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Daily Technical Trader – Qatar
Tuesday, 24 February 2015
Stocks Covered Today
Ticker Price Target
CBQK 68.40 69.50
MARK 48.75 49.80
QSE Index
Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)
Last 12,549.25 0.2 7.5
Resistance/Support
Levels 1
st
2
nd
3
rd
Resistance 12,600 12,800 12,900
Support 12,350 12,250 12,000
QSE Index Commentary
Overview:
The QSE Index stabilized above the
12,500 level for the third consecutive day.
This could be a sign of a very short-term
recovery. It is caused by the break above
the correction’s downtrend on the intraday
chart (denoted in red). The Index needs to
break above the shallow resistance level
of 12,600 to jump and test the 12,800
level. Otherwise, we expect range bound
trading in the days to come.
Expected Resistance Level: 12,800
Expected Support Level: 12,350
QSE Index (Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
QE Summary
Market Indicators 23 Feb 15 22 Feb 15 %Ch.
Value Traded (QR mn) 431.9 349.5 23.6
Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 680.6 679.2 0.2
Volume (mn) 7.6 9.3 -18.3
Number of Trans. 4,866 4,357 11.7
Companies Traded 41 39 5.1
Market Breadth 21:17 20:14 –
QE Indices
Market Indices Close 1D% RSI
Total Return 18,969.65 0.5 62.2
All Share Index 3,271.91 0.5 64.2
Banks 3,313.80 1.0 63.5
Industrials 4,029.04 -0.3 56.9
Transportation 2,432.00 0.0 58.3
Real Estate 2,530.07 0.2 61.2
Insurance 4,151.97 1.8 71.1
Telecoms 1,423.22 0.8 53.2
Consumer 7,568.41 0.1 72.1
Al Rayan Islamic 4,443.37 0.6 66.5
RSI 14 (Over Bought)
Ticker Close 1D% RSI
MCGS 152.50 3.7 79.6
QIIK 89.20 1.9 73.1
AHCS 18.49 -0.1 71.2
RSI 14 (Over Sold)
Ticker Close 1D% RSI
QSE Index (30min)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 2 of 7
CBQK
Price % Ch. Volume
Last 68.40 0.29 178,986
Resistance/Support
Levels (QR) 1
st
2
nd
3
rd
Resistance 68.40 69.50 70.00
Support 68.00 66.80 65.00
Commentary
Overview:
The bank has lost over 6% since its recent
peak (QR72.00). Since, then it has
recovered some of its losses in the last
session. This recovery formed a Hammer
candlestick. It is a bullish reversal
candlestick that needs to be confirmed.
The MACD is above the zero line, which
suggests the bullish attitude exists among
traders on the current move.
Expected Target Price: QR69.50 –
QR70.00
To confirm the Hammer candlestick, a
sustained break above QR68.40 is
needed.
Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR67.80
(Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
(Hourly)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 3 of 7
MARK
Price % Ch. Volume
Last 48.75 0.21 371,027
Resistance/Support
Levels (QR) 1
st
2
nd
3
rd
Resistance 49.00 49.80 50.80
Support 48.50 48.00 47.10
Commentary
Overview:
MARK’s price stabilized above QR48.00
and its 100SMA. In addition, the name is
hovering above the breakout from the
medium-term downtrend line. The MACD
is above the zero line and turning up
again. All the previous indicators imply a
positive attitude on the next expected
move.
Expected Target Price: QR49.80 –
QR50.80
A break above QR49.00 is needed to
trigger the buy recommendation.
Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR48.50
(Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
(Hourly)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 4 of 7
Intraday Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages
Support Levels Resistance Levels
Ticker Close 3
rd
2
nd
1
st
Pivot 1
st
2
nd
3
rd
50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA
QSE Index 12,549.25 12,428.04 12,463.56 12,485.50 12,521.02 12,556.54 12,578.48 12,614.00 12,127.82 12,773.79 12,983.08
Total Return 18,969.65 18,786.41 18,840.10 18,873.28 18,926.97 18,980.66 19,013.84 19,067.53 18,130.16 19,072.81 19,373.94
All Share 3,271.91 3,246.24 3,253.75 3,258.38 3,265.88 3,273.39 3,278.02 3,285.52 3,116.66 3,258.70 3,298.83
Al Rayan Islamic 4,443.37 4,403.99 4,416.83 4,424.77 4,437.61 4,450.45 4,458.39 4,471.23 4,119.85 4,321.66 4,382.41
Banks & Financials Services
MARK 48.75 48.25 48.44 48.56 48.75 48.94 49.06 49.25 45.67 48.19 51.16
CBQK 68.40 66.67 67.16 67.47 67.97 68.46 68.77 69.27 67.60 69.95 69.20
DHBK 58.30 57.90 58.01 58.09 58.20 58.31 58.39 58.50 56.68 57.58 59.08
QIBK 104.30 99.30 100.90 101.90 103.50 105.10 106.10 107.70 103.54 106.44 105.16
QIIK 89.20 86.20 87.23 87.87 88.90 89.93 90.57 91.60 81.30 83.49 84.71
Insurance
QATI 80.80 73.07 75.32 76.71 78.97 81.22 82.61 84.87 76.14 79.55 77.54
Consumer Goods & Services
MCGS 152.50 142.43 145.60 147.56 150.73 153.90 155.86 159.03 124.06 125.61 114.53
Industrials
IQCD 153.20 152.67 152.97 153.16 153.47 153.77 153.96 154.27 158.27 173.91 178.59
QEWS 192.10 190.70 191.46 191.94 192.70 193.46 193.94 194.70 189.89 189.11 187.91
GISS 95.60 94.87 95.29 95.55 95.97 96.39 96.65 97.07 97.29 106.77 106.80
QIGD 42.45 40.55 41.20 41.60 42.25 42.90 43.30 43.95 39.60 44.57 52.26
Real Estate
BRES 49.85 49.08 49.43 49.64 49.98 50.33 50.54 50.88 44.23 44.57 42.53
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 5 of 7
UDCD 24.00 23.63 23.77 23.85 23.98 24.12 24.20 24.33 23.82 25.37 26.25
ERES 16.85 16.62 16.71 16.77 16.87 16.96 17.02 17.12 15.25 17.06 19.63
MRDS 19.80 19.56 19.65 19.70 19.79 19.88 19.93 20.02 19.37 21.15 20.92
Telecommunication
ORDS 114.90 112.23 113.00 113.47 114.23 115.00 115.47 116.23 115.97 119.56 127.80
VFQS 17.50 17.19 17.31 17.38 17.50 17.62 17.69 17.81 15.99 17.69 18.79
Transportation
QGTS 24.20 23.83 24.01 24.11 24.28 24.46 24.56 24.73 23.36 23.64 23.76
QNNS 104.80 102.33 103.06 103.51 104.23 104.96 105.41 106.13 98.46 98.44 96.41
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price
Definitions:
Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening
and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is
lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they
compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.
Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.
Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the
security price to head lower.
SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus
considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative
price direction and potential support/resistance levels.
Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in
a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally
use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be
considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 6 of 7
Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &
shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.
Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These
levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.
Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot
Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.
Contacts
Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian
Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509
saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa
Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC
Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025
sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 7 of 7
Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar
Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer,
promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or
indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We
therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that
QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy
and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or
contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the
views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included
in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS.

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24 February Daily technical trader

  • 1. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 1 of 7 Daily Technical Trader – Qatar Tuesday, 24 February 2015 Stocks Covered Today Ticker Price Target CBQK 68.40 69.50 MARK 48.75 49.80 QSE Index Level % Ch. Vol. (mn) Last 12,549.25 0.2 7.5 Resistance/Support Levels 1 st 2 nd 3 rd Resistance 12,600 12,800 12,900 Support 12,350 12,250 12,000 QSE Index Commentary Overview: The QSE Index stabilized above the 12,500 level for the third consecutive day. This could be a sign of a very short-term recovery. It is caused by the break above the correction’s downtrend on the intraday chart (denoted in red). The Index needs to break above the shallow resistance level of 12,600 to jump and test the 12,800 level. Otherwise, we expect range bound trading in the days to come. Expected Resistance Level: 12,800 Expected Support Level: 12,350 QSE Index (Daily) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research QE Summary Market Indicators 23 Feb 15 22 Feb 15 %Ch. Value Traded (QR mn) 431.9 349.5 23.6 Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 680.6 679.2 0.2 Volume (mn) 7.6 9.3 -18.3 Number of Trans. 4,866 4,357 11.7 Companies Traded 41 39 5.1 Market Breadth 21:17 20:14 – QE Indices Market Indices Close 1D% RSI Total Return 18,969.65 0.5 62.2 All Share Index 3,271.91 0.5 64.2 Banks 3,313.80 1.0 63.5 Industrials 4,029.04 -0.3 56.9 Transportation 2,432.00 0.0 58.3 Real Estate 2,530.07 0.2 61.2 Insurance 4,151.97 1.8 71.1 Telecoms 1,423.22 0.8 53.2 Consumer 7,568.41 0.1 72.1 Al Rayan Islamic 4,443.37 0.6 66.5 RSI 14 (Over Bought) Ticker Close 1D% RSI MCGS 152.50 3.7 79.6 QIIK 89.20 1.9 73.1 AHCS 18.49 -0.1 71.2 RSI 14 (Over Sold) Ticker Close 1D% RSI QSE Index (30min) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
  • 2. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 2 of 7 CBQK Price % Ch. Volume Last 68.40 0.29 178,986 Resistance/Support Levels (QR) 1 st 2 nd 3 rd Resistance 68.40 69.50 70.00 Support 68.00 66.80 65.00 Commentary Overview: The bank has lost over 6% since its recent peak (QR72.00). Since, then it has recovered some of its losses in the last session. This recovery formed a Hammer candlestick. It is a bullish reversal candlestick that needs to be confirmed. The MACD is above the zero line, which suggests the bullish attitude exists among traders on the current move. Expected Target Price: QR69.50 – QR70.00 To confirm the Hammer candlestick, a sustained break above QR68.40 is needed. Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR67.80 (Daily) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research (Hourly) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
  • 3. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 3 of 7 MARK Price % Ch. Volume Last 48.75 0.21 371,027 Resistance/Support Levels (QR) 1 st 2 nd 3 rd Resistance 49.00 49.80 50.80 Support 48.50 48.00 47.10 Commentary Overview: MARK’s price stabilized above QR48.00 and its 100SMA. In addition, the name is hovering above the breakout from the medium-term downtrend line. The MACD is above the zero line and turning up again. All the previous indicators imply a positive attitude on the next expected move. Expected Target Price: QR49.80 – QR50.80 A break above QR49.00 is needed to trigger the buy recommendation. Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR48.50 (Daily) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research (Hourly) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
  • 4. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 4 of 7 Intraday Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels Ticker Close 3 rd 2 nd 1 st Pivot 1 st 2 nd 3 rd 50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA QSE Index 12,549.25 12,428.04 12,463.56 12,485.50 12,521.02 12,556.54 12,578.48 12,614.00 12,127.82 12,773.79 12,983.08 Total Return 18,969.65 18,786.41 18,840.10 18,873.28 18,926.97 18,980.66 19,013.84 19,067.53 18,130.16 19,072.81 19,373.94 All Share 3,271.91 3,246.24 3,253.75 3,258.38 3,265.88 3,273.39 3,278.02 3,285.52 3,116.66 3,258.70 3,298.83 Al Rayan Islamic 4,443.37 4,403.99 4,416.83 4,424.77 4,437.61 4,450.45 4,458.39 4,471.23 4,119.85 4,321.66 4,382.41 Banks & Financials Services MARK 48.75 48.25 48.44 48.56 48.75 48.94 49.06 49.25 45.67 48.19 51.16 CBQK 68.40 66.67 67.16 67.47 67.97 68.46 68.77 69.27 67.60 69.95 69.20 DHBK 58.30 57.90 58.01 58.09 58.20 58.31 58.39 58.50 56.68 57.58 59.08 QIBK 104.30 99.30 100.90 101.90 103.50 105.10 106.10 107.70 103.54 106.44 105.16 QIIK 89.20 86.20 87.23 87.87 88.90 89.93 90.57 91.60 81.30 83.49 84.71 Insurance QATI 80.80 73.07 75.32 76.71 78.97 81.22 82.61 84.87 76.14 79.55 77.54 Consumer Goods & Services MCGS 152.50 142.43 145.60 147.56 150.73 153.90 155.86 159.03 124.06 125.61 114.53 Industrials IQCD 153.20 152.67 152.97 153.16 153.47 153.77 153.96 154.27 158.27 173.91 178.59 QEWS 192.10 190.70 191.46 191.94 192.70 193.46 193.94 194.70 189.89 189.11 187.91 GISS 95.60 94.87 95.29 95.55 95.97 96.39 96.65 97.07 97.29 106.77 106.80 QIGD 42.45 40.55 41.20 41.60 42.25 42.90 43.30 43.95 39.60 44.57 52.26 Real Estate BRES 49.85 49.08 49.43 49.64 49.98 50.33 50.54 50.88 44.23 44.57 42.53
  • 5. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 5 of 7 UDCD 24.00 23.63 23.77 23.85 23.98 24.12 24.20 24.33 23.82 25.37 26.25 ERES 16.85 16.62 16.71 16.77 16.87 16.96 17.02 17.12 15.25 17.06 19.63 MRDS 19.80 19.56 19.65 19.70 19.79 19.88 19.93 20.02 19.37 21.15 20.92 Telecommunication ORDS 114.90 112.23 113.00 113.47 114.23 115.00 115.47 116.23 115.97 119.56 127.80 VFQS 17.50 17.19 17.31 17.38 17.50 17.62 17.69 17.81 15.99 17.69 18.79 Transportation QGTS 24.20 23.83 24.01 24.11 24.28 24.46 24.56 24.73 23.36 23.64 23.76 QNNS 104.80 102.33 103.06 103.51 104.23 104.96 105.41 106.13 98.46 98.44 96.41 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price Definitions: Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices. Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher. Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the security price to head lower. SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative price direction and potential support/resistance levels. Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange. MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data. RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.
  • 6. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 6 of 7 Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head & shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc. Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement. Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar
  • 7. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 7 of 7 Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS.