This Monte Carlo multi-iteration DCF Model returns a fair value for Kraft Heinz: $35.496 . The static Model returns a valuation of $34.388 . These models are conservative estimates projecting zero growth forward using cost factors pulled from the mean of the prior 15 years with a coefficient of variability of the cost factors equal to 10%. Kraft Heinz Company pays a dividend yield of 4.20% ay July 22, 2022.
KHC: Kraft Heinz Company came up on the screen I had completed earlier in the week on Tuesday, and it has been one of my favorites for many years (from before the divestiture of certain assets to Mondelez. Kraft is a textbook example of a stable U.S. entity which made a successful transition to multinational operations through purposefully introducing itself to various foreign markets, and also through astute trades and/or investments into food companies abroad. Kraft has significant presence in Europe, Asia, and Latin America; and a growing presence in Africa.
The Kraft Heinz Company, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets food and beverage products in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, and internationally. Its products include condiments and sauces, cheese and dairy products, meals, meats, refreshment beverages, coffee, and other grocery products. The company also offers dressings, healthy snacks, and other categories; and spices and other seasonings. It sells its products through its own sales organizations, as well as through independent brokers, agents, and distributors to chain, wholesale, cooperative and independent grocery accounts, convenience stores, drug stores, value stores, bakeries, pharmacies, mass merchants, club stores, and foodservice distributors and institutions, including hotels, restaurants, hospitals, health care facilities, and government agencies; and online through various e-commerce platforms and retailers. The company was formerly known as H.J. Heinz Holding Corporation and changed its name to The Kraft Heinz Company in July 2015. The Kraft Heinz Company was founded in 1869 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (FY: 2021-12-25)
6. Equity Valuation 2022‐07‐22_KHC_MC‐Equity‐1Million Financial Statement Review
KHC: Kraft Heinz Co. | FEIN: 46‐2078182 WACCCalc ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT AND LONG‐TERM LIABILITIES Yes
DCF analysis will deduct the total value of
liabilities from the firm's cash position.
Functional Currency: 1,000,000 $USD DCF ACCOUNTS FOR CASH AND ALL OTHER ASSETS (YES); ONLY CASH AND SHORT‐TERM (NO) No
To assess liquidity at T₀, DCF analysis will
deduct Balance Sheet Liabilities from Cash +
Short‐term securities.
Debt B Calculations [for Weighted Average Cost of Debt]: FIRE SALE VALUE FOR ASSETS OTHER THAN CASH: 85.000%
1,000,000
Long-Term Debt COST OF DEBT 3.702%
MatDate Coupon Value Annual TAX ADJUSTED 2.924%
2018‐09‐01 8.000% 0 OUTSTANDING DEBT OBLIGATIONS 43,942
2.700% 0 0 $USD CURRENCY COST OF DEBT ISSUE. 45,227
1.550% 0 0
6.800% 0 0
2.250% 0 0 COST OF PREFERRED STOCK 0.000%
2.960% 0 0 WEIGHTED MARKET PRICE OF PREFERRED STOCK 0.000
2.400% 0 0 WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF OUTSTANDING PREFERRED STOCK 0
2.150% 0 0 $USD CURRENCY COST OF PREFERRED CAPITAL. 0
2.400% 0 0
2.850% 0 0
2.550% 0 0 MARKET PRICE OF COMMON STOCK 38.490
3.500% 0 0 RECENT SHARES OUT 1,220
4.625% 0 0 OUTSTANDING COMMON STOCK: ESTIMATETTM = AVG(RECENT,10K FIGURE) 1,228 Adjusted for Treasury Stock
4.540% 0 RETAINED EARNINGS ‐1,682
4.580% 0 $USD CURRENCY COST OF COMMON CAPITAL: CAPITALIZATION. 47,102 49,452 BALANCE SHEET SE
1.920% 0
2.610% 0 DIVIDEND IN $USD 1.600
2.840% 0 DIVIDEND YIELD RATE 4.157%
4.150% 0 ONE YR EXPECTED $USD RETURN PER SHARE = [MARKET PRICE X (1+ER)] + DIVIDEND 42.879
1.890% 0 ACTUAL RETURN ON EQUITY: ER for TTM 2.071% 2.470% TTM VALUE
EXPECTED RETURN ON EQUITYUPPER: Including Risk Premium 6.514% MEAN OF FINANCIALS AND TTM
0 0 GORDON DIVIDEND RoE IMPUTED ke 7.247%
Cost of Long Term Debt 0.000% HISTORICAL 0.790
CAPM FOR COMMON STOCK E(ri) = rf + [E(rm)-rf] LOWER 7.247%
Long Term Debt 22,000 ESTIMATE THE COST OF EQUITY ON EXPECTED RoE OR CAPM?
WAAC
CAPMKe
Cost 3.70% WACC MEAN 5.130%
Short Term Debt 0
Cost 0.00% ESTIMATED SHORT-TERM RISK FREE RATE: T-BILL OR OTHER 2.850%
Revolving Debt 0 OVERALL HISTORIC MARKET RETURN 8.416%
Cost 0.00%
PERPETUITY GROWTH RATE = INFLATION 2.500%
Average Debt Cost 3.702%
PERPETUITY DISCOUNT FACTORWACC-PERPETUITY GROWTH RATE 2.630%
WACC Monte 5.130%
TIME HORIZON (YEARS) FOR SCENARIO 10
CAPM Target Price in 1 Years: 41.279
DCF PROJECTED PRICE PER SHARE AT THESE VARIABLES: 34.388
AVERAGE INTERNAL REVENUE GROWTH RATE TIMET-10,T -2.259%
Beharry, Lyndon Martin W. 2022‐07‐22_KHC_MC‐Equity‐1Million|WACCCalc 07/22/2022 15:04 | Page 8 of 17
7. Equity Valuation 2022‐07‐22_KHC_MC‐Equity‐1Million Financial Statement Review
Variables Monetary Values In 1,000,000 $USD (Except Per Share Values).
KHC: Kraft Heinz Co. | FEIN: 46‐2078182 Currency $USD Note: This sheet carries decimals to 3 places: 0.000 .
The Kraft Heinz Company, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets food and beverage products in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, and internationally. Its products include condiments and sauces, cheese and dairy
products, meals, meats, refreshment beverages, coffee, and other grocery products. The company also offers dressings, healthy snacks, and other categories; and spices and other seasonings. It sells its products through its own sales organizations, as
well as through independent brokers, agents, and distributors to chain, wholesale, cooperative and independent grocery accounts, convenience stores, drug stores, value stores, bakeries, pharmacies, mass merchants, club stores, and foodservice
distributors and institutions, including hotels, restaurants, hospitals, health care facilities, and government agencies; and online through various e‐commerce platforms and retailers. The company was formerly known as H.J. Heinz Holding Corporation
and changed its name to The Kraft Heinz Company in July 2015. The Kraft Heinz Company was founded in 1869 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (FY: 2021‐12‐25)
User may vary input into shaded cells. Complete the IncStmntReview and BalShtReview worksheets. Complete this page; then run your simulation here.
The most recent FY end (type year): 2021 Adjust Base Year for TTM Estimate Yes
Calculate Statistics through FY: 2021
Mean Historical Alternate 10.000% Coefficient of Variation Target Cut-off
Variables Estimate STDEV Rate
Revenue Growth Rate 0.246% 20.535% ‐2.259% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=8335.09% Use an alternate rate.
Alternative Revenue Growth RateDCF 0.00000% 0.000% 0.00% + / - Growth Per Annum Monte Carlo DCF: $USD KHC: Kraft Heinz Co. | FEIN: 46-2078182
Projected Growth Rate Y1 0.000% 0.000% Use Alternate Rates: Yes 0.000% 0.000%
AGGR
CoGS : f(Revenue) 63.544% 3.015% 63.266% 63.266%
Depreciation/Amortization [COGs] : f(Revenue) 9.221% 15.837% 9.221% 3.047% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=171.75% Use an alternate rate.
SGA (Only) : f(Revenue) 15.757% 3.637% 16.383% 16.383% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=23.08% Use an alternate rate.
R&D : f(Revenue) 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000%
Depreciation/Amortization [SGA] : f(Revenue) 6.179% 15.543% 6.179% 6.416% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=251.56% Use an alternate rate.
Total Other Overhead : f(Revenue) 6.179% 15.543% 6.179% 6.416% Operating expense has a high deviation=251.56% Check rates of member elements.
Other Expense (Income) : f(Revenue) -0.552% 1.244% ‐0.570% ‐0.570% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=225.64% Use an alternate rate.
Interest Expense (Income) : f(Revenue) 3.622% 2.347% 1.250% 3.678% 1.250% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=64.79% Use an alternate rate.
Tax Rate : f(EBT) 24.083% 36.336% 21.000% 17.201% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=150.88% Use an alternate rate.
Capital Expenditures : f(Revenue) 7.975% 21.037% 8.079% 8.079% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=263.78% Use an alternate rate.
Δ Working Capital : f(Revenue) 0.280% 4.759% 0.000% 0.296% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=1700.04% Use an alternate rate.
Working Capital : f(Revenue) 2.565% 8.425% 1.285% 1.285% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=328.45% Use an alternate rate.
Equity Minority Interest : f(Revenue) 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000%
Financial Ratios | FY 2021
Current 0.99227714
Acid Test 0.38007502 No Include Accounts Receivable?
Debt:Equity 0.88857882
Debt:Debt+Equity 0.47050132
RoA (Adjusted for D&A) 0.0109643
RoE 0.02070695
Gordon Dividend Payout Model:
Book Value of the Firm $USD1,000,000 49,452
Book Value Per Share BV0 40.534
Dividend Growth Rate (Gordon Model) gn 160.962% 0.000% Δ KE : [CAPM - Gordon]
ke = [(RoE - gn ) X (BV0 / P0)] + gn 7.247% No Actual RoE (Yes); Expected RoE (No)
P0/BV0 = PBV = [(RoE-gn)/(ke-gn) 0.94956321
Price Multiple : BV0 0.950
Forecast Share Price From Multiple X BV0 38.490
Static Model: DCF Valuation Per Share 34.388 Growth Rate: 0.00% less 0.00% each subsequent year after T₁.
$USD 34.388
VARIABLES FOR WACC CALCULATIONS
Market and CAPM Modelling 2.850% Risk‐Free Rate (T‐Bill/Bond/Note, LIBOR or other imputed rate)
8.416% Overall historic Market Return
Equity Share Variables 38.490 Current Market Price of Common Stock
1.600 Dividend, if applicable
0.790 eta
2.470% Return on Equity TTM
15.000% Expected Return on Equity
1,220.000 Current Shares Outstanding (diluted) Including Treasury Holdings in 1,000,000's
Preferred Share Variables Current Market Price of Preferred Stock: A, if applicable
0 Current shares outstanding 1,000,000
Preferred: A stock coupon
Current Market Price of Preferred Stock: B, if applicable
0 Current shares outstanding 1,000,000
Preferred: B stock coupon
Current Market Price of Preferred Stock: C, if applicable
0 Current shares outstanding 1,000,000
Preferred: C stock coupon
Current Market Price of Preferred Stock: D, if applicable
0 Current shares outstanding 1,000,000
Preferred: D stock coupon
0 Weighted Number of Preferred Shares Outstanding
0.000% Weighted Cost (Coupon) of Preferred Shares Outstanding
0.000 Weighted Market Price of Preferred
Perpetuity Growth Rate Inflation Long‐term Growth Rate (for perpetuity model)
2.500% Long‐Term Inflation Rate
3.580% Average Long‐Term Inflation Rate: U.S.A.
7.247% CAPM KE
Basis of WACC Calculation
WAAC
CAPMKe
CALCULATE DISCOUNT RATE VARYING EQUITY WEIGHTING:
WACC, CAPM, GORDON RoE, AVERAGE OF CAPM AND GORDON RoE?
Yes VARY WACC AROUND ITS MEAN?
2.000% AT THIS COEFFICIENT OF VARIATION ( PERCENT OF THE MEAN).
5.130% WACC FOR SIMULATION
ALTERNATE PLUG FOR WACC DISCOUNT FACTOR
Forecast Results Summary Per Share 37.770 P/E Valuation 45.000 PE Forward
42.879 CAPM Valuation No Revenue Growth
38.490 BV0 Multiple Valuation
34.388 Static DCF Valuation
35.496 Monte Carlo DCF Valuation
37.805 of All Models Valuation
Monte Carlo Analysis: 35.496 Monte Carlo DCF 2.500
155.517 Monte Carlo Upper 155.517
(112.956) Monte Carlo Lower (112.956)
268.473 Monte Carlo Range
756.342% Range:Mean
Student's t Distribution
The header (top) is higher | lower than the complement (left).
Ratio Comparison of the Models P/E CAPM Gordon BV0 Static DCF MC DCF Models
P/E 0.000% 13.526% 1.905% ‐8.954% ‐6.021% 0.091%
CAPM ‐11.915% 0.000% ‐10.237% ‐19.802% ‐17.218% ‐11.834%
Gordon BV0 ‐1.869% 11.404% 0.000% ‐10.656% ‐7.778% ‐1.780%
Static DCF 9.835% 24.691% 11.927% 0.000% 3.222% 9.935%
MC DCF 6.407% 20.800% 8.434% ‐3.121% 0.000% 6.504%
Models ‐0.091% 13.423% 1.812% ‐9.037% ‐6.107% 0.000%
Beharry, Lyndon Martin W. 2022‐07‐22_KHC_MC‐Equity‐1Million|Variables 07/22/2022 15:04 | Page 9 of 17