90 Days Prior to the Election As the Taiwanese elections reach the 90-day mark, the race for the presidency is at a statistical dead-heat. The KMT's candidate (and current Mayor of Taipei) Ma Ying Jeon holds a 50.40% to 49.60% lead over the TSU's candidate Shu Chin-Chiang. Coverage of the elections in the PRC's state-run media Xinhua has focused on two main themes.The first centers on veiled warnings to both candidates to avoid unnecessarily increasing tensions by injecting inflammatory issues (i.e. Taiwan independence) into the election. Their second theme has focused on condemning the TSU's Shu Chin-Chiang as a "reckless war mongerer" whose election would "irreparably damage the spirit surrounding positive negotiations." On the diplomatic front, Taiwan's Central News Agency is reporting representatives from Ma Ying Jeon KMT are believed to be in the PRC conducting undisclosed negotiations. 85 Days Prior to the Election After unleashing a new attack on Shu Chin-Chiang's alleged involvement in a two-year old corruption scandal, Ma Ying Jeon (KMT-52.05%) has increased his lead over Shu Chin-Chiang (TSU-47.95%) by 4.1%. Although Shu Chin-Chiang was exonerated of any involvement in the cash-for-votes scandal, he realizes his vulnerability and has begun holding a series of high-level party meetings to develop a new strategy. 80 Days Prior to the Election Ma Ying Jeon's (KMT-54.55%) continued attacks on Shu Chin-Chiang (TSU-45.45%) has expanded his lead to 9.1%. With less than three months to go before the election, Shu Chin-Chiang's campaign seems to be in a state of paralysis and unless a counterattack is launched soon, Shu Chin-Chiang's chances for winning the presidency will slip away. 75 DAYS PRIOR TO THE ELECTION Taiwan's Central News Agency is reporting Taiwan's National Security Bureau (NSB) has uncovered plans by the PRC to increase tensions between the two countries should Shu Chin-Chiang (TSU) be elected. Although the Central News Agency refused to divulge their sources for the report, they insisted the accuracy and reliability of the information was "100% certain". Ma Ying Jeon's (KMT-54.95%) lead over Shu Chin-Chiang (TSU-45.05%) has continued to grow, albeit at a slower pace. 70 DAYS PRIOR TO THE ELECTION In the wake of the Central News Agency's report, Shu Chin-Chiang (TSU) has launched a blistering attack on the KMT for conspiring with the PRC to influence the outcome of the presidential elections. Citing Taiwan's Central News Agency report that KMT members were in the PRC approximately three weeks earlier, Shu Chin-Chiang (TSU) accused the KMT of "working with the enemy in order to maintain their political control." In addition to vehement denials by Ma Ying Jeon, the PRC's Xinhua news agency ran an editorial claiming Chiang's accusations were "baseless lies designed to increase tensions between the PRC and its province." In light of the alleged PRC plan, public opinion within Taiwan appears to be shifting towards the TSU..

1. 90 Days Prior to the Election
As the Taiwanese elections reach the 90-day mark, the race for
the presidency is at a statistical dead-heat. The KMT's candidate
(and current Mayor of Taipei) Ma Ying Jeon holds a 50.40% to
49.60% lead over the TSU's candidate Shu Chin-Chiang.
Coverage of the elections in the PRC's state-run media Xinhua
has focused on two main themes.The first centers on veiled
warnings to both candidates to avoid unnecessarily increasing
tensions by injecting inflammatory issues (i.e. Taiwan
independence) into the election. Their second theme has focused
on condemning the TSU's Shu Chin-Chiang as a "reckless war
mongerer" whose election would "irreparably damage the spirit
surrounding positive negotiations." On the diplomatic front,
Taiwan's Central News Agency is reporting representatives from
Ma Ying Jeon KMT are believed to be in the PRC conducting
undisclosed negotiations.
85 Days Prior to the Election
After unleashing a new attack on Shu Chin-Chiang's alleged
involvement in a two-year old corruption scandal, Ma Ying Jeon
(KMT-52.05%) has increased his lead over Shu Chin-Chiang
(TSU-47.95%) by 4.1%.
Although Shu Chin-Chiang was exonerated of any involvement
in the cash-for-votes scandal, he realizes his vulnerability and
has begun holding a series of high-level party meetings to
develop a new strategy.
80 Days Prior to the Election
Ma Ying Jeon's (KMT-54.55%) continued attacks on Shu Chin-
Chiang (TSU-45.45%) has expanded his lead to 9.1%.
With less than three months to go before the election, Shu Chin-

2. Chiang's campaign seems to be in a state of paralysis and unless
a counterattack is launched soon, Shu Chin-Chiang's chances for
winning the presidency will slip away.
75 DAYS PRIOR TO THE ELECTION
Taiwan's Central News Agency is reporting Taiwan's National
Security Bureau (NSB) has uncovered plans by the PRC to
increase tensions between the two countries should Shu Chin-
Chiang (TSU) be elected. Although the Central News Agency
refused to divulge their sources for the report, they insisted the
accuracy and reliability of the information was "100% certain".
Ma Ying Jeon's (KMT-54.95%) lead over Shu Chin-Chiang
(TSU-45.05%) has continued to grow, albeit at a slower pace.
70 DAYS PRIOR TO THE ELECTION
In the wake of the Central News Agency's report, Shu Chin-
Chiang (TSU) has launched a blistering attack on the KMT for
conspiring with the PRC to influence the outcome of the
presidential elections. Citing Taiwan's Central News Agency
report that KMT members were in the PRC approximately three
weeks earlier, Shu Chin-Chiang (TSU) accused the KMT of
"working with the enemy in order to maintain their political
control."
In addition to vehement denials by Ma Ying Jeon, the PRC's
Xinhua news agency ran an editorial claiming Chiang's
accusations were "baseless lies designed to increase tensions
between the PRC and its province." In light of the alleged PRC
plan, public opinion within Taiwan appears to be shifting
towards the TSU. The latest poll numbers show Ma Ying Jeon's
(KMT-54.15%) lead over Shu Chin-Chiang (TSU-45.85%)
weakening slightly to 8.3%.
65 DAYS PRIOR TO THE ELECTION
Concerned the PRC may be attempting to interfere with
"domestic affairs," Taiwan's current president Chen Shui-bian

3. (Democratic Progressive Party) increases the alert status of
Taiwan defense forces. Chen Shui-bian emphasizes this action
is purely defensive and is designed to demonstrate Taiwan's
ability to democratically elect a new president without any
"external influence or intervention."
During a campaign rally in Taipei, Shu Chin-Chiang (TSU-
48.34%) continues to blast Ma Ying Jeon's (KMT-51.66%)
"collusion with the enemy" and claims the Taiwanese people (as
evidenced by his increasing poll numbers) will not stand idly by
as the PRC "meddles" in Taiwan’s affairs. In the PRC, the
Xinhua news agency condemned Shu Chin-Chiang's actions as
"reckless, hostile, and suicidal" and again claimed the
Taiwanese people will not to support a proven "liar and
manipulator." In response to Chen Shui-bian's decision to
increase the readiness level of Taiwan forces, the Chief of the
PLA's General Staff, General Liang Guanglie announce a series
of unrelated naval exercises would be conducted "near Taiwan."
60 DAYS PRIOR TO THE ELECTION
As tensions between Taiwan and PRC increase, Shu Chin-
Chiang (TSU-51.78%) has taken his first lead (3.56%) over Ma
Ying Jeon (KMT-48.22%). During a massive campaign rally in
Tungkang, Shu Chin-Chiang claims over the past 55 years,
Taiwan and PRC have developed "unique, defining
characteristics" causing each "entity" to take "divergent paths."
Taiwan intelligence is reporting a dramatic increase in military
communications between PLA, PLAAF, and PLAN units along
the PRC's eastern coast. The nature of the communications is
unknown. The Xinhua news began airing commentaries from
CCP officials condemning the "renegade province" for engaging
in "reckless behavior."
55 DAYS PRIOR TO THE ELECTION
Shu Chin-Chiang's (TSU-53.27%) lead over Ma Ying Jeon

4. (KMT-46.73%) continues to widen (6.54%) as Shu Chin-Chiang
makes veiled references of independence. To date, Shu Chin-
Chiang has not directly used the word "independence," however
it has become clear to all observers that Shu Chin-Chiang is
headed in that direction.
Taiwan’s current President Chen Shui-bian (DPP) issued a
public warning to Shu Chin-Chiang (TSU) to avoid antagonizing
the PRC by making "inflammatory comments." Said Chen Shui-
bian "I will not stand by and let one man's political desires
place 23 million people at risk."
According to the Pacific Command, flight activity at Shantou,
Fuzhou, and Luqiao air force bases has increased significantly
within the past 48 hours. Reporting from the National Security
Agency indicates a spike in communications activity at
Zhangzhou and Whenzhou Naval bases. The People's Daily, a
newspaper of the CCP ran a series of articles criticizing the
elections and the US’ silence on the issue, suggesting the
elections may be part of a larger US plan to "bring war on the
Chinese people."
50 DAYS PRIOR TO THE ELECTION
Shu Chin-Chiang's (TSU-55.19%) continued references to
"unique, defining characteristics" and "divergent paths" has
expanded his lead (10.36%) over Ma Ying Jeon (KMT-44.83%)
and appears to be headed towards victory. The People's
Liberation Army Daily (the PLA's official newspaper)
proclaimed "The armed forces of the PRC stand ready to crush
anyone seeking to undermine the CCP's sovereign authority."
In a meeting with a reporter from the Washington Times, two
unnamed Pentagon sources confirmed the PRC is in the process
of conducting a limited mobilization of air, land, and sea forces
opposite Taiwan. Seeking to defuse a potential confrontation,
Taiwan's current President Chen Shui-bian (DPP) agreed to send

5. representatives to the mainland to discuss the "current
situation."
45 DAYS PRIOR TO THE ELECTION
During a formal press conference, Ma Ying Jeon (KMT-41.37%)
criticized Shu Chin-Chiang (TSU-58.63%) for "unnecessarily
increasing tensions [that could] bring grave consequences to the
entire region." In response, Shu Chin-Chiang stated "I am
simply following the will of the people. "Taiwan's President
Chen Shui-bian (DPP) issued a statement that negotiations with
the PRC were "progressing" and that Taiwan was contemplating
lowering their military alert status as a sign of "goodwill."
Taiwan's intelligence service confirmed the PLA has ordered
the 1st, 2nd, and 4th Infantry divisions to begin mobilizing.
Satellite imagery also revealed two PLAN anti-ship submarines
from Ningbo have departed port and their exact location is
unknown. The Xinhua news agency is airing footage of PLAAF
fighters and bombers conducting exercises against a "renegade
force seeking to destabilize the PRC." The footage included the
launching of cruise missiles against surface targets and air-to-
air combat. It is unclear when the footage was originally taken.
40 DAYS PRIOR TO THE ELECTION
Ma Ying Jeon (KMT-41.88%) continued to verbally attack Shu
Chin-Chiang (TSU-58.12%) for unnecessarily increasing
tensions with the PRC. Ma appears to be shifting his strategy
towards attacking Shu in hopes the Taiwanese people will place
"common sense" above "nationalism."
According to all-source intelligence from the US’ Strategic
Command, the 99th and 98th missile regiments successfully
fired two CSS-6 short range missiles into a test range located in
central China. A spokesman for the PLA's Second Artillery
Force claimed the launches were part of a planned test to ensure
missile reliability. The National Security Agency reported the

6. PLAN has ordered submarines from Canton, Zhangzhou, and
Whenzhou to prepare for "operations." The PLAN also ordered
the naval squadron at Canton to prepare for "extended"
operations.
35 DAYS PRIOR TO THE ELECTION
With only 35 days remaining until the elections, Ma Ying Jeon's
(KMT-41.45%) attacks against Shu Chin-Chiang (TSU-58.55%)
have failed to produce a significant change within the polls as
he trails by 17.1%.
Although not officially advocating independence, Shu continues
to insist he is only following the will of the Taiwanese people.
The People's Liberation Army Daily announced a series of live
fire missile tests would be conducted "off the Chinese coast
within the very near future." The PLA's 25th and 79th Airborne
divisions have been placed on alert while unconfirmed reporting
suggests PLA Amphibious squadrons in Zhangzhou and
Whenzhou have been ordered to participate in a large scale
exercise scheduled to begin within the next 10 days. In a closed
door meeting with top communist officials, the Premier of the
CPC Hu Jintao reportedly told the Chief of the PLA's General
Staff, General Liang Guanglie to review "all applicable plans."
30 DAYS PRIOR TO THE ELECTION
Ma Ying Jeon's (KMT-40.04%) inability to counter Shu Chin-
Chiang’s (TSU-59.60%) attacks has made his defeat all but
certain, trailing by 19.56 percentage points. Open source
reporting suggests the PRC's Hu Jintao appealed directly to the
United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon to intervene in
the crisis. Given the PRC’s checkered history with the UN, this
appears to be a sincere attempt by Hu to avoid a military
conflict. USAF Electronic Intelligence reporting indicates the
96th Missile Regiment near Nanping is calibrating their
equipment in preparation for a CSS-6 missile launch. Although
the exact impact area(s) for the possible missile launch remain

7. unidentified, analysts assess it will be "very close" to Taiwan.
The PLA has issued tentative mobilization orders to several air
and ground units in the PRC. The orders are believed to be in
preparation for deployment into the Nanjing Military District,
which is located directly across from Taiwan.
25 DAYS PRIOR TO THE ELECTION
As tensions between the PRC and Taiwan continue to rise,
sources within the White House are expressing dismay over
events in Taiwan.During a televised press conference, President
Obama cautioned Shu Chin-Chiang to accept the "status quo" by
not (unnecessarily) increasing tensions in a politically charged
environment. US representatives from the American Institute in
Taiwan have also conveyed "serious concern" over the rhetoric
being used by Shu Chin-Chiang. US representatives warned
both presidential candidates that under the current
circumstances, the US could not guarantee political, or let alone
military support, should a confrontation with the PRC occur.
Said one high ranking US official "should Shu claim
independence, there is no way the US President will send US
forces near Taiwan." Amid rising tensions, the United Nations
Security Council agreed to immediately address the brewing
crisis.
20 DAYS PRIOR TO THE ELECTION
Having essentially been warned by the international community,
Shu Chin-Chiang’s next step remains uncertain. With the polls
showing Shu holding a 13.84% lead over Ma Ying Jeon, the
PRC continues to mobilize their military forces. Imagery of
Zhangzhou and Whenzhou naval ports revealed several
amphibious assault squadrons were in the early stages of
uploading supplies. The US Pacific Command reports Fighter
Regiment patrols within the Taiwan Straits have increased by
50%. Xinhua has announced the PRC will be conducting a series
of missile tests within the Taiwan Strait. Xinhua’s reports have

8. been verified by USAF reconnaissance flights, which confirmed
missile and radar calibrations were being conducted by the 96th
Missile Regiment. PLA B-6 bombers from Luqiao airfield were
also imaged uploading air-to-surface munitions.
Brian Wood
The following templates should be used to enter the information
for Steps 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 8 (Step 7 will be reported in an
essay). Please download and save a copy of this template on
your computer.
Note: Grades for ACH Steps 2-6 will be entered directly into
the Educator system
ACH Step Two: Evidence For and Evidence Against Each
HypothesisACH Steps Three and Four: Assess Evidence for
“Diagnosticity” and Eliminate Evidence
ACH Steps Five and Six: (5) Eliminate Hypotheses” and (6)
Identify Linchpin Evidence
Hypothesis
Evidence
(H1a) List three pieces of evidence indicating the crisis will be
resolved diplomatically.
(H1)
Political
Solution

9. (H2)
Limited.
Intervention
(H3)
Direct Attack
Evidence #1
Linchpin
Taiwan's current President Chen Shui-bian (DPP) agreed to send
representatives to the mainland to discuss the "current
situation."
Comment: Shows the ability to try a diplomatic solution
(+)
(+)
(-)
Evidence #2
Shu Chin-Chiang claims over the past 55 years, Taiwan and
PRC have developed "unique, defining characteristics" causing
each "entity" to take "divergent paths."
(+)
(+)
(-)
Evidence #3

10. Hypothesis
Evidence
(H1b) List three pieces of evidence indicating the crisis will
not be resolved diplomatically.
(H1)
Political