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Daily Technical Trader – Qatar
Monday, 16 March 2015
Stocks Covered Today
Ticker Price Target
SIIS 13.92 14.30
VFQS 17.46 16.95
QSE Index
Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)
Last 11,964.15 -1.0 4.7
Resistance/Support
Levels 1
st
2
nd
3
rd
Resistance 12,000 12,250 12,350
Support 11,800 11,700 11,500
QSE Index Commentary
Overview:
As expected, the Index experienced more
weakness and dropped just about 1%. It is
imperative to mention that the Index could
wobble around 12,000 because of the
tough support stemming from previous
tops. In addition the Index is also on the
lower side of the downtrend channel.
Expected Resistance Level: 12,250
Expected Support Level: 11,800
QSE Index (Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
QE Summary
Market Indicators 15 Mar 15 12 Mar 15 %Ch.
Value Traded (QR mn) 292.3 329.6 -11.3
Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 652.1 656.9 -0.7
Volume (mn) 7.4 6.8 8.2
Number of Trans. 4,710 5,128 -8.2
Companies Traded 39 41 -4.9
Market Breadth 6:30 15:20 –
QE Indices
Market Indices Close 1D% RSI
Total Return 18,351.85 -1.0 41.4
All Share Index 3,177.26 -0.8 42.8
Banks 3,227.24 -0.7 45.1
Industrials 3,935.90 -1.0 40.5
Transportation 2,484.65 -0.3 59.3
Real Estate 2,380.21 -1.7 42.9
Insurance 4,174.68 -0.2 64.4
Telecoms 1,356.39 -0.8 33.7
Consumer 7,133.84 -0.1 38.2
Al Rayan Islamic 4,332.36 -1.3 46.9
RSI 14 (Over Bought)
Ticker Close 1D% RSI
QGRI 77.90 0.0 75.0
QCFS 49.60 4.9 73.2
ZHCD 94.90 0.0 71.4
QNNS 109.00 -0.3 70.1
RSI 14 (Over Sold)
Ticker Close 1D% RSI
DBIS 39.00 -4.9 26.6
DHBK 52.20 -0.4 27.2
UDCD 22.63 -2.8 27.2
IQCD 142.50 -0.7 29.3
ORDS 107.80 -0.3 29.5
QSE Index (30min)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 2 of 6
SIIS
Price % Ch. Volume
Last 13.92 0.14 98,121
Resistance/Support
Levels (QR) 1
st
2
nd
3
rd
Resistance 14.00 14.30 14.50
Support 13.60 13.30 12.25
Commentary
Overview:
The name created a bullish Dragonfly Doji
candlestick. A bullish Dragonfly signifies
the change in traders’ psychology. More
buyers stepped in the last session,
buffering the selling forces. The technical
indicators on the hourly chart are turning
up, suggesting a bounce could be in the
making.
Expected Target Price: QR14.30 –
QR14.50
A break above QR14.00 is needed to
trigger a buy on the name.
Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR13.60
(Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
(Hourly)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 3 of 6
VFQS
Price % Ch. Volume
Last 17.46 -2.18 859,816
Resistance/Support
Levels (QR) 1
st
2
nd
3
rd
Resistance 17.55 18.30 19.50
Support 17.40 16.95 16.35
Commentary
Overview:
VFQS could be creating a failure swing
(price is making lower tops) which is a
bearish sign. On the hourly chart, price
created a Double Top formation, which is
a bearish formation also. Thus, we expect
more sellers to come in, if the price breaks
below the immediate support.
Expected Target Retreat: QR16.95 –
QR16.35
A break below the QR17.40 is needed to
trigger the sell recommendation.
(Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
(Hourly)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 4 of 6
Intraday Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages
Support Levels Resistance Levels
Ticker Close 3
rd
2
nd
1
st
Pivot 1
st
2
nd
3
rd
50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA
QSE Index 11,964.15 11,871.02 11,911.71 11,936.85 11,977.53 12,018.22 12,043.36 12,084.04 12,201.45 12,609.93 12,936.05
Total Return 18,351.85 18,209.00 18,271.41 18,309.97 18,372.37 18,434.78 18,473.34 18,535.74 18,347.10 18,881.97 19,330.81
All Share 3,177.26 3,151.47 3,162.22 3,168.86 3,179.60 3,190.35 3,196.99 3,207.73 3,161.93 3,234.07 3,293.65
Al Rayan Islamic 4,332.36 4,285.79 4,305.97 4,318.44 4,338.62 4,358.80 4,371.27 4,391.45 4,233.64 4,301.36 4,390.16
Banks & Financials Services
MARK 45.50 44.43 45.01 45.36 45.93 46.51 46.86 47.43 46.23 47.28 50.99
CBQK 69.50 68.57 68.87 69.06 69.37 69.67 69.86 70.17 68.39 69.73 69.25
DHBK 52.20 51.93 52.05 52.12 52.23 52.35 52.42 52.53 56.82 57.25 58.46
QIBK 99.90 98.97 99.39 99.65 100.07 100.49 100.75 101.17 104.73 105.16 105.90
QIIK 87.30 86.43 86.82 87.05 87.43 87.82 88.05 88.43 83.27 83.40 84.70
Insurance
QATI 76.00 75.00 75.57 75.93 76.50 77.07 77.43 78.00 77.13 78.49 78.25
Consumer Goods & Services
MCGS 150.00 149.87 149.90 149.93 149.97 150.00 150.03 150.07 135.18 128.90 118.72
Industrials
IQCD 142.50 139.90 140.70 141.20 142.00 142.80 143.30 144.10 152.17 168.95 176.04
QEWS 190.00 189.47 189.77 189.96 190.27 190.57 190.76 191.07 191.95 189.56 188.19
GISS 91.10 89.83 90.52 90.95 91.63 92.32 92.75 93.43 98.82 103.60 106.78
QIGD 41.05 40.42 40.78 41.00 41.37 41.73 41.95 42.32 40.94 42.90 50.65
Real Estate
BRES 48.80 47.80 48.16 48.39 48.75 49.11 49.34 49.70 46.12 45.65 43.20
UDCD 22.63 22.34 22.50 22.60 22.76 22.92 23.02 23.18 24.10 24.81 26.13
ERES 15.34 15.01 15.14 15.23 15.37 15.50 15.59 15.73 15.54 16.54 18.84
MRDS 18.91 18.64 18.75 18.82 18.93 19.04 19.11 19.22 19.71 20.67 20.88
Telecommunication
ORDS 107.80 106.53 106.95 107.21 107.63 108.05 108.31 108.73 115.19 117.23 125.62
VFQS 17.46 17.25 17.35 17.42 17.53 17.63 17.70 17.81 16.57 17.32 18.75
Transportation
QGTS 23.20 22.85 22.98 23.06 23.19 23.32 23.40 23.53 23.95 23.70 23.73
QNNS 109.00 105.47 106.57 107.26 108.37 109.47 110.16 111.27 102.08 99.99 97.07
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 5 of 6
Definitions:
Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening
and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is
lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they
compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.
Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.
Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the
security price to head lower.
SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus
considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative
price direction and potential support/resistance levels.
Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in
a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally
use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be
considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.
Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &
shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.
Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These
levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.
Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot
Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 6 of 6
Contacts
Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Badar Husain
Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Head of Trading
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6547
saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa badar.husain@qnbfs.com.qa
Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC
Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025
sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar
Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar
Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer,
promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or
indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We
therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that
QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy
and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or
contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the
views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included
in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS.

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16 March Daily technical trader

  • 1. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 1 of 6 Daily Technical Trader – Qatar Monday, 16 March 2015 Stocks Covered Today Ticker Price Target SIIS 13.92 14.30 VFQS 17.46 16.95 QSE Index Level % Ch. Vol. (mn) Last 11,964.15 -1.0 4.7 Resistance/Support Levels 1 st 2 nd 3 rd Resistance 12,000 12,250 12,350 Support 11,800 11,700 11,500 QSE Index Commentary Overview: As expected, the Index experienced more weakness and dropped just about 1%. It is imperative to mention that the Index could wobble around 12,000 because of the tough support stemming from previous tops. In addition the Index is also on the lower side of the downtrend channel. Expected Resistance Level: 12,250 Expected Support Level: 11,800 QSE Index (Daily) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research QE Summary Market Indicators 15 Mar 15 12 Mar 15 %Ch. Value Traded (QR mn) 292.3 329.6 -11.3 Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 652.1 656.9 -0.7 Volume (mn) 7.4 6.8 8.2 Number of Trans. 4,710 5,128 -8.2 Companies Traded 39 41 -4.9 Market Breadth 6:30 15:20 – QE Indices Market Indices Close 1D% RSI Total Return 18,351.85 -1.0 41.4 All Share Index 3,177.26 -0.8 42.8 Banks 3,227.24 -0.7 45.1 Industrials 3,935.90 -1.0 40.5 Transportation 2,484.65 -0.3 59.3 Real Estate 2,380.21 -1.7 42.9 Insurance 4,174.68 -0.2 64.4 Telecoms 1,356.39 -0.8 33.7 Consumer 7,133.84 -0.1 38.2 Al Rayan Islamic 4,332.36 -1.3 46.9 RSI 14 (Over Bought) Ticker Close 1D% RSI QGRI 77.90 0.0 75.0 QCFS 49.60 4.9 73.2 ZHCD 94.90 0.0 71.4 QNNS 109.00 -0.3 70.1 RSI 14 (Over Sold) Ticker Close 1D% RSI DBIS 39.00 -4.9 26.6 DHBK 52.20 -0.4 27.2 UDCD 22.63 -2.8 27.2 IQCD 142.50 -0.7 29.3 ORDS 107.80 -0.3 29.5 QSE Index (30min) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
  • 2. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 2 of 6 SIIS Price % Ch. Volume Last 13.92 0.14 98,121 Resistance/Support Levels (QR) 1 st 2 nd 3 rd Resistance 14.00 14.30 14.50 Support 13.60 13.30 12.25 Commentary Overview: The name created a bullish Dragonfly Doji candlestick. A bullish Dragonfly signifies the change in traders’ psychology. More buyers stepped in the last session, buffering the selling forces. The technical indicators on the hourly chart are turning up, suggesting a bounce could be in the making. Expected Target Price: QR14.30 – QR14.50 A break above QR14.00 is needed to trigger a buy on the name. Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR13.60 (Daily) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research (Hourly) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
  • 3. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 3 of 6 VFQS Price % Ch. Volume Last 17.46 -2.18 859,816 Resistance/Support Levels (QR) 1 st 2 nd 3 rd Resistance 17.55 18.30 19.50 Support 17.40 16.95 16.35 Commentary Overview: VFQS could be creating a failure swing (price is making lower tops) which is a bearish sign. On the hourly chart, price created a Double Top formation, which is a bearish formation also. Thus, we expect more sellers to come in, if the price breaks below the immediate support. Expected Target Retreat: QR16.95 – QR16.35 A break below the QR17.40 is needed to trigger the sell recommendation. (Daily) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research (Hourly) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
  • 4. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 4 of 6 Intraday Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels Ticker Close 3 rd 2 nd 1 st Pivot 1 st 2 nd 3 rd 50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA QSE Index 11,964.15 11,871.02 11,911.71 11,936.85 11,977.53 12,018.22 12,043.36 12,084.04 12,201.45 12,609.93 12,936.05 Total Return 18,351.85 18,209.00 18,271.41 18,309.97 18,372.37 18,434.78 18,473.34 18,535.74 18,347.10 18,881.97 19,330.81 All Share 3,177.26 3,151.47 3,162.22 3,168.86 3,179.60 3,190.35 3,196.99 3,207.73 3,161.93 3,234.07 3,293.65 Al Rayan Islamic 4,332.36 4,285.79 4,305.97 4,318.44 4,338.62 4,358.80 4,371.27 4,391.45 4,233.64 4,301.36 4,390.16 Banks & Financials Services MARK 45.50 44.43 45.01 45.36 45.93 46.51 46.86 47.43 46.23 47.28 50.99 CBQK 69.50 68.57 68.87 69.06 69.37 69.67 69.86 70.17 68.39 69.73 69.25 DHBK 52.20 51.93 52.05 52.12 52.23 52.35 52.42 52.53 56.82 57.25 58.46 QIBK 99.90 98.97 99.39 99.65 100.07 100.49 100.75 101.17 104.73 105.16 105.90 QIIK 87.30 86.43 86.82 87.05 87.43 87.82 88.05 88.43 83.27 83.40 84.70 Insurance QATI 76.00 75.00 75.57 75.93 76.50 77.07 77.43 78.00 77.13 78.49 78.25 Consumer Goods & Services MCGS 150.00 149.87 149.90 149.93 149.97 150.00 150.03 150.07 135.18 128.90 118.72 Industrials IQCD 142.50 139.90 140.70 141.20 142.00 142.80 143.30 144.10 152.17 168.95 176.04 QEWS 190.00 189.47 189.77 189.96 190.27 190.57 190.76 191.07 191.95 189.56 188.19 GISS 91.10 89.83 90.52 90.95 91.63 92.32 92.75 93.43 98.82 103.60 106.78 QIGD 41.05 40.42 40.78 41.00 41.37 41.73 41.95 42.32 40.94 42.90 50.65 Real Estate BRES 48.80 47.80 48.16 48.39 48.75 49.11 49.34 49.70 46.12 45.65 43.20 UDCD 22.63 22.34 22.50 22.60 22.76 22.92 23.02 23.18 24.10 24.81 26.13 ERES 15.34 15.01 15.14 15.23 15.37 15.50 15.59 15.73 15.54 16.54 18.84 MRDS 18.91 18.64 18.75 18.82 18.93 19.04 19.11 19.22 19.71 20.67 20.88 Telecommunication ORDS 107.80 106.53 106.95 107.21 107.63 108.05 108.31 108.73 115.19 117.23 125.62 VFQS 17.46 17.25 17.35 17.42 17.53 17.63 17.70 17.81 16.57 17.32 18.75 Transportation QGTS 23.20 22.85 22.98 23.06 23.19 23.32 23.40 23.53 23.95 23.70 23.73 QNNS 109.00 105.47 106.57 107.26 108.37 109.47 110.16 111.27 102.08 99.99 97.07 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price
  • 5. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 5 of 6 Definitions: Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices. Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher. Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the security price to head lower. SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative price direction and potential support/resistance levels. Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange. MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data. RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold. Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head & shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc. Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement. Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.
  • 6. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 6 of 6 Contacts Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Badar Husain Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Head of Trading Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6547 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa badar.husain@qnbfs.com.qa Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS.