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8 July Daily technical trader


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8 July Daily technical trader

  1. 1. Page 1 of 2 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER QE Index: Short-Term – Neutral The QE Index moved higher around 49 points (0.39%) to settle above the 12,350.0 level. The index respected the support near 12,300.0 and bounced back to witness a smart rally. However, the index faces its important hurdle at the 12,400.0 level. We believe a close above this level would be a positive development for the index and could set the stage for a higher move. Meanwhile, the 12,350.0 level acts as an intermediary support level for the index. Qatar Insurance: Short-Term – Upmove QATI gained 1.85% and moved higher, clearing the important resistance of QR81.40. The stock is currently sitting exactly on its resistance of QR82.50. We believe if the stock manages to move above this level, it could set up the stage for a further rally. However, any failure to move above QR82.50 could result in consolidation. Meanwhile, the RSI is moving up in a bullish manner, while the MACD is diverging away from the signal line toward the upside. Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Neutral The QERI index rose for the second straight session and gained 0.34% to close at 4,125.71. The index is wedged between 4,148.0 on the upper side and 4,100.0 on the downside over the past few days. Bulls would take charge only if the index manages to clear the 4,148.0 level on a closing basis. However, a decline below 4,100.0 may warrant caution. Meanwhile, traders would be looking for a price rebound ahead of any retreat, given the positive indicators. Gulf International Services: Short-Term – Upmove GISS continued its rally and advanced 0.61%. Since both the momentum indicators are providing bullish signals, traders are likely to witness a further rise. Moreover, the stock has been in an upmove mode over the past few days and is looking strong. We believe the stock may now approach toward QR100.0. Any move above this level will spark additional buying interest, which may push the stock toward QR101.50. However, a dip below QR98.0 may hold its gains. Al Khalij Commercial Bank: Short-Term – Upmove KCBK cleared the resistance of QR22.35 and built on its gains yesterday. Moreover, the stock has been gaining strength over the past few days. We believe the stock may continue its positive momentum and proceed toward QR22.60, which is also in proximity to the 55-day moving average. However, traders need to keep a close watch on QR22.35 for any reversal signs. Meanwhile, both the indicators look strong for a further advance. Qatar Islamic Bank: Short-Term – Upmove QIBK advanced by 1.08% and breached the 55-day moving average. The next resistance is seen at around QR93.90. We believe if the stock manages to cling onto the 55-day moving average, it may continue its rally. However, traders need to exercise caution if the stock declines below that as a dip below may drag the stock to test QR92.0. Meanwhile, both the indicators are moving up, indicating a possibility of an upmove.
  2. 2. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst Manager - HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 2 of 2 *These stocks are today’s suggested ideas Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55- day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT. Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels. Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends. Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend. Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices. Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend. Definitions: 1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period. 2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days. 3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance Short Term Long Term First Second First Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 12,382.21 DOWN DOWN 12,375.03 12,300.00 12,400.00 12,465.50 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 4,125.71 DOWN DOWN 4,100.00 4,065.50 4,148.08 4,211.12 Banks and Financial Services Banks and Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD) 50.20 DOWN DOWN 49.75 48.50 51.00 52.60 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 65.30 UP DOWN 64.92 63.67 65.75 66.30 Doha Bank (DHBK QD) 56.80 DOWN DOWN 56.50 55.80 57.40 58.10 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD)* 93.30 UP UP 92.00 90.70 93.90 95.10 Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 83.40 UP DOWN 83.00 81.70 83.50 86.58 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD)* 82.50 UP UP 81.40 80.00 82.50 83.90 Al Khalij Commercial Bank (KCBK QD)* 22.40 UP FLAT 22.35 21.87 22.60 22.99 Consumer Goods and Services Consumer G Medicare Group (MCGS QD) 85.00 UP FLAT 83.40 81.90 86.00 87.80 Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS QD) 174.20 UP DOWN 173.89 164.00 179.00 180.00 Industrials Industrials Industries Qatar (IQCD QD) 175.50 DOWN DOWN 174.90 173.90 178.30 180.10 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 181.00 DOWN DOWN 178.90 176.27 182.00 185.20 Gulf International Services (GISS QD)* 99.00 UP UP 98.00 97.00 100.00 101.50 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 56.40 DOWN DOWN 56.10 54.40 57.00 60.60 Real Estate Real Estate Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 39.00 FLAT FLAT 38.40 38.05 40.10 41.00 United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 24.59 UP DOWN 24.00 23.42 24.75 25.30 Telecom Telecom Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 129.40 DOWN DOWN 128.00 125.80 130.00 133.90 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 17.83 DOWN DOWN 17.70 16.89 18.00 18.75 Transportation Transportat Nakilat (QGTS QD) 22.00 DOWN DOWN 21.80 21.45 22.19 22.45 Milaha (QNNS QD) 93.70 UP DOWN 93.10 92.00 95.10 96.50