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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER
QE Index: Short-Term – Pull Back
The QE Index witnessed heavy selling pressure throughout the day
on Monday and fell by around 181 points (-1.79%) to close the
session on a bearish note at 9,898.54. After witnessing an intense
selloff, the index breached the lower end of the channel line, and its
psychological support of 10,000.0 and 9,900.0 in a single swoop. The
next important support is near the 9,850.0 level. If the index breaches
this level, it may decline further to test the 9,765.0 level.
Industries Qatar: Short-Term – Pull Back
IQCD penetrated below its 21-day moving average (currently at
QR160.71) and its support level of QR159.20, on the back of large
volumes. IQCD has been consolidating in a bearish trendline for
many weeks, which has restricted the stock’s upward movement. The
stock developed a bearish Marubozu candle pattern, indicating a
likely downward move. We believe the stock may drift lower and test
QR158.0, followed by QR157.1.
Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Pull Back
The QERI Index reversed and fell around 54 points (-1.85%) to close
at 2,841.24. The index failed to make any further headway above
2,900.0 and penetrated both its support levels of 2,871.69 and the 21-
day moving average (currently at 2,847.20) in a single trading session
yesterday. The bearish momentum indicators suggest a short-term
weakness and a test of support at 2,835.40. Any sustained weakness
below this level, would drag the index to test 2,815.0.
United Development Co.: Short-Term – Pull Back
UDCD breached below the support of QR22.70 and declined further
yesterday. UDCD has been gradually setting for lower lows, since
encountering resistance in clearing the descending trendline. We
believe, the stock may move lower from its current level and test the
July low of QR21.89. The prognosis implies more downside to come,
with the RSI trending lower and the MACD becoming more negative.
However, a move above QR22.70 may halt the downward move.
Qatar Islamic Bank: Short-Term – Pull Back
QIBK dipped below the support of QR72.5 as well as the ascending
trendline on the back of increased volumes. QIBK has been
witnessing a correction, since the QR74.0 level restricted the stock’s
bullish momentum. Moreover, QIBK developed a red Marubozu
candle pattern, indicating the stock may not hold support at QR71.5,
targeting the QR70.8. With both the RSI and the MACD lines pointing
down, QIBK appears to be heading lower.
Milaha: Short-Term – Pull Back
QNNS declined below both its support levels of QR81.5 and QR80.4.
Notably, volumes were large on the decline, which is a negative sign.
Moreover, the RSI is pointing downward, and the MACD is moving in
a bearish manner. So, it looks like the near-term direction is toward
the downside. We believe the stock is weak at the current level and
may head lower to test QR79.2. Any sustained weakness may pull
the stock toward the lower end of the channel at QR78.5.
Contacts
Saugata Sarkar Ahmed M. Shehada Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC
Head of Research Head of Trading Head of Sales Manager - HNWI Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 PO Box 24025
saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.shehada@qnbfs.com.qa keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar
DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is
regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal,
tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS
believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or
warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express
viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report.
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS.
Page 2 of 2
*These stocks are today’s suggested ideas
Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55-
day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT.
Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK.QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels.
Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and
long-term trends.
Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend.
Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine
tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices.
Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend.
Definitions:
1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period.
2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be
considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days.
3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day
exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa.
Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance
Short Term Long Term First Second First Second
Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 9,898.54 UP UP 9,800.00 9,700.00 10,200.00 10,350.00
Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 2,841.24 DOWN UP 2,800.00 2,750.00 2,950.00 3,000.00
Banks and Financial Services
Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD) 29.40 UP UP 24.00 23.20 31.40 33.00
Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 69.20 DOWN DOWN 63.90 62.40 84.20 87.20
Doha Bank (DHBK QD) 54.50 UP UP 42.00 39.50 57.14 58.00
Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD)* 71.50 UP UP 67.60 67.00 78.50 79.60
Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 57.60 UP UP 47.90 45.00 60.80 61.50
Al Khalij Commercial Bank (KCBK QD) 18.80 UP UP 16.05 15.85 19.90 20.75
National Leasing Holding Co. (NLCS QD) 35.20 DOWN FLAT 32.00 31.00 43.90 45.00
Consumer Goods and Services
Widam Food Co. (QMLS QD)* 55.50 DOWN DOWN 55.30 52.30 69.10 78.50
Industrials
Industries Qatar (IQCD QD) 158.90 DOWN DOWN 156.45 155.50 175.20 176.80
Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 163.50 DOWN FLAT 140.00 132.10 172.00 174.00
Gulf International Services (GISS QD) 48.50 DOWN UP 30.50 29.50 52.00 54.00
Qatari Investors Group (KHCD QD) 29.50 UP UP 20.36 20.00 31.80 33.50
Real Estate
Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 25.80 DOWN FLAT 22.80 19.50 29.25 29.90
United Development Co. (UDCD QD)* 22.41 DOWN DOWN 17.06 16.00 25.30 25.90
Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development (MRDS QD) 11.80 UP UP 10.17 9.42 12.65 13.20
Telecom
Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 144.00 UP UP 108.00 98.10 146.00 148.00
Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 9.19 UP UP 8.90 8.24 9.98 10.20
Transportation
Nakilat (QGTS QD) 19.51 UP UP 15.08 14.52 21.15 21.70
Milaha (QNNS QD)* 80.10 UP UP 58.20 56.70 84.90 86.50

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27 August Daily Technical Trader

  • 1. Page 1 of 2 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER QE Index: Short-Term – Pull Back The QE Index witnessed heavy selling pressure throughout the day on Monday and fell by around 181 points (-1.79%) to close the session on a bearish note at 9,898.54. After witnessing an intense selloff, the index breached the lower end of the channel line, and its psychological support of 10,000.0 and 9,900.0 in a single swoop. The next important support is near the 9,850.0 level. If the index breaches this level, it may decline further to test the 9,765.0 level. Industries Qatar: Short-Term – Pull Back IQCD penetrated below its 21-day moving average (currently at QR160.71) and its support level of QR159.20, on the back of large volumes. IQCD has been consolidating in a bearish trendline for many weeks, which has restricted the stock’s upward movement. The stock developed a bearish Marubozu candle pattern, indicating a likely downward move. We believe the stock may drift lower and test QR158.0, followed by QR157.1. Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Pull Back The QERI Index reversed and fell around 54 points (-1.85%) to close at 2,841.24. The index failed to make any further headway above 2,900.0 and penetrated both its support levels of 2,871.69 and the 21- day moving average (currently at 2,847.20) in a single trading session yesterday. The bearish momentum indicators suggest a short-term weakness and a test of support at 2,835.40. Any sustained weakness below this level, would drag the index to test 2,815.0. United Development Co.: Short-Term – Pull Back UDCD breached below the support of QR22.70 and declined further yesterday. UDCD has been gradually setting for lower lows, since encountering resistance in clearing the descending trendline. We believe, the stock may move lower from its current level and test the July low of QR21.89. The prognosis implies more downside to come, with the RSI trending lower and the MACD becoming more negative. However, a move above QR22.70 may halt the downward move. Qatar Islamic Bank: Short-Term – Pull Back QIBK dipped below the support of QR72.5 as well as the ascending trendline on the back of increased volumes. QIBK has been witnessing a correction, since the QR74.0 level restricted the stock’s bullish momentum. Moreover, QIBK developed a red Marubozu candle pattern, indicating the stock may not hold support at QR71.5, targeting the QR70.8. With both the RSI and the MACD lines pointing down, QIBK appears to be heading lower. Milaha: Short-Term – Pull Back QNNS declined below both its support levels of QR81.5 and QR80.4. Notably, volumes were large on the decline, which is a negative sign. Moreover, the RSI is pointing downward, and the MACD is moving in a bearish manner. So, it looks like the near-term direction is toward the downside. We believe the stock is weak at the current level and may head lower to test QR79.2. Any sustained weakness may pull the stock toward the lower end of the channel at QR78.5.
  • 2. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Ahmed M. Shehada Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC Head of Research Head of Trading Head of Sales Manager - HNWI Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 PO Box 24025 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.shehada@qnbfs.com.qa keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 2 of 2 *These stocks are today’s suggested ideas Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55- day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT. Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK.QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels. Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends. Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend. Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices. Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend. Definitions: 1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period. 2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days. 3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance Short Term Long Term First Second First Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 9,898.54 UP UP 9,800.00 9,700.00 10,200.00 10,350.00 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 2,841.24 DOWN UP 2,800.00 2,750.00 2,950.00 3,000.00 Banks and Financial Services Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD) 29.40 UP UP 24.00 23.20 31.40 33.00 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 69.20 DOWN DOWN 63.90 62.40 84.20 87.20 Doha Bank (DHBK QD) 54.50 UP UP 42.00 39.50 57.14 58.00 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD)* 71.50 UP UP 67.60 67.00 78.50 79.60 Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 57.60 UP UP 47.90 45.00 60.80 61.50 Al Khalij Commercial Bank (KCBK QD) 18.80 UP UP 16.05 15.85 19.90 20.75 National Leasing Holding Co. (NLCS QD) 35.20 DOWN FLAT 32.00 31.00 43.90 45.00 Consumer Goods and Services Widam Food Co. (QMLS QD)* 55.50 DOWN DOWN 55.30 52.30 69.10 78.50 Industrials Industries Qatar (IQCD QD) 158.90 DOWN DOWN 156.45 155.50 175.20 176.80 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 163.50 DOWN FLAT 140.00 132.10 172.00 174.00 Gulf International Services (GISS QD) 48.50 DOWN UP 30.50 29.50 52.00 54.00 Qatari Investors Group (KHCD QD) 29.50 UP UP 20.36 20.00 31.80 33.50 Real Estate Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 25.80 DOWN FLAT 22.80 19.50 29.25 29.90 United Development Co. (UDCD QD)* 22.41 DOWN DOWN 17.06 16.00 25.30 25.90 Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development (MRDS QD) 11.80 UP UP 10.17 9.42 12.65 13.20 Telecom Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 144.00 UP UP 108.00 98.10 146.00 148.00 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 9.19 UP UP 8.90 8.24 9.98 10.20 Transportation Nakilat (QGTS QD) 19.51 UP UP 15.08 14.52 21.15 21.70 Milaha (QNNS QD)* 80.10 UP UP 58.20 56.70 84.90 86.50