some form of internet enabled connection
  • #117 Samsung Smart TV video from this year’s CES - see where the evolution is happening - attempting to go completely remote free - voice control, kinect-like remote with hand motion - voice control, voice recognitionFYI, this starts at over $3K
  • #118 28% are through a gaming system like Xbox or Playstation4% through internet connected tv1% through dedicated device like Apple TV or Roku
  • #120 What’s stopping a mass migration, cutting the cable cord and going straight to online with its infinite choices
  • #122 The cable / broadcaster and cable operator relationship is extremely valuable
  • #123 Example of ESPN requiring cable subscription proof to access on demand content online
  • #125 Source: PC World “AT&T Wireless Bandwidth Throttling: The Backlash Has Begun” Feb 14, ‘12Mobile has gate agent as well, with bandwidth throttling and expensive overage fees for going over the caps.
  • #126 Source: http://www.eonline.com/news/ask_the_answer_bitch/which_costs_more_reality_tv_scripted/70141Youtube is making a $100MM investment spread across hundreds of content channels to produce video content Granted they’re also asking for $62MM for exclusive channel sponsorships, or at the very least $500K for a month of a specific channelNetflix and Hulu have shown they’re both vulnerable to re-transmission fees.Hulu has had deals with Viacom networks fall through, with popular shows like the Daily Show moving over to ComedyCentral.comNetflix recently had their deal with Starz to show their entire inventory of movies and original shows end as well.
  • #127 Source: Nielsen This chart appears when people talk about cord cutting a lot. And it shows less than 5% could classify as a cord cutter. Research firm Deloitte recently put the # as high as 9% of Americans.As part of the NPD report on the cable bill, 59% of cable subscribers preferred having one single provider, and only 20% said they would likely cancel their cable if they could get their favorite shows online.Convenience wins for now
  • #128 Source: HomeMedia Magazine Mar 27, ’12
  • #129 There is a huge divide still in habit. And that TV # is going up still, thanks to DVR use we continue to watch more TV than ever beforeIf you go by Comscore that # jumps up a bit but still dwarfed by TVIt’s convenient, plenty of quality content, the delivery system (ie cable wire or satellite) is consistent and
  • #130 Talk a lot in here about the tug of war between content owners, distributors and consumers wanting total freedom with that content. This is a struggle that’s going to continue to define the media landscape.
  • #131 Source: SandvineReal Time Entertainment = on demand video, audio And there is some validity to the concerns of the internet service providers, as video adoption / usage is growing rapidly
  • #132 Source:Akami State of the Internet Q2 ‘11 reportFor a variety of reasons, the US has not kept up with much of the rest of the world in
  • #133 How does this stifle competition?
  • #134 Start at the 13:10 minute mark for demonstration of Kinect and Sesame Street
  • #136 Source:BusinessInsider “The Future of Mobile” Mar 22, ‘12In 2011, sales of smartphones overtook sales of personal computers. Analysts have predicted tablets will catch up by 2016.
  • #137 Facebook is pushing heavily for a uniform and wider acceptance of a standardized browser format for HTML5. This would allow websites to function like a web app by offering design that is mobile friendly versus laptop/desktop friendly.The advantage for Facebook is streamlining and extending their website exposure to mobile where they can sell advertising versus the app experience where they cannot (or would need to share revenue with another vendor) as well as selling apps that work with their own site to other marketers.Google and Apple for their part, are not as motived because they take roughly 30% of revenue through paid apps within the Android and IOS app stores.
  • #138 Source: Wired UK “Compliance with EU cookie law could cost the UK £10 billion” Apr 24, ’12On May 26, all UK websites will need to come into compliance with The EU Privacy and Electronic Communications Directive. This law basically says all users have to opt in to allow a cookie to be placed on their computer. Cookie is a bit data stored by a website on a web browser. Help websites remember things that the browser had done before, for instance it could remember your name, what you had searched for on the site, etc. In that way it’s used to make your subsequent visits more relevant, you begin to be offered up what’s useful to you based on what you’ve done there before.There are also tracking cookies and these can begin to build long term histories of browser activities. These are used in advertising in what we call behavioral targeting and form the basis behind that “performance-based” media spend showed earlier, the one that accounts for 65% of total online media.This allows a marketer to advertise across the web, in what’s been called the Long tail. You don’t have to go out and buy small websites, you can go to one source who contracts with all of these sites to find the online audience you want. US legislation has been proposed that would mimic the EU’s, with the latest version focused on banning tracking of kids online (not sure how this would work). Many publishers / browsers are taking the initiative to self police in the hopes to appease the government and activist groups and prevent legislation. However as people continue to turn more and more of their lives over to online, we can expect these privacy concerns to continue to pop up and calls for similar laws to those in Europe that would have huge implications for online marketing and publishing.
  • #139 Note here about how advertising revenue plays a large role in consumer acceptance. Cable’s recent spurt in programming is as much a result of ad dollars moving to cable as it increases in re-transmission fees. It’s advertisers seeing the value in the audience and association with a Mad Men or a Top Chef to justify spending premium dollars on them. We’re just at the beginning of mobile. For most marketers they’re at the point of dipping their toe in to try it out. But for the most part, the mass marketers are chasing eye balls and we know this is where the eyeballs are headed. It’s just matter of finding the content / platforms worth premium dollars that move it beyond a simple CPM or cost efficiency purchase. IF Youtube for instance finds some break out hits among the 100 channels
  • #140 Source: From an interview Dan Wieden did for ThinkTV, a marketing initiative of FreeTV Australia the broadcasting representative