The document discusses several topics related to the global economy and currencies. It provides projections for interest rates and GDP growth from the FOMC, ECB, and for various countries. It also discusses trends in commodity prices, currency exchange rates, bond yields, FDI flows, and other economic indicators for countries like the US, Eurozone, India. Key points mentioned are the flattening of the US yield curve pointing to long term uncertainties, expected tight crude oil market conditions, outlook for the Indian rupee, and monsoon rainfall forecast in India for 2018.
ChoiceBroking - Q2FY16 GDP growth at 7.4%; robust manufacturing expansion indicates revival in economic scenario. To read our monthly economic outlook please click here http://bit.ly/1QTqJKI
Interim Budget 2019, presented on Feb 1, held a few good surprises for the farmer community and the salaried classes but was largely in line with market expectations. Markets, which had already ended January 2019 on a flat note (up 0.5% for the month), remained largely unaffected by the Budget announcements. Read the document to know more.
Dear Investors,
September saw a spillover of the previous month’s equity
market correction. The main reason for this was the continuing
bleak global events, which also negated domestic macro greenshoots to a large extent. In the West, the possibility of a US Fed
rate hike lingers, keeping investors globally on their toes.
Amidst this global weakness, uncertainties of global markets
with respect to the Euro have reduced after Alexis Tsipras’
Syriza party returned to power once again in Greece, this time
with a majority. The Chinese government is also taking
initiatives like tightening trading rules on forex and stock
market to stabilize their economy. The slowdown in China in a
way has been India’s gain, which has led to India emerging as
the top destination for FDI investments, attracting $30 billion
by the end of June 2015.
Closer home, better looking green-shoots portray a recovering
economy. Industrial growth has been above 4% for the past 2
months, whereas retail inflation continues to remain lower.
Although there has been a double digit deficit in the rainfall
this year, RBI is not too much worried about the pressure on
the food prices given the comfort it has derived from the
actions by the government to manage supply. An addition to
these positives was RBI increasing the foreign investment limit
in central government securities. This will help create a new
pool of money to compensate for the lowering SLR imposed on
banks.
Markets rejoiced at the bonnes nouvelles (good news) of the
50 basis points rate cut by RBI at the fourth bi-monthly
meeting. The main objective behind this was to enhance
growth in the economy. Mr. Raghuram Rajan hopes that
investment should respond more strongly after some certainty
about the extent of monetary stimulus in pipeline, even if the
transmission is low. With this transmission, investments in the
real economy would increase. This announcement was then
followed by a highly ‘dovish’ stance, with the RBI repeating
that it would remain in an ‘accommodative mode’. The rate cut
has increased the cumulative rate cut this year to 125 bps. It is
hearting that banks like SBI has cut its base rate by 40 bps.
All in all, the month saw events that were unexpected, events
that created a yin-yang sentiment among investors and events
that made India shining more convincing. RBI has taken the
first bold step on its part. The question now is what the
government will do on its part to grow our economy!
Monthly statistical e-bulletin comprising a quick review of the economy and about 30 tables and some charts with the latest available economic/financial market indicators, both Indian and Global.
ChoiceBroking - Q2FY16 GDP growth at 7.4%; robust manufacturing expansion indicates revival in economic scenario. To read our monthly economic outlook please click here http://bit.ly/1QTqJKI
Interim Budget 2019, presented on Feb 1, held a few good surprises for the farmer community and the salaried classes but was largely in line with market expectations. Markets, which had already ended January 2019 on a flat note (up 0.5% for the month), remained largely unaffected by the Budget announcements. Read the document to know more.
Dear Investors,
September saw a spillover of the previous month’s equity
market correction. The main reason for this was the continuing
bleak global events, which also negated domestic macro greenshoots to a large extent. In the West, the possibility of a US Fed
rate hike lingers, keeping investors globally on their toes.
Amidst this global weakness, uncertainties of global markets
with respect to the Euro have reduced after Alexis Tsipras’
Syriza party returned to power once again in Greece, this time
with a majority. The Chinese government is also taking
initiatives like tightening trading rules on forex and stock
market to stabilize their economy. The slowdown in China in a
way has been India’s gain, which has led to India emerging as
the top destination for FDI investments, attracting $30 billion
by the end of June 2015.
Closer home, better looking green-shoots portray a recovering
economy. Industrial growth has been above 4% for the past 2
months, whereas retail inflation continues to remain lower.
Although there has been a double digit deficit in the rainfall
this year, RBI is not too much worried about the pressure on
the food prices given the comfort it has derived from the
actions by the government to manage supply. An addition to
these positives was RBI increasing the foreign investment limit
in central government securities. This will help create a new
pool of money to compensate for the lowering SLR imposed on
banks.
Markets rejoiced at the bonnes nouvelles (good news) of the
50 basis points rate cut by RBI at the fourth bi-monthly
meeting. The main objective behind this was to enhance
growth in the economy. Mr. Raghuram Rajan hopes that
investment should respond more strongly after some certainty
about the extent of monetary stimulus in pipeline, even if the
transmission is low. With this transmission, investments in the
real economy would increase. This announcement was then
followed by a highly ‘dovish’ stance, with the RBI repeating
that it would remain in an ‘accommodative mode’. The rate cut
has increased the cumulative rate cut this year to 125 bps. It is
hearting that banks like SBI has cut its base rate by 40 bps.
All in all, the month saw events that were unexpected, events
that created a yin-yang sentiment among investors and events
that made India shining more convincing. RBI has taken the
first bold step on its part. The question now is what the
government will do on its part to grow our economy!
Monthly statistical e-bulletin comprising a quick review of the economy and about 30 tables and some charts with the latest available economic/financial market indicators, both Indian and Global.
Team MGM & Company has compiled the attached Synopsis of Union Budget 2015.
Hope you will find this information useful. We are eagerly looking forward to your valuable comments & suggestions for future improvements.
Please note the attached abstract was complied yesterday just after announcement of Union Budget; we are expecting further clarity along with detailed interpretation & information to follow soon from the Government.
"Sell in May and go away‟ this old Wall Street adage has once again proved correct for most of the Global Markets which have witnessed a correction in the month of May. However, Indian markets took no cue from the above saying and continued to chug along through the month ending in a positive territory
( 1.7%).
Read the full document to know more.
Global bond yields are at historical lows which mean global bond prices have rallied across developed markets while S&P 500 is close to its historical high. This by itself is a dichotomy as bond prices and equity prices are not expected to rally together at the same point. Either of the two has to be true.
•Bond prices and yields are inversely related therefore, bond prices rally when yields and interest rates are expected to be low. Interest rates are expected to be low because growth prospects are low. This would entail the central banks to cut rates and because the demand for credits will be low due to the low growth prospects, the yields are expected to be low which explains the rally in bond prices. Considering this, the rally in the equity markets is not possible as there is no expectation for growth. This is the dichotomy that the global world is at particularly in the developed markets. In the light of the current scenario, either of the two has to give in i.e. either bond prices correct leading to normalcy in yields or equity markets give in.
The Nifty 50 Index was up by 1.1%. The positive returns of the index hides the heightened volatility witnessed in the month
of April. This was reflected in India NSE volatility index which spiked by ~27%. The outcome of the ongoing general
elections, concerns around oil prices and global geo-political developments mainly weighed on the investor sentiments.
Read the full document to know more.
From the Desk of the CEO.
The heat is on. While many of us have been vacationing in cooler climes, the Sensex has kept itself rather busy, gaining another 4% during the month of May. The upmove has come largely on the back of better-than-expected corporate results and expectations of a good monsoon. Markets are also taking cognisance of various indicators like improved auto sales, higher steel and cement offtake, public infrastructure spending, etc. which are positive signs of an imminent economic recovery.
Crude prices have silently crept up and are currently hovering at the $50 level, almost double from the January lows. So despite the adverse implications of higher crude prices on the Indian economy, there seems to be some positive correlation between crude prices and the equity markets. Though this pattern may not have always played out in the last few decades, the first few months of 2016 certainly seem to indicate so. The main reason for this is the significantly high weightage that the Energy sector has in indices the world over. When oil plummeted to sub-$30 levels, it seriously impacted the profitability of some of the world’s biggest corporations, not only causing their stock prices to fall sharply, but also impacting the broader markets in general. It also indicated a global recessionary trend, thus affecting investor sentiment and causing them to become nervous and risk-averse. The bounce back in crude has brought the price to a level that makes it profitable for companies to drill, creating a sense of well-being for both, the Energy sector as well as the countries whose economies are dependent solely on oil. Where crude prices go from here remains to be seen.
After several quarters of benign inflation, the WPI rose to 0.34% while retail inflation soared to 5.39% in April 2016. This, coupled with higher oil prices would make it difficult for Governor Rajan to announce a rate cut at the next RBI policy meeting on 7th June. Across the globe however, Janet Yellen’s comments on improving economic data in the US has the markets believing that a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve is a high possibility during its next meeting in mid-June. The outcome of Britain’s referendum on Brexit is also an event that we will be closely watching.
With markets factoring in all the good news for now, conventional logic says that short term investors need to be cautious. But when the stock market catches momentum, all negative predictions may be proven wrong.
There are of course, many more bulls than bears when it comes to a 1 year plus view. Long term investors may continue their investments and look to buy into any dips.
Wish all of you a happy monsoon season.
Affect of Money supply on inflation and GDP.................how our GDP and inflation vary with our Indian economy going up or down...................know thru did prez.........
Triggers to watch out for:
1. Breaking down GDP Numbers
2. Equity Valuations Update
3. Why ICICI Prudential Accrual Funds
4. Investment Philosophy
Have a detailed insight into a monthly equity and fixed income market outlook.
Read the full document to know more.
On the domestic front, Indian equities corrected sharply post the FY20 Union Budget announcement on 5th July 2019 due to uncertainty emanating from a couple of proposals pertaining to: 1) Increase in taxes for FPIs accessing the Indian equity markets through the ‘Trust’ route; and 2) potential supply side pressures for equity markets (increase in free float requirement from 25% to 35% coupled with relaxation on minimum threshold of 51% Government ownership for PSUs including the shareholding of Government controlled institutions). Post the budget, equity and bond markets have witnessed divergent trends.
Read the full document to know more.
Team MGM & Company has compiled the attached Synopsis of Union Budget 2015.
Hope you will find this information useful. We are eagerly looking forward to your valuable comments & suggestions for future improvements.
Please note the attached abstract was complied yesterday just after announcement of Union Budget; we are expecting further clarity along with detailed interpretation & information to follow soon from the Government.
"Sell in May and go away‟ this old Wall Street adage has once again proved correct for most of the Global Markets which have witnessed a correction in the month of May. However, Indian markets took no cue from the above saying and continued to chug along through the month ending in a positive territory
( 1.7%).
Read the full document to know more.
Global bond yields are at historical lows which mean global bond prices have rallied across developed markets while S&P 500 is close to its historical high. This by itself is a dichotomy as bond prices and equity prices are not expected to rally together at the same point. Either of the two has to be true.
•Bond prices and yields are inversely related therefore, bond prices rally when yields and interest rates are expected to be low. Interest rates are expected to be low because growth prospects are low. This would entail the central banks to cut rates and because the demand for credits will be low due to the low growth prospects, the yields are expected to be low which explains the rally in bond prices. Considering this, the rally in the equity markets is not possible as there is no expectation for growth. This is the dichotomy that the global world is at particularly in the developed markets. In the light of the current scenario, either of the two has to give in i.e. either bond prices correct leading to normalcy in yields or equity markets give in.
The Nifty 50 Index was up by 1.1%. The positive returns of the index hides the heightened volatility witnessed in the month
of April. This was reflected in India NSE volatility index which spiked by ~27%. The outcome of the ongoing general
elections, concerns around oil prices and global geo-political developments mainly weighed on the investor sentiments.
Read the full document to know more.
From the Desk of the CEO.
The heat is on. While many of us have been vacationing in cooler climes, the Sensex has kept itself rather busy, gaining another 4% during the month of May. The upmove has come largely on the back of better-than-expected corporate results and expectations of a good monsoon. Markets are also taking cognisance of various indicators like improved auto sales, higher steel and cement offtake, public infrastructure spending, etc. which are positive signs of an imminent economic recovery.
Crude prices have silently crept up and are currently hovering at the $50 level, almost double from the January lows. So despite the adverse implications of higher crude prices on the Indian economy, there seems to be some positive correlation between crude prices and the equity markets. Though this pattern may not have always played out in the last few decades, the first few months of 2016 certainly seem to indicate so. The main reason for this is the significantly high weightage that the Energy sector has in indices the world over. When oil plummeted to sub-$30 levels, it seriously impacted the profitability of some of the world’s biggest corporations, not only causing their stock prices to fall sharply, but also impacting the broader markets in general. It also indicated a global recessionary trend, thus affecting investor sentiment and causing them to become nervous and risk-averse. The bounce back in crude has brought the price to a level that makes it profitable for companies to drill, creating a sense of well-being for both, the Energy sector as well as the countries whose economies are dependent solely on oil. Where crude prices go from here remains to be seen.
After several quarters of benign inflation, the WPI rose to 0.34% while retail inflation soared to 5.39% in April 2016. This, coupled with higher oil prices would make it difficult for Governor Rajan to announce a rate cut at the next RBI policy meeting on 7th June. Across the globe however, Janet Yellen’s comments on improving economic data in the US has the markets believing that a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve is a high possibility during its next meeting in mid-June. The outcome of Britain’s referendum on Brexit is also an event that we will be closely watching.
With markets factoring in all the good news for now, conventional logic says that short term investors need to be cautious. But when the stock market catches momentum, all negative predictions may be proven wrong.
There are of course, many more bulls than bears when it comes to a 1 year plus view. Long term investors may continue their investments and look to buy into any dips.
Wish all of you a happy monsoon season.
Affect of Money supply on inflation and GDP.................how our GDP and inflation vary with our Indian economy going up or down...................know thru did prez.........
Triggers to watch out for:
1. Breaking down GDP Numbers
2. Equity Valuations Update
3. Why ICICI Prudential Accrual Funds
4. Investment Philosophy
Have a detailed insight into a monthly equity and fixed income market outlook.
Read the full document to know more.
On the domestic front, Indian equities corrected sharply post the FY20 Union Budget announcement on 5th July 2019 due to uncertainty emanating from a couple of proposals pertaining to: 1) Increase in taxes for FPIs accessing the Indian equity markets through the ‘Trust’ route; and 2) potential supply side pressures for equity markets (increase in free float requirement from 25% to 35% coupled with relaxation on minimum threshold of 51% Government ownership for PSUs including the shareholding of Government controlled institutions). Post the budget, equity and bond markets have witnessed divergent trends.
Read the full document to know more.
E-UPDates—A Monthly Statistical Bulletin of Economic IndicatorsEcofin Surge
Monthly statistical e-bulletin comprising a quick review of the economy and about 30 tables and some charts with the latest available economic/financial market indicators, both Indian and Global.
We believe that the divergence between Value and Growth stocks continues to prevail, & that volatility is a factor which is inherent in equity as an asset class.
Government’s release of Rs 86.55 billion to certain
banks for preferential allotment of shares, hopes of more reform
measures by the government in the upcoming Budget, and
sustained inflows from the foreign institutional investors (FIIs)
augured well for the local indices.
Read the full document to know more.
Key Takeaways:
- Overview of the FSR
- Global Macro Financial Developments
- Economic Growth and Financial Conditions in India
- Performance of Scheduled Commercial Banks
Triggers to watch our for:
1. Global & Domestic Macro Scenario
2. Equity Valuations Update
3. Decoding Union Budget 2019-20
4. Why ICICI Prudential Accrual Funds
Have a detailed insight into a monthly equity and fixed income market outlook.
Read the full document to know more.
Indian equity indices ended lower in May 2020 owing to
concerns about rise in domestic Covid-19 cases and extension of the nationwide lockdown. Benchmarks S&P BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 declined 3.84% and 2.84%, respectively in May 2020.
Annual Fixed Income Outlook 2022 | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fundiciciprumf
Shifting Sands, a year of active management - In the Fixed Income space, currently there are lot of dynamic elements at play. With limited scope for rate cuts, we recommend investing in Floating Rate Bonds which may benefit from rising interest rates. We recommend investing in spread assets with an aim to benefit from higher carry.
Current Economic Outlook & Protecting Credit ExposureAli Mohiuddin
This brief presentation looks at the recent market correction in light of historical corrections and the probability of the market entering the bull-market territory in the near future. By connecting the current economic and geo-political environment globally, it looks at the possible triggers for a more severe correction in the medium term. The presentation then focuses on the GCC Region and analyzes the possibility of an economic downturn in the GCC market. Finally, it briefly gives an opinion on how to protect credit exposure in this environment with industry outlooks for a few select industries.
• Owing to growth concerns, Global Central Banks are reducing interest rates. The Reserve Bank of India
(RBI) too is expected to follow suits and may deliver 25-50 bps rate cut
• Central Banks are expected to continue with the loose monetary policy
• Food inflation is beginning to see some moderation although CPI Inflation continues to remain above
RBI‟s comfort zone. RBI‟s operation twist and LTRO too bodes well for the bond markets
• In light of the above factors, we have added duration across our portfolios as we have become positive
on the duration segment in the near term
• We continue to believe that the best strategy would be to create portfolio maturity in the range of 2-5
years
• We also continue to remain positive on the accrual space, as the divergence between Gsec/AAA & AA/A
yields persist.
October 2018 saw the Indian markets tumble by about 5 per cent, in a month that saw heavy volatility in the equity markets owing to on-going concerns regarding weakening currency, rising crude oil prices, widening fiscal deficit, along with muted earnings performance and the liquidity crunch-woes in the NBFC sector.
Ang Chong Yi Navigating Singaporean Flavors: A Journey from Cultural Heritage...Ang Chong Yi
In the heart of Singapore, where tradition meets modernity, He embarks on a culinary adventure that transcends borders. His mission? Ang Chong Yi Exploring the Cultural Heritage and Identity in Singaporean Cuisine. To explore the rich tapestry of flavours that define Singaporean cuisine while embracing innovative plant-based approaches. Join us as we follow his footsteps through bustling markets, hidden hawker stalls, and vibrant street corners.
Roti Bank Hyderabad: A Beacon of Hope and NourishmentRoti Bank
One of the top cities of India, Hyderabad is the capital of Telangana and home to some of the biggest companies. But the other aspect of the city is a huge chunk of population that is even deprived of the food and shelter. There are many people in Hyderabad that are not having access to
Key Features of The Italian Restaurants.pdfmenafilo317
Filomena, a renowned Italian restaurant, is renowned for its authentic cuisine, warm environment, and exceptional service. Recognized for its homemade pasta, traditional dishes, and extensive wine selection, we provide a true taste of Italy. Its commitment to quality ingredients and classic recipes has made it a adored dining destination for Italian food enthusiasts.
Piccola Cucina is regarded as the best restaurant in Brooklyn and as the best Italian restaurant in NYC. We offer authentic Italian cuisine with a Sicilian touch that elevates the entire fine dining experience. We’re the first result when someone searches for where to eat in Brooklyn or the best restaurant near me.
At Taste Of Middle East, we believe that food is not just about satisfying hunger, it's about experiencing different cultures and traditions. Our restaurant concept is based on selecting famous dishes from Iran, Turkey, Afghanistan, and other Arabic countries to give our customers an authentic taste of the Middle East
4. 4
– While divergent monetary policies shall short term Dollar
price sentiments, flattening of the yield curve in US point to
long term uncertainties
– US yield curve has flattened so much that the spread has
fallen to the lowest since 2007. The slope of the yield curve
has fallen to 2005 levels.
– However, the yield curve is yet to invert
-0.005
0.000
0.005
0.010
0.015
0.020
0.025
0.030
0.035 Slope of the US yield curve
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0 US treasury yield curve spread
10yr - 3m 10yr - 2yr
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5 Euro Zone treasury yield curve spread
10y-3m 10y-2y
5. 5
EURUSD prices are likely to hold below USD 1.20 on initial price recovery and resume it’s prevailing downtrend towards
USD 1.13 in the coming 5 to 6 months ahead of any significant recovery.
7. 7
– Strong demand growth expected in 2019
supported by improving economic activity in US
and EU along with stable growth in non-OECD
demand majorly driven by India.
– Demand growth outpacing supply growth is likely
to keep market tight in coming year remaining
supportive to crude oil prices in the long term.
96.40 96.70
97.38
98.59
99.25
94.74
96.07
97.33
98.85
99.701.66
0.64
0.05
-0.26
-0.45
2015 2016 2017 2018e 2019p
Global oil supply-demand balance
Total supply (MBpd) Total demand (MBpd) Supply-Demand gap
Source: IEA, TransGraph
estimates
97.1 97.7 97.9 98.3 98.3 98.8 99.0
97.1 98.0 98.0 98.3 98.0 99.2 99.9
-0.01
-0.27
-0.16
0.00
0.33
-0.44
-0.93
AMJ 2017 JAS 2017 OND2017 JFM 2018 AMJ 2018e JAS 2018p OND2018p
World oil Supply-Demand Balance Quarterly
Worldoil supply (MBpd) World oil demand (MBpd)
S-DBalance
Source: IEA, TG Estimates
0.30
1.32
0.68
1.26
1.21
1.52
0.66
0.85
Change in Supply Change in Demand
Y-o-Y Change in oil supply and demand (MBpd)
2016 2017 2018e 2019pSource: IEA, TransGraph estimates
8. 8
– US sanctions against Iran after pulling out of the
nuclear deal likely to impact the production in the
long term.
– Slump in Venezuela’s crude oil output amid
economic constraints and US sanctions.
– Concerns in the market over the drop in Venezuela
crude oil production as well as potential decline in
Iran, led to decision by Russia, Saudi Arabia and UAE
to increase crude oil production gradually by about 1
MBpd, signaling end of production cuts.
– OPEC group meeting on June 22nd likely to provide
road map for increase in output
– US crude oil production, buoyed by flourishing Shale
oil production amid firm trend in prices, likely to
continue the growth trend in coming year.
0.35 0.31
0.00
-0.51-0.49
-0.26
-0.49
-0.09
0.16
-0.39
0.03
0.21
-0.55
0.50
1.35
0.70
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2016 2017 2018 2019
Crude oil productionincremental change (MBpd)
Iran Venezuela Saudi Arabia US
2.94 3.96 4.58 4.23 4.70 5.70 6.404.52 4.79 4.83 4.62 4.65 5.00 5.00
7.46
8.75
9.41
8.86
9.35
10.70
11.40
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018e 2019p
UScrude oil production overview
Shale oil prod. (MBpd) Conventional prod (MBpd) Total prod (MBpd)
10. 10
– FII outflows mainly from debt markets in the
recent days, on account of higher US treasury
yields, weighed on Rupee.
– Equity and Debt markets witnessed outflows of
USD 1.5 billion and USD 2.9 billion respectively
during May month in addition to a combined
outflow of USD 2.357 billion in April month (of
which USD 1.5 billion was from debt).
– This shall keep the overall FPI in the Bop negative
for the AMJ quarter even as the June month is
likely to see some FII inflows.
– Meanwhile, FDI demand moderated in the recent
months augmenting the weak capital account
scenario. Moving ahead, however, FDI is expected
to improve brought about by normalization of the
structural reforms that were implemented earlier.
1.2 1.4 1.3
4.7
6.0 6.3
4.2 4.5
2.0
4.1
1.0 0.6
1.8
3.8
1.6
4.0
8.6
0.6
1.6
-1.3
4.3
1.8
3.8
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
India net FDI flows (USD bln)
2016-17
2017-18
1.2
0.6 0.8
-2.0 -1.8
0.5
3.0
0.5
2.2
-1.4
1.8
-0.8
-1.5
3.0
4.0
2.9
2.4
0.2
2.6
0.1 0.4
1.3
0.0
-1.4 -1.5
-2.9
India FII flows (USD bln)
Equity Debt
11. 11
– RBI had raised the interest rates by 25bp during June monetary policy meeting.
– The recent uptick in inflation to above 4.5% levels, core inflation at 5.6%, and heavy FII outflows from
debt markets has resulted in this tightening monetary policy stance from RBI ahead of their intended
timeline. Overall monetary policy stance remains ‘neutral’.
– RBI forecasted H1 2018-19 growths at 7.5% to 7.6%. Upbeat growth forecasts and the rate hike shall
attract FIIs, mainly into debt, and support the Rupee price sentiments.
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Consumer Price Inflation(YoY)
Inflation (%)
Core Inflation (%) 5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5 Indian treasury yields
364-Day t bill
10-Year g sec
12. 12
*Note: Others include net commercial borrowings, short term loans, banking capital,
Rupee debt service and other capitals
India Balance of Payments (USD Bn)
Item 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19p
Current Account
Merchandise -112.44 -160.04 -170.00
Invisibles 97.15 111.32 118.00
Total Current Account -15.29 -48.72 -52.00
GDP 2275 2599 2900
CAD as % GDP -0.7% -1.9% -1.8%
Capital Account
FDI 35.61 30.29 40.00
FPI 7.61 22.11 10.00
Others* -6.73 38.99 13.50
Total Capital Account 36.49 91.39 63.50
Balance of Payments 21.55 43.57 11.50
Primary Balance (CAD+FDI) 20.32 -18.43 -12.00
Current Account
– Indian basket Crude oil price up by 18% last
fiscal (56.4 vs 47.6)
– CAD to remain widened at about USD 52
billion during 2018-19
Capital Account
– FDI inflows have moderated in FY 18 but were
more than offset by the FPIs
– FII inflows to moderate but remain at USD 10
billion (currently USD -7 billion)
– Forex reserves at USD 415 billion and positive
BoP to remain supportive for Rupee for the
long term
13. 13
Sector
2017-18
RE
2017-18
Actuals
2018-19
BE
April 17 April 18
April 18
as % of BE
Revenue Receipts 15.05 14.25 17.26 0.35 0.71 4.1%
Non-debt Capital Receipts 1.17 1.16 0.92 0.01 0.01 0.9%
Total Receipts 16.23 15.51 18.18 0.37 0.71 3.9%
Revenue Expenditure 19.45 18.79 21.42 2.13 1.77 8.2%
Capital Expenditure 2.73 2.63 3.00 0.29 0.47 15.6%
Total Expenditure 22.18 21.43 24.42 2.42 2.23 9.1%
Fiscal Deficit 5.95 5.92 6.24 -2.06 -1.52 24.3%
Source: CGA, All units in lakh crore unless mentioned otherwise. BE= Budget Estimate, RE= Revises Estimate
– The government managed to meet its revised fiscal deficit target for 2017-18. In February, the government’s fiscal deficit was
running at 120% of the revised target.
– RBI Boost To Non-Tax Revenue (Non-tax revenue in the April-March period was at 97% of the RE whereas until Feb, it was at
60%) and expenditure Savings (Capital expenditure, which had been front-loaded to support growth, settled lower at 96.7% at
the end of March compared to 108.9% in February) have aided in bringing the deficit down.
– Expenditure savings had materialized through the railways, which has managed to meet some of its expenses through other
sources, and reclassification of the INR 50 thousand crore allocation to the FCI which had been earlier classified as capital
expenditure but was later converted to a ‘ways and means advance’ that needs to be returned within a financial year.
14. 14
– Total subsidy expenditure by central government is budgeted to be increased by 15% to INR 2.64 lakh
crore for 2018 – 19 despite petrol and diesel deregulation
– Subsidy expenditure constitutes to 10.8% of the overall central government expenditure of 24.42 lakh
crore for 2018 – 19 (both revenue and capital)
– 10.3% in 2016 – 17 and 10.4% in 2017 – 18
– Of the total subsidy expenditure, 21% increase is coming from food subsidy
– Food subsidy 1.4 lakh crore to 1.69 lakh crore | Fertilizer subsidy 0.65 to 0.7 | Petroleum subsidy
0.24 to 0.25
2.04
2.30
2.64
10.3% 10.4%
10.8%
2016-17 2017-18 RE 2018-19BE
India central govt subsidy expenditure
Susidy expenditure (lakh crore) % Share in total expenditure
0.66 0.65 0.70
1.10
1.40
1.69
0.28
0.24
0.25
2016-17 2017-18 RE 2018-19BE
India central govt subsidy expenditure (lakh crore)
Fertiliser Food Petroleum
15. 15
Monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 97% of the Long Period Average (LPA). The LPA of the season
rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 is 89 cm. Forecast also suggests maximum
probability for normal monsoon rainfall (96-104% of LPA) and low probability for deficient rainfall during
the season.
Actual monsoon being projected to be closer to a normal one (LPA), agri growth is likely to remain
buoyant as was seen in the case of last two years and 2013.
IMD will issue the update in early June, 2018 as a part of the second stage forecast. Along with the
updated forecast, separate forecasts for the monthly (July and August) rainfall over the country as a whole
and seasonal (June-September) rainfall over the four geographical regions of India will also be issued.
99% 98% 95% 93%
106%
96% 97%93%
106%
88% 86%
97% 95%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Monsoon trends
April forecast Actual
1%
7%
-3% -2%
8%
4%
7%
-6%
12%
14%
3%
5%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
OND Agri growth (%) vs Rainfall departure (normal -
actual)
OND GDP growth Railfall departure
16. 16
USDINR prices are likely to hold below INR 69.25 on further depreciation and appreciate towards INR 66 in the coming 3
to 4 months ahead of resuming the depreciation phase in the subsequent months.
18. 18
India Rapeseed Balance sheet 2017-18 2018-19
Beginning Stock 1.1 3.4
Production 68.55 65.5
Marketable Surplus 63.55 60.5
Import 0 0
Total Supply 64.65 63.6
Crush 61.25 61.6
Exports 0 0
Total Demand 61.25 61.6
End Stock 3.4 2.3
All figures in Lakh tons (MY – Mar-Feb)
• Mustard crop production for 2018-19 (Mar-Feb) is estimated at 65.5 LT vs.
last year’s 68.55 LT – down 4.5% Y-o-Y.
• All India acreage down 5% Y-o-Y – Acreage of largest producing state
(Rajasthan) down 25% – Lower acreages compensated by better yield Y-o-Y.
19. 19
• Despite a slow start for the season, arrivals and crushing for 2018-19 have managed to out pace
last year levels till June.
13.8
25.8
33.8
38.0
41.2
45.2
49.4
53.6
56.8 58.9 60.3 61.4
12.2
23.0
32.0
38.3
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Mustard Arrivals (Lakh Ton)
2017-18 2018-19
11.0
20.0
27.1
32.6
36.8
41.4
46.4
50.8
54.4
57.8 59.4 61.2
10.8
19.8
28.8
36.3
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Mustard Crushing (Lakh Ton)
2017-18 2018-19
20. 20
• Monthly average crush margin for Khachi Ghani and
Expeller oil were noted highest in two years, as
mustard seed prices this year have remained
moderately weak as compared to past 1-2 years.
• Export demand for meal and restrictions to
import of veg-oils can also be noted as factors
boosting the mustard crushing this season.
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Crush Margin for Khachi Ghani (INR/T)
2016 2017 2018
-2500
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Crush Margin for Expeller (INR/T)
2016 2017 2018
33.0
38.0
43.0
48.0
53.0
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-16
Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Jan-18
Mar-18
May-18
Thousands
Average Monthly Mustard Seed Price
@ Jaipur (INR/T)
21. 21
-100.0
-80.0
-60.0
-40.0
-20.0
0.0
200.00
220.00
240.00
260.00
280.00
300.00
Rapeseed Meal Competition at SE Asia
India vs. Canada (Monthly average price in $/T)
FOB Vancouver FAS Kandla Ind-Can (RHS)
• Mustard exports during 2017-18 (Apr-Mar) were
157% up Y-o-Y.
• Exports in AMJ’18 are highest since 2014-15
• Indian mustard extract prices continue to remain
competitive with Canadian prices at South East
Asian destinations, which would continue to boost
exports ahead.
277
12 3 20 0
168
4 12 15 1
263
130
92
19 27
South Korea Thailand Vietnam Taiwan Bangladesh
Annual Exports To SE Asia Destination (KT)
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
160.7
118.6
32.8
19.1
60.9
76.7
38.3 43.0
150.9 149.8
161.3
100.6
188.7 (E)
AMJ JAS OND JFM
Mustard Meal Exports (1000'T)
2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19
22. 22
670.0
690.0
710.0
730.0
750.0
770.0
790.0
810.0
Blend prices (INR/10kg)
Mustard oil Mustard+SBO Blend
Mustard + Olien Blend Mustard + RBO Blend
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
Mustard 80:20 Blend Margins (INR/10kg)
SBO Blend Olien Blend RBO Blend
• Blending of mustard oil with RBO, Palm Olien and
Soybean oil at 80:20 ratio yielded healthy margins
till Q3 of 2017.
• Margins shrink noted between Nov’17 to Apr’18
when import duty on veg-oils was hiked.
• Rise in Mustard oil prices at Jaipur and drop in
prices of other veg-oils during May-Jun’18 period
has allowed margins to recover recent few weeks.
23. 23
Rapeseed Cake + Meal Balances (Mar-Feb) – In Lakh tons
Particulars 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19
Beginning Stock 0.27 0.09 0.51
Production 29.58 38.10 36.96
Imports 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total Supply 29.85 38.19 37.47
Exports 2.14 4.38 5.50
Consumption
Domestic
27.62 33.30 31.80
Total Demand 29.76 37.68 37.30
End Stock 0.09 0.51 0.17
Rapeseed Oil Balances (Mar-Feb) – In Lakh tons
Particulars 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19
Beginning Stock 0.18 0.13 1.18
Production 19.23 24.77 24.02
Solvent Exracted Oil 1.5 1.8 1.68
Imports 4.24 2.80 3.55
Total Supply 25.15 29.49 30.44
Exports 0.00 0.00 0.00
Consumption edible 24.80 28.00 29.40
Consumption Industrial 0.22 0.31 0.27
Total Demand 25.02 28.31 29.67
End Stock 0.13 1.18 0.77
• Edible oil stocks are projected to stay tight for 2018-19,
despite higher imports, as production is lower Y-o-Y.
Limited production and rising consumption leave mainly two options to suffice the supply side
– Blending and Imports.
24. 24
6.5
8.0 7.8 8.5
14.9 15.1 14.9
16.1
21.3
22.4 22.9 23.9
2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 (E) 2018-19 (P)
India Edible-Oil Position (in Million tons)
Production Imports Consumption
7.7
9.1 8.7 9.1
8.2 8.6
1.8
2.8
4.3
3.4 3.6 3.9
1.5 1.5 1.4
2.1 2.7 3.1
11.4
14.0
14.9 15.1 14.9
16.1
2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 (E) 2018-19 (P)
Annual Edible-oil Imports (Million tons)
Palm Oil Soy Oil Sun Oil Total
• For 2018-19, India edible oil consumption is projected up 4% Y-o-Y around 23.9 Million tons.
• With domestic production of around 8.5 Million tons (up near 10% Y-o-Y), imports are needed to rise by
around 8% from last year to around 16.1 Million tons.
26. 26
BMD CPO 3M Futures prices are likely to extend its weakness towards MYR 2180/2130 in the near term ahead of a
recovery towards MYR 2500 in the coming 4 to 6 months.
27. 27
CME Soy oil 1M futures prices are likely to extend its weakness towards USc 28 in the near term and witness a recovery
towards USc 31.50 in the coming 4 to 6 months.
28. 28
Argentina Soy Oil 1M FOB prices are likely to weaken further towards USD 665/655 in the near term and witness a
steady recovery towards USD 740/750 in the coming 4-6 months.
29. 29
NCDEX Soybean oil Futures prices are prices are likely to test the support of INR 725/720 in the coming 1 to 2 months
ahead of a recovery towards INR 800 in the coming 4-6 months.
30. 30
NCDEX Soybean futures prices are likely to test INR 3250 on initial 3 to 4 months weakness and recover towards INR
3750 in the subsequent 2months.
31. 31
Soymeal Indore spot prices are likely to hold below INR 31000 on any gains and trade weak towards INR 26000 ahead of
a recovery towards INR 31000 in the coming 4 to 6 months.
32. 32
NCDEX Rapeseed futures prices are likely to hold above INR 3869 on any weakness and extend gains towards INR
4400/4500 in the coming 4 to 5 months ahead of turning weak.
33. 33
Mustard Oil Jaipur, prices are likely to hold above INR 800 on any weakness and trade higher towards INR 870 in the
coming 4 to 5 months ahead of turning weak in the subsequent months.
34. 34
Rapeseed Extract Jaipur, prices are likely to consolidate and form base around INR 13000 ahead of gradually inching
higher towards INR 17000 in the coming 4 to 5months and turn weak subsequently.
35. 35
Rapeseed Meal Lowerrhine 1M Fwd, prices are likely to hold above EUR 200/195 on further weakness ahead of
gradually inching higher towards EUR 225 in the coming 5 to 6 months.
36. 36
Rapeseed Oil Rotterdam 1M Fwd, prices are likely to stay above EUR 700 on any weakness and trade higher towards EUR
800/820 in the coming 5 to 6 months.