6. Equity Valuation 2022‐07‐13_AAPL‐MC‐Equity Financial Statement Review
Statement of Cash Flows
CashFlows
1,000,000 $USD 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
CashFlow from Operating Activities: CFO 17,294 6,357 31,781 54,687 33,277 72,385 61,699 38,553 60,863 109,177 6,606 90,120 137,575 9,355
Indirect Method
Net Income 6,119 8,235 14,013 26,029 53,367 37,037 39,510 53,394 45,687 48,351 59,531 55,256 57,411 94,680 0
Adjustments
D&A 496 734 1,027 1,814 3,277 6,757 7,946 11,257 10,505 10,157 10,903 12,547 11,056 11,284 0
Deferred Taxes 1,447 1,135 1,636 2,014 2,583 3,453 4,318 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Decrease / (Increase) in Accounts Receivables ‐2,635 ‐4,867 ‐1,793 ‐6,975 ‐1,949 ‐6,578 ‐3,124 1,044 ‐6,374 ‐13,322 12,747 19,553 9,395 22,926
Increase / (Decrease) in Inventories 54 ‐596 275 ‐15 ‐973 ‐347 ‐238 217 ‐2,723 899 749 794 ‐1,725 4,106
Increase / (Decrease) in Accounts Payable ‐81 ‐6,414 ‐2,617 ‐6,543 ‐1,192 ‐7,829 ‐5,294 ‐1,804 ‐11,755 ‐6,839 2,813 6,753 ‐5,714 46,236
Increase / (Decrease) in Accrued Interest Receivable
Gain / (Loss) on Sale of Property
CashFlow from Investing Activities: CFI 7,442 4,799 25,722 45,694 43,133 37,020 55,995 55,649 37,656 51,172 84,112 95,567 107,920
Indirect Method
Cash from Sale of Marketable Securities 37,419 54,133 3,240 155,576
Cash from Sale of Land
Cash from Sale of Other Assets 4,342 5,225 5,270
Purchase of Plant & Equipment ‐2,664 ‐3,928 ‐10,718 ‐6,469 ‐5,953 ‐901 ‐4,148 ‐7,521 ‐9,195
CashFlow from Financing Activities: CFF ‐2,664 ‐3,928 ‐10,718 4,342 ‐6,469 ‐5,953 ‐901 ‐4,148 29,898 44,938 8,465 5,270 155,576
Indirect Method
Cash from Sale of Equity 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Cash from Sale of Debt 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Cash Interest Paid for Debt 0 0 0 0 ‐136 0 ‐384 ‐733 ‐1,456 ‐2,323 ‐3,240 ‐3,576 ‐2,873 ‐2,645 0
Cash Paid to Redeem Debt 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ‐10,999 ‐606 ‐6,868 ‐2,275 18,473 18,473 18,473 0
Cash paid for Dividends 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Beharry, Lyndon Martin W. 2022‐07‐13_AAPL‐MC‐Equity|CashFlows 07/14/2022 01:31 Page 6 of 17
7. Equity Valuation 2022‐07‐13_AAPL‐MC‐Equity Financial Statement Review
Complex Debt
ForEx Carrying Conversion 1,000,000 $USD
Currency Value Rate Long-Term Debt Australian Dollar AUD NA
MatDate Coupon Value Annual Canadian Dollar CND NA
USD NA 0.555% 1,750.000 10 Chinese Yuan CNY NA
USD NA 2.405% 95,813.000 2,304 European Union EUR NA
USD NA 1.780% 14,000.000 249 Korean Won KRW NA
USD NA 2.145% 6,500.000 139 South Africa Rand ZAR NA
USD NA 0.000% ‐380.000 0 Swiss CHF NA
USD NA 0.000% 1,036.000 0 US Dollar USD NA
USD NA 0.000% ‐9,613.000 0
USD NA 0.000% 0.000 0
USD NA 0.000% 0.000 0
USD NA 0.000% 0.000 0
USD NA 0.000% 0.000 0
USD NA 0.000% 0.000 0
USD NA 0.000% 0.000 0
USD NA 0.000% 0.000 0
USD NA 0.000% 0.000 0
USD NA 0.000% 0.000 0
USD NA 0.000% 0.000 0
USD NA 0.000% 0.000 0
USD NA 0.000% 0.000 0
USD NA 0.000% 0.000 0
USD NA 0.000% 0.000 0
USD NA 0.000% 0.000 0
USD NA 0.000% 0.000 0
USD NA 0.000% 0.000 0
USD NA 0.000% 0.000 0
EUR NA 0.000% 0.000 0
EUR NA 0.000% 0.000 0
USD NA 0.000% 0.000 0
CND NA 0.000% 0.000 0
USD NA 0.000% 0.000 0
USD NA 0.000% 0.000 0
USD NA 0.000% 0.000 0
USD NA 0.000% 0.000 0
USD NA 0.000% 0.000 0
USD NA 0.000% 0.000 0
USD NA 0.000% 0.000 0
USD NA 0.000 0
USD NA 0.000 0
USD NA 0.000 0
USD NA 0.000 0
USD NA 0.000 0
USD NA 0.000 0
USD NA 0.000 0
USD NA 0.000 0
0.00000 0.000 0
0.00000 0.000 0
0.00000 0.000 0
0.00000 0.000 0
0.00000 0.000 0
0.00000 0.000 0
0.00000 0.000 0
0.00000 0.000 0
0.00000 0.000 0
0.00000 0.000 0
0.00000 0.000 0
0.00000 0.000 0
0.00000 0.000 0
0.00000 0.000 0
0.00000 0.000 0
0.00000 0.000 0
0.00000 0.000 0
0.00000 0.000 0
0.00000 0.000 0
0.00000 0.000 0
0.00000 0.000 0
0.00000 0.000 0
0.00000 0.000 0
0.00000 0.000 0
0.00000 0.000 0
0.00000 0.000 0
0.00000 0.000 0
0.00000 0.000 0
0.00000 0.000 0
0.00000 0.000 0
0.00000 0.000 0
…
109,106 2,703
2.477%
Beharry, Lyndon Martin W. 2022‐07‐13_AAPL‐MC‐Equity|Complex Debt 07/14/2022 01:31 Page 7 of 17
8. Equity Valuation 2022‐07‐13_AAPL‐MC‐Equity Financial Statement Review
AAPL: Apple, Inc. | FEIN: 94‐2404110 WACCCalc ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT AND LONG‐TERM LIABILITIES Yes
DCF analysis will deduct the total value of
liabilities from the firm's cash position.
Functional Currency: 1,000,000 $USD DCF ACCOUNTS FOR CASH AND ALL OTHER ASSETS (YES); ONLY CASH AND SHORT‐TERM (NO) No
To assess liquidity at T₀, DCF analysis will
deduct Balance Sheet Liabilities from Cash +
Short‐term securities.
Debt B Calculations [for Weighted Average Cost of Debt]: FIRE SALE VALUE FOR ASSETS OTHER THAN CASH: 85.000%
1,000,000
Long-Term Debt COST OF DEBT 2.477%
MatDate Coupon Value Annual TAX ADJUSTED 1.982%
2018‐09‐01 8.000% 0 OUTSTANDING DEBT OBLIGATIONS 248,028
2.700% 0 0 $USD CURRENCY COST OF DEBT ISSUE. 252,943
1.550% 0 0
6.800% 0 0
2.250% 0 0 COST OF PREFERRED STOCK 0.000%
2.960% 0 0 WEIGHTED MARKET PRICE OF PREFERRED STOCK 0.000
2.400% 0 0 WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF OUTSTANDING PREFERRED STOCK 0
2.150% 0 0 $USD CURRENCY COST OF PREFERRED CAPITAL. 0
2.400% 0 0
2.850% 0 0
2.550% 0 0 MARKET PRICE OF COMMON STOCK 145.860
3.500% 0 0 RECENT SHARES OUT 16,190
4.625% 0 0 OUTSTANDING COMMON STOCK: ESTIMATETTM = AVG(RECENT,10K FIGURE) 10,317 Adjusted for Treasury Stock
4.540% 0 RETAINED EARNINGS 45,898
4.580% 0 $USD CURRENCY COST OF COMMON CAPITAL: CAPITALIZATION. 1,933,128 90,488 BALANCE SHEET SE
1.920% 0
2.610% 0 DIVIDEND IN $USD 0.920
2.840% 0 DIVIDEND YIELD RATE 0.631%
4.150% 0 ONE YR EXPECTED $USD RETURN PER SHARE = [MARKET PRICE X (1+ER)] + DIVIDEND 165.083
1.890% 0 ACTUAL RETURN ON EQUITY: ER for TTM 150.071% 145.000% TTM VALUE
EXPECTED RETURN ON EQUITYUPPER: Including Risk Premium 35.000% MEAN OF FINANCIALS AND TTM
0 0 GORDON DIVIDEND RoE IMPUTED ke 7.748%
Cost of Long Term Debt 0.000% HISTORICAL 1.190
CAPM FOR COMMON STOCK E(ri) = rf + [E(rm)-rf] LOWER 12.549%
Long Term Debt 109,106 ESTIMATE THE COST OF EQUITY ON EXPECTED RoE OR CAPM?
WAAC
CAPMKe
Cost 2.48% WACC MEAN 11.326%
Short Term Debt 0
Cost 0.00% ESTIMATED SHORT-TERM RISK FREE RATE: T-BILL OR OTHER 2.850%
Revolving Debt 0 OVERALL HISTORIC MARKET RETURN 11.000%
Cost 0.00%
PERPETUITY GROWTH RATE = INFLATION 2.500%
Average Debt Cost 2.477%
PERPETUITY DISCOUNT FACTORWACC-PERPETUITY GROWTH RATE 4.581%
WACC Monte 7.081%
TIME HORIZON (YEARS) FOR SCENARIO 10
CAPM Target Price in 1 Years: 164.163
DCF PROJECTED PRICE PER SHARE AT THESE VARIABLES: 160.569
AVERAGE INTERNAL REVENUE GROWTH RATE TIMET-10,T 16.070%
Beharry, Lyndon Martin W. 2022‐07‐13_AAPL‐MC‐Equity|WACCCalc 07/14/2022 01:31 Page 8 of 17
9. Equity Valuation 2022‐07‐13_AAPL‐MC‐Equity Financial Statement Review
Variables Monetary Values In 1,000,000 $USD (Except Per Share Values).
AAPL: Apple, Inc. | FEIN: 94‐2404110 Currency $USD Note: This sheet carries decimals to 3 places: 0.000 .
Apple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets mobile communication and media devices, and personal computers to consumers, and small and mid‐sized businesses; and education, enterprise, and government customers worldwide. The
company also sells related software, services, accessories, networking solutions, and third‐party digital content and applications. It offers iPhone, a line of smartphones; iPad, a line of multi‐purpose tablets; and Mac, a line of desktop and
portable personal computers, as well as iOS, macOS, watchOS, and tvOS operating systems. The company also provides iWork, a productivity suite that helps users create, present, and publish documents, presentations, and spreadsheets;
and other application software... (FY: 2018‐09‐30)
User may vary input into shaded cells. Complete the IncStmntReview and BalShtReview worksheets. Complete this page; then run your simulation here.
The most recent FY end (type year): 2022 Adjust Base Year for TTM Estimate Yes
Calculate Statistics through FY: 2021
Mean Historical Alternate 10.000% Coefficient of Variation Target Cut-off
Variables Estimate STDEV Rate
Revenue Growth Rate 20.937% 22.278% 16.070% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=106.40% Use an alternate rate.
Alternative Revenue Growth RateDCF 8.00000% 0.800% 0.00% + / - Growth Per Annum Monte Carlo DCF: $USD AAPL: Apple, Inc. | FEIN: 94-2404110
Projected Growth Rate Y1 8.000% 0.800% Use Alternate Rates: Yes 8.000% 0.800%
AGGR
CoGS : f(Revenue) 57.436% 2.240% 56.789% 56.789%
Depreciation/Amortization [COGs] : f(Revenue) 3.346% 1.375% 3.824% 3.824% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=41.11% Use an alternate rate.
SGA (Only) : f(Revenue) 7.173% 1.289% 6.689% 6.689% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=17.97% Use an alternate rate.
R&D : f(Revenue) 1.131% 1.593% 4.652% 4.652% 4.652% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=140.75% Use an alternate rate.
Depreciation/Amortization [SGA] : f(Revenue) 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000%
Total Other Overhead : f(Revenue) 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000%
Other Expense (Income) : f(Revenue) -1.640% 1.893% ‐1.669% ‐1.669% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=115.40% Use an alternate rate.
Interest Expense (Income) : f(Revenue) 0.476% 0.516% 1.250% 0.666% 1.250% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=108.35% Use an alternate rate.
Tax Rate : f(EBT) 23.108% 5.802% 20.000% 21.007% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=25.11% Use an alternate rate.
Capital Expenditures : f(Revenue) 5.633% 1.880% 5.682% 5.682% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=33.38% Use an alternate rate.
Δ Working Capital : f(Revenue) 0.132% 11.923% 0.000% 2.021% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=9043.86% Use an alternate rate.
Working Capital : f(Revenue) 17.633% 14.875% 12.119% 12.119% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=84.36% Use an alternate rate.
Equity Minority Interest : f(Revenue) 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000%
Financial Ratios | FY 2021
Current 1.07455312
Acid Test 0.49919111 No Include Accounts Receivable?
Debt:Equity 4.56351244
Debt:Debt+Equity 0.82025743
RoA (Adjusted for D&A) 0.26974205
RoE 1.50071327
Gordon Dividend Payout Model:
Book Value of the Firm $USD1,000,000 63,090
Book Value Per Share BV0 3.897
Dividend Growth Rate (Gordon Model) gn 7.000% 4.800% Δ KE : [CAPM - Gordon]
ke = [(RoE - gn ) X (BV0 / P0)] + gn 7.748% No Actual RoE (Yes); Expected RoE (No)
P0/BV0 = PBV = [(RoE-gn)/(ke-gn) 37.430233
Price Multiple : BV0 37.430
Forecast Share Price From Multiple X BV0 145.860
Static Model: DCF Valuation Per Share 160.569 Growth Rate: 8.00% less 0.00% each subsequent year after T₁.
$USD 160.569
VARIABLES FOR WACC CALCULATIONS
Market and CAPM Modelling 2.850% Risk‐Free Rate (T‐Bill/Bond/Note, LIBOR or other imputed rate)
11.000% Overall historic Market Return
Equity Share Variables 145.860 Current Market Price of Common Stock
0.920 Dividend, if applicable
1.190 eta
145.000% Return on Equity TTM
35.000% Expected Return on Equity
16,190 Current Shares Outstanding (diluted) Including Treasury Holdings in 1,000,000's
Preferred Share Variables Current Market Price of Preferred Stock: A, if applicable
0 Current shares outstanding 1,000,000
Preferred: A stock coupon
Current Market Price of Preferred Stock: B, if applicable
0 Current shares outstanding 1,000,000
Preferred: B stock coupon
Current Market Price of Preferred Stock: C, if applicable
0 Current shares outstanding 1,000,000
Preferred: C stock coupon
Current Market Price of Preferred Stock: D, if applicable
0 Current shares outstanding 1,000,000
Preferred: D stock coupon
0 Weighted Number of Preferred Shares Outstanding
0.000% Weighted Cost (Coupon) of Preferred Shares Outstanding
0.000 Weighted Market Price of Preferred
Perpetuity Growth Rate Inflation Long‐term Growth Rate (for perpetuity model)
2.500% Long‐Term Inflation Rate
3.580% Average Long‐Term Inflation Rate: U.S.A.
12.549% CAPM KE
Basis of WACC Calculation
WACC
Gordon RoE
CALCULATE DISCOUNT RATE VARYING EQUITY WEIGHTING:
WACC, CAPM, GORDON RoE, AVERAGE OF CAPM AND GORDON RoE?
Yes VARY WACC AROUND ITS MEAN?
2.000% AT THIS COEFFICIENT OF VARIATION ( PERCENT OF THE MEAN).
7.081% WACC FOR SIMULATION
ALTERNATE PLUG FOR WACC DISCOUNT FACTOR
Forecast Results Summary Per Share 146.201 P/E Valuation 25.000 PE Forward
165.083 CAPM Valuation 3.1250 Imputed or Projected PEG
145.860 BV0 Multiple Valuation
160.569 Static DCF Valuation
167.160 Monte Carlo DCF Valuation
156.975 of All Models Valuation
Monte Carlo Analysis: 167.160 Monte Carlo DCF 2.500
311.428 Monte Carlo Upper 311.428
32.650 Monte Carlo Lower 32.650
278.778 Monte Carlo Range
166.773% Range:Mean
Lognormal Distribution
The header (top) is higher | lower than the complement (left).
Ratio Comparison of the Models P/E CAPM Gordon BV0 Static DCF MC DCF Models
P/E 0.000% 12.915% ‐0.233% 9.828% 14.335% 7.369%
CAPM ‐11.438% 0.000% ‐11.645% ‐2.734% 1.258% ‐4.912%
Gordon BV0 0.234% 13.179% 0.000% 10.085% 14.603% 7.620%
Static DCF ‐8.948% 2.811% ‐9.161% 0.000% 4.104% ‐2.239%
MC DCF ‐12.538% ‐1.242% ‐12.742% ‐3.942% 0.000% ‐6.093%
Models ‐6.863% 5.165% ‐7.081% 2.290% 6.488% 0.000%
Beharry, Lyndon Martin W. 2022‐07‐13_AAPL‐MC‐Equity|Variables 07/14/2022 01:31 Page 9 of 17