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Insurance, Politics, and Economics in a Post-
Pandemic World
Insurance Information Institute w 110 William Street w New York, NY 10038
michell@iii.org w 646.498.9607 w www.iii.org
Prepared for NAMIC’s 2021 Commercial and Personal Lines Seminar | Chicago, July 21, 2021
Dr. Michel Leonard, CBE, Senior Economist and Vice President
Triple-I and Its Mission
2
A world with MORE insurance
We are the trusted source of unique,
data-driven insights on insurance…
……to inform and empower
consumers.
2
Insurance & Economic Leadership
1AM Best and FDIC; 2PC 360, Insurance Industry Crisis; 3U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2020; 4U.S. Department of Commerce, 2020; 5Federal Reserve, 2019; 62011–2014,
Insurance Industry Charitable Foundation – amount donated so far to fight Covid-19.
$630B 3.0%
US GDP3
Premium Taxes Paid4 $23.6B
Muni Bond Investment5 $500B
Charity/Volunteerism6 $280M
2.8M Employed
Need to Fill
400K+ by 20222
2010
Bank Failures: 157
Insurance Impairments1: 4
Policyholder Surplus:
~$914B
Economic Growth
Promoter/Facilitator
Strong Jobs Pool/
Provider
Sustainable
Business Model
End
Q4/20
3
Economic Drivers of Insurance Industry
Performance
Economic Outlook and Recovery: Two Competing Views
The Market View
Exponential growth in 2021 and slower growth in 2022
The Fed View
Some growth in 2021 and continued growth in 2022
The Fed View: Better for the Insurance Industry
5
The Fed: All About Employment
Q1: 6.3% (BLS)
Aug: 6% (BLS)
Fed Goal: 4-5%
6
Markets: All About Inflation
Markets: Could reach as high as 8% in 2021
Fed: Currently forecasted to reach 2.4% by year end
7
Inflation Trends & Forecasts
Awaiting Q2
results to revise
our forecast.
Likely accelerating
price increases.
Fed raising forecast from
1.7% to 2.4%.
Inflation remains
“transitionary.”
8
Runaway Inflation: The Meaning of “Transitionary”
All inflation is local: significant differences across categories
YoY Change (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Poultry 6.1 4.8 4.4 0.7 0.4 1.2
Housing 1.8 1.8 2.1 2.6 2.9 3.1
Lumber 57.4 59.8 65.3 89.7 114.3 97.5
Motor Vehicles Parts 1.0 1.6 1.6 2.3 2.4 2.1
9
GDP Outlook and Forecasts BEA raised GDP
forecast from 3.3% to
5.0%
Awaiting Q2 results
to revise our
forecast.
Likely accelerating
price increases.
GDP Growth’s Math: 0% < 3%: Back to Q4 2019 Output
3% < 5%: Back to Q4 2020 Output estimates pre-COVID
5% < 7%: Back to Q2 2021 Output estimates pre-COVID
7% < : Real above 5-year average 2021 growth
10
“Don’t Fight the Fed”
Central banks allowing inflation above interest rates is a tacit admission that
the only way for governments and individuals to meet the debt burden is
through inflation.
This is about managed debt deflation – with central banks aiming to
redistribute the historical wealth transition from Baby Boomers to Millennials
to reduce the debt burden to sustainable levels.
11
Threats to Recovery
Catastrophes COVID Economics
Geopolitical Social Unrest Technology
12
Political and Economic Threats to Recovery
13
COVID-19 and Variants Threat to Recovery
Continued COVID-19 increases abroad pose ongoing risks to supply chains – especially for
those commodities and products causing “transitionary” inflation
14
Insurance Industry Performance
Fairness &
Equality
A New Milestone for Measuring Success
Capital
Protections
Community
Well-being
Economic
Growth
Resilience
16
Slow And Steady Wins The Race…
17
Insurance NPW Still Outperforming Wider Economy
U.S. Economic Drivers U.S. Premium Growth
18
NPW above GDP
+ Inflation
Net Premium Written Growth: 2010-2020 Yearly (all P/C lines)
Sources: NAIC data sourced through S&P Global Intelligence; Insurance Information Institute.
0.7%
3.7%
4.3% 4.5% 4.3%
3.5%
2.6%
4.6%
10.7%
3.4%
0.8%
0.0%
2.5%
5.0%
7.5%
10.0%
12.5%
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Premium Growth: Neutral
19
Outperformed
wider economy
by app. 2%
Combined Ratio: 2001-2020 Yearly (all P/C lines)
116.0
107.3
100.2
98.5
100.9
92.4
95.6
105.1
100.4
102.5
108.3
103.2
96.3
97.2 98.0
100.8
103.9
99.3 99.0 98.7
90
100
110
120
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Hurricanes,
Wildfires
Drive CR
Higher.
Heavy Use of
Reinsurance
Lowered Net
Losses.
Best
Combined
Ratio Since
1949 (87.6)
Higher CAT Losses,
Shrinking Reserve
Releases, Toll of
Soft Market
Sandy
3 Consecutive Years of
U/W Profits; 2nd time
since 1971-73
Combined Ratio: Positive
20
Policyholder Surplus: 2007-2020 Quarterly
Sources: NAIC data sourced through S&P Global Intelligence; Insurance Information Institute.
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
07:Q3
07:Q4
08:Q1
08:Q2
08:Q3
08:Q4
09:Q1
09:Q2
09:Q3
09:Q4
10:Q1
10:Q2
10:Q3
10:Q4
11:Q1
11:Q2
11:Q3
11:Q4
12:Q1
12:Q2
12:Q3
12:Q4
13:Q1
13:Q2
13:Q3
13:Q4
14:Q1
14:Q2
14:Q3
14:Q4
15:Q1
15:Q2
15:Q3
15:Q4
16:Q1
16:Q2
16:Q3
16:Q4
17:Q1
17:Q2
17:Q3
17:Q4
18:Q1
18:Q2
18:Q3
18:Q4
19:Q1
19:Q2
19:Q3
19:Q4
20:Q1
20:Q2
20:Q3
20:Q4
2007:Q3
Pre-Crisis Peak
Drop in 2011 due
to very large CAT
losses
Surplus at end of 2020
stood at $914.3B, an
all-time high
Drop in 2018 due to
unrealized investment
losses
Policyholder Surplus: Positive
$ Billions
21
Key Sources of P/C Insurer Profits
Through fourth quarter. Not adjusted for inflation. Data are before taxes and exclude extraordinary items. Source: NAIC data, sourced from S&P Global Market Intelligence.
$55.9 $58.5 $58.9
$67.7 $66.7
$58.8 $55.9
$69.3 $67.7 $67.3 $63.0
-8.3
-35.3
-13.9
17.5 14.2
11.2
-2.4
-20.8
2.6
7.8
11.6
-$50
-$40
-$30
-$20
-$10
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Net investment gains Underwriting gains/losses
$ Billions
Lower investment income means UW income has to grow.
22
4.5
4.2
3.9
3.7 3.8
3.7
3.4
3.6
3.2
3.0 3.0
3.4
3.1
2.7
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Net Yield on Invested Assets
Sources: NAIC data, sourced from S&P Global Market Intelligence..
Long-term decline in rates likely to shift starting Q1 2022
Triple-I’s view, inline with Fed Watchers’
consensus, is for the Fed to start raising
rates in 2022 but not in 2021.
23
Rising Rates and Inflation: Historical Perspective
Threat to real returns on key insurance portfolio investment classes
24
$37.2
$20.1
$38.4
$71.6
$64.8
$58.3
$44.3
$40.6
$60.8
$63.1
$60.1
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Net Income After Taxes: 2010-2020 Yearly
Sources: NAIC data sourced through S&P Global Intelligence; Insurance Information Institute.
Net Income After Tax: Positive
Billions
25
Agency Mergers & Acquisitions, 2018 – 2020
Sources: Independent Insurance Agents of America (Big I), 2020 Agency Universe Report.
50%
28%
27%
15%
9%
5%
12%
33%
30%
21%
13%
4%
3%
10%
Jumbo
Large
Medium-
Large
Medium
Medium-
Small
Small
Total
24%
12%
9%
3%
4%
2%
4%
19%
9%
6%
10%
3%
3%
5%
55%
41%
39%
29%
29%
26%
29%
39%
48%
32%
35%
31%
33%
31% 2020
2018
One in ten agencies have been involved in acquisitions or mergers within the past two
years. M&A activity is widespread among medium-large, large and jumbo agencies.
Done In Past Two Years Currently in Process Planning for Next Two Years
26
Underwriting Trends
Industry Outlook
Data sources: NAIC data sourced through S&P Global Market Intelligence, MarketScout, Blue Chip Economic Indicators, Congressional Budget Office, PCS, Aon, Munich Re, Energy
Information Agency, FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).
Analysis: Insurance Information Institute, Milliman.
99% 99%
99% 99%
2%
6% 6%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
94%
96%
98%
100%
102%
104%
106%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 E 2021 F 2022 F
Premium
Growth
Combined
Ratio
Combined Ratio DWP Growth NWP Growth
7.1%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
2004:Q2
2005:Q1
2005:Q4
2006:Q3
2007:Q2
2008:Q1
2008:Q4
2009:Q3
2010:Q2
2011:Q1
2011:Q4
2012:Q3
2013:Q2
2014:Q1
2014:Q4
2015:Q3
2016:Q2
2017:Q1
2017:Q4
2018:Q3
2019:Q2
2020:Q1
2020:Q4
%
Chg
from
Yr
Prior
-2.3%
6.0%
5.4%
-3%
0%
3%
6%
9%
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020E
2021F
2022F
%
Chg
from
Yr
Prior
2021 Commentary
Healthy premium growth this year thanks to recovery and hard market
• Interest rates will tighten though slowly, pressuring rates
and the need for underwriting profits.
• Uncertainty from COVID will continue to put pressure on rates.
• This assumes average year for cats (but won’t be!)
Commercial Lines Rate Change
Growth in Nominal GDP (Real GDP + Inflation)
Calendar Year Written Premium and Net Combined Ratio Projections
28
Commercial Property
9%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
2009:Q2
2009:Q4
2010:Q2
2010:Q4
2011:Q2
2011:Q4
2012:Q2
2012:Q4
2013:Q2
2013:Q4
2014:Q2
2014:Q4
2015:Q2
2015:Q4
2016:Q2
2016:Q4
2017:Q2
2017:Q4
2018:Q2
2018:Q4
2019:Q2
2019:Q4
2020:Q2
2020:Q4
%
Chg
from
Yr
Prior
-3%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
2009:Q3
2010:Q1
2010:Q3
2011:Q1
2011:Q3
2012:Q1
2012:Q3
2013:Q1
2013:Q3
2014:Q1
2014:Q3
2015:Q1
2015:Q3
2016:Q1
2016:Q3
2017:Q1
2017:Q3
2018:Q1
2018:Q3
2019:Q1
2019:Q3
2020:Q1
2020:Q3
%
Chg
from
Yr
Prior
94% 102%
87% 88%
7%
6% 6%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
0%
50%
100%
150%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 E 2021 F 2022 F
Premium
Growth
Combined
Ratio
Combined Ratio DWP Growth NWP Growth
Commercial Property Rate Change
Commercial Real Estate Prices for the US
Calendar Year Written Premium and Net Combined Ratio Projections
2020/2021 Commentary
• Not just hurricanes – wildfires, derechos, tornadoes made it a record for
number of cat events.
• Hard market brightens results – if cats stay calm but not expected to!
Watch for:
Vacancies could slowly rise as businesses adjust their need for space in
the new flexible workplace.
Data sources: NAIC data sourced through S&P Global Market Intelligence, MarketScout, Blue Chip Economic Indicators, Congressional Budget Office, PCS, Aon, Munich Re, Energy
Information Agency, FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).
Analysis: Insurance Information Institute, Milliman.
29
Homeowners
Data sources: NAIC data sourced through S&P Global Market Intelligence, MarketScout, Blue Chip Economic Indicators, Congressional Budget Office, PCS, Aon, Munich Re, Energy
Information Agency, FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).
Analysis: Insurance Information Institute, Milliman.
99% 104% 100% 100%
5%
5% 5%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
105%
110%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 E 2021 F 2022 F
Premium
Growth
Combined
Ratio
Combined Ratio DWP Growth NWP Growth
1.3
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
2017:Apr
2017:Jun
2017:Aug
2017:Oct
2017:Dec
2018:Feb
2018:Apr
2018:Jun
2018:Aug
2018:Oct
2018:Dec
2019:Feb
2019:Apr
2019:Jun
2019:Aug
2019:Oct
2019:Dec
2020:Feb
2020:Apr
2020:Jun
2020:Aug
2020:Oct
2020:Dec
2021:Feb
%
Chg
from
Yr
Prior
1,421
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2019:Jun
2019:Jul
2019:Aug
2019:Sep
2019:Oct
2019:Nov
2019:Dec
2020:Jan
2020:Feb
2020:Mar
2020:Apr
2020:May
2020:Jun
2020:July
2020:Aug
2020:Sep
2020:Oct
2020:Nov
2020:Dec
2021:Jan
2021:Feb
2020/2021 Commentary
• Minimal impact from pandemic, recession
• Multiple small- to medium-sized cats hurt 2020 results
Watch for: Above-average hurricane season
PPI for Homeowners Insurance
Thousands of New Privately-Owned Housing Units
Calendar Year Written Premium and Net Combined Ratio Projections
30
Hard Commodity Prices Driving Property Replacement Costs
March: $10.95:
Now down 60%
Dec 2019: $2.95
Still up 45%
31
Commercial Auto
8.3%
-4%
0%
4%
8%
12%
2009:Q4
2010:Q2
2010:Q4
2011:Q2
2011:Q4
2012:Q2
2012:Q4
2013:Q2
2013:Q4
2014:Q2
2014:Q4
2015:Q2
2015:Q4
2016:Q2
2016:Q4
2017:Q2
2017:Q4
2018:Q2
2018:Q4
2019:Q2
2019:Q4
2020:Q2
2020:Q4
%
Chg
from
Yr
Prior
-25%
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
Sep
6
2019
Oct
4
Nov
1
Nov
29
Dec
27
Jan
24
2020
Feb
21
Mar
20
Apr
17
May
15
Jun
12
Jul
10
Aug
7
Sept
4
October
2
Oct
30
Nov
27
Dec
25
Jan
22
Feb
19
%
Chg
from
Yr
Prior
109%
105%
107%
106%
2%
11%
11%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
100%
102%
104%
106%
108%
110%
112%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 E 2021 F 2022 F
Premium
Growth
Combined
Ratio
Combined Ratio DWP Growth NWP Growth
2020/2021 Commentary
• Line was hard-hit by fall in exposures but will bounce back in
2021.
Watch for:
Was 2020 end-of-year trends a fluke?
6.4%
Commercial Auto Rate Changes
4 Week Moving Average US Distillate Fuel Oil (Diesel) Supplied
Calendar Year Written Premium and Net Combined Ratio Projections
Data sources: NAIC data sourced through S&P Global Market Intelligence, MarketScout, Blue Chip Economic Indicators, Congressional Budget Office, PCS, Aon, Munich Re, Energy
Information Agency, FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).
Analysis: Insurance Information Institute, Milliman.
32
Personal Auto
99%
92%
100% 100%
-1%
5%
4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
85%
90%
95%
100%
105%
110%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 E 2021 F 2022 F
Premium
Growth
Combined
Ratio
Combined Ratio DWP Growth NWP Growth
YTD Vehicle Miles Traveled Through December
Total Vehicle Sales
Calendar Year Written Premium and Net Combined Ratio Projections
-4%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
2015:Q1
2015:Q2
2015:Q3
2015:Q4
2016:Q1
2016:Q2
2016:Q3
2016:Q4
2017:Q1
2017:Q2
2017:Q3
2017:Q4
2018:Q1
2018:Q2
2018:Q3
2018:Q4
2019:Q1
2019:Q2
2019:Q3
2019:Q4
2020:Q1
2020:Q2
2020:Q3
2020:Q4
%
Chg
from
Yr
Prior
13%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
%
Chg
from
Yr
Prior
Data sources: NAIC data sourced through S&P Global Market Intelligence, MarketScout, Blue Chip Economic Indicators, Congressional Budget Office, PCS, Aon, Munich Re, Energy
Information Agency, FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).
Analysis: Insurance Information Institute, Milliman.
2020/2021 Commentary
• Excellent 2020 results from changes in driving patterns.
• Premium growth and underwriting results will return to normal.
Watch for: Interest remains high in telematics; will post-
pandemic stay-at-homes drive more near home?
33
Trucks and Cars Getting More Expensive
But BEA reporting that prices are up only 2.4%!
34
While Repair Costs Increase Even More
But BEA reporting that prices are up only 2.1%!
35
Workers’ Compensation
89%
94% 93% 94%
-9%
3% 3%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 E 2021 F 2022 F
Premium
Growth
Combined
Ratio
Combined Ratio DWP Growth NWP Growth
-9.7%
-12%
-9%
-6%
-3%
0%
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
%
Chg
from
Yr
Prior
1.35%
-6%
-3%
0%
3%
6%
2016:Q1
2016:Q2
2016:Q3
2016:Q4
2017:Q1
2017:Q2
2017:Q3
2017:Q4
2018:Q1
2018:Q2
2018:Q3
2018:Q4
2019:Q1
2019:Q2
2019:Q3
2019:Q4
2020:Q1
2020:Q2
2020:Q3
2020:Q4
%
Chg
from
Yr
Prior
Data sources: NAIC data sourced through S&P Global Market Intelligence, MarketScout, Blue Chip Economic Indicators, Congressional Budget Office, PCS, Aon, Munich Re, Energy
Information Agency, FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).
Analysis: Insurance Information Institute, Milliman.
2020/2021 Commentary
• Through Q4, 2020 results were similar to 2019.
• WC exposures usually recover from recession more slowly than other lines.
• Exposures further depressed by the stay-at-homes who stay at home post
pandemic.
Watch for:
Expansion of presumptive claims; long-haul COVID cases. How will the
variant coronavirus affect the return to work?
Rate Changes
Employee Compensation
Calendar Year Written Premium and Net Combined Ratio Projections
36
U.S. Cyber Liability Insurance Renewal Rate
Source: Marsh, Global Insurance Market Index, May 2021
Cyber rates up 35% in Q1 2021, double the increase in Q4 2020 and largest increase since 2015.
! Not not all cyber
risks are insurable by
the private sector !
37
38
Triple-I’s Insurance Economics Outlook and Dashboard
economics.iii.org
39
Insurance and ESG
Insurers’ ESG Focus At A Glance
Driving Resilience Giving Back Sharing Insights
y From “recovery and repair” to “predict
and prevent”
y Risk partners and financial first
responders for families, businesses,
and communities
y Sophisticated hazard modeling and
data-driven loss control support
informed risk taking
COVID:
y U.S. auto insurers returned over $14
billion to customers in response to
reduced driving during COVID-19
pandemic
y Insurers have pledged more than
$280 million in donations to
organizations fighting the pandemic
Nonprofits driving understanding of
insurance for diverse audiences:
y Griffith Foundation
y Insurance Information Institute
y Insurance Institute for Business and
Home Safety
y Insurance Research Council
y National Association of Insurance
Commissioners
y Society of Insurance Research
41
How Insurance Drives Economic Growth
Safety/
Security
Insurers are
financial first
responders
Economic/
Financial Stability
Development
Insurers
are risk
mitigators
Insurers
are capital
protectors
Insurers
are credit
facilitators
Insurance
sustains the
supply chain
Insurance
is a partner in
social policy
Insurers
are capital
infusers
Insurers are
community
builders
Insurance
enables
infrastructure
improvements
Insurers are
innovation
catalysts
1
2
3
5
4
6
7
9
8
10
42
ESG: Is In Insurers’ DNA
43
FAIR and COVID-19
COVID-19 Market Challenge An Industry Campaign
y The Future of American Insurance & Reinsurance
(FAIR) campaign launched in May and has served as a
source of education surrounding pivotal industry activity,
including Congressional hearings, White House
roundtables, state legislation, and media stories.
y With a separate website, valuable explanatory assets,
stakeholder outreach, and digital promotions, this
integrated campaign provides the Triple-I with a
separate platform and voice to present information in a
digestible, influential manner to key audiences.
y The campaign takes on overarching industry issues (i.e.
business interruption) and emphasizes its essential role
in supporting and rebuilding communities in these
uncertain times.
www.fairinsure.org
45
A better place: FAIR guiding principles:
A defined perspective on potential policy solutions
Proposed solutions must:
y Maintain the federal government as a primary provider of relief, reflecting the reality that pandemic risks
are not privately insurable.
y Provide widely accessible relief payments to businesses in a fast and efficient manner once a pandemic is
declared by the government, with minimal chance of abuse.
y Protect businesses from losses, and incentivize businesses to retain employees, without jeopardizing
insurers' existing commitments.
Given their universal scope, pandemics are largely uninsurable. Therefore, only the
government has the financial capacity to provide the relief small and large businesses
need to weather this crisis.
46
Policy wording: Insurers minimized risk
Insurers understood threat of pandemics well before most
Who Is Suing?
Insurer Defenses
Cumulative Filings
1542
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
23-Mar
6-Apr
20-Apr
4-May
18-May
1-Jun
15-Jun
29-Jun
13-Jul
27-Jul
10-Aug
24-Aug
7-Sep
21-Sep
5-Oct
19-Oct
2-Nov
16-Nov
30-Nov
14-Dec
28-Dec
11-Jan
25-Jan
8-Feb
22-Feb
Industry
“Pressure Point”
89
95
197
564
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Accommodation
Personal & Laundry
Ambulatory Health Care
Food & Drinking Places
y No physical damage
y Exclusion for loss due to virus or bacteria
(2006)
Source: COVID Coverage Litigation Tracker, cclt.law.upenn.edu
47
FAIR Campaign Educated Media and Created Positive
Media Coverage for Insurers
Source: Meltwater.
• Through education and outreach to reporters, FAIR has been able to better contain spikes in negative coverage on
pandemic-related business interruption lawsuits
• FAIR campaign also prompted a steady stream of content highlighting favorable court rulings for insurers and
advocating for government-led solutions to pandemic insurance
• Given the decrease in BI coverage volume, FAIR will transition to other emerging industry issues in 2021
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
7/23-
7/29
9/10-
9/16
8/6-
8/12
7/30
-8/5
8/27
-9/2
8/13-
8/19
8/20-
8/26
9/3-
9/9
9/17-
9/23
9/24-
9/30
10/1-
10/7
10/8-
10/14
10/15-
10/21
10/22-
10/28
10/29
-11/4
11/5-
11/11
11/12-
11/18
12/3-
12/9
11/19-
11/25
11/26
-12/2
12/10-
12/16
Number Of Stories
BI Lawsuit Coverage Referencing
States With Favorable Rulings
BI Lawsuit Coverage Overall
48
An initiative of the
50
50
Drive behavioral change to help people
and communities better manage risk and
become more resilient
Objective
Create a resilience movement giving
households and communities a stake in risk
mitigation
Educate and empower stakeholders about
protection gaps and their impact on their
recovery
Fast-track the use of cost-effective tools to
drive risk mitigation, transfer and retention
Strategies
50
41
38
80
111
51
24
67
1980s:$5 B
1990s: $15 B
2000s: $25 B 2010s: $35 B
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
$
Billions,
2019
Average for Decade
Hurricane
Andrew
Harvey, Irma, Maria
Insured Cat Losses Are Increasing At An Alarming Rate –Nearly 700% Since 80’s
WTC
Katrina, Rita, Wilma
Inflation-Adjusted Insured Cat Losses
51
GDP and Population Adjusted Insured Cat Losses
Average multipliers: From Inflation at 2.6 times to GDP growth at 7.7 times original loss!
Insured Property
Loss ($ in
Year Name States Impacted Year of Storm Multiple
Inflation
(Country) Multiple
GDP
(States) Multiple
Population
(States)
1965 Hurricane Betsy FL, LA, MS, AL, AR, TN, KY, IL 525 8.2 4,322 40 21,000 2.0 1,050
1979 Hurricane Frederic FL, AL, MS, TN, KY, OH, PA, NY, NH, VT, ME, NJ, MA
800 3.4 2,728 8.0 6,400 1.0 800
1992 Hurricane Andrew FL, LA 15,670 1.8 28,877 4.0 62,680 1.0 15,670
2001 Tropical Storm Allison LA, TX, MS, NC, SC, GA 3,650 1.5 5,395 2.0 7,300 1.0 3,650
2005 Hurricane Katrina AL, FL, GA, LA, MS, TN 65,000 1.3 86,042 2.0 130,000 1.0 65,000
2017 Hurricane Harvey TX, LA, MS, AL, FL, TN 30,000 1.1 31,755 1.0 30,000 1.0 30,000
2017 Hurricane Irma FL, GA, SC, NC, GA, AL, TN 19,500 1.1 20,641 1.0 19,500 1.0 19,500
2020 Hurricane Laura TX, LA, AR, MO, IL, KY, IN 18,200 1.0 18,247 1.0 18,200 1.0 18,200
U.S. Named Storms 1963 to 2020 Insured Property Loss: Adjusted to 2020 ($ in Millions)
52
53
resilience.iiii.org
53
Final Thoughts
Thank you!
www.iii.org
Informed. Empowered.

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Insurance, Politics, and Economics in a Post- Pandemic World

  • 1. Insurance, Politics, and Economics in a Post- Pandemic World Insurance Information Institute w 110 William Street w New York, NY 10038 michell@iii.org w 646.498.9607 w www.iii.org Prepared for NAMIC’s 2021 Commercial and Personal Lines Seminar | Chicago, July 21, 2021 Dr. Michel Leonard, CBE, Senior Economist and Vice President
  • 2. Triple-I and Its Mission 2 A world with MORE insurance We are the trusted source of unique, data-driven insights on insurance… ……to inform and empower consumers. 2
  • 3. Insurance & Economic Leadership 1AM Best and FDIC; 2PC 360, Insurance Industry Crisis; 3U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2020; 4U.S. Department of Commerce, 2020; 5Federal Reserve, 2019; 62011–2014, Insurance Industry Charitable Foundation – amount donated so far to fight Covid-19. $630B 3.0% US GDP3 Premium Taxes Paid4 $23.6B Muni Bond Investment5 $500B Charity/Volunteerism6 $280M 2.8M Employed Need to Fill 400K+ by 20222 2010 Bank Failures: 157 Insurance Impairments1: 4 Policyholder Surplus: ~$914B Economic Growth Promoter/Facilitator Strong Jobs Pool/ Provider Sustainable Business Model End Q4/20 3
  • 4. Economic Drivers of Insurance Industry Performance
  • 5. Economic Outlook and Recovery: Two Competing Views The Market View Exponential growth in 2021 and slower growth in 2022 The Fed View Some growth in 2021 and continued growth in 2022 The Fed View: Better for the Insurance Industry 5
  • 6. The Fed: All About Employment Q1: 6.3% (BLS) Aug: 6% (BLS) Fed Goal: 4-5% 6
  • 7. Markets: All About Inflation Markets: Could reach as high as 8% in 2021 Fed: Currently forecasted to reach 2.4% by year end 7
  • 8. Inflation Trends & Forecasts Awaiting Q2 results to revise our forecast. Likely accelerating price increases. Fed raising forecast from 1.7% to 2.4%. Inflation remains “transitionary.” 8
  • 9. Runaway Inflation: The Meaning of “Transitionary” All inflation is local: significant differences across categories YoY Change (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Poultry 6.1 4.8 4.4 0.7 0.4 1.2 Housing 1.8 1.8 2.1 2.6 2.9 3.1 Lumber 57.4 59.8 65.3 89.7 114.3 97.5 Motor Vehicles Parts 1.0 1.6 1.6 2.3 2.4 2.1 9
  • 10. GDP Outlook and Forecasts BEA raised GDP forecast from 3.3% to 5.0% Awaiting Q2 results to revise our forecast. Likely accelerating price increases. GDP Growth’s Math: 0% < 3%: Back to Q4 2019 Output 3% < 5%: Back to Q4 2020 Output estimates pre-COVID 5% < 7%: Back to Q2 2021 Output estimates pre-COVID 7% < : Real above 5-year average 2021 growth 10
  • 11. “Don’t Fight the Fed” Central banks allowing inflation above interest rates is a tacit admission that the only way for governments and individuals to meet the debt burden is through inflation. This is about managed debt deflation – with central banks aiming to redistribute the historical wealth transition from Baby Boomers to Millennials to reduce the debt burden to sustainable levels. 11
  • 12. Threats to Recovery Catastrophes COVID Economics Geopolitical Social Unrest Technology 12
  • 13. Political and Economic Threats to Recovery 13
  • 14. COVID-19 and Variants Threat to Recovery Continued COVID-19 increases abroad pose ongoing risks to supply chains – especially for those commodities and products causing “transitionary” inflation 14
  • 16. Fairness & Equality A New Milestone for Measuring Success Capital Protections Community Well-being Economic Growth Resilience 16
  • 17. Slow And Steady Wins The Race… 17
  • 18. Insurance NPW Still Outperforming Wider Economy U.S. Economic Drivers U.S. Premium Growth 18 NPW above GDP + Inflation
  • 19. Net Premium Written Growth: 2010-2020 Yearly (all P/C lines) Sources: NAIC data sourced through S&P Global Intelligence; Insurance Information Institute. 0.7% 3.7% 4.3% 4.5% 4.3% 3.5% 2.6% 4.6% 10.7% 3.4% 0.8% 0.0% 2.5% 5.0% 7.5% 10.0% 12.5% 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Premium Growth: Neutral 19 Outperformed wider economy by app. 2%
  • 20. Combined Ratio: 2001-2020 Yearly (all P/C lines) 116.0 107.3 100.2 98.5 100.9 92.4 95.6 105.1 100.4 102.5 108.3 103.2 96.3 97.2 98.0 100.8 103.9 99.3 99.0 98.7 90 100 110 120 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Hurricanes, Wildfires Drive CR Higher. Heavy Use of Reinsurance Lowered Net Losses. Best Combined Ratio Since 1949 (87.6) Higher CAT Losses, Shrinking Reserve Releases, Toll of Soft Market Sandy 3 Consecutive Years of U/W Profits; 2nd time since 1971-73 Combined Ratio: Positive 20
  • 21. Policyholder Surplus: 2007-2020 Quarterly Sources: NAIC data sourced through S&P Global Intelligence; Insurance Information Institute. $400 $500 $600 $700 $800 $900 07:Q3 07:Q4 08:Q1 08:Q2 08:Q3 08:Q4 09:Q1 09:Q2 09:Q3 09:Q4 10:Q1 10:Q2 10:Q3 10:Q4 11:Q1 11:Q2 11:Q3 11:Q4 12:Q1 12:Q2 12:Q3 12:Q4 13:Q1 13:Q2 13:Q3 13:Q4 14:Q1 14:Q2 14:Q3 14:Q4 15:Q1 15:Q2 15:Q3 15:Q4 16:Q1 16:Q2 16:Q3 16:Q4 17:Q1 17:Q2 17:Q3 17:Q4 18:Q1 18:Q2 18:Q3 18:Q4 19:Q1 19:Q2 19:Q3 19:Q4 20:Q1 20:Q2 20:Q3 20:Q4 2007:Q3 Pre-Crisis Peak Drop in 2011 due to very large CAT losses Surplus at end of 2020 stood at $914.3B, an all-time high Drop in 2018 due to unrealized investment losses Policyholder Surplus: Positive $ Billions 21
  • 22. Key Sources of P/C Insurer Profits Through fourth quarter. Not adjusted for inflation. Data are before taxes and exclude extraordinary items. Source: NAIC data, sourced from S&P Global Market Intelligence. $55.9 $58.5 $58.9 $67.7 $66.7 $58.8 $55.9 $69.3 $67.7 $67.3 $63.0 -8.3 -35.3 -13.9 17.5 14.2 11.2 -2.4 -20.8 2.6 7.8 11.6 -$50 -$40 -$30 -$20 -$10 $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Net investment gains Underwriting gains/losses $ Billions Lower investment income means UW income has to grow. 22
  • 23. 4.5 4.2 3.9 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.4 3.6 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.4 3.1 2.7 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Net Yield on Invested Assets Sources: NAIC data, sourced from S&P Global Market Intelligence.. Long-term decline in rates likely to shift starting Q1 2022 Triple-I’s view, inline with Fed Watchers’ consensus, is for the Fed to start raising rates in 2022 but not in 2021. 23
  • 24. Rising Rates and Inflation: Historical Perspective Threat to real returns on key insurance portfolio investment classes 24
  • 25. $37.2 $20.1 $38.4 $71.6 $64.8 $58.3 $44.3 $40.6 $60.8 $63.1 $60.1 $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Net Income After Taxes: 2010-2020 Yearly Sources: NAIC data sourced through S&P Global Intelligence; Insurance Information Institute. Net Income After Tax: Positive Billions 25
  • 26. Agency Mergers & Acquisitions, 2018 – 2020 Sources: Independent Insurance Agents of America (Big I), 2020 Agency Universe Report. 50% 28% 27% 15% 9% 5% 12% 33% 30% 21% 13% 4% 3% 10% Jumbo Large Medium- Large Medium Medium- Small Small Total 24% 12% 9% 3% 4% 2% 4% 19% 9% 6% 10% 3% 3% 5% 55% 41% 39% 29% 29% 26% 29% 39% 48% 32% 35% 31% 33% 31% 2020 2018 One in ten agencies have been involved in acquisitions or mergers within the past two years. M&A activity is widespread among medium-large, large and jumbo agencies. Done In Past Two Years Currently in Process Planning for Next Two Years 26
  • 28. Industry Outlook Data sources: NAIC data sourced through S&P Global Market Intelligence, MarketScout, Blue Chip Economic Indicators, Congressional Budget Office, PCS, Aon, Munich Re, Energy Information Agency, FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis). Analysis: Insurance Information Institute, Milliman. 99% 99% 99% 99% 2% 6% 6% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 94% 96% 98% 100% 102% 104% 106% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 E 2021 F 2022 F Premium Growth Combined Ratio Combined Ratio DWP Growth NWP Growth 7.1% -20% -10% 0% 10% 2004:Q2 2005:Q1 2005:Q4 2006:Q3 2007:Q2 2008:Q1 2008:Q4 2009:Q3 2010:Q2 2011:Q1 2011:Q4 2012:Q3 2013:Q2 2014:Q1 2014:Q4 2015:Q3 2016:Q2 2017:Q1 2017:Q4 2018:Q3 2019:Q2 2020:Q1 2020:Q4 % Chg from Yr Prior -2.3% 6.0% 5.4% -3% 0% 3% 6% 9% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021F 2022F % Chg from Yr Prior 2021 Commentary Healthy premium growth this year thanks to recovery and hard market • Interest rates will tighten though slowly, pressuring rates and the need for underwriting profits. • Uncertainty from COVID will continue to put pressure on rates. • This assumes average year for cats (but won’t be!) Commercial Lines Rate Change Growth in Nominal GDP (Real GDP + Inflation) Calendar Year Written Premium and Net Combined Ratio Projections 28
  • 29. Commercial Property 9% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 2009:Q2 2009:Q4 2010:Q2 2010:Q4 2011:Q2 2011:Q4 2012:Q2 2012:Q4 2013:Q2 2013:Q4 2014:Q2 2014:Q4 2015:Q2 2015:Q4 2016:Q2 2016:Q4 2017:Q2 2017:Q4 2018:Q2 2018:Q4 2019:Q2 2019:Q4 2020:Q2 2020:Q4 % Chg from Yr Prior -3% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 2009:Q3 2010:Q1 2010:Q3 2011:Q1 2011:Q3 2012:Q1 2012:Q3 2013:Q1 2013:Q3 2014:Q1 2014:Q3 2015:Q1 2015:Q3 2016:Q1 2016:Q3 2017:Q1 2017:Q3 2018:Q1 2018:Q3 2019:Q1 2019:Q3 2020:Q1 2020:Q3 % Chg from Yr Prior 94% 102% 87% 88% 7% 6% 6% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 0% 50% 100% 150% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 E 2021 F 2022 F Premium Growth Combined Ratio Combined Ratio DWP Growth NWP Growth Commercial Property Rate Change Commercial Real Estate Prices for the US Calendar Year Written Premium and Net Combined Ratio Projections 2020/2021 Commentary • Not just hurricanes – wildfires, derechos, tornadoes made it a record for number of cat events. • Hard market brightens results – if cats stay calm but not expected to! Watch for: Vacancies could slowly rise as businesses adjust their need for space in the new flexible workplace. Data sources: NAIC data sourced through S&P Global Market Intelligence, MarketScout, Blue Chip Economic Indicators, Congressional Budget Office, PCS, Aon, Munich Re, Energy Information Agency, FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis). Analysis: Insurance Information Institute, Milliman. 29
  • 30. Homeowners Data sources: NAIC data sourced through S&P Global Market Intelligence, MarketScout, Blue Chip Economic Indicators, Congressional Budget Office, PCS, Aon, Munich Re, Energy Information Agency, FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis). Analysis: Insurance Information Institute, Milliman. 99% 104% 100% 100% 5% 5% 5% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% 105% 110% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 E 2021 F 2022 F Premium Growth Combined Ratio Combined Ratio DWP Growth NWP Growth 1.3 -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 2017:Apr 2017:Jun 2017:Aug 2017:Oct 2017:Dec 2018:Feb 2018:Apr 2018:Jun 2018:Aug 2018:Oct 2018:Dec 2019:Feb 2019:Apr 2019:Jun 2019:Aug 2019:Oct 2019:Dec 2020:Feb 2020:Apr 2020:Jun 2020:Aug 2020:Oct 2020:Dec 2021:Feb % Chg from Yr Prior 1,421 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2019:Jun 2019:Jul 2019:Aug 2019:Sep 2019:Oct 2019:Nov 2019:Dec 2020:Jan 2020:Feb 2020:Mar 2020:Apr 2020:May 2020:Jun 2020:July 2020:Aug 2020:Sep 2020:Oct 2020:Nov 2020:Dec 2021:Jan 2021:Feb 2020/2021 Commentary • Minimal impact from pandemic, recession • Multiple small- to medium-sized cats hurt 2020 results Watch for: Above-average hurricane season PPI for Homeowners Insurance Thousands of New Privately-Owned Housing Units Calendar Year Written Premium and Net Combined Ratio Projections 30
  • 31. Hard Commodity Prices Driving Property Replacement Costs March: $10.95: Now down 60% Dec 2019: $2.95 Still up 45% 31
  • 32. Commercial Auto 8.3% -4% 0% 4% 8% 12% 2009:Q4 2010:Q2 2010:Q4 2011:Q2 2011:Q4 2012:Q2 2012:Q4 2013:Q2 2013:Q4 2014:Q2 2014:Q4 2015:Q2 2015:Q4 2016:Q2 2016:Q4 2017:Q2 2017:Q4 2018:Q2 2018:Q4 2019:Q2 2019:Q4 2020:Q2 2020:Q4 % Chg from Yr Prior -25% -15% -5% 5% 15% Sep 6 2019 Oct 4 Nov 1 Nov 29 Dec 27 Jan 24 2020 Feb 21 Mar 20 Apr 17 May 15 Jun 12 Jul 10 Aug 7 Sept 4 October 2 Oct 30 Nov 27 Dec 25 Jan 22 Feb 19 % Chg from Yr Prior 109% 105% 107% 106% 2% 11% 11% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 100% 102% 104% 106% 108% 110% 112% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 E 2021 F 2022 F Premium Growth Combined Ratio Combined Ratio DWP Growth NWP Growth 2020/2021 Commentary • Line was hard-hit by fall in exposures but will bounce back in 2021. Watch for: Was 2020 end-of-year trends a fluke? 6.4% Commercial Auto Rate Changes 4 Week Moving Average US Distillate Fuel Oil (Diesel) Supplied Calendar Year Written Premium and Net Combined Ratio Projections Data sources: NAIC data sourced through S&P Global Market Intelligence, MarketScout, Blue Chip Economic Indicators, Congressional Budget Office, PCS, Aon, Munich Re, Energy Information Agency, FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis). Analysis: Insurance Information Institute, Milliman. 32
  • 33. Personal Auto 99% 92% 100% 100% -1% 5% 4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 85% 90% 95% 100% 105% 110% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 E 2021 F 2022 F Premium Growth Combined Ratio Combined Ratio DWP Growth NWP Growth YTD Vehicle Miles Traveled Through December Total Vehicle Sales Calendar Year Written Premium and Net Combined Ratio Projections -4% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 2015:Q1 2015:Q2 2015:Q3 2015:Q4 2016:Q1 2016:Q2 2016:Q3 2016:Q4 2017:Q1 2017:Q2 2017:Q3 2017:Q4 2018:Q1 2018:Q2 2018:Q3 2018:Q4 2019:Q1 2019:Q2 2019:Q3 2019:Q4 2020:Q1 2020:Q2 2020:Q3 2020:Q4 % Chg from Yr Prior 13% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 % Chg from Yr Prior Data sources: NAIC data sourced through S&P Global Market Intelligence, MarketScout, Blue Chip Economic Indicators, Congressional Budget Office, PCS, Aon, Munich Re, Energy Information Agency, FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis). Analysis: Insurance Information Institute, Milliman. 2020/2021 Commentary • Excellent 2020 results from changes in driving patterns. • Premium growth and underwriting results will return to normal. Watch for: Interest remains high in telematics; will post- pandemic stay-at-homes drive more near home? 33
  • 34. Trucks and Cars Getting More Expensive But BEA reporting that prices are up only 2.4%! 34
  • 35. While Repair Costs Increase Even More But BEA reporting that prices are up only 2.1%! 35
  • 36. Workers’ Compensation 89% 94% 93% 94% -9% 3% 3% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 E 2021 F 2022 F Premium Growth Combined Ratio Combined Ratio DWP Growth NWP Growth -9.7% -12% -9% -6% -3% 0% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 % Chg from Yr Prior 1.35% -6% -3% 0% 3% 6% 2016:Q1 2016:Q2 2016:Q3 2016:Q4 2017:Q1 2017:Q2 2017:Q3 2017:Q4 2018:Q1 2018:Q2 2018:Q3 2018:Q4 2019:Q1 2019:Q2 2019:Q3 2019:Q4 2020:Q1 2020:Q2 2020:Q3 2020:Q4 % Chg from Yr Prior Data sources: NAIC data sourced through S&P Global Market Intelligence, MarketScout, Blue Chip Economic Indicators, Congressional Budget Office, PCS, Aon, Munich Re, Energy Information Agency, FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis). Analysis: Insurance Information Institute, Milliman. 2020/2021 Commentary • Through Q4, 2020 results were similar to 2019. • WC exposures usually recover from recession more slowly than other lines. • Exposures further depressed by the stay-at-homes who stay at home post pandemic. Watch for: Expansion of presumptive claims; long-haul COVID cases. How will the variant coronavirus affect the return to work? Rate Changes Employee Compensation Calendar Year Written Premium and Net Combined Ratio Projections 36
  • 37. U.S. Cyber Liability Insurance Renewal Rate Source: Marsh, Global Insurance Market Index, May 2021 Cyber rates up 35% in Q1 2021, double the increase in Q4 2020 and largest increase since 2015. ! Not not all cyber risks are insurable by the private sector ! 37
  • 38. 38
  • 39. Triple-I’s Insurance Economics Outlook and Dashboard economics.iii.org 39
  • 41. Insurers’ ESG Focus At A Glance Driving Resilience Giving Back Sharing Insights y From “recovery and repair” to “predict and prevent” y Risk partners and financial first responders for families, businesses, and communities y Sophisticated hazard modeling and data-driven loss control support informed risk taking COVID: y U.S. auto insurers returned over $14 billion to customers in response to reduced driving during COVID-19 pandemic y Insurers have pledged more than $280 million in donations to organizations fighting the pandemic Nonprofits driving understanding of insurance for diverse audiences: y Griffith Foundation y Insurance Information Institute y Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety y Insurance Research Council y National Association of Insurance Commissioners y Society of Insurance Research 41
  • 42. How Insurance Drives Economic Growth Safety/ Security Insurers are financial first responders Economic/ Financial Stability Development Insurers are risk mitigators Insurers are capital protectors Insurers are credit facilitators Insurance sustains the supply chain Insurance is a partner in social policy Insurers are capital infusers Insurers are community builders Insurance enables infrastructure improvements Insurers are innovation catalysts 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 9 8 10 42
  • 43. ESG: Is In Insurers’ DNA 43
  • 45. COVID-19 Market Challenge An Industry Campaign y The Future of American Insurance & Reinsurance (FAIR) campaign launched in May and has served as a source of education surrounding pivotal industry activity, including Congressional hearings, White House roundtables, state legislation, and media stories. y With a separate website, valuable explanatory assets, stakeholder outreach, and digital promotions, this integrated campaign provides the Triple-I with a separate platform and voice to present information in a digestible, influential manner to key audiences. y The campaign takes on overarching industry issues (i.e. business interruption) and emphasizes its essential role in supporting and rebuilding communities in these uncertain times. www.fairinsure.org 45
  • 46. A better place: FAIR guiding principles: A defined perspective on potential policy solutions Proposed solutions must: y Maintain the federal government as a primary provider of relief, reflecting the reality that pandemic risks are not privately insurable. y Provide widely accessible relief payments to businesses in a fast and efficient manner once a pandemic is declared by the government, with minimal chance of abuse. y Protect businesses from losses, and incentivize businesses to retain employees, without jeopardizing insurers' existing commitments. Given their universal scope, pandemics are largely uninsurable. Therefore, only the government has the financial capacity to provide the relief small and large businesses need to weather this crisis. 46
  • 47. Policy wording: Insurers minimized risk Insurers understood threat of pandemics well before most Who Is Suing? Insurer Defenses Cumulative Filings 1542 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 23-Mar 6-Apr 20-Apr 4-May 18-May 1-Jun 15-Jun 29-Jun 13-Jul 27-Jul 10-Aug 24-Aug 7-Sep 21-Sep 5-Oct 19-Oct 2-Nov 16-Nov 30-Nov 14-Dec 28-Dec 11-Jan 25-Jan 8-Feb 22-Feb Industry “Pressure Point” 89 95 197 564 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Accommodation Personal & Laundry Ambulatory Health Care Food & Drinking Places y No physical damage y Exclusion for loss due to virus or bacteria (2006) Source: COVID Coverage Litigation Tracker, cclt.law.upenn.edu 47
  • 48. FAIR Campaign Educated Media and Created Positive Media Coverage for Insurers Source: Meltwater. • Through education and outreach to reporters, FAIR has been able to better contain spikes in negative coverage on pandemic-related business interruption lawsuits • FAIR campaign also prompted a steady stream of content highlighting favorable court rulings for insurers and advocating for government-led solutions to pandemic insurance • Given the decrease in BI coverage volume, FAIR will transition to other emerging industry issues in 2021 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 7/23- 7/29 9/10- 9/16 8/6- 8/12 7/30 -8/5 8/27 -9/2 8/13- 8/19 8/20- 8/26 9/3- 9/9 9/17- 9/23 9/24- 9/30 10/1- 10/7 10/8- 10/14 10/15- 10/21 10/22- 10/28 10/29 -11/4 11/5- 11/11 11/12- 11/18 12/3- 12/9 11/19- 11/25 11/26 -12/2 12/10- 12/16 Number Of Stories BI Lawsuit Coverage Referencing States With Favorable Rulings BI Lawsuit Coverage Overall 48
  • 50. 50 50 Drive behavioral change to help people and communities better manage risk and become more resilient Objective Create a resilience movement giving households and communities a stake in risk mitigation Educate and empower stakeholders about protection gaps and their impact on their recovery Fast-track the use of cost-effective tools to drive risk mitigation, transfer and retention Strategies 50
  • 51. 41 38 80 111 51 24 67 1980s:$5 B 1990s: $15 B 2000s: $25 B 2010s: $35 B $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 $ Billions, 2019 Average for Decade Hurricane Andrew Harvey, Irma, Maria Insured Cat Losses Are Increasing At An Alarming Rate –Nearly 700% Since 80’s WTC Katrina, Rita, Wilma Inflation-Adjusted Insured Cat Losses 51
  • 52. GDP and Population Adjusted Insured Cat Losses Average multipliers: From Inflation at 2.6 times to GDP growth at 7.7 times original loss! Insured Property Loss ($ in Year Name States Impacted Year of Storm Multiple Inflation (Country) Multiple GDP (States) Multiple Population (States) 1965 Hurricane Betsy FL, LA, MS, AL, AR, TN, KY, IL 525 8.2 4,322 40 21,000 2.0 1,050 1979 Hurricane Frederic FL, AL, MS, TN, KY, OH, PA, NY, NH, VT, ME, NJ, MA 800 3.4 2,728 8.0 6,400 1.0 800 1992 Hurricane Andrew FL, LA 15,670 1.8 28,877 4.0 62,680 1.0 15,670 2001 Tropical Storm Allison LA, TX, MS, NC, SC, GA 3,650 1.5 5,395 2.0 7,300 1.0 3,650 2005 Hurricane Katrina AL, FL, GA, LA, MS, TN 65,000 1.3 86,042 2.0 130,000 1.0 65,000 2017 Hurricane Harvey TX, LA, MS, AL, FL, TN 30,000 1.1 31,755 1.0 30,000 1.0 30,000 2017 Hurricane Irma FL, GA, SC, NC, GA, AL, TN 19,500 1.1 20,641 1.0 19,500 1.0 19,500 2020 Hurricane Laura TX, LA, AR, MO, IL, KY, IN 18,200 1.0 18,247 1.0 18,200 1.0 18,200 U.S. Named Storms 1963 to 2020 Insured Property Loss: Adjusted to 2020 ($ in Millions) 52