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![Motivation
Bayes
Evaluating actions
Example
Conclusions
A broadly applicable approach to ecological modeling in
support of management
[E, θprocess, θdata |data] ∝
[data|θdata , Et ] [Et |θprocess , Et−1 ] [θprocess , θdata , E0 ]
data
Et
Et
Process
✓process ✓data
Parameters
1
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![Motivation
Bayes
Evaluating actions
Example
Conclusions
Posterior predictive distributions
State of Population (E or E’)
State of Ecological System (E or E')
[E |data] =
θ E [E |E , θdata , θprocess ] [E , θdata , θprocess |data] dE dθdata θprocess
Time
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![Motivation
Bayes
Evaluating actions
Example
Conclusions
Bayesian matrix model with multiple sources of data
Mark recapture
yϕ[t]
Serology
Ysero[t]
Ground
Aerial
classifications
classifications
yp.µ[t]
yratio.calf[t]
yp.σ[t]
yσ[t]
n[t]
p
A[t] n[t
Census
yn.obs[t]
yn.sd[t]
psight
asd , bsd
1]
r[t]
Removals
yr[t]
Removal
Removal
age, sex
serology
yr.age[t]
yr.sero[t]
rcomp[t]
rsero[t]
rinfect[t]
, fc , fn , fp , , s, v
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