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The Way of the Hybrid NOC Michael T. Jones The Fletcher School EIB B234
Presentation Outline ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Times are a Changin’
Oil Prices, Nationalizations, and Privatizations Government Takeovers Government Divestitures $137 b in divestitures $6 trillion to go!
NOCs in the Global 500 Source: Fortune Magazine
Ratio Comparisons Source: PIW Profit margin employee/profit ratio (m) NOCs 12% 23 IOCs 18% 5 Hybrids 16% 6
Why have a NOC? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
NOC Stereotypes ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Types of National Oil Companies ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],commercializing competitive ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],International partial-privatization ,[object Object],[object Object],Asia Middle East Latin America Europe Petronas is commercially competitive without being even partially private!
Drivers of Commercialization Technology Resources Source: PFC CNOOC Sinopec ONGC CNPC S. Aramco Gazprom/Rosneft National Asset Holders NNPC Finance and Security Seekers PEMEX Pertamina Petronas Statoil Petrobras Entrepreneurial NOCs LNOC Technology Seekers PDVSA KPC Ecopetrol EGPC Declining NOCs PTT Sonangol NIOC Sonatrach QP Market Seekers More adept Less adept Diminishing Production Expanding Production
Political events caused IOCs to look beyond OPEC for supplies… Yom Kippur War Iranian Revolution ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Contracts ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Avoided “killing the goose that lays the golden egg” and the “sleeping partner” syndrome
Hybrid NOC’s Competitive Advantages Saudi Aramco’s Oil Supply Planning and Scheduling Dept.
Petrobras: Deepwater Drilling ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Petrobras … another 20,000 ft to go
Pre-Salt Challenge
Statoil: Subsea & IOR
Petronas: LNG & Shipping ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Ownership & Governance ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Malaysia: Petronas
Government Relations: Petronas Petroleum Product Pricing Downstream Regulators Subsidies Dividends Energy Policy Upstream Regulator Natural Gas Pricing PM is also Minister of Finance
Petronas: Important Events ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Oil
Petronas: Management ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Petronas: Finance & the State ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Petronas: Global Investments
Petronas as a leader ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Corruption & Misuse ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Brazil: Petrobras
Government Relations: Petrobras Regulator: issues E&P licenses
Petrobras: Important Events ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Oil Gas
Petrobras: Global Investments
Petrobras: Corruption and Misuse ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
When technology outpaces skill…
Norway: Statoil
Government Relations: Statoil Source: Norwegian Ministry of Petroleum and Energy Consultant Government Investor NOC Pension Manager ($280 b) Policymaker Administrator/ Regulator
Statoil: Important Events ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Oil Gas
Home Reserves & Commercialization Process Protection Competition Partial Privatization Internationalization Reserves Domestic Political  Power International Political  Power
Statoil: Global Investments
Comparisons: Strengths-Weaknesses Strengths Weaknesses
Ingredients for an efficient NOC: Clear separation of powers/regulator X X No Financial and managerial autonomy X X ? Timely injection of competition X X ? Desperation (diminishing reserves) ? X X Technological innovation X X X Educated workforce X X ?
Future Outlook State Market ?
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Future Outlook
Tamed Mercantilism ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Thank you!
Who Are the NOCs? (cont.) Source: PwC Norway Azerbaijan China Mexico Brazil Malaysia India  Egypt Angola Oman Indonesia Libya Nigeria Venezuela Kuwait Iran Saudi Arabia Russia Algeria Qatar UAE Iraq Kazakhstan Uzbekistan Turkmenistan Under Development PSCs Available International NOCs Restricted Access Gas to Markets BOE Reserves BOE Production
Brazil is soon to become a net exporter of oil… Missing their production targets!
Oil Money: Malaysia ,[object Object],[object Object]

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