1. Equity Valuation 2021-01-29_LMT-MC-REPORT-CONTENTS Draft Valuation
Beharry, Lyndon Martin W. Page: Contents
LMT: Lockheed Martin Corporation |
52-1893632
Draft Materials of Financial Analysis
Note: The analyst must use Oracle Crystal Ball to run the Monte Carlo simulation.
Income Statement Review with Statistical Metrics 1.
Income Statement Worksheet (for complex D&A and Byzantine
calculations)
2.
Balance Sheet Review (includes a restatement of equity adjusting per share
values to par $1 adjusting Capital Paid-In to simplify per share allocation
calculations)
3.
Capital Expenditures Worksheet 4.
CashFlows Statement Calculator 5.
Complex Debt Valuation and KB Costing (Tax Shield) and multi-Currency
Converter
6.
Weighted Average Cost of Capital Calculator Workbook 7.
Variables Tabulation Worksheet for Monte Carlo with Summary 8.
Discounted Cash Flow worksheet (Monte Carlo Model) 9.
Discounted Cash Flow worksheet (Monte Carlo Iterations 1-4) ********** *9.
Discounted Cash Flow worksheet (Static Model) 10.
Monte Carlo Model Summary of Results: Distribution Records; Sensitivity to
Variables; Tornado Chart
11.
DCF Valuation Sensitivity Analysis Graphics (WACC and Growth Rate) 12.
Financial Summary 13.
Beneish Test for Fraud: 5 Years 14.
Benford Test for Fraud: Balance Sheet Data 15.
Monte Carlo Model Summary of Results Tornado Chart Metrics 16.
8. Equity Valuation 2022‐01‐28_LMT‐MC‐Equity Financial Statement Review
LMT: Lockheed Martin Corporation | 52‐1893632 WACCCalc ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT AND LONG‐TERM LIABILITIES Yes
DCF analysis will deduct the total value of
liabilities from the firm's cash position.
Functional Currency: 1,000,000 $USD DCF ACCOUNTS FOR CASH AND ALL OTHER ASSETS (YES); ONLY CASH AND SHORT‐TERM (NO) No
To assess liquidity at T₀, DCF analysis will
deduct Balance Sheet Liabilities from Cash +
Short‐term securities.
Debt B Calculations [for Weighted Average Cost of Debt]: FIRE SALE VALUE FOR ASSETS OTHER THAN CASH: 85.000%
1,000,000
Long-Term Debt COST OF DEBT 4.646%
MatDate Coupon Value Annual TAX ADJUSTED 3.903%
2018‐09‐01 8.000% 0 OUTSTANDING DEBT OBLIGATIONS 39,914
2.700% 0 0 $USD CURRENCY COST OF DEBT ISSUE. 41,472
1.550% 0 0
6.800% 0 0
2.250% 0 0 COST OF PREFERRED STOCK 0.000%
2.960% 0 0 WEIGHTED MARKET PRICE OF PREFERRED STOCK 0.000
2.400% 0 0 WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF OUTSTANDING PREFERRED STOCK 0
2.150% 0 0 $USD CURRENCY COST OF PREFERRED CAPITAL. 0
2.400% 0 0
2.850% 0 0
2.550% 0 0 MARKET PRICE OF COMMON STOCK 390.000
3.500% 0 0 RECENT SHARES OUT 272
4.625% 0 0 OUTSTANDING COMMON STOCK: ESTIMATETTM = AVG(RECENT,10K FIGURE) 275 Adjusted for Treasury Stock
4.540% 0 RETAINED EARNINGS 21,600
4.580% 0 $USD CURRENCY COST OF COMMON CAPITAL: CAPITALIZATION. 106,703 10,959 BALANCE SHEET SE
1.920% 0
2.610% 0 DIVIDEND IN $USD 11.200
2.840% 0 DIVIDEND YIELD RATE 2.872%
4.150% 0 ONE YR EXPECTED $USD RETURN PER SHARE = [MARKET PRICE X (1+ER)] + DIVIDEND 451.774
1.890% 0 ACTUAL RETURN ON EQUITY: ER for TTM 57.624% 74.310% TTM VALUE
EXPECTED RETURN ON EQUITYUPPER: Including Risk Premium 20.000% MEAN OF FINANCIALS AND TTM
0 0 GORDON DIVIDEND RoE IMPUTED ke 4.754%
Cost of Long Term Debt 0.000% HISTORICAL 0.930
CAPM FOR COMMON STOCK E(ri) = rf + [E(rm)-rf] LOWER 12.968%
Long Term Debt 11,670 ESTIMATE THE COST OF EQUITY ON EXPECTED RoE OR CAPM?
WAAC
CAPMKe
Cost 4.65% WACC MEAN 10.430%
Short Term Debt 0
Cost 0.00% ESTIMATED SHORT-TERM RISK FREE RATE: T-BILL OR OTHER 0.580%
Revolving Debt 0 OVERALL HISTORIC MARKET RETURN 13.900%
Cost 0.00%
PERPETUITY GROWTH RATE = INFLATION 2.500%
Average Debt Cost 4.646%
PERPETUITY DISCOUNT FACTORWACC-PERPETUITY GROWTH RATE 4.973%
WACC Monte 7.473%
TIME HORIZON (YEARS) FOR SCENARIO 10
CAPM Target Price in 1 Years: 440.574
DCF PROJECTED PRICE PER SHARE AT THESE VARIABLES: 213.370
AVERAGE INTERNAL REVENUE GROWTH RATE TIMET-10,T 3.551%
Beharry, Lyndon Martin W. 2022‐01‐28_LMT‐MC‐Equity|WACCCalc 1/29/2022 11:32 Page 7 of 16
9. Equity Valuation 2022‐01‐28_LMT‐MC‐Equity Financial Statement Review
Variables Monetary Values In 1,000,000 $USD (Except Per Share Values).
LMT: Lockheed Martin Corporation | 52‐1893632 Currency $USD Note: This sheet carries decimals to 3 places: 0.000 .
Lockheed Martin Corporation, a global security and aerospace company principally engaged in the research, design, development, manufacture, integration and sustainment of advanced technology systems, products and services. We
also provide a broad range of management, engineering, technical, scientific, logistics, system integration and cybersecurity services. We serve both U.S. and international customers with products and services that have defense, civil and
commercial applications, with our principal customers being agencies of the U.S. Government. In 2021, 71% of our $67.0 billion in net sales were from the U.S. Government, either as a prime contractor or as a subcontractor (including 62%
from the Department of Defense (DoD)), 28% were from international customers (including foreign military sales (FMS) contracted through the U.S. Government) and 1% were from U.S. commercial and other customers. Our main areas
of focus are in defense, space, intelligence, homeland security and information technology, including cybersecurity. (December 2021)
User may vary input into shaded cells. Complete the IncStmntReview and BalShtReview worksheets. Complete this page; then run your simulation here.
The most recent FY end (type year): 2022 Adjust Base Year for TTM Estimate Yes
Calculate Statistics through FY: 2021
Mean Historical Alternate 10.000% Coefficient of Variation Target Cut-off
Variables Estimate STDEV Rate
Revenue Growth Rate 3.806% 7.563% 3.551% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=198.68% Use an alternate rate.
Alternative Revenue Growth RateDCF 1.00000% 0.100% 0.00% + / - Growth Per Annum Monte Carlo DCF: $USD LMT: Lockheed Martin Corporation | 52-1893632
Projected Growth Rate Y1 1.000% 0.100% Use Alternate Rates: Yes 1.000% 0.100%
AGGR
CoGS : f(Revenue) 84.294% 2.136% 84.083% 84.083%
Depreciation/Amortization [COGs] : f(Revenue) 2.268% 0.231% 2.190% 2.190% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=10.20% Use an alternate rate.
SGA (Only) : f(Revenue) 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000%
R&D : f(Revenue) 1.868% 0.418% 1.901% 1.901% 1.901% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=22.35% Use an alternate rate.
Depreciation/Amortization [SGA] : f(Revenue) 0.058% 0.139% 0.051% 0.051% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=241.78% Use an alternate rate.
Total Administrative Overhead : f(Revenue) 1.926% 0.397% 1.926% 1.952% Operating expense has a high deviation=20.59% Check rates of member elements.
Other Expense (Income); Overhead : f(Revenue) 0.304% 0.661% 0.360% 0.360% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=217.72% Use an alternate rate.
Interest Expense (Income) : f(Revenue) 0.975% 0.235% 1.250% 0.977% 1.250% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=24.11% Use an alternate rate.
Tax Rate : f(EBT) 27.027% 13.430% 16.000% 25.439% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=49.69% Use an alternate rate.
Capital Expenditures : f(Revenue) 2.789% 0.561% 2.565% 2.565% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=20.11% Use an alternate rate.
Δ Working Capital : f(Revenue) -0.788% 2.969% 0.000% ‐0.880% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=376.74% Use an alternate rate.
Working Capital : f(Revenue) 5.348% 2.290% 5.559% 5.559% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=42.82% Use an alternate rate.
Equity Minority Interest : f(Revenue) ‐0.428% 0.968% 0.000% ‐0.379% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=226.04% Use an alternate rate.
Financial Ratios | FY 2021
Current 1.4156605
Acid Test 0.25748375 No Include Accounts Receivable?
Debt:Equity 3.64212063
Debt:Debt+Equity 0.78458121
RoA (Adjusted for D&A) 0.12413264
RoE 0.57623871
Gordon Dividend Payout Model:
Book Value of the Firm $USD1,000,000 10,959
Book Value Per Share BV0 40.242
Dividend Growth Rate (Gordon Model) gn 3.000% 8.213% Δ KE : [CAPM - Gordon]
ke = [(RoE - gn ) X (BV0 / P0)] + gn 4.754% No Actual RoE (Yes); Expected RoE (No)
P0/BV0 = PBV = [(RoE-gn)/(ke-gn) 9.69145907
Price Multiple : BV0 9.691
Forecast Share Price From Multiple X BV0 390.000
Static Model: DCF Valuation Per Share 213.370 Growth Rate: 1.00% less 0.00% each subsequent year after T₁.
$USD 213.370
VARIABLES FOR WACC CALCULATIONS
Market and CAPM Modelling 0.580% Risk‐Free Rate (T‐Bill/Bond/Note, LIBOR or other imputed rate)
13.900% Overall historic Market Return
Equity Share Variables 390.000 Current Market Price of Common Stock
11.200 Dividend, if applicable
0.930 eta
74.310% Return on Equity TTM
20.000% Expected Return on Equity
272 Current Shares Outstanding (diluted) Including Treasury Holdings in 1,000,000's
Preferred Share Variables Current Market Price of Preferred Stock: A, if applicable
0 Current shares outstanding 1,000,000
Preferred: A stock coupon
Current Market Price of Preferred Stock: B, if applicable
0 Current shares outstanding 1,000,000
Preferred: B stock coupon
Current Market Price of Preferred Stock: C, if applicable
0 Current shares outstanding 1,000,000
Preferred: C stock coupon
Current Market Price of Preferred Stock: D, if applicable
0 Current shares outstanding 1,000,000
Preferred: D stock coupon
0 Weighted Number of Preferred Shares Outstanding
0.000% Weighted Cost (Coupon) of Preferred Shares Outstanding
0.000 Weighted Market Price of Preferred
Perpetuity Growth Rate Inflation Long‐term Growth Rate (for perpetuity model)
2.500% Long‐Term Inflation Rate
3.580% Average Long‐Term Inflation Rate: U.S.A.
12.968% CAPM KE
Basis of WACC Calculation
WACC Avg
(CAPM,
Gordon)
CALCULATE DISCOUNT RATE VARYING EQUITY WEIGHTING:
WACC, CAPM, GORDON RoE, AVERAGE OF CAPM AND GORDON RoE?
Yes VARY WACC AROUND ITS MEAN?
2.000% AT THIS COEFFICIENT OF VARIATION ( PERCENT OF THE MEAN).
7.473% WACC FOR SIMULATION
ALTERNATE PLUG FOR WACC DISCOUNT FACTOR
Forecast Results Summary Per Share 347.832 P/E Valuation 15.000 PE Forward
451.774 CAPM Valuation 15.0000 Imputed or Projected PEG
390.000 BV0 Multiple Valuation
213.370 Static DCF Valuation
214.460 Monte Carlo DCF Valuation
323.487 of All Models Valuation
Monte Carlo Analysis: 214.460 Monte Carlo DCF 2.500
1,204.754 Monte Carlo Upper 1,204.754
(680.560) Monte Carlo Lower (680.560)
1,885.314 Monte Carlo Range
879.098% Range:Mean
Lognormal Distribution
The header (top) is higher | lower than the complement (left).
Ratio Comparison of the Models P/E CAPM Gordon BV0 Static DCF MC DCF Models
P/E 0.000% 29.883% 12.123% ‐38.657% ‐38.344% ‐6.999%
CAPM ‐23.008% 0.000% ‐13.674% ‐52.771% ‐52.529% ‐28.396%
Gordon BV0 ‐10.812% 15.839% 0.000% ‐45.290% ‐45.010% ‐17.055%
Static DCF 63.018% 111.733% 82.781% 0.000% 0.511% 51.609%
MC DCF 62.190% 110.656% 81.852% ‐0.508% 0.000% 50.838%
Models 7.526% 39.657% 20.561% ‐34.041% ‐33.704% 0.000%
Beharry, Lyndon Martin W. 2022‐01‐28_LMT‐MC‐Equity|Variables 1/29/2022 11:32 Page 8 of 16