Slides for 2017 Rocky Mount & Twin Counties Economic Outlook, presented by Kenneth Hunter on January 31, 2017

1. Presented by Kenneth Hunter, MPA
Small Business Committee
Presented By
Kenneth Hunter, MPA
January 31, 2017

2. Sources for Information
Special Thank You!

3. Overview – Key Themes
The Metrics of Optimism
Pushing Beyond “New Normal”
Rocky Mount’s Resurgence
Predictions

4. The Metrics of Optimism

5. The National Picture
2016 Q4
(Annualized)
$16.805T

6. The National Picture
2016 Q4
(Annual Growth)
+1.9%

7. The National Picture
2016 Q4
(Annualized)
$51,823/capita (+1.2%)

8. Inflation – CPI

9. Inflation - CPI
December 2016
All Items: +2.1%
Less Food & Energy: +2.2%

10. Inflation - PPI
December 2016
+2.6%

11. Energy – Crude Oil
1-Month: Little Change
12-Month: +$8 (+18%)

12. Energy – Natural Gas
1-Month: -$0.15 (-4%)
12-Month: -$0.20 (-6%)

13. Energy – Gasoline
US Average
1-Month: Unchanged
12-Month: +$0.50 (+27%)

14. Energy – Electricity

15. Market Momentum Continues

16. Market Momentum Continues
1-Year Change: +18%

17. Strong Across Sectors
1-Year Change: +18%

18. Risk Muted, Volatility Not a Concern
1-Year Change: +18%

19. Treasuries Perking Up?
1-Year Change: +18%

20. Industrial Activity Stable (and Looking Up?)
1-Year Change: +18%

21. Business Inventories Remain High
1-Year Change: +18%

22. Export Growth Subsiding
1-Year Change: +18%

23. Trade Deficit Stable
1-Year Change: +18%

24. Pushing Beyond “New Normal”

25. 1.8 Million More Employed in 2016
1-Year Change: +18%

26. Many Opportunities Available, Nationally
1-Year Change: +18%

27. Wage “Recovery” Finally a Reality
1-Year Change: +18%

28. Still Too Many Not Working
1-Year Change: +18%

29. New Home Sales Up for 2016, but Interest Rates…
1-Year Change: +18%

30. Existing Home Sales Hurt by Low Inventories
1-Year Change: +18%

31. Starts Still Favor Multi-Family

32. Price Recovery in Hot Markets

33. Appreciation Once Again Strong

34. Rocky Mount’s Resurgence

35. Local Housing is Growing
Rocky Mount MLS 2013 2014 2015 2016 1-Year Change 3-Year Change
New Listings 1,641 1,571 1,566 1,452 -7.3% -11.5%
Average List 129,493$ 134,621$ 131,595$ 137,925$ 4.8% 6.5%
Total Sold 865 868 962 1,010 5.0% 16.8%
Average Sold Price 107,416$ 112,117$ 114,613$ 118,305$ 3.2% 10.1%
Average Days on Market 160 166 168 154 -8.3% -3.8%
Information courtesy Kathy Akers, Boone, Hill, Allen & Ricks Real Estate

36. Visible Local (Re)development

37. Local Employment Growth Continues
Rocky Mount MSA Since November '15 Since December '15 Since October '16
Change in Labor Force
Edgecombe -188 -0.80% 127 0.55% -205 -0.9%
Nash 194 0.44% 779 1.77% 374 0.8%
Rocky Mount MSA 6 0.01% 906 1.35% 169 0.2%
Change in Employment
Edgecombe 117 0.55% 347 1.64% 171 0.8%
Nash 462 1.11% 865 2.11% 355 0.9%
Rocky Mount MSA 579 0.92% 1212 1.95% 526 0.8%
Rocky Mount City Since November '15 Since December '15 Since October '16
Change in Labor Force
In Edgecombe -41 -0.64% 22 0.35% 14 0.2%
In Nash 68 0.38% 343 1.94% 111 0.6%
Citywide 27 0.11% 365 1.52% 125 0.5%
Change in Employment
In Edgecombe 2 0.03% 65 1.12% 47 0.8%
In Nash 169 1.02% 330 2.01% 142 0.9%
Citywide 171 0.76% 395 1.78% 189 0.8%

38. Local Employment Growth Continues68,033
67,133
66,248
67,193
67,699
66,359
65,958
65,490
65,701
64,495
66,411
67,870
68,039
62,846
62,213
60,950
61,776
62,580
61,307
61,401
60,646
60,880
59,730
61,735
62,899
63,425
55K
60K
65K
70K
2015/11 2015/12 2016/1 2016/2 2016/3 2016/4 2016/5 2016/06 2016/07 2016/08 2016/09 2016/10 2016/11
Labor Force & Employment Levels,
Rocky Mount MSA, November 2015 to November 2016
Labor Force Employed
24,392
24,054
23,673
24,017
24,301
23,952
23,803
23,613
23,753
23,335
23,927
24,294
24,419
22,437
22,213
21,725
22,020
22,301
21,849
21,884
21,615
21,693
21,290
22,004
22,419
22,608
20K
21K
22K
23K
24K
25K
2015/11 2015/12 2016/1 2016/2 2016/3 2016/4 2016/5 2016/06 2016/07 2016/08 2016/09 2016/10 2016/11
Labor Force & Employment Levels,
City of Rocky Mount, November 2015 to November 2016
Labor Force Employed

39. Local Employment Growth Continues
5.9%
4.9%
3.8%
2.8%
1.8%
1.5%
-1.8%
3.1%
2.7%
2.7%
2.8%
2.8%
9.8%
10.3%
-3.5%
2.8%
3.6%
1.5%
0.0%
-4.4%
1.3%
0.9%
-0.6%
0.0%
7.1%
-0.8%
-17.3%
-0.9%
-1.7%
-6.9%
7.8%
-20.6%
-6.0%
-7.6%
-11.6%
-9.7%
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20%
Retail Trade
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Manufacturing
Government
Professional and Business Services
Education and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality Services
Goods Producing
Service-Providing
Private Service Providing
Total Private
Total
Change in Rocky Mount MSA Nonfarm Employmentby Sectors, November 2016
1-Month 1-Year Since Jan. '08

40. How Do We Compare to Rest of NC?
24.0%
20.4%
13.7%
12.4%
12.3%
10.6%
9.4%
6.6%
2.9%
2.4%
1.1%
-0.3%
-1.2%
-1.4%
-3.7%
-7.8%
13.2%
9.3%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Raleigh
Charlotte
Burlington
Durham-CH
Wilmington
Asheville
Greenville
Jacksonville
G'boro-HighPoint
Winston-Salem
NewBern
Goldsboro
Hickory
Fayetteville
RockyMountMSA
CityofRockyMount
NCCombinedMetros
Statewide
Change in Employment Since January 2008
(as of November 2016)

41. How Do We Compare to Rest of NC?
8.3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
1.7%
1.6%
1.4%
0.7%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
-0.9%
-2.0%
-6.0%
0.7%
1.7%
0.2%
0.3%
1.6%
5.3%
7.4%
0.7%
6.0%
5.0%
2.9%
5.0%
1.9%
0.0%
2.5%
0.0%
-1.5%
-0.5%
-1.1%
1.5%
3.1%
2.6%
2.4%
2.9%
4.8%
10.5%
12.7%
8.6%
-16.3%
34.4%
27.2%
1.3%
-11.9%
14.3%
3.6%
4.8%
3.3%
20.4%
-13.3%
11.9%
13.8%
7.6%
7.1%
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Government
Retail Trade
Education and Health Services
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Construction
Administrative and Waste Management
Professional and Business Services
Other Services
Manufacturing
Management of Companies
Finance and Insurance
Financial Activities
Information
Leisure and Hospitality Services
Goods Producing
Service-Providing
Private Service Providing
Total Private
Total
Change in Statewide Employmentby Sectors, November 2016
1-Month 1-Year Since Jan. '08

42. How Do We Compare to Rest of NC?
4.1% 3.9%
5.4%
-0.3%
0.5%
3.1%
4.2%
-1.5%
4.9%
3.0%
5.8% 5.6%
5.0%
-5.2%
-1.4%
3.2%
5.8%
-2.1%
4.1%
3.5%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Annual Change in Per Capital Personal Income, 2006-2015
Rocky Mount MSA Statewide

43. How Do We Compare to Rest of NC?5.5%
-3.2%
3.7%
0.1%
-3.7%
-5.2%
-4.7%
-3.2%
-2.5%
4.8%
5.5%
0.1%
2.4%
-3.9%
1.1% 1.2%
-0.3%
1.5%
1.9% 2.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Annual Change in Real (Chained) GDP, 2006-2015
Rocky Mount MSA Statewide

44. Predictions

45. Small Business is Back (Mentally)

46. Consumers Feel Better

47. Capital Investment Looks Strong

48. Leading Indicators Continue Upward

49. General Outlook is Positive
“Real GDP is expected to
increase 1.6% in 2016, before
accelerating to 2.2% in 2017.
Few economists participating in
the survey believe a business
cycle peak is imminent.”

50. North Carolina’s Outlook (Dr. Connaughton)
1.3%
2.1%
2.7%
1.9% 2.0%
6.8%
5.7% 5.6%
5.0% 5.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Dr. Connaughton's 2017 North Carolina Economic
Forecast (Presented December 2016)
GDP Unemployment

51. North Carolina’s Outlook (Dr. Walden)
January 2017
+0.1% 1-Month Change
+1.0% 12-Month Change

52. North Carolina’s Outlook (Dr. Walden)

53. Questions?
Kenneth Hunter
kwhunter@gmail.com
Kenneth.Hunter@rockymountnc.gov