Monthly Market Outlook - July 2019

Monthly Market Outlook
May 2019
Equity & Fixed Income Outlook
Monthly Market Outlook
July 2019

Global Indices Performance
• Russian markets rose 7.3%
during the month owing to a rise
in crude prices (Russia’s key
export) and on easing tensions
of US sanctions on Russia.
• Globally, markets ended in a
positive terrain except India
which declined by 0.8%. The
markets were in the
consolidation phase as the focus
shifted towards the upcoming
budget and measures to counter
growth concerns.
Germany - DAX Index; China - SSE Composite Index; France - CAC 40 Index; Japan - Nikkei; Eurozone - Euronext 100; Hong Kong - HangSeng; US - Dow Jones; Singapore - Strait Times; Russia - RTS Index; Indonesia - Jakarta
Composite Index; U.K. - FTSE; South Korea - Kospi; Brazil - Ibovespa Sao Paulo Index; Indonesia – Jakarta Composite Index; Switzerland – Swiss Market Index; Taiwan – Taiwan Stock Exchange Corporation; India – S&P BSE
Sensex; Returns in % terms. Data Source: MFI & ACEMF; Returns are absolute returns for the index calculated between May 31, 2019 – June 30, 2019. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future 2
7.3 7.2
6.5 6.4 6.1 5.7
4.8
4.4 4.1 3.9 3.7
3.3 2.8 2.4 2.2
-0.8-2
0
2
4
6
8
Russia
US
Singapore
France
HongKong
Germany
Europe
SouthKorea
Brazil
Switzerland
UK
Japan
China
Indonesia
Taiwan
India
Returns(%)
Returns Performance - June 2019

Sectoral Indices Performance - India
All indices are of S&P BSE and carry the prefix of S&P BSE; Abbreviated CD - S&P BSE Consumer Durables; CG - S&P BSE Capital Goods; FMCG - S&P BSE Fast Moving Consumer Goods; HC - S&P BSE Health Care; Infra. - S&P BSE
India Infrastructure; IT - S&P BSE Information Technology, NBFC – Non-banking Finance Companies. Data Source: MFI, ACEMF ; Returns are absolute returns for the TRI variant of the index calculated between
May 31, 2019 – June 30, 2019; YTD – Year To Date. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future
3
• Power sector outperformance
was largely driven by decline
in overdues by few power
generating companies
• Oil & Gas Sector
underperformed owing to low
refining margins and
moderation of margins on a
YTD basis
5.8
4.4
3.3
0.0
0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -1.2 -1.2 -1.9 -2.7 -2.9 -3.1
-5.1 -5.7-8
-4
0
4
8
CD
Power
Metal
Realty
IT
CG
Finance
Bankex
FMCG
Infra
BasicMaterials
Telecom
Auto
HC
Energy
Oil&Gas
Returns(%)
Returns Performance - June 2019

OUR EQUITY OUTLOOK:
NEUTRAL ON SHORT TERM OUTLOOK.
POSITIVE OUTLOOK FOR LONG TERM.
4

Global & Domestic Macro Scenario
5

Short Term Concerns
6
Burgeoning Fiscal
Deficit
Rise in Crude Oil
Prices
Slow Progression
of Monsoon
Consumption
Slowdown & Ongoing
Agrarian Crisis
Slowdown in
Global Growth
Geo-Political Tensions
i.e. US -China Trade
Issues, US-Iran Issues

7
Source: Yes Securities. US – United States of America. PMI – Purchasing Managers’ Index
Global Growth
• In the US, weakness is
currently seen in Housing, Car
Sales & Manufacturing
• Consumer Spending rose at
1.2% in Q1, down from 2.5% in
Q4 2018
• Fed Atlanta Projects US Q2
GDP is estimated to grow 2%
(q/q) compared to 3% in the
quarter prior
• China is looking at a calibrated
weakening in Yuan to
counterbalance the pain of US
tariffs
• The PMI reading for June was
below 50 (49.4) lowest reading
since January indicating a
slowdown
• New orders fell whereas exports
are showing a downward trend
• European Commission projects
Eurozone GDP to grow at 1.2%
below the 1.9% growth in 2018
• European Central Bank is now
open to rate cuts and new
asset purchases

Global Bond Yields
8
13.08
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
Feb-17
Jun-17
Oct-17
Feb-18
Jun-18
Oct-18
Feb-19
Jun-19
Negative Yield ($ Trillion)
Total outstanding debt globally in negative yield zone is close to US $ 13.08 Trillion out of US $ 55 Trillion
Source: Barclays Research. Data as of July 03, 2019

German Bund 10 Year Yields
9
German bund yields declined well below the ECB‟s deposit rate
-0.36
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Jul-01
Jul-03
Jul-05
Jul-07
Jul-09
Jul-11
Jul-13
Jul-15
Jul-17
Jul-19
German Bund 10 Year Yield (%)
ECB – European Central Bank. Source: Barclays Research. Data as of July 05, 2019

-0.15
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Jul-01
Jul-03
Jul-05
Jul-07
Jul-09
Jul-11
Jul-13
Jul-15
Jul-17
Jul-19
Japan Government Bond Yields (%)
Japan Government 10 Year Bond Yields
10
Japan 10 Year Government bond is trading well below it‟s long term average

World Market Cap – Equity
11
81.07
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
Jul-10
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jul-19
World Market Cap (US $ Trillion)
Negative yields in the debt space, created a conducive environment for other aggressive
assets like Equity despite valuations and growth concerns

Equity can turn volatile, if debt yields turn
positive (US 10 Year Yields)
12
The show can
continue until the
yields do not spike
back, like what
happened during
2013 taper tantrums
1.3
1.8
2.3
2.8
3.3
3.8
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jul-19
US 10-Y Yields
Taper
Tantrums
US – United States of America. Source: Barclays Research. Data as of July 05, 2019

13
Source: CRISIL Research; Data as of March 31, 2019; GDP – Gross Domestic Product
7.0%
7.7% 8.0%
7.0% 6.6%
5.8%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
Q3 FY18 Q4 FY18 Q1 FY19 Q2 FY19 Q3 FY19 Q4 FY19
GDP(%)
GDP Data
Indian Economy slowed down in Q4FY19 to 5.8% from 6.6% in Q3FY19 and 7.7% in Q4FY18. Activities related to
capital expenditure slowed down which led to the fall in GDP
Domestic Growth

14
Source: J P Morgan; LPA – Long Period Average
Though the El-Nino conditions have reportedly weakened, the countrywide rainfall deficit stands at
33% on aggregate basis (June 1 - June 30), stoking further growth concerns
Slow Progression of Monsoon
Region wise Rainfall Trends - % Departure from Long Period Average (June 1 - June 30, 2019)
Actual (mm) Normal (mm) % Departure from LPA
All India 112.1 166.9 -33%
East & North East India 218.2 347.1 -37%
North West India 51.0 75.3 -32%
Central India 117.3 169.2 -31%
South Peninsula 112.8 160.2 -30%

15Source: Morgan Stanley Research.
Private Consumption showing a downtrend in growth
High Frequency Indicators – Private Consumption
22.3%
17.2%
-6.7%
37.5%
1.6%
-20.5%-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
YoYGrowth(%)
Auto Sales (YoY Growth)
Domestic 2 Wheeler Sales (YoY Growth) Domestic Passenger Vehicle Sales (YoY Growth)

16
Source: Morgan Stanley Research.
Number of Air Passengers Flying have been declining Year-On-Year
High Frequency Indicators – Air Traffic
21.7%
15.6%
-5.4%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
YoYGrowth
Air Passengers Flown

17
Source: CRISIL Research; Data as of June 30, 2019; GDP – Gross Domestic Product
Crude oil prices have been on the rise +9% from the lows of June. This might lead to inflation and may also
impact trade & current account deficit
Crude Prices
50
60
70
80
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Brent Crude (In USD/bbl)
66.6
53.8

Equity Valuations Update:
Indifferent towards
Largecap , Midcap & Smallcap
18

Narrow Rally for Nifty
19
Source: NSE; Returns Data is from Feb 16, 2017 to June 30 , 2019. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. The stocks/sectors mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential
Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in these stocks/sectors. The above data is for information purpose only which highlights that the broader market in the past has rallied due to handful of stocks.
Over the last 28 months, Nifty performance (3000 points
rally) was driven by a handful stocks
70
73
82
84
86
111
132
135
215
236
0 50 100 150 200 250
Britannia Industries
ICICI Bank
TCS
HDFC Bank
Kotak Mahindra Bank
Hindustan Unilever
Bajaj Finserve
Reliance Industries
Titan Company
Bajaj Finance
Nifty Gainers over last 28 Months (3000 points rally)
-17
-17
-20
-24
-27
-34
-35
-38
-62
-64
-70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0
IOCL
Hero Motocorp
Coal India
Eicher Motors
Indiabulls Hsg Finance
Vedanta
Zee Entertainment
Sun Pharma
Yes Bank
Tata Motors
Nifty Losers over last 28 months (3000 points rally)
Over the last 28 months, despite 3000 points rally in Nifty,
these constituents saw their market cap shrink
Current Equity Market Performance is driven by select few growth stocks making value as a theme attractive

Nifty 50 Valuations & Earnings Growth
20
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Mar-07
Dec-08
Sep-10
Jun-12
Mar-14
Dec-15
Sep-17
Jun-19
EPSGrowthYoY(%)
Nifty50PE
Valuations Vs. Earnings Growth
Nifty 50 PE EPS Growth YoY (%)
P/E: Price to Earnings. Source : Motilal Oswal, Data as of June 30, 2019
Post the rally in the large cap space, valuations are fully priced in and earnings
growth is yet to pick-up

Nifty Midcap Valuations
21
PBV – Price to Book Value. Source : Motilal Oswal, Data as of June 30, 2019
1.96
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Jun-05
Jun-06
Jun-07
Jun-08
Jun-09
Jun-10
Jun-11
Jun-12
Jun-13
Jun-14
Jun-15
Jun-16
Jun-17
Jun-18
Jun-19
NiftyMidcapP/BV
Nifty Midcap 100 Price to Book Value
Nifty Midcap PBV Long Term Average
Post the recent correction in the Mid & Smallcap space (refer subsequent slide), we
recommend Mid and Smallcap allocation in a staggered manner.

Market Cap Analysis
22
Share in the Overall Market Cap (%)
Index 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Mar-19 Jun-19
Top-100 79 79 75 74 71 79 77 78 79 78 81 75 74 72 65 70 73 73
101-250 9 11 12 12 13 11 12 13 13 14 13 14 15 15 16 16 16 16
Above
250
12 11 13 14 16 10 11 9 8 8 6 10 11 14 18 14 12.1 11.7
Top 100 indicates top 100 companies by market capitalization,101-250 indicates next 150 companies by market cap and above 250 indicates 251st onwards by marketcap.
Source : Kotak Research , Data as of June 30, 2019

Valuations –
Divergence between Growth and Value Stocks
23
Source: Morgan Stanley; Data as of June 30, 2019
Value and special
situation themes
expected to play out
due to significant
disconnect between
price and value in
many „Growth‟ and
„Value‟ stocks
31.5
21.7
10
15
20
25
30
35
Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Sep-17
Dec-17
Mar-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19
P/E ratio of MSCI India growth and MSCI India value
indices, 2010-19 (%)
MSCI Growth Index MSCI Value Index

Key Budget Announcements
25
FPI – Foreign Portfolio Investors, FDI – Foreign Direct Investment, KYC – Know your Customer, NBFC – Non-Banking Financial Companies, RBI – Reserve Bank of India. Source: Budget Document

Analysis
26
Increase in surcharge on 2 Individual income tax
categories – Surcharge on Taxable income between INR
2-5 cr increased by 3% and INR 5 cr & above by 7%. Now
the highest tax rate in India is 42%*
Government guarantee for the purchase of high-rated
pooled assets of up to INR 1trn indicates that the
Government seeks to address the NBFC concerns
Relaxation of FDI restrictions on certain sectors, easier KYC
norms for FPIs & external borrowing is a positive for foreign
flows
The proposal to increase public shareholding coupled with Government
willing to go below 51% for select CPSEs could lead to an increase in
India‟s weightage in global indices
Government focus on fiscal discipline and low inflation indicates the
probability of further rate cuts. This measure is expected to revive
growth.
Focus on Long Term Growth
More incremental equity on offer
Investor Confidence
NBFC relief
Rich to get more taxed
FPI – Foreign Portfolio Investors, FDI – Foreign Direct Investment, NBFC – Non-Banking Financial Companies, CPSE - Central Public Sector Enterprises, MSCI - Morgan Stanley Capital International, KYC – Know Your
Customer.*Consult your tax advisor for more details on taxation and applicable tax

Impact on Sectors
27
Increase in minimum public shareholding
and a proposal to levy 20% tax on share
buybacks may have a negative impact on
cash rich IT Sector
IT
A Rs. 700 Bn recapitalization budget for
PSU banks and increase in free float due
to proposed rise in public shareholding
could be positive for PSU Banks
PSU Banks
No initiatives on boosting
consumption. Hence less focus
Consumption
Credit Guarantee for high rated NBFCs and
change in Housing Finance Companies regulator
to RBI shows a greater focus on the sector
NBFCs
For high end housing, higher income taxes for
individuals earning Rs. 20 Mn. Is expected to
have a negative impact
Housing

Case for Long Term Investing &
Managing Volatility
28
Staggered investments over long term in the form of SIP in
Equity Schemes may help in wealth creation
Short term volatility to prevail given the current economic
scenario. Asset Allocation Schemes to benefit from
volatility recommended
Implementation of reforms measures and the subsequent
results to take ~3-5 years. A minimum investment horizon
of 3-5 years is recommended
Reforms Continuity & Initiatives to ensure long term
growth story remains intact
Reforms
Implementation
Asset Allocation
SIP for Wealth Creation

Outlook – Asset Allocation, Value &
Special Situations Theme
29
Volatility may
prevail due to
global and
domestic factors
Equity accumulation, in
mid/small/multicaps,
should be in a staggered
manner via SIP/STP
Neutral stance on
equities as valuations
look completely priced
in. However the outlook
has improved.
Recommend lump
sum investment in
Asset Allocation
Schemes to benefit
out of volatility
Value and special
situation themes
expected to play
out during 2019

Schemes to manage Volatility:
Our Asset Allocation Bouquet
30
These schemes aim to benefit from volatility and manage equity exposure based on valuations
ICICI Prudential
Regular Savings Fund*
Conservative
Hybrid Fund
Equity
Savings
Fund
Dynamic Asset
Allocation or
Balanced
Advantage
Fund
Multi
Asset
Allocation
Aggressive
Hybrid
ICICI Prudential
Equity Savings Fund
ICICI Prudential Balanced
Advantage Fund
ICICI Prudential
Multi-Asset Fund
ICICI Prudential
Equity & Debt Fund
Net Equity–
10-25%
Net Equity–
15-50%
Net equity –
30-80%
Net Equity –
10-80%
Net Equity–
65-80%
ICICI Prudential
Asset Allocator Fund*^
Net Equity Level*:
0-100%
Fund of
Funds
Debt Taxation Debt TaxationEquity Taxation
The asset allocation and investment strategy will be as per the Scheme Information Document, *This scheme will attract debt taxation. ^Investors may please note that they will be bearing the
recurring expenses of this Scheme in addition to the expenses of the underlying Schemes in which this Scheme makes investment.

ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund*
31
Source: BSE India & MFIE, Data as of June 30 2019. The in-house valuation model starts from March 2010onwards. ICICI Prudential BAF stands for ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund.
* An open ended dynamic asset allocation fund. The investment strategy will be as per Scheme Information Document
18,620
29,183
23002
35,965
39,395
Net Equity
77.4
Net Equity
34.3
Net Equity
77.7
Net Equity
31.7
45.9
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Mar'10
Apr'13
May'16
Jun'19
ICICIPrudentialBalancedAdvantageFund
NetEquityExposure(%)
SensexLevels
S&P BSE Sensex Levels vis-a-vis ICICI Prudential BAF Net Equity Exposure (%)
Sensex Level Net Equity Exposure %

ICICI Prudential Asset Allocator Fund#
*On change in allocation by the scheme. For more details on tax please consult with your tax advisor. The asset allocation and investment strategy will be as per Scheme Information Document. ) Investors may note that they will
be bearing the recurring expenses of this scheme in addition to the expenses of the underlying Schemes in which the scheme makes investment.
(# An open ended fund of funds scheme investing in equity oriented schemes, debt oriented schemes and gold ETFs/ schemes
To hedge against inflation or in adverse market situations, the Scheme may invest up to 50% in gold mutual fund schemes. Note: Subscriptions under the dividend plan of the scheme have been discontinued w.e.f. March 06, 2019
32
“Allocate between equity and debt at right time without tax impact*”
ICICI Prudential Asset Allocator Fund is an open ended Fund of Funds which has a flexibility to invest across
equity and debt schemes#
Investment Universe:
•Up to 100% in equity mutual fund schemes managed by ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund or any other Mutual
Fund(s)
•Up to 100% in debt mutual fund schemes managed by ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund or any other Mutual
Fund(s)
Allocation between asset classes
•The Scheme will be actively managed by experienced Fund Managers.
•The Scheme allocates between equity and debt mutual fund schemes based on in-house valuation model.

Schemes to benefit from Value & Special
Situations Theme
33
Fund of
Funds
*An open ended equity scheme following special situations theme. ^An open ended equity scheme following a value investment strategy. The investment strategy of the schemes will be as per the Scheme
Information Document
01
02
Value Fund with Equity Levels –
65 - 100%
ICICI Prudential Value Discovery Fund^
Special Situations Fund with Equity & Equity related
instruments of special situations theme of around
80 - 100%.
ICICI Prudential India Opportunities Fund*
These schemes aim to create wealth over long term by investing in opportunities at
reasonable valuations

ICICI Prudential India Opportunities Fund
34
The investment strategy will be as per Scheme Information Document
(1) Special Situation due to temporary Crisis in
a. Company b. Sectors c. Economy
(2) Government
Action/Regulatory Changes
(3) Global Events/Uncertainties
Situations that can be turned into opportunities

Schemes to benefit from growth story
35
These schemes aim to benefit from the long term growth story
* An open ended equity scheme predominantly investing in small cap stocks. ^ An open ended equity scheme predominantly investing in mid cap stocks. # An open ended equity scheme investing across
large cap, mid cap, small cap stocks. The investment strategy of the schemes will be as per the Scheme Information Document
GROWTH
ICICI Prudential
Midcap Fund^
A Midcap fund with
equity levels: 65-100%
ICICI Prudential
Multicap Fund#
A Multicap fund with
ICICI Prudential
Smallcap Fund*
A Smallcap fund with

ICICI Prudential Smallcap Fund
36The investment strategy of the scheme will be as per the Scheme Information Document
Robust Investment
Process
Portfolio Construction
and Investment Strategy
Large & Midcap Exposure:
Generally, 10 – 30% for
tactical allocation &
liquidity purpose
Strong Research and
Screening Process
No. of Stocks: 40 – 65
Smallcap Exposure:
Generally, 70 – 90% of portfolio
Young and agile
(AUM as on June 30,
2019 is Rs. 368.62 Crs)

ICICI Prudential Midcap Fund –
Investment Universe
37The investment strategy of the scheme will be as per the Scheme Information Document
Compounders with
Stable Growth
Long Term Wealth Creators
with Stable Growth
Consumption ideas, Brands
& High moat businesses
Structural
Growth
Long Term Wealth creators
Beneficiaries of Structural
changes in economy
Cyclical
Growth
Tactical Compounders
Beneficiary of Economic
Cycles

ICICI Prudential Multicap Fund
38
The investment strategy of the scheme will be as per the Scheme Information Document
Flexibility to invest
across market
capitalization
Well diversified
across various
sectors and stocks
Mix of Value and
Growth Strategy
Top down and
bottom up
approach
Less sector skewness &
Midcap/Smallcap allocation
based directionally as per our
In-House Market Cap Model

Our SIP Recommendations
39
ICICI Prudential
Value Discovery
Fund
(An open ended equity
scheme following a
value investment
strategy)
ICICI Prudential
Large & Midcap
Fund
scheme investing in both
largecap and midcap
stocks)
ICICI Prudential
Smallcap Fund
scheme predominantly
investing in smallcap
stocks)
ICICI
Prudential
Midcap Fund
scheme predominantly
investing in mid cap
stocks)
ICICI Prudential
US Bluechip Equity
Fund
scheme investing
predominantly in
securities of large cap
companies listed in
the United States of
America.)

Equity Valuation Index
40
Equity valuations show that
the market valuations are in
the zone where investors are
recommended to invest in
Asset Allocation / Balanced
Advantage Funds & Credit
Risk/Medium Duration Funds
Equity Valuation index is calculated by assigning equal weights to Price-to-Earnings (PE), Price-to-Book (PB), G-Sec*PE and Market Cap to GDP ratio. G-Sec – Government Securities. GDP – Gross Domestic Product; Asset Allocation – Schemes that
invest both in equity and fixed income
115.35
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
Jun-06
Jun-07
Jun-08
Jun-09
Jun-10
Jun-11
Jun-12
Jun-13
Jun-14
Jun-15
Jun-16
Jun-17
Jun-18
Jun-19
Invest in Equities
Aggressively invest in Equities
Neutral
Incremental Money to Debt
Book Partial Profits

OUR FIXED INCOME OUTLOOK:
PLAY ON LIQUIDITY & CARRY
41

Macro Economic Situation – Broad Parameters
42
Source: CRISIL Research; FY refers to fiscal year ends Apr - Mar; *Inflation (CPI) is for the month of May-19, Currency, Crude Oil prices as on 05 July 2019 , Forex Reserves as on April-2019, US 10Yr G-sec(%)
as on 04 July 2019; CAD is Q3FY19 print; FD Estimates from Budget Documents for FY20; GDP is for Q4FY19.
Fiscal Year Ends FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 Latest*
Inflation (CPI%) 10.2 9.5 5.9 4.9 3.8 3.6 3.4 3
Current Account (% GDP) -4.8 -1.7 -1.3 -1.1 -0.6 -1.9 -2.4 -2.5
Fiscal Deficit (% GDP) 4.9 4.5 4.1 3.9 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4
Crude Oil (USD/barrel) 109 107 53 39 60 57.8 64.5 64.23
GDP Growth (%) 5.6 6.6 7.2 7.9 7.9 7.3 6.8 5.8
Forex Reserves (USD bn) 292 304 342 356 370 424 413 419
Currency (USD/INR) 54.3 59.9 62.5 66.3 64.9 64.5 69.9 68.40
US 10YR G-sec Yields (%) 1.85 2.72 1.92 1.77 2.39 2.78 2.41 2.03

Current Fixed Income Market Scenario
43
 RBI has delivered 75 bps rate cut in CY’19
 Despite the rate cuts, the corporate bond rates & spreads continue to remain high
 Rate Transmission channel are broken due to credit concern, NBFC slowdown and
crowding-out effect.
 Banks Marginal Cost of Lending Rates (MCLR) continue to remain elevated, which has
further hampered the rate transmission process
 High small savings rate has been a deterrent for banks to reduce deposit rate even with
75 bps rate cuts.

5.5
5.6
5.7
5.8
5.9
6.0
6.1
6.2
6.3
6.4
6.5
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Repo Rate (%)
RBI has cut rates by 75 bps in CY‟19
44
RBI has cut Repo rates and SLR (Statutory Liquidity Ratio) rates by 75 bps in CY 19.
However, the transmission continues to remain challenging
Source : RBI, Data as on 30-June-2019;

Transmission channels are broken –
Corporate bond spread
45
Corporate Bond spreads remain elevated due to crowding out effect and due to credit concerns. This
has resulted into limited transmission of rates
Source : CRISIL Research, Data as on 02-Jul-2019
7.83
8.42
5.75
5
6
7
8
9
10
Jun-14
Dec-14
Jun-15
Dec-15
Jun-16
Dec-16
Jun-17
Dec-17
Jun-18
Dec-18
Jun-19
AAA - 3 Year AA - 3 Year Repo Rate

What lies ahead?
46
 Currency in circulation(CIC) before the festival season is expected to remain low
 Govt. surplus is expected to remain low post the increase in non-discretionary spending
which is positive for system liquidity
 Additionally, RBI is expected to pass on dividend income to the GOI, which will add to
core liquidity surplus
 Finally, RBI has been maintaining accommodative stance for liquidity and has proactively
used various liquidity easing tools. We expect the stance to continue
 Core liquidity may further increase depending on Reserves committee recommendations
and implementation

Play on Liquidity –
System Liquidity likely to turn positive
47Source : RBI, Data as on June 8, 2019
Liquidity
Conditions have
moved into the
surplus mode and
we believe system
liquidity will
continue to
improve
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Sep-17
Dec-17
Mar-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19
Daily Interbank Liquidity (in US$, Bn)

Currency in Circulation (CIC )Trend Seasonal Trend
48
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Currency in Circulation MoM% 5Y Avg
Currency in circulation dips in
sequential terms between Jun-Sept Seasonally, the
May-September
period is when the
CIC reduces due to
lower demand, this
is positive for the
liquidity.
Source : RBI, Data year on year for the last 5 Year average

RBI Dividend to Government
49
Source: RBI, Budget, Morgan Stanley Research *Includes Interim dividend of INR100bn in F2018. ** Includes interim dividend of INR 280bn in F2019. Note the years are as per GoI's fiscal year
accounting (Apr-Mar)
RBI usually
transfers the
surplus dividend to
the government in
August. This will
further boost the
system liquidity
54.5
71.4
65.3
39.5
73.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
F2015 F2016 F2017 F2018* F2019**
Surplus Transferable to the Government of India (INR '000cr)

Going Forward - RBI Expected to Ease Liquidity
50
RBI Tools
OMO
Purchases
Cash Reserve
Ratio
Foreign
Exchange
SWAP
Accommodative
Stance
Dividend &
Reserve

Segment of yield curve, which stands to benefit
51
 As repo rate moves down from here, the yield curve tends to steepen
making the short end of the yield curve attractive
 The corporate bond is at elevated levels and we expect compression of
corporate bond spreads over repo to happen
 Liquidity conditions improving is positive more for the short end space as
compared to the longer end space.

5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
1 Year 3 Year 5 Year 10 Year
AAA AA Gsec Repo
Spread compression in Corporate Bonds
52
Corporate Bond
spread over Repo
rate are at an
elevated levels.
Going forward, we
expect spread
compression in
corporate bond
space.
S
P
R
E
A
D
Source: CRISIL Research; Data as of July 05, 2019

5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14-6,00,000
-5,00,000
-4,00,000
-3,00,000
-2,00,000
-1,00,000
-
1,00,000
2,00,000
3,00,000
4,00,000
Liquidity (In Crs.) 1 Year AAA Yield (%) 10 Year AAA Yield (%)
Improvement in Liquidity Conditions & Short End Space
53
Surplus Zone
Deficit Zone
Liquidity
conditions is
expected to
improve as
discussed in the
previous slides.
This shift is
positive for the
short term rates
Source : RBI, Data as on 24-May-2019
2009 Phase 2017 Phase

High Quality Portfolio
Data as of June 30, 2019; Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. *AAA, G-Sec and Cash
54
Scheme Name
Yield to Maturity
(YTM)
Modified
Duration (Yrs.)
Exposure to
AAA*
securities
ICICI Prudential Money Market Fund 7.12% 0.40 100.0%
ICICI Prudential Savings Fund 7.92% 0.74 85.2%
ICICI Prudential Short Term Fund 8.31% 1.89 82.4%
ICICI Prudential Corporate Bond Fund 8.07% 1.58 100.0%
ICICI Prudential Banking & PSU Debt Fund 7.93% 2.29 82.9%

Play on Carry –
Strong case for investment in Credit Risk Funds
55
Valuations are attractive
Industry Flows are slowing
down
Sentiments are Negative

ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund –
Spread Over Repo (Since Inception)
56
Average Spread :
2.9
Data as on 30-June-2019, YTM values taken since scheme inception. Past Performance may or may not be sustained in future.
Current Spread :
4.91
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Dec-10
Apr-11
Aug-11
Nov-11
Mar-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Feb-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Aug-14
Nov-14
Mar-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Feb-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Jan-17
Apr-17
Aug-17
Dec-17
Mar-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Feb-19
Jun-19

ICICI Prudential Medium Term Bond Fund–
Spread Over Repo (Last 10 Year Trend)
57
Average : 2.13
Data as on 30-June-2019, YTM values taken for the last 10 years. Past Performance may or may not be sustained in future.
Current Spread :
4.36
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Jun-09
Oct-09
Feb-10
Jun-10
Oct-10
Feb-11
Jun-11
Oct-11
Feb-12
Jun-12
Oct-12
Feb-13
Jun-13
Oct-13
Feb-14
Jun-14
Oct-14
Feb-15
Jun-15
Oct-15
Feb-16
Jun-16
Oct-16
Feb-17
Jun-17
Oct-17
Feb-18
Jun-18
Oct-18
Feb-19
Jun-19

Invest when Flows are Muted
58
Source: MFIE. The funds considered are only Credit Risk Funds as per SEBI classification. Data as of May 31, 2019
90,924
76,195
65,000
70,000
75,000
80,000
85,000
90,000
95,000 Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Credit Risk Funds Category AUM (In Crs) - Industry Level

Why ICICI Prudential Accrual Funds
59
Investment
Philosophy
Strong Credit
Selection
Process
Robust
Investment
Process
Better Risk
Adjusted
Returns

Investment Philosophy
60
01
02
03
Safety
Liquidity
Returns
The investment team
seeks to achieve Safety,
Liquidity and Returns
(SLR) in order of priority
for managing variety of
our fixed income
schemes.

Robust Investment Process
61
Involves assessment of :
• Past track record of the
company
• Cash flows
• Asset Quality
• Assessment of Management
risk & Business risk
• Credit Ratings by external
credit rating agencies
• Based on investment
mandate of the scheme
• Yield and interest rate risk
management based on
interest rate view and
technical factors
• Liquidity risk management
to avoid asset-liability
mismatch
• Regular review of macro-
economic variables, liquidity
and credit risk
• Regular monitoring of
financial and business
profile of issuers
• Regular meetings with
company managements
• Performance and portfolio
analysis
CREDIT RESEARCH PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION PORTFOLIO MONITORING

Strong Credit Selection Process
62
CREDIT
SELECTION
Independent
evaluation by Risk
Team
Target list filters
• Independent research team
• Self-origination model
• External credit rating
Decision making is
not concentrated to
one person
Focus not just on
credit and liquidity
risk but also on
diversification

Outlook – Play on Liquidity & Carry
63
We continue to remain sanguine towards the short end
of the yield curve and on spread assets
We may tactically alter duration based on the spread
opportunity available in different market segment
We believe the next rate cut would be data-dependent
Accrual schemes have moved into „buy‟ territory with
attractive valuations, reduced flows, and negative
sentiments (NBFC liquidity crunch).
Risk-reward benefit has turned favourable; good time to
earn carry with high credit spreads available in the
corporate bond space
NBFC – Non-Banking Financial Companies

Debt Valuation Index
Debt Valuation Index considers WPI, CPI, Sensex YOY returns, Gold YOY returns and Real estate YOY returns over G-Sec yield, Current Account Balance and Crude Oil Movement for calculation. WPI – Wholesale Price Index;
CPI – Consumer Price Index. None of the aforesaid recommendations are based on any assumptions. These are purely for reference and the investors are requested to consult their financial advisors before investing.
• We recommend investors to
invest in Low Duration
schemes or accrual schemes
such as ICICI Prudential
Credit Risk Fund.
• For those investors who aim
to benefit from volatility we
recommend investment in
ICICI Prudential All Seasons
Bond Fund.
64
Ultra Low Duration
High Duration
2.502.42
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Sep-17
Dec-17
Mar-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19
Ultra Low Duration
Low Duration
Moderate Duration
High Duration
Aggressively in High Duration

Fixed Income Recommendations
65
ICICI Prudential Floating Interest Fund
Cash Management Solution
(aims to benefit from better risk adjusted returns)
ICICI Prudential Ultra Short Term Fund
ICICI Prudential Medium Term Bond Fund
Accrual Schemes
(aims to benefit from capturing yields at elevated levels)
ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund
ICICI Prudential All Seasons Bond Fund
Dynamic Duration Schemes
( aims to benefit from volatility by actively managing duration)
ICICI Prudential Short Term Fund
Low/Short Duration Schemes
(aims to benefit from mitigating interest rate volatility)

Our Equity Schemes
Scheme Name Type of Scheme
ICICI Prudential Bluechip Fund An open ended equity scheme predominantly investing in large cap stocks
ICICI Prudential Large & Mid Cap Fund An open ended equity scheme investing in both large cap and mid cap stocks.
ICICI Prudential Midcap Fund An open ended equity scheme predominantly investing in mid cap stocks.
ICICI Prudential Smallcap Fund An open ended equity scheme predominantly investing in small cap stocks.
ICICI Prudential Value Discovery Fund An open ended equity scheme following a value investment strategy.
ICICI Prudential Multicap Fund
An open ended equity scheme investing across large cap, mid cap, small cap
stocks.
ICICI Prudential India Opportunities Fund An Open Ended Equity Scheme following Special Situation theme
ICICI Prudential US Bluechip Equity Fund
An open ended equity scheme investing predominantly in securities of large cap
companies listed in the United States of America.
66

Our Hybrid Schemes / Fund of Funds Scheme
ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund An open ended dynamic asset allocation fund
ICICI Prudential Regular Savings Fund An open ended hybrid scheme investing predominantly in debt instruments
ICICI Prudential Equity Savings Fund
An open ended scheme investing in equity, arbitrage and
debt.
ICICI Prudential Equity & Debt Fund
An open ended hybrid scheme investing predominantly in equity and equity
related instruments
ICICI Prudential Multi-Asset Fund
An open ended scheme investing in Equity, Debt, Gold/Gold ETF/units of REITs &
InvITs and other asset classes as may be permitted from time to time.
67
ICICI Prudential Asset Allocator Fund
An open ended fund of funds scheme investing in equity oriented schemes, debt
oriented schemes and gold ETFs/schemes.

Our Debt Schemes
ICICI Prudential Ultra Short Term Fund
An open ended ultra-short term debt scheme investing in instruments such that the Macaulay
duration of the portfolio is between 3 months and 6 months.
ICICI Prudential Short Term Fund
An open ended short term debt scheme investing in instruments such that the Macaulay
duration of the portfolio is between 1 Year and 3 Years.
ICICI Prudential Medium Term Bond Fund
An open ended medium term debt scheme investing in instruments such that the Macaulay
duration of the portfolio is between 3 Years and 4 Years. The Macaulay duration of the portfolio
is 1 Year to 4 years under anticipated adverse situation.
ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in AA and below rated corporate bonds.
ICICI Prudential Floating Interest Fund
An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in floating rate instruments (including
fixed rate instruments converted to floating rate exposures using swaps/derivatives).
ICICI Prudential All Seasons Bond Fund An open ended dynamic debt scheme investing across duration.
ICICI Prudential Savings Fund
An open ended low duration debt scheme investing in instruments such that the Macaulay
duration of the portfolio is between 6 months and 12 months
ICICI Prudential Banking & PSU Debt Fund
An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in Debt instruments of banks, Public
Sector Undertakings, Public Financial Institutions
ICICI Prudential Corporate Bond Fund An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in AA+ and above rated corporate bonds.
ICICI Prudential Money Market Fund An open ended debt scheme investing in money market instruments
68
Macaulay Duration - The Macaulay duration is the weighted average term to maturity of the cash flows from a bond. The weight of each cash flow is determined by dividing the present value of the cash flow by the price.

Riskometers
ICICI Prudential Multi-Asset Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 Long term wealth creation
 An open ended scheme investing across asset classes.
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
ICICI Prudential Equity & Debt Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 Long term wealth creation solution
 A balanced fund aiming for long term capital appreciation and current income by investing in equity as well as fixed income securities.
ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 Long term wealth creation solution
 An equity fund that aims for growth by investing in equity and derivatives.
69

Riskometers
ICICI Prudential Bluechip Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 An open ended equity scheme predominantly investing in large cap stocks.
ICICI Prudential Value Discovery Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 An open ended equity scheme following a value investment strategy
ICICI Prudential Large & Mid Cap Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 An open ended equity scheme investing in both largecap and mid cap stocks
70

Riskometers
ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 Medium term savings
 A debt scheme that aims to generate income through investing predominantly in AA and below rated corporate bonds while
maintaining the optimum balance of yield, safety and liquidity
ICICI Prudential Medium Term Bond Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 Medium term savings
 A debt scheme that invests in debt and money market instruments with a view to maximize income while maintaining optimum balance
of yield, safety and liquidity
ICICI Prudential Regular Savings Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 Medium to long term regular income solution
 A hybrid fund that aims to generate regular income through investments primarily in debt and money market instruments and long term
capital appreciation by investing a portion in equity.
71

Riskometers
ICICI Prudential Short Term Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 Short term income generation and capital appreciation solution
 A debt fund that aims to generate income by investing in a range of debt and money market instruments of various maturities.
ICICI Prudential All Seasons Bond Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 All duration savings
 A debt scheme that invests in debt and money market instruments with a view to maximize income while maintaining optimum balance
of yield, safety and liquidity
ICICI Prudential Smallcap Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 Long Term wealth creation
 An open ended equity scheme that seeks to generate capital appreciation by predominantly investing in equity and equity related
securities of small cap companies.
72

Riskometers
ICICI Prudential Floating Interest Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 Short term savings
 An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in floating rate instruments
ICICI Prudential Ultra Short Term Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 Short term regular income
 An open ended ultra-short term debt scheme investing in a range of debt and money market instruments
ICICI Prudential Midcap Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 Long Term wealth creation
 An open-ended equity scheme that aims for capital appreciation by investing in diversified mid cap companies.
73

Riskometers
ICICI Prudential India Opportunities Fund (The scheme is suitable for investors who are seeking*)
 An equity scheme that invests in stocks based on special situations theme.
*Investors should consult their financial advisors if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.
74
ICICI Prudential Equity Savings Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 An open ended scheme that seeks to generate regular income through investments in fixed income securities, arbitrage and other
derivative strategies and aim for long term capital appreciation by investing in equity and equity related instruments.
ICICI Prudential Multicap Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 An open ended equity scheme investing across largecap, mid cap and small cap stocks.

Riskometers
ICICI Prudential US Bluechip Equity Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 An open ended equity scheme primarily investing in equity and equity related securities of companies listed on recognized stock
exchanges in the United States of America
75
ICICI Prudential Savings Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 An open ended low duration debt scheme that aims to maximize income by investing in debt and money market instruments while
maintaining optimum balance of yield, safety and liquidity
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.
ICICI Prudential Banking & PSU Debt Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in Debt instruments of banks, Public Sector Undertakings, Public Financial Institutions
and Municipal Bonds

Riskometers
76
ICICI Prudential Corporate Bond Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in highest rated corporate bonds
ICICI Prudential Money Market Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 A money market scheme that seeks to provide reasonable returns, commensurate with low risk while providing a high level of liquidity
•Long Term wealth creation
•An open ended fund of funds scheme investing in equity oriented schemes, debt oriented schemes and gold ETF/schemes.
*Investorsshould consulttheir financial advisorsif in doubt about whethertheproductis suitablefor them.
ICICI Prudential Asset Allocator Fund (An open ended fund of funds scheme investing in equity oriented schemes, debt
oriented schemes and gold ETFs/ schemes) is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
Investors may please note that they will be bearing the recurring expenses of this Scheme in addition to the expenses of the underlying Schemes in which this Scheme makes investment.

Disclaimer For Mutual Funds
Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
All figures and other data given in this document are dated. The same may or may not be relevant at a future date. The AMC takes no responsibility of updating any data/information in this material
from time to time. The information shall not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without
prior written consent of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited. Prospective investors are advised to consult their own legal, tax and financial advisors to determine possible tax,
legal and other financial implication or consequence of subscribing to the units of ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund. Past Performance may or may not be sustained in future.
Disclaimer: In the preparation of the material contained in this document, ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Ltd. (the AMC) has used information that is publicly available, including
Budget speech and information developed in-house. The stock(s)/sector(s) mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have
any future position in this stock(s). Some of the material used in the document may have been obtained from members/persons other than the AMC and/or its affiliates and which may have
been made available to the AMC and/or to its affiliates. Information gathered and material used in this document is believed to be from reliable sources. The AMC however does not warrant the
accuracy, reasonableness and / or completeness of any information. We have included statements / opinions / recommendations in this document, which contain words, or phrases such as
“will”, “expect”, “should”, “believe” and similar expressions or variations of such expressions, that are “forward looking statements”. Actual results may differ materially from those suggested by
the forward looking statements due to risk or uncertainties associated with our expectations with respect to, but not limited to, exposure to market risks, general economic and political conditions
in India and other countries globally, which have an impact on our services and / or investments, the monetary and interest policies of India, inflation, deflation, unanticipated turbulence in
interest rates, foreign exchange rates, equity prices or other rates or prices etc. ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited (including its affiliates), the Mutual Fund, The Trust and any
of its officers, directors, personnel and employees, shall not liable for any loss, damage of any nature, including but not limited to direct, indirect, punitive, special, exemplary, consequential, as
also any loss of profit in any way arising from the use of this material in any manner. Further, the information contained herein should not be construed as forecast or promise or investment
advice. The recipient alone shall be fully responsible/are liable for any decision taken on this material.
77

Monthly Market Outlook - July 2019

Recommended

Recommended

More Related Content

What's hot

What's hot (19)

Similar to Monthly Market Outlook - July 2019

Similar to Monthly Market Outlook - July 2019 (20)

More from iciciprumf

More from iciciprumf (20)

Recently uploaded

Recently uploaded (20)

Monthly Market Outlook - July 2019