I valued Biogen back in 2014 for an old friend, and I have looked in on it sporadically over the years. I did not like it back in the 2010s because it had too many competing therapies for multiple schlerosis (from my 2014 report here https://www.slideshare.net/LMBeharry/biib-reportlmbenterprises-59573190):
"• Several of the product offerings address multiple sclerosis, and these pharma products will likely begin cannibalizing each other within the intermediate term. The analyst believes that this cannibalization will curtail growth within the MS product line within the next 18 to 24 months."
and
"• The firm has submitted hemophilia agents, Factor VIII and Factor IX to the US FDA for regulatory review, anticipating marketing approval in 2014-2015. As these hemophilia products are administered orally, analysts expect sales to grow robustly indeed. (i.e. more doctors will prescribe the treatment as it circumvents costly and frequent recurrent need of infusion of clotting factor). Statistics indicate that roughly 20,000 US residents suffer with hemophilia. A market of 20,000 patients is not a growth sector."
Note that I have not kept up with its pipeline, nor its successes/failures at clinical trial. This printout is solely an exercise in econometric analysis using its historical cost structure to derive an equity valuation.
If you are curious about its current research endeavors, I provide the link for clinical trials here (already sorted for Biogen): https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/results?cond=&term=Biogen&cntry=&state=&city=&dist=
8. Equity Valuation 2022‐07‐15_BIIB_MC‐Equity‐Trials Financial Statement Review
BIIB: Biogen Inc. | FEIN 33‐0112644 WACCCalc ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT AND LONG‐TERM LIABILITIES Yes
DCF analysis will deduct the total value of
liabilities from the firm's cash position.
Functional Currency: 1,000,000 $USD DCF ACCOUNTS FOR CASH AND ALL OTHER ASSETS (YES); ONLY CASH AND SHORT‐TERM (NO) No
To assess liquidity at T₀, DCF analysis will
deduct Balance Sheet Liabilities from Cash +
Short‐term securities.
Debt B Calculations [for Weighted Average Cost of Debt]: FIRE SALE VALUE FOR ASSETS OTHER THAN CASH: 85.000%
1,000,000
Long-Term Debt COST OF DEBT 3.720%
MatDate Coupon Value Annual TAX ADJUSTED 2.939%
2018‐09‐01 8.000% 0 OUTSTANDING DEBT OBLIGATIONS 13,895
2.700% 0 0 $USD CURRENCY COST OF DEBT ISSUE. 14,304
1.550% 0 0
6.800% 0 0
2.250% 0 0 COST OF PREFERRED STOCK 0.000%
2.960% 0 0 WEIGHTED MARKET PRICE OF PREFERRED STOCK 0.000
2.400% 0 0 WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF OUTSTANDING PREFERRED STOCK 0
2.150% 0 0 $USD CURRENCY COST OF PREFERRED CAPITAL. 0
2.400% 0 0
2.850% 0 0
2.550% 0 0 MARKET PRICE OF COMMON STOCK 217.010
3.500% 0 0 RECENT SHARES OUT 146
4.625% 0 0 OUTSTANDING COMMON STOCK: ESTIMATETTM = AVG(RECENT,10K FIGURE) 179 Adjusted for Treasury Stock
4.540% 0 RETAINED EARNINGS 16,455
4.580% 0 $USD CURRENCY COST OF COMMON CAPITAL: CAPITALIZATION. 35,294 13,339 BALANCE SHEET SE
1.920% 0
2.610% 0 DIVIDEND IN $USD 0.000
2.840% 0 DIVIDEND YIELD RATE 0.000%
4.150% 0 ONE YR EXPECTED $USD RETURN PER SHARE = [MARKET PRICE X (1+ER)] + DIVIDEND 226.284
1.890% 0 ACTUAL RETURN ON EQUITY: ER for TTM 14.198% 14.090% TTM VALUE
EXPECTED RETURN ON EQUITYUPPER: Including Risk Premium 14.429% MEAN OF FINANCIALS AND TTM
0 0 GORDON DIVIDEND RoE IMPUTED ke 8.448%
Cost of Long Term Debt 0.000% HISTORICAL 0.390
CAPM FOR COMMON STOCK E(ri) = rf + [E(rm)-rf] LOWER 4.274%
Long Term Debt 7,426 ESTIMATE THE COST OF EQUITY ON EXPECTED RoE OR CAPM?
WAAC
CAPMKe
Cost 3.72% WACC MEAN 3.889%
Short Term Debt 0
Cost 0.00% ESTIMATED SHORT-TERM RISK FREE RATE: T-BILL OR OTHER 2.850%
Revolving Debt 0 OVERALL HISTORIC MARKET RETURN 6.500%
Cost 0.00%
PERPETUITY GROWTH RATE = INFLATION 2.500%
Average Debt Cost 3.720%
PERPETUITY DISCOUNT FACTORWACC-PERPETUITY GROWTH RATE 4.360%
WACC Monte 6.860%
TIME HORIZON (YEARS) FOR SCENARIO 10
CAPM Target Price in 1 Years: 226.284
DCF PROJECTED PRICE PER SHARE AT THESE VARIABLES: 299.016
AVERAGE INTERNAL REVENUE GROWTH RATE TIMET-10,T
Beharry, Lyndon Martin W. 2022‐07‐15_BIIB_MC‐Equity‐Trials|WACCCalc 07/15/2022 18:15 Page 8 of 17
9. Equity Valuation 2022‐07‐15_BIIB_MC‐Equity‐Trials Financial Statement Review
Variables Monetary Values In 1,000,000 $USD (Except Per Share Values).
BIIB: Biogen Inc. | FEIN 33‐0112644 Currency $USD Note: This sheet carries decimals to 3 places: 0.000 .
Biogen is a global biopharmaceutical company focused on discovering, developing and delivering worldwide innovative therapies for people living with serious neurological and neurodegenerative diseases as well as
related therapeutic adjacencies. Our core growth areas include multiple sclerosis (MS) and neuroimmunology; Alzheimer’s disease and dementia; neuromuscular disorders, including spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) and
amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS); movement disorders, including Parkinson's disease; ophthalmology; and neuropsychiatry. We are also focused on discovering, developing and delivering worldwide innovative
therapies in our emerging growth areas of immunology; acute neurology; and neuropathic pain... (FY: 2020‐12‐31)
User may vary input into shaded cells. Complete the IncStmntReview and BalShtReview worksheets. Complete this page; then run your simulation here.
The most recent FY end (type year): 2022 Adjust Base Year for TTM Estimate Yes
Calculate Statistics through FY: 2021
Mean Historical Alternate 10.000% Coefficient of Variation Target Cut-off
Variables Estimate STDEV Rate
Revenue Growth Rate 8.822% 14.293% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=162.02% Use an alternate rate.
Alternative Revenue Growth RateDCF 0.00000% 0.000% 0.00% + / - Growth Per Annum Monte Carlo DCF: $USD BIIB: Biogen Inc. | FEIN 33-0112644
Projected Growth Rate Y1 0.000% 0.000% Use Alternate Rates: Yes 0.000% 0.000%
AGGR
CoGS : f(Revenue) 6.167% 4.368% 7.250% 7.250% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=70.83% Use an alternate rate.
Depreciation/Amortization [COGs] : f(Revenue) 10.841% 2.959% 5.640% 5.640% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=27.30% Use an alternate rate.
SGA (Only) : f(Revenue) 23.551% 4.994% 21.935% 21.935% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=21.21% Use an alternate rate.
R&D : f(Revenue) 8.173% 4.490% 21.159% 21.159% 21.159% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=54.93% Use an alternate rate.
Depreciation/Amortization [SGA] : f(Revenue) 4.834% 1.499% 4.802% 4.802% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=31.00% Use an alternate rate.
Total Other Overhead : f(Revenue) 4.834% 1.499% 4.834% 4.802% Operating expense has a high deviation=31.00% Check rates of member elements.
Other Expense (Income) : f(Revenue) -0.239% 3.399% ‐0.287% ‐0.287% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=1424.92% Use an alternate rate.
Interest Expense (Income) : f(Revenue) 0.993% 0.704% 1.250% 1.137% 1.250% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=70.84% Use an alternate rate.
Tax Rate : f(EBT) 24.211% 9.645% 21.000% 24.742% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=39.84% Use an alternate rate.
Capital Expenditures : f(Revenue) 11.728% 4.090% 11.602% 11.602% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=34.87% Use an alternate rate.
Δ Working Capital : f(Revenue) -2.381% 6.938% -5.000% ‐1.364% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=291.37% Use an alternate rate.
Working Capital : f(Revenue) 32.526% 7.770% 31.257% 31.257% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=23.89% Use an alternate rate.
Equity Minority Interest : f(Revenue) 0.135% 0.833% 0.135% 0.135% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=615.29% Use an alternate rate.
Financial Ratios | FY 2021
Current 1.82785817
Acid Test 0.88467265 No Include Accounts Receivable?
Debt:Equity 1.1786454
Debt:Debt+Equity 0.54099919
RoA (Adjusted for D&A) 0.06517069
RoE 0.14198381
Gordon Dividend Payout Model:
Book Value of the Firm $USD1,000,000 10,960
Book Value Per Share BV0 74.836
Dividend Growth Rate (Gordon Model) gn 5.000% -4.175% Δ KE : [CAPM - Gordon]
ke = [(RoE - gn ) X (BV0 / P0)] + gn 8.448% No Actual RoE (Yes); Expected RoE (No)
P0/BV0 = PBV = [(RoE-gn)/(ke-gn) 2.8998161
Price Multiple : BV0 2.900
Forecast Share Price From Multiple X BV0 217.010
Static Model: DCF Valuation Per Share 299.016 Growth Rate: 0.00% less 0.00% each subsequent year after T₁.
$USD 299.016
VARIABLES FOR WACC CALCULATIONS
Market and CAPM Modelling 2.850% Risk‐Free Rate (T‐Bill/Bond/Note, LIBOR or other imputed rate)
6.500% Overall historic Market Return
Equity Share Variables 217.010 Current Market Price of Common Stock
0.000 Dividend, if applicable
0.390 eta
14.090% Return on Equity TTM
15.000% Expected Return on Equity
146.450 Current Shares Outstanding (diluted) Including Treasury Holdings in 1,000,000's
Preferred Share Variables Current Market Price of Preferred Stock: A, if applicable
0 Current shares outstanding 1,000,000
Preferred: A stock coupon
Current Market Price of Preferred Stock: B, if applicable
0 Current shares outstanding 1,000,000
Preferred: B stock coupon
Current Market Price of Preferred Stock: C, if applicable
0 Current shares outstanding 1,000,000
Preferred: C stock coupon
Current Market Price of Preferred Stock: D, if applicable
0 Current shares outstanding 1,000,000
Preferred: D stock coupon
0 Weighted Number of Preferred Shares Outstanding
0.000% Weighted Cost (Coupon) of Preferred Shares Outstanding
0.000 Weighted Market Price of Preferred
Perpetuity Growth Rate Inflation Long‐term Growth Rate (for perpetuity model)
2.500% Long‐Term Inflation Rate
3.580% Average Long‐Term Inflation Rate: U.S.A.
4.274% CAPM KE
Basis of WACC Calculation
WACC
Gordon RoE
CALCULATE DISCOUNT RATE VARYING EQUITY WEIGHTING:
WACC, CAPM, GORDON RoE, AVERAGE OF CAPM AND GORDON RoE?
Yes VARY WACC AROUND ITS MEAN?
2.000% AT THIS COEFFICIENT OF VARIATION ( PERCENT OF THE MEAN).
6.860% WACC FOR SIMULATION
ALTERNATE PLUG FOR WACC DISCOUNT FACTOR
Forecast Results Summary Per Share 212.509 P/E Valuation 20.000 PE Forward
226.284 CAPM Valuation No Revenue Growth
217.010 BV0 Multiple Valuation
299.016 Static DCF Valuation
294.181 Monte Carlo DCF Valuation
249.800 of All Models Valuation
Monte Carlo Analysis: 294.181 Monte Carlo DCF 2.500
483.895 Monte Carlo Upper 483.895
140.600 Monte Carlo Lower 140.600
343.295 Monte Carlo Range
116.695% Range:Mean
Lognormal Distribution
The header (top) is higher | lower than the complement (left).
Ratio Comparison of the Models P/E CAPM Gordon BV0 Static DCF MC DCF Models
P/E 0.000% 6.482% 2.118% 40.707% 38.432% 17.548%
CAPM ‐6.087% 0.000% ‐4.098% 32.142% 30.005% 10.392%
Gordon BV0 ‐2.074% 4.274% 0.000% 37.789% 35.561% 15.110%
Static DCF ‐28.930% ‐24.324% ‐27.425% 0.000% ‐1.617% ‐16.459%
MC DCF ‐27.762% ‐23.080% ‐26.233% 1.643% 0.000% ‐15.086%
Models ‐14.928% ‐9.414% ‐13.127% 19.702% 17.767% 0.000%
Beharry, Lyndon Martin W. 2022‐07‐15_BIIB_MC‐Equity‐Trials|Variables 07/15/2022 18:15 Page 9 of 17