The document provides a technical analysis and commentary on the Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Index and two stocks, MCGS and MERS. It summarizes recent price movements and indicators, and identifies potential resistance and support levels. For the QSE Index, it notes heavy selling pressure and suggests the possibility of a further dip. For MCGS, it expects a weak upward move subject to resistance being broken. For MERS, candlestick patterns suggest a reversal to the upside is possible if prior resistance is confirmed as support.

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Daily Technical Trader – Qatar
Wednesday, 26 November 2014
Stocks Covered Today Ticker Price Direction Tgt.
MCGS
133.50
Up
140.00
MERS
219.70
Up
224.00
QSE Index Price % Ch. Vol. (mn)
Last
13,423.83
-1.9
9.6
Resistance/Support (Daily) Levels 1st 2nd 3rd
Resistance
13,660
13,550
13,700
Support
13,450
13,240
12,900
QSE Index Commentary
Overview:
Heavy selling took place after coming shy off the expected 13,800 resistance level. Moreover, selling commenced till the end of the session. The index is near a very important support level around the 13,450. If the index maintains above it, then we are looking at another continuation of the range we previously had. This can be seen by the Index dropping below its 50SMA on the daily while it closed below all three SMAs on the 30-minute chart. The above mentioned indicates the possibility of a further dip or a continuation of the range at best.
Expected Target: 13,660
This is the first resistance facing the Index if the range scenario comes into play.
Suggested Stop-Loss: 13,400
QSE Index (Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
QE Summary Market Indicators 25 Nov 14 24 Nov 14 %Ch.
Value Traded (QR mn)
3,626.0
862.6
320.4
Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn)
731.3
742.4
-1.5
Volume (mn)
31.1
11.1
180.2
Number of Trans.
11,657
7,933
46.9
Companies Traded
43
41
4.9
Market Breadth
10:31
8:28
–
QE Indices Market Indices Close 1D% RSI
Total Return
20,021.52
-1.9
49.7
All Share Index
3,414.32
-1.7
51.2
Banks
3,424.81
-0.9
54.0
Industrials
4,378.87
-2.8
46.3
Transportation
2,379.41
-1.4
55.0
Real Estate
2,725.75
-1.3
49.2
Insurance
3,879.44
-4.2
46.0
Telecoms
1,457.53
-3.5
42.6
Consumer
7,701.74
-0.1
67.9
Al Rayan Islamic
4,556.14
-1.7
51.8
RSI 14 (Over Bought) Ticker Close 1D% RSI
RSI 14 (Over Sold) Ticker Close 1D% RSI
QSE Index (30Min)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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MCGS Price % Ch. Volume
Last
133.50
0.68
86,602
Resistance/Support Levels (QR) 1st 2nd 3rd
Resistance
135.00
136.00
142.00
Support
131.00
126.00
120.00
Commentary
Overview:
The name is in a sustained uptrend thus far. On both time frames, the price settled above all moving averages. The MACD is still bullish although on a weaker note as evidenced from the MACD on the daily frame. The RSI is near the neutral zone looking for more strength in the price. All the above suggests that a move to the upside is possible, but it could be a weak one.
Expected Target: QR140.00 – QR142.00
A break above the QR135.00 is needed and above the QR136.00 for the risk averse traders for a better confirmation on the price breakage, targeting the QR140.00.
Suggested Stop-Loss: QR131.00
A drop below QR131.00 could drag the price to QR126.00.
MCGS (Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research MCGS (Hourly)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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MERS Price % Ch. Volume
Last
219.70
-0.14
74,097
Resistance/Support Levels (QR) 1st 2nd 3rd
Resistance
221.00
225.00
229.00
Support
217.00
214.00
211.00
Commentary
Overview:
MERS dropped from its latest all-time-high peak by over 12%. The latest session ended with a doji candlestick. On top of that, the hourly chart shows a hammer candlestick. Both, the doji and the hammer, suggest indecision between traders. Indecision after a directional move is a sign of reversal to the opposite direction. The immediate previous direction was down for both time frames. Thus, the mentioned candlesticks expect to reverse the move to the upside. Price formation broke through a short-term downtrend line. Indicators, specifically on the hourly chart, are supporting the argument. The MACD is just below the zero line while the Histogram direction is up, suggesting the MACD could cross again above the zero line.
Expected Target: QR224.00 – QR225.00
The candle formation needs a confirmation of price breaking the QR221.00.
Suggested Stop-Loss: QR218.00
A drop below the level suggests a possible continuation of the correction to QR214.00 level.
MERS (Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research MERS (Hourly)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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Intra-day Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages* Support Levels Resistance Levels Ticker Close 3rd 2nd 1st Pivot 1st 2nd 3rd 50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA
QSE Index
13,423.83
13,201.72
13,328.99
13,407.62 13,534.89
13,662.16
13,740.79
13,868.06
13,730.04
13,273.09
12,635.70
Total Return
20,021.52
19,690.25
19,880.07
19,997.34 20,187.16
20,376.98
20,494.25
20,684.07
20,478.22
19,796.22
18,704.59
All Share
3,414.32
3,364.67
3,393.12
3,410.70 3,439.15
3,467.60
3,485.18
3,513.63
3,470.45
3,357.11
3,195.69
Al Rayan Islamic
4,556.14
4,494.20
4,529.69
4,551.62 4,587.11
4,622.60
4,644.53
4,680.02
4,661.11
4,483.63
4,096.10 Banks & Financials Services
MARK
49.00
48.07
48.60
48.93 49.47
50.00
50.33
50.87
54.98
54.21
48.32
CBQK
73.20
71.13
72.32
73.05 74.23
75.42
76.15
77.33
71.37
69.05
66.85
DHBK
58.50
56.30
57.56
58.34 59.60
60.86
61.64
62.90
60.06
59.23
61.27
QIBK
106.20
104.40
105.36
105.95 106.90
107.86
108.45
109.40
115.97
107.64
94.39
QIIK
85.70
84.97
85.35
85.58 85.97
86.35
86.58
86.97
88.56
85.96
81.50 Insurance
QATI
90.20
85.47
88.18
89.85 92.57
95.28
96.95
99.67
98.45
91.44
79.90 Consumer Goods & Services
MCGS
133.50
127.17
129.46
130.87 133.17
135.46
136.87
139.17
129.47
111.71
91.13 Industrials
IQCD
187.20
178.67
183.56
186.58 191.47
196.36
199.38
204.27
189.77
183.34
183.55
QEWS
191.00
188.73
190.03
190.83 192.13
193.43
194.23
195.53
187.81
186.50
181.17
GISS
111.20
105.73
108.64
110.43 113.33
116.24
118.03
120.93
120.98
111.94
95.19
QIGD
45.50
44.43
44.97
45.30 45.83
46.37
46.70
47.23
56.91
57.11
56.10 Real Estate
BRES
49.20
47.67
48.55
49.09 49.97
50.85
51.39
52.27
41.10
40.79
37.99
UDCD
27.80
27.23
27.42
27.54 27.73
27.92
28.04
28.23
28.81
27.53
25.13
ERES
18.53
18.10
18.26
18.36 18.52
18.68
18.78
18.94
19.50
20.59
21.27
MRDS
22.99
22.16
22.40
22.55 22.79
23.03
23.18
23.42
23.99
21.43
18.54 Telecommunication
ORDS
117.50
114.70
116.30
117.30 118.90
120.50
121.50
123.10
129.14
131.94
139.07
VFQS
18.00
17.49
17.75
17.91 18.17
18.43
18.59
18.85
21.16
20.27
17.20 Transportation
QGTS
23.90
23.58
23.76
23.88 24.06
24.24
24.36
24.54
24.32
23.80
22.91
QNNS
99.00
96.33
97.86
98.81 100.33
101.86
102.81
104.33
95.55
94.35
94.18
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price

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Definitions:
Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.
Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.
Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the security price to head lower.
SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative price direction and potential support/resistance levels.
Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.
Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head & shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.
Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.
Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.

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Contacts
Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian
Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509
saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa
Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC
Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025
sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar
Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS.