10 August Daily technical trader


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10 August Daily technical trader

  1. 1. Page 1 of 2 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER QE Index: Short-Term – Neutral The QE Index declined for the second straight session and fell around 27 points (-0.21%) to close below the 13,100.0 mark. The index witnessed a gap-up opening and reached an intraday high of 13,162.76, but reversed as traders continued to book profits. We believe if the index manages to stay above 13,050.0 on a closing basis, it may rebound. However, any retreat below 13,050.0 may further drag the index to test the 13,000.0 psychological level. Qatari Investors Group: Short-Term – Bounce Back QIGD jumped 4.44% clearing the resistances of QR56.20 and the 21- day moving average in a single swoop. Notably, volumes were also large on the rise, indicating increased optimism among traders. We believe this strong breach of resistances has bullish implications and provides an upside target of QR57.70, followed by the 55-day moving average. However, a retreat below QR56.20 may pull the stock. Meanwhile, the RSI has shown a positive divergence. Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Neutral The QERI Index shed around 12 points (-0.26%) and ended the session in red for the second consecutive day on the back of profit- booking. The index faces its strong resistance of 4,529.0, whereas the support is seen at 4,445.0. A move above or below these level may decide the next direction of the index; until then it may continue to oscillate in the range. Meanwhile, both the momentum indicators are providing mixed signals, thus supporting our neutral outlook. Qatar Islamic Bank: Short-Term – Pullback QIBK failed to make any further headway above QR111.90 and reversed penetrating below its important support of QR109.50. We believe the stock may drift down toward its strong support of the ascending trendline at around QR108.50. Any sustained weakness below the trendline may drag the stock further down to test QR107.0. However, a close above QR109.50 may attract buyers. Meanwhile, the negative slope on the RSI indicates a likely decline. Al Meera Consumer Goods Co.: Short-Term –Upmove MERS gained 2.13% and moved higher above QR190.0 on Thursday, after pausing its current rally on Wednesday. The stock has been in upmove mode over the past few weeks, and is showing strength by registering strong gains. Moreover, both the momentum indicators are providing bullish signals. Thus, traders may consider buying the stock at the current level, and on declines up to QR190.50 for a target of QR194.80 with a stop loss of QR190.0. Milaha: Short-Term – Upmove QNNS built on its gains on Thursday and advanced by 1.40% on the back of increased participation. Moreover, the stock found support near the ascending trendline and cleared the resistances of QR93.0 & the 55-day moving average in a single trading session. Further, with the RSI moving up and the MACD showing signs of recovery, we believe the stock may continue to move higher and test its 21-day moving average. However, any dip below QR93.14 may be bearish.
  2. 2. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst Manager - HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 2 of 2 *These stocks are today’s suggested ideas Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55- day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT. Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels. Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends. Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend. Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices. Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend. Definitions: 1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period. 2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days. 3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance Short Term Long Term First Second First Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 13,076.33 UP UP 13,000.00 12,939.80 13,079.52 13,195.88 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 4,477.65 UP UP 4,444.86 4,375.30 4,528.58 4,638.81 Banks and Financial Services Banks and Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD) 53.80 FLAT FLAT 52.50 49.75 54.00 55.80 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 67.00 DOWN FLAT 66.50 65.90 67.30 68.30 Doha Bank (DHBK QD) 57.00 DOWN DOWN 56.50 55.50 57.40 58.90 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD)* 109.20 UP UP 107.00 104.50 109.50 111.90 Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 84.40 DOWN UP 83.50 82.80 85.00 86.10 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 92.00 UP UP 91.00 88.90 92.40 94.00 Al Khalij Commercial Bank (KCBK QD) 22.25 DOWN FLAT 21.99 21.80 22.35 22.60 Consumer Goods and Services Consumer G Medicare Group (MCGS QD) 118.70 UP UP 118.20 110.50 121.50 124.00 Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS QD)* 192.00 UP UP 190.00 187.80 194.80 196.00 Industrials Industrials Industries Qatar (IQCD QD) 169.60 DOWN DOWN 169.50 167.80 172.30 173.90 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 184.50 FLAT DOWN 184.00 182.00 186.00 188.00 Gulf International Services (GISS QD) 117.30 UP UP 115.00 111.90 118.10 119.50 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD)* 56.40 UP DOWN 56.20 54.20 57.70 60.60 Real Estate Real Estate Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 39.05 DOWN DOWN 38.40 37.50 39.20 39.70 United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 30.00 UP UP 29.90 29.30 30.61 31.93 Telecom Telecom Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 128.80 DOWN DOWN 126.00 123.70 129.70 131.50 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 19.78 UP UP 19.29 18.75 20.00 20.78 Transportation Transportat Nakilat (QGTS QD) 24.90 UP UP 24.45 24.12 25.30 25.90 Milaha (QNNS QD)* 93.90 FLAT UP 93.00 92.00 94.50 95.10