This document discusses IPv6 transition and the state of IPv6 adoption. It notes that while IPv4 address exhaustion is a real issue, users do not care and prefer NAT for security. Transition requires cooperation across users, ISPs, devices and content. Statistics show rapid growth of IPv6 adoption by major networks worldwide in the last two years. Full transition to IPv6 is needed to enable unlimited connectivity for cloud/mobile internet and the internet of things going forward.

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IPv6 Transition
Alain Fiocco
Sr Director, IPv6 HIP
Mai 13, 2013

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Content
User
ISP
Device
“A deadlock, stalemate, impasse; a roughly equal (frequently unsatisfactory)
outcome to a conflict in which there is no clear winner or loser,”
Where is the content?
Too much pain &
no gain
Where is the
network?
Do I pay less ?
Any new apps ?
NAT’s are good.
RFC1918 gives me
security, and IPv4
address run-out is my
ISP’s problem.
The network is not ready, users
don’t care and I don’t want to
risk a poor end-user experience
today for potential gains
tomorrow
Enterprise

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RIPE ARIN AFRINICLACNIC
IANA
Mean while … IPv4 run-out is very real
http://ipv6.he.net/statistics/
APNIC
Last /8 policy

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CGN
IPv4
Performance ? Resilience ? End User Experience ?
Troubleshooting ? Security ? Location ?
User Logging/data retention vs too much information ?
Private
IPv4
Session States
{SIP@,DIP@,Sp,Dp}

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0"
50"
100"
150"
200"
250"
Internet&Home&2&
Alex" Max" Alain"home"office" VoD/TV Replay platforms:
• Canalplus : 70 sessions
• Pluzz.fr: 95 sessions
• BBC : 45 sessions
• CNN: 50
Portals/Social
• Facebook: 40 sessions
• Yahoo: 110 sessions
• Bing: 30
• G+: 30
• Wikipedia: 50
• Twitter : 20
Peer to Peer:
• BitTorent: >700

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Web 2.0 (ex: AJAX) Application Behavior Under Constrained NAT Resources
20 NAT Sessions15 NAT Sessions10 NAT Sessions30 NAT Sessions times millions of users

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2011 2013 2015
CGN Only
2011 2013 2015
6rd + CGN
May, 2012 IDC Study – “The Business Case for Delivering IPv6 Service Now“
http://www.cisco.com/en/US/solutions/collateral/ns341/ns525/ns1017/idc_ipv6_economics.pdf

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Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
X 2 over 8 months. Accelerating with Smartphone penetration
=> More sophisticated apps => more tcp sessions + keepalive

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2013 2014 2015 2016
IPv4 + NAT44
IPv6 + IPv4 + NAT44
IPv6 + NAT64
March 2013, IDC Study - “The Business Case for IPv6 in Mobile Networks”
http://goo.gl/J9lZF

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CGN
IPv4
IPv6
AAAA
A
IPv6 for growth
IPv4 for legacy (with CGN == a necessary Evil)
DNS

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Users Content
Cloud
CDN
The
NetworkAT&T
Verizon Mobile
Comcast
TWC
Free
RCS&RDS
XS4ALL
KDDI
Softbank
Many to come in 2013
Google
Facebook
Yahoo
Bing
Wikipedia
Netflix
Amazon
1000’s Enterprises
Public Agencies
Amazon
Rackspace
OVH
Akamai
Limelight
http://www.worldipv6launch.org/participants
> 1.3%
> 80%
>40%

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Huge impact on B2C in China and B2B for Rest of the world
http://www.telecomasia.net/content/chinese-telcos-embark-ipv6-adoption?src=popular
The three largest SP in
China:
• Will have 3M subs each by
End 2013
• 45% wireline penetration
(25M homes) by End 2015
• All mobile switch to IPv6 by
End 2015 !

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Huge impact on B2C in India and B2B for Rest of the world

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• Consumer Protection and Information
• Business information and Education
Impact on B2C and B2B
• Guarantee fair access and fair competition
• Security
• Legal obligation
• Privacy vs Law Enforcement
• Create incentive for IPv6 adoption

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• Restore Internet end-to-end model:
All Broadband Internet subscriber should have at
least ONE Globally Routable Network Address
• Transparency – Consumer education
• User getting their IPv4 connectivity behind a CGN should be informed
• ISP should publish their IPv4 address sharing policy
• Performance Measurement must include CGN impact
• Users connected solely behind a CGN should be able to Opt-out
• IPv6 rollout out should be encouraged:
• Display IPv6 coverage, Similar to: http://map.geo.admin.ch/?topic=nga

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6lab.cisco.com/stats
Jim Barksdale,
former Netscape CEO
Based on data from RIR, routeviews, DNS roots, Alexa, Google, ITU and APnic

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IPv4 transit AS’s: 8645 IPv6 transit AS’s: 1501*
IPv6 enabled AS’s: 3249
Concentrated in TOP 300
(75% of AS’s are IPv6 transit)
22% CAGR

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IPv6 transit – IPv6 enabled
SE: 88% - 93%
NO: 85%- 95%
NL: 82% - 92%
CH: 79% - 91%
DE: 74% – 90%
GB: 70% – 86%
FR: 66% - 82%
USA: 56% - 69%
Source: routeview

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1. Test AAAA + httpget over IPv6 to top 500 Web sites for 125 countries (per alexa.com)
and/or IPv6 shadow test domain (ex: iPv6.domain.com , www6.domain.com.…etc…)
2. Based on their respective rank, apply the corresponding % of traffic they represent
(Pareto function above)
3. Sum this up => estimated available IPv6 content for 125 countries
+ =>
alexa.com

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Now Doubling Every 9 months
John outlines Cisco’s
commitment to IPv6
“World IPv6 Day”
June, 2011
“World IPv6 Launch”
June, 2012
Cisco Live
June, 2013
10+ Years of preparation and trial
Industry bands together
to move to mainstream

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• Romania (9%) and France
(6%) have captured low
hanging fruits and are now,
growing steady.
• Germany is adding
12k DSL user/day
• Switzerland > 3%
• more Countries over 1% :
Czech Republic, Belgium,
Norway, Ireland, Luxembourg
Size of the square = estimated nb of IPv6 users
Color = Percentage of IPv6 subs vs total nb of users

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• 3% ~ 200k users
Swisscom (6rd)
BREAKING NEWS 400k users have been added over the WE !
That should make Switzerland the first country to reach 10%

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• 3.9 % ~ 3.8 M users
KDDI (FTTH, Dual-Stack)
Softbank (DSL+FTTH, 6rd)
• NTT IPv6 is walled-garden
(don’t show up here)

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• 5.6% ~ 2.8 M users
Free: 6rd
SFR: Dual-stack o PPPoE

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• 2.7% ~ 2M users
D-Telekom (Dual-Stack o PPPoE)
KDG (DOCSIS IPv6 only + DS Lite)
0.2%, 8 months ago
+ 12k users/night

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2.5 % => over 6 M users
0.6% 12 months ago

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29%
11%
October
2011
January
2012
April
2012
July
2012
October
2012
January
2013
Source: Google Source: Google
10%
4%
October 2011 January 2012 April 2012 July 2012 October 2012 January 2013
www.worldipv6launch.org/measurements

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30%
15%
5%
Verizon Wireless IPv6 vs. IPv4 Actual User Activity
Doubling or Tripling every 7 months
7 months
7 months

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3 years: 15 – 25 %
50% point in 5 years
(Logistic S-Curve
Model)
* Based on past data. Does not include effect of new IPv6-only Internet of
Things Architectures, Smartgrid, IPv4 run-out outside of Asia and the EU, etc.

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IPv6
End2End Restored
Unlimited Connectivity
Global Reach
Cloud/MSDC
• Scale
• Virtualization
• Automation
• Simplification
Mobile Internet
• Scale: 10 Billions
• 4G-LTE / VoLTE
• Simplification
• Mobile networks
Internet of Things
• Scale: 50 Billions
• Automation-Self Networked
• IoT Protocols are IPv6 only
IPv4 Exhaust.
=>
brittle architecture
http://www.cisco.com/go/vni

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afiocco@cisco.com