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1
Recap of Outlook 2021 – Turning Points ahead
2
Normalization of
Stimulus Measures
Central Banks pausedfurther rate cuts
& speeding up taperingprogram
Concentrated to Broad
Based Rally
During CY2021,market rally was broadbased
unlike 2020
Less returns potential
in Duration
RBI has paused further rate cuts &
is likely tohike rates
Deflation to Reflation
Emerging & Developed Countries are
witnessinghighinflation
Changein Market Cycle
2021 witnessedextreme market
movements due to changing macros
WHAT WE SAID LAST YEAR?
Source – www.CNBC.com,EdelweissResearch,RBI,JMFinancial,Morgan Stanley.Dataas ofDec 31,2021. RBI – ReserveBank of India.*Pleaseclick onfollowinglinkfor detailedoutlook 2021document – AnnualOutlook 2021
3
What caught our eye in 2021?
Obsessive Cryptocurrency Drive & Real-ity check!
Source:Canara Robeco,BOFA Research.WWII – WorldWar2,GATT – General Agreementon Tariffs & Trade,NAFTA– NorthAmerican FreeTrade Agreement,WTO– WorldTrade Organization,GDC – Global FinancialCrisis,COVID –
CoronavirusDisease.Past performancemay or maynot sustain in future
4
The number of Non-FungibleToken (NFT) sales has
shot up significantly from ~1,50,000 to 1.2 Mn per
month in recent months
Real Assets are at all time lows relative to Financial
Assets since 1925
Fabulous ‘Five’!
Source:BOFA Global research,MSCI.Data as ofNov 30,2021.FAAMG– Facebook.Apple,Amazon,Microsoft,Google.The sectors)/stock(s)mentionedin this slide do not constitute any recommendation andICICI PrudentialMutualFund may
or may not have any future positionin this sector(s)/stock(s).Pastperformance may or may not sustain in future
5
“FAAMG” stocks form 5 of the top 10 largest companies in the world by marketcapitalization. Microsoftis the
only company featured in top 10 stocks throughout the 21st century. Tesla is the new entrant
31-Mar-00
Company
as a % of
marketcap
Microsoft 2.5
Cisco 2.4
GE 2.3
Intel 2.0
NTT Docomo 1.8
Vodafone 1.5
Exxon 1.2
Nippon Telegraph 1.1
Walmart 1.1
Nokia 1.1
11-Oct-02
Company
as a % of
marketcap
Microsoft 2.1
GE 1.9
Walmart 1.9
Exxon 1.9
Pfizer 1.5
J&J 1.4
AIG 1.2
Citigroup 1.2
BP 1.2
Coca Cola 1.0
02-Nov-07
Company
as a % of
marketcap
Exxon 2.2
Petrochina 1.6
Walmart 1.3
Chinamobile 1.1
Microsoft 1.0
AT&T 0.9
J&J 0.9
P&G 0.9
Ind & Comm
Bank ofChina
0.9
Chevron 0.8
13-Mar-09
Company
as a % of
marketcap
Exxon 1.5
GE 1.2
Chinamobile 1.2
Microsoft 1.1
Gazprom 0.9
Ind & Comm
Bank ofChina
0.9
China Petro &
ChemCorp
0.8
BP 0.8
AT&T 0.7
China Constr
Bank
0.7
30-Nov-21
Company
as a % of
marketcap
Apple 4.1
Microsoft 3.5
Amazon 2.4
Tesla 1.4
AlphabetA 1.3
AlphabetC 1.2
NVIDIA 1.2
Meta Platforms A 1.2
Taiwan
Semiconductor
0.8
JP Morgan Chase 0.7
6
Fixed Income Outlook
Shifting Sands –
A year of active management
Recap – Glancing through 2021 (Fixed Income)
Data as on Nov 30,2021.Source – RBI,www.federalreserve.gov,MOSPI.RBI – ReserveBankofIndia,CRR – Cash Reserve Ratio,OMO– Open Market Operations,GDP – Gross Domestic Product,G-SAP– G-Sec Acquisition Programme,VAT–
Value AddedTax,VRRR– Variable Rate ReverseRepo.Past performancemayor maynot sustain in future
7
5.80
5.90
6.00
6.10
6.20
6.30
6.40
Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21
RBI announces
reversal of CRR to 4%
from 3% in two
phases
Govt. announces record
borrowing plan for FY2022
Yields soften due to OMO
purchases by RBI
Rise in crude oil
prices affected
yields
Muted GDP growth
and OMO purchases
softened yields
RBI’s new G-SAP OMOs of Rs
1 lakh crore softened yields
Yields fall below 6% as
RBI announces higher G-
sec purchases
May inflation figure of
6.3% hurt bond prices
Bond yields surge
as crude climbs
higher
US Fed’s dovish statement
eased bond yields
Crude crosses $80/bbl,
RBI discontinues G-SAP
Govt. announces cut in
excise/VAT on fuel
RBI buys longer term
G-secs under G-SAP
RBI conducts 28-day
VRRR for first time
10 Yr-Gsec (%)
Yield Curve Movement
Data as on Dec 28,2021,CRISIL Research
8
Complete yield curve have moved higher and the short-ended of the yield curve has comparatively moved
faster comparatively resulting in some reduction in steepness. We believe this shift to continue with RBI
slowly withdrawing stimulus measures.
3
4
5
6
7
1M 3M 6M 1 Yr 2 Yrs 3 Yrs 5 Yrs 10 Yrs
Yield Curve – Gsec (%)
28-Dec-21 31-Dec-20
3
4
5
6
7
8
1M 3M 6M 1 Yr 2 Yrs 3 Yrs 5 Yrs 10 Yrs
Yield Curve – Corporate Bond (%)
28-Dec-21 31-Dec-20
Case for Active Management
Shifting
Sands
RBI Policy Measures
HighValuations on
shorter end
Macros at a Divergence
9
RBI Policy Measures and Debt Cycle
2017 2018 2020 2021
Inflation Band : +/- 4%
Interest rates
2019
2022E
Inflation Band : +/- 4%
Interest
rates
SHORTER DEBT CYCLE:
Mainly due to inflation targeting, which resulted in short-term
volatilitybut long stable cycle
LONGER DEBT CYCLE:
RBI giving precedence to growth at the cost of inflation,
may result in longer cycle with higher volatility at the turns
RBI – Reserve BankofIndia,E - estimated
10
POST 2013: DEBT CYCLE EXPECTED DEBT CYCLE
RBI Policy Measures – Growth & Inflation
Source:MOSPI.Data as ofNov 30,2021, CPI – Consumer PriceIndex.GDP – Gross DomesticProduct
11
RBI continues to give precedence to growth over inflation which is moving closer to its upper tolerance band
4.9
6.2
0
2
4
6
8
Mar-18
Jul-18
Nov-18
Mar-19
Jul-19
Nov-19
Mar-20
Jul-20
Nov-20
Mar-21
Jul-21
Nov-21
CPI inflation Core inflation (excl. food & oil)
India GDP Growth (%) India CPI Inflation (% YoY)
5.4 4.6 3.3 3.0
-24.4
-7.4
0.5 1.6
20.1
8.4
-27
-17
-7
3
13
23
Jun-19
Sep-19
Dec-19
Mar-20
Jun-20
Sep-20
Dec-20
Mar-21
Jun-21
Sep-21
RBI Policy Measures – Expected Roadmap
LAF – Liquidity AdjustmentFacility
CEASE INJECTING LIQUIDITY
RBI STATUS
INITIATED
INITIATED
PENDING
PENDING
PENDING
LIQUIDITY ABSORPOTION
NARROWINGLAF CORRIDOR
CHANGEIN STANCE
REPO RATE HIKE
01
02
03
04
05
12
We expect RBI to normalize stimulusmeasures& take below steps to strike a balance between Growth & Inflation
RBI Policy Measures – Cease Injecting Liquidity
Source:RBI, NirmalBang.Data as ofNov 30,2021, CRR – Cash ReserveRatio,OMO– Open Market Operation,GSAP– G-Sec Acquisition Programme
13
CRR was restored back to 4% in May 2021
to moderate banking liquidity
RBI started reducing quantum of OMOs and
discontinued GSAP to reduce injection of liquidity
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1QFY21
2QFY21 3QFY21 4QFY21 1QFY22 2QFY22
Liquidity Measures
OMO purchases GSAP Operation twist
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
Dec-17
Mar-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19
Sep-19
Dec-19
Mar-20
Jun-20
Sep-20
Dec-20
Mar-21
Jun-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Cash Reserve Ratio (%)
RBI Policy Measures – Liquidity Absorption
Source:RBI,Spark Research.Data as ofNov 30,2021,VRRR – Variable Rate Reverse Repo,FYTD – FinancialYear tillDate
14
4.2
-1.0
1.2
7.2
5.3
8.2
6.6
3.3
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Sep-16
Apr-17
Nov-17
Jun-18
Jan-19
Aug-19
Mar-20
Oct-20
May-21
Dec-21
Call
Money
Rate
(%)
Net
Liquidity
(Rs
Tn)
Liquidity in the System
Net liquidity (Rs tn) Call money rate (%) - RHS
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.9
4.0
4.1
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
1800000
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Avg
of
VRRR
Sum
of
Auction
Amt
(Cr)
VRRR Amount and Cut-off Rate in FYTD 22
Sum of Auction Aomunt (In Cr)
Average of Variable rate reverse repo (cut off rate)
RBI is expected to
narrow the LAF corridor
by establishingthe 25
bps gap which was
observed during pre-
pandemic phase
RBI Policy Measures – Narrowing LAF Corridor
Source:RBI.Data as ofNov 30, 2021, LAF – LiquidityAdjustment Facility,MSF – Marginal StandlngFacility,bps – basispoints
15
3
4
5
6
7
Dec-18
Feb-19
Apr-19
Jun-19
Aug-19
Oct-19
Dec-19
Feb-20
Apr-20
Jun-20
Aug-20
Oct-20
Dec-20
Feb-21
Apr-21
Jun-21
Aug-21
Oct-21
Dec-21
LAF Corridor
Reverse Repo Rate Repo Rate MSF Rate
65 bps
25 bps
Shifting Sands – Macros at a divergence
Source – JP Morgan Research.Data as ofNov 30,2021,US – UnitedStates,GDP – GrossDomestic Product
16
Global stimulus measures were unprecedented compared to domestic stimulus,
which resulted in global growth picking up faster compared to India
Global Stimulus vs Domestic Stimulus Global Growth vs Domestic Growth
-20
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
Mar-12
Dec-12
Sep-13
Jun-14
Mar-15
Dec-15
Sep-16
Jun-17
Mar-18
Dec-18
Sep-19
Jun-20
Mar-21
Dec-21
Fiscal Deficit as % of GDP
India US
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
YoY GDP Growth (%)
World US India
Source:JP Morgan Research.Data as ofNov 30,2021
17
Global business cycle especially US is in matured phase. India’s business cycle
still remains in nascent stage which is visible in the inflation rate
Shifting Sands – Macros at a divergence
Global Business Cycle vs Domestic Business Cycle Global Inflation vs Domestic Inflation
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan-16
Aug-16
Mar-17
Oct-17
May-18
Dec-18
Jul-19
Feb-20
Sep-20
Apr-21
Nov-21
Unemployment Rate (%)
India Unemployment rate US Unemployment rate
-1
1
3
5
7
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Feb-17
Aug-17
Feb-18
Sep-18
Mar-19
Sep-19
Apr-20
Oct-20
Apr-21
Nov-21
Inflation (%)
India World (Eco Wgt) US
High valuations at the
short-end of the yield curve,
which still trades below or
close to repo-rate. Belly of
the curve, offers low
risk-rewardbenefit.
Long-end term premium is
reasonable but need to be
managed actively based
on RBI measures
KEY TAKEAWAY:
Shifting Sands – Valuations
Data as on Dec 28,2021,CRISIL Research
3
4
5
6
7
1M 10 Yrs
3M 6M
Gsec Yield Curve (%)
1 Yr 2Yrs 3 Yrs 5 Yrs
Corporate Bond Yield Curve (%)
High term premium
but follow tactical
approach due to
rising interest-rate
cycle
Risk reward
benefit
moderate to
low
Low carry
18
To Sum Up – Shifting Sands in Fixed Income Space
19
SCENARIO IN LAST COUPLE OF YEARS
Easy Monetary Policy + Interest Rate Cuts
=
led to higher returns for Duration Funds
APPROACH
Long Duration Funds and Passive Long
Duration Funds
SCENARIO GOING FORWARD
Normalization of liquidity conditions + rate
hikes + change in policy stance
=
May result in volatility
APPROACH
• Be nimble, recommend active management
approach
• Invest in Spread Assets
• Instruments like FRB (Floating rate bonds)
which may benefit from rising interest rates
Summary – Fixed Income Outlook
20
• In the Fixed Income space, currently there are lot of dynamic elements at play
• Margin of safety remains low and hence risk-management should be given importance
• Post the pricing-in of rate hikes and liquidity normalization, yields may appear reasonable
• RBI is giving precedence to growth, which may lead to longer and volatile cycle
• We expect RBI to narrow LAF corridor as the next step of withdrawing stimulus
• We are in a interest-rate rise cycle and hence recommend exposure towards floating rate
instruments
• In the current phase, more nimble and active duration management approach is recommended
• We recommend investing in spread assets with an aim to benefit from higher carry
Triggers/Risk
21
Quick
Growth
rebound
US Fed Roadmap
for withdrawal of
stimulus
US Fed
10Y Rates
Global Bond
Indexinclusion
Impact & Severity of
new COVID variants
(currently OMICRON)
May result in faster
withdrawal of stimulus
Faster withdrawal –
negative for markets
Higher rates may result
in outflow
May help in absorption
of bond supply
May impact pace of
growth recovery
2022 – Avoid Investing Mistakes
22
Reacting to temporary under-
performance due to active management
Not following Asset Allocation
Not giving due respect to valuations
Investing based on past
returns
Investing in IPOs without
understanding the business
Not opting for debt as a capital
preservation tool
01
06 02
04
05 03
23
Investment Approach &
Scheme Recommendations for 2022
We are here
Accrual Strategy
Interest Rate Hike
Period:
Low duration funds
Interest Rate Pause
Period:
Active Duration
Management
Interest Rate Fall Period:
High Duration Fundsand
Passive Long Duration
Funds
Interest Rate Pause Period:
Active Duration Management
Time
Interest
Rate
Investment Approach For 2022
24
Current Interest rate-rise cycle & Product Strategy (Illustration)
47
Floating Rate
Instruments
Active
Management
Spread
Assets
Strategies to navigate Fixed Income Markets
25
Floating Rate Instruments
26
Prices of typical Fixed Coupon
rate bonds tend to go down
when interest rates rise and vice
versa
Floater Bonds provides a
cushion in rising interest rate
scenario and at the same
time deliver better returns
with attached Floater
Floating Rate Bonds (FRBs) are bonds that have a variable coupon, which can be
linked to reference rate like MIBOR or T-Bills plus a fixed spread.
Source:CRISIL Research,Data as on Dec 28,2021.Past performance mayor may not sustain in future
Active Duration Approach
Currently, the term
premium is at one of the
highest levels seen in the
last 10 years and active
duration may help in
capturing the same with
adequate risk management
27
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Dec-02
Dec-03
Dec-04
Dec-05
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
Dec-20
Dec-21
Term Premium (10 Yr Gsec - 1 Yr Tbill) % Long Term Average Premium %
Average – 86 bps
222 bps
Source:CRISIL Research,Data as on Nov 30,2021.Past performance may or may not sustain in future
Active Duration Management in ICICI Prudential’sFixed Income Schemes
28
Pre-pandemic
phase
COVID (Wave 1):
increased duration to
benefitfrom RBI
easing monetary
conditions
Economy Opening
Up:
lowered duration
COVID (Wave 2):
increased duration
as RBI expected to
give precedence to
growth
RBI normalizing
stimulus measures :
moderated duration
Feb-2020 Aug-2020 Feb-2021 July-2021 Nov-2021
ICICI Prudential All Seasons Bond Fund 4.61 5.72 2.44 4.12 3.19
ICICI Prudential Banking & PSU Debt Fund 2.43 3.37 1.79 3.86 3.74
ICICI Prudential Bond Fund 3.82 4.89 3.96 5.38 4.41
ICICI Prudential Corporate Bond Fund 1.84 2.88 1.76 2.31 2.84
ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund 1.76 2.24 1.38 1.92 1.78
ICICI Prudential Floating Interest Fund 0.96 1.37 0.54 0.99 1.53
ICICI Prudential Gilt Fund 6.95 8.05 5.53 5.91 7.33
ICICI Prudential Liquid Fund 0.09 0.11 0.10 0.09 0.06
ICICI Prudential Long Term Bond Fund 7.43 7.93 7.14 8.72 8.40
ICICI Prudential Medium Term Bond Fund 2.89 3.55 2.14 2.97 3.10
ICICI Prudential Money MarketFund 0.32 0.42 0.24 0.28 0.14
ICICI Prudential Savings Fund 0.80 0.92 0.55 0.82 0.87
ICICI Prudential Short Term Fund 2.31 2.85 1.61 2.40 2.01
ICICI Prudential Ultra Short Term Fund 0.42 0.30 0.38 0.33 0.23
Major Phases &
Duration
Movement
Source:CRISIL Research,Data as on Dec 28,2021,CD – CertificateofDeposit,bps – basispoints,Pastperformance may or may not sustain in future
Accrual Strategy
AAA(3Year)
Instrument
Type
A1+(6MnthCD)
RepoRate
Gsec(10Year)
AA(3Year)
A(3Year)
Yields (%)
31-Dec-19 28-Dec-21
6.80 5.60
5.56 4.15
5.15 4.00
6.51 6.48
7.85 7.92
9.47 9.72
29
120
141
115
3
-7
-25
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
AAA(3
Year)
A1+(6Mnth
CD)
Repo
Rate
Cut
Gsec(10
Year)
AA(3
Year)
A(3
Year)
Rate Transmission (bps) for from 31-Dec-2019
Value Zone
Expensive Zone
Scheme Recommendations
30
Approach Scheme Name Call to Action Rationale
Short Duration
ICICI Prudential Savings Fund
ICICI Prudential Ultra Short Term Fund
ICICI Prudential Floating Interest Fund
Invest for parking surplus
funds
Accrual + Moderate
Volatility
Accrual Schemes
ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund
ICICI Prudential Medium Term Bond Fund
Core Portfolio with >1 Yr
investment horizon
Better Accrual
Dynamic Duration ICICI Prudential All Seasons Bond Fund
Long Term Approach with
>3 Yrs investment horizon
Active Duration and
Better Accrual
Data as on Dec 31,2021. Debt Valuation Index considersWPI,CPI,Sensex returns,GoldreturnsandReal estate returns overG-Secyield,CurrentAccount Balance,Fiscal Balance,CreditGrowth andCrude Oil Movementfor calculation.
Our guiding light for Duration Risk Management
Our Debt Valuation
Index suggests
caution on high
duration as the
interest rates are
expected to
remain volatile
31
Very Cautious
Aggressive
Very Aggressive
Cautious
Very Cautious
Cautious
Aggressive
Very Aggressive
2.04
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19
Sep-19
Dec-19
Mar-20
Jun-20
Sep-20
Dec-20
Mar-21
Jun-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Very Cautious
Cautious
Moderate
Aggressive
Highly Aggressive
32
Riskometers & Disclaimers
Our Fixed Income Schemes
33
Macaulay duration is the weightedaverage termtomaturityofthe cash flows from a bond.The weight ofeach cash flowis determinedby dividingthe presentvalueofthe cash flowby the price
Scheme Name Typeof Scheme
ICICI PrudentialUltra Short Term Fund
An open ended ultra-short term debt schemeinvesting in instruments suchthat the Macaulay duration of the portfolio is between 3 months and 6 months.A
moderate interest rate risk and moderate credit risk.
ICICI PrudentialShort Term Fund
An open ended short term debt schemeinvesting in instruments suchthat theMacaulay duration of theportfolio is between 1 Year and 3 Years.A relatively
high interest rate risk and moderatecredit risk.
ICICI Prudential Medium Term Bond Fund An open ended medium term debt schemeinvestingin instruments suchthat the Macaulay duration of the portfolio is between 3 Years and 4 Years. TheMacaulay
duration of the portfolio is 1 Year to 4 years under anticipated adverse situation.A relatively high interest rate riskand moderatecredit risk.
ICICI PrudentialCredit Risk Fund An open ended debt schemepredominantly investingin AA and below rated corporate bonds. A relatively high interest rate risk and relatively high credit risk.
ICICI PrudentialFloating Interest Fund
An open ended debt schemepredominantly investingin floatingrate instruments (including fixedrate instruments converted tofloating rate exposures using
swaps/derivatives).A relatively highinterest rate risk and moderatecredit risk.
ICICI PrudentialAll Seasons Bond Fund An open ended dynamic debt schemeinvestingacross duration. A relatively high interest rate risk and moderate credit risk.
ICICI Prudential Savings Fund
An open ended low duration debt schemeinvesting in instruments suchthat theMacaulay duration of the portfolio is between 6 months and12 months.A
relatively high interest rate risk and moderate credit risk.
ICICI Prudential Banking & PSU Debt Fund
An open ended debt schemepredominantly investingin Debt instruments of banks, Public Sector Undertakings,Public Financial Institutions and Municipal
Bonds.A relatively high interest rate risk and moderatecredit risk.
ICICI PrudentialCorporate Bond Fund An open ended debt schemepredominantly investingin AA+ and above rated corporate bonds. A relatively high interest rate risk and moderate credit risk.
ICICI PrudentialMoney Market Fund An open ended debt schemeinvestingin money market instruments.A relatively low interest rate risk and moderate credit risk.
ICICI Prudential Liquid Fund An open ended liquid scheme.A relatively lowinterest rate risk and moderatecredit risk.
ICICI Prudential Bond Fund
An open ended medium tolong term debt schemeinvestingin instruments suchthat the Macaulay duration of the portfoliois between4 Years and 7 Years. TheMacaulay
duration of the portfoliois 1 Year to7 years under anticipated adversesituation. A relatively high interest rate risk and moderatecredit risk.
ICICI Prudential Gilt Fund An open ended debt schemeinvestingin government securities across maturity.A relatively high interest rate risk and relatively lowcredit risk.
ICICI Prudential Overnight Fund An open ended debt schemeinvestingin overnight securities.A relatively lowinterest rate riskand relatively low credit risk.
ICICI Prudential Long Term Bond Fund An open ended debt schemewithMacaulay duration greater than7 years. A relatively high interest rate riskand relatively lowcredit risk.
Riskometers
34
ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 Medium term savings
 A debt scheme that aims to generate income through investing predominantly in AA and below rated corporate bonds while
maintaining the optimum balance of yield, safety and liquidity
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
ICICI Prudential Medium TermBond Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 Medium term savings
 A debt scheme that invests in debt and money market instruments with a view to maximize income while maintaining optimum
balance of yield, safety and liquidity
*Investors shouldconsult theirfinancialadvisers ifin doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
ICICI Prudential Short Term Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 Short term income generation and capital appreciation solution
 A debt fund that aims to generate income by investing in a range of debt and money market instruments of various maturities.
*Investors shouldconsult their financialadvisersifin doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
ICICI Prudential All Seasons Bond Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 All duration savings
 A debt scheme that invests in debt and money market instruments with a view to maximize income while maintaining optimum balance
of yield, safety andliquidity
*Investors shouldconsult their financialadvisersifin doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
Macaulay duration is the weightedaverage termtomaturityofthe cash flows from a bond.The weight ofeach cash flowis determinedby dividingthe presentvalueofthe cash flowby the price
Riskometers
35
ICICI Prudential Floating Interest Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 Short term savings
 An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in floating rate instruments
*Investors shouldconsult theirfinancialadvisers ifin doubt about whetherthe product is suitable forthem
ICICI Prudential Ultra Short Term Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 Short term regular income
 An open ended ultra-short term debt scheme investing in a range of debt and money market instruments
*Investors shouldconsult theirfinancialadvisers ifin doubt about whetherthe product is suitable forthem
Macaulay duration is the weightedaverage termto maturityofthe cash flows from a bond.The weight ofeach cash flowis determinedby dividingthe presentvalueofthe cash flowby the price
ICICI Prudential Savings Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 Short term savings
 An open ended low duration debt scheme that aims to maximize income by investing in debt and money market instruments
while maintaining optimum balance of yield, safety andliquidity
*Investors shouldconsulttheir financial advisers ifin doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.
ICICI Prudential Banking & PSU Debt Fund issuitable for investors who are seeking*:
 Short term savings
 An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in Debt instruments of banks, Public Sector Undertakings, Public Financial
Institutions and Municipal Bonds
*Investors shouldconsulttheir financial advisers ifin doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.
Investors understandthat
their principal will be at
Low to Moderate Risk
Riskometers
36
ICICI Prudential Corporate Bond Fund is suitable for investors whoare seeking*:
 Short term savings
 An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in highest rated corporate bonds
*Investors shouldconsulttheir financial advisers ifin doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.
Macaulay duration is the weightedaverage termtomaturityofthe cash flows from a bond.The weight ofeach cash flowis determinedby dividingthe presentvalueofthe cash flowby the price
ICICI Prudential Money Market Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 Short term savings
 A money market scheme that seeks to provide reasonable returns, commensurate with low risk while providing a high level of
liquidity
*Investors shouldconsulttheir financialadvisorsifin doubt aboutwhetherthe product issuitablefor them.
ICICI Prudential Gilt Fund issuitable for investors who are seeking*:
 Long term wealth creation
 A Gilt scheme that aims to generate income through investment in Gilts of various maturities.
*Investors shouldconsulttheir financialadvisorsifin doubt aboutwhetherthe product issuitablefor them.
Riskometers
37
ICICI Prudential Liquid Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 Short term savings solution
 A liquid fund that aims to provide reasonable returns commensurate with low risk and providing a high level of liquidity
*Investors shouldconsulttheir financialadvisorsifin doubt aboutwhetherthe product issuitablefor them.
ICICI Prudential Overnight Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 Short term savings solution
 An overnight fund that aims to provide reasonable returns commensurate with low risk and providing a high level of liquidity
*Investors shouldconsult theirfinancialadvisersifindoubt about whetherthe product is suitablefor them
ICICI Prudential Long Term Bond Fund issuitable for investors who are seeking*:
 Long term wealth creation
 A debt scheme that invests in debt and money market instruments with an aim to maximise incomewhile maintaining an optimum balanceof
yield, safety and liquidity.
*Investors should consulttheir financialadvisorsifin doubt aboutwhetherthe product issuitablefor them.
ICICI Prudential Bond Fund issuitable for investors who are seeking*:
 Medium to Long term savings
 A debt scheme that invests in debt and money market instruments with an aim to maximise income while maintaining an optimum balanceof
yield, safety and liquidity.
*Investors should consult their financial advisors if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.
Investors understandthat
their principal will be at
Low to Moderate Risk
Macaulay duration is the weightedaverage termto maturityofthe cash flows from a bond.The weight ofeach cash flowis determinedby dividingthe presentvalueofthe cash flowby the price
Please note that the Risk-o-meter(s) specified above will be evaluated and updated on a monthly basis. The above riskometers are as on Dec 31, 2021 Please refer to https://www.icicipruamc.com/news-and-updates/all-news for more details.
Benchmark Riskometers
38
Scheme Name Scheme Benchmark Name Riskometer
ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund CRISILShort Term Credit Risk Index
Benchmark Riskometers
39
Scheme Name Scheme Benchmark Name
ICICI Prudential Overnight Fund CRISIL Overnight Index
ICICI Prudential Corporate Bond Fund CRISIL AAA Short Term Bond Index
ICICI Prudential Money Market Fund CRISIL Money Market Index
ICICI Prudential LiquidFund Crisil Liquid Fund Index
ICICI Prudential Savings Fund
Nifty Low Duration Debt Index
ICICI Prudential All Seasons Bond Fund
Nifty Composite Debt Index
Benchmark Riskometers
40
Scheme Name Scheme Benchmark Name
ICICI Prudential Banking & PSU Debt Fund CRISILBanking and PSU Debt Index
ICICI Prudential Gilt Fund
CRISILDynamic Gilt Index
ICICI Prudential Medium Term Bond Fund
CRISILMedium Term Debt Index
ICICI Prudential Short Term Fund
CRISILShort Term Bond Fund Index
ICICI Prudential All Seasons Bond Fund
Nifty Composite Debt Index
ICICI Prudential Long Term Bond Fund
Nifty Long Duration Debt Index
ICICI Prudential Bond Fund
Nifty Medium to Long Duration Debt Index
ICICI Prudential Ultra Short Term Fund Nifty Ultra Short Duration Debt Index
ICICI Prudential Floating Interest Fund CRISILLow Duration Debt Index
Potential Risk Class Matrix
41
Sr No Scheme Name Position in the Matrix
1 ICICIPrudential Medium TermBond Fund
2 ICICIPrudential All Seasons Bond Fund
3 ICICIPrudential Savings Fund
4 ICICIPrudential Floating Interest Fund
5 ICICIPrudential Corporate Bond Fund
6 ICICIPrudential Banking & PSU Debt Fund
7 ICICIPrudential Short TermFund
8 ICICIPrudential Bond Fund
9 ICICIPrudential Long Term Bond Fund
10 ICICIPrudential Gilt Fund
11 ICICIPrudential Ultra Short TermFund
Potential Risk Class Matrix
42
Sr No Scheme Name Position in the Matrix
12 ICICIPrudential Overnight Fund
13 ICICIPrudential Liquid Fund
14 ICICIPrudential Money Market Fund
15 ICICIPrudential CreditRisk Fund
Disclaimer:
As per SEBI Circular dated , June 07, 2021; the potential risk class (PRC) matrix basedon interest rate risk and credit risk,is as above
Mutual Fund Disclaimer
43
Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
All figures and other data given in this document are dated. The same may or may not be relevant at a future date. The AMC takes no responsibility of
updating any data/information in this material from time to time. The information shall not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part
or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company
Limited. Prospective investors are advised to consult their own legal, tax and financial advisors to determine possible tax, legal and other financial implication
or consequence of subscribingto the units of ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund. Past Performance may or may not be sustainedinfuture.
Disclaimer: In the preparation of the material contained in this document, ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Ltd. (the AMC) has used information
that is pub- licly available, including Budget speech and information developed in-house. The stock(s)/sector(s) mentioned in this slide do not constitute any
recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in this stock(s). Some of the material used in the document may
have been obtained from mem- bers/persons other than the AMC and/or its affiliates and which may have been made available to the AMC and/or to its
affiliates. Information gathered and material used in this document is believed to be from reliable sources. The AMC however does not warrant the accuracy,
reasonableness and / or completeness of any information. We have included statements / opinions / recommendations in this document, which contain
words, or phrases such as “will”, “expect”, “should”, “believe” and similar expressions or variations of such expressions, that are “forward looking
statements”. Actual results may differ materially from those suggested by the forward looking statements due to risk or uncertainties associated with our
expectations with respect to, but not limited to, exposure to market risks, general economic and political conditions in India and other countries globally,
which have an impact on our services and/ or investments, the monetary and interest policies of India, inflation, deflation, unanticipated turbulence in interest
rates, foreign exchange rates, equity prices or other rates or prices etc. ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Lim- ited (including its affiliates), the
Mutual Fund, The Trust and any of its officers, directors, personnel and employees, shall not liable for any loss, damage of any nature, including but not
limited to direct, indirect, punitive, special, exemplary, consequential, as also any loss of profit in any way arising from the use of this material in any manner.
Further,the information contained herein should not be construed as forecast or promise or investment advice.The recipient alone shall be fully responsible/are
liable for any decision takenon this material.

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Annual Fixed Income Outlook 2022 | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund

  • 1. 1
  • 2. Recap of Outlook 2021 – Turning Points ahead 2 Normalization of Stimulus Measures Central Banks pausedfurther rate cuts & speeding up taperingprogram Concentrated to Broad Based Rally During CY2021,market rally was broadbased unlike 2020 Less returns potential in Duration RBI has paused further rate cuts & is likely tohike rates Deflation to Reflation Emerging & Developed Countries are witnessinghighinflation Changein Market Cycle 2021 witnessedextreme market movements due to changing macros WHAT WE SAID LAST YEAR? Source – www.CNBC.com,EdelweissResearch,RBI,JMFinancial,Morgan Stanley.Dataas ofDec 31,2021. RBI – ReserveBank of India.*Pleaseclick onfollowinglinkfor detailedoutlook 2021document – AnnualOutlook 2021
  • 3. 3 What caught our eye in 2021?
  • 4. Obsessive Cryptocurrency Drive & Real-ity check! Source:Canara Robeco,BOFA Research.WWII – WorldWar2,GATT – General Agreementon Tariffs & Trade,NAFTA– NorthAmerican FreeTrade Agreement,WTO– WorldTrade Organization,GDC – Global FinancialCrisis,COVID – CoronavirusDisease.Past performancemay or maynot sustain in future 4 The number of Non-FungibleToken (NFT) sales has shot up significantly from ~1,50,000 to 1.2 Mn per month in recent months Real Assets are at all time lows relative to Financial Assets since 1925
  • 5. Fabulous ‘Five’! Source:BOFA Global research,MSCI.Data as ofNov 30,2021.FAAMG– Facebook.Apple,Amazon,Microsoft,Google.The sectors)/stock(s)mentionedin this slide do not constitute any recommendation andICICI PrudentialMutualFund may or may not have any future positionin this sector(s)/stock(s).Pastperformance may or may not sustain in future 5 “FAAMG” stocks form 5 of the top 10 largest companies in the world by marketcapitalization. Microsoftis the only company featured in top 10 stocks throughout the 21st century. Tesla is the new entrant 31-Mar-00 Company as a % of marketcap Microsoft 2.5 Cisco 2.4 GE 2.3 Intel 2.0 NTT Docomo 1.8 Vodafone 1.5 Exxon 1.2 Nippon Telegraph 1.1 Walmart 1.1 Nokia 1.1 11-Oct-02 Company as a % of marketcap Microsoft 2.1 GE 1.9 Walmart 1.9 Exxon 1.9 Pfizer 1.5 J&J 1.4 AIG 1.2 Citigroup 1.2 BP 1.2 Coca Cola 1.0 02-Nov-07 Company as a % of marketcap Exxon 2.2 Petrochina 1.6 Walmart 1.3 Chinamobile 1.1 Microsoft 1.0 AT&T 0.9 J&J 0.9 P&G 0.9 Ind & Comm Bank ofChina 0.9 Chevron 0.8 13-Mar-09 Company as a % of marketcap Exxon 1.5 GE 1.2 Chinamobile 1.2 Microsoft 1.1 Gazprom 0.9 Ind & Comm Bank ofChina 0.9 China Petro & ChemCorp 0.8 BP 0.8 AT&T 0.7 China Constr Bank 0.7 30-Nov-21 Company as a % of marketcap Apple 4.1 Microsoft 3.5 Amazon 2.4 Tesla 1.4 AlphabetA 1.3 AlphabetC 1.2 NVIDIA 1.2 Meta Platforms A 1.2 Taiwan Semiconductor 0.8 JP Morgan Chase 0.7
  • 6. 6 Fixed Income Outlook Shifting Sands – A year of active management
  • 7. Recap – Glancing through 2021 (Fixed Income) Data as on Nov 30,2021.Source – RBI,www.federalreserve.gov,MOSPI.RBI – ReserveBankofIndia,CRR – Cash Reserve Ratio,OMO– Open Market Operations,GDP – Gross Domestic Product,G-SAP– G-Sec Acquisition Programme,VAT– Value AddedTax,VRRR– Variable Rate ReverseRepo.Past performancemayor maynot sustain in future 7 5.80 5.90 6.00 6.10 6.20 6.30 6.40 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 RBI announces reversal of CRR to 4% from 3% in two phases Govt. announces record borrowing plan for FY2022 Yields soften due to OMO purchases by RBI Rise in crude oil prices affected yields Muted GDP growth and OMO purchases softened yields RBI’s new G-SAP OMOs of Rs 1 lakh crore softened yields Yields fall below 6% as RBI announces higher G- sec purchases May inflation figure of 6.3% hurt bond prices Bond yields surge as crude climbs higher US Fed’s dovish statement eased bond yields Crude crosses $80/bbl, RBI discontinues G-SAP Govt. announces cut in excise/VAT on fuel RBI buys longer term G-secs under G-SAP RBI conducts 28-day VRRR for first time 10 Yr-Gsec (%)
  • 8. Yield Curve Movement Data as on Dec 28,2021,CRISIL Research 8 Complete yield curve have moved higher and the short-ended of the yield curve has comparatively moved faster comparatively resulting in some reduction in steepness. We believe this shift to continue with RBI slowly withdrawing stimulus measures. 3 4 5 6 7 1M 3M 6M 1 Yr 2 Yrs 3 Yrs 5 Yrs 10 Yrs Yield Curve – Gsec (%) 28-Dec-21 31-Dec-20 3 4 5 6 7 8 1M 3M 6M 1 Yr 2 Yrs 3 Yrs 5 Yrs 10 Yrs Yield Curve – Corporate Bond (%) 28-Dec-21 31-Dec-20
  • 9. Case for Active Management Shifting Sands RBI Policy Measures HighValuations on shorter end Macros at a Divergence 9
  • 10. RBI Policy Measures and Debt Cycle 2017 2018 2020 2021 Inflation Band : +/- 4% Interest rates 2019 2022E Inflation Band : +/- 4% Interest rates SHORTER DEBT CYCLE: Mainly due to inflation targeting, which resulted in short-term volatilitybut long stable cycle LONGER DEBT CYCLE: RBI giving precedence to growth at the cost of inflation, may result in longer cycle with higher volatility at the turns RBI – Reserve BankofIndia,E - estimated 10 POST 2013: DEBT CYCLE EXPECTED DEBT CYCLE
  • 11. RBI Policy Measures – Growth & Inflation Source:MOSPI.Data as ofNov 30,2021, CPI – Consumer PriceIndex.GDP – Gross DomesticProduct 11 RBI continues to give precedence to growth over inflation which is moving closer to its upper tolerance band 4.9 6.2 0 2 4 6 8 Mar-18 Jul-18 Nov-18 Mar-19 Jul-19 Nov-19 Mar-20 Jul-20 Nov-20 Mar-21 Jul-21 Nov-21 CPI inflation Core inflation (excl. food & oil) India GDP Growth (%) India CPI Inflation (% YoY) 5.4 4.6 3.3 3.0 -24.4 -7.4 0.5 1.6 20.1 8.4 -27 -17 -7 3 13 23 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21
  • 12. RBI Policy Measures – Expected Roadmap LAF – Liquidity AdjustmentFacility CEASE INJECTING LIQUIDITY RBI STATUS INITIATED INITIATED PENDING PENDING PENDING LIQUIDITY ABSORPOTION NARROWINGLAF CORRIDOR CHANGEIN STANCE REPO RATE HIKE 01 02 03 04 05 12 We expect RBI to normalize stimulusmeasures& take below steps to strike a balance between Growth & Inflation
  • 13. RBI Policy Measures – Cease Injecting Liquidity Source:RBI, NirmalBang.Data as ofNov 30,2021, CRR – Cash ReserveRatio,OMO– Open Market Operation,GSAP– G-Sec Acquisition Programme 13 CRR was restored back to 4% in May 2021 to moderate banking liquidity RBI started reducing quantum of OMOs and discontinued GSAP to reduce injection of liquidity 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1QFY21 2QFY21 3QFY21 4QFY21 1QFY22 2QFY22 Liquidity Measures OMO purchases GSAP Operation twist 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21 Cash Reserve Ratio (%)
  • 14. RBI Policy Measures – Liquidity Absorption Source:RBI,Spark Research.Data as ofNov 30,2021,VRRR – Variable Rate Reverse Repo,FYTD – FinancialYear tillDate 14 4.2 -1.0 1.2 7.2 5.3 8.2 6.6 3.3 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 Sep-16 Apr-17 Nov-17 Jun-18 Jan-19 Aug-19 Mar-20 Oct-20 May-21 Dec-21 Call Money Rate (%) Net Liquidity (Rs Tn) Liquidity in the System Net liquidity (Rs tn) Call money rate (%) - RHS 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 0 200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 1200000 1400000 1600000 1800000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg of VRRR Sum of Auction Amt (Cr) VRRR Amount and Cut-off Rate in FYTD 22 Sum of Auction Aomunt (In Cr) Average of Variable rate reverse repo (cut off rate)
  • 15. RBI is expected to narrow the LAF corridor by establishingthe 25 bps gap which was observed during pre- pandemic phase RBI Policy Measures – Narrowing LAF Corridor Source:RBI.Data as ofNov 30, 2021, LAF – LiquidityAdjustment Facility,MSF – Marginal StandlngFacility,bps – basispoints 15 3 4 5 6 7 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19 Dec-19 Feb-20 Apr-20 Jun-20 Aug-20 Oct-20 Dec-20 Feb-21 Apr-21 Jun-21 Aug-21 Oct-21 Dec-21 LAF Corridor Reverse Repo Rate Repo Rate MSF Rate 65 bps 25 bps
  • 16. Shifting Sands – Macros at a divergence Source – JP Morgan Research.Data as ofNov 30,2021,US – UnitedStates,GDP – GrossDomestic Product 16 Global stimulus measures were unprecedented compared to domestic stimulus, which resulted in global growth picking up faster compared to India Global Stimulus vs Domestic Stimulus Global Growth vs Domestic Growth -20 -16 -12 -8 -4 0 Mar-12 Dec-12 Sep-13 Jun-14 Mar-15 Dec-15 Sep-16 Jun-17 Mar-18 Dec-18 Sep-19 Jun-20 Mar-21 Dec-21 Fiscal Deficit as % of GDP India US -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YoY GDP Growth (%) World US India
  • 17. Source:JP Morgan Research.Data as ofNov 30,2021 17 Global business cycle especially US is in matured phase. India’s business cycle still remains in nascent stage which is visible in the inflation rate Shifting Sands – Macros at a divergence Global Business Cycle vs Domestic Business Cycle Global Inflation vs Domestic Inflation 0 5 10 15 20 25 Jan-16 Aug-16 Mar-17 Oct-17 May-18 Dec-18 Jul-19 Feb-20 Sep-20 Apr-21 Nov-21 Unemployment Rate (%) India Unemployment rate US Unemployment rate -1 1 3 5 7 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Feb-17 Aug-17 Feb-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 Sep-19 Apr-20 Oct-20 Apr-21 Nov-21 Inflation (%) India World (Eco Wgt) US
  • 18. High valuations at the short-end of the yield curve, which still trades below or close to repo-rate. Belly of the curve, offers low risk-rewardbenefit. Long-end term premium is reasonable but need to be managed actively based on RBI measures KEY TAKEAWAY: Shifting Sands – Valuations Data as on Dec 28,2021,CRISIL Research 3 4 5 6 7 1M 10 Yrs 3M 6M Gsec Yield Curve (%) 1 Yr 2Yrs 3 Yrs 5 Yrs Corporate Bond Yield Curve (%) High term premium but follow tactical approach due to rising interest-rate cycle Risk reward benefit moderate to low Low carry 18
  • 19. To Sum Up – Shifting Sands in Fixed Income Space 19 SCENARIO IN LAST COUPLE OF YEARS Easy Monetary Policy + Interest Rate Cuts = led to higher returns for Duration Funds APPROACH Long Duration Funds and Passive Long Duration Funds SCENARIO GOING FORWARD Normalization of liquidity conditions + rate hikes + change in policy stance = May result in volatility APPROACH • Be nimble, recommend active management approach • Invest in Spread Assets • Instruments like FRB (Floating rate bonds) which may benefit from rising interest rates
  • 20. Summary – Fixed Income Outlook 20 • In the Fixed Income space, currently there are lot of dynamic elements at play • Margin of safety remains low and hence risk-management should be given importance • Post the pricing-in of rate hikes and liquidity normalization, yields may appear reasonable • RBI is giving precedence to growth, which may lead to longer and volatile cycle • We expect RBI to narrow LAF corridor as the next step of withdrawing stimulus • We are in a interest-rate rise cycle and hence recommend exposure towards floating rate instruments • In the current phase, more nimble and active duration management approach is recommended • We recommend investing in spread assets with an aim to benefit from higher carry
  • 21. Triggers/Risk 21 Quick Growth rebound US Fed Roadmap for withdrawal of stimulus US Fed 10Y Rates Global Bond Indexinclusion Impact & Severity of new COVID variants (currently OMICRON) May result in faster withdrawal of stimulus Faster withdrawal – negative for markets Higher rates may result in outflow May help in absorption of bond supply May impact pace of growth recovery
  • 22. 2022 – Avoid Investing Mistakes 22 Reacting to temporary under- performance due to active management Not following Asset Allocation Not giving due respect to valuations Investing based on past returns Investing in IPOs without understanding the business Not opting for debt as a capital preservation tool 01 06 02 04 05 03
  • 23. 23 Investment Approach & Scheme Recommendations for 2022
  • 24. We are here Accrual Strategy Interest Rate Hike Period: Low duration funds Interest Rate Pause Period: Active Duration Management Interest Rate Fall Period: High Duration Fundsand Passive Long Duration Funds Interest Rate Pause Period: Active Duration Management Time Interest Rate Investment Approach For 2022 24 Current Interest rate-rise cycle & Product Strategy (Illustration) 47
  • 26. Floating Rate Instruments 26 Prices of typical Fixed Coupon rate bonds tend to go down when interest rates rise and vice versa Floater Bonds provides a cushion in rising interest rate scenario and at the same time deliver better returns with attached Floater Floating Rate Bonds (FRBs) are bonds that have a variable coupon, which can be linked to reference rate like MIBOR or T-Bills plus a fixed spread.
  • 27. Source:CRISIL Research,Data as on Dec 28,2021.Past performance mayor may not sustain in future Active Duration Approach Currently, the term premium is at one of the highest levels seen in the last 10 years and active duration may help in capturing the same with adequate risk management 27 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Term Premium (10 Yr Gsec - 1 Yr Tbill) % Long Term Average Premium % Average – 86 bps 222 bps
  • 28. Source:CRISIL Research,Data as on Nov 30,2021.Past performance may or may not sustain in future Active Duration Management in ICICI Prudential’sFixed Income Schemes 28 Pre-pandemic phase COVID (Wave 1): increased duration to benefitfrom RBI easing monetary conditions Economy Opening Up: lowered duration COVID (Wave 2): increased duration as RBI expected to give precedence to growth RBI normalizing stimulus measures : moderated duration Feb-2020 Aug-2020 Feb-2021 July-2021 Nov-2021 ICICI Prudential All Seasons Bond Fund 4.61 5.72 2.44 4.12 3.19 ICICI Prudential Banking & PSU Debt Fund 2.43 3.37 1.79 3.86 3.74 ICICI Prudential Bond Fund 3.82 4.89 3.96 5.38 4.41 ICICI Prudential Corporate Bond Fund 1.84 2.88 1.76 2.31 2.84 ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund 1.76 2.24 1.38 1.92 1.78 ICICI Prudential Floating Interest Fund 0.96 1.37 0.54 0.99 1.53 ICICI Prudential Gilt Fund 6.95 8.05 5.53 5.91 7.33 ICICI Prudential Liquid Fund 0.09 0.11 0.10 0.09 0.06 ICICI Prudential Long Term Bond Fund 7.43 7.93 7.14 8.72 8.40 ICICI Prudential Medium Term Bond Fund 2.89 3.55 2.14 2.97 3.10 ICICI Prudential Money MarketFund 0.32 0.42 0.24 0.28 0.14 ICICI Prudential Savings Fund 0.80 0.92 0.55 0.82 0.87 ICICI Prudential Short Term Fund 2.31 2.85 1.61 2.40 2.01 ICICI Prudential Ultra Short Term Fund 0.42 0.30 0.38 0.33 0.23 Major Phases & Duration Movement
  • 29. Source:CRISIL Research,Data as on Dec 28,2021,CD – CertificateofDeposit,bps – basispoints,Pastperformance may or may not sustain in future Accrual Strategy AAA(3Year) Instrument Type A1+(6MnthCD) RepoRate Gsec(10Year) AA(3Year) A(3Year) Yields (%) 31-Dec-19 28-Dec-21 6.80 5.60 5.56 4.15 5.15 4.00 6.51 6.48 7.85 7.92 9.47 9.72 29 120 141 115 3 -7 -25 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 AAA(3 Year) A1+(6Mnth CD) Repo Rate Cut Gsec(10 Year) AA(3 Year) A(3 Year) Rate Transmission (bps) for from 31-Dec-2019 Value Zone Expensive Zone
  • 30. Scheme Recommendations 30 Approach Scheme Name Call to Action Rationale Short Duration ICICI Prudential Savings Fund ICICI Prudential Ultra Short Term Fund ICICI Prudential Floating Interest Fund Invest for parking surplus funds Accrual + Moderate Volatility Accrual Schemes ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund ICICI Prudential Medium Term Bond Fund Core Portfolio with >1 Yr investment horizon Better Accrual Dynamic Duration ICICI Prudential All Seasons Bond Fund Long Term Approach with >3 Yrs investment horizon Active Duration and Better Accrual
  • 31. Data as on Dec 31,2021. Debt Valuation Index considersWPI,CPI,Sensex returns,GoldreturnsandReal estate returns overG-Secyield,CurrentAccount Balance,Fiscal Balance,CreditGrowth andCrude Oil Movementfor calculation. Our guiding light for Duration Risk Management Our Debt Valuation Index suggests caution on high duration as the interest rates are expected to remain volatile 31 Very Cautious Aggressive Very Aggressive Cautious Very Cautious Cautious Aggressive Very Aggressive 2.04 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21 Very Cautious Cautious Moderate Aggressive Highly Aggressive
  • 33. Our Fixed Income Schemes 33 Macaulay duration is the weightedaverage termtomaturityofthe cash flows from a bond.The weight ofeach cash flowis determinedby dividingthe presentvalueofthe cash flowby the price Scheme Name Typeof Scheme ICICI PrudentialUltra Short Term Fund An open ended ultra-short term debt schemeinvesting in instruments suchthat the Macaulay duration of the portfolio is between 3 months and 6 months.A moderate interest rate risk and moderate credit risk. ICICI PrudentialShort Term Fund An open ended short term debt schemeinvesting in instruments suchthat theMacaulay duration of theportfolio is between 1 Year and 3 Years.A relatively high interest rate risk and moderatecredit risk. ICICI Prudential Medium Term Bond Fund An open ended medium term debt schemeinvestingin instruments suchthat the Macaulay duration of the portfolio is between 3 Years and 4 Years. TheMacaulay duration of the portfolio is 1 Year to 4 years under anticipated adverse situation.A relatively high interest rate riskand moderatecredit risk. ICICI PrudentialCredit Risk Fund An open ended debt schemepredominantly investingin AA and below rated corporate bonds. A relatively high interest rate risk and relatively high credit risk. ICICI PrudentialFloating Interest Fund An open ended debt schemepredominantly investingin floatingrate instruments (including fixedrate instruments converted tofloating rate exposures using swaps/derivatives).A relatively highinterest rate risk and moderatecredit risk. ICICI PrudentialAll Seasons Bond Fund An open ended dynamic debt schemeinvestingacross duration. A relatively high interest rate risk and moderate credit risk. ICICI Prudential Savings Fund An open ended low duration debt schemeinvesting in instruments suchthat theMacaulay duration of the portfolio is between 6 months and12 months.A relatively high interest rate risk and moderate credit risk. ICICI Prudential Banking & PSU Debt Fund An open ended debt schemepredominantly investingin Debt instruments of banks, Public Sector Undertakings,Public Financial Institutions and Municipal Bonds.A relatively high interest rate risk and moderatecredit risk. ICICI PrudentialCorporate Bond Fund An open ended debt schemepredominantly investingin AA+ and above rated corporate bonds. A relatively high interest rate risk and moderate credit risk. ICICI PrudentialMoney Market Fund An open ended debt schemeinvestingin money market instruments.A relatively low interest rate risk and moderate credit risk. ICICI Prudential Liquid Fund An open ended liquid scheme.A relatively lowinterest rate risk and moderatecredit risk. ICICI Prudential Bond Fund An open ended medium tolong term debt schemeinvestingin instruments suchthat the Macaulay duration of the portfoliois between4 Years and 7 Years. TheMacaulay duration of the portfoliois 1 Year to7 years under anticipated adversesituation. A relatively high interest rate risk and moderatecredit risk. ICICI Prudential Gilt Fund An open ended debt schemeinvestingin government securities across maturity.A relatively high interest rate risk and relatively lowcredit risk. ICICI Prudential Overnight Fund An open ended debt schemeinvestingin overnight securities.A relatively lowinterest rate riskand relatively low credit risk. ICICI Prudential Long Term Bond Fund An open ended debt schemewithMacaulay duration greater than7 years. A relatively high interest rate riskand relatively lowcredit risk.
  • 34. Riskometers 34 ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:  Medium term savings  A debt scheme that aims to generate income through investing predominantly in AA and below rated corporate bonds while maintaining the optimum balance of yield, safety and liquidity *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential Medium TermBond Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:  Medium term savings  A debt scheme that invests in debt and money market instruments with a view to maximize income while maintaining optimum balance of yield, safety and liquidity *Investors shouldconsult theirfinancialadvisers ifin doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential Short Term Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:  Short term income generation and capital appreciation solution  A debt fund that aims to generate income by investing in a range of debt and money market instruments of various maturities. *Investors shouldconsult their financialadvisersifin doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential All Seasons Bond Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:  All duration savings  A debt scheme that invests in debt and money market instruments with a view to maximize income while maintaining optimum balance of yield, safety andliquidity *Investors shouldconsult their financialadvisersifin doubt about whether the product is suitable for them Macaulay duration is the weightedaverage termtomaturityofthe cash flows from a bond.The weight ofeach cash flowis determinedby dividingthe presentvalueofthe cash flowby the price
  • 35. Riskometers 35 ICICI Prudential Floating Interest Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:  Short term savings  An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in floating rate instruments *Investors shouldconsult theirfinancialadvisers ifin doubt about whetherthe product is suitable forthem ICICI Prudential Ultra Short Term Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:  Short term regular income  An open ended ultra-short term debt scheme investing in a range of debt and money market instruments *Investors shouldconsult theirfinancialadvisers ifin doubt about whetherthe product is suitable forthem Macaulay duration is the weightedaverage termto maturityofthe cash flows from a bond.The weight ofeach cash flowis determinedby dividingthe presentvalueofthe cash flowby the price ICICI Prudential Savings Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:  Short term savings  An open ended low duration debt scheme that aims to maximize income by investing in debt and money market instruments while maintaining optimum balance of yield, safety andliquidity *Investors shouldconsulttheir financial advisers ifin doubt about whether the product is suitable for them. ICICI Prudential Banking & PSU Debt Fund issuitable for investors who are seeking*:  Short term savings  An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in Debt instruments of banks, Public Sector Undertakings, Public Financial Institutions and Municipal Bonds *Investors shouldconsulttheir financial advisers ifin doubt about whether the product is suitable for them. Investors understandthat their principal will be at Low to Moderate Risk
  • 36. Riskometers 36 ICICI Prudential Corporate Bond Fund is suitable for investors whoare seeking*:  Short term savings  An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in highest rated corporate bonds *Investors shouldconsulttheir financial advisers ifin doubt about whether the product is suitable for them. Macaulay duration is the weightedaverage termtomaturityofthe cash flows from a bond.The weight ofeach cash flowis determinedby dividingthe presentvalueofthe cash flowby the price ICICI Prudential Money Market Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:  Short term savings  A money market scheme that seeks to provide reasonable returns, commensurate with low risk while providing a high level of liquidity *Investors shouldconsulttheir financialadvisorsifin doubt aboutwhetherthe product issuitablefor them. ICICI Prudential Gilt Fund issuitable for investors who are seeking*:  Long term wealth creation  A Gilt scheme that aims to generate income through investment in Gilts of various maturities. *Investors shouldconsulttheir financialadvisorsifin doubt aboutwhetherthe product issuitablefor them.
  • 37. Riskometers 37 ICICI Prudential Liquid Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:  Short term savings solution  A liquid fund that aims to provide reasonable returns commensurate with low risk and providing a high level of liquidity *Investors shouldconsulttheir financialadvisorsifin doubt aboutwhetherthe product issuitablefor them. ICICI Prudential Overnight Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:  Short term savings solution  An overnight fund that aims to provide reasonable returns commensurate with low risk and providing a high level of liquidity *Investors shouldconsult theirfinancialadvisersifindoubt about whetherthe product is suitablefor them ICICI Prudential Long Term Bond Fund issuitable for investors who are seeking*:  Long term wealth creation  A debt scheme that invests in debt and money market instruments with an aim to maximise incomewhile maintaining an optimum balanceof yield, safety and liquidity. *Investors should consulttheir financialadvisorsifin doubt aboutwhetherthe product issuitablefor them. ICICI Prudential Bond Fund issuitable for investors who are seeking*:  Medium to Long term savings  A debt scheme that invests in debt and money market instruments with an aim to maximise income while maintaining an optimum balanceof yield, safety and liquidity. *Investors should consult their financial advisors if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them. Investors understandthat their principal will be at Low to Moderate Risk Macaulay duration is the weightedaverage termto maturityofthe cash flows from a bond.The weight ofeach cash flowis determinedby dividingthe presentvalueofthe cash flowby the price Please note that the Risk-o-meter(s) specified above will be evaluated and updated on a monthly basis. The above riskometers are as on Dec 31, 2021 Please refer to https://www.icicipruamc.com/news-and-updates/all-news for more details.
  • 38. Benchmark Riskometers 38 Scheme Name Scheme Benchmark Name Riskometer ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund CRISILShort Term Credit Risk Index
  • 39. Benchmark Riskometers 39 Scheme Name Scheme Benchmark Name ICICI Prudential Overnight Fund CRISIL Overnight Index ICICI Prudential Corporate Bond Fund CRISIL AAA Short Term Bond Index ICICI Prudential Money Market Fund CRISIL Money Market Index ICICI Prudential LiquidFund Crisil Liquid Fund Index ICICI Prudential Savings Fund Nifty Low Duration Debt Index ICICI Prudential All Seasons Bond Fund Nifty Composite Debt Index
  • 40. Benchmark Riskometers 40 Scheme Name Scheme Benchmark Name ICICI Prudential Banking & PSU Debt Fund CRISILBanking and PSU Debt Index ICICI Prudential Gilt Fund CRISILDynamic Gilt Index ICICI Prudential Medium Term Bond Fund CRISILMedium Term Debt Index ICICI Prudential Short Term Fund CRISILShort Term Bond Fund Index ICICI Prudential All Seasons Bond Fund Nifty Composite Debt Index ICICI Prudential Long Term Bond Fund Nifty Long Duration Debt Index ICICI Prudential Bond Fund Nifty Medium to Long Duration Debt Index ICICI Prudential Ultra Short Term Fund Nifty Ultra Short Duration Debt Index ICICI Prudential Floating Interest Fund CRISILLow Duration Debt Index
  • 41. Potential Risk Class Matrix 41 Sr No Scheme Name Position in the Matrix 1 ICICIPrudential Medium TermBond Fund 2 ICICIPrudential All Seasons Bond Fund 3 ICICIPrudential Savings Fund 4 ICICIPrudential Floating Interest Fund 5 ICICIPrudential Corporate Bond Fund 6 ICICIPrudential Banking & PSU Debt Fund 7 ICICIPrudential Short TermFund 8 ICICIPrudential Bond Fund 9 ICICIPrudential Long Term Bond Fund 10 ICICIPrudential Gilt Fund 11 ICICIPrudential Ultra Short TermFund
  • 42. Potential Risk Class Matrix 42 Sr No Scheme Name Position in the Matrix 12 ICICIPrudential Overnight Fund 13 ICICIPrudential Liquid Fund 14 ICICIPrudential Money Market Fund 15 ICICIPrudential CreditRisk Fund Disclaimer: As per SEBI Circular dated , June 07, 2021; the potential risk class (PRC) matrix basedon interest rate risk and credit risk,is as above
  • 43. Mutual Fund Disclaimer 43 Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully. All figures and other data given in this document are dated. The same may or may not be relevant at a future date. The AMC takes no responsibility of updating any data/information in this material from time to time. The information shall not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited. Prospective investors are advised to consult their own legal, tax and financial advisors to determine possible tax, legal and other financial implication or consequence of subscribingto the units of ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund. Past Performance may or may not be sustainedinfuture. Disclaimer: In the preparation of the material contained in this document, ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Ltd. (the AMC) has used information that is pub- licly available, including Budget speech and information developed in-house. The stock(s)/sector(s) mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in this stock(s). Some of the material used in the document may have been obtained from mem- bers/persons other than the AMC and/or its affiliates and which may have been made available to the AMC and/or to its affiliates. Information gathered and material used in this document is believed to be from reliable sources. The AMC however does not warrant the accuracy, reasonableness and / or completeness of any information. We have included statements / opinions / recommendations in this document, which contain words, or phrases such as “will”, “expect”, “should”, “believe” and similar expressions or variations of such expressions, that are “forward looking statements”. Actual results may differ materially from those suggested by the forward looking statements due to risk or uncertainties associated with our expectations with respect to, but not limited to, exposure to market risks, general economic and political conditions in India and other countries globally, which have an impact on our services and/ or investments, the monetary and interest policies of India, inflation, deflation, unanticipated turbulence in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, equity prices or other rates or prices etc. ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Lim- ited (including its affiliates), the Mutual Fund, The Trust and any of its officers, directors, personnel and employees, shall not liable for any loss, damage of any nature, including but not limited to direct, indirect, punitive, special, exemplary, consequential, as also any loss of profit in any way arising from the use of this material in any manner. Further,the information contained herein should not be construed as forecast or promise or investment advice.The recipient alone shall be fully responsible/are liable for any decision takenon this material.