I spent the morning updating BBBY: Bed Bath and Beyond. Crazy SGA volatility coupled with Covid quarantines to cripple this long-time Brick & Mortar household goods brand. The firm has some culture *problems*. Notably, stores were traditionally free to run themselves, carrying product lines local management surmised the local community cherished. Hence, there were never any true scale economies in purchasing inventory. Other problems include over-reliance on brick and mortar stores to the detriment of internet marketing; an *early/long-time* history of coupons which never expired; *early/long-time* history of "free" shipping; and other things.
On the plus side, BBBY owns much of its real property and has long-term leases on other holdings. These valuable items are still booked at acquisition costs (c. 1970s-80s real property values) and would generate substantial returns if the firm would transition to a more robust online presence and lease out much of its brick and mortar network. Only time will tell; if, that is, the firm is able to weather the next likely terrible 24 months of horrendous sales...
Monte Carlo DCF projections reflect HUGE volatility. At 0.00% revenue growth, the model returns a range of valuation from a low of -$260.02 (yes, that is a negative number) and up to a maximum of +$256. I had reviewed BBBY way back in 2019, and I think that SWOT analysis is still useful, so I tacked it onto this quantitative analytical summary.
Bed Bath & Beyond Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a chain of retail stores. It sells a range of domestics merchandise, including bed linens and related items, bath items, and kitchen textiles; and home furnishings, such as kitchen and tabletop items, fine tabletop, basic housewares, general home furnishings, consumables, and various juvenile products. As of February 26, 2022, the company had 953 stores, which included 771 Bed Bath & Beyond stores in 50 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Canada; 130 buybuy BABY stores in 37 states and Canada; and 52 stores in 6 states under the names Harmon, Harmon Face Values or Face Values. It also offers products through various Websites and applications comprising bedbathandbeyond.com, bedbathandbeyond.ca, harmondiscount.com, facevalues.com, buybuybaby.com, buybuybaby.ca, and decorist.com. In addition, the company operates Decorist, an online interior design platform that provides personalized home design services. Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. was incorporated in 1971 and is headquartered in Union, New Jersey.
9. Equity Valuation 2022‐07‐19_BBBY_MC‐Equity‐1Million Financial Statement Review
BBBY: Bed Bath & Beyond | FEIN: 11‐2250488 WACCCalc ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT AND LONG‐TERM LIABILITIES Yes
DCF analysis will deduct the total value of
liabilities from the firm's cash position.
Functional Currency: 1,000 $USD DCF ACCOUNTS FOR CASH AND ALL OTHER ASSETS (YES); ONLY CASH AND SHORT‐TERM (NO) No
To assess liquidity at T₀, DCF analysis will
deduct Balance Sheet Liabilities from Cash +
Short‐term securities.
Debt B Calculations [for Weighted Average Cost of Debt]: FIRE SALE VALUE FOR ASSETS OTHER THAN CASH: 85.000%
1,000
Long-Term Debt COST OF DEBT 4.832%
MatDate Coupon Value Annual TAX ADJUSTED 3.817%
2018‐09‐01 8.000% 0 OUTSTANDING DEBT OBLIGATIONS 4,956,427
2.700% 0 0 $USD CURRENCY COST OF DEBT ISSUE. 5,145,620
1.550% 0 0
6.800% 0 0
2.250% 0 0 COST OF PREFERRED STOCK 0.000%
2.960% 0 0 WEIGHTED MARKET PRICE OF PREFERRED STOCK 0.000
2.400% 0 0 WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF OUTSTANDING PREFERRED STOCK 0
2.150% 0 0 $USD CURRENCY COST OF PREFERRED CAPITAL. 0
2.400% 0 0
2.850% 0 0
2.550% 0 0 MARKET PRICE OF COMMON STOCK 5.360
3.500% 0 0 RECENT SHARES OUT 79,960
4.625% 0 0 OUTSTANDING COMMON STOCK: ESTIMATETTM = AVG(RECENT,10K FIGURE) 212,053 Adjusted for Treasury Stock
4.540% 0 RETAINED EARNINGS 9,666,091
4.580% 0 $USD CURRENCY COST OF COMMON CAPITAL: CAPITALIZATION. 782,595 174,145 BALANCE SHEET SE
1.920% 0
2.610% 0 DIVIDEND IN $USD 0.000
2.840% 0 DIVIDEND YIELD RATE 0.000%
4.150% 0 ONE YR EXPECTED $USD RETURN PER SHARE = [MARKET PRICE X (1+ER)] + DIVIDEND 6.109
1.890% 0 ACTUAL RETURN ON EQUITY: ER for TTM ‐321.355% 10.000% TTM VALUE
EXPECTED RETURN ON EQUITYUPPER: Including Risk Premium ‐100.452% MEAN OF FINANCIALS AND TTM
0 0 GORDON DIVIDEND RoE IMPUTED ke 13.982%
Cost of Long Term Debt 0.000% HISTORICAL 2.000
CAPM FOR COMMON STOCK E(ri) = rf + [E(rm)-rf] LOWER 13.982%
Long Term Debt 1,500 ESTIMATE THE COST OF EQUITY ON EXPECTED RoE OR CAPM?
WAAC
CAPMKe
Cost 4.83% WACC MEAN 5.159%
Short Term Debt 346,506
Cost 0.00% ESTIMATED SHORT-TERM RISK FREE RATE: T-BILL OR OTHER 2.850%
Revolving Debt 0 OVERALL HISTORIC MARKET RETURN 8.416%
Cost 0.00%
PERPETUITY GROWTH RATE = INFLATION 2.500%
Average Debt Cost 4.832%
PERPETUITY DISCOUNT FACTORWACC-PERPETUITY GROWTH RATE 2.659%
WACC Monte 5.159%
TIME HORIZON (YEARS) FOR SCENARIO 10
CAPM Target Price in 1 Years: 6.109
DCF PROJECTED PRICE PER SHARE AT THESE VARIABLES: 37.829
AVERAGE INTERNAL REVENUE GROWTH RATE TIMET-10,T 0.788%
Beharry, Lyndon Martin W. 2022‐07‐19_BBBY_MC‐Equity‐1Million|WACCCalc 07/19/2022 11:14 | Page 8 of 17
10. Equity Valuation 2022‐07‐19_BBBY_MC‐Equity‐1Million Financial Statement Review
Variables Monetary Values In 1,000 $USD (Except Per Share Values).
BBBY: Bed Bath & Beyond | FEIN: 11‐2250488 Currency $USD Note: This sheet carries decimals to 3 places: 0.000 .
Bed Bath & Beyond Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a chain of retail stores. It sells a range of domestics merchandise, including bed linens and related
items, bath items, and kitchen textiles; and home furnishings, such as kitchen and tabletop items, fine tabletop, basic housewares, general home furnishings,
consumables, and various juvenile products. It also provides various textile products, amenities, and other goods to institutional customers in the hospitality, cruise
line, healthcare, and other industries. (FY: 2018‐03‐08)
User may vary input into shaded cells. Complete the IncStmntReview and BalShtReview worksheets. Complete this page; then run your simulation here.
The most recent FY end (type year): 2022 Adjust Base Year for TTM Estimate Yes
Calculate Statistics through FY: 2022
Mean Historical Alternate 10.000% Coefficient of Variation Target Cut-off
Variables Estimate STDEV Rate
Revenue Growth Rate 1.200% 9.259% 0.788% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=771.62% Use an alternate rate.
Alternative Revenue Growth RateDCF 0.00000% 0.000% 0.00% + / - Growth Per Annum Monte Carlo DCF: $USD BBBY: Bed Bath & Beyond | FEIN: 11-2250488
Projected Growth Rate Y1 0.000% 0.000% Use Alternate Rates: Yes 0.000% 0.000%
AGGR
CoGS : f(Revenue) 59.738% 3.011% 59.925% 59.925%
Depreciation/Amortization [COGs] : f(Revenue) 3.194% 1.911% 2.462% 2.462% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=59.82% Use an alternate rate.
SGA (Only) : f(Revenue) 29.156% 3.686% 28.946% 28.946% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=12.64% Use an alternate rate.
R&D : f(Revenue) 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000%
Depreciation/Amortization [SGA] : f(Revenue) 0.710% 1.544% 0.780% 0.780% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=217.49% Use an alternate rate.
Total Other Overhead : f(Revenue) 0.710% 1.544% 0.710% 0.780% Operating expense has a high deviation=217.49% Check rates of member elements.
Other Expense (Income) : f(Revenue) -0.026% 0.124% ‐0.018% ‐0.018% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=471.00% Use an alternate rate.
Interest Expense (Income) : f(Revenue) 0.285% 0.321% 1.250% 0.315% 1.250% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=112.56% Use an alternate rate.
Tax Rate : f(EBT) 31.816% 16.735% 21.000% 40.234% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=52.60% Use an alternate rate.
Capital Expenditures : f(Revenue) 3.160% 1.659% 3.076% 3.076% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=52.50% Use an alternate rate.
Δ Working Capital : f(Revenue) 0.513% 4.996% 0.000% 0.401% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=974.57% Use an alternate rate.
Working Capital : f(Revenue) 18.257% 7.618% 17.890% 17.890% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=41.72% Use an alternate rate.
Equity Minority Interest : f(Revenue) 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000%
Financial Ratios | FY 2022
Current 1.13898632
Acid Test 0.21182705 No Include Accounts Receivable?
Debt:Equity 28.4614947
Debt:Debt+Equity 0.96605739
RoA (Adjusted for D&A) -0.1090761
RoE -3.2135462
Gordon Dividend Payout Model:
Book Value of the Firm $USD1,000 174,145
Book Value Per Share BV0 2.178
Dividend Growth Rate (Gordon Model) gn 16.707% 0.000% Δ KE : [CAPM - Gordon]
ke = [(RoE - gn ) X (BV0 / P0)] + gn 13.982% No Actual RoE (Yes); Expected RoE (No)
P0/BV0 = PBV = [(RoE-gn)/(ke-gn) 2.46108473
Price Multiple : BV0 2.461
Forecast Share Price From Multiple X BV0 5.360
Static Model: DCF Valuation Per Share 37.829 Growth Rate: 0.00% less 0.00% each subsequent year after T₁.
$USD 37.829
VARIABLES FOR WACC CALCULATIONS
Market and CAPM Modelling 2.850% Risk‐Free Rate (T‐Bill/Bond/Note, LIBOR or other imputed rate)
8.416% Overall historic Market Return
Equity Share Variables 5.360 Current Market Price of Common Stock
0.000 Dividend, if applicable
2.000 eta
10.000% Return on Equity TTM
10.000% Expected Return on Equity
79,960.000 Current Shares Outstanding (diluted) Including Treasury Holdings in 1,000's
Preferred Share Variables Current Market Price of Preferred Stock: A, if applicable
0 Current shares outstanding 1,000
Preferred: A stock coupon
Current Market Price of Preferred Stock: B, if applicable
0 Current shares outstanding 1,000
Preferred: B stock coupon
Current Market Price of Preferred Stock: C, if applicable
0 Current shares outstanding 1,000
Preferred: C stock coupon
Current Market Price of Preferred Stock: D, if applicable
0 Current shares outstanding 1,000
Preferred: D stock coupon
0 Weighted Number of Preferred Shares Outstanding
0.000% Weighted Cost (Coupon) of Preferred Shares Outstanding
0.000 Weighted Market Price of Preferred
Perpetuity Growth Rate Inflation Long‐term Growth Rate (for perpetuity model)
2.500% Long‐Term Inflation Rate
3.580% Average Long‐Term Inflation Rate: U.S.A.
13.982% CAPM KE
Basis of WACC Calculation
WAAC
CAPMKe
CALCULATE DISCOUNT RATE VARYING EQUITY WEIGHTING:
WACC, CAPM, GORDON RoE, AVERAGE OF CAPM AND GORDON RoE?
Yes VARY WACC AROUND ITS MEAN?
2.000% AT THIS COEFFICIENT OF VARIATION ( PERCENT OF THE MEAN).
5.159% WACC FOR SIMULATION
ALTERNATE PLUG FOR WACC DISCOUNT FACTOR
Forecast Results Summary Per Share P/E Valuation 15.000 PE Forward
6.109 CAPM Valuation No Revenue Growth
5.360 BV0 Multiple Valuation
37.829 Static DCF Valuation
38.628 Monte Carlo DCF Valuation
21.982 of All Models Valuation
Monte Carlo Analysis: 38.628 Monte Carlo DCF 2.500
256.602 Monte Carlo Upper 256.602
(260.018) Monte Carlo Lower (260.018)
516.619 Monte Carlo Range
1337.429% Range:Mean
Student's t Distribution
The header (top) is higher | lower than the complement (left).
Ratio Comparison of the Models P/E CAPM Gordon BV0 Static DCF MC DCF Models
P/E
CAPM 0.000% ‐12.267% 519.197% 532.265% 259.799%
Gordon BV0 13.982% 0.000% 605.773% 620.668% 310.106%
Static DCF ‐83.850% ‐85.831% 0.000% 2.111% ‐41.893%
MC DCF ‐84.184% ‐86.124% ‐2.067% 0.000% ‐43.094%
Models ‐72.207% ‐75.616% 72.095% 75.727% 0.000%
Beharry, Lyndon Martin W. 2022‐07‐19_BBBY_MC‐Equity‐1Million|Variables 07/19/2022 11:14 | Page 9 of 17