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1 of 44 | © BEHARRY, LYNDON MARTIN W. | 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | 12/7/2017 4:40 PM
Executive Summary
November 28, 2017
In July 2017, Heineken Asia Pacific: Mongolia (dba Mongolian Beverage Corp.) together
with Shunkhlai Group Holdings (Mongolian diversified investment firm) and APU Joint
Stock Company (Mongolia’s leading beverage and dairy processor) announced plans to
merge Mongolian operations into APU JSC. APU senior management outlined the merger
details during a special meeting of APU shareholders (August 18, 2017). In sum,
Heineken AP (MBC Brewery) and Shunkhlai Group (APU Trading Company and Sprit Bal
Buram) chartered an intermediate entity: Evergreen, to hold the assets and equity of
their respective interests (MBC, APU Trading and Sprit Bal Buram). This Evergreen entity
would merge into APU by end of 2017 Q4.
This report appraises the merger details, delivers the financial metrics, and offers a
detailed Discounted Cash Flow projection and analysis of value. The matter includes a
Porter Analysis, tables of financial ratios, list of assumptions, and cash flow analytics
following static and Monte Carlo models. But while the analyst has endeavored to be
meticulous and thorough, certain underlying information is proprietary and not publicly
available. The analyst has noted each instance where he was unable to obtain original
financial metrics.
Digitally signed by Beharry, Lyndon
Martin W.
DN: cn=Beharry, Lyndon Martin W.,
o=LMB Enterprises, L.C.,
ou=Consulting,
email=lmbeharry@yahoo.com, c=MN
Date: 2017.12.07 16:45:49 +08'00'
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Contents
Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................1
Overview of the Merger............................................................................................................................3
Overview of the Companies Involved ..................................................................................................4
Overview: APU Joint Stock Company (Mongolia: APU).............................................................4
Overview: Sprit BalBuram (Mongolia: SBB).................................................................................4
Overview: MCS-Asia Pacific Brewery - Heineken N.V. (Netherlands)...................................4
Porter Analysis for the New Entity by Division ...............................................................................5
MBC-Sprit BalBuram ..........................................................................................................................5
APU: Dairy...............................................................................................................................................6
APU: Beer and Alcohol ........................................................................................................................6
Summary of Financial Data...................................................................................................................8
Assumptions to the Model ...................................................................................................................10
Summary of Analytical Findings........................................................................................................14
Analysis of the Data and Assumptions............................................................................................16
The Monte Carlo Discounted Cash-Flow model. ......................................................................16
The Static Model..................................................................................................................................17
Static Model Sensitivity to WACC and to Growth Rates ........................................................18
Analysis of the Static Model ............................................................................................................19
Analysis of the Monte Carlo Model................................................................................................19
Recommendations Going Forward ....................................................................................................21
Appendix I: Brands.................................................................................................................................22
Appendix II: Ownership and Affiliates..............................................................................................38
Appendix III: APU Timeline..................................................................................................................39
Appendix IV: Miscellaneous.................................................................................................................41
Bibliography..................................................................................................................................................44
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Overview of the Merger
In July 2017, Heineken Asia Pacific through its subsidiary Heineken-APB-MCS publicly
announced its intent to merge its operations, along with the operations of Sprit BalBuram
into APU Joint Stock Company. The parties submitted that following due diligence and
review, the new entity would emerge during the fourth quarter of 2017.
During its August 18 2017 Extraordinary General Meeting of Shareholders, APU JSC
outlined its strategic plan for 1) Merger with the aforementioned entities; and 2)
separation of APU’s dairy division through a spin-off comprising 546,190,000 common
shares (par 100 MNT) inuring to and held by APU JSC – the process of which would not
diminish the number of APU JSC shares authorized and outstanding amongst the instant
corporate and institutional investors, and the public at large. (APU JSC, n.d.)
This article aims to provide a concise overview of the parties involved in this merger
transaction. Further, this summary will produce a Porter study, and projected
Discounted Cash Flow valuations of value-added through the merger.
Important note:
Certain of the underlying data are proprietary to privately held companies: notably Sprit
BalBuram and MCS-APB. So while the analyst has endeavored to thoroughly appraise
relevant documents to introduce the brands’ equity, financial models, legal constraints,
potential cannibalization, changes in export sales, reductions to costs of capital, and
other factors; this paper is limited in its forecast because of the lack of certain
information.
The analyst has therefore endeavored to use best practices to back into certain
underlying information and ratios. Such limitations are duly noted where they appear
within this analysis.
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Overview of the Companies Involved
Overview: APU Joint Stock Company (Mongolia: APU)
The Government of Mongolia (GoM) established APU in 1924 as a state-controlled entity
to produce beverage products for consumption in-country, and also for potential export.
Over its first few decades, the company name settled to АПУ: Архи, Пиво, Ундаа), or
translated as "Vodka, Beer, Soft drinks."
Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990’s, Mongolia undertook a
peaceful democratic revolution and overturned its communist system. At that time,
Government of Mongolia (GoM) started privatizing or partially privatizing its state-owned
enterprises. In 1992, 49% of APU shares were sold off to private investors; GoM floated
its 51% stake on the Mongolian Stock Exchange in 2001. In its present iteration, APU
JSC boasts over 100 Stock-Keeping Units (sku) across branded vodka, beer, water and
soft drinks; and since 2009, dairy.
Overview: Sprit BalBuram (Mongolia: SBB)
Government of Mongolia established the spirit factory in 1943. Extending its capacity in
1973 the “Sprit Bal Buram” company emerged as one of Mongolia’s leading food and
beverage manufacturers. Over the years, the company has evolved to supply its premium
and top-line wheat grain alcohols throughout the country. In 1998 GoM privatized Sprit
Bal Buram and the MCS Group acquired the company. (Prezi.com, n.d.) After
implementing its new quality management system in the 2000s, the company entered
foreign markets. The company sells its “Chinggis” brand under the name of
“GRANDKHAAN” in the USA, UK, Canada, South Korea, EU, Singapore and China.
Chinggis (GRANDKHAAN) and other branded products have successfully participated in
a number of exhibitions. In 2007, the Chinggis brand was presented with a special award
at the United Vodka Competition, and it has further received a “Superior Taste” award
at the International Competition organized by the International Taste and Quality
Institute. (International Beverage Network, n.d.)
Overview: MCS-Asia Pacific Brewery - Heineken N.V. (Netherlands)
MCS Asia Pacific Brewery LLC. (dba Mongolia Beverage Corp.: MBC) operates as a
subsidiary of Heineken Asia MTN Pte. Ltd. Based in Ulaanbaatar, the partners created
the entity in 2007. (Bloomberg.com, n.d.)
Heineken Asia Pacific (Heineken AP) acquired its present name and structure in 2013
following the merger of Asia Pacific Breweries (APB) with Joint Venture Heineken
International - Fraser and Neave, Limited. At 2017, Heineken AP controls 30 breweries
in 14 countries in the Asia Pacific region. The company markets over 40 beer brands and
variants. Heineken International owns Heineken AP.
APB managed breweries in Singapore, India, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia,
China, Vietnam, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, New Caledonia, Sri
Lanka, Laos and Mongolia. The company retains strong market presence in several
countries within the Asia Pacific Region, primarily in Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam,
Cambodia, Papua New Guinea and New Zealand. (Wikipedia, n.d.)
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Porter Analysis for the New Entity by Division
MBC-Sprit BalBuram
SUPPLIERS
Mongolia Beverage Corp. (MBC) had been the operating company managing MCS-APB
brewery and Sprit BalBuram. This entity had been sourcing grains supply from China;
and certain high-profile glassware bottling from France. These cross-border transactions
immediately suggest foreign exchange risk and a disjoint between product sales, whose
majority is denominated in ₮MNT, and Chinese ¥Yuan-Renminbi costs for grain, and
€Euro costs (albeit a small volume) for bottling.
If it is the case that that the new entity retains these supply chains, the merged entity
would face supply risk principally from imports of China grain. Since the early 2000s,
the Chinese-Mongolian partnership has remained amicable; but with several hiccups
along the way. Mongolia heavily relies upon China as the primary purchaser of a host of
mineral ores, fossil fuels, and animal husbandry raw materials. But history has shown
that during moments of political tension, China is quick to slow the flow at the borders.
Drinkers of premium, high-value beverage are taste conscious. The quality of the grain
source, its sugar content, physical chemistry of the mash mixture and a host of other
issues arise directly from the grain input. From this light, certain of the merged entity’s
strategic growth plans are subject to supplier power. In other words, APU may have
limited power to diversify away supply source risk.
BUYERS
The new APU entity will face cannibalization risk among several – perhaps many of the
brands, more probably on the lower, undifferentiated lines. Low-end consumers are price
conscious, and during promotion periods (whether by the Entity or by a supermarket
chain) buyers of low-end alcohol products are likely to purchase the least expensive
offering. Buyers of premium brands are less price conscious. At the high end, taste
preferences come more into play. Overall, the Entity may well see some switching of
brands – particularly if the Entity changes supply source for grain inputs.
Foreign buyers will certainly bear upon the new APU’s FCFI. During the past five years,
Mongolia’s currency strength has fallen by about 80% vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar 1300 to
2450 (i.e. 1300-2450/1300 = 88%). During 2017 2H, Mongolia’s tugrik has stabilized at
2420-2450. And with a return to stable growth, heightened copper and coal prices, and
fiscal responsibility, Mongolia has brought about conditions which may well buttress
Tugrik strength in the coming 18-24 months. Hence, appreciating Tugrik may well give
the appearance of a decreasing measure of foreign sales (i.e. dollars would purchase
fewer Tugrik at repatriation of earnings).
But this is a short-term concern. APU enjoys excellent mid-term and long-term prospects
growing international sales volume; and earnings (denominated in whichever currency).
NEW ENTRANTS
Neither Mongolia’s capital availability nor population nor taste preference give credence
to a possibility of another large alcohol producer entering this market.
INTERNAL RIVALRY
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This merger/consolidation will tend to increase in-house rivalry. Certain of the marketed
products man tend to cannibalize sales from others.
SUBSTITUTES
There are no acceptable (legal) substitutes for alcoholic beverages.
APU: Dairy
SUPPLIERS
Mongolian supply competes against SUU JSC, Mongolia’s leading producer of dairy
products. But, in this case, APU has traditionally sourced New Zealand powdered milk
for Tsever Suu.
-Packaging materials relies on European technology
BUYERS
Stiff competition from Mongolia’s leading dairy producer: SUU JSC. (Beharry, 2017)
Buyers in Mongolia’s national market are sensitive to price, perception of quality, and
sensitive to differentiation on packaging and branding.
NEW ENTRANTS
Mongolian dairy is undergoing consolidation (VitaFit is losing share to APU and SUU,
etc.). Furthermore, the food and dairy industry faces stringent controls on hygiene –
which creates hurdles on in-house development in adherence to regulatory structure;
and requires capital investment towards pasteurization, packaging and logistics to
deliver fresh material to processing and consumption. Under these constraints,
considering Mongolia’s limited internal market, it is unlikely that a new entrée could find
success producing dairy in Mongolia.
INTERNAL INDUSTRY RIVALRY
As noted above, Mongolia’s leading dairy producers APU and SUU engage in intense
industrial rivalry. (Beharry, 2017)
SUBSTITUTES
There are no viable substitutes for dairy.
APU: Beer and Alcohol
SUPPLY
APU sources grain grown locally in Mongolia. Over the decades, the company has grown
close relationships with independent grain farmers (and has integrated backward
***check this***).
But all quality beverage producers require fresh matter for distillation and brewing.
Because of this, there is always a potential that bad harvest or blight would affect local
grain production. In such a case, APU would be forced to purchase grain inputs from
abroad: China and/or Russia. In such a case, the Entity would face additional costs
relevant to tariffs and/or excise taxes.
Furthermore, APU purchases some packaging materials from international markets. A
UK glassmaker forms certain premium bottles. While the volume of glassware bottling is
small in comparison, Foreign Exchange volatility does bear somewhat to these costs.
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BUYERS
The new APU entity will likely face cannibalization risk among several – perhaps many -
of lower, undifferentiated brand lines. Buyers are price conscious, and during promotion
periods (whether by the Entity or by a supermarket chain) buyers of low-end alcohol
products are likely to purchase the less expensive offering. While this is less of an issue
on premium brands, where consumer taste preferences come more into play; the Entity
may well see some switching of brands – particularly if the Entity changes supply source
for grain inputs.
Foreign buyers will certainly bear upon the new APU’s FCFI. During the past five years,
Mongolia’s currency strength has fallen by over 80% vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar from 1300
to 2450 ₮MNT/$USD (i.e.
[2450−1300]
[1300]
= 88%). During 2017 2H, Mongolia’s tugrik has
stabilized at 2420-2450. And with a return to stable growth, heightened copper and coal
export prices, and fiscal responsibility, Mongolia has brought about conditions which
may well buttress Tugrik strength in the coming 18-24 months. Hence, appreciating
Tugrik may well give the appearance of a decreasing measure of foreign sales (i.e. dollars
would purchase fewer Tugrik at repatriation of earnings). But deleterious foreign
exchange repatriation is a short-term concern. APU enjoys excellent mid-term and long-
term prospects for growth in international sales volume; and in earnings (denominated
in whichever currency).
INTERNAL INDUSTRY RIVALRY
The merger/consolidation will lessen industrial rivalry. APU JSC will emerge as
Mongolia’s leading beverage and alcohol producer.
BARRIERS TO EXIT
There are no barriers to exit.
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Summary of Financial Data
All Monetary units in 1,000 ₮MNT; Units (in general): ‘000
1. Post-merger Shares Outstanding: 1,064,182
2. Beta: 1.230284
[𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴 𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅 𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡 𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀 𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇 20 𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼]
[𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉 𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀 𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇 20 𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼]
Time interval: November 7, 2016 – November 21, 2017
3. WACC: 15.179% (see the Assumptions for the breakdown)
4. Base2016 Revenue: 688,911,708
The 2017 base revenue is the amalgamation of 2016 revenue for all parties involved
adjusted for 5.00% growth over 2016:
1) APU JSC; 2) MCS-APB; 3) SBB; and 4) APU Trading.
5. Projected Revenue Growth Rate for the model: 7.00% (Conservative estimate
achieving forecast inflation index + 1.5% true growth in a competitive environment
with ForEx sales risk).
6. Asset Base
ASSETS 2016 2017 PRO-FORMA
CURRENT ASSETS
Cash 16,636,675 39,994,000
Accounts Receivable 9,984,743 16,028,000
Inventories 51,636,625 73,973,000
Investments in Securities / Short-term Securities 33,812
Taxes and social security contributions - Manual 1,269,753
Other receivables 5,171,261 11,230,000
Prepaid expenses / settlement 5,218,459 5,646,000
Other current assets 14,439 34,000
Total Current 89,965,766 146,905,000
NON-CURRENT ASSETS
Property Plant and Equipment (Net of Depreciation) 189,332,593 332,843,000
Intangible (Other Intangible) 553,659
Long-term Marketable Securities 904,836
Biological Assets (Livestock, other) 82,952
Total Non-Current 201,104,021 544,035,000
Total Assets 291,069,787 690,940,000
7. Liability Base
LIABILITIES 2016 2017 PRO-FORMA
CURRENT LIABILITIES
Accounts Payable 32,798 2,143,000
Current Portion of Debt 793,955
Payroll giving 370,530
The tax debt 9,963,269 11,283,000
Short term loan 39,742,390
Interest payable 794,000
Dividend Payable 19,881,881 21,129,000
Other short-term liabilities 6,542,198 18,186,000
Total Current Liabilities 77,327,021 53,535,000
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LIABILITIES 2016 2017 PRO-FORMA
NON-CURRENT LIABILITIES 2016 2017 Pro-Forma
Notes payable / Long-term Debt 70,117,592 73,972,000
Long-term deferred tax 244,268
Other long-term liabilities 195,434 2,345,000
Total Non-Current Liabilities 70,557,295 76,317,000
Total Liabilities 147,884,316 129,852,000
8. Equity Stated (The analyst adjusted outstanding shares to Par = 1.00 ₮MNT ; the
difference deducted from Additional Capital Paid-In. Total Equity Value remains
unchanged)
STOCKHOLDERS’ EQUITY 2016 2017 PRO-FORMA
Capital Stock 742,877 1,064,182
Treasury Stock 121
Additional Capital Paid-In -668,831 337,136,818
Retained Earnings 62,458,059 89,916,000
Reserves 132,971,000
Property Revaluation 80,653,246
Shareholder Equity 143,185,472 561,088,000
9. Monte Carlo Methodology
Monte Carlo is a statistics-mathematics process. In finance, Monte Carlo analysis
aims to mimic real-world volatility (cost structures, inflation, machine or process
downtime/failure, prices, time intervals, weighted average cost of capital, etc.) to
probabilistically predict a range of outcomes.
The analyst employed the identical variable structure for both the static and Monte
Carlo equity valuation models. BUT, the Monte Carlo process dynamically alters the
factors within defined constraints. In this instance, Monte Carlo uses the variables
as the statistical mean (arithmetic average), and fluctuated each factor 250,000 times
at a standard deviation of 10% of the mean value.
10.Historical Variable Components of the functional model (note, mean values assume
normal distribution):
VARIABLE COMPONENT: 2016 HISTORICAL MEAN: µ STDEV: σ PROJECTED1
CoGS : f(Revenue) 68.968% 0.737% 67.000%
Depreciation/Amortization [COGs] : f(Revenue) 9.000% 0.184% 8.000%
SGA (Only) : f(Revenue) 13.812% 13.843%
R&D : f(Revenue) NA NA 0.000%
Depreciation / Amortization: (SGA) NA NA 0.000%
Total Administrative Overhead : f(Revenue) 13.843% 0.128% 13.843%
Other Expense (Income)/Overhead : f(Revenue) 2.968% 3.000%
Interest Expense (Income) : f(Revenue) 0.952% 0.926%
Tax Rate : f(EBT) 25.000% 8.201% 24.500%
Capital Expenditures : f(Revenue) 5.000% 0.186% 5.000%2
Working Capital : f(Revenue)3 0.000% 0.716% 0.000%
∆ Working Capital : f(Revenue) 0.000% 0.690% 0.000%
1 Projected figures are conservative estimates based upon historical patterns for APU JSC adjusted and tempered
for industry norms and also for Heineken N.V. consolidated statements.
2 Heineken N.V. consolidated statements reflect an adjusted CapEx base of approximately 8.00% of revenue. The
analyst believes that APU JSC and MBC recent CapEx pushes down this thresh-hold for the short-intermediate
term.
3 The analyst believes Working Capital is properly considered within overall CapEx.
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Assumptions to the Model
1. Inflation
The International Monetary Fund and other agencies have projected near and
intermediate-term Mongolian inflation to a percentage of 5.5% to 6.5% per annum.
2. Bank of Mongolia Policy Rate
Since June 2017, Government of Mongolia / Bank of Mongolia Policy Rate: 12.000%
(with REPO at 14.000%). (Bank of Mongolia, n.d.)
3. Market Returns (Mongolian Stock Exchange market figures)
To evaluate Ke in the CAPM, the DCF model uses the U.S. S&P 1970 – 2000s average
returns of 11.00% plus a 5.00% risk and inflationary premium for Mongolia systemic
risk. This imputes Mongolian Stock Market returns of 16.00%; an estimate for the
opportunity cost of investing in equity floated on the MSE. The following chart tabulates
Mongolian Stock Exchange historic returns and volatility:
Jan 1 MSE-20 CAGR
Arithmetic
Growth
MSE-All CAGR
Arithmetic
Growth
2012 21687.57
2013 17609.14 -18.81% -18.81%
2014 16301.81 -13.30% -7.42%
2015 14854.24 -11.85% -8.88% 998.94
2016 12897.59 -12.18% -13.17% 895.88 -10.32% -10.32%
2017 12456.06 -10.50% -3.42% 861.24 -7.15% -3.87%
20184 23586.66 1.41% 89.36% 1273.16 8.42% 47.83%
Mean -10.87% 6.28% Mean -3.01% 11.22%
2013-2018 6.02% 2013-2018
2014-2018 9.68% 2014-2018
2015-2018 16.66% 2015-2018 8.42%
4. Weighted Average Cost of Debt
Based upon the estimated and Pro-Forma Balance Sheets reflecting an estimated Book
Valuation of Long-Term Debt: 73,972,000; the analyst estimates the cost of debt:
ISOLATION OF COST OF DEBT
2012 EBRD Loan Facility 56,000,000 $USD
2012 Average ForEx Rate 1353.095 MNT/USD
Estimated Booked Long-term Debt (based upon
2012 Q4 ForEx translation) ‘000 ₮MNT
75,780,949
Actual Balance Sheet Carrying Value ‘000 ₮MNT 73,972,000
Current 2017 Q4 LIBOR 6-month6 1.652%
Estimated Risk Premium on EBRD loan to APU 5.50%
Effective Loan Interest at 2017 LIBOR 7.152%
Annual Loan Payment (at rate in $USD) $USD 56,000,000 X 7.152% = $USD 4,005,120
2017 ForEx MNT:USD 2450
Interest Payment in MNT ₮MNT 9,812,544,000
Effective Debt Cost at 2017
9,812,544
73,972,000
= 13.265%
4 Most recent 2017 figure to approximate Jan 1, 2018.
5 Average of weekly ForEx. (QuandL, 2017)
6 Six-month LIBOR at November 27, 2017. (Wall Street Journal, 2017)
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5. Weighted Average Cost of Common Equity7
This analysis uses two models to value the cost of equity:
Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM): E(ri) = rf + β[E(rm)-rf]8 ; and
Gordon Dividend Growth Model: KE = [(RoE - gn ) X (BV0 / P0)] + gn
Where RoE9 = 20.00% and gn = 5.50% to account for inflationary pressures.
6. Weighted Average Cost of Preferred Shares
There are neither preferred shares Authorized nor Outstanding.
7. Consideration for volatility attributed to Common Shares Free-floating held by neither
Corporate entities nor Institutions:
Negligible; 94.222% of Authorized Shares are held by Corporate and/or Institutional
Investors
8. Weighted Average Cost of Capital
The formula for Weighted Average Cost of Capital:
�(𝐾𝐾𝐾𝐾∗𝐸𝐸)+(𝐾𝐾𝐾𝐾𝐾𝐾∗𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃)+�𝐾𝐾𝐾𝐾∗𝐵𝐵∗(1−𝑡𝑡)��
[𝐸𝐸+𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃+𝐵𝐵]
Where KE = Cost of Common Equity; KPE = Cost of Preferred Equity; KB = Cost of Debt
This analysis uses an arithmetic mean WACC of 15.179% ; calculated as an average of
the WACC derived from CAPM (+15.916%) and WACC derived from Gordon (+14.442%);
where Ke CAPM = 16.921% ; and Gordon Ke = 15.196%; and 13.265% for weighted cost
of Debt
9. Comparison of Industry and Relevant Statistics
Industry Heineken N.V.
(2016)
APU (2016)
Current Ratio 0.78 1.16
Acid Test Ratio 0.307510 0.2919
0.5855
0.215511
0.344712
Leverage Ratio 1.44 1.69
0.63
1.0313
0.5114
Return on Assets 9.35%15 4.44% 7.66%
Return on Equity 22.83%16 11.99% 15.58%
Revenue Growth 2.62%17 3.956%18 1.403%19
10. Projected Revenue Growth
In 2017, the consolidated international alcoholic beverage industry20 posted an average
annual revenue growth rate of 2.62%. Assuming a U.S. dollar inflation rate of 1.50% to
1.75%, this implies real growth of 1.00% Y-o-Y. This model will grow APU revenue by
Mongolian inflation (6.00% + 1.00% to mimic real-world industry growth).
7 See the Appendices for the mathematical calculations.
8 The analyst calculated E(rm) at 16.00% following: US Equities Market Return (c. 1970s – 2000s) = 11.00% + a
risk premium of 5.00% for Mongolian Stock Exchange risk.
9 Approximating the industry standard Culled from CSI Market (CSI Market dot Com, 2017)
10 Average of Past Four Quarters
11 Exclusive of Accounts Receivable
12 Inclusive of Accounts Receivable
13 Debt:Equity (Book Value)
14 Debt:Debt+Equity (Book value)
15 Culled from CSI Market (CSI Market dot Com, 2017)
16 Culled from CSI Market (CSI Market dot Com, 2017)
17 2.62% : Average of Sequential Revenue Quarterly Growth 2014 Q4 – 2017 Q3 (CSI Market dot Com, 2017); Note,
U.S. 2-year bond rate yield = 1.76%; hence Alcohol revenue is growing approximately 1.00% higher than estimated
inflation.
18 Five-Year Compound Annual Growth Rate
19 Four-Year Compound Annual Growth Rate
20 Average of Past Four Quarters
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The model will reduce sequential annual growth by a factor of 0.20% to achieve a 10-
year reduction in growth to match projected inflation rates, and assure conservative
discounted cash-flow estimates.
The analyst adjusted 2016 Revenue factors by 5.00% to achieve baseline 2017 figures.
See the breakdown in the Appendices.
11.Debt consolidation
Post-merger, the entity shareholder: Heineken may well find it prudent and in its better
interest to improve FCFI by assisting the new APU entity with debt structuring at lower,
long-term, beneficent rates. This would allow APU, Heineken’s affiliate, to repay at
improving ForEx translation rates. In such a regard, the new APU entity may find its re-
aligned capital cost structure at 10.000% or less. This analysis will consider APU’s
existing WACC as well as alternatives in a more relaxed capital cost structure.
12.APU Dairy (wholly-owned subsidiary) Growth
APU Dairy: APU will spin-off APU Dairy as a wholly-owned subsidiary. APU JSC August
18 2017 Extraordinary General Meeting of Shareholders projected total dairy sales (coded
orange) to follow the trajectory outlined in the graphic (the analyst’s conservative
projection (13.5% growth): blue):
Higher growth rates are possible; contingent upon the means through which the merger
enables the new APU entity to export through leverage of Heineken’s international trade
network. But domestically, the new APU entity still suffers market saturation in dairy,
stiff competition, and pricing constraints.
This instant analysis does not contemplate a detailed forecast of whether and how APU
Dairy could achieve a 22.466% CAGR over the next four-year horizon. Nevertheless,
assuming a normal inflation price increase of 6% coupled with natural brand growth of
7.5% per annum; this analysis conservatively estimates APU Dairy revenue growth of
13.5% growth per annum. (See the SUU analysis (Beharry, 2017) for data relevant to
dairy market saturation in Mongolia, and particularly Asian lactose intolerance.)
13.APU Dairy Ownership
APU will retain 100% ownership of the APU Dairy subsidiary, with earnings posting to
APU FCFF as either a) Earnings in Associates/Affiliates; b) Dividends; or c) another type
of pass-through mechanism.
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
APU Proj Dairy Sales ₮MNT 000's 22,358,000 28,319,000 34,765,000 42,130,000 50,291,000
Analyst's Proj 22,358,000 25,376,330 28,802,135 32,690,423 37,103,630
APU Proj CAGR 26.662% 24.697% 23.515% 22.466%
22,358,000
28,319,000
34,765,000
42,130,000
50,291,000
22,358,000
25,376,330
28,802,135
32,690,423
37,103,630
26.662%
24.697%
23.515%
22.466%
20.000%
22.000%
24.000%
26.000%
28.000%
30.000%
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
APUProjCAGR
APUProjDairySales₮MNT000's
APU Company Dairy Sales Projections 1,000 ₮MNT
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14.Brand Redundancies
During the first 18 to 24 months, the merged entity may encounter redundancies in
production and sales – especially at the lower end of product offerings (see the Porter
analysis above). The analyst believes that the merged entity will prudently consolidate
certain low-end brand offerings to reduce CoGS. While this will tend to increase sales
volatility in the short-term; consolidation will contribute to long-term value through cost
reductions.
15.Employment and Capital Redundancies
Post-merger, the new APU entity will face employee redundancies, clashes in entity
culture (across Four major segments: APU, SBB, MBC: MCS-APB, and APU Dairy until
the spin-off). Owing to Mongolia’s traditional socialist culture (and even Dutch
progressive culture of training workers for value), the new entity will likely achieve
attrition through normal means: retirement etc.
The new APU entity may find redundancies in capital infrastructure: a) logistics and
supply-chain management (truck fleet, fueling depots, delivery routes, computing
infrastructure and optimization routines, etc.); b) beer production infrastructure
(inefficient vs. efficient power plant systems, kettles and brewing hardware, disposal
methods, etc.); c) distillation infrastructure; and in other issues.
These redundancies, the new APU’s methodology in managing these redundancies, while
maintaining morale, will bear significantly upon productivity in the early months of the
post-merger period.
16.Projected 2017 Base-Line Revenue
The analyst estimated 2017 Baseline Revenue at 2016 Consolidated X 1.05 of 2016.
5.00% Growth = Average of 5.50% Inflation Index tempered conservatively. The analyst
believes this figure to be a conservative estimate in consideration that the merged entity
will enjoy greater price flexibility owing to decreased competition, while accommodating
for cannibalization and brand redundancies.
17.Common Equity Out: 1,064,182
18.Valuation of PPE: Unknown – whether book value, or adjusted to replace cost at
merger.
19.Whether Heineken may offer better financing from its network (something higher than
Heineken internal hurdle rate, but substantially better than Mongolia debt rates):
Unknown. If Heineken offers better capital rates, the valuation would become
somewhat more valuable.
20.Rate of Product cannibalization within branded product lines by division – especially
during promotion periods: Unknown. The analyst requires greater source data on
brand equity.
21.Restructuring charges and employee attrition: Unknown. The analyst requires greater
information on branding equity, PPE, and redundancies in productive capital
equipment, capacity, and foreign sales targets.
22.Environmental and sustainability issues. The analyst believes APU has instituted
stakeholder management policies toward sustainability across a range of
environmental and sustainability issues.
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Summary of Analytical Findings
VALUATIONS
The analyst evaluated the several standard models for per share values (below). The
analyst also tested the assumptions using a thorough Monte Carlo multi-iteration step
model (250,000 iterations of all financial information and Assumptions for each of ten
years forward plus perpetuity):
Model Valuation ₮MNT Criteria and Variables
Static DCF 1,150.034 7.00% Growth
CAPM 921.923
P/E 628.886 X 30
Book Value 1,009.124 X 7.5
Monte Carlo DCF µ 1,180.474 σ 389.535; Lognormal
Mean of Models 933.963
FINANCIAL RATIOS
FINANCIAL RATIOS | FY 2016
2017
PRO-FORMA
CURRENT 1.163 2.744
ACID TEST 0.344 1.046
DEBT:EQUITY 1.032 0.231
DEBT:DEBT+EQUITY 0.508 0.187
ROA (ADJUSTED FOR D&A) 0.076 0.033
ROE 0.155 0.041
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS ON STATIC MODEL
This static model provides per
share price at incremental
WACC discount rates; holding
growth constant.
WACC
Rate
Per Share
9.621% 1,369.152
10.222% 1,309.439
10.823% 1,253.161
11.425% 1,200.097
12.026% 1,150.038
12.627% 1,102.793
13.229% 1,058.182
13.830% 1,016.038
14.431% 976.207
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This static model provides per
share price at incremental Rates
of Growth; holding WACC
constant.
Growth
Rate
Per Share
0.02 820.154
0.03 876.545
0.04 937.385
0.05 1,003.006
0.06 1,073.763
0.07 1,150.034
0.08 1,232.224
0.09 1,320.761
0.1 1,416.104
0.11 1,518.737
0.12 1,629.179
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Analysis of the Data and Assumptions
The Monte Carlo Discounted Cash-Flow model.
Description:
1. The Monte Carlo model projected revenue at a mean growth rate of 7.00% with a
coefficient of variability equal to 10% (in other words, oscillating the mean growth
rate at a standard deviation of 10% of the mean value).
2. The Monte Carlo model reduced each subsequent year growth by 0.20% from
2017Base. Hence, 2018 estimated growth: 7.00% - 0.20% = 6.80%; 2019: 6.60%
and so on; with tenth year = 5.00%. Note: Monte Carlo oscillates these projected
growth rates with a coefficient of variability of 10% .
The analyst uses this approach to err towards conservative valuation.
3. The Perpetuity uses Year10 as a base, with a growth rate of 5.50% (projected
inflation) divided by WACC-Growth = 15.179% - 5.50% = 9.679% .
Sample Progression
4. The Monte Carlo model estimates cost factors according to revenue or Earnings
Before Taxes (see the Summary of Data and the Assumptions).
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The Static Model
1. The Static Model projects Revenue forward at a 7.00% growth rate.
2. The Static Model Perpetuity uses Year10 as a base, with a growth rate of 5.50%
(projected inflation) divided by WACC-Growth = 15.179% - 5.50% = 9.679% .
Progression
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Static Model Sensitivity to WACC and to Growth Rates
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Analysis of the Static Model
1. At the estimated 7.00% Growth Rate and the stated WACC of 15.179%; the static
model returns a per share price of ₮MNT 1,117.33.
2. The summary charts (above) reflect various valuations according to differing
WACC and Rates of Growth.
Analysis of the Monte Carlo Model
Summation:
FORECAST NAME: APU COMPANY MONTE CARLO SIMULATION VALUATION PER SHARE
TRIALS: 250,000
Mean 1,142.38
Median 1,141.00
Mode ---
Standard Deviation 192.68
Variance 37,123.74
Skewness 0.0192
Kurtosis 3.07
Coeff. of Variation 0.1687
Minimum 74.03
Maximum 2,034.83
Mean Std. Error 0.3854
Fit Distribution Name Lognormal
Fit: Location -30,333.351
Fit: Mean 1,142.379
Fit: Std. Dev. 192.675
Fit: Beta 4.402033854
The Monte Carlo model oscillates defined curve
parameters:
Parameter Projected
CoGS : f(Rev) 67.00%
Depreciation/Amortization [COGs] : f(Rev) 8.00%
SGA (Only) : f(Rev) 13.84%
R&D : f(Rev) 0.00%
Depreciation / Amortization: (SGA) 0.00%
Total Administrative Overhead : f(Rev) 13.84%
Other Expense (Income)/Overhead : f(Rev) 3.00%
Interest Expense (Income) : f(Rev) 0.93%
Tax Rate : f(EBT) 24.50%
Capital Expenditures : f(Rev) 5.00%
Oracle Crystal Ball snapshot showing the
simulation frequency of variable oscillation.
The Monte Carlo model returned a Mean per
share valuation of ₮MNT 1,142.38 following a
slightly skewed lognormal distribution with
standard deviation of ₮MNT 192.68.
The (weighted) minimum ₮MNT per share
valuation under these constraints: 74.03; the
(weighted) maximum: 2,034.83
The ₮MNT range: 1,960.798
Shares Outstanding: 1,064,182
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The following analysis describes a statistical ranging and probability of per share
valuation above (or below) a given threshold.
Probability of
Share Value
Above Threshold
000 0.998569
250 0.991761
500 0.960695
750 0.865930
1,000 0.678106
1,250 0.427389
1,500 0.205295
1,750 0.072309
This summary
indicates a fairly strong
probability of fair
valuation above 1,100
and above 1,200.
The Monte Carlo volatility models show strength in valuation overall. Within the
stated constraints, Monte Carlo reflects a 68% probability of fair value above
₮MNT 1,000; and a nearly nil probability of financial demise.
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Recommendations Going Forward
This analysis concludes that the APU JSC merger with SBB and MBC will provide
excellent shareholder value and excellent opportunities for APU to consolidate and grow
sales.
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Appendix I: Brands
ENTITY DIVISION BRAND DESCRIPTION
APU Dairy
Fresh milk and tarag "Deej" filled in the most convenient packaging, Pure
Pak, with wider closure are produced by APU Company. Brand's superior
quality and outstanding taste are carefully crafted by best professionals of
the country. "Deej" brand delivers authentic nomad soul and Mongolian
unique culture.
APU Dairy
APU Company produces Mongolia's first dairy and juice brand “Maamuu"
dedicated to children for their healthy and happy lifestyle. “Maamuu"
brand is a blend of high quality milk, real fruit, modern technology and
essential nutrition for healthy growth. The brand is represented by two
characters, a boy Sergelen and a girl Tsovoo, who aim to promote healthy,
happy and active lifestyle among children. "My friend - Maamuu"
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ENTITY DIVISION BRAND DESCRIPTION
APU Dairy
A variety of healthy choices for the whole family, Sain brand is made with
fresh milk and the highest quality of natural ingredients from Europe.
Modern processing technology and ecofriendly packaging deliver a wide
range of nutritious dairy products with charming design. "The best for your
loved ones"
APU Dairy
One of Mongolia’s most recognized and trusted milk brands; “Tsever Suu”
is made with the best quality milk powder from New Zealand and is
available in the convenient Tetra Pak packaging that keeps in all the
goodness. Produced strictly according to ISO 22000 standards, “Tsever
Suu” brand was first introduced in 2006 with its creamy taste which
contains essential nutrients for a healthy lifestyle. Available in 1 L Tetra
Pak packaging, 3.2% fat
APU Beer
This iconic pale lager is named after the largest desert region in Mongolia
and Asia, and using only the finest ingredients, it is brewed strictly
according to the German Beer Purity Law (Reinheitsgebot) first established
in 1516. Golden Gobi is golden in hue, high in foaminess and has a light,
refreshing flavor with sweet finish. Alcohol content is 5.1%.
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ENTITY DIVISION BRAND DESCRIPTION
APU Beer
Mongolians have known and loved Borgio since 1927. Its bold yet smooth
taste attracts true beer aficionados of different generations. True definition
of Mongolian pale lager, Borgio is brewed with full, distinctive and classic
German character. Neither malt nor hops are dominant; both are in good
balance with a touch of sweetness, providing a smooth yet crispy
refreshing taste. Alcohol content is 5.5%. Available in 0.5 L can, 0.5 L
bottle, 2 L PET bottle, 2.5 L PET bottle
APU Beer
Draft style beer available in local restaurants and pubs, first brewed in
2005. This full bodied special lager is produced by traditional German
technology and was released in two variations: filtered and non-filtered.
Alcohol content is 5.0%. Available in draft
APU Beer
With its centuries of brewing expertise APU Company has recently
released, Kaltenberg Hefeweissbier the first ever locally bottled wheat beer
for the enjoyment of our customers. APU Company is delighted to
introduce this great beer, under the license of König Ludwig International
GmbH. This wheat beer brewed by an ancient Bavarian recipe carries
distinct aroma of cloves and bananas. Alcohol content is 5.8%. Available
in 0.5 L bottle
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ENTITY DIVISION BRAND DESCRIPTION
APU Beer
Literally meaning “Capital”, Niislel beer is one of the premier brands that
was introduced in 1972. Representing responsible drinking and
metropolitan culture, Niislel brand is a lead choice for young
metropolitans. This refreshing clear lager with subtle taste and light malty
aroma has a mild sweet flavor. Alcohol content is 5.0%. Available in 0.45
L bottle, 0.5 L can, 1.5 L PET bottle, 2.5 L PET bottle
APU Beer
Цэвэр лагер төрлийн шар айрагны хамгийн шинэлэг, хамгийн зөөлөн
сонголт болох Prime брэнд нь 4.6%-ийн спиртийн агууламжтай.
Савлагаа: 330 мл, 500 мл
APU Beer
SERUUN brand is produced using the state-of-the-art cold filtration
technology made available by the New Brewery expansion project. Meeting
the demands of the new generation of light beer lovers, SERUUN brand
incorporates the essence of TRUE LIGHT beer through innovation and
expertise of 90 years. First produced in 2015, SERUUN brand is a
refreshingly sparkling beer with great notes of malt and clean smooth
taste. Alcohol content is 4.8%. Available in 0.33 L bottle, 0.45 L bottle, 0.5
L can, 2.5 L PET bottle and draft.
Time to quench your thirst – ULTRA DRINKABILITY
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ENTITY DIVISION BRAND DESCRIPTION
APU Beer
Named after the ancient capital of Mongolia, Khar Khorum premium dark
beer is the first and only, true Mongolian bottled dark beer. Available in
0.33 L bottle, 0.45 L bottle, 0.5 L can
APU Vodka
Standard filtration was not enough for this ALPHA vodka, therefore, silver
and dia­mond filtrations are used to make more smooth taste with no
bitterness. Fine organic ingredients are used to develop the liquid. In order
to make Alpha spirit we used the best grain from Selenge province and
Pure water from sacred Bogd khan mountain.
APU Vodka
An unique infused vodka using the indigenous Rhodiola roots revered for
its medicinal properties related to energy, stamina, strength, and mental
capacity.
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ENTITY DIVISION BRAND DESCRIPTION
APU Vodka
Internationally recognized for its quality and taste, Altan Turuu means
‘Golden Spike’ or ‘Gold Winner’, referring to the supreme quality of wheat
and the title of a winner in traditional horse racing competition.
APU Vodka
Mongolia’s original export vodka since 1976 – Trusted for purity and
quality, Mongolia’s best-selling vodka, affectionately known as “X” to the
locals.
Six step distilled alpha-grade spirit; Filtered using cutting edge diamond
filtration process; Honeyed notes with mellow spice and hint of fresh
pepper at the edges followed by hint of creamy aniseed
APU Vodka
Meaning ‘Crystal’, “Bolor” vodka was launched in 1981 to commemorate
the first Mongolian in space, and comes in original, orange and cranberry
flavors.
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ENTITY DIVISION BRAND DESCRIPTION
APU Vodka
A visionary vodka – Our expression of the highest respect for Chinggis
Khan and Mongolia, defined by our wealth of natural resources, culture
and traditions.
Six step distilled alpha-grade spirit Filtered over 10 days through charcoal,
quartz, diamonds, pearls and silver Silky texture with floral overtones of
lavender and hint of creamy aniseed.
APU Vodka
Өөрийн гэсэн мэдрэмжээр ертөнцийг хардаг, урлаг уран сайхныг
таашааж үздэг, зорилго мөрөөдөлдөө үнэнч хэн бүхэнд зориулан APU
компани “Мэдрэмж хөглөх амт“ буюу “EDEN”(ЭДЕН) брэндийг 2016 онд
зах зээлд нэвтрүүллээ. "Мэдрэмж хөглөх Eden"
APU Vodka
Meaning “Good Wish”, “Eruul” is the first vodka in Mongolia to use the
silver filtration process for extra purity and smoothness.
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ENTITY DIVISION BRAND DESCRIPTION
APU Vodka
Meaning ‘Black Pearl’, hence the opaque black bottle, the “Khar Suvd”
brand is exceptionally smooth vodka with a hint of dark roasted coffee that
is crafted using a unique pearl filtration process.
APU Vodka
Мэдлэгтэй, мэдээлэлтэй, ухаалаг сонголт хийдэг өөрийн гэсэн
ертөнцийг үзэх үзэл, амьдралын хэв маягтай хэрэглэгчиддээ зориулан
APU компани "ариун дагшин байгалийн шимт бүхнийг дээжилсэн" цоо
шинэ Охь брэндээ хүргэж байна. "Шимийн дээд Охь"
APU Vodka
A Mongolian legend – Mongolia’s best-selling super premium vodka
dedicated to be the classic expression of traditional ceremony and national
genuine quality.
Six step distilled alpha-grade spirit Filtered over 5 days through charcoal,
quartz, diamonds and silver. Elegant medium-bodied mouth feel with
creamy aniseed and hint of citrus and bread notes
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ENTITY DIVISION BRAND DESCRIPTION
APU Vodka
Тайга брэнд нь Монгол нутгийн хөрсөнд ургасан эмийн ургамал,
жимсгэнийн ханд агуулсан онцгой найрлага бүхий 4 улирлыг агуулсан
байгалийн гаралтай цагаан архийг зах зээл дээр 2016 онд хэрэглэгч
олондоо бэлэг болгон хүргэж байна. "Mongolian Natural Vodka"
APU Vodka
First produced in 1963, Ulaanbaatar vodka commemorates the capital of
Mongolia. Rebranded to the current modern design in 2012, Ulaanbaatar
vodka is four-step distilled for a smooth taste with a hint of blackberry.
APU Vodka
“VELVET” брэнд нь залуусын цагийг зугаатай, хөгжилтэй өнгөрүүлэх
тансаг үдшийн хэв маягийн илэрхийлэл бөгөөд энэхүү бүтээгдэхүүнийг
шинийг санаачлах хүсэл эрмэлзэлтэй, өөртөө итгэлтэй эрч хүчээр
дүүрэн бүсгүйчүүд болон залуус та бүхэндээ зориулан 2016 онд APU
компани, шинэ үеийн төлөөлөл болсон залуу үеийнхэндээ хүргэж байна.
“Эрх чөлөөгөө тунхагла!”
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ENTITY DIVISION BRAND DESCRIPTION
APU Vodka
An unique infused vodka using the indigenous hand-picked Yamaakhai
roots known for its medicinal properties related to recovery and
rejuvenation.
APU
Soft
Drink
First ever bottled pure water brand in Mongolia sourced from the sacred
Bogd Khan Mountains, trusted for its purity and quality, APU Pure water
still remains the best source of refreshment for local consumers. Available
in 0.33 L, 0.5 L, 1.5 L PET packaging
APU
Soft
Drink
Containing all the good stuff, Frutta brand provides all types of
refreshment to everyone in the family. Frutta brand has less sugar and
more natural ingredients, and offers great taste to those who want healthy
yet tasty refreshment for all occasions. Frutta brand offers wide variety of
fruit juices to sparkling soft drinks with all natural fruit flavors.
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ENTITY DIVISION BRAND DESCRIPTION
APU
Soft
Drink
Named after the great river “Selenge”, all natural Selenge sparkling soft
drink is unique for its infusion of all natural ingredients and natural
artesian water. Containing only natural ingredients such as Eglantine and
various indigenous roots, which are known for its refreshing effects.
Available in 1.5 L PET Packaging. "True Taste of Nature"
APU
Soft
Drink
Named after the great river “Terelj”, all natural Terelj sparkling soft drink
is unique for its infusion of all natural ingredients and natural artesian
water. Containing only natural ingredients such as wild thyme and
Rhodiola roots, which are known for rejuvenating and stimulating body
and soul. Available in 1.5 л PET Packaging. "True Taste of Nature"
APU
Soft
Drink
Mongolian first ever carbonated water "Orgiluun" means "Sparkling" and
it expresses itself refreshing, dynamic and bubbly feeling for consumers'
thirst-quenching. Orgiluun can be a great alternative to sugary beverages
and offers natural fruit flavor in every sip. Orgiluun classic is a zero-calorie
drink to stay hydrated, no contained sugar and flavor, which quenches
your thirst with only fine bubbles. Orgiluun flavored sparkling waters are
made with natural fruit essences that more sweet and fragrant to drink. It
is a perfect alternative for those seeking various flavorful beverages yet
delicious and refreshing. Each of Orgiluun flavored sparkling water offers
a burst of aromatic fruit flavor: "Bubble your life!"
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ENTITY DIVISION BRAND DESCRIPTION
Heineken
(APB-
Sprit BB)
Beer
Heineken
(APB-
Sprit BB)
Beer
Heineken
(APB-
Sprit BB)
Beer
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ENTITY DIVISION BRAND DESCRIPTION
Heineken
(APB-
Sprit BB)
Beer
Heineken
(APB-
Sprit BB)
Beer
Heineken
(APB-
Sprit BB)
Beer
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ENTITY DIVISION BRAND DESCRIPTION
Heineken
(APB-
Sprit BB)
Vodka
Heineken
(APB-
Sprit BB)
Vodka
Heineken
(APB-
Sprit BB)
Vodka
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ENTITY DIVISION BRAND DESCRIPTION
Heineken
(APB-
Sprit BB)
Vodka
Heineken
(APB-
Sprit BB)
Vodka
Heineken
(APB-
Sprit BB)
Vodka
2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | Page 37 of 44
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ENTITY DIVISION BRAND DESCRIPTION
Heineken
(APB-
Sprit BB)
All
Heineken
(APB-
Sprit BB)
Vodka
2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | Page 38 of 44
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Appendix II: Ownership and Affiliates
2015-2016 APU JSC SHAREHOLDER INFORMATION
• Tuul Internationaal Co., Ltd21 (Immediate Parent Company)
• WIT Alliance Ltd (BVI) (Shareholder)
• Zennor International Ltd (BVI) (Shareholder)
• Golomt Bank LLC (Shareholder (under REPO)
APU Company Shareholders22 Shares PerCentage
Tuul International Ltd. 384,231,000 51.722%
Wit alliance limited 149,266,000 20.093%
Golomt bank Ltd. 147,890,867 19.908%
Three Entities Control 681,387,867 91.723%
Total Shares Issued 742,877,000 100.000%
SUBSIDIARY
• Grand LLC (Subsidiary)
• Chinggis Khan International Limited (Subsidiary)
ASSOCIATED COMPANIES AND OTHERS (*)
APU Trading LLC (Associated company and Exclusive distributor of APU brand products)
Depod LLC (Associated Company)
Shunkhlai Group LLC (Associated company)
Shunkhlai Trading LLC (Associated company)
Shunkhlai Petroleum LLC (Associated company)
Shunkhlai LLC (Associated company)
Hyundai Motors Mongolia LLC (Associated company)
Kia Motors Mongolia LLC (Associated company)
Media Group LLC (Associated company)
Public Media LLC (Associated company)
Amilan E LLC (Associated company)
NTV Broadcasting LLC (Associated company)
GSB Mining LLC (Associated company)
Power Unit LLC (Associated company)
Suntrans Logistics LLC (Associated company)
Suntrans LLC (Associated company)
International Medical Center LLC (Associated company)
Capital Group LLC (Associated company)
UB Spirit LLC (Associated company)
GSB Capital LLC (Associated company)
Skytel LLC (Associated company)
Natur Agro LLC (Associated company)
Wan Trade LLC (Associated company)
Great Empire LLC (Associated company)
Skymedia Corporation LLC (Associated company)
S Development LLC (Associated company)
Mongol Daatgal LLC (Associated company)
Chinggis Khan Bank LLC (Associated company)
Blue Sky Cashmere LLC (Associated company)
21 Tuul International Co., Ltd. Is a Mongolian-Hong Kong Joint Venture. Government of Mongolia auctioned GoM’s
51% remaining stake in APU. Tuul International Co., Ltd. submitted the successful tender and became the
majority owner. (Ref: decree 663 of the State Property Committee on November 29th of 2001) (APU JSC, n.d.)
22 Major Shareholders at November 2017. (APU JSC, n.d.)
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Appendix III: APU Timeline
APU TIMELINE23
1924
What is now called APU Company, was established as the first alcohol distillery
in Mongolia.
1927
The company ventured into beer production with guidance from expert brewers
from Czechoslovakia.
1958
A fully mechanized line was installed at the plant, raising production capacity
to 3000 bottles per hour.
1961
New bottling facilities were installed and the plant began producing soft drinks
and bottled mineral water sourced from Janchivlan Spa.
1971
To commemorate the 50th anniversary of the People’s Revolution, the factory
was awarded the State Honorary Certificate, for outstanding management of
production, and service delivery.
1972
Construction of the new integrated vodka and beer plant was completed. To
celebrate, the “Niislel” beer brand was launched, a refreshing new lager beer.
1973
The plant was officially named “Vodka and Beer Plant of Ulaanbaatar” by the
Council of Ministers of the People’s Republic of Mongolia.
1981
The plant received numerous awards recognising the quality of both its
products and business conduct. To commemorate the first Mongolian in space,
APU Company launched a new premium vodka “Bolor”.
1992
The company was partially privatized, and the name “APU” was formally
adopted (reflecting the Mongolian name “Spirits Beer Beverages”).
2001
The State sold its remaining shares in APU, transferring the company to full
private ownership. Shunkhlai Group became the majority shareholder.
2003
A major equipment update program was completed, raising the brewery’s
annual production capacity to 20 million liters, and placing APU at the leading
edge of beer production. Two new premium beer brands “Khar Khorum” and
“Altan Gobi”, and a new vodka brand “Eruul“ were launched.
2004
The installation of state-of-the-art bottling equipment at the distillery raised
soft drink and water production capacity to 5 million liters per year.
2006
APU Company enters the dairy business, introducing the “Tsever Suu” (Pure
Milk) dairy brand to Mongolian consumers.
2007
“Soyombo” super-premium vodka brand was launched, adding the first alpha
spirit to APU Company’s portfolio.
2009
The construction of a new automated distillery, capable of producing 15,000
liters of premium-grade spirit a day, was completed. In order to fulfill the
growing demand for juices, APU Company launched “Frutta” juice brand to
Mongolian consumers. “Fusion” beer brand was also introduced to the
Mongolian market.
2013
The construction of a new, leading-edge brewery facility was completed in just
15 months, and the fully automated APU Logistics Center began operations,
setting APU Company’s logistics and warehousing facilities at the forefront of
global standards. “Orgiluun”, the first carbonated water to be sourced and
produced in Mongolia was launched, and the “Borgio” beer brand was updated
and refreshed.
2014
A dedicated dairy plant opened at APU Company’s premises, setting a new
standard of excellence for the Mongolian dairy market. APU celebrated its 90th
Anniversary.
2016
The “New Wave” brand program is launched, introduc-ing to the market brands
such as Bliss (fruit flavored beer), vodkas including VELVET, EDEN, ARKHI
EXPORT /40 years/, Taiga /4 types/ and Okhi.
23 APU Company: 2016 Annual Report. (APU JSC, 2017)
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APU TIMELINE23
2017
HEINEKEN has entered into agreements to merge its businesses in Mongolia
with APU JSC, the country’s leading beverages producer which Shunkhlai
Group (SG) is the largest shareholder. HEINEKEN will contribute its interests
in its Mongolian beer and vodka businesses – MBC - into a holding company
Evergreen Investments LLC (Evergreen), which will then merge with APU JSC.
As part of the transaction, SG will also contribute its existing beer and vodka
interests held outside of APU JSC into Evergreen. Post transaction, HEINEKEN
will hold 25% in APU JSC, with SG retaining majority ownership. The proposed
merger is subject to approval by APU JSC’s shareholders as well as regulatory
agencies. Completion is expected to take place in Quarter 4, 2017. (APU JSC,
n.d.)
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Appendix IV: Miscellaneous
2017 Extraordinary General meeting (APU JSC, n.d.)
The Extraordinary General Meeting of APU JSC started at 2:00PM on 18 August 2017 in
Culture Palace of Khan-Uul District, Ulaanbaatar.
Attendance:
Ms. Uranbaigali O., Head of Attendance Recording Committee, presented the Resolution
of the Committee:
This is to inform the Shareholders and the Chairperson of the Meeting that the
Extraordinary General Meeting of APU JSC is attended by 109 shareholders who hold
705,777,364 ordinary shares, which is 95.16% of the total 741,670,190 ordinary shares
with voting rights. Thus, the Extraordinary General Meeting is considered as valid, based
on the Clause 69.1, Article 69 of the Company Law.
The Meeting Agenda:
To approve restructuring of APU JSC through segregation and establishing of a
subsidiary company;
To approve restructuring of APU JSC through consolidating Evergreen Investments LLC,
to approve the restructuring project of the consolidation (hereinafter referred to as
consolidation project) and to approve the consolidation agreement;
To issue private placement in relation with consolidation of Evergreen Investments LLC
to APU JSC;
To disallow preferred right to purchase the private placement to be issued in relation
with consolidation of Evergreen Investments LLC to APU JSC;
To approve amendment to the Charter of APU JSC.
The Meeting Resolution:
Mr. Erdenebileg Ts., Chairperson of the Meeting: Based on the Resolution of the
Attendance Recording Committee, the Extraordinary General Meeting dated 18 August
2017 discussed and resolved the followings:
Restructuring of APU JSC through segregation and establishment of new subsidiary
company are approved, whereas:
Restructuring of APU LLC through consolidating Evergreen Investments LLC is approved
and in relation with that process, the followings are approved:
Board of Directors of APU JSC is approved to restructure APU JSC through segregation
with following terms and to establish a new subsidiary company, whereas:
To establish a Limited Liability Company named “APU DAIRY”;
To approve starting balance and shared capital of “APU DAIRY” LLC as MNT
54,619,000,000 (fifty-four billion six hundred and nineteen thousand tugrugs) which
consists of 546,190,000 (five hundred forty-six million one hundred and ninety
thousand) pieces of ordinary shares with a nominal value of MNT 100 (one hundred
tugrugs) each;
To let APU JSC 100% owns the total ordinary shares issued by APU DAIRY LLC;
To let APU DAIRY LLC run the following operations without time limit;
To approve APU DIARY (sic) LLC run operations with a legal address at #33/5, Chinggis
Avenue, 1st Khoroo, Khan-Uul District, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia;
To approve the first Charter to establish APU DIARY LLC as per Appendix 1 and to make
further amendments to the Charter.
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Restructuring terms and conditions via segregating APU JSC are approved as per
Appendix 2.
Board of Directors of APU JSC is approved to segregate MNT 54,619,000,000 (fifty-four
billion six hundred and nineteen thousand tugrugs) from APU JSC balance and transfer
to APU DIARY LLC balance.
It is mentioned that no changes will be made to the quantity of overall shared capital of
APU JSC nor nominal value or quantity of the Company’s total issued shares in relation
with segregation of asset from balance of APU JSC.
Board of Directors of APU JSC is authorized to appoint a committee to implement the
segregation terms and procedures and to resolve any issues which may be raised in
relation with implementation of and the resolution.
Board of Directors of APU JSC is authorized to hold rights and duties of shareholders
and general meeting of APU DAIRY LLC and to establish APU DAIRY LLC.
Chief Executive Officer Mr. Erdenebileg Ts. is obliged to notice, in accordance with the
relevant procedures, and obtain permission from Financial Regulatory Commission and
Stock Exchange about the restructuring of APU JSC through segregation and
establishment of a subsidiary company, and to register relevant amendments to the
General Authority for Intellectual Property and State Registration of Mongolia, and other
actions if necessary.
Restructuring of APU JSC through consolidating Evergreen Investments LLC is approved
as well as the following related issues:
To approve restructuring of APU JSC through consolidating Evergreen Investments LLC,
to terminate activities of Evergreen Investments LLC while rights, duties and
responsibilities of which shall be transferred to APU JSC under consolidation.
To approve the project to restructure APU JSC through consolidating Evergreen
Investments LLC (hereinafter referred to as “consolidation project”) as per Appendix 1
and the Consolidation Agreement to be made by and between APU JSC and Evergreen
Investments LLC as per Appendix 2 respectively. This major deal, which also has conflict
of interest, is hereby approved.
In relation with approval of the restructuring of APU JSC through consolidating
Evergreen Investments LLC, it’s approved to increase shared capital of APU JSC by MNT
32,130,455.30 and issue the private placement from APU JSC with the terms, price and
quantity shown below: of which: 1) Share type: ordinary; 2) Quantity: 321,304,553
pieces; 3) Unit share value: MNT 1,052.35; 4) Nominal stock value: MNT0.10.
It is authorized to convert 338,127,000 shares of Evergreen Investments LLC with
nominal value of MNT 1,000 each into 321,304,553 ordinary shares of APU JSC with
nominal value of MNT 0.10 and let the current shareholders of Evergreen Investments
LLC possess the private placement, issued by APU JSC, as followings, which is based on
a pro-rata basis with number of shares they possess in Evergreen Investments LLC:
No. Shareholders
Number of
shares
Unit price
of shares
Share capital
Percentage in the
shared capital
1
Heineken Asia Pacific
Pty.Ltd
266,091,981 MNT 0.10
MNT
26,609,198.10
25.00%
2
Mongolian Beverage
Investments LLC
55,212,572 MNT 0.10
MNT
5,521,257.20
5.19%
Total 321,304,553 MNT 0.10 321,304,553 30.19%
It is resolved that current shareholders of APU JSC shall not have a preferred right to
purchase the shares offered by APU JSC as a private placement in relation with
consolidation of Evergreen Investments LLC to APU JSC.
It is resolved that the amendment to the Charter of APU JSC is approved as per Appendix
3.
Board of Directors is authorized to appoint a committee which shall implement the terms
and conditions to consolidate Evergreen Investments LLC into APU JSC, to approve a
procedure to exercise shareholders’ claim in relation with the restructuring through
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consolidation and completion of the major deal, to approve buy-back price of the shares,
to implement this resolution and settle any issues which may raise in relation with the
resolution.
Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Erdenebileg Ts., is authorized to sign on behalf of APU JSC
on the Consolidation Agreement to be made by and between APU JSC and Evergreen
Investments LLC.
Chief Executive Officer Mr. Erdenebileg Ts. is obliged to notice, in accordance with
relevant procedures, and obtain permission from Mongolian Stock Exchange and
Financial Regulatory Commission about the restructuring of APU JSC through
consolidating Evergreen Investments LLC, and to make relevant amendments to stock
exchange, and other actions if necessary.
Chief Executive Officer Mr. Erdenebileg Ts. is obliged to register amendment to the
Company’s Charter to the General Authority for Intellectual Property and State
Registration and take other actions if necessary, after Financial Regulatory Commission
has authorized the decision to restructure APU JSC through consolidating Evergreen
Investments LLC and to register private placement of APU JSC and the private placement
has been registered. The Extraordinary General Meeting is closed at 04:45PM.
Equity Valuation 2017‐11‐27_APU‐Combined‐MonteCarloEquity Financial Statement Review
1,343,429,346
1,300,748,011
1,260,935,904
1,223,771,319
1,189,051,417
1,156,590,490
1,126,218,400
1,097,779,162
1,071,129,673
1,262.41
1,222.30
1,184.89
1,149.96 1,117.34 1,086.84 1,058.30 1,031.57 1,006.53
0.00
200.00
400.00
600.00
800.00
1,000.00
1,200.00
1,400.00
0
200,000,000
400,000,000
600,000,000
800,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,200,000,000
1,400,000,000
1,600,000,000
12.14% 12.90% 13.66% 14.42% 15.18% 15.94% 16.70% 17.46% 18.21%
₮MNT Per Share; 1,000 Units | 1,064,182 Shares
APU Company NPV FCFE 1,000 ₮MNT
WACC
APU Company DCF NPV 1,000 ₮MNT Varying WACC: 
Static Model 
999,426,210
1,032,180,890
1,067,340,383
1,105,078,024
1,145,578,471
1,189,038,349
1,235,666,922
1,285,686,795
1,339,334,653
1,396,862,032
1,458,536,124
939.15 969.931,002.971,038.431,076.491,117.33
1,161.14
1,208.15
1,258.56
1,312.62
1,370.57
0.00
200.00
400.00
600.00
800.00
1,000.00
1,200.00
1,400.00
1,600.00
0
200,000,000
400,000,000
600,000,000
800,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,200,000,000
1,400,000,000
1,600,000,000
₮MNT Per Share; 1,000 Units | 1,064,182 Shares
APU Company NPV FCFE 1,000 ₮MNT
Growth Rate
APU Company DCF NPV 1,000 ₮MNT Varying Growth: 
Static Model 
Beharry, Lyndon Martin W.  2017‐11‐27_APU‐Combined‐MonteCarloEquity|Graphics 11/29/2017 10:27 Page 1 of 1
Equity Valuation 2017‐11‐27_APU‐Combined‐MonteCarloEquity Financial Statement Review
APU Company Monte Carlo Simulation: Valuation Per Share Mask Monetary Values In 1,000 ₮MNT (Except Per Share Values).
1,000 ₮MNT Revenue Growth Rate2018 Revenue Growth Rate2019 Revenue Growth Rate2020 Revenue Growth Rate2021 Revenue Growth Rate2022 Revenue Growth Rate2023 Revenue Growth Rate2024 Revenue Growth Rate2025 Revenue Growth Rate2026 Revenue Growth Rate2027 Revenue Growth Rate2028
Projection Base [FY] Year T0  2017 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Mean STDEV 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
7.000% 0.700% Random Growth Rate 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Sequential Reduction 0.200% PERPETUITY
Timet0 Timet+1 Timet+2 Timet+3 Timet+4 Timet+5 Timet+6 Timet+7 Timet+8 Timet+9 Timet+10 Timet+11
Projection TimeT1 
773,992,303 Monte Carlo Revenue 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303
CoGS : f(Revenue)2018 CoGS : f(Revenue)2019 CoGS : f(Revenue)2020 CoGS : f(Revenue)2021 CoGS : f(Revenue)2022 CoGS : f(Revenue)2023 CoGS : f(Revenue)2024 CoGS : f(Revenue)2025 CoGS : f(Revenue)2026 CoGS : f(Revenue)2027 CoGS : f(Revenue)2028
67.000% 6.700% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000%
CoGS: 67.00% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Depreciation/Amortization [COGs] : f(Revenue)2018 Depreciation/Amortization [COGs] : f(Revenue)2019 Depreciation/Amortization [COGs] : f(Revenue)2020 Depreciation/Amortization [COGs] : f(Revenue)2021 Depreciation/Amortization [COGs] : f(Revenue)2022 Depreciation/Amortization [COGs] : f(Revenue)2023 Depreciation/Amortization [COGs] : f(Revenue)2024 Depreciation/Amortization [COGs] : f(Revenue)2025 Depreciation/Amortization [COGs] : f(Revenue)2026 Depreciation/Amortization [COGs] : f(Revenue)2027 Depreciation/Amortization [COGs] : f(Revenue)2028
8.000% 0.800% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000%
D&A (Production): 8.00% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
GROSS MARGIN 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303
SGA (Only) : f(Revenue)2018 SGA (Only) : f(Revenue)2019 SGA (Only) : f(Revenue)2020 SGA (Only) : f(Revenue)2021 SGA (Only) : f(Revenue)2022 SGA (Only) : f(Revenue)2023 SGA (Only) : f(Revenue)2024 SGA (Only) : f(Revenue)2025 SGA (Only) : f(Revenue)2026 SGA (Only) : f(Revenue)2027 SGA (Only) : f(Revenue)2028
13.843% 1.384% Administrative Costs: 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000%
SGA: 13.84% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
R&D : f(Revenue)2018 R&D : f(Revenue)2019 R&D : f(Revenue)2020 R&D : f(Revenue)2021 R&D : f(Revenue)2022 R&D : f(Revenue)2023 R&D : f(Revenue)2024 R&D : f(Revenue)2025 R&D : f(Revenue)2026 R&D : f(Revenue)2027 R&D : f(Revenue)2028
0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000%
R&D: 0.00% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Depreciation / Amortization: (SGA)2018 Depreciation / Amortization: (SGA)2019 Depreciation / Amortization: (SGA)2020 Depreciation / Amortization: (SGA)2021 Depreciation / Amortization: (SGA)2022 Depreciation / Amortization: (SGA)2023 Depreciation / Amortization: (SGA)2024 Depreciation / Amortization: (SGA)2025 Depreciation / Amortization: (SGA)2026 Depreciation / Amortization: (SGA)2027 Depreciation / Amortization: (SGA)2028
0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000%
D&A (SGA): 0.00% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Admin Expenses: 0.00% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other Expense (Income)/Overhead : f(Revenue)2018 Other Expense (Income)/Overhead : f(Revenue)2019 Other Expense (Income)/Overhead : f(Revenue)2020 Other Expense (Income)/Overhead : f(Revenue)2021 Other Expense (Income)/Overhead : f(Revenue)2022 Other Expense (Income)/Overhead : f(Revenue)2023 Other Expense (Income)/Overhead : f(Revenue)2024 Other Expense (Income)/Overhead : f(Revenue)2025 Other Expense (Income)/Overhead : f(Revenue)2026 Other Expense (Income)/Overhead : f(Revenue)2027 Other Expense (Income)/Overhead : f(Revenue)2028
3.000% 0.300% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000%
OTHER: 3.00% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
EBIT 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303
Interest Expense (Income) : f(Revenue)2018 Interest Expense (Income) : f(Revenue)2019 Interest Expense (Income) : f(Revenue)2020 Interest Expense (Income) : f(Revenue)2021 Interest Expense (Income) : f(Revenue)2022 Interest Expense (Income) : f(Revenue)2023 Interest Expense (Income) : f(Revenue)2024 Interest Expense (Income) : f(Revenue)2025 Interest Expense (Income) : f(Revenue)2026 Interest Expense (Income) : f(Revenue)2027 Interest Expense (Income) : f(Revenue)2028
0.926% 0.093% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000%
Interest Inc./(Exp.): 0.93% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
EBT 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303
Tax Rate : f(EBT)2018 Tax Rate : f(EBT)2019 Tax Rate : f(EBT)2020 Tax Rate : f(EBT)2021 Tax Rate : f(EBT)2022 Tax Rate : f(EBT)2023 Tax Rate : f(EBT)2024 Tax Rate : f(EBT)2025 Tax Rate : f(EBT)2026 Tax Rate : f(EBT)2027 Tax Rate : f(EBT)2028
24.500% 2.450% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000%
Taxes: 24.50% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tax Payable Tax Payable Tax Payable Tax Payable Tax Payable Tax Payable Tax Payable Tax Payable Tax Payable Tax Payable Tax Payable
Net Earnings 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303
D&A AddBack: 8.00% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Capital Expenditures : f(Revenue)2018 Capital Expenditures : f(Revenue)2019 Capital Expenditures : f(Revenue)2020 Capital Expenditures : f(Revenue)2021 Capital Expenditures : f(Revenue)2022 Capital Expenditures : f(Revenue)2023 Capital Expenditures : f(Revenue)2024 Capital Expenditures : f(Revenue)2025 Capital Expenditures : f(Revenue)2026 Capital Expenditures : f(Revenue)2027 Capital Expenditures : f(Revenue)2028
5.000% 0.500% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000%
CAP EX: 5.00% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Working Capital : f(Revenue)2018 Working Capital : f(Revenue)2019 Working Capital : f(Revenue)2020 Working Capital : f(Revenue)2021 Working Capital : f(Revenue)2022 Working Capital : f(Revenue)2023 Working Capital : f(Revenue)2024 Working Capital : f(Revenue)2025 Working Capital : f(Revenue)2026 Working Capital : f(Revenue)2027 Working Capital : f(Revenue)2028
0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000%
WRK CAP: 0.00% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Equity Minority Interest : f(Revenue)2018 Equity Minority Interest : f(Revenue)2019 Equity Minority Interest : f(Revenue)2020 Equity Minority Interest : f(Revenue)2021 Equity Minority Interest : f(Revenue)2022 Equity Minority Interest : f(Revenue)2023 Equity Minority Interest : f(Revenue)2024 Equity Minority Interest : f(Revenue)2025 Equity Minority Interest : f(Revenue)2026 Equity Minority Interest : f(Revenue)2027 Equity Minority Interest : f(Revenue)2028
0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000%
EARN AFFL: 0.00% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
‐142,857,185 LESS DEBT AND OTHER LONG-TERM LIABILITIES T0
0 LESS PREFERRED AT PAR T0
637,405,000 EXCESS CASH, SHORT-TERM SECURITIES AND FIRE SALE ASSETS T0
PERPETUITY VALUE
FCF to Investor 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 8,436,170,575
WACC FOR SIMULATION
15.179% 0.304% To assess liquidity at T0, DCF analysis will deduct Balance Sheet Liabilities from Cash + Short‐term securities +100.00% of all other assets.
0.000% DCF to the Investors 17,444,633,727 DCF analysis will deduct the total value of liabilities from the firm's cash position.
APU Company Monte Carlo Simulation: Valuation Per Share PER SHARE
Beharry, Lyndon Martin W.  2017‐11‐27_APU‐Combined‐MonteCarloEquity|DCF All Variable_MC 11/29/2017 10:24 Page 1 of 3
Equity Valuation 2017‐11‐27_APU‐Combined‐MonteCarloEquity Financial Statement Review
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
7.00% 6.80% 6.60% 6.40% 6.20% 6.00% 5.80% 5.60% 5.40% 5.20% 5.00%
PERPETUITY
Timet+1 Timet+2 Timet+3 Timet+4 Timet+5 Timet+6 Timet+7 Timet+8 Timet+9 Timet+10 Timet+11
Projected Revenue 773,992,303 826,623,780 881,180,949 937,576,530 995,706,275 1,055,448,652 1,116,664,673 1,179,197,895 1,242,874,581 1,307,504,060 1,372,879,263
CoGS: 67.00% ‐518,574,843 ‐553,837,933 ‐590,391,236 ‐628,176,275 ‐667,123,204 ‐707,150,597 ‐748,165,331 ‐790,062,590 ‐832,725,970 ‐876,027,720 ‐919,829,106
D&A (Production): 8.00% ‐61,919,384 ‐66,129,902 ‐70,494,476 ‐75,006,122 ‐79,656,502 ‐84,435,892 ‐89,333,174 ‐94,335,832 ‐99,429,967 ‐104,600,325 ‐109,830,341
GROSS MARGIN 193,498,076 206,655,945 220,295,237 234,394,133 248,926,569 263,862,163 279,166,168 294,799,474 310,718,645 326,876,015 343,219,816
Administrative Costs:
SGA: 13.84% ‐107,143,048 ‐114,428,776 ‐121,981,075 ‐129,787,864 ‐137,834,711 ‐146,104,794 ‐154,578,872 ‐163,235,289 ‐172,049,994 ‐180,996,594 ‐190,046,424
R&D: 0.00% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
D&A (SGA): 0.00% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Admin Expenses: 13.84% ‐107,143,048 ‐114,428,776 ‐121,981,075 ‐129,787,864 ‐137,834,711 ‐146,104,794 ‐154,578,872 ‐163,235,289 ‐172,049,994 ‐180,996,594 ‐190,046,424
OTHER: 3.00% ‐23,219,769 ‐24,798,713 ‐26,435,428 ‐28,127,296 ‐29,871,188 ‐31,663,460 ‐33,499,940 ‐35,375,937 ‐37,286,237 ‐39,225,122 ‐41,186,378
EBIT 63,135,258 67,428,456 71,878,734 76,478,973 81,220,669 86,093,909 91,087,356 96,188,248 101,382,414 106,654,299 111,987,014
Interest Inc./(Exp.): 0.93% ‐7,167,900 ‐7,655,318 ‐8,160,568 ‐8,682,845 ‐9,221,181 ‐9,774,452 ‐10,341,370 ‐10,920,487 ‐11,510,193 ‐12,108,723 ‐12,714,160
EBT 55,967,358 59,773,138 63,718,166 67,796,128 71,999,488 76,319,457 80,745,986 85,267,761 89,872,220 94,545,576 99,272,854
Taxes: 24.50% ‐13,712,003 ‐14,644,419 ‐15,610,951 ‐16,610,051 ‐17,639,875 ‐18,698,267 ‐19,782,767 ‐20,890,601 ‐22,018,694 ‐23,163,666 ‐24,321,849
Tax Payable Tax Payable Tax Payable Tax Payable Tax Payable Tax Payable Tax Payable Tax Payable Tax Payable Tax Payable Tax Payable
Net Earnings 42,255,355 45,128,719 48,107,215 51,186,077 54,359,613 57,621,190 60,963,219 64,377,160 67,853,526 71,381,910 74,951,005
D&A AddBack: 8.00% 61,919,384 66,129,902 70,494,476 75,006,122 79,656,502 84,435,892 89,333,174 94,335,832 99,429,967 104,600,325 109,830,341
Capital Expenditures: 5.00% ‐38,699,615 ‐41,331,189 ‐44,059,047 ‐46,878,827 ‐49,785,314 ‐52,772,433 ‐55,833,234 ‐58,959,895 ‐62,143,729 ‐65,375,203 ‐68,643,963
Working Capital Change: 0.00% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Earnings in Affiliates:
0 00%
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
‐142,857,185 LESS DEBT AND OTHER LONG-TERM LIABILITIES T0
0 LESS PREFERRED AT PAR T0
637,405,000 EXCESS CASH AND SHORT-TERM SECURITIES T0
PERPETUITY VALUE
65,475,124 69,927,433 74,542,643 79,313,373 84,230,802 89,284,650 94,463,160 99,753,096 105,139,764 110,607,031 1,205,567,264
To assess liquidity at T0, DCF analysis will deduct Balance Sheet Liabilities from Cash + Short‐term securities +100.0
Static Model 1,156,196,225 DCF DCF analysis will deduct the total value of liabilities from the firm's cash position.
1,086.465 PER SHARE
WACC 15.179%
Incremental Change 2.500%
WACC 0.000% 2.500% 5.000% 7.500% 10.000% 12.500% 15.000% 17.500% 20.000% Standard  : 2.500%
Alternate WACC 12.143% 12.902% 13.661% 14.420% 15.179% 15.938% 16.697% 17.456% 18.215% Alternate: Yes
APU Company NPV FCFE 1,000 ₮MNT 1,300,523,704.308 1,260,651,732.621 1,223,442,334.240 1,188,690,453.621 1,156,208,452.976 1,125,824,511.960 1,097,381,184.670 1,070,734,097.523 1,045,750,773.410
Alt   f(WACC):  5.000%
Shares Out (Inc Treasury) 1,064,181.775 1,064,181.775 1,064,181.775 1,064,181.775 1,064,181.775 1,064,181.775 1,064,181.775 1,064,181.775 1,064,181.775
1,222.09 1,184.62 1,149.66 1,117.00 1,086.48 1,057.93 1,031.20 1,006.16 982.68
1,000
APU Company DCF NPV 1,000 ₮MNT Varying WACC: Static Model  APU Company DCF NPV 1,000 ₮MNT Varying Growth: Sta
WACC APU Compa ₮MNT Per Share; 1,000 Units | 1,064,182 Shares Growth RatAPU Compa ₮MNT Per Share; 1,000 Units | 1,0
12.143% 1,300,523,704.308 1,222.088 1 0.02 999,426,210 939.150
12.902% 1,260,651,732.621 1,184.621 2 0.03 1,032,180,890 969.929
13.661% 1,223,442,334.240 1,149.655 3 0.04 1,067,340,383 1,002.968
14.420% 1,188,690,453.621 1,116.999 4 0.05 1,105,078,024 1,038.430
15.179% 1,156,208,452.976 1,086.476 5 0.06 1,145,578,471 1,076.488
15.938% 1,125,824,511.960 1,057.925 6 0.07 1,189,038,349 1,117.326
16.697% 1,097,381,184.670 1,031.197 7 0.08 1,235,666,922 1,161.143
17.456% 1,070,734,097.523 1,006.157 8 0.09 1,285,686,795 1,208.146
18.215% 1,045,750,773.410 982.681 9 0.1 1,339,334,653 1,258.558
10 0.11 1,396,862,032 1,312.616
11 0.12 1,458,536,124 1,370.570
Beharry, Lyndon Martin W.  2017‐11‐27_APU‐Combined‐MonteCarloEquity|DCF All Variable_MC 11/29/2017 10:24 Page 2 of 3
Equity Valuation 2017‐11‐27_APU‐Combined‐MonteCarloEquity Financial Statement Review
APU Company Monte Carlo Simulation: Valuation Per Share
Forecast Name ation Per Share 17.83
Trials 250,000 30.66
Mean 1,142.38
Median 1,141.00
Mode ‐‐‐
Standard Deviation 192.68
Variance 37,123.74
Skewness 0.0192
Kurtosis 3.07
Coeff. of Variation 0.1687
Minimum 74.03
Maximum 2,034.83
Mean Std. Error 0.3854
0% 74.03
10% 897.72
20% 980.78
30% 1,040.99
40% 1,092.42
50% 1,141.00
60% 1,189.92
70% 1,242.44
80% 1,303.88
90% 1,389.65
100% 2,034.83
Fit Distribution Name Lognormal
Fit: Location ‐30,333.351
Fit: Mean 1,142.379
Fit: Std. Dev. 192.675
Fit: Beta 4.402033854
Monte Carlo Projections: Sensitivity to Variables (Variance Calculation)
17.83
30.66
00% of all other assets. Sensitivity Analysis: Tornado Chart
17.83
30.66
atic Model 
064,182 Shares
Beharry, Lyndon Martin W.  2017‐11‐27_APU‐Combined‐MonteCarloEquity|DCF All Variable_MC 11/29/2017 10:24 Page 3 of 3
Equity Valuation 2017‐11‐27_APU‐Combined‐MonteCarloEquity Financial Statement Review
Variables Monetary Values In 1,000 ₮MNT (Except Per Share Values).
APU Company Currency  ₮MNT Note: This sheet carries decimals to 3 places: 0.000 .
User may vary input into shaded cells. Complete the IncStmntReview and BalShtReview worksheets, complete this page; then run your simulation here.
The most recent FY end (type year): 2017 Adjust Base Year for TTM Estimate Yes
Calculate Statistics through FY: 2017
Mean Historical Alternate 10.000% Coefficient of Variation Target Cut-off
Variables Estimate STDEV Rate
Revenue Growth Rate 2.745% 3.189% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=116.17% Use an alternate rate.
Alternative Revenue Growth RateDCF 7.00000% 0.700% 0.00% Reduce sequential growth Monte Carlo DCF:  ₮MNT APU Company
Projected Growth Rate Y1     7.000% 0.700% Use Alternate Rates: Yes 7.000% 0.700%
AGGR
CoGS : f(Revenue) 69.050% 2.604% 67.000% 69.002%
Depreciation/Amortization [COGs] : f(Revenue) 8.661% 2.528% 8.000% 8.702% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=29.18% Use an alternate rate.
SGA (Only) : f(Revenue) 13.843% 13.843%
R&D : f(Revenue) 0.000% 0.000% 0.000%
Depreciation / Amortization: (SGA) 0.000% 0.000%
Total Administrative Overhead : f(Revenue) 13.842% 0.104% 0.000% 13.843%
Other Expense (Income)/Overhead : f(Revenue) 3.000% 3.275%
Interest Expense (Income) : f(Revenue) 0.926% 0.926% 0.926%
Tax Rate : f(EBT) 24.611% 6.696% 24.500% 24.842% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=27.21% Use an alternate rate.
Capital Expenditures : f(Revenue) 4.866% 12.968% 5.000% 15.866% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=266.52% Use an alternate rate.
Working Capital : f(Revenue) 5.863% 6.122% 0.000% 10.662% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=104.42% Use an alternate rate.
 Working Capital : f(Revenue) 3.380% 6.756% 0.000% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=199.87% Use an alternate rate.
Equity Minority Interest : f(Revenue) 0.000% 0.000% 0.000%
Financial Ratios | FY 2017
Current 2.74409265
Acid Test 1.04645559 Yes Include Accounts Receivable?
Debt:Equity 0.23142894
Debt:Debt+Equity 0.18793528
RoA (Adjusted for D&A) 0.03390123
RoE 0.04174696
Gordon Dividend Payout Model:
Book Value of the Firm ₮MNT1,000 561,088,000
Book Value Per Share BV0 527.248
Dividend Growth Rate (Gordon Model) gn 5.500%
ke = [(RoE - gn ) X (BV0 / P0)] + gn 15.196% No Actual RoE (Yes); Expected RoE (No)
P0/BV0 = PBV = [(RoE-gn)/(ke-gn) 1.49550009
Price Multiple : BV0 1.496
Forecast Share Price From Multiple X BV0 788.500
Static Model: DCF Valuation Per Share 1,117.326 Growth Rate: 7.00% less 0.00% each subsequent year after T1.
 ₮MNT 1,117.326
VARIABLES FOR WACC CALCULATIONS
Market and CAPM Modelling 12.000% Risk‐Free Rate (T‐Bill/Bond/Note, LIBOR or other imputed rate)
16.000% Overall historic Market Return
Equity Share Variables 788.500 Current Market Price of Common Stock
0.000 Dividend, if applicable
1.230  eta 
4.175% Return on Equity TTM
20.000% Expected Return on Equity
1,064,182 Current shares outstanding 1,000
Preferred Share Variables Current Market Price of Preferred Stock: A, if applicable
0 Current shares outstanding 1,000
Preferred: A stock coupon
Current Market Price of Preferred Stock: B, if applicable
0 Current shares outstanding 1,000
Preferred: B stock coupon
Current Market Price of Preferred Stock: C, if applicable
0 Current shares outstanding 1,000
Preferred: C stock coupon
Current Market Price of Preferred Stock: D, if applicable
0 Current shares outstanding 1,000
Preferred: D stock coupon
0 Weighted Number of Preferred Shares Outstanding
0.000% Weighted Cost (Coupon) of Preferred Shares Outstanding
0.000 Weighted Market Price of Preferred
Perpetuity Growth Rate Inflation Long‐term Growth Rate (for perpetuity model)
5.500% Long‐Term Inflation Rate
3.580% Average Long‐Term Inflation Rate: U.S.A.
Basis of WACC CalculationAvg (CAPM, GCALCULATE DISCOUNT RATE VARYING EQUITY WEIGHTING: WACC, CAPM, GORDON RoE, AVERAGE OF CAPM AND GORDON RoE?
Yes VARY WACC AROUND ITS MEAN?
2.000% AT THIS COEFFICIENT OF VARIATION (  PERCENT OF THE MEAN).
15.179% WACC FOR SIMULATION
ALTERNATE PLUG FOR WACC DISCOUNT FACTOR
Forecast Results Summary Per Share 660.330 P/E Valuation 30.000 PE Forward
921.923 CAPM Valuation 4.2857 Imputed or Projected PEG
788.500 BV0 Multiple Valuation
1,117.326 Static DCF Valuation
1,142.379 Monte Carlo DCF  Valuation
926.092    of All Models Valuation
Monte Carlo Analysis: 192.675 Monte Carlo DCF  2.500 
2,034.833 Monte Carlo Upper 2,034.833
74.035 Monte Carlo Lower 74.035
1,960.798 Monte Carlo Range
171.642% Range:Mean
Lognormal Distribution
Ratio Comparison of the Models P/E CAPM Gordon BV0  Static DCF MC DCF  Models
P/E 0.000% 39.615% 19.410% 69.207% 73.001% 40.247%
CAPM ‐28.375% 0.000% ‐14.472% 21.195% 23.913% 0.452%
Gordon BV0  ‐16.255% 16.921% 0.000% 41.703% 44.880% 17.450%
Static DCF ‐40.901% ‐17.488% ‐29.430% 0.000% 2.242% ‐17.115%
MC DCF ‐42.197% ‐19.298% ‐30.977% ‐2.193% 0.000% ‐18.933%
 Models ‐28.697% ‐0.450% ‐14.857% 20.650% 23.355% 0.000%
Beharry, Lyndon Martin W.  2017‐11‐27_APU‐Combined‐MonteCarloEquity|Variables 11/29/2017 10:27 Page 1 of 1
Equity Valuation 2017‐11‐27_APU‐Combined‐MonteCarloEquity Financial Statement Review
APU Company 1,000 ₮MNT
Aggregate Notes: D&A includes Amortization of acquired Intellectual Properties (i.e. Patents etc.) and D&A on PPE.
1,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Timet-12 Timet-11 Timet-10 Timet-9 Timet-8 Timet-7 Timet-6 Timet-5 Timet-4 Timet-3 Timet-2 Timet-1 Timet
OPERATING REVENUE
100.000% Revenue From Income‐Expense Worksheet 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 685,552,030 688,911,708 723,357,293
0.000%
0.000%
0.000%
0.000%
0.000%
0.000%
0.000%
0.000%
0.000%
100.000% TOTAL REVENUE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 685,552,030 688,911,708 723,357,293
PerCent Change 2.745% 0.490% 5.000%
Revenue CAGR
PRODUCTION COSTS:
0.000% CoGSIncome Statement 
77.703% CoGS from Income‐Expense Worksheet (If Applicable) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 538,710,082 532,374,146 558,992,853
D&A from Income‐Expense Worksheet (If Applicable) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 60,297,307 41,813,240 80,432,801
0.000% D&ACashFlows 
Yes Deduct D&ACashFlows from CoGSIncome Statement 
Amortization Patents Intangibles
8.702% D&A PPE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 60,297,307 41,813,240 80,432,801
69.002% CoGS [Adj for D&A, and Depletion] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 478,412,775 490,560,906 478,560,052
77.703% COST OF SALES (Incl D&A) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 538,710,082 532,374,146 558,992,853
CoGs (Adj for D&A) PerCent of Revenue 69.785% 71.208% 66.158%
22.297% GROSS MARGIN 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 146,841,948 156,537,562 164,364,440
22.288% PerCent of Revenue 21.420% 22.722% 22.722%
ADMINISTRATIVE COSTS:
0.000% SGAIncome Statement 
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 94,067,059 95,771,899 100,560,494
D&A from Income‐Expense Worksheet (If Applicable) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.000% D&ACashFlows 
No Deduct D&ACashFlows from SGAIncome Statement 
13.843% SGA [Adj for D&A] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 94,067,059 95,771,899 100,560,494
0.000% R&D
0.000% Amortization Patents Intangibles
0.000% D&A SGA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.000% Foreign Exchange Rate (Gains) / Losses
0.000% (Gain) Loss on fair value remeasurement
0.000% Restructuring / Other
13.843% TOTAL OPERATING / OVERHEAD EXPENSE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 94,067,059 95,771,899 100,560,494
Average PerCent of Revenue 13.721% 13.902% 13.902%
PerCent Change 3.406% 1.812% 5.000%
8.454% EARNINGS BEFORE EXTRAORDINARY ITEMS: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 52,774,889 60,765,663 63,803,946
Other Items from Income-Expense Worksheet 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14,218,391 26,577,664 27,906,548
3.275% Other Expense | (Income) | Royalty or Extraordinary Items
5.179% EBIT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 38,556,499 34,187,999 35,897,399
Average %Rev 5.183% 5.624% 4.963% 4.963%
PerCent Change -3.165% ‐11.330% 5.000%
INTEREST PAYMENTS
Interest Accounting from Income‐Expense Worksheet 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7,045,218 6,040,287 6,342,301
0.926% Interest Expense
Estimated Cost of Debt 13.265%
TOTAL INTEREST 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7,045,218 6,040,287 6,342,301
PerCent Change -4.632% ‐14.264% 5.000%
89,214,090 EARNINGS BEFORE TAXES 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 31,511,280 28,147,712 29,555,098
PROVISION FOR TAXES
22,162,525 10,191,733 5,839,411 6,131,382
PerCent Change -18.852% ‐42.704% 5.000%
24.842% PerCent of EBT 32.343% 20.746% 20.746%
Dividends on Preferred Stock
Extraneous Provisions
0.000% 0.000% 0.000%
3.196% NET EARNINGS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 21,319,548 22,308,301 23,423,716
PerCent Change 4.638% 5.000%
Net Earnings  CAGR or IRR
8.702% 8.702% D&A Add Back 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 60,297,307 41,813,240 80,432,801
D&A %Rev 8.795% 6.069% 11.119%
11.898% Net CashFlow to Firm 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 81,616,854 64,121,541 103,856,517
Net FCFFirm %Revenue 11.905% 9.308% 14.358%
Estimated Capital Expenditure 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 135,900,479 136,566,485 143,394,810
-7.926% Estimated Net Earnings | FCFInvestors  0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ‐54,283,625 ‐72,444,944 ‐39,538,292
Net FCFInvestors %Revenue ‐7.918% ‐10.516% ‐5.466%
CAGR or IRR Estimated Net Earnings | FCFInvestors 
Beharry, Lyndon Martin W.  2017‐11‐27_APU‐Combined‐MonteCarloEquity|IncStmntReview 11/29/2017 10:28 Page 1 of 1
Equity Valuation 2017‐11‐27_APU‐Combined‐MonteCarloEquity Financial Statement Review
Income‐Expense Worksheet
APU Company 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
1,000 ₮MNT
Revenue Worksheet 5.00%
APU‐Sales 210,111,177 208,055,308 218,458,073
Less: discounts and allowances
Hein‐APB Sales 51,846,499 62,257,890 65,370,784
SBB‐Sales 87,933,495 84,125,691 88,331,976
APU Trading 335,660,859 334,472,819 351,196,460
REVENUE CALCULATION 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 685,552,030 688,911,708 723,357,293
CoGS Worksheet
146,597,508 142,012,623 149,113,254
Hein‐APB‐CoGS ‐ All In 29,824,730 34,480,462 36,204,485
Hein‐APB‐Depreciation / Amortization Estimate (Follows APU %)
SBB ‐ CoGS ‐ All In 65,425,951 62,581,337 65,710,404
SBB ‐ Depreciation / Amortization Estimate (Follows APU %)
APU Trading All In 296,861,893 293,299,724 307,964,710
APU Trading Depreciation/Amortization (Follows APU%)
CoGS CALCULATION 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 538,710,082 532,374,146 558,992,853
COMPLEX D&A CoGS (Production Capital)
Estimated Depreciation @ +1/10 of PPE 18,933,259 0 34,948,515
Estimated Amortization @ +1/7 Goodwill and Intangibles 79,094 0 0
Hein‐APBDepreciation on PPE 4,147,720 4,980,631 5,229,663
SBB‐Depreciation on PPE 7,034,680 6,730,055 7,066,558
APU Trading Depreciation on PPE 30,102,554 30,102,554 33,188,065
TOTAL COMPLEX D&A (Posts to CoGS) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 60,297,307 41,813,240 80,432,801
COMPLEX SGA (Administrative Expense)
Sales and marketing expenses 13,365,526 16,661,966 17,495,064
General and administrative expenses 13,663,031 12,416,501 13,037,326
Hein‐APB‐Marketing and Selling Expense 5,823 0 0
Hein‐APB General / Administrative 11,158,250 13,067,614 13,720,994
SBB‐Marketing and Selling Expense 243,228 321,433 337,505
SBB‐General / Administrative 12,418,107 11,515,667 12,091,450
APU Trading Sales and Marketing 35,474,076 34,735,632 36,472,413
APU Trading General/Administrative 7,739,019 7,053,086 7,405,741
TOTAL COMPLEX SGA (Posts to Administrative Expense) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 94,067,059 95,771,899 100,560,494
COMPLEX D&A SGA (Administrative Capital)
TOTAL OTHER COMPLEX D&A SGA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTHER INCOME / (LOSS)
Rental income 559,924 527,423 553,795
Interest income 91,511 170,303 178,818
Dividend income 0 0 0
Royalty income 0 0 0
Other income 741,258 539,661 566,644
Other costs ‐4,103,979 ‐1,913,396 ‐2,009,066
Foreign exchange rate gains (losses) ‐9,489,518 ‐26,487,279 ‐27,811,643
Gains deduction of the capital account (losses) ‐513,599 2,600 2,730
Hein‐APB Gain (Loss) On Foreign Exchange Transactions ‐1,164,171 ‐796,864 ‐836,707
Hein‐APB Other Income 433,089 3,030,287 3,181,801
Hein‐APB Gain (Loss) on Disposal of PPE ‐94,575 ‐29,807 ‐31,298
SBB‐Rental Income 106,718 109,509 114,985
SBB‐Other Costs ‐281,797 ‐134,993 ‐141,743
SBB‐Gain (Loss) On Foreign Exchange Transactions ‐474,609 ‐1,581,090 ‐1,660,145
APU Trading Other Income 3,557 6,434 6,756
APU Trading Other Costs ‐32,200 ‐20,453 ‐21,476
TOTAL OTHER INCOME (LOSS) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ‐14,218,391 ‐26,577,664 ‐27,906,548
INTEREST EXPENSE
Financial expenses 6,758,814 6,079,005 6,382,955
Hein‐APB Interest Income (‐) ‐192,492 ‐214,344 ‐225,061
Hein‐APB Interest Expense (+) 379,443 133,551 140,229
SBB‐Interest Income (‐) ‐46,238 ‐100,334 ‐105,351
SBB‐Interest Expense (+) 156,254 152,157 159,765
APU Trading Interest Income ‐10,561 ‐9,749 ‐10,236
TOTAL INTEREST EXPENSE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7,045,218 6,040,287 6,342,301
Beharry, Lyndon Martin W.  2017‐11‐27_APU‐Combined‐MonteCarloEquity|Income‐Expense Worksheet 11/29/2017 10:28 Page 1 of 1
2017 12-07 apu-draft03-signed
2017 12-07 apu-draft03-signed
2017 12-07 apu-draft03-signed
2017 12-07 apu-draft03-signed
2017 12-07 apu-draft03-signed
2017 12-07 apu-draft03-signed
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2017 12-07 apu-draft03-signed

  • 1. 1 of 44 | © BEHARRY, LYNDON MARTIN W. | 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | 12/7/2017 4:40 PM Executive Summary November 28, 2017 In July 2017, Heineken Asia Pacific: Mongolia (dba Mongolian Beverage Corp.) together with Shunkhlai Group Holdings (Mongolian diversified investment firm) and APU Joint Stock Company (Mongolia’s leading beverage and dairy processor) announced plans to merge Mongolian operations into APU JSC. APU senior management outlined the merger details during a special meeting of APU shareholders (August 18, 2017). In sum, Heineken AP (MBC Brewery) and Shunkhlai Group (APU Trading Company and Sprit Bal Buram) chartered an intermediate entity: Evergreen, to hold the assets and equity of their respective interests (MBC, APU Trading and Sprit Bal Buram). This Evergreen entity would merge into APU by end of 2017 Q4. This report appraises the merger details, delivers the financial metrics, and offers a detailed Discounted Cash Flow projection and analysis of value. The matter includes a Porter Analysis, tables of financial ratios, list of assumptions, and cash flow analytics following static and Monte Carlo models. But while the analyst has endeavored to be meticulous and thorough, certain underlying information is proprietary and not publicly available. The analyst has noted each instance where he was unable to obtain original financial metrics. Digitally signed by Beharry, Lyndon Martin W. DN: cn=Beharry, Lyndon Martin W., o=LMB Enterprises, L.C., ou=Consulting, email=lmbeharry@yahoo.com, c=MN Date: 2017.12.07 16:45:49 +08'00'
  • 2. 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | Page 2 of 44 2 of 44 |© BEHARRY, LYNDON MARTIN W. | 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | 12/7/2017 4:40 PM Contents Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................1 Overview of the Merger............................................................................................................................3 Overview of the Companies Involved ..................................................................................................4 Overview: APU Joint Stock Company (Mongolia: APU).............................................................4 Overview: Sprit BalBuram (Mongolia: SBB).................................................................................4 Overview: MCS-Asia Pacific Brewery - Heineken N.V. (Netherlands)...................................4 Porter Analysis for the New Entity by Division ...............................................................................5 MBC-Sprit BalBuram ..........................................................................................................................5 APU: Dairy...............................................................................................................................................6 APU: Beer and Alcohol ........................................................................................................................6 Summary of Financial Data...................................................................................................................8 Assumptions to the Model ...................................................................................................................10 Summary of Analytical Findings........................................................................................................14 Analysis of the Data and Assumptions............................................................................................16 The Monte Carlo Discounted Cash-Flow model. ......................................................................16 The Static Model..................................................................................................................................17 Static Model Sensitivity to WACC and to Growth Rates ........................................................18 Analysis of the Static Model ............................................................................................................19 Analysis of the Monte Carlo Model................................................................................................19 Recommendations Going Forward ....................................................................................................21 Appendix I: Brands.................................................................................................................................22 Appendix II: Ownership and Affiliates..............................................................................................38 Appendix III: APU Timeline..................................................................................................................39 Appendix IV: Miscellaneous.................................................................................................................41 Bibliography..................................................................................................................................................44
  • 3. 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | Page 3 of 44 3 of 44 |© BEHARRY, LYNDON MARTIN W. | 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | 12/7/2017 4:40 PM Overview of the Merger In July 2017, Heineken Asia Pacific through its subsidiary Heineken-APB-MCS publicly announced its intent to merge its operations, along with the operations of Sprit BalBuram into APU Joint Stock Company. The parties submitted that following due diligence and review, the new entity would emerge during the fourth quarter of 2017. During its August 18 2017 Extraordinary General Meeting of Shareholders, APU JSC outlined its strategic plan for 1) Merger with the aforementioned entities; and 2) separation of APU’s dairy division through a spin-off comprising 546,190,000 common shares (par 100 MNT) inuring to and held by APU JSC – the process of which would not diminish the number of APU JSC shares authorized and outstanding amongst the instant corporate and institutional investors, and the public at large. (APU JSC, n.d.) This article aims to provide a concise overview of the parties involved in this merger transaction. Further, this summary will produce a Porter study, and projected Discounted Cash Flow valuations of value-added through the merger. Important note: Certain of the underlying data are proprietary to privately held companies: notably Sprit BalBuram and MCS-APB. So while the analyst has endeavored to thoroughly appraise relevant documents to introduce the brands’ equity, financial models, legal constraints, potential cannibalization, changes in export sales, reductions to costs of capital, and other factors; this paper is limited in its forecast because of the lack of certain information. The analyst has therefore endeavored to use best practices to back into certain underlying information and ratios. Such limitations are duly noted where they appear within this analysis.
  • 4. 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | Page 4 of 44 4 of 44 |© BEHARRY, LYNDON MARTIN W. | 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | 12/7/2017 4:40 PM Overview of the Companies Involved Overview: APU Joint Stock Company (Mongolia: APU) The Government of Mongolia (GoM) established APU in 1924 as a state-controlled entity to produce beverage products for consumption in-country, and also for potential export. Over its first few decades, the company name settled to АПУ: Архи, Пиво, Ундаа), or translated as "Vodka, Beer, Soft drinks." Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990’s, Mongolia undertook a peaceful democratic revolution and overturned its communist system. At that time, Government of Mongolia (GoM) started privatizing or partially privatizing its state-owned enterprises. In 1992, 49% of APU shares were sold off to private investors; GoM floated its 51% stake on the Mongolian Stock Exchange in 2001. In its present iteration, APU JSC boasts over 100 Stock-Keeping Units (sku) across branded vodka, beer, water and soft drinks; and since 2009, dairy. Overview: Sprit BalBuram (Mongolia: SBB) Government of Mongolia established the spirit factory in 1943. Extending its capacity in 1973 the “Sprit Bal Buram” company emerged as one of Mongolia’s leading food and beverage manufacturers. Over the years, the company has evolved to supply its premium and top-line wheat grain alcohols throughout the country. In 1998 GoM privatized Sprit Bal Buram and the MCS Group acquired the company. (Prezi.com, n.d.) After implementing its new quality management system in the 2000s, the company entered foreign markets. The company sells its “Chinggis” brand under the name of “GRANDKHAAN” in the USA, UK, Canada, South Korea, EU, Singapore and China. Chinggis (GRANDKHAAN) and other branded products have successfully participated in a number of exhibitions. In 2007, the Chinggis brand was presented with a special award at the United Vodka Competition, and it has further received a “Superior Taste” award at the International Competition organized by the International Taste and Quality Institute. (International Beverage Network, n.d.) Overview: MCS-Asia Pacific Brewery - Heineken N.V. (Netherlands) MCS Asia Pacific Brewery LLC. (dba Mongolia Beverage Corp.: MBC) operates as a subsidiary of Heineken Asia MTN Pte. Ltd. Based in Ulaanbaatar, the partners created the entity in 2007. (Bloomberg.com, n.d.) Heineken Asia Pacific (Heineken AP) acquired its present name and structure in 2013 following the merger of Asia Pacific Breweries (APB) with Joint Venture Heineken International - Fraser and Neave, Limited. At 2017, Heineken AP controls 30 breweries in 14 countries in the Asia Pacific region. The company markets over 40 beer brands and variants. Heineken International owns Heineken AP. APB managed breweries in Singapore, India, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, China, Vietnam, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, New Caledonia, Sri Lanka, Laos and Mongolia. The company retains strong market presence in several countries within the Asia Pacific Region, primarily in Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam, Cambodia, Papua New Guinea and New Zealand. (Wikipedia, n.d.)
  • 5. 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | Page 5 of 44 5 of 44 |© BEHARRY, LYNDON MARTIN W. | 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | 12/7/2017 4:40 PM Porter Analysis for the New Entity by Division MBC-Sprit BalBuram SUPPLIERS Mongolia Beverage Corp. (MBC) had been the operating company managing MCS-APB brewery and Sprit BalBuram. This entity had been sourcing grains supply from China; and certain high-profile glassware bottling from France. These cross-border transactions immediately suggest foreign exchange risk and a disjoint between product sales, whose majority is denominated in ₮MNT, and Chinese ¥Yuan-Renminbi costs for grain, and €Euro costs (albeit a small volume) for bottling. If it is the case that that the new entity retains these supply chains, the merged entity would face supply risk principally from imports of China grain. Since the early 2000s, the Chinese-Mongolian partnership has remained amicable; but with several hiccups along the way. Mongolia heavily relies upon China as the primary purchaser of a host of mineral ores, fossil fuels, and animal husbandry raw materials. But history has shown that during moments of political tension, China is quick to slow the flow at the borders. Drinkers of premium, high-value beverage are taste conscious. The quality of the grain source, its sugar content, physical chemistry of the mash mixture and a host of other issues arise directly from the grain input. From this light, certain of the merged entity’s strategic growth plans are subject to supplier power. In other words, APU may have limited power to diversify away supply source risk. BUYERS The new APU entity will face cannibalization risk among several – perhaps many of the brands, more probably on the lower, undifferentiated lines. Low-end consumers are price conscious, and during promotion periods (whether by the Entity or by a supermarket chain) buyers of low-end alcohol products are likely to purchase the least expensive offering. Buyers of premium brands are less price conscious. At the high end, taste preferences come more into play. Overall, the Entity may well see some switching of brands – particularly if the Entity changes supply source for grain inputs. Foreign buyers will certainly bear upon the new APU’s FCFI. During the past five years, Mongolia’s currency strength has fallen by about 80% vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar 1300 to 2450 (i.e. 1300-2450/1300 = 88%). During 2017 2H, Mongolia’s tugrik has stabilized at 2420-2450. And with a return to stable growth, heightened copper and coal prices, and fiscal responsibility, Mongolia has brought about conditions which may well buttress Tugrik strength in the coming 18-24 months. Hence, appreciating Tugrik may well give the appearance of a decreasing measure of foreign sales (i.e. dollars would purchase fewer Tugrik at repatriation of earnings). But this is a short-term concern. APU enjoys excellent mid-term and long-term prospects growing international sales volume; and earnings (denominated in whichever currency). NEW ENTRANTS Neither Mongolia’s capital availability nor population nor taste preference give credence to a possibility of another large alcohol producer entering this market. INTERNAL RIVALRY
  • 6. 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | Page 6 of 44 6 of 44 |© BEHARRY, LYNDON MARTIN W. | 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | 12/7/2017 4:40 PM This merger/consolidation will tend to increase in-house rivalry. Certain of the marketed products man tend to cannibalize sales from others. SUBSTITUTES There are no acceptable (legal) substitutes for alcoholic beverages. APU: Dairy SUPPLIERS Mongolian supply competes against SUU JSC, Mongolia’s leading producer of dairy products. But, in this case, APU has traditionally sourced New Zealand powdered milk for Tsever Suu. -Packaging materials relies on European technology BUYERS Stiff competition from Mongolia’s leading dairy producer: SUU JSC. (Beharry, 2017) Buyers in Mongolia’s national market are sensitive to price, perception of quality, and sensitive to differentiation on packaging and branding. NEW ENTRANTS Mongolian dairy is undergoing consolidation (VitaFit is losing share to APU and SUU, etc.). Furthermore, the food and dairy industry faces stringent controls on hygiene – which creates hurdles on in-house development in adherence to regulatory structure; and requires capital investment towards pasteurization, packaging and logistics to deliver fresh material to processing and consumption. Under these constraints, considering Mongolia’s limited internal market, it is unlikely that a new entrée could find success producing dairy in Mongolia. INTERNAL INDUSTRY RIVALRY As noted above, Mongolia’s leading dairy producers APU and SUU engage in intense industrial rivalry. (Beharry, 2017) SUBSTITUTES There are no viable substitutes for dairy. APU: Beer and Alcohol SUPPLY APU sources grain grown locally in Mongolia. Over the decades, the company has grown close relationships with independent grain farmers (and has integrated backward ***check this***). But all quality beverage producers require fresh matter for distillation and brewing. Because of this, there is always a potential that bad harvest or blight would affect local grain production. In such a case, APU would be forced to purchase grain inputs from abroad: China and/or Russia. In such a case, the Entity would face additional costs relevant to tariffs and/or excise taxes. Furthermore, APU purchases some packaging materials from international markets. A UK glassmaker forms certain premium bottles. While the volume of glassware bottling is small in comparison, Foreign Exchange volatility does bear somewhat to these costs.
  • 7. 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | Page 7 of 44 7 of 44 |© BEHARRY, LYNDON MARTIN W. | 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | 12/7/2017 4:40 PM BUYERS The new APU entity will likely face cannibalization risk among several – perhaps many - of lower, undifferentiated brand lines. Buyers are price conscious, and during promotion periods (whether by the Entity or by a supermarket chain) buyers of low-end alcohol products are likely to purchase the less expensive offering. While this is less of an issue on premium brands, where consumer taste preferences come more into play; the Entity may well see some switching of brands – particularly if the Entity changes supply source for grain inputs. Foreign buyers will certainly bear upon the new APU’s FCFI. During the past five years, Mongolia’s currency strength has fallen by over 80% vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar from 1300 to 2450 ₮MNT/$USD (i.e. [2450−1300] [1300] = 88%). During 2017 2H, Mongolia’s tugrik has stabilized at 2420-2450. And with a return to stable growth, heightened copper and coal export prices, and fiscal responsibility, Mongolia has brought about conditions which may well buttress Tugrik strength in the coming 18-24 months. Hence, appreciating Tugrik may well give the appearance of a decreasing measure of foreign sales (i.e. dollars would purchase fewer Tugrik at repatriation of earnings). But deleterious foreign exchange repatriation is a short-term concern. APU enjoys excellent mid-term and long- term prospects for growth in international sales volume; and in earnings (denominated in whichever currency). INTERNAL INDUSTRY RIVALRY The merger/consolidation will lessen industrial rivalry. APU JSC will emerge as Mongolia’s leading beverage and alcohol producer. BARRIERS TO EXIT There are no barriers to exit.
  • 8. 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | Page 8 of 44 8 of 44 |© BEHARRY, LYNDON MARTIN W. | 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | 12/7/2017 4:40 PM Summary of Financial Data All Monetary units in 1,000 ₮MNT; Units (in general): ‘000 1. Post-merger Shares Outstanding: 1,064,182 2. Beta: 1.230284 [𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴 𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅 𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡 𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀 𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇 20 𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼] [𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉 𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀 𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇 20 𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼] Time interval: November 7, 2016 – November 21, 2017 3. WACC: 15.179% (see the Assumptions for the breakdown) 4. Base2016 Revenue: 688,911,708 The 2017 base revenue is the amalgamation of 2016 revenue for all parties involved adjusted for 5.00% growth over 2016: 1) APU JSC; 2) MCS-APB; 3) SBB; and 4) APU Trading. 5. Projected Revenue Growth Rate for the model: 7.00% (Conservative estimate achieving forecast inflation index + 1.5% true growth in a competitive environment with ForEx sales risk). 6. Asset Base ASSETS 2016 2017 PRO-FORMA CURRENT ASSETS Cash 16,636,675 39,994,000 Accounts Receivable 9,984,743 16,028,000 Inventories 51,636,625 73,973,000 Investments in Securities / Short-term Securities 33,812 Taxes and social security contributions - Manual 1,269,753 Other receivables 5,171,261 11,230,000 Prepaid expenses / settlement 5,218,459 5,646,000 Other current assets 14,439 34,000 Total Current 89,965,766 146,905,000 NON-CURRENT ASSETS Property Plant and Equipment (Net of Depreciation) 189,332,593 332,843,000 Intangible (Other Intangible) 553,659 Long-term Marketable Securities 904,836 Biological Assets (Livestock, other) 82,952 Total Non-Current 201,104,021 544,035,000 Total Assets 291,069,787 690,940,000 7. Liability Base LIABILITIES 2016 2017 PRO-FORMA CURRENT LIABILITIES Accounts Payable 32,798 2,143,000 Current Portion of Debt 793,955 Payroll giving 370,530 The tax debt 9,963,269 11,283,000 Short term loan 39,742,390 Interest payable 794,000 Dividend Payable 19,881,881 21,129,000 Other short-term liabilities 6,542,198 18,186,000 Total Current Liabilities 77,327,021 53,535,000
  • 9. 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | Page 9 of 44 9 of 44 |© BEHARRY, LYNDON MARTIN W. | 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | 12/7/2017 4:40 PM LIABILITIES 2016 2017 PRO-FORMA NON-CURRENT LIABILITIES 2016 2017 Pro-Forma Notes payable / Long-term Debt 70,117,592 73,972,000 Long-term deferred tax 244,268 Other long-term liabilities 195,434 2,345,000 Total Non-Current Liabilities 70,557,295 76,317,000 Total Liabilities 147,884,316 129,852,000 8. Equity Stated (The analyst adjusted outstanding shares to Par = 1.00 ₮MNT ; the difference deducted from Additional Capital Paid-In. Total Equity Value remains unchanged) STOCKHOLDERS’ EQUITY 2016 2017 PRO-FORMA Capital Stock 742,877 1,064,182 Treasury Stock 121 Additional Capital Paid-In -668,831 337,136,818 Retained Earnings 62,458,059 89,916,000 Reserves 132,971,000 Property Revaluation 80,653,246 Shareholder Equity 143,185,472 561,088,000 9. Monte Carlo Methodology Monte Carlo is a statistics-mathematics process. In finance, Monte Carlo analysis aims to mimic real-world volatility (cost structures, inflation, machine or process downtime/failure, prices, time intervals, weighted average cost of capital, etc.) to probabilistically predict a range of outcomes. The analyst employed the identical variable structure for both the static and Monte Carlo equity valuation models. BUT, the Monte Carlo process dynamically alters the factors within defined constraints. In this instance, Monte Carlo uses the variables as the statistical mean (arithmetic average), and fluctuated each factor 250,000 times at a standard deviation of 10% of the mean value. 10.Historical Variable Components of the functional model (note, mean values assume normal distribution): VARIABLE COMPONENT: 2016 HISTORICAL MEAN: µ STDEV: σ PROJECTED1 CoGS : f(Revenue) 68.968% 0.737% 67.000% Depreciation/Amortization [COGs] : f(Revenue) 9.000% 0.184% 8.000% SGA (Only) : f(Revenue) 13.812% 13.843% R&D : f(Revenue) NA NA 0.000% Depreciation / Amortization: (SGA) NA NA 0.000% Total Administrative Overhead : f(Revenue) 13.843% 0.128% 13.843% Other Expense (Income)/Overhead : f(Revenue) 2.968% 3.000% Interest Expense (Income) : f(Revenue) 0.952% 0.926% Tax Rate : f(EBT) 25.000% 8.201% 24.500% Capital Expenditures : f(Revenue) 5.000% 0.186% 5.000%2 Working Capital : f(Revenue)3 0.000% 0.716% 0.000% ∆ Working Capital : f(Revenue) 0.000% 0.690% 0.000% 1 Projected figures are conservative estimates based upon historical patterns for APU JSC adjusted and tempered for industry norms and also for Heineken N.V. consolidated statements. 2 Heineken N.V. consolidated statements reflect an adjusted CapEx base of approximately 8.00% of revenue. The analyst believes that APU JSC and MBC recent CapEx pushes down this thresh-hold for the short-intermediate term. 3 The analyst believes Working Capital is properly considered within overall CapEx.
  • 10. 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | Page 10 of 44 10 of 44 |© BEHARRY, LYNDON MARTIN W. | 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | 12/7/2017 4:40 PM Assumptions to the Model 1. Inflation The International Monetary Fund and other agencies have projected near and intermediate-term Mongolian inflation to a percentage of 5.5% to 6.5% per annum. 2. Bank of Mongolia Policy Rate Since June 2017, Government of Mongolia / Bank of Mongolia Policy Rate: 12.000% (with REPO at 14.000%). (Bank of Mongolia, n.d.) 3. Market Returns (Mongolian Stock Exchange market figures) To evaluate Ke in the CAPM, the DCF model uses the U.S. S&P 1970 – 2000s average returns of 11.00% plus a 5.00% risk and inflationary premium for Mongolia systemic risk. This imputes Mongolian Stock Market returns of 16.00%; an estimate for the opportunity cost of investing in equity floated on the MSE. The following chart tabulates Mongolian Stock Exchange historic returns and volatility: Jan 1 MSE-20 CAGR Arithmetic Growth MSE-All CAGR Arithmetic Growth 2012 21687.57 2013 17609.14 -18.81% -18.81% 2014 16301.81 -13.30% -7.42% 2015 14854.24 -11.85% -8.88% 998.94 2016 12897.59 -12.18% -13.17% 895.88 -10.32% -10.32% 2017 12456.06 -10.50% -3.42% 861.24 -7.15% -3.87% 20184 23586.66 1.41% 89.36% 1273.16 8.42% 47.83% Mean -10.87% 6.28% Mean -3.01% 11.22% 2013-2018 6.02% 2013-2018 2014-2018 9.68% 2014-2018 2015-2018 16.66% 2015-2018 8.42% 4. Weighted Average Cost of Debt Based upon the estimated and Pro-Forma Balance Sheets reflecting an estimated Book Valuation of Long-Term Debt: 73,972,000; the analyst estimates the cost of debt: ISOLATION OF COST OF DEBT 2012 EBRD Loan Facility 56,000,000 $USD 2012 Average ForEx Rate 1353.095 MNT/USD Estimated Booked Long-term Debt (based upon 2012 Q4 ForEx translation) ‘000 ₮MNT 75,780,949 Actual Balance Sheet Carrying Value ‘000 ₮MNT 73,972,000 Current 2017 Q4 LIBOR 6-month6 1.652% Estimated Risk Premium on EBRD loan to APU 5.50% Effective Loan Interest at 2017 LIBOR 7.152% Annual Loan Payment (at rate in $USD) $USD 56,000,000 X 7.152% = $USD 4,005,120 2017 ForEx MNT:USD 2450 Interest Payment in MNT ₮MNT 9,812,544,000 Effective Debt Cost at 2017 9,812,544 73,972,000 = 13.265% 4 Most recent 2017 figure to approximate Jan 1, 2018. 5 Average of weekly ForEx. (QuandL, 2017) 6 Six-month LIBOR at November 27, 2017. (Wall Street Journal, 2017)
  • 11. 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | Page 11 of 44 11 of 44 |© BEHARRY, LYNDON MARTIN W. | 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | 12/7/2017 4:40 PM 5. Weighted Average Cost of Common Equity7 This analysis uses two models to value the cost of equity: Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM): E(ri) = rf + β[E(rm)-rf]8 ; and Gordon Dividend Growth Model: KE = [(RoE - gn ) X (BV0 / P0)] + gn Where RoE9 = 20.00% and gn = 5.50% to account for inflationary pressures. 6. Weighted Average Cost of Preferred Shares There are neither preferred shares Authorized nor Outstanding. 7. Consideration for volatility attributed to Common Shares Free-floating held by neither Corporate entities nor Institutions: Negligible; 94.222% of Authorized Shares are held by Corporate and/or Institutional Investors 8. Weighted Average Cost of Capital The formula for Weighted Average Cost of Capital: �(𝐾𝐾𝐾𝐾∗𝐸𝐸)+(𝐾𝐾𝐾𝐾𝐾𝐾∗𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃)+�𝐾𝐾𝐾𝐾∗𝐵𝐵∗(1−𝑡𝑡)�� [𝐸𝐸+𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃+𝐵𝐵] Where KE = Cost of Common Equity; KPE = Cost of Preferred Equity; KB = Cost of Debt This analysis uses an arithmetic mean WACC of 15.179% ; calculated as an average of the WACC derived from CAPM (+15.916%) and WACC derived from Gordon (+14.442%); where Ke CAPM = 16.921% ; and Gordon Ke = 15.196%; and 13.265% for weighted cost of Debt 9. Comparison of Industry and Relevant Statistics Industry Heineken N.V. (2016) APU (2016) Current Ratio 0.78 1.16 Acid Test Ratio 0.307510 0.2919 0.5855 0.215511 0.344712 Leverage Ratio 1.44 1.69 0.63 1.0313 0.5114 Return on Assets 9.35%15 4.44% 7.66% Return on Equity 22.83%16 11.99% 15.58% Revenue Growth 2.62%17 3.956%18 1.403%19 10. Projected Revenue Growth In 2017, the consolidated international alcoholic beverage industry20 posted an average annual revenue growth rate of 2.62%. Assuming a U.S. dollar inflation rate of 1.50% to 1.75%, this implies real growth of 1.00% Y-o-Y. This model will grow APU revenue by Mongolian inflation (6.00% + 1.00% to mimic real-world industry growth). 7 See the Appendices for the mathematical calculations. 8 The analyst calculated E(rm) at 16.00% following: US Equities Market Return (c. 1970s – 2000s) = 11.00% + a risk premium of 5.00% for Mongolian Stock Exchange risk. 9 Approximating the industry standard Culled from CSI Market (CSI Market dot Com, 2017) 10 Average of Past Four Quarters 11 Exclusive of Accounts Receivable 12 Inclusive of Accounts Receivable 13 Debt:Equity (Book Value) 14 Debt:Debt+Equity (Book value) 15 Culled from CSI Market (CSI Market dot Com, 2017) 16 Culled from CSI Market (CSI Market dot Com, 2017) 17 2.62% : Average of Sequential Revenue Quarterly Growth 2014 Q4 – 2017 Q3 (CSI Market dot Com, 2017); Note, U.S. 2-year bond rate yield = 1.76%; hence Alcohol revenue is growing approximately 1.00% higher than estimated inflation. 18 Five-Year Compound Annual Growth Rate 19 Four-Year Compound Annual Growth Rate 20 Average of Past Four Quarters
  • 12. 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | Page 12 of 44 12 of 44 |© BEHARRY, LYNDON MARTIN W. | 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | 12/7/2017 4:40 PM The model will reduce sequential annual growth by a factor of 0.20% to achieve a 10- year reduction in growth to match projected inflation rates, and assure conservative discounted cash-flow estimates. The analyst adjusted 2016 Revenue factors by 5.00% to achieve baseline 2017 figures. See the breakdown in the Appendices. 11.Debt consolidation Post-merger, the entity shareholder: Heineken may well find it prudent and in its better interest to improve FCFI by assisting the new APU entity with debt structuring at lower, long-term, beneficent rates. This would allow APU, Heineken’s affiliate, to repay at improving ForEx translation rates. In such a regard, the new APU entity may find its re- aligned capital cost structure at 10.000% or less. This analysis will consider APU’s existing WACC as well as alternatives in a more relaxed capital cost structure. 12.APU Dairy (wholly-owned subsidiary) Growth APU Dairy: APU will spin-off APU Dairy as a wholly-owned subsidiary. APU JSC August 18 2017 Extraordinary General Meeting of Shareholders projected total dairy sales (coded orange) to follow the trajectory outlined in the graphic (the analyst’s conservative projection (13.5% growth): blue): Higher growth rates are possible; contingent upon the means through which the merger enables the new APU entity to export through leverage of Heineken’s international trade network. But domestically, the new APU entity still suffers market saturation in dairy, stiff competition, and pricing constraints. This instant analysis does not contemplate a detailed forecast of whether and how APU Dairy could achieve a 22.466% CAGR over the next four-year horizon. Nevertheless, assuming a normal inflation price increase of 6% coupled with natural brand growth of 7.5% per annum; this analysis conservatively estimates APU Dairy revenue growth of 13.5% growth per annum. (See the SUU analysis (Beharry, 2017) for data relevant to dairy market saturation in Mongolia, and particularly Asian lactose intolerance.) 13.APU Dairy Ownership APU will retain 100% ownership of the APU Dairy subsidiary, with earnings posting to APU FCFF as either a) Earnings in Associates/Affiliates; b) Dividends; or c) another type of pass-through mechanism. 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 APU Proj Dairy Sales ₮MNT 000's 22,358,000 28,319,000 34,765,000 42,130,000 50,291,000 Analyst's Proj 22,358,000 25,376,330 28,802,135 32,690,423 37,103,630 APU Proj CAGR 26.662% 24.697% 23.515% 22.466% 22,358,000 28,319,000 34,765,000 42,130,000 50,291,000 22,358,000 25,376,330 28,802,135 32,690,423 37,103,630 26.662% 24.697% 23.515% 22.466% 20.000% 22.000% 24.000% 26.000% 28.000% 30.000% 0 10,000,000 20,000,000 30,000,000 40,000,000 50,000,000 60,000,000 APUProjCAGR APUProjDairySales₮MNT000's APU Company Dairy Sales Projections 1,000 ₮MNT
  • 13. 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | Page 13 of 44 13 of 44 |© BEHARRY, LYNDON MARTIN W. | 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | 12/7/2017 4:40 PM 14.Brand Redundancies During the first 18 to 24 months, the merged entity may encounter redundancies in production and sales – especially at the lower end of product offerings (see the Porter analysis above). The analyst believes that the merged entity will prudently consolidate certain low-end brand offerings to reduce CoGS. While this will tend to increase sales volatility in the short-term; consolidation will contribute to long-term value through cost reductions. 15.Employment and Capital Redundancies Post-merger, the new APU entity will face employee redundancies, clashes in entity culture (across Four major segments: APU, SBB, MBC: MCS-APB, and APU Dairy until the spin-off). Owing to Mongolia’s traditional socialist culture (and even Dutch progressive culture of training workers for value), the new entity will likely achieve attrition through normal means: retirement etc. The new APU entity may find redundancies in capital infrastructure: a) logistics and supply-chain management (truck fleet, fueling depots, delivery routes, computing infrastructure and optimization routines, etc.); b) beer production infrastructure (inefficient vs. efficient power plant systems, kettles and brewing hardware, disposal methods, etc.); c) distillation infrastructure; and in other issues. These redundancies, the new APU’s methodology in managing these redundancies, while maintaining morale, will bear significantly upon productivity in the early months of the post-merger period. 16.Projected 2017 Base-Line Revenue The analyst estimated 2017 Baseline Revenue at 2016 Consolidated X 1.05 of 2016. 5.00% Growth = Average of 5.50% Inflation Index tempered conservatively. The analyst believes this figure to be a conservative estimate in consideration that the merged entity will enjoy greater price flexibility owing to decreased competition, while accommodating for cannibalization and brand redundancies. 17.Common Equity Out: 1,064,182 18.Valuation of PPE: Unknown – whether book value, or adjusted to replace cost at merger. 19.Whether Heineken may offer better financing from its network (something higher than Heineken internal hurdle rate, but substantially better than Mongolia debt rates): Unknown. If Heineken offers better capital rates, the valuation would become somewhat more valuable. 20.Rate of Product cannibalization within branded product lines by division – especially during promotion periods: Unknown. The analyst requires greater source data on brand equity. 21.Restructuring charges and employee attrition: Unknown. The analyst requires greater information on branding equity, PPE, and redundancies in productive capital equipment, capacity, and foreign sales targets. 22.Environmental and sustainability issues. The analyst believes APU has instituted stakeholder management policies toward sustainability across a range of environmental and sustainability issues.
  • 14. 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | Page 14 of 44 14 of 44 |© BEHARRY, LYNDON MARTIN W. | 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | 12/7/2017 4:40 PM Summary of Analytical Findings VALUATIONS The analyst evaluated the several standard models for per share values (below). The analyst also tested the assumptions using a thorough Monte Carlo multi-iteration step model (250,000 iterations of all financial information and Assumptions for each of ten years forward plus perpetuity): Model Valuation ₮MNT Criteria and Variables Static DCF 1,150.034 7.00% Growth CAPM 921.923 P/E 628.886 X 30 Book Value 1,009.124 X 7.5 Monte Carlo DCF µ 1,180.474 σ 389.535; Lognormal Mean of Models 933.963 FINANCIAL RATIOS FINANCIAL RATIOS | FY 2016 2017 PRO-FORMA CURRENT 1.163 2.744 ACID TEST 0.344 1.046 DEBT:EQUITY 1.032 0.231 DEBT:DEBT+EQUITY 0.508 0.187 ROA (ADJUSTED FOR D&A) 0.076 0.033 ROE 0.155 0.041 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS ON STATIC MODEL This static model provides per share price at incremental WACC discount rates; holding growth constant. WACC Rate Per Share 9.621% 1,369.152 10.222% 1,309.439 10.823% 1,253.161 11.425% 1,200.097 12.026% 1,150.038 12.627% 1,102.793 13.229% 1,058.182 13.830% 1,016.038 14.431% 976.207
  • 15. 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | Page 15 of 44 15 of 44 |© BEHARRY, LYNDON MARTIN W. | 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | 12/7/2017 4:40 PM This static model provides per share price at incremental Rates of Growth; holding WACC constant. Growth Rate Per Share 0.02 820.154 0.03 876.545 0.04 937.385 0.05 1,003.006 0.06 1,073.763 0.07 1,150.034 0.08 1,232.224 0.09 1,320.761 0.1 1,416.104 0.11 1,518.737 0.12 1,629.179
  • 16. 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | Page 16 of 44 16 of 44 |© BEHARRY, LYNDON MARTIN W. | 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | 12/7/2017 4:40 PM Analysis of the Data and Assumptions The Monte Carlo Discounted Cash-Flow model. Description: 1. The Monte Carlo model projected revenue at a mean growth rate of 7.00% with a coefficient of variability equal to 10% (in other words, oscillating the mean growth rate at a standard deviation of 10% of the mean value). 2. The Monte Carlo model reduced each subsequent year growth by 0.20% from 2017Base. Hence, 2018 estimated growth: 7.00% - 0.20% = 6.80%; 2019: 6.60% and so on; with tenth year = 5.00%. Note: Monte Carlo oscillates these projected growth rates with a coefficient of variability of 10% . The analyst uses this approach to err towards conservative valuation. 3. The Perpetuity uses Year10 as a base, with a growth rate of 5.50% (projected inflation) divided by WACC-Growth = 15.179% - 5.50% = 9.679% . Sample Progression 4. The Monte Carlo model estimates cost factors according to revenue or Earnings Before Taxes (see the Summary of Data and the Assumptions).
  • 17. 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | Page 17 of 44 17 of 44 |© BEHARRY, LYNDON MARTIN W. | 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | 12/7/2017 4:40 PM The Static Model 1. The Static Model projects Revenue forward at a 7.00% growth rate. 2. The Static Model Perpetuity uses Year10 as a base, with a growth rate of 5.50% (projected inflation) divided by WACC-Growth = 15.179% - 5.50% = 9.679% . Progression
  • 18. 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | Page 18 of 44 18 of 44 |© BEHARRY, LYNDON MARTIN W. | 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | 12/7/2017 4:40 PM Static Model Sensitivity to WACC and to Growth Rates
  • 19. 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | Page 19 of 44 19 of 44 |© BEHARRY, LYNDON MARTIN W. | 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | 12/7/2017 4:40 PM Analysis of the Static Model 1. At the estimated 7.00% Growth Rate and the stated WACC of 15.179%; the static model returns a per share price of ₮MNT 1,117.33. 2. The summary charts (above) reflect various valuations according to differing WACC and Rates of Growth. Analysis of the Monte Carlo Model Summation: FORECAST NAME: APU COMPANY MONTE CARLO SIMULATION VALUATION PER SHARE TRIALS: 250,000 Mean 1,142.38 Median 1,141.00 Mode --- Standard Deviation 192.68 Variance 37,123.74 Skewness 0.0192 Kurtosis 3.07 Coeff. of Variation 0.1687 Minimum 74.03 Maximum 2,034.83 Mean Std. Error 0.3854 Fit Distribution Name Lognormal Fit: Location -30,333.351 Fit: Mean 1,142.379 Fit: Std. Dev. 192.675 Fit: Beta 4.402033854 The Monte Carlo model oscillates defined curve parameters: Parameter Projected CoGS : f(Rev) 67.00% Depreciation/Amortization [COGs] : f(Rev) 8.00% SGA (Only) : f(Rev) 13.84% R&D : f(Rev) 0.00% Depreciation / Amortization: (SGA) 0.00% Total Administrative Overhead : f(Rev) 13.84% Other Expense (Income)/Overhead : f(Rev) 3.00% Interest Expense (Income) : f(Rev) 0.93% Tax Rate : f(EBT) 24.50% Capital Expenditures : f(Rev) 5.00% Oracle Crystal Ball snapshot showing the simulation frequency of variable oscillation. The Monte Carlo model returned a Mean per share valuation of ₮MNT 1,142.38 following a slightly skewed lognormal distribution with standard deviation of ₮MNT 192.68. The (weighted) minimum ₮MNT per share valuation under these constraints: 74.03; the (weighted) maximum: 2,034.83 The ₮MNT range: 1,960.798 Shares Outstanding: 1,064,182
  • 20. 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | Page 20 of 44 20 of 44 |© BEHARRY, LYNDON MARTIN W. | 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | 12/7/2017 4:40 PM The following analysis describes a statistical ranging and probability of per share valuation above (or below) a given threshold. Probability of Share Value Above Threshold 000 0.998569 250 0.991761 500 0.960695 750 0.865930 1,000 0.678106 1,250 0.427389 1,500 0.205295 1,750 0.072309 This summary indicates a fairly strong probability of fair valuation above 1,100 and above 1,200. The Monte Carlo volatility models show strength in valuation overall. Within the stated constraints, Monte Carlo reflects a 68% probability of fair value above ₮MNT 1,000; and a nearly nil probability of financial demise.
  • 21. 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | Page 21 of 44 21 of 44 |© BEHARRY, LYNDON MARTIN W. | 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | 12/7/2017 4:40 PM Recommendations Going Forward This analysis concludes that the APU JSC merger with SBB and MBC will provide excellent shareholder value and excellent opportunities for APU to consolidate and grow sales.
  • 22. 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | Page 22 of 44 22 of 44 | © BEHARRY, LYNDON MARTIN W. | 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | 12/7/2017 4:40 PM Appendix I: Brands ENTITY DIVISION BRAND DESCRIPTION APU Dairy Fresh milk and tarag "Deej" filled in the most convenient packaging, Pure Pak, with wider closure are produced by APU Company. Brand's superior quality and outstanding taste are carefully crafted by best professionals of the country. "Deej" brand delivers authentic nomad soul and Mongolian unique culture. APU Dairy APU Company produces Mongolia's first dairy and juice brand “Maamuu" dedicated to children for their healthy and happy lifestyle. “Maamuu" brand is a blend of high quality milk, real fruit, modern technology and essential nutrition for healthy growth. The brand is represented by two characters, a boy Sergelen and a girl Tsovoo, who aim to promote healthy, happy and active lifestyle among children. "My friend - Maamuu"
  • 23. 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | Page 23 of 44 23 of 44 |© BEHARRY, LYNDON MARTIN W. | 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | 12/7/2017 4:40 PM ENTITY DIVISION BRAND DESCRIPTION APU Dairy A variety of healthy choices for the whole family, Sain brand is made with fresh milk and the highest quality of natural ingredients from Europe. Modern processing technology and ecofriendly packaging deliver a wide range of nutritious dairy products with charming design. "The best for your loved ones" APU Dairy One of Mongolia’s most recognized and trusted milk brands; “Tsever Suu” is made with the best quality milk powder from New Zealand and is available in the convenient Tetra Pak packaging that keeps in all the goodness. Produced strictly according to ISO 22000 standards, “Tsever Suu” brand was first introduced in 2006 with its creamy taste which contains essential nutrients for a healthy lifestyle. Available in 1 L Tetra Pak packaging, 3.2% fat APU Beer This iconic pale lager is named after the largest desert region in Mongolia and Asia, and using only the finest ingredients, it is brewed strictly according to the German Beer Purity Law (Reinheitsgebot) first established in 1516. Golden Gobi is golden in hue, high in foaminess and has a light, refreshing flavor with sweet finish. Alcohol content is 5.1%.
  • 24. 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | Page 24 of 44 24 of 44 |© BEHARRY, LYNDON MARTIN W. | 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | 12/7/2017 4:40 PM ENTITY DIVISION BRAND DESCRIPTION APU Beer Mongolians have known and loved Borgio since 1927. Its bold yet smooth taste attracts true beer aficionados of different generations. True definition of Mongolian pale lager, Borgio is brewed with full, distinctive and classic German character. Neither malt nor hops are dominant; both are in good balance with a touch of sweetness, providing a smooth yet crispy refreshing taste. Alcohol content is 5.5%. Available in 0.5 L can, 0.5 L bottle, 2 L PET bottle, 2.5 L PET bottle APU Beer Draft style beer available in local restaurants and pubs, first brewed in 2005. This full bodied special lager is produced by traditional German technology and was released in two variations: filtered and non-filtered. Alcohol content is 5.0%. Available in draft APU Beer With its centuries of brewing expertise APU Company has recently released, Kaltenberg Hefeweissbier the first ever locally bottled wheat beer for the enjoyment of our customers. APU Company is delighted to introduce this great beer, under the license of König Ludwig International GmbH. This wheat beer brewed by an ancient Bavarian recipe carries distinct aroma of cloves and bananas. Alcohol content is 5.8%. Available in 0.5 L bottle
  • 25. 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | Page 25 of 44 25 of 44 |© BEHARRY, LYNDON MARTIN W. | 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | 12/7/2017 4:40 PM ENTITY DIVISION BRAND DESCRIPTION APU Beer Literally meaning “Capital”, Niislel beer is one of the premier brands that was introduced in 1972. Representing responsible drinking and metropolitan culture, Niislel brand is a lead choice for young metropolitans. This refreshing clear lager with subtle taste and light malty aroma has a mild sweet flavor. Alcohol content is 5.0%. Available in 0.45 L bottle, 0.5 L can, 1.5 L PET bottle, 2.5 L PET bottle APU Beer Цэвэр лагер төрлийн шар айрагны хамгийн шинэлэг, хамгийн зөөлөн сонголт болох Prime брэнд нь 4.6%-ийн спиртийн агууламжтай. Савлагаа: 330 мл, 500 мл APU Beer SERUUN brand is produced using the state-of-the-art cold filtration technology made available by the New Brewery expansion project. Meeting the demands of the new generation of light beer lovers, SERUUN brand incorporates the essence of TRUE LIGHT beer through innovation and expertise of 90 years. First produced in 2015, SERUUN brand is a refreshingly sparkling beer with great notes of malt and clean smooth taste. Alcohol content is 4.8%. Available in 0.33 L bottle, 0.45 L bottle, 0.5 L can, 2.5 L PET bottle and draft. Time to quench your thirst – ULTRA DRINKABILITY
  • 26. 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | Page 26 of 44 26 of 44 |© BEHARRY, LYNDON MARTIN W. | 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | 12/7/2017 4:40 PM ENTITY DIVISION BRAND DESCRIPTION APU Beer Named after the ancient capital of Mongolia, Khar Khorum premium dark beer is the first and only, true Mongolian bottled dark beer. Available in 0.33 L bottle, 0.45 L bottle, 0.5 L can APU Vodka Standard filtration was not enough for this ALPHA vodka, therefore, silver and dia­mond filtrations are used to make more smooth taste with no bitterness. Fine organic ingredients are used to develop the liquid. In order to make Alpha spirit we used the best grain from Selenge province and Pure water from sacred Bogd khan mountain. APU Vodka An unique infused vodka using the indigenous Rhodiola roots revered for its medicinal properties related to energy, stamina, strength, and mental capacity.
  • 27. 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | Page 27 of 44 27 of 44 |© BEHARRY, LYNDON MARTIN W. | 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | 12/7/2017 4:40 PM ENTITY DIVISION BRAND DESCRIPTION APU Vodka Internationally recognized for its quality and taste, Altan Turuu means ‘Golden Spike’ or ‘Gold Winner’, referring to the supreme quality of wheat and the title of a winner in traditional horse racing competition. APU Vodka Mongolia’s original export vodka since 1976 – Trusted for purity and quality, Mongolia’s best-selling vodka, affectionately known as “X” to the locals. Six step distilled alpha-grade spirit; Filtered using cutting edge diamond filtration process; Honeyed notes with mellow spice and hint of fresh pepper at the edges followed by hint of creamy aniseed APU Vodka Meaning ‘Crystal’, “Bolor” vodka was launched in 1981 to commemorate the first Mongolian in space, and comes in original, orange and cranberry flavors.
  • 28. 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | Page 28 of 44 28 of 44 |© BEHARRY, LYNDON MARTIN W. | 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | 12/7/2017 4:40 PM ENTITY DIVISION BRAND DESCRIPTION APU Vodka A visionary vodka – Our expression of the highest respect for Chinggis Khan and Mongolia, defined by our wealth of natural resources, culture and traditions. Six step distilled alpha-grade spirit Filtered over 10 days through charcoal, quartz, diamonds, pearls and silver Silky texture with floral overtones of lavender and hint of creamy aniseed. APU Vodka Өөрийн гэсэн мэдрэмжээр ертөнцийг хардаг, урлаг уран сайхныг таашааж үздэг, зорилго мөрөөдөлдөө үнэнч хэн бүхэнд зориулан APU компани “Мэдрэмж хөглөх амт“ буюу “EDEN”(ЭДЕН) брэндийг 2016 онд зах зээлд нэвтрүүллээ. "Мэдрэмж хөглөх Eden" APU Vodka Meaning “Good Wish”, “Eruul” is the first vodka in Mongolia to use the silver filtration process for extra purity and smoothness.
  • 29. 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | Page 29 of 44 29 of 44 |© BEHARRY, LYNDON MARTIN W. | 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | 12/7/2017 4:40 PM ENTITY DIVISION BRAND DESCRIPTION APU Vodka Meaning ‘Black Pearl’, hence the opaque black bottle, the “Khar Suvd” brand is exceptionally smooth vodka with a hint of dark roasted coffee that is crafted using a unique pearl filtration process. APU Vodka Мэдлэгтэй, мэдээлэлтэй, ухаалаг сонголт хийдэг өөрийн гэсэн ертөнцийг үзэх үзэл, амьдралын хэв маягтай хэрэглэгчиддээ зориулан APU компани "ариун дагшин байгалийн шимт бүхнийг дээжилсэн" цоо шинэ Охь брэндээ хүргэж байна. "Шимийн дээд Охь" APU Vodka A Mongolian legend – Mongolia’s best-selling super premium vodka dedicated to be the classic expression of traditional ceremony and national genuine quality. Six step distilled alpha-grade spirit Filtered over 5 days through charcoal, quartz, diamonds and silver. Elegant medium-bodied mouth feel with creamy aniseed and hint of citrus and bread notes
  • 30. 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | Page 30 of 44 30 of 44 |© BEHARRY, LYNDON MARTIN W. | 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | 12/7/2017 4:40 PM ENTITY DIVISION BRAND DESCRIPTION APU Vodka Тайга брэнд нь Монгол нутгийн хөрсөнд ургасан эмийн ургамал, жимсгэнийн ханд агуулсан онцгой найрлага бүхий 4 улирлыг агуулсан байгалийн гаралтай цагаан архийг зах зээл дээр 2016 онд хэрэглэгч олондоо бэлэг болгон хүргэж байна. "Mongolian Natural Vodka" APU Vodka First produced in 1963, Ulaanbaatar vodka commemorates the capital of Mongolia. Rebranded to the current modern design in 2012, Ulaanbaatar vodka is four-step distilled for a smooth taste with a hint of blackberry. APU Vodka “VELVET” брэнд нь залуусын цагийг зугаатай, хөгжилтэй өнгөрүүлэх тансаг үдшийн хэв маягийн илэрхийлэл бөгөөд энэхүү бүтээгдэхүүнийг шинийг санаачлах хүсэл эрмэлзэлтэй, өөртөө итгэлтэй эрч хүчээр дүүрэн бүсгүйчүүд болон залуус та бүхэндээ зориулан 2016 онд APU компани, шинэ үеийн төлөөлөл болсон залуу үеийнхэндээ хүргэж байна. “Эрх чөлөөгөө тунхагла!”
  • 31. 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | Page 31 of 44 31 of 44 |© BEHARRY, LYNDON MARTIN W. | 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | 12/7/2017 4:40 PM ENTITY DIVISION BRAND DESCRIPTION APU Vodka An unique infused vodka using the indigenous hand-picked Yamaakhai roots known for its medicinal properties related to recovery and rejuvenation. APU Soft Drink First ever bottled pure water brand in Mongolia sourced from the sacred Bogd Khan Mountains, trusted for its purity and quality, APU Pure water still remains the best source of refreshment for local consumers. Available in 0.33 L, 0.5 L, 1.5 L PET packaging APU Soft Drink Containing all the good stuff, Frutta brand provides all types of refreshment to everyone in the family. Frutta brand has less sugar and more natural ingredients, and offers great taste to those who want healthy yet tasty refreshment for all occasions. Frutta brand offers wide variety of fruit juices to sparkling soft drinks with all natural fruit flavors.
  • 32. 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | Page 32 of 44 32 of 44 |© BEHARRY, LYNDON MARTIN W. | 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | 12/7/2017 4:40 PM ENTITY DIVISION BRAND DESCRIPTION APU Soft Drink Named after the great river “Selenge”, all natural Selenge sparkling soft drink is unique for its infusion of all natural ingredients and natural artesian water. Containing only natural ingredients such as Eglantine and various indigenous roots, which are known for its refreshing effects. Available in 1.5 L PET Packaging. "True Taste of Nature" APU Soft Drink Named after the great river “Terelj”, all natural Terelj sparkling soft drink is unique for its infusion of all natural ingredients and natural artesian water. Containing only natural ingredients such as wild thyme and Rhodiola roots, which are known for rejuvenating and stimulating body and soul. Available in 1.5 л PET Packaging. "True Taste of Nature" APU Soft Drink Mongolian first ever carbonated water "Orgiluun" means "Sparkling" and it expresses itself refreshing, dynamic and bubbly feeling for consumers' thirst-quenching. Orgiluun can be a great alternative to sugary beverages and offers natural fruit flavor in every sip. Orgiluun classic is a zero-calorie drink to stay hydrated, no contained sugar and flavor, which quenches your thirst with only fine bubbles. Orgiluun flavored sparkling waters are made with natural fruit essences that more sweet and fragrant to drink. It is a perfect alternative for those seeking various flavorful beverages yet delicious and refreshing. Each of Orgiluun flavored sparkling water offers a burst of aromatic fruit flavor: "Bubble your life!"
  • 33. 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | Page 33 of 44 33 of 44 |© BEHARRY, LYNDON MARTIN W. | 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | 12/7/2017 4:40 PM ENTITY DIVISION BRAND DESCRIPTION Heineken (APB- Sprit BB) Beer Heineken (APB- Sprit BB) Beer Heineken (APB- Sprit BB) Beer
  • 34. 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | Page 34 of 44 34 of 44 |© BEHARRY, LYNDON MARTIN W. | 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | 12/7/2017 4:40 PM ENTITY DIVISION BRAND DESCRIPTION Heineken (APB- Sprit BB) Beer Heineken (APB- Sprit BB) Beer Heineken (APB- Sprit BB) Beer
  • 35. 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | Page 35 of 44 35 of 44 |© BEHARRY, LYNDON MARTIN W. | 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | 12/7/2017 4:40 PM ENTITY DIVISION BRAND DESCRIPTION Heineken (APB- Sprit BB) Vodka Heineken (APB- Sprit BB) Vodka Heineken (APB- Sprit BB) Vodka
  • 36. 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | Page 36 of 44 36 of 44 |© BEHARRY, LYNDON MARTIN W. | 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | 12/7/2017 4:40 PM ENTITY DIVISION BRAND DESCRIPTION Heineken (APB- Sprit BB) Vodka Heineken (APB- Sprit BB) Vodka Heineken (APB- Sprit BB) Vodka
  • 37. 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | Page 37 of 44 37 of 44 |© BEHARRY, LYNDON MARTIN W. | 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | 12/7/2017 4:40 PM ENTITY DIVISION BRAND DESCRIPTION Heineken (APB- Sprit BB) All Heineken (APB- Sprit BB) Vodka
  • 38. 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | Page 38 of 44 38 of 44 | © BEHARRY, LYNDON MARTIN W. | 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | 12/7/2017 4:40 PM Appendix II: Ownership and Affiliates 2015-2016 APU JSC SHAREHOLDER INFORMATION • Tuul Internationaal Co., Ltd21 (Immediate Parent Company) • WIT Alliance Ltd (BVI) (Shareholder) • Zennor International Ltd (BVI) (Shareholder) • Golomt Bank LLC (Shareholder (under REPO) APU Company Shareholders22 Shares PerCentage Tuul International Ltd. 384,231,000 51.722% Wit alliance limited 149,266,000 20.093% Golomt bank Ltd. 147,890,867 19.908% Three Entities Control 681,387,867 91.723% Total Shares Issued 742,877,000 100.000% SUBSIDIARY • Grand LLC (Subsidiary) • Chinggis Khan International Limited (Subsidiary) ASSOCIATED COMPANIES AND OTHERS (*) APU Trading LLC (Associated company and Exclusive distributor of APU brand products) Depod LLC (Associated Company) Shunkhlai Group LLC (Associated company) Shunkhlai Trading LLC (Associated company) Shunkhlai Petroleum LLC (Associated company) Shunkhlai LLC (Associated company) Hyundai Motors Mongolia LLC (Associated company) Kia Motors Mongolia LLC (Associated company) Media Group LLC (Associated company) Public Media LLC (Associated company) Amilan E LLC (Associated company) NTV Broadcasting LLC (Associated company) GSB Mining LLC (Associated company) Power Unit LLC (Associated company) Suntrans Logistics LLC (Associated company) Suntrans LLC (Associated company) International Medical Center LLC (Associated company) Capital Group LLC (Associated company) UB Spirit LLC (Associated company) GSB Capital LLC (Associated company) Skytel LLC (Associated company) Natur Agro LLC (Associated company) Wan Trade LLC (Associated company) Great Empire LLC (Associated company) Skymedia Corporation LLC (Associated company) S Development LLC (Associated company) Mongol Daatgal LLC (Associated company) Chinggis Khan Bank LLC (Associated company) Blue Sky Cashmere LLC (Associated company) 21 Tuul International Co., Ltd. Is a Mongolian-Hong Kong Joint Venture. Government of Mongolia auctioned GoM’s 51% remaining stake in APU. Tuul International Co., Ltd. submitted the successful tender and became the majority owner. (Ref: decree 663 of the State Property Committee on November 29th of 2001) (APU JSC, n.d.) 22 Major Shareholders at November 2017. (APU JSC, n.d.)
  • 39. 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | Page 39 of 44 39 of 44 |© BEHARRY, LYNDON MARTIN W. | 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | 12/7/2017 4:40 PM Appendix III: APU Timeline APU TIMELINE23 1924 What is now called APU Company, was established as the first alcohol distillery in Mongolia. 1927 The company ventured into beer production with guidance from expert brewers from Czechoslovakia. 1958 A fully mechanized line was installed at the plant, raising production capacity to 3000 bottles per hour. 1961 New bottling facilities were installed and the plant began producing soft drinks and bottled mineral water sourced from Janchivlan Spa. 1971 To commemorate the 50th anniversary of the People’s Revolution, the factory was awarded the State Honorary Certificate, for outstanding management of production, and service delivery. 1972 Construction of the new integrated vodka and beer plant was completed. To celebrate, the “Niislel” beer brand was launched, a refreshing new lager beer. 1973 The plant was officially named “Vodka and Beer Plant of Ulaanbaatar” by the Council of Ministers of the People’s Republic of Mongolia. 1981 The plant received numerous awards recognising the quality of both its products and business conduct. To commemorate the first Mongolian in space, APU Company launched a new premium vodka “Bolor”. 1992 The company was partially privatized, and the name “APU” was formally adopted (reflecting the Mongolian name “Spirits Beer Beverages”). 2001 The State sold its remaining shares in APU, transferring the company to full private ownership. Shunkhlai Group became the majority shareholder. 2003 A major equipment update program was completed, raising the brewery’s annual production capacity to 20 million liters, and placing APU at the leading edge of beer production. Two new premium beer brands “Khar Khorum” and “Altan Gobi”, and a new vodka brand “Eruul“ were launched. 2004 The installation of state-of-the-art bottling equipment at the distillery raised soft drink and water production capacity to 5 million liters per year. 2006 APU Company enters the dairy business, introducing the “Tsever Suu” (Pure Milk) dairy brand to Mongolian consumers. 2007 “Soyombo” super-premium vodka brand was launched, adding the first alpha spirit to APU Company’s portfolio. 2009 The construction of a new automated distillery, capable of producing 15,000 liters of premium-grade spirit a day, was completed. In order to fulfill the growing demand for juices, APU Company launched “Frutta” juice brand to Mongolian consumers. “Fusion” beer brand was also introduced to the Mongolian market. 2013 The construction of a new, leading-edge brewery facility was completed in just 15 months, and the fully automated APU Logistics Center began operations, setting APU Company’s logistics and warehousing facilities at the forefront of global standards. “Orgiluun”, the first carbonated water to be sourced and produced in Mongolia was launched, and the “Borgio” beer brand was updated and refreshed. 2014 A dedicated dairy plant opened at APU Company’s premises, setting a new standard of excellence for the Mongolian dairy market. APU celebrated its 90th Anniversary. 2016 The “New Wave” brand program is launched, introduc-ing to the market brands such as Bliss (fruit flavored beer), vodkas including VELVET, EDEN, ARKHI EXPORT /40 years/, Taiga /4 types/ and Okhi. 23 APU Company: 2016 Annual Report. (APU JSC, 2017)
  • 40. 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | Page 40 of 44 40 of 44 |© BEHARRY, LYNDON MARTIN W. | 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | 12/7/2017 4:40 PM APU TIMELINE23 2017 HEINEKEN has entered into agreements to merge its businesses in Mongolia with APU JSC, the country’s leading beverages producer which Shunkhlai Group (SG) is the largest shareholder. HEINEKEN will contribute its interests in its Mongolian beer and vodka businesses – MBC - into a holding company Evergreen Investments LLC (Evergreen), which will then merge with APU JSC. As part of the transaction, SG will also contribute its existing beer and vodka interests held outside of APU JSC into Evergreen. Post transaction, HEINEKEN will hold 25% in APU JSC, with SG retaining majority ownership. The proposed merger is subject to approval by APU JSC’s shareholders as well as regulatory agencies. Completion is expected to take place in Quarter 4, 2017. (APU JSC, n.d.)
  • 41. 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | Page 41 of 44 41 of 44 |© BEHARRY, LYNDON MARTIN W. | 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | 12/7/2017 4:40 PM Appendix IV: Miscellaneous 2017 Extraordinary General meeting (APU JSC, n.d.) The Extraordinary General Meeting of APU JSC started at 2:00PM on 18 August 2017 in Culture Palace of Khan-Uul District, Ulaanbaatar. Attendance: Ms. Uranbaigali O., Head of Attendance Recording Committee, presented the Resolution of the Committee: This is to inform the Shareholders and the Chairperson of the Meeting that the Extraordinary General Meeting of APU JSC is attended by 109 shareholders who hold 705,777,364 ordinary shares, which is 95.16% of the total 741,670,190 ordinary shares with voting rights. Thus, the Extraordinary General Meeting is considered as valid, based on the Clause 69.1, Article 69 of the Company Law. The Meeting Agenda: To approve restructuring of APU JSC through segregation and establishing of a subsidiary company; To approve restructuring of APU JSC through consolidating Evergreen Investments LLC, to approve the restructuring project of the consolidation (hereinafter referred to as consolidation project) and to approve the consolidation agreement; To issue private placement in relation with consolidation of Evergreen Investments LLC to APU JSC; To disallow preferred right to purchase the private placement to be issued in relation with consolidation of Evergreen Investments LLC to APU JSC; To approve amendment to the Charter of APU JSC. The Meeting Resolution: Mr. Erdenebileg Ts., Chairperson of the Meeting: Based on the Resolution of the Attendance Recording Committee, the Extraordinary General Meeting dated 18 August 2017 discussed and resolved the followings: Restructuring of APU JSC through segregation and establishment of new subsidiary company are approved, whereas: Restructuring of APU LLC through consolidating Evergreen Investments LLC is approved and in relation with that process, the followings are approved: Board of Directors of APU JSC is approved to restructure APU JSC through segregation with following terms and to establish a new subsidiary company, whereas: To establish a Limited Liability Company named “APU DAIRY”; To approve starting balance and shared capital of “APU DAIRY” LLC as MNT 54,619,000,000 (fifty-four billion six hundred and nineteen thousand tugrugs) which consists of 546,190,000 (five hundred forty-six million one hundred and ninety thousand) pieces of ordinary shares with a nominal value of MNT 100 (one hundred tugrugs) each; To let APU JSC 100% owns the total ordinary shares issued by APU DAIRY LLC; To let APU DAIRY LLC run the following operations without time limit; To approve APU DIARY (sic) LLC run operations with a legal address at #33/5, Chinggis Avenue, 1st Khoroo, Khan-Uul District, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia; To approve the first Charter to establish APU DIARY LLC as per Appendix 1 and to make further amendments to the Charter.
  • 42. 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | Page 42 of 44 42 of 44 |© BEHARRY, LYNDON MARTIN W. | 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | 12/7/2017 4:40 PM Restructuring terms and conditions via segregating APU JSC are approved as per Appendix 2. Board of Directors of APU JSC is approved to segregate MNT 54,619,000,000 (fifty-four billion six hundred and nineteen thousand tugrugs) from APU JSC balance and transfer to APU DIARY LLC balance. It is mentioned that no changes will be made to the quantity of overall shared capital of APU JSC nor nominal value or quantity of the Company’s total issued shares in relation with segregation of asset from balance of APU JSC. Board of Directors of APU JSC is authorized to appoint a committee to implement the segregation terms and procedures and to resolve any issues which may be raised in relation with implementation of and the resolution. Board of Directors of APU JSC is authorized to hold rights and duties of shareholders and general meeting of APU DAIRY LLC and to establish APU DAIRY LLC. Chief Executive Officer Mr. Erdenebileg Ts. is obliged to notice, in accordance with the relevant procedures, and obtain permission from Financial Regulatory Commission and Stock Exchange about the restructuring of APU JSC through segregation and establishment of a subsidiary company, and to register relevant amendments to the General Authority for Intellectual Property and State Registration of Mongolia, and other actions if necessary. Restructuring of APU JSC through consolidating Evergreen Investments LLC is approved as well as the following related issues: To approve restructuring of APU JSC through consolidating Evergreen Investments LLC, to terminate activities of Evergreen Investments LLC while rights, duties and responsibilities of which shall be transferred to APU JSC under consolidation. To approve the project to restructure APU JSC through consolidating Evergreen Investments LLC (hereinafter referred to as “consolidation project”) as per Appendix 1 and the Consolidation Agreement to be made by and between APU JSC and Evergreen Investments LLC as per Appendix 2 respectively. This major deal, which also has conflict of interest, is hereby approved. In relation with approval of the restructuring of APU JSC through consolidating Evergreen Investments LLC, it’s approved to increase shared capital of APU JSC by MNT 32,130,455.30 and issue the private placement from APU JSC with the terms, price and quantity shown below: of which: 1) Share type: ordinary; 2) Quantity: 321,304,553 pieces; 3) Unit share value: MNT 1,052.35; 4) Nominal stock value: MNT0.10. It is authorized to convert 338,127,000 shares of Evergreen Investments LLC with nominal value of MNT 1,000 each into 321,304,553 ordinary shares of APU JSC with nominal value of MNT 0.10 and let the current shareholders of Evergreen Investments LLC possess the private placement, issued by APU JSC, as followings, which is based on a pro-rata basis with number of shares they possess in Evergreen Investments LLC: No. Shareholders Number of shares Unit price of shares Share capital Percentage in the shared capital 1 Heineken Asia Pacific Pty.Ltd 266,091,981 MNT 0.10 MNT 26,609,198.10 25.00% 2 Mongolian Beverage Investments LLC 55,212,572 MNT 0.10 MNT 5,521,257.20 5.19% Total 321,304,553 MNT 0.10 321,304,553 30.19% It is resolved that current shareholders of APU JSC shall not have a preferred right to purchase the shares offered by APU JSC as a private placement in relation with consolidation of Evergreen Investments LLC to APU JSC. It is resolved that the amendment to the Charter of APU JSC is approved as per Appendix 3. Board of Directors is authorized to appoint a committee which shall implement the terms and conditions to consolidate Evergreen Investments LLC into APU JSC, to approve a procedure to exercise shareholders’ claim in relation with the restructuring through
  • 43. 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | Page 43 of 44 43 of 44 |© BEHARRY, LYNDON MARTIN W. | 2017-12-07_APU-Draft02 | 12/7/2017 4:40 PM consolidation and completion of the major deal, to approve buy-back price of the shares, to implement this resolution and settle any issues which may raise in relation with the resolution. Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Erdenebileg Ts., is authorized to sign on behalf of APU JSC on the Consolidation Agreement to be made by and between APU JSC and Evergreen Investments LLC. Chief Executive Officer Mr. Erdenebileg Ts. is obliged to notice, in accordance with relevant procedures, and obtain permission from Mongolian Stock Exchange and Financial Regulatory Commission about the restructuring of APU JSC through consolidating Evergreen Investments LLC, and to make relevant amendments to stock exchange, and other actions if necessary. Chief Executive Officer Mr. Erdenebileg Ts. is obliged to register amendment to the Company’s Charter to the General Authority for Intellectual Property and State Registration and take other actions if necessary, after Financial Regulatory Commission has authorized the decision to restructure APU JSC through consolidating Evergreen Investments LLC and to register private placement of APU JSC and the private placement has been registered. The Extraordinary General Meeting is closed at 04:45PM.
  • 44. Equity Valuation 2017‐11‐27_APU‐Combined‐MonteCarloEquity Financial Statement Review 1,343,429,346 1,300,748,011 1,260,935,904 1,223,771,319 1,189,051,417 1,156,590,490 1,126,218,400 1,097,779,162 1,071,129,673 1,262.41 1,222.30 1,184.89 1,149.96 1,117.34 1,086.84 1,058.30 1,031.57 1,006.53 0.00 200.00 400.00 600.00 800.00 1,000.00 1,200.00 1,400.00 0 200,000,000 400,000,000 600,000,000 800,000,000 1,000,000,000 1,200,000,000 1,400,000,000 1,600,000,000 12.14% 12.90% 13.66% 14.42% 15.18% 15.94% 16.70% 17.46% 18.21% ₮MNT Per Share; 1,000 Units | 1,064,182 Shares APU Company NPV FCFE 1,000 ₮MNT WACC APU Company DCF NPV 1,000 ₮MNT Varying WACC:  Static Model  999,426,210 1,032,180,890 1,067,340,383 1,105,078,024 1,145,578,471 1,189,038,349 1,235,666,922 1,285,686,795 1,339,334,653 1,396,862,032 1,458,536,124 939.15 969.931,002.971,038.431,076.491,117.33 1,161.14 1,208.15 1,258.56 1,312.62 1,370.57 0.00 200.00 400.00 600.00 800.00 1,000.00 1,200.00 1,400.00 1,600.00 0 200,000,000 400,000,000 600,000,000 800,000,000 1,000,000,000 1,200,000,000 1,400,000,000 1,600,000,000 ₮MNT Per Share; 1,000 Units | 1,064,182 Shares APU Company NPV FCFE 1,000 ₮MNT Growth Rate APU Company DCF NPV 1,000 ₮MNT Varying Growth:  Static Model  Beharry, Lyndon Martin W.  2017‐11‐27_APU‐Combined‐MonteCarloEquity|Graphics 11/29/2017 10:27 Page 1 of 1
  • 45. Equity Valuation 2017‐11‐27_APU‐Combined‐MonteCarloEquity Financial Statement Review APU Company Monte Carlo Simulation: Valuation Per Share Mask Monetary Values In 1,000 ₮MNT (Except Per Share Values). 1,000 ₮MNT Revenue Growth Rate2018 Revenue Growth Rate2019 Revenue Growth Rate2020 Revenue Growth Rate2021 Revenue Growth Rate2022 Revenue Growth Rate2023 Revenue Growth Rate2024 Revenue Growth Rate2025 Revenue Growth Rate2026 Revenue Growth Rate2027 Revenue Growth Rate2028 Projection Base [FY] Year T0  2017 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Mean STDEV 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 7.000% 0.700% Random Growth Rate 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Sequential Reduction 0.200% PERPETUITY Timet0 Timet+1 Timet+2 Timet+3 Timet+4 Timet+5 Timet+6 Timet+7 Timet+8 Timet+9 Timet+10 Timet+11 Projection TimeT1  773,992,303 Monte Carlo Revenue 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 CoGS : f(Revenue)2018 CoGS : f(Revenue)2019 CoGS : f(Revenue)2020 CoGS : f(Revenue)2021 CoGS : f(Revenue)2022 CoGS : f(Revenue)2023 CoGS : f(Revenue)2024 CoGS : f(Revenue)2025 CoGS : f(Revenue)2026 CoGS : f(Revenue)2027 CoGS : f(Revenue)2028 67.000% 6.700% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% CoGS: 67.00% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Depreciation/Amortization [COGs] : f(Revenue)2018 Depreciation/Amortization [COGs] : f(Revenue)2019 Depreciation/Amortization [COGs] : f(Revenue)2020 Depreciation/Amortization [COGs] : f(Revenue)2021 Depreciation/Amortization [COGs] : f(Revenue)2022 Depreciation/Amortization [COGs] : f(Revenue)2023 Depreciation/Amortization [COGs] : f(Revenue)2024 Depreciation/Amortization [COGs] : f(Revenue)2025 Depreciation/Amortization [COGs] : f(Revenue)2026 Depreciation/Amortization [COGs] : f(Revenue)2027 Depreciation/Amortization [COGs] : f(Revenue)2028 8.000% 0.800% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% D&A (Production): 8.00% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 GROSS MARGIN 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 SGA (Only) : f(Revenue)2018 SGA (Only) : f(Revenue)2019 SGA (Only) : f(Revenue)2020 SGA (Only) : f(Revenue)2021 SGA (Only) : f(Revenue)2022 SGA (Only) : f(Revenue)2023 SGA (Only) : f(Revenue)2024 SGA (Only) : f(Revenue)2025 SGA (Only) : f(Revenue)2026 SGA (Only) : f(Revenue)2027 SGA (Only) : f(Revenue)2028 13.843% 1.384% Administrative Costs: 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% SGA: 13.84% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 R&D : f(Revenue)2018 R&D : f(Revenue)2019 R&D : f(Revenue)2020 R&D : f(Revenue)2021 R&D : f(Revenue)2022 R&D : f(Revenue)2023 R&D : f(Revenue)2024 R&D : f(Revenue)2025 R&D : f(Revenue)2026 R&D : f(Revenue)2027 R&D : f(Revenue)2028 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% R&D: 0.00% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Depreciation / Amortization: (SGA)2018 Depreciation / Amortization: (SGA)2019 Depreciation / Amortization: (SGA)2020 Depreciation / Amortization: (SGA)2021 Depreciation / Amortization: (SGA)2022 Depreciation / Amortization: (SGA)2023 Depreciation / Amortization: (SGA)2024 Depreciation / Amortization: (SGA)2025 Depreciation / Amortization: (SGA)2026 Depreciation / Amortization: (SGA)2027 Depreciation / Amortization: (SGA)2028 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% D&A (SGA): 0.00% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Admin Expenses: 0.00% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other Expense (Income)/Overhead : f(Revenue)2018 Other Expense (Income)/Overhead : f(Revenue)2019 Other Expense (Income)/Overhead : f(Revenue)2020 Other Expense (Income)/Overhead : f(Revenue)2021 Other Expense (Income)/Overhead : f(Revenue)2022 Other Expense (Income)/Overhead : f(Revenue)2023 Other Expense (Income)/Overhead : f(Revenue)2024 Other Expense (Income)/Overhead : f(Revenue)2025 Other Expense (Income)/Overhead : f(Revenue)2026 Other Expense (Income)/Overhead : f(Revenue)2027 Other Expense (Income)/Overhead : f(Revenue)2028 3.000% 0.300% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% OTHER: 3.00% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 EBIT 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 Interest Expense (Income) : f(Revenue)2018 Interest Expense (Income) : f(Revenue)2019 Interest Expense (Income) : f(Revenue)2020 Interest Expense (Income) : f(Revenue)2021 Interest Expense (Income) : f(Revenue)2022 Interest Expense (Income) : f(Revenue)2023 Interest Expense (Income) : f(Revenue)2024 Interest Expense (Income) : f(Revenue)2025 Interest Expense (Income) : f(Revenue)2026 Interest Expense (Income) : f(Revenue)2027 Interest Expense (Income) : f(Revenue)2028 0.926% 0.093% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% Interest Inc./(Exp.): 0.93% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 EBT 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 Tax Rate : f(EBT)2018 Tax Rate : f(EBT)2019 Tax Rate : f(EBT)2020 Tax Rate : f(EBT)2021 Tax Rate : f(EBT)2022 Tax Rate : f(EBT)2023 Tax Rate : f(EBT)2024 Tax Rate : f(EBT)2025 Tax Rate : f(EBT)2026 Tax Rate : f(EBT)2027 Tax Rate : f(EBT)2028 24.500% 2.450% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% Taxes: 24.50% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Tax Payable Tax Payable Tax Payable Tax Payable Tax Payable Tax Payable Tax Payable Tax Payable Tax Payable Tax Payable Tax Payable Net Earnings 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 D&A AddBack: 8.00% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Capital Expenditures : f(Revenue)2018 Capital Expenditures : f(Revenue)2019 Capital Expenditures : f(Revenue)2020 Capital Expenditures : f(Revenue)2021 Capital Expenditures : f(Revenue)2022 Capital Expenditures : f(Revenue)2023 Capital Expenditures : f(Revenue)2024 Capital Expenditures : f(Revenue)2025 Capital Expenditures : f(Revenue)2026 Capital Expenditures : f(Revenue)2027 Capital Expenditures : f(Revenue)2028 5.000% 0.500% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% CAP EX: 5.00% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Working Capital : f(Revenue)2018 Working Capital : f(Revenue)2019 Working Capital : f(Revenue)2020 Working Capital : f(Revenue)2021 Working Capital : f(Revenue)2022 Working Capital : f(Revenue)2023 Working Capital : f(Revenue)2024 Working Capital : f(Revenue)2025 Working Capital : f(Revenue)2026 Working Capital : f(Revenue)2027 Working Capital : f(Revenue)2028 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% WRK CAP: 0.00% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Equity Minority Interest : f(Revenue)2018 Equity Minority Interest : f(Revenue)2019 Equity Minority Interest : f(Revenue)2020 Equity Minority Interest : f(Revenue)2021 Equity Minority Interest : f(Revenue)2022 Equity Minority Interest : f(Revenue)2023 Equity Minority Interest : f(Revenue)2024 Equity Minority Interest : f(Revenue)2025 Equity Minority Interest : f(Revenue)2026 Equity Minority Interest : f(Revenue)2027 Equity Minority Interest : f(Revenue)2028 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% EARN AFFL: 0.00% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ‐142,857,185 LESS DEBT AND OTHER LONG-TERM LIABILITIES T0 0 LESS PREFERRED AT PAR T0 637,405,000 EXCESS CASH, SHORT-TERM SECURITIES AND FIRE SALE ASSETS T0 PERPETUITY VALUE FCF to Investor 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 773,992,303 8,436,170,575 WACC FOR SIMULATION 15.179% 0.304% To assess liquidity at T0, DCF analysis will deduct Balance Sheet Liabilities from Cash + Short‐term securities +100.00% of all other assets. 0.000% DCF to the Investors 17,444,633,727 DCF analysis will deduct the total value of liabilities from the firm's cash position. APU Company Monte Carlo Simulation: Valuation Per Share PER SHARE Beharry, Lyndon Martin W.  2017‐11‐27_APU‐Combined‐MonteCarloEquity|DCF All Variable_MC 11/29/2017 10:24 Page 1 of 3
  • 46. Equity Valuation 2017‐11‐27_APU‐Combined‐MonteCarloEquity Financial Statement Review 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 7.00% 6.80% 6.60% 6.40% 6.20% 6.00% 5.80% 5.60% 5.40% 5.20% 5.00% PERPETUITY Timet+1 Timet+2 Timet+3 Timet+4 Timet+5 Timet+6 Timet+7 Timet+8 Timet+9 Timet+10 Timet+11 Projected Revenue 773,992,303 826,623,780 881,180,949 937,576,530 995,706,275 1,055,448,652 1,116,664,673 1,179,197,895 1,242,874,581 1,307,504,060 1,372,879,263 CoGS: 67.00% ‐518,574,843 ‐553,837,933 ‐590,391,236 ‐628,176,275 ‐667,123,204 ‐707,150,597 ‐748,165,331 ‐790,062,590 ‐832,725,970 ‐876,027,720 ‐919,829,106 D&A (Production): 8.00% ‐61,919,384 ‐66,129,902 ‐70,494,476 ‐75,006,122 ‐79,656,502 ‐84,435,892 ‐89,333,174 ‐94,335,832 ‐99,429,967 ‐104,600,325 ‐109,830,341 GROSS MARGIN 193,498,076 206,655,945 220,295,237 234,394,133 248,926,569 263,862,163 279,166,168 294,799,474 310,718,645 326,876,015 343,219,816 Administrative Costs: SGA: 13.84% ‐107,143,048 ‐114,428,776 ‐121,981,075 ‐129,787,864 ‐137,834,711 ‐146,104,794 ‐154,578,872 ‐163,235,289 ‐172,049,994 ‐180,996,594 ‐190,046,424 R&D: 0.00% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 D&A (SGA): 0.00% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Admin Expenses: 13.84% ‐107,143,048 ‐114,428,776 ‐121,981,075 ‐129,787,864 ‐137,834,711 ‐146,104,794 ‐154,578,872 ‐163,235,289 ‐172,049,994 ‐180,996,594 ‐190,046,424 OTHER: 3.00% ‐23,219,769 ‐24,798,713 ‐26,435,428 ‐28,127,296 ‐29,871,188 ‐31,663,460 ‐33,499,940 ‐35,375,937 ‐37,286,237 ‐39,225,122 ‐41,186,378 EBIT 63,135,258 67,428,456 71,878,734 76,478,973 81,220,669 86,093,909 91,087,356 96,188,248 101,382,414 106,654,299 111,987,014 Interest Inc./(Exp.): 0.93% ‐7,167,900 ‐7,655,318 ‐8,160,568 ‐8,682,845 ‐9,221,181 ‐9,774,452 ‐10,341,370 ‐10,920,487 ‐11,510,193 ‐12,108,723 ‐12,714,160 EBT 55,967,358 59,773,138 63,718,166 67,796,128 71,999,488 76,319,457 80,745,986 85,267,761 89,872,220 94,545,576 99,272,854 Taxes: 24.50% ‐13,712,003 ‐14,644,419 ‐15,610,951 ‐16,610,051 ‐17,639,875 ‐18,698,267 ‐19,782,767 ‐20,890,601 ‐22,018,694 ‐23,163,666 ‐24,321,849 Tax Payable Tax Payable Tax Payable Tax Payable Tax Payable Tax Payable Tax Payable Tax Payable Tax Payable Tax Payable Tax Payable Net Earnings 42,255,355 45,128,719 48,107,215 51,186,077 54,359,613 57,621,190 60,963,219 64,377,160 67,853,526 71,381,910 74,951,005 D&A AddBack: 8.00% 61,919,384 66,129,902 70,494,476 75,006,122 79,656,502 84,435,892 89,333,174 94,335,832 99,429,967 104,600,325 109,830,341 Capital Expenditures: 5.00% ‐38,699,615 ‐41,331,189 ‐44,059,047 ‐46,878,827 ‐49,785,314 ‐52,772,433 ‐55,833,234 ‐58,959,895 ‐62,143,729 ‐65,375,203 ‐68,643,963 Working Capital Change: 0.00% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Earnings in Affiliates: 0 00% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ‐142,857,185 LESS DEBT AND OTHER LONG-TERM LIABILITIES T0 0 LESS PREFERRED AT PAR T0 637,405,000 EXCESS CASH AND SHORT-TERM SECURITIES T0 PERPETUITY VALUE 65,475,124 69,927,433 74,542,643 79,313,373 84,230,802 89,284,650 94,463,160 99,753,096 105,139,764 110,607,031 1,205,567,264 To assess liquidity at T0, DCF analysis will deduct Balance Sheet Liabilities from Cash + Short‐term securities +100.0 Static Model 1,156,196,225 DCF DCF analysis will deduct the total value of liabilities from the firm's cash position. 1,086.465 PER SHARE WACC 15.179% Incremental Change 2.500% WACC 0.000% 2.500% 5.000% 7.500% 10.000% 12.500% 15.000% 17.500% 20.000% Standard  : 2.500% Alternate WACC 12.143% 12.902% 13.661% 14.420% 15.179% 15.938% 16.697% 17.456% 18.215% Alternate: Yes APU Company NPV FCFE 1,000 ₮MNT 1,300,523,704.308 1,260,651,732.621 1,223,442,334.240 1,188,690,453.621 1,156,208,452.976 1,125,824,511.960 1,097,381,184.670 1,070,734,097.523 1,045,750,773.410 Alt   f(WACC):  5.000% Shares Out (Inc Treasury) 1,064,181.775 1,064,181.775 1,064,181.775 1,064,181.775 1,064,181.775 1,064,181.775 1,064,181.775 1,064,181.775 1,064,181.775 1,222.09 1,184.62 1,149.66 1,117.00 1,086.48 1,057.93 1,031.20 1,006.16 982.68 1,000 APU Company DCF NPV 1,000 ₮MNT Varying WACC: Static Model  APU Company DCF NPV 1,000 ₮MNT Varying Growth: Sta WACC APU Compa ₮MNT Per Share; 1,000 Units | 1,064,182 Shares Growth RatAPU Compa ₮MNT Per Share; 1,000 Units | 1,0 12.143% 1,300,523,704.308 1,222.088 1 0.02 999,426,210 939.150 12.902% 1,260,651,732.621 1,184.621 2 0.03 1,032,180,890 969.929 13.661% 1,223,442,334.240 1,149.655 3 0.04 1,067,340,383 1,002.968 14.420% 1,188,690,453.621 1,116.999 4 0.05 1,105,078,024 1,038.430 15.179% 1,156,208,452.976 1,086.476 5 0.06 1,145,578,471 1,076.488 15.938% 1,125,824,511.960 1,057.925 6 0.07 1,189,038,349 1,117.326 16.697% 1,097,381,184.670 1,031.197 7 0.08 1,235,666,922 1,161.143 17.456% 1,070,734,097.523 1,006.157 8 0.09 1,285,686,795 1,208.146 18.215% 1,045,750,773.410 982.681 9 0.1 1,339,334,653 1,258.558 10 0.11 1,396,862,032 1,312.616 11 0.12 1,458,536,124 1,370.570 Beharry, Lyndon Martin W.  2017‐11‐27_APU‐Combined‐MonteCarloEquity|DCF All Variable_MC 11/29/2017 10:24 Page 2 of 3
  • 47. Equity Valuation 2017‐11‐27_APU‐Combined‐MonteCarloEquity Financial Statement Review APU Company Monte Carlo Simulation: Valuation Per Share Forecast Name ation Per Share 17.83 Trials 250,000 30.66 Mean 1,142.38 Median 1,141.00 Mode ‐‐‐ Standard Deviation 192.68 Variance 37,123.74 Skewness 0.0192 Kurtosis 3.07 Coeff. of Variation 0.1687 Minimum 74.03 Maximum 2,034.83 Mean Std. Error 0.3854 0% 74.03 10% 897.72 20% 980.78 30% 1,040.99 40% 1,092.42 50% 1,141.00 60% 1,189.92 70% 1,242.44 80% 1,303.88 90% 1,389.65 100% 2,034.83 Fit Distribution Name Lognormal Fit: Location ‐30,333.351 Fit: Mean 1,142.379 Fit: Std. Dev. 192.675 Fit: Beta 4.402033854 Monte Carlo Projections: Sensitivity to Variables (Variance Calculation) 17.83 30.66 00% of all other assets. Sensitivity Analysis: Tornado Chart 17.83 30.66 atic Model  064,182 Shares Beharry, Lyndon Martin W.  2017‐11‐27_APU‐Combined‐MonteCarloEquity|DCF All Variable_MC 11/29/2017 10:24 Page 3 of 3
  • 48. Equity Valuation 2017‐11‐27_APU‐Combined‐MonteCarloEquity Financial Statement Review Variables Monetary Values In 1,000 ₮MNT (Except Per Share Values). APU Company Currency  ₮MNT Note: This sheet carries decimals to 3 places: 0.000 . User may vary input into shaded cells. Complete the IncStmntReview and BalShtReview worksheets, complete this page; then run your simulation here. The most recent FY end (type year): 2017 Adjust Base Year for TTM Estimate Yes Calculate Statistics through FY: 2017 Mean Historical Alternate 10.000% Coefficient of Variation Target Cut-off Variables Estimate STDEV Rate Revenue Growth Rate 2.745% 3.189% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=116.17% Use an alternate rate. Alternative Revenue Growth RateDCF 7.00000% 0.700% 0.00% Reduce sequential growth Monte Carlo DCF:  ₮MNT APU Company Projected Growth Rate Y1     7.000% 0.700% Use Alternate Rates: Yes 7.000% 0.700% AGGR CoGS : f(Revenue) 69.050% 2.604% 67.000% 69.002% Depreciation/Amortization [COGs] : f(Revenue) 8.661% 2.528% 8.000% 8.702% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=29.18% Use an alternate rate. SGA (Only) : f(Revenue) 13.843% 13.843% R&D : f(Revenue) 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% Depreciation / Amortization: (SGA) 0.000% 0.000% Total Administrative Overhead : f(Revenue) 13.842% 0.104% 0.000% 13.843% Other Expense (Income)/Overhead : f(Revenue) 3.000% 3.275% Interest Expense (Income) : f(Revenue) 0.926% 0.926% 0.926% Tax Rate : f(EBT) 24.611% 6.696% 24.500% 24.842% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=27.21% Use an alternate rate. Capital Expenditures : f(Revenue) 4.866% 12.968% 5.000% 15.866% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=266.52% Use an alternate rate. Working Capital : f(Revenue) 5.863% 6.122% 0.000% 10.662% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=104.42% Use an alternate rate.  Working Capital : f(Revenue) 3.380% 6.756% 0.000% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=199.87% Use an alternate rate. Equity Minority Interest : f(Revenue) 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% Financial Ratios | FY 2017 Current 2.74409265 Acid Test 1.04645559 Yes Include Accounts Receivable? Debt:Equity 0.23142894 Debt:Debt+Equity 0.18793528 RoA (Adjusted for D&A) 0.03390123 RoE 0.04174696 Gordon Dividend Payout Model: Book Value of the Firm ₮MNT1,000 561,088,000 Book Value Per Share BV0 527.248 Dividend Growth Rate (Gordon Model) gn 5.500% ke = [(RoE - gn ) X (BV0 / P0)] + gn 15.196% No Actual RoE (Yes); Expected RoE (No) P0/BV0 = PBV = [(RoE-gn)/(ke-gn) 1.49550009 Price Multiple : BV0 1.496 Forecast Share Price From Multiple X BV0 788.500 Static Model: DCF Valuation Per Share 1,117.326 Growth Rate: 7.00% less 0.00% each subsequent year after T1.  ₮MNT 1,117.326 VARIABLES FOR WACC CALCULATIONS Market and CAPM Modelling 12.000% Risk‐Free Rate (T‐Bill/Bond/Note, LIBOR or other imputed rate) 16.000% Overall historic Market Return Equity Share Variables 788.500 Current Market Price of Common Stock 0.000 Dividend, if applicable 1.230  eta  4.175% Return on Equity TTM 20.000% Expected Return on Equity 1,064,182 Current shares outstanding 1,000 Preferred Share Variables Current Market Price of Preferred Stock: A, if applicable 0 Current shares outstanding 1,000 Preferred: A stock coupon Current Market Price of Preferred Stock: B, if applicable 0 Current shares outstanding 1,000 Preferred: B stock coupon Current Market Price of Preferred Stock: C, if applicable 0 Current shares outstanding 1,000 Preferred: C stock coupon Current Market Price of Preferred Stock: D, if applicable 0 Current shares outstanding 1,000 Preferred: D stock coupon 0 Weighted Number of Preferred Shares Outstanding 0.000% Weighted Cost (Coupon) of Preferred Shares Outstanding 0.000 Weighted Market Price of Preferred Perpetuity Growth Rate Inflation Long‐term Growth Rate (for perpetuity model) 5.500% Long‐Term Inflation Rate 3.580% Average Long‐Term Inflation Rate: U.S.A. Basis of WACC CalculationAvg (CAPM, GCALCULATE DISCOUNT RATE VARYING EQUITY WEIGHTING: WACC, CAPM, GORDON RoE, AVERAGE OF CAPM AND GORDON RoE? Yes VARY WACC AROUND ITS MEAN? 2.000% AT THIS COEFFICIENT OF VARIATION (  PERCENT OF THE MEAN). 15.179% WACC FOR SIMULATION ALTERNATE PLUG FOR WACC DISCOUNT FACTOR Forecast Results Summary Per Share 660.330 P/E Valuation 30.000 PE Forward 921.923 CAPM Valuation 4.2857 Imputed or Projected PEG 788.500 BV0 Multiple Valuation 1,117.326 Static DCF Valuation 1,142.379 Monte Carlo DCF  Valuation 926.092    of All Models Valuation Monte Carlo Analysis: 192.675 Monte Carlo DCF  2.500  2,034.833 Monte Carlo Upper 2,034.833 74.035 Monte Carlo Lower 74.035 1,960.798 Monte Carlo Range 171.642% Range:Mean Lognormal Distribution Ratio Comparison of the Models P/E CAPM Gordon BV0  Static DCF MC DCF  Models P/E 0.000% 39.615% 19.410% 69.207% 73.001% 40.247% CAPM ‐28.375% 0.000% ‐14.472% 21.195% 23.913% 0.452% Gordon BV0  ‐16.255% 16.921% 0.000% 41.703% 44.880% 17.450% Static DCF ‐40.901% ‐17.488% ‐29.430% 0.000% 2.242% ‐17.115% MC DCF ‐42.197% ‐19.298% ‐30.977% ‐2.193% 0.000% ‐18.933%  Models ‐28.697% ‐0.450% ‐14.857% 20.650% 23.355% 0.000% Beharry, Lyndon Martin W.  2017‐11‐27_APU‐Combined‐MonteCarloEquity|Variables 11/29/2017 10:27 Page 1 of 1
  • 49. Equity Valuation 2017‐11‐27_APU‐Combined‐MonteCarloEquity Financial Statement Review APU Company 1,000 ₮MNT Aggregate Notes: D&A includes Amortization of acquired Intellectual Properties (i.e. Patents etc.) and D&A on PPE. 1,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Timet-12 Timet-11 Timet-10 Timet-9 Timet-8 Timet-7 Timet-6 Timet-5 Timet-4 Timet-3 Timet-2 Timet-1 Timet OPERATING REVENUE 100.000% Revenue From Income‐Expense Worksheet 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 685,552,030 688,911,708 723,357,293 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 100.000% TOTAL REVENUE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 685,552,030 688,911,708 723,357,293 PerCent Change 2.745% 0.490% 5.000% Revenue CAGR PRODUCTION COSTS: 0.000% CoGSIncome Statement  77.703% CoGS from Income‐Expense Worksheet (If Applicable) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 538,710,082 532,374,146 558,992,853 D&A from Income‐Expense Worksheet (If Applicable) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 60,297,307 41,813,240 80,432,801 0.000% D&ACashFlows  Yes Deduct D&ACashFlows from CoGSIncome Statement  Amortization Patents Intangibles 8.702% D&A PPE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 60,297,307 41,813,240 80,432,801 69.002% CoGS [Adj for D&A, and Depletion] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 478,412,775 490,560,906 478,560,052 77.703% COST OF SALES (Incl D&A) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 538,710,082 532,374,146 558,992,853 CoGs (Adj for D&A) PerCent of Revenue 69.785% 71.208% 66.158% 22.297% GROSS MARGIN 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 146,841,948 156,537,562 164,364,440 22.288% PerCent of Revenue 21.420% 22.722% 22.722% ADMINISTRATIVE COSTS: 0.000% SGAIncome Statement  0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 94,067,059 95,771,899 100,560,494 D&A from Income‐Expense Worksheet (If Applicable) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.000% D&ACashFlows  No Deduct D&ACashFlows from SGAIncome Statement  13.843% SGA [Adj for D&A] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 94,067,059 95,771,899 100,560,494 0.000% R&D 0.000% Amortization Patents Intangibles 0.000% D&A SGA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.000% Foreign Exchange Rate (Gains) / Losses 0.000% (Gain) Loss on fair value remeasurement 0.000% Restructuring / Other 13.843% TOTAL OPERATING / OVERHEAD EXPENSE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 94,067,059 95,771,899 100,560,494 Average PerCent of Revenue 13.721% 13.902% 13.902% PerCent Change 3.406% 1.812% 5.000% 8.454% EARNINGS BEFORE EXTRAORDINARY ITEMS: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 52,774,889 60,765,663 63,803,946 Other Items from Income-Expense Worksheet 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14,218,391 26,577,664 27,906,548 3.275% Other Expense | (Income) | Royalty or Extraordinary Items 5.179% EBIT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 38,556,499 34,187,999 35,897,399 Average %Rev 5.183% 5.624% 4.963% 4.963% PerCent Change -3.165% ‐11.330% 5.000% INTEREST PAYMENTS Interest Accounting from Income‐Expense Worksheet 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7,045,218 6,040,287 6,342,301 0.926% Interest Expense Estimated Cost of Debt 13.265% TOTAL INTEREST 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7,045,218 6,040,287 6,342,301 PerCent Change -4.632% ‐14.264% 5.000% 89,214,090 EARNINGS BEFORE TAXES 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 31,511,280 28,147,712 29,555,098 PROVISION FOR TAXES 22,162,525 10,191,733 5,839,411 6,131,382 PerCent Change -18.852% ‐42.704% 5.000% 24.842% PerCent of EBT 32.343% 20.746% 20.746% Dividends on Preferred Stock Extraneous Provisions 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 3.196% NET EARNINGS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 21,319,548 22,308,301 23,423,716 PerCent Change 4.638% 5.000% Net Earnings  CAGR or IRR 8.702% 8.702% D&A Add Back 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 60,297,307 41,813,240 80,432,801 D&A %Rev 8.795% 6.069% 11.119% 11.898% Net CashFlow to Firm 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 81,616,854 64,121,541 103,856,517 Net FCFFirm %Revenue 11.905% 9.308% 14.358% Estimated Capital Expenditure 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 135,900,479 136,566,485 143,394,810 -7.926% Estimated Net Earnings | FCFInvestors  0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ‐54,283,625 ‐72,444,944 ‐39,538,292 Net FCFInvestors %Revenue ‐7.918% ‐10.516% ‐5.466% CAGR or IRR Estimated Net Earnings | FCFInvestors  Beharry, Lyndon Martin W.  2017‐11‐27_APU‐Combined‐MonteCarloEquity|IncStmntReview 11/29/2017 10:28 Page 1 of 1
  • 50. Equity Valuation 2017‐11‐27_APU‐Combined‐MonteCarloEquity Financial Statement Review Income‐Expense Worksheet APU Company 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1,000 ₮MNT Revenue Worksheet 5.00% APU‐Sales 210,111,177 208,055,308 218,458,073 Less: discounts and allowances Hein‐APB Sales 51,846,499 62,257,890 65,370,784 SBB‐Sales 87,933,495 84,125,691 88,331,976 APU Trading 335,660,859 334,472,819 351,196,460 REVENUE CALCULATION 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 685,552,030 688,911,708 723,357,293 CoGS Worksheet 146,597,508 142,012,623 149,113,254 Hein‐APB‐CoGS ‐ All In 29,824,730 34,480,462 36,204,485 Hein‐APB‐Depreciation / Amortization Estimate (Follows APU %) SBB ‐ CoGS ‐ All In 65,425,951 62,581,337 65,710,404 SBB ‐ Depreciation / Amortization Estimate (Follows APU %) APU Trading All In 296,861,893 293,299,724 307,964,710 APU Trading Depreciation/Amortization (Follows APU%) CoGS CALCULATION 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 538,710,082 532,374,146 558,992,853 COMPLEX D&A CoGS (Production Capital) Estimated Depreciation @ +1/10 of PPE 18,933,259 0 34,948,515 Estimated Amortization @ +1/7 Goodwill and Intangibles 79,094 0 0 Hein‐APBDepreciation on PPE 4,147,720 4,980,631 5,229,663 SBB‐Depreciation on PPE 7,034,680 6,730,055 7,066,558 APU Trading Depreciation on PPE 30,102,554 30,102,554 33,188,065 TOTAL COMPLEX D&A (Posts to CoGS) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 60,297,307 41,813,240 80,432,801 COMPLEX SGA (Administrative Expense) Sales and marketing expenses 13,365,526 16,661,966 17,495,064 General and administrative expenses 13,663,031 12,416,501 13,037,326 Hein‐APB‐Marketing and Selling Expense 5,823 0 0 Hein‐APB General / Administrative 11,158,250 13,067,614 13,720,994 SBB‐Marketing and Selling Expense 243,228 321,433 337,505 SBB‐General / Administrative 12,418,107 11,515,667 12,091,450 APU Trading Sales and Marketing 35,474,076 34,735,632 36,472,413 APU Trading General/Administrative 7,739,019 7,053,086 7,405,741 TOTAL COMPLEX SGA (Posts to Administrative Expense) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 94,067,059 95,771,899 100,560,494 COMPLEX D&A SGA (Administrative Capital) TOTAL OTHER COMPLEX D&A SGA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 OTHER INCOME / (LOSS) Rental income 559,924 527,423 553,795 Interest income 91,511 170,303 178,818 Dividend income 0 0 0 Royalty income 0 0 0 Other income 741,258 539,661 566,644 Other costs ‐4,103,979 ‐1,913,396 ‐2,009,066 Foreign exchange rate gains (losses) ‐9,489,518 ‐26,487,279 ‐27,811,643 Gains deduction of the capital account (losses) ‐513,599 2,600 2,730 Hein‐APB Gain (Loss) On Foreign Exchange Transactions ‐1,164,171 ‐796,864 ‐836,707 Hein‐APB Other Income 433,089 3,030,287 3,181,801 Hein‐APB Gain (Loss) on Disposal of PPE ‐94,575 ‐29,807 ‐31,298 SBB‐Rental Income 106,718 109,509 114,985 SBB‐Other Costs ‐281,797 ‐134,993 ‐141,743 SBB‐Gain (Loss) On Foreign Exchange Transactions ‐474,609 ‐1,581,090 ‐1,660,145 APU Trading Other Income 3,557 6,434 6,756 APU Trading Other Costs ‐32,200 ‐20,453 ‐21,476 TOTAL OTHER INCOME (LOSS) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ‐14,218,391 ‐26,577,664 ‐27,906,548 INTEREST EXPENSE Financial expenses 6,758,814 6,079,005 6,382,955 Hein‐APB Interest Income (‐) ‐192,492 ‐214,344 ‐225,061 Hein‐APB Interest Expense (+) 379,443 133,551 140,229 SBB‐Interest Income (‐) ‐46,238 ‐100,334 ‐105,351 SBB‐Interest Expense (+) 156,254 152,157 159,765 APU Trading Interest Income ‐10,561 ‐9,749 ‐10,236 TOTAL INTEREST EXPENSE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7,045,218 6,040,287 6,342,301 Beharry, Lyndon Martin W.  2017‐11‐27_APU‐Combined‐MonteCarloEquity|Income‐Expense Worksheet 11/29/2017 10:28 Page 1 of 1