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15 July Daily technical trader


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15 July Daily technical trader

  1. 1. Page 1 of 2 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER QE Index: Short-Term – Upmove The QE Index moved 109 points (0.84%) higher to close near the psychological level of 13,000.0. The positive development was the reclaiming of the 12,900.0 level and also the breach of the resistance near 12,940.0 (sustaining above it). We believe the bulls will continue to dominate the bears until the index stays above 12,940.0, taking it higher toward the 13,070.0-13,100.0 levels. However, a retreat below 12,940.0 may drag the index back into the congestion zone. Medicare Group: Short-Term – Upmove After feigning a failure in the past few attempts, MCGS finally moved above the QR87.80 level, gaining 1.49%. Moreover, the stock is showing strength after crossing the 55-day moving average. We believe based on the recent price action and pick-up in volumes, MCGS may move further to test QR89.0. However, a decline below QR87.80 may halt its upmove. Meanwhile, both the indicators are providing bullish signals, indicating a likely higher move. Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Upmove The QERI Index gained 0.28% and ended yesterday’s session in green, clearing its resistance near the 4,311.0 level. However, the index trimmed its gains after reaching an intraday high of 4,356.52 to close at 4,316.60. Meanwhile, the index has been unable to hold onto its gains above 4,350.0, and is facing stiff resistance. We believe the index could test the 4,400.0 level if it sustains above 4,350.0. On the downside, 4,300.0 may act as a strong support level. Al Meera Consumer Goods Co.: Short-Term – Upmove MERS eventually surpassed the resistance of QR177.50 after moving sideways over the past few days. Notably, volumes were high on the rise, indicating increased optimism among traders. Moreover, both the momentum indicators are moving higher, supporting this bullish sentiment. Thus, traders could consider buying the stock at the current level for a target of the 55-day moving average, with a strict stop loss of QR177.50. Commercial Bank of Qatar: Short-Term – Upmove CBQK cleared the key resistance of QR68.30 after consolidating below it over the past few weeks, which is a positive sign. Moreover, the stock developed a bullish Marubozu candle pattern, indicating a continuation of this upmove. Further, the RSI is in the buy zone, while the MACD is diverging away from the signal line in a bullish manner. We believe the stock may rally further toward the QR69.0-69.50 levels. However, a dip below QR68.30 may result in a pullback. Gulf International Services: Short-Term – Uptrend GISS surged 4.81% and continued to build on its gains, tagging a new high on the back of large volumes. The stock has been on an uptrend mode and is consistently registering strong gains. Moreover, both the momentum indicators are holding strong and show no signs of immediate trend reversal, which suggests the rally has enough steam to accelerate further. We believe the stock may continue its bullish momentum to record new highs.
  2. 2. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst Manager - HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 2 of 2 *These stocks are today’s suggested ideas Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55- day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT. Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels. Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends. Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend. Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices. Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend. Definitions: 1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period. 2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days. 3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance Short Term Long Term First Second First Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 12,990.40 UP UP 12,939.80 12,768.17 13,079.52 13,195.88 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 4,316.60 UP UP 4,311.42 4,247.34 4,350.00 4,444.86 Banks and Financial Services Banks and Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD) 54.50 UP UP 54.00 52.60 55.20 57.30 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD)* 68.60 UP UP 68.30 67.40 69.50 70.00 Doha Bank (DHBK QD) 58.30 UP DOWN 58.10 57.40 59.00 60.00 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 101.50 UP UP 99.50 98.30 102.50 104.00 Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 86.50 UP UP 86.10 85.00 88.00 88.50 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 87.60 UP UP 87.00 85.50 87.70 88.50 Al Khalij Commercial Bank (KCBK QD) 22.60 UP FLAT 22.35 22.00 22.60 23.00 Consumer Goods and Services Consumer G Medicare Group (MCGS QD)* 88.50 UP UP 87.80 86.00 89.00 89.80 Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS QD)* 177.60 UP DOWN 177.50 175.00 180.00 181.60 Industrials Industrials Industries Qatar (IQCD QD) 178.00 UP DOWN 175.50 171.00 178.30 180.00 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 192.30 UP UP 191.50 188.90 193.00 196.00 Gulf International Services (GISS QD)* 109.00 UP UP 104.50 103.50 111.90 114.00 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 56.80 FLAT DOWN 56.10 54.40 57.00 60.60 Real Estate Real Estate Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 41.50 UP UP 41.00 40.10 41.80 42.50 United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 25.15 UP FLAT 24.75 24.50 25.30 26.00 Telecom Telecom Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 133.20 UP DOWN 131.50 130.00 133.90 136.00 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 19.30 UP FLAT 18.75 18.00 19.30 20.00 Transportation Transportat Nakilat (QGTS QD) 23.08 UP FLAT 23.00 22.45 23.60 24.12 Milaha (QNNS QD) 96.50 UP UP 95.10 93.00 96.50 98.30