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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER
QE Index: Short-Term – Neutral
The QE Index ended last week’s five-day winning streak as it
witnessed some profit-booking to close 31 points lower (-0.30%) at
10,078.78. The index penetrated below the psychological level of
10,100.0 as well as the ascending trendline support, but volumes
were low on the decline. The index needs to hold on to its support
near the 10,050.0 level in order to advance back toward the 10,100.0
level. However, a dip below 10,050.0 may result in testing 10,000.0.
Widam Food Co.: Short-Term – Bounce Back
QMLS found support near the lower end of the horizontal line at
QR56.0 and rebounded on Sunday. QMLS now seems poised for an
upward move that may test and surpass its next resistance at
QR57.0, targeting the QR57.90 level. Moreover, the RSI is moving
higher from an oversold territory, while the MACD is approaching the
signal line from downside in a bullish manner, thus indicating our
bullish outlook for the stock.
Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Neutral
The QERI Index declined below the 2,900.0 psychological level to
shed around 8 points (-0.27%) and closed yesterday’s session at
2,894.77. Moreover, the index formed a Doji pattern, indicating
indecision. The index faces immediate support near the 2,888.0 level,
a drop below which is likely to result in testing the 2,871.69 level. We
believe the current trend is higher, and the index needs to climb
above the 2,900.0 psychological level in order to continue the trend.
United Development Co.: Short-Term – Pull Back
UDCD is on a downtrend mode and has moved along the bearish line
that has restricted its bullish move since July. We believe, as long as
UDCD trades below this line, its upward movement is in jeopardy.
Although UDCD is trading close to its support at QR22.70, it seems
unlikely that the stock can cling on to it and may drift lower, targeting
the QR22.40. However, a respect of support at QR22.70 would
indicate an advance toward the bearish trendline at QR22.90.
Qatar Islamic Bank: Short-Term – Pull Back
QIBK failed to make further headway above QR74.0 and declined
after witnessing strong gains since the past two days. We believe the
stock is now poised to decline further from the current level and test
its support at QR72.50. If this level is breached, more selling pressure
is likely to develop with an initial target of QR71.50. Moreover, the RSI
has shown bearish diversion, indicating weakness. However, a rise
above QR74.0 on a closing basis may attract buyers.
Milaha: Short-Term – Pull Back
QNNS reversed and penetrated below the ascending trendline at
QR82.50 after clearing its resistance on Thursday. This action
indicates that QNNS needs consolidation before its next upward
move. Moreover, the stock developed a bearish Marubozu Candle
pattern, indicating the stock may decline to test QR82.0. The RSI has
also shown a bearish divergence, indicating a likely correction.
However, a move above QR82.50 may indicate a false breakdown.
Contacts
Saugata Sarkar Ahmed M. Shehada Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC
Head of Research Head of Trading Head of Sales Manager - HNWI Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 PO Box 24025
saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.shehada@qnbfs.com.qa keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar
DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is
regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal,
tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS
believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or
warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express
viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report.
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS.
Page 2 of 2
*These stocks are today’s suggested ideas
Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55-
day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT.
Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK.QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels.
Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and
long-term trends.
Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend.
Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine
tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices.
Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend.
Definitions:
1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period.
2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be
considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days.
3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day
exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa.
Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance
Short Term Long Term First Second First Second
Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 10,078.78 UP UP 9,800.00 9,700.00 10,200.00 10,350.00
Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 2,894.77 UP UP 2,800.00 2,750.00 2,950.00 3,000.00
Banks and Financial Services
Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD) 30.00 UP UP 24.00 23.20 31.40 33.00
Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 70.30 UP UP 63.90 62.40 84.20 87.20
Doha Bank (DHBK QD) 55.60 UP UP 42.00 39.50 57.14 58.00
Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD)* 73.30 UP UP 67.60 67.00 78.50 79.60
Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 58.40 UP UP 47.90 45.00 60.80 61.50
Al Khalij Commercial Bank (KCBK QD) 18.93 UP UP 16.05 15.85 19.90 20.75
National Leasing Holding Co. (NLCS QD) 36.00 UP FLAT 32.00 31.00 43.90 45.00
Consumer Goods and Services
Widam Food Co. (QMLS QD)* 56.80 DOWN DOWN 55.30 52.30 69.10 78.50
Industrials
Industries Qatar (IQCD QD) 161.30 UP FLAT 156.45 155.50 175.20 176.80
Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 164.40 DOWN DOWN 140.00 132.10 172.00 174.00
Gulf International Services (GISS QD) 49.80 UP UP 30.50 29.50 52.00 54.00
Qatari Investors Group (KHCD QD) 30.85 UP UP 20.36 20.00 31.80 33.50
Real Estate
Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 26.10 UP DOWN 22.80 19.50 29.25 29.90
United Development Co. (UDCD QD)* 22.75 DOWN DOWN 17.06 16.00 25.30 25.90
Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development (MRDS QD) 11.91 UP UP 10.17 9.42 12.65 13.20
Telecom
Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 145.70 UP UP 108.00 98.10 146.00 148.00
Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 9.38 UP UP 8.90 8.24 9.98 10.20
Transportation
Nakilat (QGTS QD) 20.35 UP UP 15.08 14.52 21.15 21.70
Milaha (QNNS QD)* 82.40 UP UP 58.20 56.70 84.90 86.50

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26 August Daily Technical Trader

  • 1. Page 1 of 2 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER QE Index: Short-Term – Neutral The QE Index ended last week’s five-day winning streak as it witnessed some profit-booking to close 31 points lower (-0.30%) at 10,078.78. The index penetrated below the psychological level of 10,100.0 as well as the ascending trendline support, but volumes were low on the decline. The index needs to hold on to its support near the 10,050.0 level in order to advance back toward the 10,100.0 level. However, a dip below 10,050.0 may result in testing 10,000.0. Widam Food Co.: Short-Term – Bounce Back QMLS found support near the lower end of the horizontal line at QR56.0 and rebounded on Sunday. QMLS now seems poised for an upward move that may test and surpass its next resistance at QR57.0, targeting the QR57.90 level. Moreover, the RSI is moving higher from an oversold territory, while the MACD is approaching the signal line from downside in a bullish manner, thus indicating our bullish outlook for the stock. Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Neutral The QERI Index declined below the 2,900.0 psychological level to shed around 8 points (-0.27%) and closed yesterday’s session at 2,894.77. Moreover, the index formed a Doji pattern, indicating indecision. The index faces immediate support near the 2,888.0 level, a drop below which is likely to result in testing the 2,871.69 level. We believe the current trend is higher, and the index needs to climb above the 2,900.0 psychological level in order to continue the trend. United Development Co.: Short-Term – Pull Back UDCD is on a downtrend mode and has moved along the bearish line that has restricted its bullish move since July. We believe, as long as UDCD trades below this line, its upward movement is in jeopardy. Although UDCD is trading close to its support at QR22.70, it seems unlikely that the stock can cling on to it and may drift lower, targeting the QR22.40. However, a respect of support at QR22.70 would indicate an advance toward the bearish trendline at QR22.90. Qatar Islamic Bank: Short-Term – Pull Back QIBK failed to make further headway above QR74.0 and declined after witnessing strong gains since the past two days. We believe the stock is now poised to decline further from the current level and test its support at QR72.50. If this level is breached, more selling pressure is likely to develop with an initial target of QR71.50. Moreover, the RSI has shown bearish diversion, indicating weakness. However, a rise above QR74.0 on a closing basis may attract buyers. Milaha: Short-Term – Pull Back QNNS reversed and penetrated below the ascending trendline at QR82.50 after clearing its resistance on Thursday. This action indicates that QNNS needs consolidation before its next upward move. Moreover, the stock developed a bearish Marubozu Candle pattern, indicating the stock may decline to test QR82.0. The RSI has also shown a bearish divergence, indicating a likely correction. However, a move above QR82.50 may indicate a false breakdown.
  • 2. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Ahmed M. Shehada Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC Head of Research Head of Trading Head of Sales Manager - HNWI Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 PO Box 24025 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.shehada@qnbfs.com.qa keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 2 of 2 *These stocks are today’s suggested ideas Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55- day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT. Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK.QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels. Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends. Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend. Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices. Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend. Definitions: 1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period. 2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days. 3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance Short Term Long Term First Second First Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 10,078.78 UP UP 9,800.00 9,700.00 10,200.00 10,350.00 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 2,894.77 UP UP 2,800.00 2,750.00 2,950.00 3,000.00 Banks and Financial Services Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD) 30.00 UP UP 24.00 23.20 31.40 33.00 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 70.30 UP UP 63.90 62.40 84.20 87.20 Doha Bank (DHBK QD) 55.60 UP UP 42.00 39.50 57.14 58.00 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD)* 73.30 UP UP 67.60 67.00 78.50 79.60 Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 58.40 UP UP 47.90 45.00 60.80 61.50 Al Khalij Commercial Bank (KCBK QD) 18.93 UP UP 16.05 15.85 19.90 20.75 National Leasing Holding Co. (NLCS QD) 36.00 UP FLAT 32.00 31.00 43.90 45.00 Consumer Goods and Services Widam Food Co. (QMLS QD)* 56.80 DOWN DOWN 55.30 52.30 69.10 78.50 Industrials Industries Qatar (IQCD QD) 161.30 UP FLAT 156.45 155.50 175.20 176.80 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 164.40 DOWN DOWN 140.00 132.10 172.00 174.00 Gulf International Services (GISS QD) 49.80 UP UP 30.50 29.50 52.00 54.00 Qatari Investors Group (KHCD QD) 30.85 UP UP 20.36 20.00 31.80 33.50 Real Estate Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 26.10 UP DOWN 22.80 19.50 29.25 29.90 United Development Co. (UDCD QD)* 22.75 DOWN DOWN 17.06 16.00 25.30 25.90 Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development (MRDS QD) 11.91 UP UP 10.17 9.42 12.65 13.20 Telecom Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 145.70 UP UP 108.00 98.10 146.00 148.00 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 9.38 UP UP 8.90 8.24 9.98 10.20 Transportation Nakilat (QGTS QD) 20.35 UP UP 15.08 14.52 21.15 21.70 Milaha (QNNS QD)* 82.40 UP UP 58.20 56.70 84.90 86.50