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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER
QE Index: Short-Term – Neutral
After registering losses for four consecutive days last week, the QE
Index rebounded by around 53 points (0.57%) to close at 9,257.81.
However, the index witnessed some profit-booking near the 9,310.0
level and retreated, as buyers backed away from higher prices. The
short-term trend still remains downward. The index needs to surpass
the 9,310.0 level and hold it on a closing basis in order to change the
bearish trend and spark further buying interest.
Gulf International Services: Short-Term – Pull Back
GISS dipped below the support of QR44.0 as buyers backed away
from higher prices. GISS has been underperforming over the past few
days. We believe, since the immediate support of QR43.0 is still some
distance away from the current price, the outlook for GISS remains
bearish. Moreover, the MACD is on a downtrend mode, showing no
signs of trend reversal. However, if the stock manages to reclaim
QR44.0 on a closing basis, it may halt the bearish trend.
Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Neutral
The QERI Index finally managed to hold back the bears and reversed
by around 14 points (0.50%). The index momentarily moved above
the resistance of 2,654.53, but quickly reversed as it failed to gain
momentum. However, traders are advised to wait and watch if there
is any follow-through to yesterday’s rebound. If the index clears and
holds 2,654.53 on a closing basis, it may proceed toward 2,700.0;
else it may decline to test the support at 2,627.24.
United Development Co.: Short-Term – Pull Back
UDCD breached below the support of QR20.0 and continued on a
downtrend mode since encountering resistance at QR21.70. We
believe the stock is unlikely to hold on to its immediate support at
QR19.86 and may drift lower to test QR19.23. Moreover, both
indicators are trending downward, showing no reversal signs. Thus,
the preferred near-term direction for UDCD seems to be on the
downside. However, any move above QR20.0 may attract buyers.
Commercial Bank of Qatar: Short-Term – Bounce Back
CBQK respected the support at QR66.0 and moved higher to clear
the descending trendline resistance. Moreover, CBQK has developed
a bullish engulfing pattern, indicating the stock may move higher from
its current level. The stock is presently sitting right at its resistance of
QR66.90. We believe, this move may push the stock higher and test
QR67.90. Conversely, any dip below QR66.90 may pull the stock to
test the descending trendline at QR66.50.
Ooredoo: Short-Term – Bounce Back
ORDS breached the 55-day moving average (currently at QR132.46)
after respecting its support near the QR128.0 level on Thursday. The
stock is currently on the threshold of its next resistance at QR133.90.
A breakout of this level on a closing basis will play a major role in
determining the near-term direction and ORDS may reach QR136.0,
as it has little resistance until then. Moreover, the RSI has shown a
bullish divergence, thus supporting our positive technical outlook.
Contacts
Saugata Sarkar Ahmed M. Shehada Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC
Head of Research Head of Trading Head of Sales Manager - HNWI Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 PO Box 24025
saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.shehada@qnbfs.com.qa keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar
DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is
regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal,
tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS
believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or
warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express
viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report.
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS.
Page 2 of 2
*These stocks are today’s suggested ideas
Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55-
day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT.
Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels.
Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and
long-term trends.
Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend.
Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine
tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices.
Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend.
Definitions:
1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period.
2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be
considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days.
3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day
exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa.
Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance
Short Term Long Term First Second First Second
Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 9,257.81 DOWN DOWN 9,150.0 9,000.00 10,200.00 10,350.00
Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 2,654.33 DOWN DOWN 2,600.00 2,500.00 2,950.00 3,000.00
Banks and Financial Services
Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD) 28.10 DOWN DOWN 24.00 23.20 31.40 33.00
Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD)* 66.90 DOWN DOWN 63.90 62.40 84.20 87.20
Doha Bank (DHBK QD) 51.00 DOWN UP 42.00 39.50 57.14 58.00
Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 67.20 DOWN DOWN 66.00 65.00 78.50 79.60
Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 55.00 DOWN UP 47.90 45.00 60.80 61.50
Al Khalij Commercial Bank (KCBK QD) 18.14 UP UP 16.05 15.85 19.90 20.75
National Leasing Holding Co. (NLCS QD) 32.90 DOWN FLAT 32.00 31.00 43.90 45.00
Consumer Goods and Services
Widam Food Co. (QMLS QD) 49.70 DOWN DOWN 49.00 47.65 69.10 78.50
Industrials
Industries Qatar (IQCD QD) 146.00 DOWN DOWN 144.10 142.00 175.20 176.80
Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 152.50 DOWN FLAT 140.00 132.10 172.00 174.00
Gulf International Services (GISS QD)* 43.95 DOWN DOWN 30.50 29.50 52.00 54.00
Qatari Investors Group (KHCD QD) 27.20 DOWN DOWN 20.36 20.00 31.80 33.50
Real Estate
Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 24.09 DOWN DOWN 22.80 19.50 29.25 29.90
United Development Co. (UDCD QD)* 19.91 DOWN DOWN 17.06 16.00 25.30 25.90
Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development (MRDS QD) 11.32 DOWN DOWN 10.17 9.42 12.65 13.20
Telecom
Ooredoo (ORDS QD)* 133.40 DOWN UP 108.00 98.10 146.00 148.00
Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 8.88 DOWN DOWN 8.50 8.24 9.98 10.20
Transportation
Nakilat (QGTS QD) 18.41 DOWN UP 15.08 14.52 21.15 21.70
Milaha (QNNS QD) 77.00 DOWN UP 58.20 56.70 84.90 86.50

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9 September Daily Technical Trader

  • 1. Page 1 of 2 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER QE Index: Short-Term – Neutral After registering losses for four consecutive days last week, the QE Index rebounded by around 53 points (0.57%) to close at 9,257.81. However, the index witnessed some profit-booking near the 9,310.0 level and retreated, as buyers backed away from higher prices. The short-term trend still remains downward. The index needs to surpass the 9,310.0 level and hold it on a closing basis in order to change the bearish trend and spark further buying interest. Gulf International Services: Short-Term – Pull Back GISS dipped below the support of QR44.0 as buyers backed away from higher prices. GISS has been underperforming over the past few days. We believe, since the immediate support of QR43.0 is still some distance away from the current price, the outlook for GISS remains bearish. Moreover, the MACD is on a downtrend mode, showing no signs of trend reversal. However, if the stock manages to reclaim QR44.0 on a closing basis, it may halt the bearish trend. Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Neutral The QERI Index finally managed to hold back the bears and reversed by around 14 points (0.50%). The index momentarily moved above the resistance of 2,654.53, but quickly reversed as it failed to gain momentum. However, traders are advised to wait and watch if there is any follow-through to yesterday’s rebound. If the index clears and holds 2,654.53 on a closing basis, it may proceed toward 2,700.0; else it may decline to test the support at 2,627.24. United Development Co.: Short-Term – Pull Back UDCD breached below the support of QR20.0 and continued on a downtrend mode since encountering resistance at QR21.70. We believe the stock is unlikely to hold on to its immediate support at QR19.86 and may drift lower to test QR19.23. Moreover, both indicators are trending downward, showing no reversal signs. Thus, the preferred near-term direction for UDCD seems to be on the downside. However, any move above QR20.0 may attract buyers. Commercial Bank of Qatar: Short-Term – Bounce Back CBQK respected the support at QR66.0 and moved higher to clear the descending trendline resistance. Moreover, CBQK has developed a bullish engulfing pattern, indicating the stock may move higher from its current level. The stock is presently sitting right at its resistance of QR66.90. We believe, this move may push the stock higher and test QR67.90. Conversely, any dip below QR66.90 may pull the stock to test the descending trendline at QR66.50. Ooredoo: Short-Term – Bounce Back ORDS breached the 55-day moving average (currently at QR132.46) after respecting its support near the QR128.0 level on Thursday. The stock is currently on the threshold of its next resistance at QR133.90. A breakout of this level on a closing basis will play a major role in determining the near-term direction and ORDS may reach QR136.0, as it has little resistance until then. Moreover, the RSI has shown a bullish divergence, thus supporting our positive technical outlook.
  • 2. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Ahmed M. Shehada Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC Head of Research Head of Trading Head of Sales Manager - HNWI Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 PO Box 24025 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.shehada@qnbfs.com.qa keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 2 of 2 *These stocks are today’s suggested ideas Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55- day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT. Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels. Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends. Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend. Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices. Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend. Definitions: 1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period. 2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days. 3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance Short Term Long Term First Second First Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 9,257.81 DOWN DOWN 9,150.0 9,000.00 10,200.00 10,350.00 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 2,654.33 DOWN DOWN 2,600.00 2,500.00 2,950.00 3,000.00 Banks and Financial Services Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD) 28.10 DOWN DOWN 24.00 23.20 31.40 33.00 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD)* 66.90 DOWN DOWN 63.90 62.40 84.20 87.20 Doha Bank (DHBK QD) 51.00 DOWN UP 42.00 39.50 57.14 58.00 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 67.20 DOWN DOWN 66.00 65.00 78.50 79.60 Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 55.00 DOWN UP 47.90 45.00 60.80 61.50 Al Khalij Commercial Bank (KCBK QD) 18.14 UP UP 16.05 15.85 19.90 20.75 National Leasing Holding Co. (NLCS QD) 32.90 DOWN FLAT 32.00 31.00 43.90 45.00 Consumer Goods and Services Widam Food Co. (QMLS QD) 49.70 DOWN DOWN 49.00 47.65 69.10 78.50 Industrials Industries Qatar (IQCD QD) 146.00 DOWN DOWN 144.10 142.00 175.20 176.80 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 152.50 DOWN FLAT 140.00 132.10 172.00 174.00 Gulf International Services (GISS QD)* 43.95 DOWN DOWN 30.50 29.50 52.00 54.00 Qatari Investors Group (KHCD QD) 27.20 DOWN DOWN 20.36 20.00 31.80 33.50 Real Estate Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 24.09 DOWN DOWN 22.80 19.50 29.25 29.90 United Development Co. (UDCD QD)* 19.91 DOWN DOWN 17.06 16.00 25.30 25.90 Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development (MRDS QD) 11.32 DOWN DOWN 10.17 9.42 12.65 13.20 Telecom Ooredoo (ORDS QD)* 133.40 DOWN UP 108.00 98.10 146.00 148.00 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 8.88 DOWN DOWN 8.50 8.24 9.98 10.20 Transportation Nakilat (QGTS QD) 18.41 DOWN UP 15.08 14.52 21.15 21.70 Milaha (QNNS QD) 77.00 DOWN UP 58.20 56.70 84.90 86.50