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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER
QE Index: Short-Term – Neutral
The QE Index respected the support of the 21-day moving average
(currently at 9,604.07) and moved higher around 20 points (0.21%) to
close at 9,628.30. The index rebounded from its day’s low of
9,576.74 as buyers stepped in and pushed the price higher. Traders
are advised to wait for a further bullish confirmation. If the index
manages to cling on to the 21-day moving average on a closing
basis, it may test 9,670.0; else it may have bearish implications.
United Development Co.: Short-Term – Pull Back
UDCD declined further yesterday after it penetrated below the
QR21.70 level on Monday. Notably, volumes have also increased on
the decline which is a negative sign. We believe although the stock is
trading close to its support of the 21-day moving average (currently at
QR21.32) it seems unlikely that UDCD may cling on to it and may
head lower to test QR20.75. However, traders may keep a close
watch on QR21.70 for any reversal. Both indicators look weak.
Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Neutral
The QERI Index fell for the second consecutive day marginally by
around 2 points (-0.06%) to close the session at 2,756.64. The index
momentarily dipped below the 21-day moving average, but quickly
reversed and managed to reclaim it. However, if the index penetrates
below the 21-day moving average on a closing basis, it may witness
selling pressure and test the 2,725.0 level. Conversely, if the index
manages to hold the 21-day moving average, it may proceed ahead.
Widam Food Co.: Short-Term – Pull Back
WDAM dipped below the support of the 21-day moving average
(currently at QR51.15) on the back of large volumes. WDAM has
been declining steadily and caved in to selling pressure yesterday.
The stock is currently trading exactly at its support of QR51.0. The
key for the stock remains whether it can cling on to it. We believe if
the stock penetrates below this level, it may drift lower to test QR49.0.
Meanwhile, both indicators are pointing down, indicating weakness.
Milaha: Short-Term – Pull Back
QNNS continued to move lower yesterday after it dipped below the
support of QR80.40 on Monday. We believe until the stock trades
below the QR80.40 level, the upmove seems to be in jeopardy and
may drift lower to test the 21-day moving average (currently at
QR79.50). Moreover, the RSI is moving down toward the midline,
while the MACD has crossed the signal line in a bearish manner.
However, a close above QR80.40 may attract buying interest.
Industries Qatar: Short-Term – Bounce Back
IQCD breached its resistances of QR150.30 and the 21-day moving
average (currently at QR150.85) in a single swoop and seems to be
in uptrend mode. We believe the recent price action and current
momentum may push the price higher to test QR153.0, which if
breached, may spark additional buying interest toward QR154.0.
Moreover, both the RSI and MACD lines are pointing upward with no
immediate trend reversal sings, thus supporting our bullish outlook.
Contacts
Saugata Sarkar Ahmed M. Shehada Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC
Head of Research Head of Trading Head of Sales Manager - HNWI Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 PO Box 24025
saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.shehada@qnbfs.com.qa keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar
DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is
regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal,
tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS
believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or
warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express
viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report.
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS.
Page 2 of 2
*These stocks are today’s suggested ideas
Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55-
day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT.
Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels.
Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and
long-term trends.
Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend.
Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine
tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices.
Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend.
Definitions:
1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period.
2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be
considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days.
3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day
exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa.
Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance
Short Term Long Term First Second First Second
Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 9,628.30 UP DOWN 9,500.00 9,440.00 10,200.00 10,350.00
Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 2,756.64 FLAT DOWN 2,700.00 2,600.00 2,950.00 3,000.00
Banks and Financial Services
Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD) 28.75 DOWN DOWN 24.00 23.20 31.40 33.00
Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 68.40 UP DOWN 63.90 62.40 84.20 87.20
Doha Bank (DHBK QD) 53.70 UP UP 42.00 39.50 57.14 58.00
Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 68.10 DOWN DOWN 65.00 64.30 78.50 79.60
Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 55.90 FLAT UP 47.90 45.00 60.80 61.50
Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 60.00 FLAT FLAT 58.50 57.00 62.30 63.30
National Leasing Holding Co. (NLCS QD) 34.40 FLAT DOWN 32.00 31.00 43.90 45.00
Consumer Goods and Services
Widam Food Co. (WDAM QD)* 51.80 DOWN UP 47.50 46.70 69.10 78.50
Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS) 131.30 FLAT DOWN 129.90 128.50 134.50 136.00
Industrials
Industries Qatar (IQCD QD)* 152.10 DOWN DOWN 144.10 142.00 175.20 176.80
Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 157.80 UP FLAT 140.00 132.10 172.00 174.00
Gulf International Services (GISS QD)* 51.10 UP UP 30.50 29.50 54.00 55.90
Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 28.85 DOWN FLAT 20.36 20.00 31.80 33.50
Real Estate
Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 24.98 DOWN FLAT 22.80 19.50 29.25 29.90
United Development Co. (UDCD QD)* 21.50 DOWN FLAT 17.06 16.00 25.30 25.90
Telecom
Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 139.00 UP UP 108.00 98.10 146.00 148.00
Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 9.02 DOWN DOWN 8.50 8.24 9.98 10.20
Transportation
Nakilat (QGTS QD) 19.11 DOWN UP 15.08 14.52 21.15 21.70
Milaha (QNNS QD) 80.00 UP UP 58.20 56.70 84.90 86.50

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2 October Daily Technical Trader

  • 1. Page 1 of 2 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER QE Index: Short-Term – Neutral The QE Index respected the support of the 21-day moving average (currently at 9,604.07) and moved higher around 20 points (0.21%) to close at 9,628.30. The index rebounded from its day’s low of 9,576.74 as buyers stepped in and pushed the price higher. Traders are advised to wait for a further bullish confirmation. If the index manages to cling on to the 21-day moving average on a closing basis, it may test 9,670.0; else it may have bearish implications. United Development Co.: Short-Term – Pull Back UDCD declined further yesterday after it penetrated below the QR21.70 level on Monday. Notably, volumes have also increased on the decline which is a negative sign. We believe although the stock is trading close to its support of the 21-day moving average (currently at QR21.32) it seems unlikely that UDCD may cling on to it and may head lower to test QR20.75. However, traders may keep a close watch on QR21.70 for any reversal. Both indicators look weak. Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Neutral The QERI Index fell for the second consecutive day marginally by around 2 points (-0.06%) to close the session at 2,756.64. The index momentarily dipped below the 21-day moving average, but quickly reversed and managed to reclaim it. However, if the index penetrates below the 21-day moving average on a closing basis, it may witness selling pressure and test the 2,725.0 level. Conversely, if the index manages to hold the 21-day moving average, it may proceed ahead. Widam Food Co.: Short-Term – Pull Back WDAM dipped below the support of the 21-day moving average (currently at QR51.15) on the back of large volumes. WDAM has been declining steadily and caved in to selling pressure yesterday. The stock is currently trading exactly at its support of QR51.0. The key for the stock remains whether it can cling on to it. We believe if the stock penetrates below this level, it may drift lower to test QR49.0. Meanwhile, both indicators are pointing down, indicating weakness. Milaha: Short-Term – Pull Back QNNS continued to move lower yesterday after it dipped below the support of QR80.40 on Monday. We believe until the stock trades below the QR80.40 level, the upmove seems to be in jeopardy and may drift lower to test the 21-day moving average (currently at QR79.50). Moreover, the RSI is moving down toward the midline, while the MACD has crossed the signal line in a bearish manner. However, a close above QR80.40 may attract buying interest. Industries Qatar: Short-Term – Bounce Back IQCD breached its resistances of QR150.30 and the 21-day moving average (currently at QR150.85) in a single swoop and seems to be in uptrend mode. We believe the recent price action and current momentum may push the price higher to test QR153.0, which if breached, may spark additional buying interest toward QR154.0. Moreover, both the RSI and MACD lines are pointing upward with no immediate trend reversal sings, thus supporting our bullish outlook.
  • 2. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Ahmed M. Shehada Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC Head of Research Head of Trading Head of Sales Manager - HNWI Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 PO Box 24025 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.shehada@qnbfs.com.qa keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 2 of 2 *These stocks are today’s suggested ideas Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55- day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT. Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels. Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends. Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend. Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices. Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend. Definitions: 1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period. 2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days. 3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance Short Term Long Term First Second First Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 9,628.30 UP DOWN 9,500.00 9,440.00 10,200.00 10,350.00 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 2,756.64 FLAT DOWN 2,700.00 2,600.00 2,950.00 3,000.00 Banks and Financial Services Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD) 28.75 DOWN DOWN 24.00 23.20 31.40 33.00 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 68.40 UP DOWN 63.90 62.40 84.20 87.20 Doha Bank (DHBK QD) 53.70 UP UP 42.00 39.50 57.14 58.00 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 68.10 DOWN DOWN 65.00 64.30 78.50 79.60 Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 55.90 FLAT UP 47.90 45.00 60.80 61.50 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 60.00 FLAT FLAT 58.50 57.00 62.30 63.30 National Leasing Holding Co. (NLCS QD) 34.40 FLAT DOWN 32.00 31.00 43.90 45.00 Consumer Goods and Services Widam Food Co. (WDAM QD)* 51.80 DOWN UP 47.50 46.70 69.10 78.50 Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS) 131.30 FLAT DOWN 129.90 128.50 134.50 136.00 Industrials Industries Qatar (IQCD QD)* 152.10 DOWN DOWN 144.10 142.00 175.20 176.80 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 157.80 UP FLAT 140.00 132.10 172.00 174.00 Gulf International Services (GISS QD)* 51.10 UP UP 30.50 29.50 54.00 55.90 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 28.85 DOWN FLAT 20.36 20.00 31.80 33.50 Real Estate Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 24.98 DOWN FLAT 22.80 19.50 29.25 29.90 United Development Co. (UDCD QD)* 21.50 DOWN FLAT 17.06 16.00 25.30 25.90 Telecom Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 139.00 UP UP 108.00 98.10 146.00 148.00 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 9.02 DOWN DOWN 8.50 8.24 9.98 10.20 Transportation Nakilat (QGTS QD) 19.11 DOWN UP 15.08 14.52 21.15 21.70 Milaha (QNNS QD) 80.00 UP UP 58.20 56.70 84.90 86.50