2010 Indonesia Outlook, Faisal basri

1. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2010
Faisal Basri
15 November 2009

2. Bagian I
Perkembangan Ekonomi Dunia Terkini

3. Summary
Perekonomian dunia sudah menunjukkan
recovery, lebih cepa da pe aa
eco e y, eb cepat dari perkiraan
sebelumnya, kecuali AS yang masih rentan.
Tulang punggung pemulihan adalah Emerging
Markets EM), kh
M k t EM) khususnya EM A i lebih khusus
EM-Asia, l bih kh
lagi Asia Timur. Bahkan kawasan ini pulih
sangat cepat dan mendahului negara-negara
negara negara
maju (fenomena baru).
Perlu diwaspadai:
p
• Tekanan inflasi
• Volatilitas nilai tukar.
• K ik h
Kenaikan harga-harga komoditi, t t
h k diti terutama minyak,
i k
karena kenaikan real demand

4. The world economy is facing a deep
downturn in 2009
In the most severe recession since WW II, the global economy is projected
to shrink by 1.1 percent in 2009, with slow (sluggish) recovery next year.
Description Jul 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Jan 09 Mar 09 Apr 09 Jul 09 Oct 09
World GDP growth, % 3.9 3.0 2.2 0.5 -0.8 -1.3 -1.4 -1.1
-United States 0.8 0.1 -0.7 -1.6 -2.6 -2.8 -2.6 -2.7
-Euro Area 1.2 0.2 -0.5 -2.0 -3.2 -4.2 -4.8 -4.2
-Japan 1.5 0.5 -0.2 -2.6 -5.8 -6.2 -6.0 -5.4
-Developing economies 6.7 6.1 5.1 3.3 2.0 1.6 1.5 1.7
-China 9.8 9.3 8.5 6.7 - 6.5 7.5 8.5
-Asean-5 5.6 5.5 4.5 2.7 - 0.0 -0.3 0.7
World trade growth, % 6.0 4.1 2.0 -2.8 - -11.0 -12.2 -11.9
Not available. It’s been a lousy year for forecasters
Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook, various issues. all over the world.)

5. Oil prices have roughly doubled since Feb.
Crude Oil Lt Sweet Pit (Nymex) December 2009
5:14 p.m. EDT
US$76.54 =
Source: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/mdc_commodities.html
Adjusted by producer-price index = US$118
Adjusted by annual income within G-7 countries = US$134
j y $
Adjusted by disposable income of US = US$145
Spending on oil as a share of global output = US$150
• Source: Economist, April 17, 2008.

6. Oil prices and stock market
= 10,270.47
Source: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/mdc_commodities.html

7. Euro Zone: green shoots
The two largest economies of the 16-country euro zone,
Germany and France, grew in the second quarter after
falling for four quarters.
a g o ou qua e s
Source: http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2009/08/14/business/14euro_graphic_ready.html

8. Business confidence is surging across
EU and BRIC –FT, 10 August 2009, p.1
Business confidence is surging across European
manufacturing, with the UK and Italy taking the lead.
Optimism b t d ti trends back t
O ti i about production t d iis b k at llevels l
seen before the intensification of the global
slowdown late last year and points to a clear growth
year,
in manufacturing activity by the middle of 2010.
The
Th so-called “B i ” countries – B il R i I di
ll d “Bric” ti Brazil, Russia, India
and China – have also seen a strong rebound in
manufacturing confidence,
man fact ring confidence ..

9. Emerging Asia: an astonishing rebound
an
The four emerging Asian economies
which have reported GDP figures for
the second quarter (China Indonesia,
(China, Indonesia
South Korea and Singapore) grew by
an average annualised rate of more
than 10%
th 10%.
Source: From The Economist print edition, Aug 13th 2009.
Hong Kong joins Asia’s rapid climb out of recession Hong
Asia s recession.
Kong’s economy grew by a seasonally adjusted 3.3 percent in the
second quarter from the first quarter, more than analysts had
expected, adding to evidence that the recovery was solidifying in
t d ddi t id th t th lidif i i
much of Asia, according to data published Friday.
China, Singapore and South Korea have reported rebounds
during h A il J
d i the April-to-June period.
i d
Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/15/business/global/15asiaecon.html?ref=global-business.

10. Change in value of exports (year-over-year)
(year-over-
Source: http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2009/08/14/business/20090815_CHARTS_GRAPHIC.html

11. U.S.: The case for optimism
Why It's Smart To Be Optimistic
Sure, it has been a harrowing storm. And
now is no time to discount the dangers
that still exist. But opening your mind to
optimism can help you seize the
opportunities ahead ....
t iti h d
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/toc/09_34/B4144optimism.htm?chan=magazine+channel_top+stories

12. U.S. economic contraction slowed in quarter
Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/01/business/economy/01econ.html?_r=1&th&emc=th

13. Deepening the pain: job losses pile up
Job losses since the recession began in December 2007. Unemployment
rateshot up to 10.2% in October 2009, a 26-year high.
0
‐1000
‐2000
‐3000
‐4000
‐5000
‐6000
Cumulative (000)
‐7000
Montly job losses (000)
‐8000
8000
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S
Source: U.S. Labor Department.

14. U.S. consumer confidence index
Indeks kepercayaan
konsumen adalah salah
k d l h l h
satu leading economic
indicator bagi
perekonomian. S t l h
k i Setelah
mengalami penurunan
pada bulan Juni dan
Juli,
J li consumer
Confidence Index naik
tajam pada bulan
Agustus
A t menjadi 54 1
j di 54.1
dari 47.4 sebulan
sebelumnya.
Source: http://www.conference-board.org/economics/ConsumerConfidence.cfm

15. Bagian II
Perekonomian Indonesia
k

16. Summary
Perekonomian Indonesia ternyata bisa bertahan dari
deraan krisis global dengan pertumbuhan masih di
atas 4 persen.
Kekuatan utama adalah pasar domestik yang cukup
besar.
Pertumbuhan belum berkualitas, sektor tradable masih
berkualitas
merana.
Perlu pembenahan kebijakan moneter dan kebijakan
fiskal.
Peluang terbuka lebar bagi FDI untuk imbangi modal
jangka pendek.

17. The transmission of stress
Sources: IMF, April 2009.

18. Sumber daya tahan
Perekonomian Indonesia dan sektor keuangannya tak terkait
erat dengan sektor finansial AS.
Sektor perbankan sudah cukup terkonsolidasi. Indikator
kesehatan perbankan (ROA, ROE, NIM, CAR) di atas rata-rata
negara tetangga, bahkan beberapa terbaik.
Current account masih surplus.
Peranan ekspor di dalam PDB relatif kecil.
Porsi ekspor Indonesia ke AS Eropa dan Jepang sudah
AS, Eropa,
menunjukkan penurunan; bergeser ke EM dan Asean.
Ruang gerak untuk stimulus fiskal cukup leluasa.
Harga minyak sempat turun ke level di bawah $ per barrel.
$50
Ketahanan pangan terjaga (a.l: komponen makanan dalam
CPI mengalami deflasi berturut-turut dalam 4 bulan terakhir).
g )
Bonus: situasi politik yang memburuk di Thailand dan kurang
kondusif di Malaysia; dan daya saing meningkat tajam.

19. East Asia entered the current crisis
better prepared than it did the 1997 crisis
(in percent of GDP unless indicated otherwise)
Source: The World Bank, East Asia Pacific Update, East Asia: Navigating the Perfect Storm, December 2008.

20. Countries more dependent on exports will
likely be more vulnerable to the slowdown
Source: Asian Development Bank, The AsiIa Economic Monitor (AEM), July 2009, p. 5.

21. Direction of trade: Asean and Indonesia
Ingat: Peran Singapura !!!
From Asean Indonesia
To 2000 2007 2000 2007
Developing Asia 37,4 41,2 33,1 37,1
China 3,7 8,9 4,2 8,1
Japan 12,6 9,4 22,1 18,1
United States
United States 18,2
18 2 12,2
12 2 13,0
13 0 9,4
94
European Union 14,4 11,1 13,7 10,0
Others 13,7 17,2 13,7 17,3
Sources: ADB, March 2009

22. Ruang gerak stimulus fiskal
WSJ, March 21, 2009
Stimulus Dilemma
for China
Spending on Public
p g
Works Risks Making
Production Glut Worse
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123759537916001075.html
Pertumbuhan ekonomi Singapura tahun 2009
terjun bebas Pemerintah “pasrah ” Stimulus
bebas. pasrah.
jangka pendek sangat terbatas, karena
hampir tak ada ruang gerak untuk
pembenahan i f
b h infrastruktur fisik. Segalanya
t kt fi ik S l
sudah tersedia dengan kualitas prima.

23. The World competitiveness scoreboard
Country 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
USA 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Singapore 4 2 3 3 2 2 3
Hong Kong 10 6 2 2 3 3 2
Switzerland 9 14 8 8 6 4 4
Australia 7 4 9 6 12 7 7
China 27 22 29 18 15 17 20
Taiwan 17 12 11 17 18 13 23
Malaysia 21 16 26 22 23 19 18
India 42 30 33 27 27 29 30
Korea
K 32 31 27 32 29 31 27
Thailand 28 26 25 29 33 27 26
Philippines 41 43 40 42 45 40 43
Indonesia 49 49 50 52 54 51 42
Venezuela 51 51 51 53 55 55 57
Source: International Institute for Management Development, World Competitiveness Yearbook, 2009.

24. Economic temperature cooler ..
Inflation returns 1 digit, y-o-y, %
18.4
18
16
14.6
14
percent
t
12
10
8
6
4 4.6
46
2 2.6
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
0
Source: BPS.

25. BI Rate bertahan di 6.5 persen
13.0
12.0
11.0
10.0
9.0
90
8.0
7.0
6.0
Source: Bank Indonesia.

26. BI rate turun tapi SBI naik terus
Rp Trn persen
300 12
280
11
260
240
10
220
200 9
180
8
160
140
7
120
100 6
2007 2008 2009
SBI Outstanding (sumbu kiri) BI Rate (sumbu kanan)
SBI 1-bulan (sumbu kanan)

27. Pertumbuhan suplai uang relatif rendah
YoY%
50
40
30
20
10
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
-10
M2 M1 M0
-20

28. Belanja pemerintah masih seret
Rp Trn percent
250 14
Rekening Pem erintah di BI
Inter Bank Rate 12
200 BI Rate
10
150
8
6
100
4
50
2
0 0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

29. 9,500
9,000
8,500
12,500
12,000
11,500
11,000
10,500
10,000
8-Apr
22-Jul
15-Oct
12-Jan
11-Apr
Jul-05
27-Sep
23-Dec
17-Mar
14-Jun
7-Sep
6-Dec
1-Mar
28-May
20-Aug
(Rupiah per US$)
16-Nov
20-Feb
16-May
8-Aug
6-Nov
Feb-05
Heart beat has been appreciating ...
May-04
Jul-28
23-Oct
Source: Bank Indonesia

30. W
30000.00
35000.00
40000.00
45000 00
45000.00
50000.00
55000.00
60000.00
65000.00
1-
J
W a
2-
F
W e
3-
M
W a
4-
A
Source: Bank Indonesia.
W p
1-
Jn
W
2-
W Jl
3
W -Ag
4-
S
W ep
1-
N
W ov
2-
D
W ec
3-
J
W an
4-
F
W eb
1-
A
W pr
2-
M
W ay
3-
Ju
SBY era
W n
4-
W Jul
1-
S
W ep
2-
O
W ct
3-
N
W ov
4-
D
W ec
2-
A
31 pr
-A
u
31 g
-J
(US$ million)
29 an
-J
31 un
-A
ug
5-
O
15 c t
-N
19 ov
-D
e
31 c
-J
a
6- n
M
a
15 r
-A
23 pr
-M
30 ay
-J
u
7- n
A
15 ug
-S
e
24 p
-O
Fe ct
b-
2
Ju 7
l- 3
1
Foreign reserves increased more than $7 bil.
bil.

31. JSX index recovered significantly
Business Week 14-21 Maret 2007 hal.18.
Week, 2007, hal 18

32. Balance of payments (US$ million)
2008 Q3‐08 Q4‐08 Q1‐09 Q2‐09 H1‐09
I. CURRENT ACCOUNT 285 ‐891 ‐684 2,885 3,104 5,989
A. Goods, net (Trade Balance)
A G d t (T d B l ) 22,916
22 916 5,771
5 771 4,166
4 166 6,969
6 969 8,705
8 705 15,674
15 674
1. Exports, f.o.b. 139,606 38,081 29,768 24,205 27,509 51,714
2. Imports, f.o.b. ‐116,690 ‐32,309 ‐25,603 ‐17,236 ‐18,805 36,041
B. Services, net
B S i ‐12,745
12 745 ‐3,195
3 195 ‐3,288
3 288 ‐2,535
2 535 ‐3,097
3 097 ‐5,632
5 632
C. Income, net ‐15,271 ‐4,803 ‐2,879 ‐2,672 ‐3,714 6,386
D. Current Transfers, net 5,385 1,336 1,317 1,122 1,210 2,332
II. CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT ‐1,354 904 ‐3,340 1,750 ‐2,414 ‐664
A. Capital Account 294 187 29 19 29 48
B. Financial Account ‐1,648 717 ‐3,368 1,731 ‐2,443 ‐712
1. Direct investment 2,799 404 2,061 1,660 9 1,669
2. Portfolio investment 1,721 ‐74 ‐ 4,377 1,859 2,003 3,862
3. Other investment ‐6,167 387 ‐1,052 ‐1,788 ‐4,455 ‐6,243
III. ERRORS & OMISSIONS ‐876 ‐103 ‐188 ‐680 362 ‐318
IV. RESERVES &RELATED ITEMS 1,945 89 4,212 ‐3,955 ‐1,052 ‐5,007
Source: Bank Indonesia.

33. The role of FDI in Asia & South America, 2006
FDI flows to GFCF FDI stocks to GDP
Country Percent Country Percent
Venezuela -2.1 Indonesia 5.2
Bangladesh 3.9 India 5.7
Sri Lanka 6.2 Bangladesh 6.3
Indonesia 6.4 Sri Lanka 10.9
China 8.0 China 11.1
India 8.7 Pakistan 11.4
Argentina 9.6 Taiwan 14.2
Taiwan 10.3 Philippines 14.6
Brazil 10.5 Peru 20.7
Vietnam 12.5 Brazil 20.8
Philippines 14.1 Venezuela 25.0
Thailand 16.5 Argentina 27.4
Peru 18.9 Thailand 33.0
Bolivia 19.5 Malaysia 36.0
Malaysia 20.1 Ecuador 39.9
Pakistan 24.1 Cambodia 41.6
Ecuador 24.8 Bolivia 44.6
Chile 28.3 Vietnam 54.8
Cambodia 38.9 Chile 55.4
Singapore 79.5 Singapore
S 159.0
1 90
Asia 12.9 Asia 24.9
South America 13.1 South America 26.0
Notes: FDI = Foreign Direct Investment (inward); GFCF = Gross Fixed Capital Formation; GDP = Gross Domestic Product. Source: UNCTAD, World Investment Report 2007.

34. Indonesia’s post-crisis journey
post-
Quarterly GDP growth, y-o-y, %
6.6
6.4
5.2
7
4.2
4.0
5
4
3
1
-1
-3
-5
-7
-9 Gus Dur:
-11 “Erratic/shaky”
-13
Megawati:
-15 Consolidation and
-17 acceleration
-19
SBY: Throws away
-21
21 Momentum,
Momentum and then made
correction
Crisis
peak Source: BPS.

35. Low quality — Sectoral growth rate
(2000 base year year-on-year growth rate %)
year, year-on- rate,
2007 2008 Q1-09 Q2-09 H1-09 H1-Share
Tradable
T d bl 3.9
39 3.4
34 2.6
26 1.93
1 93 2.3
23 48.4
48 4
Agriculture 3.4 4.8 5.2 2.4 3.7 14.0
Mining & Q y g
g Quarrying 2.0 0.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 8.2
Manufacturing 4.7 3.7 1.5 1.5 1.5 26.2
Non-Tradable 8.8 8.7 6.1 6.2 6.0 51.7
Electricity, Gas & Water 10.3 10.9 11.4 15.4 13.4 0.8
Construction 8.6 7.3 6.3 6.4 6.3 6.3
Trade, Hotel & Rest. 8.4 7.2 0.5 -0.1
0.1 0.2 16.6
Transport & Comm. 14.0 16.7 17.1 17.5 17.3 8.7
Finance 8.0 8.2 6.3 5.3 5.8 9.7
Services 6.6 6.4 6.8 7.4 7.1 9.6
GDP 6.3 6.1 4.4 4.0 4.2 100.0
Source: BPS.

36. Low quality growth, 2000-2009* (%)
2000-2009*
10
Non-tradable
8
6
GDP
4
Tradable
2
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
* January-June.
Source: BPS.

37. GDP growth by expenditure (y-o-y, %)
(y-
2009
Description 2006 2007 2008 Q1 Q2 H1 H1‐Share
Private consumption
p 3,2
, 5,0
, 5,3
, 6,0
, 4,8
, 5,4
, 57,1
,
Government consumption 9,6 3,9 10,4 19,2 17,0 18,0 7,1
Fixed investment
Fixed investment 2,6 9,4 11,7 3,4 2,7 3,0 23,2
Domestic demand 3,6 6,0 7,4 6,2 5,3 5,8 87,5
Exports 9,4
94 8,5
85 9,5 18,7 15,7 17,2
9 5 ‐18 7 ‐15 7 ‐17 2 23,7
23 7
Imports 8,6 9,0 10,0 ‐26,0 ‐23,9 ‐24,9 20,6
GDP 5,5
55 6,3
63 6,1
61 4,4
44 4,0
40 4,2
42 100,0
100 0
Source: BPS..

38. Otomotif dan sepeda motor mulai naik..

39. Konsumsi semen naik ke level tertinggi

40. Indonesia: foreign visitors arrivals
Visitors: Growth:
Jan-Sep 2008 = 4,570,492 Sep 2009 (m-t-m) = -12.88%
Jan-Sep 2009 = 4,619,483 Jan-Jul 2009 (y-o-y) = 1.07%
700000
2008 2009
600000
500000
400000
00000
May
Mar
May
Mar
Oct
Jan
Jan
Feb
Feb
Sep
Sep
Dec
Jun
Jun
Nov
Jul
Jul
Apr
Apr
Aug
Aug
Sources: BPS

41. Indeks tendensi konsumen
110
100
90
Q3-09 is prediction.
Source: BPS.

42. Indeks tendensi bisnis
120
110
100
90
Q3-09 is prediction.
Source: BPS.

43. Bagian III
Liingkungan Politik

44. Decoupling between politics and
economic activities?
Jakarta International Java Jazz Festival, held on 6-8
March 2009. The festival's 19 stages featured more than
300 performances. There isn't a jazz festival larger than
Java Jazz Festival in this part of the world.
Approximately 1500 delegates from 35 countries
attended the 5th World Islamic Economic Forum,
iin Jakarta, 1 4 M h 2009
J k t 1-4 March 2009.
The 42th Annual Meeting of the Board of Governors of the
Asian Development Bank will be held in Bali, 4‐5 May 2009.
The Seminar Series and other ancillary meetings will
commence from 2 May 2009.
World Ocean Conference,
to be held in Manado on
May 11-14, 2009.

45. Major bombings since 2002
Place Date
Bali I October 12, 2002
JW Marriot August 5, 2003
Australian Embassy September 9, 2004
Bali II
a Octobe , 005
October 1, 2005
Ritz Carlton & JW Marriot July 17, 2009

46. The impact of bombings to the economy
bombings
IDR/US$ index, days
after terror attacts
0 = day of bomb blast
Sou ce e
Source: Helmi Armand, “Indonesia
a d, do es a
Economic Briefing –Jakarta Blasts:
Possible market implication,“17 July 2009.
Indonesia composite index,
days after terror attacts
0 = day of bomb blast
Source: Helmi Armand, “Indonesia
Economic Briefing –Jakarta Blasts:
g
Possible market implication,” 17 July 2009.

47. Kecenderungan umum
Dua kali pemilu pascareformasi berlangsung
sangat damai.
g
Masih ada euphoria demokrasi sejalan dengan
proses konsolidasi demokrasi, utamanya
penguatan k l b
t kelembagaan.
Tidak terjadi kristalisasi kutub-kutub ekstrem, baik
kiri
ki i maupun kanan k
k konvergensi id l i atau,
i ideologi t
bahkan, non-ideologis.
Praktis tak t j di
P kti t k terjadi perubahan rezim. Y
b h i Yang sekarang
k
bercokol adalah pentolan-pentolan Orde Baru:
Presiden, Wapres, Ketua DPR, Ketua DPD, Menko
Kesra kompromistik.

48. Penciutan jumlah partai
Jumlah partai di DPR akan menciut dengan
pemberlakuan parliamentary threshold 2,5
persen.
Berdasarkan hasil pemilu 2009 hanya ada 9
(sembilan) partai.
Pengelompokan antara partai berkuasa dan
partai oposisi akan lebih tegas
tegas.
Bisa menghasilkan pemerintahan dan checks &
balances yang lebih efektif.

49. Kian konvergen
Partai “kiri” tak ada yang lolos.
kiri
Partai “kiri-tengah” merosot: PDIP
Partai “kanan” melorot tajam (PPP), banyak pula
yang tak lolos (PBB, PBR, PDS, PKNU, dll.)
Partai “kanan-tengah” merosot (PKB dan PAN)
Partai tengah menggelembung (PD Golkar,
(PD, Golkar
Gerindra, Hanura)

50. Peluang jangan disia-siakan
Tidak membutuhkan proses transisi yang
panjang, k
j karena iincumbent.
b t
Pilpres satu p
p putaran memberikan waktu y g
yang
cukup leluasa untuk mempersiapkan segalanya
dengan lebih baik.
g
Tim ekonomi pada KIB-II lebih kredibel,
kompeten dan kompak
kompak.
RPJM realistik dan menukik atau fokus.

51. Bagian IV
Prospek 2010

52. The world economic outlook 2009-2010
outlook, 2009 2010
Description 2009 2010
World GDP growth, % -1.1 3.1
-United States -2.7
-2 7 1.5
15
-Euro Area -4.2 0.3
-Japan
Japan -5.4
54 1.7
17
-Developing economies 1.7 5.1
-China
Chi 8.5
85 9.0
90
-Asean-5 0.7 4.0
World trade growth, % -11.9 2.5
Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2009..

53. Indonesia upgraded!!!
Despite the weakness of the global economy, the
Economist Intelligence Unit has raised its forecast for
Indonesian economic growth. We now expect real GDP
to expand by 2.4% this year, compared with a
contraction of 1.4% in our previous forecast. We
expect growth to accelerate to 3.2% in 2010, up from
0.5%
0 5% previously. (Source: economist.com, May 22nd 2009 From the
i l
Economist Intelligence Unit ViewsWire.)
IMF (June 5, 2009): Looking forward, we have raised
5 forward
our projection of economic growth for 2009 to 3-4
p
percent (from 2.5 ) with inflation expected to decline to
( 2.5%) p
about 5 percent by the end of the year. .
Source: http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2009/pr09201.htm

54. Projections of GDP by several agencies
No Agency Date 2009 2010
1 Bank Indonesia March 2009 3.5 5.0
2 IIF July 2009 4.5 5.5
3 Go t o do es a
Gov’t of Indonesia Septe be 009
September 2009 4.5
5 55
5.5
4 ADB September 2009 4.3 5.4
5 World Bank September 2009 4.3 5.4
6 Economist October 2009 4.2 4.5
7 IMF October 2009 4.0 4.8

55. EIU’s prediction on Indonesian economy
GDP growth, percent
Source: The Economist, various issues.

56. Projections of GDP by expenditures
2008 2009* 2010*
Description
BI Bappenas FB FB
Private consumption 5,3 3,7 3.5 5.1 4.8‐5.0
Gov’t consumption 10,4 9,9 7.7 13.2 7.6‐10.5
Investment 11,7 6,0 5.0 4.5 7.1‐7.6
Exports (goods &
services) 9,5 ‐4.6
4.6 ‐6.0
6.0 ‐16.2
16.2 6.3 6.4
6.3‐6.4
Imports (goods &
services 10,0 ‐4.8 ‐9.0 ‐21.8 8.0
Gross domestic product
G d i d 6,1
61 4,0
40 4.0
40 4,7
47 5.4‐5.9
5459
* Projection

57. Projections of GDP by sector
Economic sector 2008 2009* 2010*
1. Agriculture 4.8 3.9 3.4-3.6
2. Mining 0.5 1.5 0.4-1.6
3. Manufacturing
3 M f t i 3.7 2.5 3.1-3.9
4. Utilities 10.9 11.1 10.7-11.2
5.
5 Construction 7.3
73 6.4
64 6.9-7.2
6972
6. Trade and hospitality 7.2 2.3 4.6-5.7
7. Transport and communications 16.7 15.5 15.2 16.6
15.2-16.6
8. Finance 8.2 6.2 6.5-6.9
9. Services 6.4 6.5 6.5
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT 6.1 4.7 5.4-5.9
* Projection

58. Projection of selected economic indicators
2008 2009 2010
GDP growth, % 6.1 4.7 5.4-5.9
Inflation, % 11.2 3.8 4.5-5.5
Current account, % of GDP 0.1 1.0 0.6 0.8
0.6-0.8
BI rate, year end, % 9.25 6.25 7.00
Rp/US$, period average 9,767 10,050 9,250-9,500
Fiscal balance, % of GDP -0.1 -2.0 -1.5
Open unemployment, % 8.4 8.1 8.0

59. Rupiah cenderung menguat
Sepanjang likuiditas yang melimpah di AS belum
disedot The Fed, nilai US$ akan cenderung melemah.
Dengan pasar domestik yang cukup besar, Indonesia
semakin menarik bagi FDI. Beberapa sudah masuk.
Akan cukup banyak yang menyusul, asalkan ..
Moody s
Moody’s sudah meningkatkan rating Indonesia. Jika tak
Indonesia
ada halangan mendasar, S & P pun diperkirakan bakal
melakukan upgrade dari BB+ menjadi BBB-. Dengan
pg j g
begitu, institutional investors akan semakin tertarik
masuk ke pasar modal kita.
Namun volatilitas Rupiah harus tetap diwaspadai.

60. External vulnerability: regional comparison
– economic perception
Too big, too high
Bloomberg commodity price
index
Should
be here
Source: CITI’s Asia Macro Views, “Measuring Asia’s External
Vulnerability,” 8 October 2008

61. Proyeksi pertumbuhan PDB menurut pengeluaran
Versi Dasar dengan pertumbuhan PDB rata-rata 2010-14 = 6,3%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Konsumsi masyarakat
K i k t 5,5
55 4,8
48 4,6
46 4,7
47 4,8
48 4,9
49
Konsumsi pemerintah 13,2 7,6 8,6 8,9 8,8 9,7
Investasi* 4,0 7,1 7,6 8,7 8,3 7,9
Ekspor barang & jasa -16,2
16 2 6,4
64 7,7
77 12,2
12 2 14,8
14 8 15,3
15 3
Impor barang & jasa -21,8 8,0 8,2 13,8 15,1 15,5
Produk Domestik Bruto 4,8 5,4 5,8 6,3 6,9 7,1
Versi Optimistik dengan rata-rata pertumbuhan PDB 2010-14 = 6,9%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Konsumsi masyarakat
K i k t 5,1
51 5,0
50 4,7
47 4,8
48 4,6
46 5,0
50
Konsumsi pemerintah 13,2 10,5 8,6 8,9 9,2 9,7
Investasi* 5,0 7,6 9,0 11,6 11,1 7,9
Ekspor barang & jasa -16,2 6,4 9,8 12,2 14,2 15,7
Impor barang & jasa -21,8 8,0 10,2 13,5 14,8 15,5
Produk Domestik Bruto 4,8 5,9 6,5 7,2 7,4 7,4

62. Proyeksi pertumbuhan PDB menurut sektor
Versi Dasar dengan pertumbuhan PDB rata-rata 2010-14 = 6,3%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
1. Pertanian 3,3 3,4 3,4 3,3 3,4 3,5
2.
2 Pertambangan 0,4 0,4 0,3
03 0,4
04 1,1
11 0,9
09
3. Industri manufaktur 2,6 3,1 4,5 5,1 5,3 6,0
4. Utilitas 10,6 10,7 10,6 10,7 10,7 10,7
5. Konstruksi 7,2 7,3 7,0 7,1 7,1 7,1
6. Perdagangan & hospitalitas 2,4 4,6 5,3 6,7 7,0 7,1
7. Transport & komunikasi 16,1 15,2 14,3 14,5 16,7 16,3
8. Keuangan 8,0 7,9 7,4 7,5 7,4 7,5
9.
9 Jasa-jasa 6,6
66 6,5
65 6,6
66 6,6
66 6,6
66 6,3
63
Produk Domestik Bruto 4,8 5,4 5,8 6,3 6,8 7,1

63. Proyeksi pertumbuhan PDB menurut sektor
Versi Optimistik dengan rata-rata pertumbuhan PDB 2010-14 = 6,9%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
1. Pertanian 3,9 3,6 3,8 4,0 4,1 4,2
e a ba ga
2. Pertambangan 1,5
, 1,6
, 2,3
,3 2,7
, 2,2
, 2,0
,0
3. Industri manufaktur 2,6 3,9 4,8 5,5 6,3 6,5
4. Utilitas 11,2 11,2 11,5 11,7 11,7 11,4
5. Konstruksi 6,4 6,9 7,5 7,5 7,3 7,1
6. Perdagangan & hospitalitas 2,3 5,7 6,6 7,3 7,6 7,4
7. Transport & komunikasi 16,5 16,6 15,6 17,7 16,7 16,3
8. Keuangan 6,2 6,9 7,5 7,6 7,5 6,9
9. Jasa-jasa
9 Jasa jasa 6,6
66 6,5
65 6,6
66 6,6
66 6,6
66 6,3
63
Produk Domestik Bruto 4,8 5,9 6,5 7,2 7,4 7,4

64. Kebutuhan investasi
Skenario Indikator 2008 2009F 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F
Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, %YoY
, 6.1 4.8 5.4 5.8 6.3 6.9 7.1
PDB Nominal, Rp Tril 4954 5795 6791 8015 9479 11299 13548
Baseline Kebutuhan Investasi, Rp Tril 1370 1698 1967 2405 2885 3240 3776
Investasi/PDB, % 27.6 29.3 29.0 30.0 30.4 28.7 27.9
ICOR 3.7 5.0 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.8
Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, %YoY 6.1 4.8 5.9 6.5 7.2 7.4 7.4
PDB Nominal Rp Tril
Nominal, 4954 5795 6823 8104 9661 11577 13916
Adjustment Kebutuhan Investasi, Rp Tril 1370 1698 1976 2432 2941 3320 3879
Investasi/PDB, % 27.6 29.3 29.0 30.0 30.4 28.7 27.9
ICOR 3.7 5.0 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.6

65. Sumber dana investasi
Skenario Sumber Unit 2008 2009F 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F
Nilai, Rp T 1179 1500 1700 2091 2517 2815 3286
Swasta
Pangsa,
Pangsa % 86.1
86 1 88.3
88 3 86.4
86 4 87.0
87 0 87.2
87 2 86.9
86 9 87.0
87 0
Nilai, Rp T 191 198 267 314 368 425 490
Pemerintah
Baseline Pangsa, % 13.9 11.7 13.6 13.0 12.8 13.1 13.0
Nilai, Rp T 1370 1698 1967 2405 2885 3240 3776
Total
Pangsa, % 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Peningkatan PDB Rp T 1005 841 996 1224 1464 1820 2249
Nilai, Rp T 1179 1500 1708 2114 2565 2885 3376
Swasta
Pangsa, %
P 86.1
86 1 88.3
88 3 86.4
86 4 87.0
87 0 87.2
87 2 86.9
86 9 87.0
87 0
Nilai, Rp T 191 198 268 317 375 436 503
Pemerintah
Adjustment Pangsa, % 13.9 11.7 13.6 13.0 12.8 13.1 13.0
Nilai, Rp T
, p 1370 1698 1976 2432 2941 3320 3879
Total
Pangsa, % 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Peningkatan PDB Rp T 1005 841 1028 1280 1557 1916 2339
Catatan: - Investasi Pemerintah adalah Belanja Barang Modal Pemerintah Pusat + Pemerintah Dati I & II
- Peningkatan PDB menggambarkan jumlah utang maksimum yang bisa dikeluarkan oleh pemerintah
dengan menjaga rasio DEBT/GDP tetap konstan.

66. Keunikan Indonesia

67. Negara kepulauan
Mewujudkan negara maritim yang
mampu mengintegrasikan
perekonomian domestik menuju
negara maju yang berkeadilan

68. Kerangka Strategi Pembangunan
VISI:
Mewujudkan negara maritim yang mampu mengintegrasikan
perekonomian domestik menuju negara maju yang berkeadilan
M 1. Pertumbuhan ekonomi yang tinggi dan berkelanjutan;
I
S 2. Perluasan penyerapan tenaga kerja;
I 3. Pengentasan kemiskinan dan pemerataan pembangunan.
Melalui pencapaian 5 (lima) sasaran strategis:
p p ( ) g
Struktur Sumber
Pemanfaatan Birokrasi yang
ekonomi yang Sumber daya pembiayaan
SDA secara kompeten,
kokoh, mandiri manusia pembangunan
optimal dan efektif dan
dan berdaya produktif mencukupi dan
lestari bersih
saing efisien
Fokus pada 7 area kebijakan:
pada kebijakan:
Infrastruktur Kualitas sumber Teknologi Pasar tenaga Pasar modal Pasar barang: Kebijakan
• Penyediaan daya manusia • Peningkatan dan kerja: dan perbankan: • Sistem distribusi afirmatif:
infrastruktur (fisik
( • Implementasi
l i efisiensi alokasi
fi i i l k i • P
Penyempurnaan • M bili i d
Mobilisasi dana yang efisien.
yang efisien • Active industrial
dan non fisik) sistem pendanaan anggaran negara UU masyarakat: • Perlindungan policy: men‐
yang handal; kesehatan untuk ketenagakerjaan; tabungan haji, wajar bagi dorong kegiatan
penelitian; • Peningkatan surplus dana produsen usaha potensial
• Skema pendanaan berkelanjutan dan
• Insentif kegiatan penyerapan masyarakat. domestik dari dan strategis;
• Kebijakan harga terencana; • Monetisasi asset persaingan tidak
R&D oleh tenaga kerja • Penguatan
infrastruktur. • Pembangunan sektor formal; negara; adil dengan
swasta; struktur pelaku
pendidikan
pendidikan • Implementasi
Implementasi • Peningkatan
Peningkatan produsen luar
produsen luar usaha;
h
mengacu pada sistem jaminan basis pajak. negeri; • Persebaran
output. sosial bagi spasial kegiatan
pekerja; ekonomi
Lingkungan sosial dan politik Kerangka kelembagaan Struktur pasar 68
SUPRASTRUKTUR

69. Logistic cost in comparison

70. Port efficiency
Container handling cost per Ship movement per hour
40 feet (US$) (unit)
L. Chabang, Thailand 43 L. Chabang, Thailand 75
Chittagong, Bangladesh 60 Chittagong, Bangladesh
g g g 10
Kwangyang, Korea 69 Kwangyang, Korea 80
Port Klang, Malaysia 70 Port Klang, Malaysia 50
Manila, Philippines 85 Minila, Philippines 20
Keohsiung,Taiwan 88 Keohsiung, Taiwan 75
T. Priok, Indonesia 130 T. Priok, Indonesia 35
Source: USAID-SENADA, 2008.
Tanjung Priok is the biggest seaport in Indonesia, but the
productivity is the lowest among neighbouring countris

71. Waspada
Recovery ekonomi dunia yang pesat tahun
2010 mendorong kenaikan real demand
untuk commodities. Harga minyak bisa
kembali menembus US$100 per barrel.
Implementasi FTA dengan China bisa
mengganggu pemulihan industri manufaktur.
Skandal d
Sk d l demii skandall akan t k k
k d k terkuak,
menyentuh lapisan elit.

72. Terima Kasih
Email: faisal basri@gmail com
faisal.basri@gmail.com
Blog: http://kompasiana.com/faisalbasri