Dividend Policy and Dividend Decision Theories.pptx
18 May Daily technical trader
1. Page 1 of 2
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER
QE Index: Short-Term – Neutral
The QE Index shed around 56 points (-0.42%) and declined for the
second straight session as traders continued to book profits.
However, both the short-term and the long-term uptrend in the index
remain intact. We believe if the index can manage to put its head
above the 13,080.0 level, it may advance toward 13,150.0. On the flip
side, any penetration below 13,080.0 may result in correction and
drag the index to test its support near 13,020.0.
Qatar Islamic Bank: Short-Term – Upmove
QIBK gained 2.35% and continued its rally on Thursday. Moreover,
the stock has been on a strong upmove mode ever since it breached
the 55-day moving average earlier in March. We believe the stock is
trending strong and may further extend its gains targeting the
QR96.50-QR97.0 levels. Meanwhile, the bullishness in the RSI is
intact, while the MACD is diverging away from the signal line toward
the upside, with no immediate trend reversal signals.
Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Neutral
The QERI Index witnessed a gap-up opening and gained around
0.52% to close the session at 4,332.66. We believe until the index
trades above its support near 4,302.0, it may further continue its rally
and proceed to a new high. However, a retreat below 4,302.0 on a
closing basis may result in a pullback. Meanwhile, the RSI is moving
up in a bullish manner, but the MACD is not supporting this uptrend
and has moved on the downside.
Qatar Electricity & Water Co.: Short-Term – Pullback
QEWS made a gap-up opening but failed to cling onto its gains above
QR190.0 and reversed. The stock faces a stiff resistance at QR190.0,
which it needs to clear on a closing basis in order to proceed ahead,
until then it may continue to drift lower. We believe although the stock
is sitting right at its support of QR188.0, QEWS is unlikely to hold onto
it and decline further to test QR186.0. Meanwhile, both the indicators
look weak, indicating a pullback.
Masraf Al Rayan: Short-Term – Rebound
MARK once again respected its support of QR49.75 on Thursday and
advanced on the back of large volumes, which is a positive signal. We
believe this continuous respect of support over the past few days may
lead to a higher move and the stock may test QR51.80. However, any
dip below QR50.40 may result in a further lower move and the stock
could test QR49.75. Meanwhile, the RSI is moving strongly into the
overbought territory, indicating a further rise.
Qatari Investors Group: Short-Term – Bounce Back
QIGD cleared the resistances of the 21-day moving average and
descending trendline in a single swoop, which had restricted its bullish
move in the past. Looking at the recent price swing and increasing
volumes, we believe the stock may march toward its next resistance
of QR68.40. However, a fall below the 21-day moving average may
pull the stock to test the descending trendline. Meanwhile, the RSI
has shown a bullish divergence, indicating a higher move.
2. Contacts
Saugata Sarkar Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC
Head of Research Head of Sales Manager - HNWI Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 PO Box 24025
saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar
DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is
regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal,
tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS
believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or
warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express
viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report.
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS.
Page 2 of 2
*These stocks are today’s suggested ideas
Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55-
day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT.
Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels.
Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and
long-term trends.
Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend.
Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine
tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices.
Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend.
Definitions:
1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period.
2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be
considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days.
3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day
exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa.
Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance
Short Term Long Term First Second First Second
Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 13,104.75 UP UP 13,079.52 13,019.55 13,196.00 13,280.00
Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 4,332.66 UP UP 4,301.89 4,247.34 4,341.10 4,370.00
Banks and Financial Services Banks and
Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD)* 50.80 UP UP 50.40 49.75 51.80 53.00
Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 69.00 FLAT UP 68.40 67.30 69.80 70.70
Doha Bank (DHBK QD) 65.40 UP UP 63.90 62.00 65.70 66.40
Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD)* 95.70 UP UP 94.80 93.20 96.50 97.20
Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 87.70 UP UP 86.10 83.00 87.80 89.00
Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 77.20 UP UP 77.00 76.00 79.00 81.40
Al Khalij Commercial Bank (KCBK QD) 23.29 FLAT UP 23.23 22.90 24.00 24.50
Consumer Goods and Services Consumer G
Medicare Group (MCGS QD) 87.50 UP UP 87.00 86.25 87.80 90.00
Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS QD) 184.00 DOWN UP 183.00 180.00 185.00 187.80
Industrials
Industries Qatar (IQCD QD) 188.50 UP UP 188.50 186.40 191.00 192.50
Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD)* 188.00 UP UP 188.00 186.00 190.00 195.00
Gulf International Services (GISS QD) 98.90 UP UP 98.00 97.00 100.00 104.50
Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD)* 67.30 UP UP 64.70 61.30 68.40 70.00
Real Estate
Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 38.75 UP UP 38.40 37.40 39.20 40.35
United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 26.00 UP UP 26.00 25.29 26.45 27.00
Telecom
Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 145.40 DOWN UP 145.00 143.00 148.00 149.00
Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 18.73 UP UP 17.99 17.30 18.75 19.29
Transportat
Nakilat (QGTS QD) 24.81 UP UP 24.61 24.20 25.00 25.55
Milaha (QNNS QD) 98.00 FLAT UP 96.50 94.00 100.10 102.50